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-\ A D-AO07 844
CARMONETTE. VOLUME II. DATA PREPARATION AND OUTPUT GUIDE
Gary S. Colonna, et al
General Research Corporation
_J Prepared for:
Army Concepts Analysis Agency
November 1974
DISTRIBUTED BY:
National Technical Information Service U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
UNCLASSIFIED
REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE READ INSTRUCTIONS
BEFORE COMPLETING FORM
t. REPORT NUMBER 2- GOVT ACCESSION NO.
OAD-CR-73 Vol II
1. RECIPIENT’S CATALOG NUMBER
Äl>-Aoo1M^ 4. TITLE (md Submit)
CARMONETTE
VOL II DATA PREPARATION AND OUTPUT GUIDE
». TYPE OF REPORT 8 ’ERIOO COVERED
Final
1 April to 15 November 74 6. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUMBER
7. AUTHORffJ
Gary S. Colonna
Richard G. Williams
8. CONTRACT OR GRANT NUMBER!*)
DAAG39-74-C-0128
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
General Research Corporation
Operations Analysis Division
Westgate Research Park, McLean, Va. 2210
10. PROGRAM ELEMENT. PROJECT, TASK AREA « WORK UNIT NUMBERS
1 ___
It. CONTROLLING OFFICE NAME AND ADORES
US Army Concepts Analysis Agency
8120 Woodmont Ave., ^¡liesda, Md. 20014
IZ. REPORT DATE
November 1974 IJ. NU““” "F PAGES ¢.,/ ,
TV monitoring AGENCY NAME t AOORESSfll dlllmrtnl from Conlrollln« Olllcc, IS. SECURITY CLASS, (of IM* ,•pot!) ^
Unclassified
“is« DECLASSIFICATION/'DOWNGRADING SCHEDULE
IS. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (of (Mo ftoporl)
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited.
IT. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (of (Ao obolrocl onlofod In Bloc» 20, Il «llfofonr from Rwpurl)
18. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES . Reproduced by NATIONAL TECHNICAL INFORMATION SERVICE
US Department of Commerce Springfield, VA. 22151
IS. KEY WORDS (Continuo on ro.or.e old» If nocooiary *>d Idonllly by block nun.hot}
CARMONETTE Post Processor Terrain
Gamer's Inputs Preprocessor Units
Input Forms Sensors Weapons
Mobility Target-Killer Array
20 ABSTRACT (Continuo on rovotoo «Id# II noceoooty ond Identify by block number)
A gamer's manual that describes the sources and handling of
data required by the simulation; the interpretation of preprocessor
outputs; the operation of the battle model; and the interpretation
of game outputs.
-—---—.. rn ru.»TO
DD F°«M 1473 EDITION OF t NOV «» IS OBSOLETE «
I SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PACE Ü.I. Enl.r.cO
"PWHPlPliiliiP
DOCUMENTATION
CAA-D-7 4-11
CARMONETTE
VOLUME II
DATA PREPARATION AND OUTPUT GUIDE
NOVEMBER 1974
n pr.
; ^ f*“«»
¡ nn nrprz “i f
APR ItMSfft
PREPARED BY ^ b- - liai] D EÍIij
GENERAL RESEARCH CORPORATION
OPERATIONS ANALYSIS DIVISION
WESTGATE RESEARCH PARK
MCLEAN, VIRGINIA 22101
UNDER CONTRACT DAAG39-74-C-0128 FOR
US ARMY CONCEPTS ANALYSIS AGENCY
8120 WOODMONT AVENUE
BETHESDA, MARYLAND 20014
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC
RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION
UNLIMITED
KÉÜÉitt
CONTENTS
Part I - Overview.1
Introduction . 1
Primary Activities.2
Terrain (3)-Weapons (4)—Sensors (5)—
Mobility (5)-Units (6)
Part II - Input Forms and Detailed Preparation Instructions • • 13
Introduction. 13
General Description of the Illustrative Battle.13
STEP 1 - Design of the Experiment.16
STEP 2 - Preliminary Considerations.17
Worksheets 7)—Game Parameters (24)
STEP 3 - Terrain Data.28
Terrain Characteristics, TERRAIN 1 (28)
Cover and Concealment, TERRAIN 2 (34)
STEP 4 - Weapons Data.39
Weapon Characteristics, WEAPON 1 (39),
Weapons Accuracy, WEAPON 2 (46),
Kill Probability and Ammunition Selection, WEAPON 3 (58),
Probability of Killing Infantry and Vehicles with
Fragmenting Dual Purpose Munitions, WEAPON 4 (63),
Target Lists, WEAPON 5 (66),
STEP 5 - Sensor Data.•.72
General Sensors. 72
Solid Angle (72)—Information States (72) —
Transition Matrix (73)
Sensor Class Tables, SENSOR 1 (77)
Probability of Not Detecting a Target, SENSOR 2 (79)
Probability of Detecting But Not Pinpointing
a Target, SENSOR 3 (80)
Probability of Detecting and Pinpointing
a Target, SENSOR 4 (81)
Probability That a Target is Still
Pinpointed, SENSOR 5 (83)
Probability That a Pinpointed Target
is Lost, SENSOR 6 (84)
Probability That a Detected Target
is Lost, SENSOR 7 (85)
• Probability of Detecting That a Target
is Dead, SENSOll 8 (86)
iii
STEP 5 - Sensor Data 72
General Sensors (cont'd)
Probability of Erroneously Pinpointing
a Firing Target, SENSOR 9 (88)
Probability of Pinpointing a Firing Target
Given Erroneous Pinpoint Information, SENSOR 10 (89)
Special Sensors..
Image Intensifier Data, FORMS 37A and 37B (91) Background, FORM 38 (95)
Target, FORM 39 (96)
Environmental Data, FORM 40 (99)
Rada1- Characteristics, FORM 41 (99)
STEP 6 - Mobility Data.100
Movement Doctrines, MOBILITY 1 (101)
Ground Mobility Table, MOBILITY 2 (104)
Altitude Data, MOBILITY 3 (106)
Air Mobility Data, MOBILITY 4 (106)
Ordered Altitude, MOBILITY 5 (106)
Ordered Movement Rates, MOBILITY 6 (106)
STEP 7 - Unit Data.109
Task Organization, UNIT 1 (112)
Unit Equipment-Blue, UNIT 2 (115)
Unit Equipment-Red, UNIT 2 (117)
Unit Description-Blue, UNIT 3 (120)
Unit Description-Red, UNIT 3 (121)
Danger State Table, UNIT 4 (125)
Threshold for Response, UNIT 5 (127)
Out of Ammunition Orders, UNIT 6 (129)
Escape Points, UNIT 7 (129)
Probability of Indicating Death, UNIT 8 (129)
CARM0NETTE Commands (131)
Orders, UNIT 9 (136)
First Order and Starting Location, UNIT 10 (139)
III - Output and Data Diagnostics.. 141
Introduction . 141 Terrain Generator . 141
LAND Deck (142)— Final Listing of Terrain Data (145)
Preprocessor . 145
Transactions and Illegalities (148)—Data Arrays (150)
Technique for Interpreting Packed Arrays (153)
180 Game Output .
Sources of Output Information (180)
Non-Optional Reports (180)
Chronological Cumulative Casualties Report (181)
Target Kills by Weapon Type Report (182)
Operational Statistics Report (183)
Ammunition Expenditure Report (184)
Treatment Summary Target Kill Report (185)
Average Ammunition Expenditure by Weapon
Type Report (186)
Optional Reports (187)
Event History Message (188)
Examples of Game Output
Selective History Report (196)
Average Ammunition Expenditure by Weapon
Type bv lime Interval Report (197)
Range Interval Post Processor (198)
Run Parameters and Output Option Report (199)
Dismounting and Remounting (201)
Actions of Supporting Units (202)
Appendix A - Input Listing ..20/
Appendix B - Considerations Relating to Number of Iterations
Required for a Single CARMONETTE Treatment . • • 235
Appendix C - Glossary ..243
Figures
1. General Situation.14
2. Special Situation.15
3. Organization for Blue 1.18
4. GAME Entries.25
5. CARMONETTE Battlefield.29
6. TERRAIN 1 Entries.33
7. TERRAIN 2 Entries.35
8. WEAPON 1 Entries.42
9. WEAPON 2 Entries.53
10. Logic for Determining Probability of a Kill
Given a Hit.57
11. WEAPON 3 Entries.60
12. WEAPON 4 Entries.65
13. WEAPON 5 Entries.68
14. Detection Probability.74
15. Detection Probability Curve with Ranges
and Solid Angles.75
V
Figures cont'd
16.
17.
18.
19.
20. 21. 22. 23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
61.
SENSOR
SENSOR
SENSOR
SENSOR
SENSOR
SENSOR
SENSOR
Entries
Entries
Entries
Entries
Entries
Entries
Entries SENSOR 8 Entries
SENSOR 9 Entries
SENSOR 10 Entries
Example of FORM 37A and FORM 37B
System Modulation Transfer Functio
S-20 Photocathode Sensitivity, Q(A FORM 38 Background •
FORM 39 Target
Forms 40 and 41 Entries
MOBILITY 1 Entries .
Definition of Slope Class MOBILITY 2 Entries . .
MOBILITY 3, 4, 5, and 6 Entries UNIT
UNIT
UNIT
UNIT
UNIT
UNIT
UNIT
(MTF
Deck
Entries
Blue Entries
Red Entries •
Blue Entries
Red Entries •
Entries
Entries
UNIT 6, 7, and 8 Entries
UNIT 9 Entries
UNIT 10 Entries •
Terrain Generator Detected Errors
Organization of the LAND Deck
Example of a Card fron: the LAND
Printout of Final Terrain Data
Transaction Record and Data Errors
Example of Arrays KR, KWPAT, KWPLT, KWS Example of Array KSIG •
Example of Arrays KPKH and KBURN Example of Array KPKIH
Example of Array KCTP ....
Assignment of Units to Target and
Vulnerability Classes •
Example of Arrays KSVR and KSVRR
Example of Array KUDW ....
Example of Arrays KNTR, LOG, KNTB, LAMW, and MAN -
Example of Arrays KACX, KHQ, KTCJ, LGM, IFIRE, IMOB,
KEY, LTFI, LTF2, LTF3, LTHF, LTHN, LTM2, LTM3,
LTT2, LTT3, LTZ1, LTZ2, LTZ3, KASQ, and JEXIT
Example of Arrays KSLOPE, KDMTIM, LTG, and MMTG •
nd LWAR
77
79
80
81
83
84
85
86 88 89
91
92
93
95
96
99
101 102 104
106
112 115
117
120 121 125
127
129
136
139
143
144
146
147
149
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
vi
Figures cent'd
62. Example of Arrays MOVPRB, INCTDN, LACTT, MMTA,
and LTA.169
63. Example of Arrays KONI, K0V1, and K0V2.170
64. Example of Arrays KGTEST, KSA, ISCAN, IP4, KDP13,
KDP34, KATIME, and KCTIME.171
65. Example of Computed Effective Solid Angle
Thresholds for Non-Firing Targets . 172
66. Example of Computed Effective Solid Angle
Thresholds for Firing Weapons . 173
67. Example of Arrays LPDC, LP12, LP13, LP14, LP21,
LP23, KP24, LP31, and LP32.174
68. Example of Array CCSU.175
69. Example of Array MISN.176
70. Example of Probability of Hit vs Range Arrays .... 177
71. Example of Initial Cover, Concealment and
Line of Sight Report.178
72. Example of Array« JATRIB, JACHAR(l), JCNTL(9),
and JCNTL(ll).179
73. Example of Chronological Cumulative Casualties
Report.181
74. Example of Target Kills by Weapon Type Report .... 182
75. Example of Operational Statistics Report.183
76. Examole of Ammunition Expenditure Report.184
77. Example of Treatment Summary Target Kill Report • • • 185
78. Example of Average Ammunition Expenditure by
Weapon Type Report.186
79. Example of Chronological History Report Messages
80. Example of Selective History Report . 196
81. Example of Average Ammunition Expenditure by
Weapon Type by Time Interval Report.. 197
82. Example of the Range Interval Post Processor .... 198
83. Example of Run Parameters and Output Option Report . . 199
84. Example of Dismounting and Remounting.201
85. Example of Actions of Supporting Units . 202
86. Example of Firer Being Killed During Flight
of a Guided Missile.. 206
Bl. Number of Replications with the Same Outcomes .... 237
B2. Variability of CARMONETTE, C0MCAP II, Treatment 4201
Total Blue Vehicles Killed-Beginning Strength 59 . . 238
B3. Percent Difference of Running Mean and Mean After
30 Replications (Total Blue vehicles killed) • . • 240
B4. Number of Replications with the Same Outcomes . . . . 241
B5. Variability of CARMONETTE, COMCAP II, Treatment 4201
(30 Red tanks - 6 COBRA).242
vii
Tables
1. CARMONETTE Conunands.H 2. Weapons List..
3. Organization List, Blue 1.20
4. Organization List, Red 1.21
5. Unit Classification List.22
6. Relation Between Grid Size, Unit Size, Force Size,
and Zone of Action.26
7. Working Table for Cover and Concealment Computations 36
8. Probability of Hitting a Stationary 7½ by 7^Ft
Target Corresponding to a Given Miss Distance
Measured in Meters .47 9. Hit Probability Estimates for Main Gun Fired From a
Moving Blue Tank at a Stationary, Vertical,
7½ X 7is-Ft Target, APDS Round.49
10. Probability of a Kill (M or F) Given a Hit vs Red
Tank, Exposed (Averaged Over Attack Angles),
APDS Round.49
11. Working Table, Hit and Kill Probabilities, Weapon
Number 13, 1st Round, Firer Moving, Target
Stationary, Firer Normal . 50
12. Probability of Hit vs Range, Weapon Type 13,
Ammunition Type I, Target Radius 1.3.56
13. Background Reflectance . 97
14. Target Reflectance . 97
15. CARMONETTE Commands . 131
16. Technique for Interpreting Packed Arrays Troop
Carrier Unit, Blue.153
17. FORTRAN Array Names and Input Data Sources . 156
18. Input Data Source and FORTRAN Array Name.157
19. Event History Message, Part II.188
viii
Part I
OVERVIEW
INTRODUCTION
This volume of the CARMONETTE documentation is a user's guide to
the preparation of input and a description of the output. It is assumed
that the personnel who are responsible for data preparation fully under¬
stand the material in Vol I. Because of the complex interactions of
various elements of the ta, the data forms must be filled out with
utmost care. A strong point is made of the need for detailed planning
of the experiments. The temptation to start filling out forms and mak¬
ing runs on the computer is overwhelming but must be resisted if meaning¬
ful results are to be obtained. CARMONETTE, like many complex simulations,
is a voracious consumer of computer time, and if incorrectly or mistakenly
used will produce meaningless results. The jargon of the computer world
"garbage in, garbage out" (GIGO) applies.
This volume is organized to assist the analyst in data preparation.
The body contains a survey of the concepts and interactions of the var¬
ious elements of data. If only a brief review of the body precedes the
execution of any of the forms, confusion is almost guaranteed. Detailed
study of these concepts and interactions is recommended before forms are
even consulted.
Part II contains detailed information on filling out each input
form and uses a sample game as a vehicle. The forms to be used have
certain items preprinted and are in the standard 80-column card format.
Part III describes the data diagnostics produced by the preproces¬
sors, and the battle model and post processor outputs.
Appendix A is a listing of game inputs.
1
Appendix B discusses considerations relating to the number of itera¬
tions required for a single treatment.
Appendix C is a glossary of terms, which attempts to relate the
short phrases used to describe some of the data to the military vocabu¬
lary assumed of the user. It also indicates where the term is discussed
in Part II and on which input forms it is used.
Before beginning to fill out any of the forms used to input data
to the simulation, several preliminary steps should be completed. The
user should analyze the problem, isolate the important variables, decide
on the measure of effectiveness, and, in short, develop a rational founda¬
tion for the data needs. Much care should be taken on these points be¬
cause many data items will requi-e judgment that must be tempered in
equal measure by the military reality being simulated and the scientific
problem being solved. **
The first thing to do before filling out the forms is to design
the experiment. The design of the experiment must specify the various
terrains to be used, the task organizations, the equipment variations,
the tactical situations, posture of the forces, time of day, weather,
and the specification of the output desired. The experimental design is
not complete until the method of analysis has been completely specified.
The method of analysis, the number of variables, the number of levels of
each variable, and the acceptable tolerance of error together with esti¬
mates of variance of the results are required to determine the number of
replications of each treatment to be run.
There are a number of game parameters used in the simulation that
have no analogy in real combat. These data are needed as a means of
bookkeeping and of ensuring continuity of action and will be discussed
in detail in Part II.
PRIMARY ACTIVITIES
Since CARMONETTE is a simulation of ground combat, it is primarily /
concerned with movement, target acquisition, and the firing of weapons
2
:...........
and assessment of their effects. The input data required can be cate¬
gorized under five general headings: terrain, weapons, sensors, mobility,
and units.
Terrain
The properties of terrain on which the battle is played are de¬
scribed explicitly in terms of:
(a) Elevation
(b) Height of vegetation
(c) Trafficability of roads
(d) Cross-country trafficability
(e) Cover
(f) Concealment
The average elevation is used in determining slopes and lines of
sight. The average height of vegetation is added to the elevation of
the intervening terrain to determine intervisibility.
Trafficability is combined with the slope to give the maximum move¬
ment rate for units. Cross-country trafficability depends on che condi¬
tion of the soil and any trees or brush that might hinder movement. Traf¬
ficability of roads depends- on the quality of the road.
Cover and concealment are used to indicate the exposed area of an
element. Tables are used to convert target size to exposed area for the
varying degrees of cover or concealment.
CAHMONETTE defines net cover as the capability of dismounted troops
to find protection against fragments from exploding rounds. Net cover is
differentiated from cover by the fact that cover gives protection from
trajectory non-fragmenting ammunition, whereas net cover gives
protection from overhead artillery bursts and flat trajectory fragmenting
ammunition. The probability of killing dismounted troops, given a hit in
the unit's area by a fragmenting round, depends on the weapon type, ammu¬
nition type, the reaction to fire of the troops (if any), and the net
cover.
3
Weapons
A total of 56 weapon types may be played in CARMONETTE. These
weapons are classified into three general groups: 12 may be artillery and
mortars; 22 direct fire, fragmenting; and 22 direct fire, non-fragment¬
ing. Each weapon may have two ammunition types.
For each type of weapon to be simulated, the following data are
required:
(a) The minimum and maximum effective range (in meters),
(b) The minimum number of men required to serve the weapon,
(c) The mean and standard deviation (in minutes) of the time to aim the weapon initially,
(d) The mean and standard deviation (in minutes) of the time
required to reaim the weapon at the same target after the weapon has been fired,
(e) The mean and standard deviation (in minutes) of the time
required to reload the weapon after firing,
(f) The velocity of a round in meters per second. This should
not be the muzzle velocity but the average velocity of a
round over its anticipated range of employment during the game.
A met ,ure of the impact area is required for the artillery and mor¬
tars. This area is the average area covered by a volley of one round
from each piece in the firing unit.
The number of rounds that are fired each time one of the weapon
types is fired is referred to as "rounds per trigger pull." In most
cases this number is one. In the event that the normal mode of fire for
a weapon is burst fire, then the number of rounds per trigger pull is
indicated. The neutralization weight of each round fired is also indi¬
cated; see Vol I for a detailed discussion of neutralization.
In order to simulate the accuracy of each weapon, CARMONETTE con¬
siders the total tactical standard deviation (SD) as a function of range
and the following factors: weapon type, first or subsequent round at same
target, previous round hit or miss, firer moving or stationary, target
moving or stationary, whether or not the firer is partially suppressed
by hostile fire, and ammunition type.
4
Kill probabilities given a hit, and target priorities are also input
for each weapon.
Sensors
A total of 36 sensors may be used by the simulated forces. The
sensors are subdivided into six classes of six types each. Three special
classes represent unaided eyes and binoculars (Class 1), passive night
vision devices (Class 2), and radars (Class 4); end three classes can be
used for any sensor. The model represents information about non-firing
targets as being in one of four states:
(1) Target's location unknown,
(2) Target known to be located in a certain area,
(3) Target erroneously pinpointed within an area,
(4) Target correctly pinpointed.
Inputs required for each sensor to be used are:
(a) Range,
(b) Probability of completely losing target information, given
that line of sight is lost,
(c) Probabilities of improving information state,
(d) Probabilities of losing information state.
A
Information concerning firing targets does not include State 2 and does
not require probabilities of losing information state.
Mobility
In addition to dismounted infantry, CARMONETTE plays four types of
ground vehicles and three types of helicopters. Input data includes:
(a) Doctrines that describe how a unit will act under varying
conditions of cover and target availability,
(b) Rates at which ground and air units move,
(c) The time required for infantry units to dismount and
remount from ground or air personnel carriers,
(d) Altitudes at which aircraft operate.
5
Units
CARMONETTE forces are divided into not more than 48 units on each
side. A unit may have a maximum of 63 killable elements. These elements
can be destroyed one by one. The elements of each unit must have the same
mobility, vulnerability, location, and target detection capability. When
a unit moves, all its elements ij^e together. When a unit is fired cn,
all its elements are equally vulnerable. When a single element of any
unit is detected, the entire unit is considered to be detected. Also,
when one element of a unit detects an enemy unit, ai? other elements are
considered to have detected this enemy.
A unit may be assigned up to four groups of weapons. For example,
a tank may have a main gun, an air defense machine gun, and a coaxial
machine gun; a rifle squad may have two light antitank weapons, one
machine gun, one grenade launcher, and five rifles.
Two units are required to describe the characteristics of troops
mounted in carriers. The carrier is one unit, and the infantry squad is
a second unit. The carrier unit retains the number of men designated as
drivers and its weapons when the troop unit dismounts.
Such characteristics as the area occupied may depend on whether the
troop unit is mounted in the carrier unit. The horizontal area that a
unit occupies when it is deployed is used to compute hit probabilities
for fragmenting munitions.
The visible area of the largest element of the unit is used for
detection calculations. The height of the unit's sensors above the
ground is used for line of sight calculations.
Certain units may be ordered to hold fire until they are quite
close to the enemy or until fired on. If a unit is given such orders,
once it opens fire it will continue to search for and fire at targets,
even though all targets withdraw beyond the hold-fire range.
Each unit is described by indexes for target class, vulnerability
class, element-size class, mobility class, fire-response class, and sen¬
sor class. These indexes are some of the data that are requited by the
6
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simulation to provide for the bookkeeping and for representing the com¬
bat in a realistic manner; they have no analogue in actual combat.
Although the number of indexes available in the simulation for each of
the above classes is fixed, it is not necessary that all be used.
Target Class. Each unit in the battle presents a target of certain
value to opposing forces. The target-class index is used in the target
list as the basis of selection of units as targets for different weapon
types and in the danger-state table to be discussed in the section on
vulnerability class.
The two factors associated with the assignment of a unit to a tar¬
get class are the unit's vulnerability to the various weapons and the
firepower possessed by the unit. For example, an armored personnel car¬
rier mounting an antitank guided missile would be a more desirable target
than a similar carrier without the missile. Both carriers have the same
vulnerability to the tank gun, but the one with the missile is a greater
threat to the tank; therefore the carriers should be assigned to differ¬
ent target classes.
Each non-artillery weapon type on each side in the battle is assigned
one, two, or three target lists. A unit's orders indicate which list to
use during different phases of the battle. When a unit's orders indicate
targets of opportunity, it looks for targets indicated on the list speci¬
fied in its current order. Artillery units firing scheduled fires are
not controlleu by target lists. When artillery units fire "on call,"
they follow the priority indicated for their command unit. There are
sixteen target classes in CARMONETTE.
Vulnerability Class. The probability of kill given a hit on a tar¬
get is a function of the vulnerability of the target and of the firer's
ammunition and weapon type. Whenever several units have identical or
similar vulnerabilities, they are grouped into classes, and the vulner¬
ability class index is used to determine the probability of kill by each
weapon and ammunition. The vulnerability class index is also used to
indicate the preferred ammunition type for each weapon type against each
7
unit. Hence, if two units are composed of tanks with different armor,
they would be placed in different vulnerability classes as are armored
personnel carriers and tanka,.
The danger-state table relates the characteristics of target class
and vulnerability class for each of three range intervals. Two critical
ranges, R1 and R2 serve to divide the targets available to a given unit
into three separate groups: those closer than Rl, those between R1 and
R2, and those farther away than R2. In each of these range intervals a
amt can place a different weight on its own vulnerability to the weapons
of each target class. For example, if Rl is 300 m and R2 is 1000m, a
90mm recoilless rifle unit might be seriously vulnerable to an infantry
platoon in the 0-300 m range, moderately vulnerable in the 300-1000 m
range, and relatively invulnerable for ranges beyond 1000 m. Twelve
vulnerability classes are provided.
g-Lgrce.Ht-Size Class. Each unit is classified according to the size
of its principle element(s). The element-size class is used to determine
the probability of detection and the probability of hitting the element.
The element-size class of a unit is determined by two criteria: (a) the
largest visible area that any element presents to a sensor, and (b) the
greatest vulnerable area that any element presents to a direct-fire
weapon.
The element-size class is used with the concealment available to
determine the exposed visible area of an element of a target unit for
determining the probability of detection. The concealment is determined
by estimating the fraction of an element of each element-size class that
would be hidden by trees, brush, ditches, etc. The exposed visible
area of a target thus determined is then used in detection calculations.
The element-size class is also used with the cover available to
determine the exposed vulnerable area of an element of a target unit for
determining the probability of hit by a direct-fire weapon. The cover
available is found by estimating the fraction of an element of each
element-size class that would be covered from direct-fire weapons. The
8
resultant exposed vulnerable area is used in the calculation of hit prob¬
ability as described previously under weapon accuracy. CABMONETTE has
ten element-size indices.
Mobility, Class. The mobility class index is used to describe a
unit’s rate of movement in terrain of various trafficability and road
conditions for ground units or climb and dive angle for air units. Two
units with similar mobility characteristics should be assigned to the
same mobility class. It must be remembered that all elements of the same
unit must have the same mobility characteristics, since a unit»does not
separate. Terrain trafficability is determined by the slope of a hill,
either up or down, and the condition of the soil or road connecting the
tT-»o grid squares to be crossed.
In addition to dismounted infantry, there are four ground and three
air mobility classes.
Fire-Response Class. The fire-response class is used to describe
a unit s reaction to hostile fire. Thresholds are used to indicate the
response of each of these classes to fire. All classes may be partially
suppressed by direct or by indirect fire; dismounted infantry and un¬
armored vehicles may be pinned down by either direct or indirect fire or
both. Helicopters react only to direct fire and take evasive action by
dropping to treetop level. If the helicopter is guiding a missile to a
target, it will not drop to treetop level until after the missile impacts.
When a unit is partially suppressed, its aim and reaim time are
increased, its movement rate is decreased, and the accuracy of its weapons
Sud sensors is reduced. A pinned-down unit does not move, conduct sur¬
veillance, or fire its weapon.
The neutralization interval is the period of time over which in¬
coming rounds will be considered to affect the behavior of a unit. The
reaction of a unit to hostile fire will be determined by comparing the
thresholds for response with the actual number of rounds (adjusted by
the neutrlaization weighting factors) fired during the neutralization
interval into the area occupied by the unit.
9
The fire-response class is also used to determine whether the unit
is infantry or a soft vehicle, and if so, the model uses different kill
probabilities for determining probability of kill, if given a hit, by
fragmenting ammunition.
The fire-response classes represented in CARMONETTE are: dismounted
infantry, open vehicles, light armor, heavy armor, and helicopters.
Sensor Class. Sensor class indexes are assigned to differentiate
the unit's ability to detect targets under similar conditions. The sen¬
sor class index is used together with the size of the target, the unit's
response to fire (if any), the unit's current level of information about
the target, and the target motion (if any), to determine the probability
of gain or loss of target informal ion. A unit that can call artillery
can do so if it knows a target is located in a certain grid square. A
unit can engage by direct fire only those targets whose locations have
been pinpointed, whether correctly or not. There are six sensor classes
in CARMONETTE.
Orders. Each unit must be given detailed orders that will control
its actions throughout the simulated battle. When a unit is killed, it
simply stops following its orders. Each unit must be directed to move,
stay, or fire by means of a preprogrammed set of instructions. The basic
set of orders is listed in Table 1. There are three fundamental types
of orders: move, stay, and skip. Fire orders are combined with move and
stay orders.
10
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11
Part II
INPUT FORMS AND DETAILED PREPARATION INSTRUCTIONS
INTRODUCTION
This part of Volume II could well be titled, "The CARMONETTE Cook
Book." It contains a step-by-step procedure for preparing the input data,
using a hypothetical illustrativ; battle. All input numbers used describe
artificial vehicles, weapons, and rates to keep this part unclassified.
The input forms need not ’'m filled out in the sequence presented, however
a conscious effort has been made to discuss them in a logical sequence.
GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF THE ILLUSTRATIVE BATTLE
The illustrative problem is one of a set of simulations conducted
to evaluate the combat potential of two proposed antiarmor mixes within
a mechanized battalion. The general tactical situation is as follows:
Red forces crossed the East-West German border in early summer, with the
mission of securing crossing sites over the Rhine River. Blue forces are
conducting a delaying action and are presently deployed along LINE BRAVO,
see Figure 1. The area to be used in the illustrative problem is shown
in the inset and is also shown in more detail in Fig. 2.
Preceding page blank
.. mm
STEP 1 - DESIGN OF THE EXPERIMENT
As previously stated, the purpose of the experiment is to evaluate
the combat potential of two p-oprsed antiarmor mixes within a mechanized
battalion. The measure of effectiveness is a comparison of losses suf¬
fered by Blue and by Red when the Red forces have lost 30, 50, and 70%
of its vehicles. The treatments (combination of levels of factors) must
now be defined. Intelligence predictions show that the Red force may be
equipped with either of two types of armored personnel carriers. An in¬
spection of maps of the area of interest shows that there are three gene¬
ral types of terrain over which the battle may be fought. The variables
are described in the accompanying tabulation by the factor and their
levels.
Factor Level
Blue force 2
Red force 2
Terrain 3
A complete factorial experiment is to be performed, therefore 12 (2*2*3)
treatments are required to pr lit all main factors and interactions to be
analyzed for significant effects'. Any of several statistical techniques
may be used to determine if a sufficient number of replications of the
experiment exist to provide the desired level of confidence.
16
STEP 2 - PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS
Worksheets
A series of work sheetss which are developed from a study of the
forces to be gamed, is very helpful in developing a rational foundation
for the data needs. These work sheets are also useful when filling out
the input forms. The organization of one of the Blue companies to be
evaluated is shown in Fig. 3. The organization of the other Blue com¬
pany is similar, however it does not have a weapons squad in the rifle
platoons. Each rifle squad has a medium antitank weapon (MAW) in addi¬
tion to its two light antitank weapons (LAW), and the two AT squads in
the weapons platoon are nrmed with different heavy antitank weapons
(HAW). The supporting weapons received from higher headquarters are
identical. They are: 2 HAWs, 5 tanks, and 2 attack helicopters. One
heavy mortar platoon, 2 batteries of medium howitzers, and one battery
of heavy howitzers are available to provide fire support. This same
type of information should also be collected for the two Red forces, and
then all the data is combined into the following work sheets:
1. Weapons list
2. Organization lists
3. Unit classification list
As stated previously, there are 56 weapon types available in
CARMONETTE. The weapons to be played in this investigation are assigned
as shown in Table 2.
Two of the four organization lists are. shown in Tables 3 and 4.
The Unit Classification List is shown in Table 5.
17
........... ............... ...
Table 2
WEAPONS LIST
1. 2. 3.
4. 5.
6. 7.
8. 9.
10. 11. 12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20. 21. 22. 23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
Artillery
and mortars
Blue medium mortar
Blue heavy mortar
Red heavy mortar
Red light howitzer
Red heavy howitzer
Blue medium howitzer
Blue heavy howitzer
Direct fire
Nonfragmentation
Direct fire
fragmentation
Blue tank gun
Red tank gun
Red APC gun
Red AD vs helo
Red AD vs ground
Blue helo G/L
Blue helo auto cannon
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
Blue HAW 1
Blue helo HAW
Red ground HAW
Red APC HAW
Red HAW
Blue HAW 2
Blue MAW
Blue LAW
Red LAW
Blue APC HMG
Blue tank HMG
Red APC HMG
Red tank HMG
Both tank LMG
Red APC LMG
Both ground LMG
Blue helo minigun
Both rifle
Red shoulder fired AD missile
19
Table 3
ORGANIZATION LIST, BLUE 1
1. Squad APC
2. Rifle squad
3. Squad APC
4. Rifle squad
5. Squad APC
6. Rifle squad
7. MAW team
8. MAW team
9. Squad APC
10. Rifle squad
11. Squad APC
12. Rifle squad
13. Squad APC
14. Rifle squad
15. MAW team
16. MAW team
17. Squad APC
18. Rifle squad
19. Squad APC
20. Rifle squad
21. Squad APC
22. Rifle squad
23. MAW team
24. MAW team
29.
30. Tank
Tank
31. Tank
32. Tank
33. Tank
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
Atk helo
Atk helo
Hv How Btry (4)
Med How Btry (6)
Med How Btry (6)
Hv Mort Pit (4)
Med Mort Sec (3)
25. HAW
26. HAW
27. HAW
28. HAW
20
Table 4
ORGANIZATION LIST, RED 1
1. 2. 3.
4.
5.
6.
4 APC
Rifle Pit* & Co HW
3 APC
Rifle Pit
3 APC
Rifle Pit
7.
8. 9.
10. 11. 12.
4 APC
Rifle Pit & Co HQ
3 APC
Rifle Pit
3 APC
Rifle Pit
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
4 APC
Rifle Pit & Co HQ
3 APC
Rifle Pit
3 APC
Rifle Pit
19.
20. 21.
3 Tanks
4 Tanks
3 Tanks
22. HAW
23. HAW
24. HAW
*3 LAW, 4 LMG, 17 Rifles
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
Gnd HAW
Gnd HAW
AD (SP)
AD (SP)
AD (SP)
AD (SP)
AD msl
AD msl
AD msl
AD msl
AD msl
AD msl
AD msl
AD msl
AD msl
Hv How Btry (6)
Lt How Btry (6)
Lt How Btry (6)
Lt How'Btry (6)
Hv Mort Btry (6)
21
■maiMa .
WWWBPffl
1 2 3
4
5
6 7
8 9
10 11 12 13
14
15
16
1 2 3
4
5
6 7
8 9
10 11 12
Table 5
UNIT CLASSIFICATION LIST
BLUE
Target Class
Tank
APC
HAW 1
HAW 2
MAW
Rifle squad
Attack helo
RED
Tank
APC 1
APC 2
HAW
HAW-Ground mount
Rifle squad
AD missile— shoulder fired
AD (SP)
Arty Arty
Vulnerability Class
Tank
APC
Arty
HAW 1
HAW 2, MAW
Rifle squad
Tank
APC 2
APC 1
AD(SP), HAW
Arty, HAW-Ground, msl
Rifle squad
Attack helo
Survivability of troops from an APC which is killed
22
MiianiMHittfli
Table 5 cont'd
BLUE RED
Element Size
0 1 2 3
4 5
6 7
8 9
1.0 0.5
R
1.9
1.8 1.6 1.5
1.4
1.3
0.6 0.4
Tank
Arty
APC, HAW 1
7½ X 7%-ft tgt,
attack helo
HAW 2, MAW
Fullv exposed man
APC 2
Tank
APC 1, AD(SP)
HAW, Arty
AD msl, ground HAW
Fully exposed man
Mobility Class
0 1
2 3
4
5
6 7
Dismtd trps Rifle squad
Tracked vehs Tank, APC, HAW 1 & 2,
MAW, Arty
Wheeled vehs
Rifle squad
Tank, APC 1 & 2, AD(SP),
msl
HAW, HAW-Ground, Arty
Attack helos
•Fire Response Class
1 Dismtd trps
2 Soft vehs
3 Lt armor
4 Hv armor
5 Helos
Rifle squad
HAW 2, MAW
AFC, HAW 1, Arty
Tank
Atk helo
Rifle squad
HAW-Ground, AD msl, Arty
APC 1 & 2, HAW, AD(SP)
Tank
Sensors
51 Eyeballs
52 Binoculars
53 Attack helos
54 AD(SP)
55
56
23
Game Parameters
Several of the parameters used by the model for bookkeeping purposes
and to ensure continuity of action are entered on the first data card.
These parameters are discussed below and are entered as shown in Fig. 4.
Grid Size. There is no definite way of determining the proper grid
size for a CARMONETTE simulation of combat. Some guidelines can be pre¬
sented and the user advised as to the restrictions that are placed on a
free choice of grid size. As a guide the grid size should be as small
as practicable. However, the grid size must be large enough to contain
the battle being simulated. The design of the simulation permits a battle¬
field size that is a maximum of 60 by 63 grid squares. In addition the
restriction on the number of units on a side requires that each force
being simulated be divided into no more than 48 weapon units. The simu¬
lation does not restrict the number of units that may be in a grid square
at one time, however it is unusual for more than two or three units to
be in a square at the same time. Following the above reasoning. Table 6
shows the relationship between grid size, unit size, force size, and zone
of action. This table is only a rough guide and does not preclude other
grid, unit, or force sizes if they satisfy the needs of the problem. A
grid size of 100 meters is appropriate for this investigation. The grid
size in meters is entered in columns 6 through 9 of the GAME card, there¬
fore 100 is entered in columns 7, 8, and 9. If no grid size is entered,
the program will set it equal to 100 meters.
Suppressive Fire Area. If a unit is ordered to fire into a speci¬
fic grid square (see the third command in Table 1), the area from which
it selects targets can be increased to include adjacent grid squares.
This increase is accomplished by use of the "suppressive fire area,"
which in effect is the distance from the selected grid square that he
may look for targets. The model converts the input, which is in meters,
to grid squares and permits the unit to search for targets in the expanded
area. Since the grid size in this investigation is ICC sveters, a sup¬
pressive fire area of 100 meters will permit units to search the eight
24
Table
vO
U N H CO
(U N
(U U U O
a •H X
01 N
•H (0
4-1 •rl Ö 3
X O
a
•§*
-c 4J /*N a 5 0) w Q
T3 B •H ^
tt) TJ JS (U U N
-U
g
C tí
u 4J C ed
4-1 C
C 4-1 O 4-t
cd 4J b cd u
•H M > ^
<! «d
eu
4J 1-4 <
I U ed TJ 4J •CUC u N eg
•H
4J C «
T) eu ^ •H N O J-l *H Æ. O CD
O rn vO
IA r-. m
O m
CA
O O CA vO
O A C'¬ en
o O vO
O O A
O O O A
O O O vO
O O O A
O U
C «
CD 4J
CS
O U
C «
CD
(S CS
CO C
PQ es
CO c
CQ
c CQ
ed
C
(U O a
CO eu
*3
es
es
CD CO CD eu eu eu
•9 .o o 3 3 3 4J 4J 4J
JS ed (U
'c >
C C
S ê r-4 CS
O A 1—4 es
vo
CD CO JS JS (U (U > >
es
X! eu >
es
TD cr
en
JP
O A
A
Tl O* A
O O
O A CS
26
grid squares adjacent to the selected square. A suppressive fire area
uf 100 meters is desired for this investigation, therefore 100 is entered
in columns 13-15 and 20-22. No entry is required,
-.FJre Range- There are situations in which it is not desirable
to engage targets at the maximum range of a weapon. If the gamer wishes
to limit the range at which a unit will initiate a fire fight, the unit is
designated a "Hold Fire" unit, and the desired range is entered in columns
25-28 for Blue and columns 30-33 for Red. In this game the hold-fire
range for both sides was set at 2200 meters and entered as shown. No
entry is required if no units are told to hold fire.
Weapons Units. The number of weapons units is determined from the
Organization Lists in Tables 3 and 4, and are entered in columns 37, 38,
41, and 42 as shown.
Command Units. The number of command units is determined after the
Task Organization is decided upon and will be discussed under STEP 7.
Assess Time. There is a finite time between the instant that a
round impacts and the time that a firer is able to assess the effects
of his fire. This is called Assess Time and is entered in columns 57-59.
In this game the assess tipie was set at 0.10 minutes. If no entry is
made, the model will assume the assess time equals zero.
Decision Time. During the course of a CARMONETTE battle, decisions
are made whenever a unit fires or reaches the center of a grid square.
However, if a unit is neither firing nor moving, it must reevaluate its
situation periodically. The time interval at which this réévaluation
is made is called the decision time and is entered in columns j6-68; in
this game it was set at 1.00 minute. A decision time must always be
entered.
27
STEP 3 - TERRAIN DATA
Iwo types of information on terrain are input to CARMONETTE. The
properties of terrain are characterized by elevation, height of vegeta¬
tion, traffJcability of roads, cross-country trafficability, cover and
concealment. These properties are input using Form TERRAIN 1. The cover
offered by terrain has the effect of reducing the vulnerable area a tar¬
get presen is to firers; similarly, concealment reduces the visible area
presentea to observers. These effects are input using Form TERRAIN 2.
Preparation of these forms is described below.
TERRAIN 1
A reference grid as described under Preliminary Considerations is
superimposed over the simulated battlefield as shown in Fig. 5.
Each grid is then assigned a separate index for each of the six
terrain properties using Form TERRAIN 1. CARMONETTE has two features
which reduce the effort required by terrain coding. First, it is not
necessary to code areas covered by the grid that are now within the area
of interest. Second, the program will continue to assign the last index
read to subsequent squares until a new index and square are identified.
Elevation. The average elevation of any grid must be between
0-4095 feet or 0-1248 meters. Negative elevations are prohibited. For
cases that violate these limits, a constant can be added to or subtracted
from all elevations. Since US maps show elevations in feet and most other
countries present them in meters, the option of entering the average ele¬
vation in feet or meters is allowed. However, the data are converted and
stored in the computer as feet.
Average elevation of each grid (specified to the nearest meter or
foot) is listed beginning in row 1, col 1 of the battlefield (60 columns
by 63 rows). See Fig. 6 to determine the format. The letters "ELE" are
entered in cols 73-75 of each data card in the elevation deck. The first
card is called a header card and the type of measurement is entered in
cols 77-80 as "FEET" or "MTRS" of the header card. The entry "FEET" or
28
¡MÉüdlMÉIIIi «iNtüUHltUi
Alsfeld Deutschland 1:25000
ç,iÉ«ianpi&n*
■kWUKWBBW 'wzmtámmn ^aiBS^aa^ 1CIIKSS íims*' ’/iir^a 4k AK* H'.iCMm itumsm lUmt!?!'*
10 II n M M IS M 17 N ltNn»7SS4aSM17MS»S0JISaas4]SM17M]»4t<l«>43 44 4S44 47 M «* SO SI » S3 S« Ù » 57 M MM
MaOitat 1:75000 9 Ftêfthin
UniM»
Fig. 5 - CARMONETTE Battlefield
29
Reproduracl from besr available copy.
■ - ■ ..... ÜHHtfÜHklliill MHHHIiiiiMilttiiai
MTRS is not repeated, and these columns may be used to record sequence
numbers. For each terrain grid for which values are to be filled out
enter the "XM and 'Y" coordinates of the grid, and the value of the ele¬
vation of that grid in the designated columns of the form. The numbers
entered in these fields must be right adjusted. The order of the grid
coordinates is to increment the "X" coordinate through its range, then
increment the "Y" coordinate, and increment the "X" coordinate through
its range again. Thus, the "X" coordinate must always be increasing
from 1 to 60, and the "Y" coordinate increasing from 1 to 63. Only grids
whose average elevation changes from the previously entered value, need
be entered on the form. The program will continue to assign to the
intervening squares the last average elevation read. After the last entry
for elevation, 999 must be entered in the next three columns.
Vegetation. Average height of vegetation for each grid is used in
the battle model as a factor affecting intervisibility. The format to be
used in completing the vegetation data is similar to the elevation format
except the ID for cols 73-75 is the letters "VEG." The first card of the
vegetation data must be the header card, the unit of measure is included
as it was for elevation, followed by the data cards. The closing entry
of 999 must be made as for elevation.
The average height of vegetation of any grid must be between 0-63
feet or 0-19 meters. The data is stored in the computer as feet.
Trafficability of Roads. The trafficability of roads is one of
the factors (mobility class and slope between grids are the others) used
in determining the rates at which units move over the roads in CARMONETTE.
A grid with an index of 0 has no road through it. Each road on the
map is designated by an index of 1 (main highway), 2 (secondary road) or
3 (unpaved road). CARMONETTE assumes there is a road between two adjoin¬
ing grids only if the road trafficability index of both grids is identical.
If there are not, then movement must be cross-country. If there is more
than one road in a grid, assign the index of the best road. If two roads
of the same index occur in adjacent grid squares but do not actually
30
connect, they must be relocated with a road-vacant grid between them so
that phantom connecting roads will not be simulated, if roads are tra¬
verse to the axis of advance, they are of no value to the unit's movement
through the grid.
The format for entering the trafficability of roads is similar to
that of elevation except that the ID for cols 73-75 is the letters "RDS."
The closing entry of 999 is required.
Cross-Country Trafficability. The cross-country trafficability is
similar to trafficability of roads and is used as a factor in determining
the movement rates of various kinds of vehicles and dismounted infantry.
The entries are either 1, 2, or 3.
Generally, one might classify the terrain so that movement rates
would reflect that the grid with trafficability index 1 does not hinder
the movement of units, terrain with trafficability index 2 provides some
hindrance, and terrain with trafficability index 3 provides the most hind¬
rance and may be impassable to some units with certain type of vehicles.
The format for entering the cross-country trafficability of a grid
is similar to that of elevation except that the ID for cols 73-75 is the
letters "TRF." The closing entry of 999 is required.
Cover. The average cover to direct fire provided by a grid in re¬
spect to other grids is described by 1 of 15 indexes. Index 1, for example,
might be designated complete exposure for elements of units that are within
that grid, while an index 15 might designate impregnable cover. Not all
15 indexes must be used.
The format for entering the average cover of a grid is similar to
that of elevation except that the ID for cols 73-75 is the letters "COV."
The limits of the cover index are 1 through 15. The closing entry of 999
is required.
Concealment. The concealment for a non-firing unit is also described
in terms of 15 concealment index values. An index value defines the aver¬
age amount of protection a unit has against hostile detection in a terrain
31
grid. Thus, during battle, as a unit moves from grid to grid, its aver¬
age concealment can change depending on the concealment index number as¬
signed to the terrain grid the unit is presently within. Not all 15
indexes need be used.
The format for entering the average concealment of a grid is similar
to that of elevation except that the ID for cols 73-75 is the letters
"CON." The limits of the concealment index are 1 through 15. The clos¬
ing entry of 999 is required.
Examples of TERRAIN 1 entries are shown in Fig, 6
TERRAIN 2
The effects of cover and concealment are simulated in CARMONETTE by
reducing the size of the target that is presented to weapons and sensors.
The size reduction is not fixed by the program; it is done by inputting
the presented vulnerable and visible areas using form TERRAIN 2, Fig. 7.
The columns on this form represent the element size indexes identified
on the Unit Classification List that was prepared earlier, and the rows
represent the cover indexes assigned on form TERRAIN 1. It is not neces¬
sary that all element sizes and cover states be used; only those of
interest in the situation being gamed are required. It is also possible
that the vulnerable and visible area may be different.
Information on vulnerable and visible areas is available in techni¬
cal manuals, design specifications, or through Army Materiel Command
agencies. The data shown below is for a Blue tank and is in a typical
format.
Dimensions of a Fully Exposed Blue Tank
0°(Front)
Bottom Rectangle Top Rectangle
W(m) H(m) W(m) H(m)
3.5 1.4 3.1 1.0'
90°(Side)
Bottom Rectangle Top Rectangle
W(m) H(m) W(m) H(m)
7.0 1.4 5.2 1.0
Given this information, form TERRAIN 2 is completed as follows and as
shown in Fig. 7.
Since the only information given pertains to visible area, and no
factors were given to convert it to vulnerable area, the two areas will
be considered equal for this game. It is also necessary to decide how
to combine the front and side areas since the model does not consider
target orientation except in the case of helicopters. (The model sets
the side area of a helicopter equal to five times its front area.) In
this game it was decided to use the mean of the two areas. Table 7 shows
two options for computing the areas to be input. Under either option,
Cover State 1 represents a fully exposed target, and the area is calculated
as shown below. 34
gumgggigiiHin
Area Front Area + Side Area 2
1(3.5 *1.4) + (3,1 xi. 0)]+ [(7.0x1.4) + (5< 2 xi. Q)1
= 4.9 + 3.1 + 9.8 + 5.2
2
= 11.5 m2
This area is entered in columns 3, 4, 5 and 33, 34, 35 of line 1. Under
Option 1, this area is multiplied by the appropriate fraction and the
product entered as shown. Under Option 2 the gamer muse decide how much
of the total area is cov red and/or concealed under the condition des¬
cribed. The gamer could decide that a tank traveling in the open would
have h of its hull covered; at dismount points ½ of the hull would be
covered; in hasty positions 2/3 of hull would be covered; and in delib¬
erate positions only the top rectangle would be exposed. He would then
recompute the areas and enter them in the appropriate places on form
TERRAIN 2.
The total cover for a unit depends on the cover provided by the
square and the size of the elements of the unit. The net-cover table
provides a measure of the-cover of a unit as a function of the element-
size index and the cover index of the grid square by assigning to each
terrain-cover index and to each element-size index a net-cover index.
In effect the net-cfver table is a summary of the cover conversion table
with only indexing values 1, 2, or 3. Net-cover index 1 is such that a
unit of dismounted infantry has good protection against a fragmentation
burst. Net-cover index 2 implies fair protection for dismounted infantry
against a fragmentation burst. Net-cover index 3 implies poor protection
for dismounted infantry against a fragmentation burst. The net-cover
index is also used to characterize the cover available in a grid square
when a decision to move or fire is to be made and the unit cannot fire
while moving. The net-cover index 3 implies no cover for this tactical
situation. A net-cover index is assigned to each combination of element-
37
MHili ÜüMttiÜ
size index and cover index. When dismounted infantry or open vehicles
are pinned down, the program sets their net-cover index to 1 automatical¬
ly.
STEP 4 - WEAPONS DATA
i
Weapons simulated ln CABMONETTE are described by their characteris¬
tics, accuracies, kill probabilities and target priorities. This Infor-
mation is input to the model using five WEAPON forms.
WEAPON 1
The characteristics of a weapon includes its minimum and maximum
range; minimum crew size; reaim and reload times; round velocity; impact
area for indirect fire weapons; firing signature for direct fire weapons;
guidance; and ammunition types. These data are available in technical
manuals, tables of organization and equipment, firing tables, test re¬
ports, project managers, and similar DA and AMC publications. They are
input to CAKMONETTE using form WEAPON 1 which is described below and
shown in Fig. 8.
Column
3-6
7-11
12-13
14-17
18-19
20-23
24-25
26-29
30-31
32-35
Characteristic
Minimum effective range of weapon in meters. Minimum value is zero.
MaXím^,®ífective ran8e of weapon in meters. Maximum value 0 3276/ results from storage allocated by program and is
not a problem for weapons likely to be used in a CARMONETTE game. "
Minimum number of men required to serve weapon. Minimum: 1, maximum: 63.
Average aim time of weapon, in minutes.1
SD of aim time, in minutes.2
Average reaim time after weapon has been fired, in minutes.1
SD of reaim time, in minutes.2
Average time to load weapon,
in minutes.1
SD of load time, in minutes.2
The model assumes the proper
ammunition is loaded prior
to initial engagement, hence
these inputs are not cur¬ rently used.
Average time to reload weapon after firing, in minutes.1
39
«d
Column Characteristic
36-37 SD of reload time, in minutes.2
38-42 Average round velocity, in meters per second. This velocity
is taken over the range expected to be most used in the
simulated battle. Minimum: 2, maximum: 32767.
43-50 For artillery and mortars, weapons 01 to 12, enter the length
and width of the impact area in meters. The length is
measured parallel to the direction of fire, the width
perpendicular to it. The program will compare these dimen¬
sions with the grid size and store the impact area as one
of four sizes: 1 by 1, 1 by 3, 3 by 1, or 3 by 3 grid squares.
53 For the 1 by 3 and 3 by 1 artillery and mortar impact areas
described above the orientation is indicated as follows:
Direction 0 implies that the direction of fire is
parallel to the X axis.
Direction 1 implies that the direction of fire is
perpendicular to the X axis.
Direction 2 implies that the direction of fire is
45(225) degrees to the X axis.
Direction 3 implies that the direction of fire is
135(315) degrees to the X axis.
51-53 For all other weapons the approximate firing signature
(flash, smoke, dust, etc.), in square meters to nearest
tenth. Minimum: 0.1, maximum: 63.9.
54 Enter x if weapon is guided missile.
55 Enter x if weapon cannot be reloaded until impact occurs
(e.g., wire-guided missile).
56 Enter x if weapon is to fire at farthest of two equally
desirable targets (otherwise nearest target will be
chosen).
57-60 Can be used to record ammunition types used by weapon,
62-65 e.g., high-explosive antitank (HEAT), high explosive
(HE). These names are for identification only.
61,66 Enter x if ammunition has multiple-kill capability
(fragmentation ammunition).
67-68 Number of rounds per trigger pull normal mode of fire.
Minimum: 1, maximum: 63.
40
Column Characteristic
69-70 Neutralization weight per round. Minimum: 1, maximum: 63.
Minimum value: 0.002, maximum value: 7.999. If a standard devia¬
tion (SD) is to be used, this value must be at least 3.4 times the value of the standard deviation.
2 An entry is not required, however if a standard deviation is used,
its minimum value is 0.02 and maximum value is 0.99.
Examples
The following is a discussion of the WEAPON 1 entries shown in
Fig. 8. Columns 1 and 2 contain weapon numbers corresponding to those
assigned on the Weapons List prepared during STEP 2.
Weapon 01 is the Blue medium mortar. The field manual
describing this weapon gives the following data.
Ammunition: HE, WP, Illuminating
Range: Minimum - 100 meters
Maximum - 4700 meters -
Bursting Area: 30 meter diameter
Rate of Fire: 5 rounds/minutes, sustained.
The organization chart in-Fig. 3 shows a.crew size of 5. A technical
memorandum prepared by the Army Materiel Systems Analysis Agency adds:
Time to fire 1st round: 15 seconds
Probable Error: Range - 50 meters
Deflection - 15 meters
Lethal Area, HE round: Personnel, standing - 798 m2
Personnel, prone - 596 m2
A map inspection indicates that this mortar will generally engage targets
at ranges from 3000 to 4000 meters. The appropriate firing table shows
the time of flight to 3500 meters is 32 seconds.
41
The above data is entered on WEAPON 1 using the following reasoning:
Range :
Crew:
Enter directly
Although 5 men are assigned, 3 can operate the
weapon. If the number of men serving the weapon
falls below 3 during the simulated battle, the weapon will cease firing.
Aim Time: 15 secs = 0.250 minutes. No standard deviation
is given, therefore it is estimated to be h the aim time and equals 0.06 minutes.
Reaim Time: Artillery and mortars do not realm during a
single mission, therefore the entrys used for aim time are used.
Load Time: This value is not used by program, hence it is left blank.
Reload Time: 5 rounds per minute is equivalent to 0.20 minutes
reload time. Again the standard deviation is
approximated by h the basic entry. Round
Velocity: 3500 meters
32 seconds = 110 meters/second
Impact Area: Of the four impact area configurations available,
the 3 by 1 most closely approximates that of the
3 tube mortar section, therefore enter 300 * 100.
Direction: The direction of fire of the mortars parallels the X axis so enter 0.
GM?, RAI?, FT?: None of these apply, therefore no entry.
Ammo: Only high explosive (HE) will be used in these
games,' and it is a multi-kill munition.
Rounds per
TP: The weapon fires a single round per trigger pull.
Neut Wt: This is a judgmental input and is estimated to be 9.
Weapon 16 is a Red air defense multi-barreled machine gun employed
in its primary role. Since the characteristics of this weapon when
employed against ground targets are quite different from those in the
AD role data must be entered for the system in both roles. Data on
"threat weapons" is available through the Intelligence Threat Analysis
Detachment (ITAD) of ACSI and AMSSA. The same sort of reasoning as was
used for the Blue mortar is used in entering this weapon on the form,
therefore only those entries that have a different basis will be dis¬
cussed below. This discussion pertains to the AD role.
44
Standard Deviations for Reaim and Reload Tines: The minimum
non-zero input-f 0.02, is used to indicate that a standard
deviation is desired. When the program determines that the
standard deviation is not less than the basic entry divided
by 3.4, it will compute and store the remaining reload (Reaim
or Reload Time)/3.4 rather than the 0.2 which was input.
Firing Signature: This is a judgmental input scaled to the
signature of a rifle which is set at 0.1.
CM?: Although the weapon is not a guided missile, an X in
this column causes the program to confirm that line of sight
between the AD gun and the helicopter still exists at the
time of inpact. If the helicopter has remasked LOS does not
exist, and the rounds from the AD gun co not impact.
Rounds per TP: See discussion pertaining to this weapon under form WEAPON ?.
Weapon 41 is a Blue medium antitank weapon that fires non-frag¬
menting ammunition, therefore there is no option to indicate multiple kill
under ammunition.
WEAPON 2
In addition to the range to a target, the accuracy of a direct-fire
weapon is a function of the following:
Volley History: Is this a first or a subsequent round?
Did the first round hit or miss the target?
Firer Activity: Is the firer stationary or moving?
Is the firer partially suppressed by
incoming rounds?
Target Activity: Is the target stationary or moving?
CARMONETTE uses the distance a round is expected to miss a target under
appropriate combinations of the above factors to calculate hit probabili¬
ties. These expected miss distances are recorded on WEAPON 2. Three
data cards are provided for each direct-fire weapon. They are the miss
distance at maximum effective range (card 1), at 0.707 maximum effective
range (card 2), and at zero range (card 3). The computer program will
fit a quadratic curve to these three points to derive the miss distance
for any range. It is important that the value for zero range be obtained
by backward quadratic extrapolation from the minimum effective range of
the weapon. This data should be provided by AMSAA or other AMC laborator¬
ies. Occasionally the data will be provided in the format required but
usually comes in the form of tables or curves which use a 7^*7^ft tar¬
get and give the probability of a hit given a shot (Ph|S^ and Prob~
ability of a kill given a hit (Pk|h^- The probability of a kill given
a hit will be discussed in conjunction with WEAPON 3. Table 8 lists miss
distances that correspond to hit probabilitites against a 7^x7^ft tar¬
get; appropriate miss distances are entered on WEAPON 2. The preprocessor
calculates selected hit probabilities based on these inputs. These values
are compared with the Pyjs curves and/or tables, and the miss distances
are adjusted until the values from the preprocessor match the curves.
WEAPON 2 is completed by recording the known or estimated values
of miss distance on three cards for each weapon type as shown in the
accompanying explanation.
46
mmmm PPPPPI^VH
Table 8
PROBABILITY OF HITTING A STATIONARY 7½ BY 7J5-FT TARGET CORRESPONDING TO A GIVEN MISS DISTANCE MEASURED IN METERS
Miss
distance
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
Probability
of hit
1.00
0.95
0.92
0.88
0.75
0.64
0.53
0.48
0.45
0.38
0.31
0.29
0.28
Q.'23
0.20
0.17
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.5
3.8
4.3-4.7
4.9-6.7
7.0
47
Probability of hit
.16
.15
.14
.13
.12
.11
.09
.07
.08
.06
.05
.04
.03
.02
.00
tMÍMaámstilÈitíÉÊItÈittÊiÊUÊÊiiItÊÊíttÊÈÊ iiHMMMMiattaMMaKMaiaiaiiMiii* lÉlltÉÉirMilÉiÉMittlMlkllHi
Column Characteristic
Enter weapon name for identification.
First round miss distance (to nearest 0.1 meter accuracy),
firer moving, stationary target, weapon normal (not
suppressed), ammunition type I.
Same as above for ammunition type II.
First round miss distance (to nearest 0.1 meter accuracy),
firer moving, stationary target, weapon partially sup¬ pressed, ammunition type I.
Same as above for ammunition type II.
First round miss distance (to nearest 0.1 meter accuracy),
firer moving, moving target, weapon normal, ammunition type I.
Same as above for ammunition type II.
First round miss distance (to nearest
firer moving, moving target, weapon
ammunition type I.
Same as above for ammunition type II.
First round miss distance (to nearest 0.1 meter accuracy), firer stationary, etc.
Subsequent round miss distance (to nearest 0.1 meter accuracy), given first round hit, etc.
Subsequent round miss distance (to nearest 0.1 meter accuracy), given first round miss, etc.
In all cases the minimum entry is 00.0 and the maximum is 99.9.
Examples
Weapon 13 is the main gun on the Blue tank. Accuracy data similar
to that provided by AMSAA is shown in Tables 9 and 10.
CARMONETTE uses a single value for probability of a kill given a
hit, therefore it is necessary to combine the two probabilities given
above into a single probability of a kill given a shot, decide upon a
representative probability of a kill given a hit, and then modify the
probability of a hit table. This modified table is shown in Table 11.
0.1 meter accuracy),
partially suppressed.
Left
margin
4-6
7-9
10-12
13-15
16-18
19-21
22-24
25-27
28-51
52-63
64-75
NOTE:
48
Table 9
HIT PROBABILITY ESTIMATES FOR MAIN GUN
FIRED FROM A MOVING BLUE TANK AT A
STATIONARY, VERTICAL, 7½ * 7%-FT TARGET,
APDS ROUND
Range
250
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Probability
of a. hit
0.92
0.90
0.77
0.55
0.35
0.21
0.12
Table 10
PROBABILITY OF A KILL (M or F) GIVEN A HIT VS
RED TANK, EXPOSED (AVERAGED OVER ATTACK ANGLES),
APDS ROUND
Range
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Probability
of a kill
0.77
0.67
0.61
0.48
0.40
0.31
49
MUM
Table 11
WORKING TABLE, HIT AND KILL PROBABILITIES,
WEAPON NUMBER 13, Jat ROUND, FIRER MOVING,
TARGET STATIONARY, FIRER NORMAL
Range pk|s
Effective Ph|s
(Pk|s/0.59)
250
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0.75
0.69
0.52
0.34
0.17
0.08
0.04
1.00
1.00
0.88
0.58
0.29
0.14
0.07
50
ÉiiüÉttiáÉaattúéiMEi .--.-..- -
Inspection of the map of the game area shows that most Red tanks
engaged by the Blue tanks will be at ranges from 1000 to 2000 meters.
The average of the PK|H over these ranges is 0.59, therefore this value
is selected as the representative PK|H. The PK|S values are now divided
by 0.59 to give the accuracy data to be input on WEAPON 2 as shown in
Fig. 9. Range Card 2 pertains to accuracies at 0.707 of the maximum
range, in this case 2121 meters. The working table (Table 11) shows the
PH to be approximately 0.28, and according to Table 8 a miss distance of
1.6 meters will result in a PH of 0.28. Enter 1.6 in cols 5 and 6 of
Card 2 of Weapon Number 13. A similar process is followed for the other
Firer/Target/Round Number/Ammunition combinations. Table 12 is an example
of the preprocessor output; a 7*5x7^-^ target has an equivalent radius
of 1.3 meters.
Data on the Red air defense weapon. Weapon 16, is provided in a
format similar to that for Weapon 13. Since the probability of a hit
with a single round is 0.0013 at 3000 meters, and the smallest Py used
in the model is 0.02, it becomes necessary to create an artificial round
that will accurately represent a burst of fire- from this weapon. This is
done in the following manner.
The probability of at least one hit (PH/n) from a burst
of "n" rounds is given by;'
PH/n “
Since both PH/n (0.02) and (0.0013) are known, this
expression is solved for "n"
n = ln(1~pH/n) _ 0.0202
ln(l-PH/1) 0.0017 11.88 * 12
The weapon normally fires a 144 round burst. Since 12 real rounds are
represented by one of our artificial rounds, the number 12 is entered
in cols 67 and 68 of WEAPON 1 for Weapon 16. WEAPON 2 is then completed
in the manner described above.
51
«Atttta «iMiliiiiiaiaiiiliiHriUi ittÉüüHüyifÉiiüÉi MtaaiiiHiiaHaiiáÉHIÉiiÉfeitti
The Blue MAW, Weapon 41, cannot fire on the move, therefore no
entries are necessary in cols 4 through 27. Unless the crew is partially
suppressed, the accuracy of this weapon is not dependent upon range; so
the miss distance is the same on all three cards.
52
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53
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1 ^ i i
LL 1 1
IL 1 JJL
— — — _ _ _ r~ ■■■ * ■ r LAA- A L i il k,. ILL JLL 'MM
ai !XX XL- XX F XX XL F XX XX JL XX IL JL 1 k JL. IL i i ■ L I i
' —— 1
—
ai ¡XX XL XL F
XX XL F -I XX. -LL XX IL JL LL IL IL AA.
1 i 1 k LL
1 L IL
i i IL.
i i UL —LL JLL i JJL
ai III XX XX Lu XX XX tu txx XX 1 L XX 11 i L 1 L 1 i 1 k 1 l M F
AA- i i
AA. 1 i
LLL LL ,1 1 - î JJL
— —— _ _ _ ____ _ 1 1 i i LIL JLL LLL JX JX
F al¬ ! XXj XXJ XX Lx XX U U XX XX F XX XX ! L k L JL j k 1 1 1 k F I i i i F — —L
ai, XX XX XX F
XL XX. U XX XX F XX XX XL
F F U U XX- uU XL .u F
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JL
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- JJL ! J 11 ai, -LL 11 L LL L XX J-L U XX XX XXI XX XX U Lui F U U U U U LL XiJ F F HF
XX XX ¡XL XX XX XL XX F XX XX XX F F xu F 1 i i, 1 L 1 L 1 1 i —
Ft -piXâj
XL XX XX XL XX U XX XX XX XX JL r~ JL U. F F 1 L 11 1 L
-AA I 1
—AA i i
LL i i
-IL JL LL 3 1 JJL
ri "I >rUll rUJ XX d XX XX -U XL LL LU LL XX JA LL XX —. — LL
—IA u
-a V. XX
-JL u
J L i XX
IL LuJ
-LL 3
JX i LLL
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XX XX XX XX XX U XX XX jH XX ja JL II 1 1 FN 1 L ■ga 11 JÃ 1 I M —
”73 XX XX XX XL XX 1 L XX XX XX xl£ LL JL M aL
"S AA
1 1 -lue j£
IL. 1 i q]
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JLfc Js
JX * -LBé I4Í/
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1 L AK M
IL JL
¢2 JLL JLk
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m V, i y. ' ' ^ -^ • IL, JIM IJ î
XX XX XX U XX XX U XX U U IL XX XX 11 11 11 1 L i L * —*• — —j Fl
IL 1 L
XL 1 1
XX 1 1
XX 1 1
XX 1 1
XX 1 1
JX U 3
LL XX XX XX JU -U u. AA il.
.LL
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LL XX U U U XX. U JL. U U u X. xa xxJi Lu*.
Fig. 9 - WEAPON 2 Cont’d
Reproduced from best available copy. 54
-........ ....U
Table 12
PROBABILITY OF HIT VS RANGE, WEAPON TYPE 13, AMMUNITION TYPE
TARGET RADIUS 1.3
K OX
«»3
X «0 • o*- K O
I X X N
3 ¡W*» X m
M >
W X o »wo
«9 > N X o «•
'K X ml
« X « «it tn
*- «C 3 M M M >• k X
O *■
«ff
X
o «
> o e o w o X N X
X -
•* o < X X
> ». « X 3 U
■ o w u »■
K X
o W X o X hl O
O > M X.
t ■! X hi»- m
I- X 3 W X hi »* h. X :
i
X X
► M M3 «9 X X O X X
K “ X »- X*»
X' O hi X X X ►
•I
O O W A X O O X o o • A o
• •
O A A — « O A O A X A X. a «
O *• A A O A A O • ■ •
» » XA O
X'N X N
O O »X » D O •• X *
O O A O O A
xi a O i o < X X X X X X
O O X <A A o o X m a
a X — o X X
o o m a
r a X X a < o i
OX A AAA
a O X
> X XON
O hi hi A X A
O X a» O X O X tf! A O
O A O X
X X — o
o o X
' o O X o X l — O X I — o
O —A I O X A I
o a o o
i A X I X X
o o
— a o a ox A A I iXAXX X X A X A
O A A X I OX * A I » • • •
O X X a X X » • •
A X A — • •
O A X O I X A • •
o — o * • •
«mi e Ml« - • • •
•» a ar « « « K -* • •
N ~ 9* (D Ml N » N « « 0» * r* 9- ** * i « — • • ■ • • • •
A X A X X X A XA —
O — —O ' O X X A • • • •
X X X A X X X XA — • • • • •
X X O A A A A XX X X X X A — XXX—O • •••• •••••
A A — O • • • •
• I
£ ox -O O X A X A O X A A X OA —X A A XX A — OOAXA OXAA— O X X A — OXXA— XXXA — • ••••• •'•••• • • • • •
O — X A A OXXA — • • • • •
— X X X X X A A — X X A O X A — —A - X X X A O XXX —O X A A — O • «••• ••••• • » •
OAAAX X— —< I
O X X A — * •
X X A AX X A X — XXX— XXXA — X X X A O
• • •
O AX X X X — O
!
A X XX : AO—Ax ► XX—O XXX— o
X X X X XX —A X A — A — X A A — O X X A — O X X A — O •••• ••••• ••••• ••••»
I
o o o o o X O X o a X a a
2 2? 9 o o o o o oooao ooaoo in O Ml O Ml O Ml O MIOMIO MIOMIO ^ Ml « O « Ml « O « Ml « O
i
—« « —« « « min a —N «
J ! A !
•f I
W
I I
A X XX O
• • • • •
Ml « Ml Ml W —
« N O O
9- « M r «
9 — 0 • •
mi Ml « — ^h « 9 N —
• 0^ « 9 <0 • <9 « — O » • • • •
» Ml »S O 9 • 9 N O
9* O « Ml ’M « — O
• N «O N « — O
Ml « N « « K Ml N O O • • * • •
ooaoo mi a mi o « Ml N O • »xM «
55
i
J
CS*
WEAPON 3 AND WEAPON 4
After a direct-fire round has hit its target or an indirect-fire
round has impacted in the desired area, the model determines if the hit
has caused a kill. The probability of a Kill given a hit used in CARMO-
NETTE depends upon whether or not the target is a vehicle, and if the
target is a vehicle, whether or not it is a soft vehicle (Fire Response
Class 2). WEAPON 3 contains the probability of kill given a hit by
direct-fire rounds that have not fragmented; WEAPON 4 contains the prob¬
ability of kill given a hit by rounds that have fragmented. The logic
employed by the model in determining the probability of a kill given a
hit is shown in Fig. 10.
An X in column 61 or 66 of form WEAPON 1 identifies fragmenting
ammunition. If the round being considered is not fragmenting, the prob¬
ability of a kill given a hit is determined from WEAPON 3. If the round
is fragmenting, the target is identified as a vehicle or not. If the
target is not a vehicle, it is infantry, and the probability is taken
from WEAPON 4. If the target is a vehicle, it is identified as being
"soft" (Fire Response Class 2) or "hard" (Fire Response Classes 3 and 4).
If the target is "hard", the kill probability is taken from WEAPON 4. If
the target is "soft", WEAPON 3 is consulted to determine if the round kills
the vehicle before fragmenting; if it does all crew members die with the
vehicle. If the round does not kill the "soft" vehicle, the probability
of killing individual crew member is determined from WEAPON 4.
WEAPON 3
lhe probability of a kill given a hit for direct-fire weapons and
the type of ammunition to be used against each vulnerability class for
a]l weapons are entered on WEAPON 3 as explained below and shown in
Fig. 11. The numbers across the top of the form indicate the weapon
number; those along the left edge identify vulnerability class.
Column
Left &
top margin
5, 8, 11,
14, ...68
6&7, 9&10,
.... 69&70
Characteristic
Enter vulnerability class and weapon name for
identification.
Enter x to indicate the ammunition type each weapon type
prefers to use against each vulnerability index.
Enter kill probabilities given a hit of each vulnerability
index by each ammunition and weapon type for each direct-
fire weapon. Limits: 0.00 to .99.
Ihe probability of survival of troops who are not crew members in¬
side troop carriers when the carrier is destroyed is entered as vulner¬
ability class 12; this probability is usually provided by AMSAA. All
crew members are killed with the carrier.
Examples
Since Weapon 1, the Blue medium mortar, has only one ammunition
type no entries are required.
Weapon 6 is the Blue medium howitzer with dual purpose ammunition
for type I and high explosive ammunition for type II. Type I is selected
for vulnerability classes 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5; type II is selected for
vulnerability classes 6 and 7 and troops riding inside of armored person¬
nel carriers destroyed by type I ammunition have a 0.95 probability of
survival.
The Blue tank gun (Weapon 13) has both armor piercing, disposable
sabot (type I) and high explosive antitank (type II) ammunition. As shown
58
in Fig, 11, type I is preferred against the Red tank and type II against
other targets.
Since the Blue MAW, Weapon 41, only has one type of ammunition,
there is no need to mark an ammunition selection. The probabilities of
killing the various type targets are as shown in Fig. 11.
wppsfj mmmmm WIMP,
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61
WEAPON 4
The probability of killing infantry in various net-cover indexes
by weapon and ammunition types is entered on WEAPON 4. The probability
of killing infantry is equivalent to the lethal area of the number of
rounds fired per trigger pull divided by the total impact area. For
artillery and mortars the length and width of the impact area are entered
in cols 43 to 50 on WEAPON 1. For other fragmenting rounds the impact
area is the area occupied by the target unit (deployment area).
The kill probability of dual purpose munitions against vehicles
is also entered on WEAPON 4. It should be noted that this kill prob¬
ability is entered as a four-digit decimal fraction (.0000 to .9999).
The type vehicle target i» identified by "vulnerability class." If any
type of weapon or type of ammunition is not effective against a particu¬
lar type vehicle, no entry is made at this point. This kill probability
is:
Pk = vulnerable area of vehiH» x number of probability of kill
impact area submissiles given a hit by a
submissile
WEAPON 4 is shown in Fig. 12 and is completed as follows. The data
on Weapon 1, the Blue medium mortar, shows the lethal areas against per¬
sonnel as: standing- 798 m¿; prone-596 m2. Standing is equated to "Not
responding to hostile fire." Net Cover State 2 is considered to represent
typical conditions. Using the equation, Pk = the probability
of killing^infantry responding to hostile fire and in Net Cover State 2
iS Pk ~ 300x100 = ^-^99 x 10 2 = 0.02. This probability when the infantry
is not responding to hostile fire is, Pk = p 2.66xl0-2= 0.03.
These values are entered on the form as shown. The probability is lower
for Net Cover State 1 and higher for Net Cover State 3, but 0.02 is the
minimum entry for infantry; so it is entered for Net Cover State 1. For
Net Cover State 3 the probability is increased by 0.01. Weapon 1 has no
capability against vehicles, therefor' there are no entries under Vehicles.
The probability of killing infantry with the Blue medium howitzer,
Weapon 6, is calculated as above. This weapon also has a dual purpose
round; the probability of killing a tank with this type of ammunition is
shown below. The size of the vulnerable area should be provided by ITAD
or other intelligence agencies. In this case it is 15 m2. The impact area
is input on WEAPON 1 and is 9 x104 m2. AMSAA provides information on the
number of submissiles and Pj(|H = 0.25.
pk = glfio1» x 90 * 0*25 = 0.0038
This value is entered in cols 16 through 19 for Weapon 6. The probability
of killing vulnerability classes 2, 3, and 4 is computed in the same man¬
ner. NOTE THAT ONLY VULNERABILITY CLASSES 1 THROUGH 4 CAN BE KILLED BY
FRAGMENTING AMMUNITION.
CARHONETTE
WEAPON 4
«OBABR-rry or klung infantry and venkles «TM FRAGMENTING AND DUAL PURPOSE MUNITIONS
ÇÇDDDÇÇDD3E0C EEEfflaSEEEEEHffiEEBEra» ä
îliiïii ïlîiiii •lîlïii uL
4 » 11
ïlilïl » 11 »lf|F| i » i F|F|N|i j : i »iFlNl' i* i »|F|Nh fi 11 »IFlNl' ■ i* »|F|ll|i 111 »IFINU 11 « »|F|«|I _i 11
agjgü 111 »JF|WM _i 11 »|F|N|< ■ 11 «|F|»ll 111
»iFim« it i »iFlNK ■ 11 »IFIIII4 -li i R|F|II|4 _i 11 »IFiRM 111 R|F|N|4 111 »|F|N|4 111 »lNN|4 • i i «iFim« 111 »|F|N|4 _L I 1 • »,»,1114 1 1 1
1 1 i ic^mamnl I»|F|N|4| 1 , ,
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Fig . .12 - WEAPON 4 Entries
65
...........- . ■ÉÉiklillAildflMÉllHMMiHMIMlINKifÉHIii
tíÉ
Jki
WEAPON 5
Targets are not of equal value to all firers, and all weapons are
not capable of killing all targets, therefore each weapon has specific
target preferences. These preferences, Target Lists, are input to CARMO-
NETTE using WEAPON 5. There are separate target lists for each side.
The form provides for three separate target lists for each weapon. At
each point of the battle, each unit will be told in its orders which
target list its active weapon should follow. This form consists of two
pages for each side. Page one pertains to direct-fire weapons (13-34)
with fragmenting ammunition. Page two is for direct-fire weapons (35-56)
with solid projectile ammunition. The ordering of target classes within
a list does not determine the priority in which targets will be selected.
The decision as to which target should be engaged is based on the threat
targets represent to the firer and upon their proximity to the firer.
The ordering within the lists does influence the manner in which
a unit conducts surveillance however. The model restricts a unit’s sur¬
veillance to an area surrounding targets that are first on each of the
three lists. This restriction is accomplished in the following manner.
A unit conducts surveillance over the entire battlefield until it deter¬
mines the general location on a target that is first on one of the three
lists. The unit then restricts the area over which it is conducting
surveillance to the square occupied by the target and the eight squares
surrounding it. In the event that an observer knows the general location
of more than one target that meets the above criteria, surveillance is
restricted to the closest target. If more than one target are at the
same distance from the observer, surveillance is restricted to all of
them. If target information is lost, the process is repeated. The form
is shown in Fig. 13, and is completed as follows.
Example
Appropriate targets for the main gun, Weapon 13, on the Blue tank
are other tanks, APCs, HAWs, and self-propelled air defense weapons. The
target classes representing these targets are recorded on the form. The
66
coaxial machina gun, Weapon 48, should engage infantry squads, AD shoulder
fired missile gunners and the ground mount HAW when it is in range.
The Blue helo. Weapon 36, will engage targets in the same priority
as the tank except that it will always engage air defense weapons first.
The Red self-propelled air defense gun, Weapon 16, and shoulder-
fired missile, Weapon 53, will only engage helicopters.
CA
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68
Fig. 13 - WEAPON 5 Entries (Blue)
s «
a a Ml s "I ¡ic < •< ¡2 u a 3
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71
Fig. 13 - WEAPON 5 Entries (Red) continued
STEP 5 - SENSOR DATA
In order for the weapon considered in STEP 4 to engage targets, it
is first necessary to detect targets. Detection in CARMONETTE is done by
sensors and is a function of sensor type, range, target size, and target
and observer activity. The model provides for six sensor classes of six
types each. Three are for general sensor classes and three are special
sensor classes.
General Sensors
The probability of detecting an exposed tank at a given range is
much greater than that of detecting a man at the same range; however if
the man is moved closer there is a range at which the probability of de¬
tecting the man is equal to that of detecting the tank at the original
range. The parameter that provides a measure of the above phenomena is
the solid angle subtended by each target. The solid angle subtended by
a target is equal to the visible area of the target divided by the square
of the range from the observer to the target. A tank (11.5 m2) at 3000
meters subtends the same solid angle as a man (0.5 m2) at 625 meters.
CARMONETTE uses four intervals of solid angle to compute detection prob¬
abilities. These are determined by four threshold values, a1, a,, a3,
and Let A denote the solid angle presented by a target to an ob¬
server; the intervals are defined as follows:
a* amax<^<cti
b. a* £ A < a2
c. a2 ¿ A < a3
d. a3SA
Four states are used to describe the information possessed by an
observing unit concerning a target unit. These states are:
1. Target's location unknown
2. Target known to be located in a certain grid square
3. Target erroneously pinpointed within a grid square
4. Target correctly pinpointed
72
Changes in the information state of an observer are determined by the
model based on a transition matrix similar to the one shown below.
Subsequent state
1 2 ¿
<u 4J
2 2 03
c „ <U 3 03 03
(¾ 4
Pll P12 P13 P14
P21 P22 P23 P24
P31 P32 P33 P34
P41 P42 P43 P44
Probabilities of changing from the present state to the subsequent state
are contained in the body of the matrix. Six probabilities; Pli, P12,
P14, P44, P41, and P21, are input for each sensor, in each solid angle,
for stationary and moving targets, and for normal and partially suppres¬
sed observers. The other probabilities are calculated by the first pre¬
processor, and the. matrices are then stored for use by the model.
Sensor data is generally provided by the US Army Electronics
Command and is in the form of detection probability curves such as that
shown in Fig. 14. CARMONETTE inputs are derived and recorded as follows.
Identify the four ranges R2, R3, and Rmax with their corresponding
solid angle thresholds a1, a2, a3, and amax as shown in Fig. 15. The
general sensor forms are completed as follows.
73
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Fig. 15 — Detection Probability Curve with Ranges
and Solid Angles
SENSOR 1
Sensor number 31 was Identified as unaided eyes on the preliminary
work sheets. When line of sight to a target is lost, two methods are
used to degrade information states. The first item on SENSOR 1, the prob¬
ability of loss of target information, is used each scan time to degrade
the information state from State 2 to State 1 if LOS has been lost. If
a unit has a higher state of information and LOS is lost, the information
state will be degraded one state each time until State 2 is reached.
Record in cols 3 and 4 of SENSOR 1, Fig. 16, the estimated probability
that an observing unit will completely forget the existence of a target
unit after line of sight has been lost; this is 0.50 for the unaided eye.
The Surveillance Interval, also referred to as the Intelligence
Cycle, controls the frequency with which an observer using a specific
sensor will hive the opportunity to change his information state. The
surveillance interval is set at 1 minute for the unaided eye and is entered
in cols 5 through 8. The solid angle thresholds for non-firing targets
are based on the visible area of the largest target when it is fully ex¬
posed. This area is recorded on TERRAIN 2 as the presented visible area
of element size 0 in Cover State 1 and is 11.5 m2. Calculate the thres¬
holds as follows:
c*! = Y25OO)2 = 1'®^* • Enter in cols 9-15
“2 “ (1500)7 = 5.11 * 10 . Enter in cols 16-22
a3 = 7750)7- = 2-04 X 10 5. Enter in cols 23-29
11.5 —7 amax ~ (3500)2 ” 9-39><10 • Enter in cols 30-36
The same technique is used to determine the solid angle thresholds
for firing targets, and the largest firing signature shown in cols 51-53
of WEAPON 1. It is not necessary for the ranges used for detection of
firing targets be the same as those used for non-firing targets.
76
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Fig. 16 - SENSOR 1 Entries
SENSOR 2, 3, AND 4
Six probabilities of changing information state are required as
inputs; three are probabilities of improving information;
PH — The probability of not detecting a target
P12 - The probability of detecting but not pinpointing
a target (probability of gaining nearest square information)
P14 - The probability of detecting and pinpointing a target
These probabilities are so related that their sum must not be greater
than one. Restrictions imposed by the computations require that Pll and
P12 be 0.02 or greater and that P14 may be zero but must be less than
0.96.
Example
The curve shown in Fig. 15 represents P14; the following procedure
is used to input this data. P14 for the unaided eye, not neutralized,
against a fully exposed, stationary tank between ranges of 3500 and 2500
meters is read from Fig. 15 as 0.03 and is entered in cols 21 and 22 of
SENSOR 4 (see Fig. 19). In the next range interval the probability
0.12 is entered in cols 23 and 24. The remaining two probabilities are
0.40 and 0.90 and are entered in cols 25 and 26, and cols 27 and 28
respectively. The probabilities for moving tanks can also be read direct¬
ly from this figure and recorded in the appropriate columns. The prob¬
abilities when the observer is partially suppressed can be obtained from
a similar curve or may be described as a percent degradation from the
normal curve. They are also recorded in the appropriate columns,
If curves are available for Pll and P12, the above technique is
used to determine entries on SENSOR 2 (Fig. 17) and SENSOR 3 (Fig. 18)
respectively. If data on these probabilities are not available, inputs
are derived judgmentally, baaed on the restrictions discussed above.
78
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Fig. 18 - SENSOR 3 Entries
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Fig. 19 - SENSOR 4 Entries
SENSOR 5, 6, AND 7
Three probabilities of loss of information state are also required.
The probability that a target is still pinpointed-P44, the probability
that a target that has been pinpointed is lost-P41, and the probability
that a detected target is lost~P21. The sum of P44 and P41 must be less
than 1.0. Also P41 must be less than the product of 1.0 minus P44 and
P21, [l-P44]P21> P41. As before, computer restrictions require that P44
and P21 each be 0.02 or greater.
The loss of target information can be caused by the minor movements
of a target unit within a grid square. Using available data or judgment
and observing the above restrictions, record for the same target and ob¬
server activity and sensor index the probabilities P44, P41, and P21 on
SENSOR 5, 6, and 7 respectively (see Figs. 20, 21, and 22).
For other conditions of target and observer activity and for other
sensor indexes these same procedures must be used.
SENSOR 8
The probability of detecting that a target is dead is used each
surveillance interval to provide this information to observers that did
not receive it at the.time the'target was killed, (i.e., for observers
that come into line of sight after the death of the target). Using
available data or judgment, construct range-time plots for this probability
for each observer activity and sensor index and develop the values for
input to SENSOR 8 in a manner similar to that described for SENSOR 2 and
3. The model does not presently differentiate between mobility and fire¬
power kills; moving targets stop when they are killed, therefore no entries
are required in cols 37 through 52 (see Fig. 23).
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83
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Fig. 20 - SENSOR 5 Entries
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Fig. 21 - SENSOR 6 Entries
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Fig. 22 - SENSOR 7 Entries
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86
Fig. 23 - SENSOR 8 Entries
SENSOR 9 AND 10
The position of a weapon may be disclosed by the muzale flash,
back blast, smoke, dust, etc. caused by firing. CARMONETTE treats the
locating of firing targets as a two-step process. Pinpoint (Level 4)
infarmation on a firing target can be gained only from erroneous pin¬
point (Level 3), therefore the probability of erroneously pinpointing
a previously unknown firing target is input using SENSOR 9 (Fig. 24).
The probability of pinpointing a firing target given that it was already
erroneously pinpointed is input using SENSOR 10 (Fig. 25).
87
CA
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PR
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Fig. 24 - SENSOR 9 Entries
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89
Fig. 25 - SENSOR 10 Entries
SPECIAL SENSORS
Image Intensifier Data
Forms 37A and 37B, Image Intensifier Data, are used to input the
characteristics of the image intensifier class of the passive night vis¬
ion devices used in the game. (See Fig. 26.)
The entries in columns 18 through 50 of Form 37A are the values of
the ordinate of the curve of the system modulation transfer function at
selected values of Y along the abscissa of the curve for the type device
concerned. Figure 27 shows a type curve which can be used to prepare
these inputs. The values of Y0 to Y10 against which the ordinate values
are determined must be eleven equally spaced values along the abscissa.
It is suggested that values 0.0 to 4.0 in steps of 0.4 be used if the
example curve is used.
The entries in cols 3 to 8, 15 to 17, and 51 to 62 do not at present
enter into the calculation routine and are provided for possible future
refinement of the routine.
The entries in cols 7 to 72 of Form 37B are the ordinate values of
the curve of the photocathode tube sensitivity at selected points along
the abscissa of the curve. Figure 28 shows a type curve which can be used
to prepare these inputs. The values of X0 to X10 must be eleven equally
spaced values along the abscissa. If the example curve is used it is
suggested that values from 0.4 to 0.9 in steps of 0.05 be used. These
same values for X0 to X10 are used for determining the entries in Forms
38 and 39 for background and target reflectance.
90
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93
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Background and Target Reflectance
Form 38, Background and Form 39, Target, (Figs. 29 and 30) are used
for the entries of the spectral reflectance of the types of background
and of target to be played. The values of A0 to Al0 on each form on
which the reflectance values are entered must be the same as the equiva¬
lent values used in preparing Form 37B. Examples of data for these inputs
are shown in Tables 13 and 14.
On Form 38 the background numbers in cols 1 and 2 are equated to
the values of the concealment index for the grid square as established
in the preparation of the terrain inputs for the game. A determination
must be made as to the type of background, i.e., sand, loam, grass,
bushes, etc., to be related to the concealment indexes used.
On Form 39 the target types are identified in cols 1 and 2 and
are the same as the target class numbers entered in cols 4 and 5 of
UNIT 3.
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Table 13
BACKGROUND REFLECTANCE
Wave length
(Microns)
Type background Trees, grass
(Suriner) Coniferous
(Summer)
Trees, grass
(Autumn) Leaves Elephant
grass
0.4
0.5 Ó.6
0.7 0.8
0.9
0.04
0.07 0.12
O.I8
0.52
O.56
0.04
o.o4
O.O8
0.14
0.28
O.32
0.05 O.O8
0.20
0.32
0.54
O.56
0.03
0.05 0.12
O.I8
0.20
O.I9
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.12
O.38
0.41
Table 14
,TARGET REFLECTANCE
Wave length
(Microns)
F Type target
Fatigues Tank Viet
hat Black shirt
0.4
0.5 0.6
0.7 0.8
0.9
0.05
O.O5 O.O8
0.12
0.25
O.32
0.10
0.11
0.13
0.13
0.13
O.I3
O.I8
O.25
O.3O
O.38
O.52
0.55
0.05
‘ 0.05
0.05
O.O8
0.15
0.16
97
Environmental Data
Form 40 (Fig, 31) is used for the entry of the scattering and
absorption coefficients associated with the different light levels.
The radar degradation factors are also entered on this form.
This form could be easily expanded to include other types of
environmental conditions such as fog, dust, smoke, rain and similar
conditions. Such an expansion would require changes in the present
programming.
Radar Characteristics
Form 41 (Fig. 31) is used for entry of the pertinent factors of
radar performance that are used in the radar detection routine. The
entries in cols 3 to 6 for "Threshold Target Velocity" are not used at
the present time in the program and until the program is changed can be
left blank.
98
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99
Fig. 31 -
Forms 40 and 41 Entries
STEP 6 - MOBILITY DATA
Four basic data areas are used to describe mobility within the
model: the frequency with which fire and movement decisions will be made,
a series of doctrines that describe the movement preferences of each
unit, the maximum rates at which units may move, and rates at which units
can be ordered to move in various situations. CARMONETTE provides for
eight mobility classes. Class 0 is always dismounted infantry, classes
1-4 are always ground vehicles, and classes 5-7 are always air vehicles.
"On call" helicopters must be class 5. The doctrines and rates mentioned
above are described for each mobility class which is used in the game;
it is not necessary to use all classes.
MOBILITY 1
This form consists of four sets of movement doc^ines for the
eight mobility indexes. These doctrines give the probability of a unit
moving when it has: (a) no cover and no target, (b) no cover with target,
(c) cover but no target, and (d) cover and a target. Only one doctrine
is used in the example; however, up to four may be provided for each
side and mobility index. An example of MOBILITY 1 entries is shown in
Fig. 32. No Blue units are moving under a doctrine; so no entries are
required. The only Red units moving under doctrine are the three HAW;
therefore probabilities must be entered for Red Mobility Class 2. If
the HAW has no cover and not target, it should keep moving—enter 99 in
cols 9 and 10. If it has no cover and a target, it is more likely to
keep moving than to stop and fire—enter 70 in cols 11 and 12. If it
has cover and no target, it should keep moving to its objective—enter
99 in cols 13 and 14. If it has cover and a target it is more likely
to stop and fire than to keep moving—enter 40 in cols 15 and 16.
MOBILITY 2
Three threshold values are used to establish five slope classes.
The rate of travel across a grid square of each ground-mobility index i
depends on these slope classes. Figure 33 illustrates how these
100
A3
0 Slope
thresholds
-A,
-A.
□ Current grid square
Direction of movement □ Next grid square
Fig. 33 - Definition of Slope Class
H = slope class
102
I
thresholds are used to define the slope classes. One set of thresholds
is used for both negative and positive slopes, The direction of movement
from a grid square of origin to the next grid square is illustrated in
relation to the slope classes. In traveling from one square to the next,
a vehicle is said to encounter:
(a) A negligible slope if the elevation of the two squares
differs by less than Aj (slope class 1).
(b) A moderate uphill slope if the destination square is
higher than the square of origin, and the difference in elevation is
greater than Aj but less than A2 (slope class 2).
(c) A steep uphill slope if the vehicle travels uphill, and
the two squares differ in elevation by an amount greater than A2 and less
than A3 (slope class 3).
(d) A moderate downhill slope if the vehicle travels from a
square to one that is lower, and the difference in elevation is greater
than Aj but less than A2 (slope class 4).
(e) A steep downhill slope if the véhicle travels downhill,
and the two squares differ in elevation by an amount greater than A2 and
less than A3 (slope class 5).
(f) An impassable slope if the absolute difference in eleva¬
tion of the two squares is greater than A3.
The slope thresholds (minimum 0 feet, maximum 200 ft) should be
entered in cols 4 to 17 of the first five cards of the form (see Fig. 34).
In the example the thresholds are 7, 20, and 60 feet for dismounted in¬
fantry (mobility class 0); 7, 20, and 50 feet for tracked and wheeled
vehicles (mobility classes 1 and 2). A dismount and remount time must be
entered for troop carrying vehicles in cols 33-39. This time must be
greater than zero and less than 512.
To complete the form, a rate in meters per second must be indicated
for each ground mobility index being used for each slope class. In the
example, dismounted troops (mobility class 0) traverse moderate uphill
103
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104
Fig. 34 - MOBILITY 2 Entries
(slope class 2) terrain with good trafficability (trafficability index 1)
at a rate of 0,9 meters per second; this value is entered in cols 3-7,
line 02 of MOBILITY 2. The slope encountered by both tracked (mobility
class 1) and wheeled (mobility class 2) vehicles influence their maximum
speed, but the trafficability index of the road does not; the respective
entries on MOBILITY 2 reflect this.
MOBILITY 3
Data for air units include altitude data, air mobility data, and
ordered altitudes.
When air units change altitude with little net horizontal movement,
such movement is measured in integral multiples of the standard altitude
increment. This increment for vertical measurements is analogous to the
grid size. A standard altitude increment is chosen and entered in the
first field of MOBILITY 3 (Fig. 35). An estimate is made of the time
required for each type of air unit to descend or climb one standard alti¬
tude increment and is entered as shown. In addition, record the maximum
altitude of each air-mobility index. In the example the helicopter (mo¬
bility class 5) data are entered as shown in Fig. 35. The first entry,
cols 1 to 4, indicates the desired increment of altitude change. The
next two entries are the length of time to descend (0.05 min) and to climb y
(0.05 min) that increment. The last entry for each mobility class is the
maximum altitude that the helicopter can fly during the battle (400 ft).
MOBILITY 4
Altitude-change thresholds are entered in cols 2 to 25 on MOBILITY 4
for each air-mobility class. The same or different values may be assigned
to each air-mobility class.
For each air-mobility class, six altitude changes, designated alpha 1
to alpha 6 (cXj to ag) must be selected. Alpha 1, 2, and 3 are negative
and the other three are positive. They have the following significance:
If the change in altitude of an aircraft as it goes from the
center of one square to the center of the adjacent square is
105
(a) Equal to or more than 04 and less than a2, the flight
path is a steep descent,
(b) Equal to or more than ct2 and less than ot3, the flight
path is a moderate descent,
(c) Equal to or more than ot3 and less than a4, the flight
path is of negligible slope.
(d) Equal to or more than a4 and less than a5, the flight
path is a moderate ascent.
(e) Equal to or more than a5 and less than a6, the flight path is a steep ascent.
Changes of altitude may not be less than ax nor greater than ag per
grid square. (Remember that al is the most negative number in the set.)
Such forbidden values would represent unreasonably steep dives or climbs.
If the air mobility class is a troop carrier, the time required
for troops to leave the aircraft after landing and be ready to fire is
entered in cols 26 to 32 of MOBILITY 4 (see Fig. 35).
Finally, movement rates (forward speeds) for each mobility index
for each of the five altitude changes are entered in cols 33 to 62 of the form.
MOBILITY 5
Air units may be ordered to conduct either contour or level flight.
Altitudes at which the air units should fly are input using MOBILITY 5
(see Figure 35). Under indexes 2, 3, and 4 enter three altitudes above
the ground, including vegetation, at which contour flying can be ordered
and under indexes 5, 6, and 7 enter three altitudes above sea level at
which level flight can be ordered. The programs automatically set index
1 as "Treetop" which is 5 feet above the vegetation. The highest alti¬
tude entered must not exceed the maximum altitude entered on MOBILITY 3.
107
MOBILITY 6
Ordered movement rates for both ground and air units are entered on
MOBILITY 6, The rate at which the unit will attempt to move may be speci¬
fied or the unit will move at its maximum rate. If units are to go slower
than the rates detailed on MOBILITY 2 and 4, specify these rates on
MOBILITY 6. Seven rates should be selected for ground units and seven
for air units. Each rate is assigned an index from one to seven. Let
the index one denote the slowest rate; it is also the rate at which
partially suppressed units will move. Index seven denotes the fastest
rate at which units are able to move. These indexes are used in conjunc¬
tion with movement orders given to units.
—-- lütiftiüüi mm
STEP 7 - UNIT DATA
The CARMONETTE units that were discussed during the preliminary
considerations are formed by combining the weapons, sensors, ana other
characteristics described during the previous steps. The Organization
Lists shown in Tables 3 and 4 identify these units by number. An inspec¬
tion of these lists shows that CARMONETTE units may or may not be the
same as the TOE units with which we are familiar.
UNIT 1
The task organization and chain of command is recorded on UNIT 1.
Command, control, and surveillance (CCS) units are somewhat analogous
to headquarters in that they are the medium through which weapon units
pass intelligence information; they conduct surveillance with their own
sensors; and they can direct supporting helicopters and artillery to
engage targets. CCS units are not subject to detection and will be
killed only when their last assigned subordinate unit is killed. A
weapon unit must be identified as the "Buddy Unit" for each CCS unit.
Separate movement orders are not prepared for the CCS units; instead
each CCS unit accompanies his buddy and moves in accordance with that
unit's orders. If the first assigned buddy unit should be killed, the
CCS unit transfers itself'to the next listed subordinate unit. If the
CCS unit is not in the actual chain of command, i.e., the forward obser¬
vers and the radar teams, one of the weapon units must still be assigned
as the buddy unit. Dummy subordinate units may also be assigned to pro¬
vide for continuity of action by the CCS unit if the first buddy unit is
killed. A weapon unit may serve as the buddy unit for more than one CCS
unit in which case they would all be assumed to move together.
Weapon units will respond to calls for support only from CCS units
to whom they are assigned; therefore, artillery (including mortar) and
helicopter units may be subordinate to more than one CCS unit. The Target
Priority Lists (WEAPON 5) prepared during STEP 4 did not include priori¬
ties for artillery and mortars, Weapons 1 through 12. Priorities for
these weapons are assigned on UNIT 1; artillery and mortar units will
109
follow the artillery call priorities of the CCS unit to whose call they
are responding. The helicopter call priorities indicate the target class
preference of the CCS unit, but the helicopter will select targets based
on its own selection procedures when it arrives in the battle area.
UNIT 1 is completed as shown below.
Column Characteristic
1
2-3
4-5
6-17
18-33
34-35
36-37
38-39
40-41
42-43
44-46
47
48
49-60
Side. 1 is Blue; 2 is Red.
Enter command unit number. CCS units must be numbered conse¬
cutively starting with 49 and ending with 63. There is no
hierarchy implied by a CCS unit's number.
Enter number of CCS unit to which this unit is subordinate.
The senior headquarters on a side is subordinate to itself.
Enter numbers of CCS units subordinate to this unit.
Enter numbers of weapon units subordinate to this unit. Since
command units transfer buddy units in the order weapon units
are listed, initial buddy unit should be listed first and
other units in the desired priority. Limits: 1-48.
Enter number of initial buddy unit,
in cols 18-19. Should be same as entered
Enter class and type of Sensor 1.
Enter height of Sensor 1. Limits: 0-63 meters.
Enter class and type of Sensor 2.
Enter height of Sensor 2.
Enter communication cycle in hundredths of minutes. The com¬
munication cycle controls the frequency with which units
pass intelligence information. Limits: 002-999.
Enter X if command unit is able to call for artillery support.
Only artillery units subordinate to this command unit will respond to call.
Enter X if command unit is able to call for helicopter support.
Only helicopter units subordinate to this command unit will respond to call.
List, in priority, the target class index of target types
against which this command unit will call artillery. Limits: 1-15.
61-72 Same as above for helicopters,
110
MHaNÉaki «HI «MMiHaa . -. —
Example
UNIT 1 is completed as described below and as shown in Fig. 36.
The Blue company commander and each of his platoon leaders are
represented by a CCS unit. The commander of the outpost in front of the
northern most platoon is also represented by a CCS unit. The program
limitation of not more than eight subordinate weapons units per CCS unit
requires that an additional CCS unit be assigned to the southern platoon.
The Blue company commander is designated unit 49 and is represented on
line 1 of side 1. The unit number, 49, is entered in cols 2 and 3; his
superior CCS unit is also 49 and is entered in cols 4 and 5. The platoon
leaders (units 50, 52, 53, and 54) are his subordinate CCS units and are
entered in cols 6 through 17. The supporting helicopters (units 34 and
35) and artillery (units 36, 37, 38, 39, and 40) are his subordinate
weapons units and are entered in cols 18 through 33. The commander will
not ride an attack helicopter, therefore his initial buddy unit will be
the lowest numbered artillery unit, unit 36, which is entered in cols
34 and 35. The commander has both binoculars (sensor 52) and eyeballs
(sensor 51), and he is about 2 meters tall; these characteristics are
entered in cols 36 through 43. The communications cycle controls the
frequency with which the CCS unit passes information to its superior and
subordinate units. The company commander is assigned a 4-minutc cycle
which is entered in cols 44-46. There is an implied decimal point be¬
tween cols 44 and 45, hence the inputs for communication cycle are in
minutes and hundredths. The artillery and helicopter call priorities
are as shown. Other CCS units are processed in the same manner as the
Blue company commander.
UNIT 2
Each force is divided into no more than 48 weapon units. The ele¬
ments in each unit must have the same mobility, vulnerability, location,
and order at all times. A unit moves from square to square with all its
elements. Each unit may have up to four independent sets of weapons.
Each of these four sets contains one type of weapon.
Ill
The constraints to bear in mind when assigning the forces to se¬
parate units are; (a) not more than 48 separate weapon units may be de¬
scribed for a side (units that are composed of a troop unit mounted in
personnel carriers must be counted twice in this computation), (b) when
two or more elements of the table of organization and equipment (TOE)
are placed in one unit they must be homogeneous to the extent described
above, and (c) each unit may have no more than 63 killable elements.
When the situation being simulated calls for infantry to operate
in both the mounted and dismounted role, the infantry unit must start
the game mounted. It may subsequently be dismounted and remounted as
many times as desired.
UNIT 2 lists important properties of each unit. This form must be
filled out twice, once for each side. Each unit on a side is given a
number from 1 to 48. If less than 48 units are on a side, numbers must
be assigned starting with 1 and utilizing all numbers up to the maximum
on the siae.
UNIT 2 (one for Blue and one for Red) must be completed with data
characteristics of the units as shown in the accompanying explanation.
Column - Characteristic * _/
4-5 Enter number corresponding to main weapon type of each unit
as assigned on WEAPON 1.
6-7 Enter the quantity of each main weapon type in the unit, maximum of 63.
8-15 Enter ammunition supply of type I and type II for all weapons
in the main weapon group. These numbers must be less than
4095.
16-51 Enter information for unit's second, third, and fourth
weapon types in decreasing order of importance.
52-53 Enter the total number of men in each unit, maximum 63. If
unit is a troop carrier, this entry should include both
the crew and the mounted unit.
54-55 Enter the number of vehicles in each unit, maximum 63.
113
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Column Characteristic
56-57
58-62
63-64
65-66
67
68
69
70
71
72
Enter number of men that remain in vehicle (drivers, weapon operators, etc.), maximum 63.
Enter average area each unit is expected to occupy when
deployed. This area is used in assessing casualties from fragmenting ammunition.
Not presently used.
Enter height of unit's sensor device above ground, e.g., the
height of a man's eyes above the ground.
Enter X if unit is troop carrier. If a unit is a troop
carrier, the next line in the table must describe the
characteristics of the passenger unit.
Enter X if unit cannot move.
Enter X if unit cannot fire. If a unit is unable to fire or
unable to move, an X is made in the appropriate column.
For example, a headquarters unit might be designated immobile.
Enter X if unit's sensor is not to be restricted to the grid
square adjacent to known targets on the target priority lists.
Enter X if unit car call artillery. If a unit has the commui-
cation, organization, md mission allowing it to call artil¬
lery, the appropriate column is marked X.
Enter X if unit is to hold fire until targets are within
hold-fire range. In effect the hold-fire option presents
a unit from initiatirig the fire fight. Maximum entry is 4095.
Example
UNIT 2 is completed as shown on Figs. 37 and 38.
Blue unit 1 is an APC armed with one heavy machine gun which has
210 rounds of ammunition. Eleven men ride this vehicle, one of whom is
the crew. Since the unit is a single vehicle, its unit area is the area
of the top of the vehicle (15 m2). Its sensor height is 2 meters, and
it is a troop carrier. This data is input as shown in Fig. 37.
114
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The squad which rides the carrier is listed immediately after it;
Blue unit 2 is this squad, Blue unit 2 has 2 LAW with 8 rounds, 1 machine
gun with 300 rounds; and 7 rifles with 140 rounds each. The ten squad
members have no vehicles and occupy an area of 1500 m2 when deployed.
Blue unit 7 and 8 are MAW teams; they each have 1 launcher and 5
rounds. The model does not kill weapons, it kills people and vehicles,
therefore it is necessary to designate the launcher as a vehicle. The
unit area assigned is that occupied by the gunner and launcher.
The other two platoons are identical to the one just discussed and
their entries are the same as those above.
Blue units 25 through 28 are heavy antitank weapons mounted on an
APC that also mounts a heavy machine gun. Blue units 29 through 33 are
tanks with 23 rounds of type I and 23 rounds of type II ammunition for
the main gun; they also have a heavy machine gun and a coaxial machine
gun. The tanks will not open fire until they have target within the
hold-fire range, or until they know that they or a friendly unit has
been tired upon. In effect the hold-fire option prevents a unit from
initiating the fire fight.
The entries in cols 52 through 57 for the helicopters, units 34 and
35, demonstrate another model idiosyncrasy. The program assigns the num¬
ber of individuals required to operate the weapon as entered on WEAPON 1
to the weapons in the order of importance indicated on UNIT 2. If there
are not enough men In a unit to fire ail the weapons, the program will
not permit the unmanned weapons to fire. Although the crew of the attack
helicopter is really two men it is necessary to assign three so that
Weapon C, the nunigun, can shoot at the same time as the other weapons.
Entries for the Red force (Fig. 38) are made, in the same manner as
for the Blue. Since many of the Red units are platoons rather than in¬
dividual vehicles, the. entr ies are for three or four vehicles; e.g., Red
unit 20 is a platoon of tanks plus the company commander's tank and has
4 main guns, 4 heavy machine guns, 4 coaxial machine guns, 12 men, 4
vehicles, and occupies a unit area of 4000 nr.
116
m MÜÜil -- ---
The units identified on UNIT 2 must be further described by assign¬
ing each of them to a target class, vulnerability class, mobility class,
fire-response class, sensor class, and element-size class. The Unit
Classification List (Table 5) prepared during the preliminary considera¬
tions assigns an index to each Item included in the games; the appropriate
indices are assigned to the units using UNIT 3 which is explained below.
Column Characteristic
Target Class. An index number from 1 to 16 is used to assign
units to target classes. All 16 need not be used. Two
factors, vulnerability and firepower of the unit, determine
its target class. Each hostile weapon will be given a
priority ordering of target types. The target-class index
therefore describes the relative desirability of units as
targets for different hostile weapon types. Target class
16 is not targetable, hence it may be used for artillery units and dummy CCS units.
Vulnerability Class. An index number from 1 to 12 is used to
assign units to vulnerability classes. No ranking is im¬
plied by the index numbers; they simply identify eleven or
less different sets of units whose elements have similar
vulnerabilities. Vulnerability class 12 is always used for
the probability of survival of troops inside troop carriers
when the carrier is .destroyed. Any two vulnerability
classes should be appreciably different in their vulner¬
abilities to the different weapons of the opposing force.
Remember that only vulnerability classes 1 through 4 can be killed by fragmenting ammunition.
Element-Size Class. An index, numbers 0 to 9, is used to
determine the probability that an element may be detected
and the probability that an element may be hit by enemy
fire. Index 0 corresponds to units with largest elements
(e.g., tanks) and index 9 to units with smallest elements
(e.g., dismounted infantrymen). Not all indexes need to be used.
Mobility Class. An index number from 0 to 7 is assigned to
all units. Dismounted infantry must be indexed zero, index
1 to 4 apply to ground vehicles, and 5 to 7 to air vehicles.
"On call" helicopters must be mobility class 5. The classes
are used to determine rates of movement under various con¬
ditions of trafficabiiity and combat. Should there be more
than four different ground vehicles or three different air
Column Characteristic
10
11-12
13-14
15-16
17-18
vehicles, those units that are most similar should be
placed in the same mobility class. Since dismount and
remount times are determined by mobility class (see
MOBILITY 2, Fig. 34), troop carriers that do not have a
common time should be in different mobility classes.
^.^"Response Class. An index number from 1 to 5 is assigned
to all units. Each unit is placed in a fire-response class
from 1 to 5; infantry in 1, open vehicles in 2, light armored
vehicles in 3, heavy armored vehicles in 4, and aircraft in
5. These fire-response classes are used to describe how the units respond to hostile fire.
Sensor Class. Six sensor classes with index 1 to 6 are avail¬
able to classify all units. Each class is further subdivided
into six types. The sensors are described in SENSOR 1
through 10 and Forms 37A through 41. Each unit is assigned
the appropriate type and class of sensor.
Maximum Men Per Vehicle. This number is used if one of the
vehicles of a multiple vehicle unit is destroyed so that
the survivors can mount the remaining vehicles of the troop-
carrier unit. The number of men and vehicles per unit is
shown on UNIT 2. If the survivors cannot be accommodated
in the remaining vehicles, all troops will dismount and proceed as a dismounted unit. Limits: 1-63.
Fraction of Time Unavailable. For support units that are not
exclusively supporting the simulated force, the fraction
(expressed in percent) of time they are unavailable (due
to supporting flank units not in the simulation) should be entered. Limits: 02-99.
Superior HQ. A superior headquarters identification must be
entered for each unit listed. The superior headquarters
identification numbers must start with 49 regardless of
the number of weapon units and cannot be larger than 63.
The superior HQ listed will receive intelligence informa¬
tion from the weapon unit each surveillance cycle.
Example
UNIT 3 is completed as follows, see Figs. 39 and 40.
Blue unit 1 is an APC and from Table 5 we determine the following:
Target Class 2 (col 5), Vulnerability Class 3 (col 7), Element-Size Class
4 (col 8), Mobility Class 1 (col 9), Fire-Response Class 3 (col 10),
119
Sensor Class and Type 52 (cols 11 and 12). Since the unit contains only
one carrier the maximum men per vehicle is the size of the squad or 11
men. Enter this number in cols 13 and 14. This carrier is part of the
northern most platoon, therefore its superior headquarters is 50 (cols
17 and 18). Blue unit 2 is the squad that rides in the carrier described
above and is input in the same manner as are all other Blue units.
The Blue medium antitank weapons (units 7, 8, 15, 16, 23, and 24)
are described as separate units so that they can be killed separately;
the model kills units not weapons. The entries for the MAW are straight¬
forward except for their mobility class. They cannot mount the carriers
with the squads since they are not part of the squad; so they are assigned
the same mobility class as the carriers and will move at the same rate
as the carrier during periods when they should be mounted.
Blue units 34 and 35 are "On call" helicopters, therefore Mobility
Class 5.
Red units are input in the same manner except for the carriers in
the rifle platoons. These units are allowed a maximum of 15 men per
vehicle. This permits two carriers in a platoon to carry the survivors
of the third vehicle if it is killed. When the platoon loses a second
vehicle, the last vehicle cannot carry all the surviving troops; so it
dismounts Its squad and the platoon continues its mission on foot.
122
UNIT 4
A relation between target class and vulnerability class of units,
as a function of range intervals, is established by the Danger State
Table, UNIT 4. Two ranges are selected that specify three range inter¬
vals. The two ranges are entered under Rj and R2 in cols 3 to 11 of the
first UNIT 4 card, see Fig. 41. In the example R^=1000 and R2=2000
since these were the maximum ranges of the Blue MAW and HAW 2 respectively.
A unit in a vulnerability class may be regarded, for a given range
interval, as being seriously vulnerable, moderately vulnerable, or effec¬
tively invulnerable to a unit in a target class. The states are identi¬
fied by the letters S, M and I respectively and one of these letters
should be placed in each square in the body of UNIT 4 for every vulner¬
ability-class target-class combination being simulated. UNIT 4 is com¬
pleted as shown in the accompanying explanation.
Column Characteristic
12-23 Enter S, M, or I as seriously vulnerable, moderately vulner¬
able, or invulnerable for each vulnerability class against
each target class within the range interval 0<range <Ri.
24-35 Same for range interval R^ < range <R2*
36-47 Same for range ^interval R2< range.
Example
Between 0 and 1000 meters, tanks (vulnerability class 1) are ser¬
iously vulnerable to other tanks (target class 1); invulnerable to APC
(target class 2); seriously vulnerable to the Red APC 2 because of its
cannon and ATOM, HAW 1, HAW-ground, HAW 2 and MAW (target classes 3, 4,
5, 6 and 7 respectively); moderately vulnerable to the LAW within the
infantry squads (target class 8); seriously vulnerable to attack heli¬
copters (target class 10); invulnerable to the AD systems (target classes
10 and 11); and moderately vulnerable to the antiarmor munitions of artil¬
lery pieces (target class 16). States for the other vulnerability classes
123
are input using the same logic, Note that all vulnerability classes
are invulnerable to the MAW (target class 7) beyond 1000 meters and to
the HAW 2 (target cí^Stb) beyond 2000 meters.
124
dÉtAdiattiMaiiliiiÁiife «Miau mmÊÊÊÍÊÊÊ
UNIT 5
Suppression or neutralization has long been recognized as a pri¬
mary weapons effect, however it is not sufficiently well understood to
accurately quantify all of its effects. CARMONETTE provides for two
levels of suppression. Dismounted infantry and open vehicles (fire
response classes 1 and 2) may be "Pinned down." In addition to these
classes, light armor, heavy armor and aircraft (classes 3, 4, and 5) can
be "Partially neutralized" by either direct or indirect fire. A "Pinned
down" unit retains only "nearest square" intelligence, does not conduct
surveillance, does not move and does not fire. A "Partially neutralized"
ground unit conducts surveillance and fires its weapons with reduced
accuracy, requires twice as much time to aim weapons, and moves at a
slower speed. Aircraft (helicopters) drop to treetop level when fired
upon, provided they are not guiding a missile to a target. If the heli¬
copter is guiding a missile, it will drop to treetop level after the
missile Impacts.
In addition to many other factors, suppression is a function of the
number and caliber of rounds impacting in an area and the time during
which these rounds fall. The caliber of the round is represented by the
neutralization weight entered on WEAPON 1, the impact area for artillery
is as entered on WEAPON 1 and is one grid square for other weapons, the
time to be cor.sidered is optional and is input on the first card of
UNIT 5. (See Fig. 42.)
The total neutralization weight of rounds falling per neutralization
interval required to cause a unit to respond to fire is listed on UNIT 5
as described below.
Column Characteristic
2-5 On first card only, enter desired neutralization interval in
minutes (nn.nn).
2-5 Enter number of rounds (of neutralization weight 1) required
for fire-response class 1 (dismounted infantry) to be
pinned down by a combination of direct and indirect fire.
6-9 To be partially suppressed by direct fire.
126
tfktaMjHMtiHlAUI ■iMHflHNlMiillMItiM
Column
10-13
14-25
26-29
30-33
42-45
46-49
Characteristics
To be partially suppressed by indirect fire.
Same for fire-response class 2 (open vehicles).
Enter number of rounds for fire-response class 3 (light armor): to be partially suppressed by direct fire.
To be partially suppressed by indirect fire.
Enter number of rounds required for fire-response class 5 (aircraft): to drop to treetop level.
Same as 42-45.
UNIT 6
CARMONETTE units that run out of ammunition for their main weapon can
either continue their mission firing their other weapons, or they can
withdraw from action. Units that cannot perform their mission without
their main weapon, such as ground or helicopter mounted ATCM, should be
given out of ammunition orders by placing an X under their numbers on
UNIT 6 (see Fig. 43).
UNIT 7
The points to which units withdraw after running out of ammunition
are listed on UNIT 7 (see Fig. 43). The model will order units to the
nearest escape point.
UNIT 8
There is a probability that a unit will exhibit its death by smoke,
ceasing fire, stopping movement, crashing, etc., when it is killed. These
probabilities are entered on UNIT ti for each vulnerability class as shown
in Fig. 43.
128
UNIT 9
Each CARMONETTE unit is given specific orders that control its
action throughout the simulated battle. If the unit is killed, it
simply quits executing the orders. The model presently executes the
22 commands shown in Table 15. Any logical sequence of these commands
may be employed to direct the actions of a unit throughout the simulated
UNIT 9 (Fig. 44) is used to record the order number, the pro¬
words, and numerical values of the qualifiers. No more than 999 orders
can be employed to control the battle. Each unit must be given one or
it ore orders, and the same sequence of orders can be given to any number
of units. Columns 1 to 3 indicate the order number, which must be less
than 999. Columns 4 to 7 are for the order. Only five qualifiers are
currently allowed and are to be recorded in the same order as listed in
Table 15. The interpretation of the order, qualifier proword, and
qualifier numerical values is as follows.
Order
NSTP
MOVE
Interpretation
Move without stopping. Used for units capable of firing
on the move. RATE must be first qualifier.
Move, and at the center of each grid square, compare the
probability of moving under the units current doctrine
with a random number. If unit does not move, it may
fire if so orderöd. Used for units that cannot fire
on the move. DOCT must be first qualifier.
STAY
DISM
REMO
CHAL
SKIP
Remain in place.
TIME, or INTL. Must be followed by qualifier FIRE,
Causes carrier and passenger units to dismount. Carrier
and passenger must be in same grid square and executing same order.
Causes carrier and passenger units to remount. Subject
to same restrictions as DISM.
Cause helicopter units to change altitude. Must be
followed by qualifier LOS, TRTP, LAND.
Causes unit to skip forward or backward a specific
number of orders. Must be followed by qualifier FORW or BACK.
130
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131
Qual No
HATE r
DOCT m
FIRE s
TIME tt.tt
INTL tt.tt
LOS
TRIP
LAND
FORW nn
BACK nn
SQRE xxyy
UNCD
FRUN uu
(Qual is left justified, No is right justified)
Identifies rate (r) at which unit is to move. Values
for "r" are from 1 to 7 and refer to the ordered
movement rates assigned on MOBILITY 6.
Identifies movement doctrine (m) under which a unit is
moving. Values of "m" are from 1 to 4 and refer to
probabilities of moving assigned on MOBILITY 1.
Identifies the number of rounds (s) a unit is to fire
under this order. Values of "s" are from 0 to 7.
0 is used if the unit is not to fire. 7 indicates
that no shot limit is to be observed and other condi¬
tions determine the completion of the order.
A time measured in minutes (tt.tt) from the start of the
game. Limits: 00.02-63.99.
A time measured in minutes (tt.tt) from the time the order is read.
When combined with CHAL, causes a helicopter unit to
change altitude to get line of sight to an enemy unit.
When combined with CHAL, causes a helicopter unit to drop
from its present altitude to 5 feet above the treetop
(vegetation as input on TERRAIN 1).
When combined with CHAL, causes a helicopter unit to
land in the square it is presently above.
When combined with SKIP, causes a unit to skip forward
nn orders, nn varies from 1 to 63.
Same as above except skip is backward.
Identifies a grid square, xx = 1 to 60, yy * 1 to 63.
Indicates that ther^ are no conditions on the SKIP order.
Indicates that condition on SKIP order is at least uu
friendly units are dead, uu varies from 1 to 48.
ENUN uu Same as above for enemy units.
UNTL uu Indicates that condition on SKIP order is until friendly
unit uu arrives in grid square xxyy. If uu dies
before reaching xxyy the unit receiving SKIP order
will take one of the following actions:
STAY Stay in place and continue to execute
order prior to SKIP.
SKP1 Skip forward one order.
EXIT Go to nearest escape point.
132
Qual No Interpretation
PRCA nnnn
ENCA nnnn
RNGE nnnn
TYPE w
KIND k
Indicates that condition on SKIP order is that there are
at least nnnn friendly casualties, nnnn varies from
1 to 4095.
Same as above for enemy casualties.
Indicates that condition on SKIP order is that at least
uu enemy units are known to be closer than nnnn meters.
Indicates that condition on SKIP order is that at least
uu vehicles of vulnerability class w are dead.
Describes the kind of fire to be employed.
k Kind of fire
0 Do not fire. Can be used in conjunction with Priority
7 to put artillery and mortar units "On Call."
1 Suppressive fire at or pinpointed targets in SQRE
xxyy.
2 Not defined.
3 Suppressive fire at or pinpointed targets in SQRE
xxyy while the firing unit is moving.
4 Pinpointed targets anywhere.
5 Pinpointed targets in SQRE xxyy.
6 Pinpointed target anywhere while the firing unit
is moving.
7 Pinpointed targets in SQRE xxyy while the firing
unit is moving.
The grid square mentioned in KINDS 1 and 3 for non-zero
suppressive fire area (recorded on GAME) can be the
center of an area in searching for pinpointed targets.
The grid square can only be indicated once in any order.
Thus the destination for a move must be the same as the
grid square desired for firing.
PROR p Describes the priority of fire to be used.
p Priority of fire
1 Choose dangerous targets and use first target list.
2 Choose dangerous targets and use second target list.
3 Choose dangerous targets and use third target list.
133
Qual No Interpretation
Priority of fire
4 Choose targets of opportunity from first priority list.
5 Choose targets of opportunity from second priority list.
6 Choose targets of opportunity from third priority list.
7 Fire as directed. Used for "On Call" artillery
and mortar units and for suppressive fire.
ALT Indicates the altitude (a) at which helicopters are to move.
aJ titudes assigned on MOBILITY 5.
Values of "a" are from 1 to 7 and refers to
Preparation of Orders
A narrative of each unit's actions throughout the battle should
be prepared keeping in mind tb° conditions that can be used to indicate
the completion of orders. This narrative can then be used to prepare a
sequence of orders for each unit's actions. The formats shown on the
right side of Table 15, and the limits on the values of the qualifiers
must be precisely observed.
Care should be taken to ensure that a unit does not attempt to
execute an order number that either does not exist or is intended for
other units. A non-existent order will cause the unit to be killed.
Unintended actions can occur when the last order in a unit's sequence
does not provide for actions to or beyond the termination time, and the
next sequential order is intended for other units. A convenient way to
avoid this type of trouble is to follow the last STAY order by an order
to skip backward one order unconditionally (SKIP BACK 1 UNCD). A non-
terminating computer loop will occur ii an exit from two or more SKIP
orders cannot be found.
134
liai
Special Orders. Orders for supporting units follow the formats
shown in Table 15, however specific entries are required. Artillery
and mortars are placed "On call" by being ordered to fire with KIND 0
and PROR 7. If helicopters are to be placed in an "On call" status,
two orders are required. The first order must be STAY INTL nn.nn (not
less than 1.00) and the second must be STAY TIME 5000.
If a unit is designated a troop carrier on UNIT 2, the program
mounts the following unit in the carrier, therefore the order DISM must
be given to both the carrier and the mounted unit before they can act
independently.
Examples. Orders for the elements manning the outpost on Hill
341.2 (1348) are shown in Fig. 44. Because of the manner in which the
program initializes command and weapons units, it is desirable to ini¬
tially order all units to stay an interval of 1 minute; it is mandatory
to give this order to "On call" helicopters.
Blue 5 is an APC, Blue 6 is the squad riding in the APC, and Blue
8 is the MAW that is attached to the squad. Orders must be given first
to the carrier and then to the squad, and orders must be the same for
both during the time the squad is mounted. After staying an interval of
1 minute (orders 1 and 15),. the carrier and squad are ordered to dismount
(orders 2 and 16). The carrier then proceeds as rapidly as it can (RATE
7) to a covered position (SQRE 1247) where it will wait for the squad to
rejoin it (orders 3 thru 5). After dismounting, tha squad deploys and
conducts surveillance until it sees three enemy units within 1000 meters
of the outpost (orders 17 thru 19). The squad then proceeds to the
carrier's location (order 20), and both are ordered to remount (orders 6
and 21). They then move to their final defensive position and dismount
(orders 7 and 22, and 8 and 23). The final orders (9 and 10, and 24 and
25) will cause the two units to fire at pinpointed targets anywhere
(KIND 4) from their first target priority list (PROR 4).
The orders for the MAW are intended to cause it to fire from the
squad position (order 31), cover the withdrawal of the squad (orders 32
135
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and 33), move with the squad and carrier to the defensive position (order
34), and then to fight with the squad during the remainder of the battle
(orders 35 and 36).
UNIT 10
The final input form tells each unit the number of its first order
and its starting location. More than one unit may have the same first
order number, and more than one unit may be located in the same grid
square. A troop carrier and its mounted unit must have the same starting
location, and it is very unlikely that they will have the same first
order number. Data for each unit is input using UNIT 10 as shown in
Fig. 45.
Example
The first order for Blue 5 is number 1 (line 1, cols 40-42), for
Blue 6 is number 15 (line 1, cols 49-51), and for Blue 8 is 30 (line 2,
cols 13-15). All three units are initially located in grid square 1348
(line 1, cols 43-46 and cols 52-55; and line 2, cols 16-19).
138
Part III
OUTPUT AND DATA DIAGNOSTICS
INTRODUCTION
CARMONETTE outputs can be classified as those from the Terrain
Generator, Preprocessors, and Game. These outputs will be discussed
in the following sections.
TERRAIN GENERATOR
The terrain data prepared in STEP 3 is punched on cards and input
to the terrain generator and ere processed for proper format and correct¬
ness. Errors of improper format are indicated by computer printouts for
debugging. An error is indentified by an item number and a type number.
The item number is simply the sequence number of the data item. Since
there are seven data items per card/line, a simple method of finding the
one in error is to divide the item number by seven. The error is in
the card/line numbered one greater than the quotient, and the remainder
shows its sequence number in that line. For example, if the item number *
printed out is 75, the error is in the fifth item on line 11.
-y- = 10, remainder = 5
Line number = 10 + 1 + 11
Sequence number = 5
The error type numbers are:
1 Illegal array name
2 Illegal grid coordinate
3 Value input not within allowable limits
4 Illegal sequencing of coordinates
5 Meters or feet not designated
141
Preceding page blank
aMHIÉtlHlüNHI UMMHIfllttÉI Ü
6 Array name changed before 999 terminator
7 Illegal first grid data
The erroneous data item is also shown.
Three errors detected by the terrain generator are shown in Fig. 46.
The first error message indicates that coordinates 2456 are illegally
sequenced (error number 4) in the fourth item of line 51 (354 t 7 = 50,
r*4). A search of the line designated C0V51 shows no coordinate 2456.
A more detailed look, however, shows that there are two lines designated
C0V50, and that coordinates 2456 are entered in the fourth data item
after coordinates 2856 were entered in the third data item. Tne second
error message indicates that coordinates 2656 in the fifth data item of
the same line are also incorrect. The errors in coordinates are elimi¬
nated by correcting the coordinates in the third data item to 2356. The
sequence now reads: 2356, 2456, 2656 now is legal. Since the computer
program does not use the sequence numbers in cols 77-80, no effort was
made to correct two lines numbered 50.
The function of the terrain generator, in essence, is to collect
data for a given grid square from each of the six characteristic forms
(ELE, VEG, TRF, RDS, COV, and CON), convert the input number to octal,
punch this data on the appropriate card in the LAND deck and print a
final listing of terrain data.
LAND Deck
The organization of the LAND deck is shown in Fig. 47. As shown
on the left of the figure, there are 640 cards in the LAND deck. When
the input was prepared, coding started in square 0101 and X was incre¬
mented to 6001, Y was then incremented by one and the process repeated
from 0102 through 6002. This procedure was continued until all squares
through 6063 were represented. The data in the LAND deck follows a
similar scheme. Six squares are represented on each card, therefore the
60 X-coordinates corresponding to each Y-coordinate are represented
on ten cards as is shown in the center of Fig. 47. The arrangement of
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143
.- —--———
11
Data Representation for One Grid Square
12
(Each field is in octal)
(X,2)
ele
veg kdtrf cov con
.--- -----—
Fig. 47 - Organization of the LAND Deck
data (stored in octal representation) for a single grid square is shown
at the top center of the figure. An example of a card from the LAND deck
is shown in Fig. 48. The first two digits of the identification number,
30, shows that the card is one of those pertaining to Y *31; the third
digit, 6, shows that it pertains to squares 3131 through 3631. The
following data pertains to square 3331: Elevation - 1770e* 1016 ft.
Vegetation - 2e * 2 ft. Roads - 0B = 0, Trafficability - 10*1, Cover -
O40=4, Concealment - Q6a = 6. These values may be checked against the
printed output shown in Fig. 49.
Final Listing of Terrain Data
Final printed output after error corrections from the terrain data
input routine will appear as shown in Fig. 49. For each grid square the f
printout contains coordinates, the packed octal data word, and the speci¬
fic values of the six terrain factors.
PREPROCESSOR
When all data prepared during STEPS 4-7 'is combined with the LAND
deck, it makes up the game input deck. Before this final deck can be
input to the computer, the form from which this data was taken must be
identified by a header card. The header card is simply a card on which
only the form ID has been punched in columns 73-76 (GAME, WPN1, SENP,
M0B6, UNTO, TER2, LAND). The header card is placed in front of the
portion of the input deck it identifies, appropriate control cards as
discussed in Volume III are added, and the deck is input to the prepro¬
cessor that compiles the data and produces a listing of the data arrays
and an intermediate file. The preprocessor then uses the intermediate
data file to compose a final data file and a final listing of certain
combinations of data. This part describes the output of the preprocessors.
The diagnostics should be studied with extreme care before making computer
runs with the data.
Because of differences in computer systems and their use and
differences in the output formats used by the General Research Corporation
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Fig. 49 - Printout of Fi
nal
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(GRC) and the US Army Concepts Analysis Agency (CAA), the preprocessor
outputs are not identical in appearance, but they do contain the same
information. In the examples that follow, the version of the model that
produced the sample will be identified.
The input data shown in Appendix A contains the correct entries
that produced the sample game. The errors shown were diagnosed by the
data-preparation preprocessors during the development of the sample game
and are typical of those made by individuals using the model.
After compilation of the input data the preprocessor yields compu¬
ter printouts of the transactions that have been conducted, illegalities
present in the data, and input data arrays.
Transactions and Illegalities
In the GRC version, three types of transactions may be performed:
install, change, and copy. In Fig. 50, which shows the GRC version
Transaction Record and Data Errors, the install transaction, INST, is
printed to the left of the treatment identification, 9901. The trans¬
action and treatment are preceded by the run control card. The remain¬
ing two columns of information in the upper right side of Fig. 50 are
the form header cards used to identify input data. The minus zero is
the Control Data computer translation of the blanks that follow the ID
in columns 73-76 of the header card.
In Fig. 50 there was a keypunch error on WEAPON 2, card sequence
number 33; the arrow points to a minus sign in the first data entry to
the right of 383. This should have been 0, and the error was corrected
by repunching the card. Card number 10 in WPN5 indicat-s a target class
20 on the Target Priority List for Blue weapon 44. A check of the input
shows that the number 12 was punched on column to the left of the proper
field, thereiore the computer only read the 2 in the first cell and
assumed a zero in the second. This error was also corrected by repunch¬
ing the card. The errors shown for UNIT 9 601 and 803 also resulted
from entries being out of field and were corrected by repunching the
cards. (ENDP 9901 indicates the completion of the data-illegality
148
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processing of the treatment.) The final message indicates that the
thirteenth data entry for sensor number 52 caused the sum of Pli, P12,
and P14 to be greater than 99. The error was corrected by changing the
thirteenth entry from 94 to 93. It should also be noted that TER2 data
was not included in the inputs; the Second Preprocessor will not func¬
tion without this data.
The CAA version of the preprocessor produces the same information
in nearly identical format. The apparent differences are: the run con¬
trol, transaction, treatment identification, and completion of data-
illegality processing are not listed. A major difference that is not
obvious is that the CAA version checks to insure that all possible decks
are present, and if one is not, a message is printed indicating that the
subject input was not used; e.g., INPUT FORM NOT USED TER2.
Data Arrays
After the input data have been compiled, they are listed as FORTRAN
arrays, with several items stored (packed) into each word of the array.
The packing specifications are of little interest to the CARMONETTE gamer
and are dependent upon the computer system being used; they are described
in Volume III. The arrays are presented and discussed on the following
pages in the order of their appearance in the CAA preprocessor output,
because of rounding and base changes (from decimal to octal) some data
may vary slightly from the input values.
Data input from Form WEAPON 1 is shown in Fig. 51. The range and
crew are stored in ARRAY KR; aim and realm times and standard deviations
in KWPAT; flight time (calculated by dividing the grid size by round
velocity in meters per minute), reload time and standard deviation,
round velocity, and rounds per trigger pull in KWPLT. The firing signa¬
ture, which is scaled to 7.9, is stored in KWS; and the direction, width
and length of artillery and mortar impact areas is stored in LWARTY.
The total tactical standard deviations shown In Fig. 52 come from
Form WEAPON 2 and are stored in ARRAY KSIG. Figure 53 shows the prob¬
abilities of a kill given a hit that were input from Form WEAPON 3 and
150
■■ ■■ ■■■ tadmiiai ■MÉIMHÉfHlMIMaMÉIIIiaBIIIHaMHMIfliliiflIIMKiiNIIIMilllIiMMiMlIliillÉÉiflIIttIlilÉÉ MflMHÉÉiaft
and are stored in KPKH; the figure also shows the probabilities of indi¬
cating death as input from Form UNIT 8 and that are stored in KBURN.
The probability of killing infantry with fragmenting ammunition and
vehicles with dual purpose ammunition was input from Form WEAPON 4;
this data is stored in KPKIH and is shown is Fig. 54. The target lists
are shown in Fig. 55; they were input from WEAPON 5 and are stored in
KCTP. The arrays shown in Fig. 56 were prepared from UNIT 3 inputs and
are intended to assist the gamer in reading the Target Lists and Danger
State Tables. The Danger State Tables shown in Fig. 57 were input from
Form UNIT 4 and are stored in KSVR; the critical ranges were taken from
the same form and are stored in KSVRR.
Figure 58 shows unit description data that was taken from Forms
UNIT 2 and 3 and is stored in KUDW. The data shown in Fig. 59 comes
from several Unit forms; it is discussed below. Starting Order and
Location are from UNIT 10 and are stored in KNTR and LOC respectively.
Assigned weapons are input from UNIT 2 and are stored in KWT; the number
of weapons is also from UNIT 2 and is stored in KNTB. UNIT 2 also
identifies th^ amount of ammunition available for each weapon; this data
is stored in LAMW. The number of drivers, vehicles, and men are input
from UNIT 2, and the maximum men per vehicle from UNIT 3; all of this
data is stored in MAN. *
An X under a unit's number on Form UNIT 6 indicates that that unit
withdraws to the nearest escape point when it runs out of ammunition for
its main weapon; units having escape orders are shown in ARRAY KACX
(see Fig. 60). An X in the appropriate column of Form UNIT 2 identifies
certain unit characteristics. These characteristics and the array that
contains the information are described below.
Characteristic Array
Is unit able to call artillery? KHQ
Is unit a troop carrier unie? KTCJ
Does the unit's main weapon require
guidance? LGM
Is unit unable to fire? IFIRE
Is unit unable to move? IMOB
Is unit a hold-fire unit? KEY
151
As shown in Fig. 60, all soven of the arrays discussed in this paragraph
are simply one dimensional packed arrays. The numbers in these arrays
represents three bits in the following octal-binary conversion!
Octal Binary
0 1 2 3
4
5
6 7
000 001 010 Oil
100 101 110 111
The first sixteen of these numbers represent the 48 units that may be on
each side. If the bit representing a specific unit is "ON" (=1), the
unit has the appropriate characteristic. The technique of interpreting
these arrays is shown in Table 16. The bits for units 1, 3, 5, 9, 11,
13, 17, 19, and 21 are "ON;" therefore these Blue units are troop carriers.
The bits for units 41-48 are also "ON," but there are only 40 Blue units,
so these last bits are ignored.
The input fonrs and array names pertaining to the other data shown
in Fig. 60 are listed below.
Title Form Array
Infantry Pin-Down Threshold
Direct Fire Threshold
Indirect Fire Threshold
Firing Run Thresholds for Aircraft
Treetop Thresholds for Aircraft
Direct Fire Thresholds for Light Armor
Indirect Fire Thresholds for Light Armor
Direct Fire Thresholds for Heavy Armor
Indirect Fire Thresholds for Heavy Armor
Pin-Down Thresholds for Soft Vehicles
Direct Fire Thresholds for Soft Vehicles
Indirect Fire Thresholds for Soft Vehicles
Suppressive Fire Searching Distances
Escape Points
UNIT 5 LTFI
UNIT 5 LTF2
UNIT 5 LTF3
UNIT 5 LTHF
UNIT 5 LTHN
UNIT 5 LTM2
UNIT 5 LTM3
UNIT 5 LTT2
UNIT 5 LTT3
UNIT 5 LTZ1
UNIT 5 LTZ2
UNIT 5 LTZ3
GAME KASQ
UNIT 7 JEXIT
The slope thresholds and dismount times for ground units shown at
the top of Fig. 61 was input from MOBILITY 2 and is stored in KSLOPE
and KDMTIM. The ordered ground movement rates are from MOBILITY 6 and
152
are stored in 1.TG; RATE is as input (in meters per second), and TIME
indicates the time (in minutes) required Hy a unit moving at that rate
to cross one-ha if of a grid square. Maximum ground travel rate is taken
from MOBILITY 1 and is stored in MMTG; TIME and RATE are as described
above.
The probabilities of moving by doctrine shown at the top of Fig. 62
were input from Form MOBILITY 1 and are stored in MOVI’KB. The other
arrays shown in Fig. 62 pertain to air units and are analogous to that,
for ground units; their input forms and array names are listed below.
Titie
Air Units Mobility Inpur. Data
Descend and Climb Times
Altitude Thresholds
Altitude increment. Maximum Altitude
Minimum Movement Rate
Ordered Air Movement Rates
Ordered Altitudes
Form Array
MOBILITY 3 INCTON
MOBILITY 4 LACTT
MOBILITY 3 LACTT
MOBILITY 4 MMTA
MOBILITY 6 LTA
MOBILITY 5 LACTT
The radii for de teciLon and hit shown in Fig. 61 art scaled from
TERRAIN 2 inputs and are stored in KONI, K0V1, and K0V2.
The solid angle thresholds, surveillance intervals, and probabili¬
ties of loss of target information shown in Fig. 64 are from Form SENSOR
1 and are stored in KGTEST, KSA, ISCAN, and IP4 respectively. The prob¬
abilities of pinpointing an enemy that has fired are from SENSOR 9 and
10, and are stored in KDP13 and KDP34. The assess and cycle times at the
bottom of the page are from GAME and are stored in KAT1ME and KCTIME.
The effective solid angle thresholds are calculated hy the prepro¬
cessor and are printed out fur the gamers information as shown in Fig. 65
for non-firing targets and in Fig. 66 for firing weapons. Figure 67
shows the detection probabilities that were input from Forms SENSOR 2
through 8 and those that were computed hy the preprocessor. The prob¬
ability of detecting that a target is dead is stored in LPDC; the other
probabilities are stored in arrays labeled as shown (LP12, LP13, etc.).
The Task Organization input from UNIT 1 is stored in CCSU and is
shown in Fig. 68. The orders given each unit on UNIT 9 are stored in
MISN and shown in Fig. 69.
After all data has been read in, all errors corrected, and the
data stored in the proper arrays, the preprocessor calculates the prob¬
ability of hitting each element size with each type of ammunition from
each weapon at selected ranges. An example of these calculations is
shown in Fig. 70. The preprocessor also determines the initial cover
and concealment for each unit, and enemy units to which it has line of
sight; this report is shown in Fig. 71.
The final output of the preprocessor is shown in Fig. 72. This
data is of little direct interest to the gamer, but is of great assis¬
tance to the individual responsible to assist the gamer in determining
why some unit did not do as expected in a game and for that reason is
included in the second preprocessor output.
Tables 17 and 18 provide a cross index between input sources and
FORTRAN array names.
155
Table 17
Figure number
51 51 51 51 51 52 53 53 54 55 57 58 59 59 59 59 59 60 60 60 60 60
60 61 61 61 61 61 61 62 63 64 64 64 64 64 67 64
68 69
FOKTKAN ARRAY NAMES AND INPUT DATA SOURCES
Source input form
KR KWPAT KWPLT LWARTY KWS KSIG KHURN KPKH KPKIH KCTP KSVR, KSVRR KUDW KNTB KNTR LAMW LOG MAN KACX KHQ, KTCJ, IFIRE, JMOB LGM KEY LTFI, LTF2, LTF3, LTHF, LTHN LTM2, LTM3, LTT2, LTT3, LTZ1 LTZ2, LTZ3 JEXIT KDMTIM, KSLOPE LACTT LTA LTG mmtc; MOVPRB MMTA KONI, KOV1, KOV2 KSA KDP13, KDP34 KGTEST
WPN1 WPN1 WPN1 WPN1 WPN1 WPN2 UNT8 WPN3 WPN4 WPN5 UNT4 UNT2 & 3 UNT3 UNTO UNT2 UNTO UNT2 & 3 UNT6 UNT2 WPN1 UNT2 UNT5
LPDC 1SCAN LP.12, LP I 3, ... IP4 KATIME, KCTIME CCSU M1SN
,LP34, LP44
UNT7 MOB3
MOB3, 4, & 5 MOB4 & 6 MOB6 MOB2 MOB1 M0B4 TER2 SENS SENF SENS SENP SENS SENP SENS MOB1 UNT1
UNT9
156
MMaKilMNÉÉiliHlklMIiMalHaifiiikttilli - —--- ---—mu (HUNH
Table 18
INPUT DATA SOURCE AND FORTRAI ARRAY NAME
Source Input form
TERl TER2 WPNl WPN2 WPN3 WPN4 WPN5 SENS SENP
SENF MOB1 MOB2 M0B3 MOB4
MOB 5 MOB6 UNT1 UNT2
UNT3
UNT4 UNT5
UNT6 UNT7 UNT8 UNT9 UNTO
LAND KONI, KOV1, KOV2 KR, KWPAT, KWPLT, LWARlTf, KWS KSIG KPKH KPKIH KCTP KSA, KGTEST, ISCAN, IP4 LP11, LP12, LP13, LP14, LP21, LP23, LP24, LP31, LP32, LP34, LP41, LP42, LP43, LP44. LPDC KDP13, KDP34 MOVPRB KDTIM, KSLOPE, MMTG LACTT LACTT, LTA MMTA LACTT LTA, LTG CCSU KUDW LAMW, MAN
KHQ, KTCJ, IFIRE, IMOB, KEY KUDW KNTB, MAN KSVR, KSVRR LTFI, LTF2, LTF3, LTKF, LTHN, LTM2, LTM3, LTT2, LTT3, LTZ1, LTZ2, LTZ3 KACX JEXIT KBURN MISN KNTR, LOC
63 51 52 53 54 55 64
67 64 61 61 61 61 62 61 61 68 58 59 60 58 59 55
60 60 60 5? 69 59
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Fig. 52 - Example of Array KSIG
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probabil
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or
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Fig. 55 - Example of Array KCTP
wmmm «PW»1»«!»
BLUE units ASstfiNCD TO TARGET CLASSES 1AAGET_ . class
3| * 32 Ts" 1 3 S T n |3 |7 I» 21
25 2« 27 2â 7 0 |5 IA 23 '2B -. 2 H A 10 J2 i V IS 20 22
_31 .35 __... __ _ 36 37 38 3? AO
Reo units asrigned to target classes .target_
class
IS 20 2| 1 3 5 7 S U 13 |5 |7
22 23 2H 25 26 2 1 6 S (0 |2 IS 14 |S
-- 31 - 32 33 36 )5 36—37-38 3S - 27 28 26 30 RO AI a2 A3 RA
_®liuC UNITS ASSIGN« To YULnERABU!TT CLASSES vulnerability class
2S 30 3| 32 |3 1 3 5 S II |3 17 |S 2|
36 ,37 38 . 36 AO _ .. . ..- 25 26 27 28 7 8 |5 16 23 2A 2 A „ 6 10 |2 |A 18 20 22
3A 35
_ REO UNITS ASSIGNED To VULNERABILITY CLASSES VULNERABILITY .Ll*ss
I_is . 20 2| 3 I 3 5 7 S II 13 IS 17 .6__ 22 23 2A 27 28 26 30 6 25 26 3 J 32 ;|3 3A 35 36 37 38 36 AO A| 62 A3 AA 7 2 A 6 8 |0 |2 IA |6 |8
. Fig. 56 - Assignment of Units to Target and Vulnerability Classes
163
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--— .- ---*— .—--
Fig. 57 - Example of Arrays KSVR and KSVRR
umT
ter
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sens0r umr oEPtor
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Example of Array KUDW
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Fig
. 5
9 -
Ex
am
ple of
Arr
ays
KN
TR
, L
OG
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NT
B,
LA
MW
, and
MA
N
..I.llMMilÉIiBMIiBI
Pig
. 60
—
Exam
ple of
Arr
ays
KA
CX
, K
HQ
, K
TC
J,
LG
M,
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E,
IMO
B,
LT
FI,
LT
F2,
LT
F3,
LT
HF
, L
TH
N,
LT
M2,
LT
M3,
LT
T2
, L
TT
3,
LT
Z1
. L
TZ
2,
LT
Z3,
KA
SQ
, and
JEX
IT
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Fig. 61 -
Example of Arrays KSLOPE, KDMTIM, LTG, and MMTG
» »e
n.!*
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ving »* doctR|Nç>
sioc
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a itr
doctrine
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ver
no cover
cove*
cove*
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no Target
target
no ta
rget
target
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o A.
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< + + + O O O O
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171
lüttÜtfiÉàW iMtftfttaiH
Fig. 64 -
Example of Arrays KGTEST, KSA, ISCAN, IP
4, KDP13, KDP34, KATIME, and KCTIME
CFFECtIVE SOU«O ANCLE THRESHOUOS
H < r
r o r ^ K ^ ^ r — ^ n %/\ +* **
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— ia r n < ^ r < *• r ^ is
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ill i») r til ih in ca
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A| A4 A4 A4
CO flO 00 CD 00 00 CD ® — « « — K fs a> rs oooo rs rs is rs A4 A4 A4 A4
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Fig. 65 - Example of Computed Effective Solid Angle Thresholds
for Non-Firing Targets
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11911111119 9911911111
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030000000000000000000000000000000 OO 0300000 OOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOO COOOOOOCO OOOOOOOOOO O o oooooooooooo OOCOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO 0 0 04 04 o — X —nnnAiNnnnn — — — —anAn^avAi o i/i on on o — — «•aooooooooooooooooor*r*A>A«4 oo 04 04 o — X -.nnnAiNnn nn — — —— — — — — —AN^fv/víM o m on on o — — - 000000000000000000^^^^4 Ox on on a n X ri——— — — — — —— *• — — — — — — ——44 444 00 o o o o o a o 0000000000 ooooooooooaooo ox on on onxn — — — — — — - - — — — — — — 44444 o o 0000000 00000000 00 O.OOOOOOOOOOOOO a 004 04 o — X —nnn — — nnnn — — — — — — —— — oocoo o — ocooc — — —coooooooo oooocaooooooco o an o an o an o o o ooooooaooo ooooaoooaooooa 0 — 0— 0— 000 090030000000000000000000 n 4 n 4 n 4 n — — —4 44 nn44 44 n nnnnnnnnnnnnn 0000000---000000000 00000000000000 a — OUI O d! Q 4 n o (N Oj (Ni — — Ai N Ai A| — — —— — — — ——^nAnAnN^
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-•«-i-»— ÉÉttÜlNÉ
GAME OUTPUT
The philosophy that has guided the design of the output program is
that only the minimum required output would be provided without the user
specifically requesting more detail. In the sections that follow, the
source of information, the messages transmitted, and the output formats
will be explained in non-technical terms. The details of how to obtain
the output options and the system configuration are explained in Vol III.
Sources of Output Information
During the processing of each event that is deemed to have signifi¬
cance an output message is placed on magnetic tape. The primary record
of events is referred to as the history tape. The history tape records
all move selections, target selections, boundary crossings, firings,
impacts, and status information such as out-of ammunition, response to
fire, line of sight, intelligence level, and recognition of target death
for each live unit.
Non-events are not recorded. For example, if a unit does not select
a target, a message Is not transmitted. The consequence of this approach
is that a very careful study of the input is required to determine if a
unit that does not appear to be taking part in the battle is in fact
present.
Non-Optional Reports
CARMONETTE produces six non-optional reports. Figure 73 is an
example of the Chronological Cumulative Casualties Report. An example
of the Target-Kill Report is shown in Fig. 74. The Operational-Statisti¬
cal Report is shown in Fig. 75, and the Ammunition Expenditure Report in
Fig. 76. Whenever a treatment is replicated, the average results of all
replications are summarized in the Treatment Summary Target Kill Report,
an example of which is in Fig. 77. An example of the Average Ammunition
Expenditure by Weapon Type Report is in Fig. 78.
180
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184
Fig. 76 - Example of Ammunition Expenditure Report
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BLUE AVERAGE AMMUNITION EXPENDITURE BY WEAPON TYPE
WEAPON TYPE AMMO 1 AMMO 2
1 2 6 7
13
35
36
41
42
44
45
44.0
45.3
196.0
45.3
11.7
20.0 11.3
13.7
21.3
180.0
18.0
0.Û
0.0 12.0 18.7
25.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
RED AVERAGE AMMUNITION EXPENDITURE BY WEAPON TYPE
WEAPON TYPE AMMO 1 AMMO 2
3
4
5
14
16
17
37
38
43 46
47
49
50
52
53
36.0
96.0
0.0 27.3
48.0
,7
11.7
15.0
24.0
252.0
7.3
168.0
165.0
219.3
3.3
0.0 40.0
20.0 28.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
FIr. 78 - Example of Average Anununition Expenditure
by Weapon Type Report
186
Optional Report
A very useful optional report is the chronological history report.
By requesting this option, most of the event messages placed on the event
history tape will be printed. The primary purpose of this option is to
ensure that the battle scenario is being followed. The event history
message contains two parts. The first part is the same for messages from
all sources within the battle model. The second part contains information
of interest concerning the specific event from which it is transmitted.
Part one of every message contains the side, unit, time of the event,
location of the unit, and the nature of the event. Part two of the mes¬
sages varies depending on the event and is summarized in Table 19.
Examples of chronological history report messages, as described in
Table 19, are contained in Fig. 79. The INTELLIGENCE Report is usually
the first message encountered when reading a CARMONETTE history. Samples
of this report are shown at ^). Line one is described in Event Code 3,
and is interpreted as follows:
ENUN DEAD - Enemy units known dead
LOS - In line of sight
IN SENRG - In sensor range
NKON - In LOS and not concealed
PP - Pinpoint (Intelligence level 4)
ERRPP - Erroneous pinpoint (Intelligence level 3)
NS - Nearest square (Intelligence level 2)
B /A --Before /After
Line two is described in Event Code 15. ^2, 3, and 4 pertain to intelli¬
gence levels, and the array after each shows which enemy units are at each
level. Each level is inclusive of those below it; that is, a unit at
level 4 is also known at levels 3 and 2. The array (bit pattern) is inter¬
preted using the technique described on page 153 of this volume. The
example in Fig. 79 is from the GRC version and the bit pattern is inter¬
preted from right to left. Line three is described in Event Code 26.
LOS and ENUN are as described above. SURV identifies the units against
which the observer is conducting surveillance. In the first message. Red
50 is not conducting surveillance against anyone because no weapon units
are initialized until time 0.5000. In the second message, Blue 32 has
its sensor restricted to the Red units indicated.
187
Table 19
EVENT HISTORY MESSAGE, PART II
Event code Message origin Message
8
9
10
11
Move select
Boundary crossing
Intelligence
report
(First line)
Impact firer
Impact tirer
(Reload after impact)
Impact firer
Impact target
Firing
Firing
New mission
Battle terminated
due to casualties
Squares moving from and to, time from
center to boundary of squate, velocity.
Square moved from, time to move bound¬
ary to center of new square, velocity,
concealment, cover, net cover and line
of sight after move.
Number of enemy units known dead, in
line of sight, in sensor range, not
concealed if in line of sight, and num¬
ber of enemy units pinpointed, erron¬
eously pinpointed, known to nearest
sqaure both before and after the sur¬
veillance. (Message from target acqui¬
sition. )
Firing weapon number, target number,
hit probability, kill probability,
number of rounds, firer dead prior to
impact.
Firing weapon number, target number,
hit probability, kill probability,
number of rounds, reload time.
Firing weapon number, target number,
hit probability, kill probability,
number of rounds, number of hits.
Firing weapon number, firing unit,
vehicles before and after, troops
before and after.
Firing weapon number, target number,
range, time of flight, reload time.
Firing weapon number, target number,
range, time of flight.
New order number, ortal representation
of mission word.
Side that caused termination, casualty
limit, number of casualties.
188
Table 19 cont'd
Event
code Message origin Message
12 Battle terminated
due to proximity
of forces
13 Target select
14 Area target
selected
15 Intelligence report
(Second line)
16 Artillery called
17 Dismount
18 Response to fire
Side that caused termination, location
indicated for proximity, number of
units within designated range.
Weapon number that made selection,
target selected, target location,
aim time, ammo type to be used.
Weapon number that made selection,
area location, aim/reaim time.
Bit patterns of enemy units, units
known to nearest square, erroneous
pinpoint and pinpoint.
Responding weapon number, responding
unit number, target area location,
aim time, target number, ammo type.
Carrier unit number, dismounting unit
number, number of vehicles in carrier
unit, number of men dismounting,
dismount time.
Total rounds received, total direct
fire, total indirect fire, suppres¬ sion status.
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Out of ammunition
Begin treatment
Begin replication
End replication
End treatment
Firing
Firing
Intelligence report (Third line)
Weapon number which fired last of ammo.
No message printed.
No message printed.
No message printed.
No message printed.
Suppressive fire. Firing weapon num¬
ber, target number, range, time of
flight, reload time.
Suppressive fire. Firing weapon num¬
ber, target number, range, time of
flight.
Bit pattern of enemy units in line of
sight, known dead, and under surveil¬
lance.
189
Table 19 cont'd
Message origin Message
Impact area fire
Impact area fire
Impact target
(Artillery)
Not used
Mount
Battle terminated
due to vehicle
losses
Helicopter called
Not used
Position disclosure
firing weapon number, target number,
hit probability, kill probability,
number of rounds, reload time.
Firing weapon number, target number,
hit probability, kill probability,
number of rounds, number of hits.
Firing weapon number, firing unit
number, vehicles and troops in target
unit before and after impact.
Mounting unit number, number of vehicles
in carrier unit, number of men mounting,
mount (remount) time.
Side that caused termination, vehicle
casualty limit, number of vehicle
casualties.
Helicopter unit number, target unit
number, target location, altitude.
Bit pattern of enemy units intelligence
change on firer, no info to erroneous
pinpoint, erroneous pinpoint to pin¬ point .
New altitude, new line of sight. Change altitude
19 c
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The next message generally encountered is New Mission, an example
of which is at and The form of this message is described in Event
Code 10. Also shown at © are examples of move messages. The first is
described in Event Code 1 and is printed when the unit moves from the
center of a square to its boundary. The second is described in Event
Code 2 and is printed when the unit crosses the boundary between the two
squares. Because of the large number of moves made by helicopter units,
only boundary crossing messages are printed for them. The sequence shown
at ® is that which occurs when the new mission is DISMOUNT. The form
of the message is described in Event Code 17. After the time required
to dismount has passed, the first message from the dismounted unit (Blue
31 in this case) is NEW MISSION. If the order had been REMOUNT rather
than DISMOUNT, the message would have been very similar and is described
in Event Code 31.
If a command unit has at least "Nearest Square" information on an
enemy unit that is on his artillery or helicopter call priorities, the
command unit may call for artillery and/or helicopter support. These
messages are shown at @ and are described by Event Codes 16 and 33 re¬
spectively.
When an area fire (artillery or mortar) unit answers a call for
support, or when a direct fire unit (tank, HAW, AD, etc.) elects to fire
at a target, a TARGET SEBECT message is written. Examples of this message
are at ® . The first message is for area fire weapons and is described
in Event Code 14. Event Code 13 describes the message for direct fire
units; the second message is an example.
After a unit completes aiming, it fires. Three examples of this
message are shown at (^. The first message is for an area fire weapon,
and the second for a direct fire weapon that does not require guidance.
Note that these messages are identical in form; they are described by
either Event Code 8 or 24. The reload time is shown since these weapons
may fire again before the round impacts. The third message is for a weapon
that cannot reload until after impact, Event Codes 9 and 25. The firing
of a direct fire weapon may disclose its position, hence when these
weapons fire, a POSITION DISCLOSURE message is printed; see ® and Event
Code 35.
193
When rounds impact, two types of messages are written, one for the
firer and one for the target; examples of these are at ®. If the rounds
impacting are from area fire weapons, the IMPACT (TARGET) messages for
all units in the impact area are written first; this message is described
in Event Code 29 and is shown in the first two messages. The IMPACT
(FIRER) message is then written as shown on the third line and described
in Event Code 6. Note that both the target number and probability of hit
are zero when the firer is an area fire weapon. The order of the messages
is reversed for direct fire weapons and is shown in the last four messages
at ©. Red 4 and 32 fired weapons that reload after impact (guided mis¬
siles), hence their messages show a reload time as described in Event
Code 5. Blue 13 fired a weapon that may be reloaded and fired again before
impact and receives the message described in Event Code 6. The final mes¬
sage is for the target and is as described in Event Code 7. The IMPACT
(FIRER) messages for Red 4 and 32 and for Blue 13 contain more information
than is readily apparent. By observing the probability of hit, P(H), and
the probability of kill, P(K), in the message, the gamer may determine the
follow’ing information:
P(H)0.00 P(K)0.00 : Firer fired on an erroneously pinpointed target. (Red 4)
P(H) ^1111 p(K)0'00 : Firer fired on a pinpointed target and missed. (Red 32>
P(H) .nn P(K) ,nn : Firer fired on a pinpointed target and hit (Blue 13) .
It is necessary to read the IMPACT(TARGET) message to see if the hit
killed the target. In the example, the hit killed 1 vehicle and 4 troops.
If a unit is killed while it has a round In flight toward a target,
one of two outcomes is possible. If the round in flight does not require
guidance, it will continue to impact, with a message similar to those for
Red 4 and 32 in ®, but the phrase FIRER DEAD PRIOR TO IMPACT will be
substituted for RELOAD TIME. If the round in flight does require guid¬
ance, the program will not enter the impact subroutine, and no message
will be printed.
194
In addition to killing when thoy impact, rounds fired at targets can
suppress those that are not killed. Examples of RESPONSE messages are
shown at @ and described in Event Code 18.
A unit always checks to determine if a round is the last one on hand
before it is fired. If it is, the OUT OF AMMO message described in Event
Code 19 and shown at © is printed. Note that the message is printed
before the FIRING message.
The final message printed is BATTLE TERMINATED which is shown at ^ .
In addition to time, the battle may be terminated for casualties (Event
Code 11), proximity of forces (Event Code 12), or vehicle losses (Event
Code 32).
If a selective history, which records only the events pertaining to
selected units is desired, this option may be selected in place of the
chronological history. An example of this report is in Fig. 80. The
information contained in the Average Ammunition Expenditure by Weapon
Type can be reported by time interval; an example of this optional report
is shown in Fig. 81.
The Range Interval Post Processor lists the number of engagements
(firings), number of rounds fired, troop and vehicle casualties for each
weapon on both sides, for all target classes that were engaged, in range A
intervals of a specified number of meters. Total accumulated casualties
are then listed by range interval from the longest to the nearest range.
The averages for all replications of the treatment follow. The listing
is for each replication of each treatment and is shown in Fig. 82.
Examples of Game Outputs
Selected messages and arrays from the game outputs from the GRC ver¬
sion are discussed below. When the gamer completes this discussion, he
should be able to interpret the complete game output contained in Vol IV.
The first array encountered in the game output is shown in Fig. 83.
The first line shows the parameters that controlled the game; these para¬
meters are described in detail in Vol III. Parameters of interest to the
195
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g. 80 - Example of Selective History Report
BLUE IVERAGE AtfMlNITICN EXPENDITURE BY WEAPON TYPE ANO TIME INTERVAL
TIME FfiCM a.CC-TT TO 4.9Ç99 1 2
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Fig. 81 - Example of Average Ammunition Expenditure
by Weapon Type by Time Interval Report
197
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Fig. 82 -
Example of the Range Interval Post
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Fig. 83 - Example of Run Parameters and Output Option Report
gamer are: the maximum game time - 20 minutes, the treatment number -
9901; and the Red break point - 41 vehicles. The second item encountered,
also shown in Fig. 83, is another of the job control parameters; it indi¬
cates that the gamer has requested a complete battle history of the first
replication of treatment 9901.
Selected messages from the battle history are shown in Figs. 84 through
86. As indicated earlier in this discission, these messages have two
parts: the first part shows the side, unit, time, and location; the second
part shows the event being recorded. The accompanying figures show select¬
ed messages that will further demonstrate how this part of the output is
read.
Dismounting and remounting are demonstrated by the units on the out¬
post and are shown in Fig. 84. After waiting the 1 minute prescribed by
its initiai order, Blue 5 receives a "New Mission;" order 2 is Dismount.
The second message shows that Blue 5 dismounted Blue 6 and that the time
required for this action is 0.5 minutes. At time 1.5000, dismounting is
complete, and both Blue 5 and 6 receive a new mission. Blue 6 starts its
move to the rear. CARMONETTE units move from the center of a square to
its boundary with the adjacent square and then from the boundary to the
center of the adjacent square. The first move is shown; it will require
0.2598 minutes for Blue 6 to move to the boundary. At time 17.0193,
Blue 6 determines that Blue 5 is in square 1247 and receives the order to
Remount (order 6). At 17.8123, Blue 6 receives the same order. The
second message at that time shows how much direct and indirect fire Blue
6 has received during the current neutralization cycle and shows that the
unit is partially neutralized by direct fire. At time 18.0113 there is
a Response message on Blue 5 similar to the previous one on Blue 6, and
a message Indicating that Blue 5 has started to remount the surviving
four members of Blue 6.
The actions of supporting units are shown in Fig. 85. The first mes¬
sage shows the company commander, Blue 49, has called for an attack heli¬
copter strike against Red 22, a HAW which is first on its helicopter call
priority, in square 3157. Since this target is also on his artillery call
200
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Fig. 84 - Example of Dismounting and Remounting
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Examples of Actions of Supporting Units continued
priority list, he also called for artillery, and Blue 36 responded. B35
responded to "Call Helo" and in accordance with order 94 started to move
to square 0656. Since helicopters move so rapidly, only the boundary
crossing messages are printed, one is shown at time 3.1035. The intel¬
ligence massage received by Blue 35 at 3.1387 is read as shown below:
Line 1 - He knows of no dead enemy units, ENUN DEAD 0
He has line of sight to no units, LOS 0
He has no enemy units in sensor range, IN SENKG 0
He had no enemy units pinpointed before this
message, and he has none now, PP BO/AO
The same is true of erroneous pinpoint, ERRPP BO/AO
He had one enemy unit located to nearest square
before message and still does, NS Bl/Al
Line 2 - This is a packed octal representation of the intel¬
ligence level at which he has the Red units. By
reading the 12 array from right to left, it is
determined he knows in which square Red 22 is located.
Line 3 - This is also a packed octal representation indicat¬
ing which units are in line of sight, are known
to be dead, and against which surveillance is to be conducted.
At time 3.2646 Blue 35 arrived af his first pop-up point (0656) at an
altitude of 40 feet. At 3.2871 he received a new mission (order 95)
which told him to pop-up until he gained line of sight to square 3157;
the 190 in his location shows the altitude to which he will have to go to
get the required line of sight. At 3.4365, he is told to stay for ½ min¬
ute or to fire one round (order 96). He had four targets (Red 1, 3, 19,
and 22) pinpointed at 3.6064. Although he had the target for which he
was called (R22) pinpointed, he selected a tank (R19), which is higher
on his target priority list, as a target. Blue 35 fired a HAW at Red 19
at a range of 2419 meters at time 3.6653; the time of flight of the round
is 0.2061. The position disclosure message at the same time shows what
Red units saw Blue fire; there were none. After 0.2061 minutes (time
3.8713), the round impacted. There are three possible outcomes rf this
impact and are indicated as shown:
204
Firer fired on erroneously pinpointed target - P(H)0.00 P(K)0.00
Firer fired on pinpointed target and missed - P(H)0.nn P(K)0.00
Firer fired on pinpointed target and hit - P(H)0.nn P(K)0.nn
In this instance Blue 35 missed. Had B35 scored a kill, the Impact (tar¬
get) message for Red 19 would have shown a difference in vehicles and/or
troops before and after. After waiting 0.1 minutes to assess his firing.
Blue 35 receives the order to drop to treetop level and move to the next
pop-ap point (order 97). At 4.7747 Blue 35 had popped up, pinpointed
Red i.2 and decided to engage it. The impact messages for time 6,1694
show that he was successful this time. Blue 35 got back to his staging
area at 7.1663 and landed; at 7.1665 he returned to "On Call" status
(order 93).
Blue 36 responded to Blue 49's call for artillery at the same time
that Blue 35 started on his mission; this response is shown in the last
s^x lines Fig. 85. Blue 36 fired at time 3.,2854. The rounds impacted
in square 3157 at 3.7075. Since weapon number 7 has a 300* 300 impact
area, its effects are assessed against all targets in squares 3056, 3156,
3256, 3057, 3157, 3257, 3058, 3158, and 3258. As can be seen by the
messages, there were four Red targets in the impact area.
The duel between Blue^S and Red 28 (Fig. 86) shows the result of
killing the firer during the flight of a guided missile. Blue 35 fired
a HAW at Red 28 ac cime 7.7678 with a time of flight of 0.1965 minutes.
Red 28 fired at Blue 35 at 7.8535 with a time of flight of 0.1067 minutes.
Blue 35 died at 719602 before his round impacted at 7.9643. A check of
the messages for that time period show? that the HAW did not impact. Had
the situation been reversed and the HAW impacted first, the rounds from
R28 would still have killed B35.
A message similar to the one below is printed at the end of the
battle history.
BATTLE TERMINATED^ MAXIMUM TIME 20 EXCEEDED
COMPUTER TIME THIS REPLICATION 342.465 SECONDS
LAST RANDOM NO, THIS REPLICATION 2762389485
205
Appendix A
INPUT LISTING
This appendix contains a listing of all inputs used in the sample
game. The input form can be identified by the header card and/or the
identification in cols 73 through 76; the format can be determined by
consulting the appropriate figure in the main body of Volume II. The
LAND deck is in coded form; a discussion of how it is organized and
interpreted is contained in Part III, Output.
207
990 i loa i un IDO 2200 MO OlO I oo
OI I00 M/Oo 02 Sqo SSqo 03 H 6g 5 2qo 09 2001530o
OS 2 o O I2 20 o 06 SUOlBOOg 07 60016000 13 0 3000
0 0 0
0 0 0
I M 15 16
17 IB 19
35 36
3000 >000 3000 2500 1500 3000
75 3000 75 3000
500 3QOo 23 SOQ 3000 29 5U0 3000 90 5g 2qOO
5q 1QOg 25 25
0 0 0 0
3 0 2 c, n n * 0 2 5 0 U 6 3ü2t.on*ü26006 3oi6nn»C)25oo6 6025006026006 6D26006Q25006 3026006026006 3026006L26006 I0 I 700^0(6009 10(70090(5009 10(70090(6009 20I9002009003 20()002009002 I0200090I0002
(020009010002
20(3003090009 (00600109000( 1007009015009
9 I 92 9 3 99 95 96 97
98 99
50 5 1 52 5?
600 550
(700 1700 2000 (50o
0 1000 0 1000 0 (000 0 I 100
950
1007009015009 (0070090(6009 IOoî 00 3U2 20Ó5 100 2 0 0 2 02 2005
|002on2U| 7009 (0030020(0002 lü|)009060002 (00.,00200)001 IU(7009UJS002
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569
570 571 572 573 5 7 H 575 576 577 578 579
580 58 I 582 583 58 H 585 586 587 588 589
590 591
592
593 S9H 595 596 597 598 599
600 *01 602 *03 40H 60S *06 607 608
60* 4 10 611 6|2 613 A I H 6 1 5 616 417 4 18 619
620 6 2 I 622 623 62« 625
232
IIPIWII LJ II. IJIIUÜIJ"» IWMWffl!"
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Appendix B
CONSIDERATIONS RELATING TO NUMBER OF ITERATIONS
REQUIRED FOR A SINGLE CARMONETTE TREATMENT
INTRODUCTION
Whenever a Monte Carlo (stochastic) model such as CARMONETTE is used
one is faced with the question of how many replications of a single game
are required to insure statistical confidence in the summarized data out¬
put by the model.
There are many statistical procedures that can be used to determine
the number of iterations of a single treatment required to achieve a
given confidence level. Since these methods are discussed in detail in
all texts on basic statistics, no effort has been made to reproduce them
here. If time and/or resources do not permit the use of one or more of
these statistical techniques, the following discussion by Norman W. Parsons
on the variability of the model provide a "Rule of Thumb" that can be
used in consideration of iterations required.
THE VARIABILITY OF CARMONETTE
CARMONETTE is a Monte Carlo computer simulation of small unit combat.
Random numbers are used extensively throughout the simulation. Uniform
random numbers are used to determine the success or failure of fctrget
acquisition and firing events and the course of action in some movement
decisions. Normally distributed random numbers are used to determine
the time duration of weapon aiming and loading events for which a mean
and standard deviation are entered as inputs. An analysis of a specific
CARMONETTE game showed that 1120 random numbers were used during 1 minute
of simulated battle time. The usual CARMONETTE game will simulate from
20 to 40 minutes of battle.
235
Preceding page blank
The stochastic nature of CARMONETTE has resulted in a perennial
question as to the number of replications of a specific battle that are
required to be assured of a stable set of outcomes of the battle. In an
attempt to answer this question an analysis has been made of two output
variables from a set of 30 replications of a single game situation played
during the course of the COMCAP II study projects.
The output variables of CARMONETTE can be grouped into three general
classes; the tota] number of personnel and vehicles killed for each side,
the total number of each type vehicle killed for each side, and the num¬
ber of vehicle types killed by each weapon type. It has been observed
that these types of outputs increase in variability in the order listed.
Figure B1 shows the results from 30 replications of treatment 4201
from COMCAP II in terms of the total number of Blue vehicles killed per
replication and the number of replications in which that number of kills
were realized.
Figure B2 shows the results of a statistical analyses of these game
results. The running means, that is the mean computed for all replica¬
tions up to and including the replication in question; and the specific
results of each replication are shown. The standard deviation of the
sample and the standard error of the mean, computed for the set of repli¬
cations up to and including the replication in question, are shown.
As i he figure shows the results of a single replication can be extreme
ly variable compared to the mean of several games. Deviations of 30% are
common and one game (replication 28) has a deviation of 57.5% from the
previous mean. It is interesting to note that the two extreme results
occurred ^n succession on replications 28 and 29. The standard deviation
is on the order of 20% of the mean after the tenth replication and has
a value of 22.6% for the set of 30 replications.
However it is noted that the variability of the mean, as measured by
the standard error of the mean, became reasonably stable after five
repli cat ions.
236
< (Pllilil.ipwiiiw M-qpamVRPlipiK >'«PÜ
Fig. B1 - Number of Replications with the Same Outcomes
237
.
Standard Error of the mean as a % of the mean
.1.1 lliyillPIIIJWl .,111..1
Fig. B2 - Variability of CARMONETTE, COMCAP II, Treatment
Total Blue Vehicles Killed - Beginning Strength 59
238
Standard deviation of the sample
However it is also noted that each additional replication can have
the effect of changing the previous mean by several percentage points.
Figure B3 shows the percent difference between the value of the running
mean and the final mean.
An analysis was made of the outcomes of the kills of a single type
target by a single type weapon, in this case Red tanks killed by the TOW
armed COBRA helicopter. Figure B4 shows the number of Red tanks killed
per replication and the number of replications in which that result
occurred. Note hat the two extreme values are 50% less and 75% greater
than the mean value.
Figure B5 shows the results of a statistical ar.alses of these data.
In these results the running mean shows apparent stability after the 7th
replication; however the standard deviation is now 30% or more of the mean.
The standard error of the mean is 13% at the 7th replication, is below 10%
at the 11th replication, but does not get below 5% by the 30ch replication.
It is apparent that this output, the kills of a specific type target by
a specific type weapon, shows more variability than the first output,
total kills on one side, examined.
The question as to the number of replications required in any given
project can now be seen to be dependent on the type of information desired
from the simulation and thé degree of accuracy desired in the results. If
the total number of kills on each side is sufficient to answer the ques¬
tions poised by the project then 5 to 7 replications appears to be suf¬
ficient to provide mean values with about a 5% standard error in the mean.
If a killer-victim scoreboard type of answer is required then 10 to 15
replications will be required to provide a 10% standard error in the
mean values. If a 5% standard error is desired in the mean values then
30 to 35 replications will be required.
riallHiiMäMük hlÜMHHttMMÜNiaKia ÉMÉMÉ1
Difference in means
Fig. B3 - Percent Difference of Running Mean
and Mean After 30 Replications
(Total Blue vehicles killed)
240
láAMlMaiÉHIÉÍiiaiâltt ...
Number of replications
Number of tanks killed by COBRA
Fig. B4 - Number of Replications with the Same Outcomes
241
Standard error of the mean as a %
of the mean
^,PRRPH|..PPI
0.225-
0.200.
0.175-
0.150-
0.125-
0.100-
0.075--
0.050.
0.025
Fig. B5
10.0
II 11
10 15 20
Number of replications
25 30
Variability of CARMONETTE, COMCAP II, Treatment 4201
(30 Red tanks - 6 COBRA)
242
4.0
(U rH &
3.0
<u
U
a o •H
2.0
•ri > 01 'O
•a
« T> c to t/>
1.0
Appendix C
air-mobility
class
air-mobility
data
altitude-change
thresholds
artillery
direction
of fire
average round
velocity
backward
extrapolation
battlefield
GLOSSARY
Any one of three groups of air units indexed 5, 6 or
7 having similar mobility performance characteristics.
Discussed in introduction under "Classification of
Units" and during STEP 6. Used on MOBILITY 3 and 4 and on UNIT 3.
Consists of altitude change thresholds, time required
for troop dismount and movement rates (forward speeds)
for each air-mobility index. Discussed in relation to and entered on MOBILITY 4.
Six measures, designated alpha 1 (aj) through alpha 6
(a6), by which ordered changes of altitude are defined
according to rate of descent or ascent, for each air-
mobility class. Discussed in relation to and entered on MOBILITY 4.
The alignment of grid squares over which the fire will
be assessed in determination of the orientation of the
impact,área of artillery shells. Discussed in intro¬
duction and in relation to and entered on WEAPON _.
The velocity (meters per second) of a projectile
averaged over its useful range. Discussed in relation to and entered on WEAPON 1.
The process by which the total tactical SD at range
zero is d-? «d from the minimum effective range of
a wear 'i .,t from the actual point-blank error. DiscuF elation to WEAPON 2.
lie r , ted terrain on which the computer simulation
takes pi.d( e and whose size must not exceed a graphic
iepresentetion of 60 columns and 63 rows of grid
squares into which the battlefield must be divided.
Ihe 60 by 63 grid squares need not be used in entirety;
however, the size of a square must not be less than the
unit coverage area and the total battlefield area must be large enough for the play of the battle.
243
concealment
conversion
table
concealment
index
contour flight
cover conversion
table
cover index
cross-country
trafficability
critical ranges
danger-state
table
decision cycle
dismount time
The tabulation of the largest area that an element of
a unit will present to an enemy observer if a unit of
a certain element-size index is situated in a terrain
grid square of a certain concealment index. Discussed
in relation to and entered on TERRAIN 2.
The average amount of protection in a terrain grid
square against hostile detection and indicated by
increasing integral numbers from 1 to 15 as conceal¬
ment increases, and recorded on TERRAIN 1 as the con¬
cealment index for each terrain grid square.
The path of an air unit following the undulations
indexed as 2, 3, or 4 in the ordered altitude table
(MOBILITY 5). Discussed in relation to MOBILITY 5.
A tabulation of the exposed area (to flat-trajectory
weapons) of the largest element in a unit if the unit
of a given element-size index is located in a terrain
grid square with a given cover index. Discussed in
relation to and entered on TERRAIN 2.
A number from 1 to 15 which indicates the average cover
available in a terrain grid square as protection from
direct fire, and recorded on TERRAIN 1 with increasing
indexes indicating increasing cover.
The condition of a grid square described on TERRAIN 1
by a 1, 2, or 3 indicating the difficulty involved in
movement across the square without using roads. Dis¬
cussed in relation to TERRAIN 1 and MOBILITY 2.
Two ranges that divide targets available to a given
unit into three range groups. Discussed in relation
to and entered on UNIT 4.
The tabulation of danger of units as seriously vulnerable,
moderately vulnerable, or invulnerable, to an attack by
a unit of a certain target index. Discussed in relation
to and entered on UNIT 4.
The time interval after which an inactive unit re¬
evaluates its situation and recorded on GAME.
The average time (in minutes) required for troops to
disembark from a carrier vehicle and be ready to fire,
and recorded on MOBILITY 2 for each ground mobility
index.
element
element-size
class
environmental
conditions
equally desirable
targets
escape points
fire qualifier
fire-response
class
first order
number
grid square
ground-mobility
class
One of the components of a unit.
Used to determine the ease with which an element may
be seen and the likelihood of being hit by enemy fires,
and assigned index numbers 0 through 9 to units on the
basis of the element area. Discussed in introduction
under "Classification of Units" and entered on UNIT 3.
Consist of the TERRAIN factors included explicitly, and
the implicit conditions (included in the units' opera¬
tional characteristics) of weather and time of day.
A description of identical targets that are located at
different ranges from which the nearest target will be
selected for fire unless WEAPON 1 indicates that fire
should be directed at target of greatest range.
The preselected locations to which a unit may move at
its fastest possible rate when it runs out of ammuni¬
tion for its main weapon. Discussed in relation to
UNIT 6 and 7 and entered on UNIT 7.
A qualifier, the numerical value which dictates the
number of shots from a unit's main weapon group. Dis¬
cussed in relation to and entered on UNIT 9.
Five groupings of units used to describe how a unit
responds or reacts to hostile fire. Fire-response
class 1 contains dismounted infantry, class 2 open
vehicles, class 3 lightly armored vehicles, class 4
heavily armored vehicles, and class 5 aircraft. Dis¬
cussed in introduction under "Classification of Units,"
UNIT 3 and 5. Entered on UNIT 3.
The reference number found in the left-hand column of
UNIT 9 and indicated on UNIT 10 as the first order for
each unit to follow.
One of the 60 by 63 divisions of the CARMONETTE battle¬
field, all of equal size.
Five or fewer groups into which all ground units on
both sides are divided. Index zero is used for dis¬
mounted infantry, and index 1 to 4 are used for the
remaining ground units. Each ground-mobility class
contains units having similar movement capabilities
that are different from those of other ground-mobility
classes. Discussed in introduction under "Classification
of Units." Used on MOBILITY 1 and 2. Entered on UNIT 3.
245
mm
ground-mobility
table
ground-slope
class
hold-fire range
impact area
information-
state change
informat ion-
state decay
information states
kind of fire
level flight
A tabulation on MOBILITY 2 of the emplacement times
and rates of movement of the ground-mobility classes for the five ground-slope classes.
A five way change in elevation from one grid square
to an adjacent grid square, defined by means of three
slope thresholds indicating slopes as uphill or down¬ hill and steep, moderate, or negligible.
A range entered on GAME indicating the range within
which a designated unit will start to fire on targets. If a unit knows that an enemy unit has fired and if
that enemy unit is on the unit's target priority list,
the unit will engage the enemy unit regardless of hold-fire range.
The average area covered by a one-round volley from
an artillery piece in a firing unit and having one of
the following four sizes of grid squares: 1 by 1,
1 by 3, 3 by 1, or 3 by 3. Discussed in introduction
and in relation to WEAPON 1 and 4. Entered on WEAPON 1.
The changing of intelligence state according to Markov
procedure using tables of probabilities and intelligence states. Discussed in STEP 3.
The changing state of a unit's intelligence, which
decays automatically one state for each time interval
during which the unit loses line-of-sight visibility
of a potential target. Discussed in STEP 3.
Four states of a unit's information about a target
defined as: (1) target's location unknown, (2) target
known to be located in a certain terrain grid square,
(3) target erroneously pinpointed within a grid square,
and (4) target correctly pinpointed. Discussed in introduction and STEP 3.
Indicated by order qualifier KiNI) and its numerical
value (0-7) as to location of target, suppression,
moving, etc. Discussed in relation to and entered on UNIT 9.
An aircraft ordered altitude flight at an altitude
above sea level, as indexed by 5, b, or 7 on MOBILITY 5.
24b
likelihood of A tabulation of MOBILITY 1 of as many as four different
moving probabilities per mobility index (indexed 0-7) for each
of four different movement doctrines. Also tabulated
on MOBILITY 1 are two decision times (in minutes): (1)
target assessment time; and (2) decision time for each
of the Red and Blue sides.
maximum altitude The altitude that aircraft in each air mobility class
may be expected to achieve, and limited to 4096 ft
above the highest terrain square. Entered on MOBILITY 3.
mobility class Eight groups of units, each of which possesses similar
rates of movement in terrain of various trafficability
and road conditions, with ascending and descending
slopes in various degrees. Discussed in introduction
under "Classification of Units." Used on all MOBILITY
forms.
mobility-class
i ndex
The numerical value from 0-7 used to indicate the
mobility of a unit. Entered on UNIT 3.
movement order Any one of four kinds of decisions designated by the
proword MOVE: (1) amount of movement and stopping per¬
mitted depending on such conditions as target's avail¬
ability, (2) details of aircraft flight, (3) movement
(probability) doctrine, and (4) choose speed from the
ordered-movement-rate table. Discussed in relation
to and entered on UNIT 9.
movement The movement decision-making process for four basic
doctrine tactical situations with the probability of moving
assigned to units in each situation (depending on the
unit's cover or not, and the main weapon's target
availability or not). Discussed in relation to
MOBILITY 1.
net cover Shelter or protection, either natural or artificial,
defined on the basis of a combination of the cover
index of a terrain grid square and the element-size
index of a unit. Discussed in relation to TERRAIN 2.
net cover index One of three integral numbers (1. 2, or 3) assigned
to each possible combination of terrain-grid-square
cover state and element index size: 1 for good cover
(good protection from fragmentation burst for dis¬
mounted infantry), 2 for fair cover, and 3 for negli¬
gible cover and quite exposed to fire, and recorded
on TERRAIN 2.
net cover table The tabular presentation on TERRAIN 2 of net-cover-
state indexes of each possible combination of cover
state and element-size index of a unit.
247
■ÉMU ükUÉiÉ ■MitfMiMIÉi
neutralization A period of time over which the incoming rounds will
interval be considered to affect the behavior of a unit and
to be applicable to both sides and all fire-response
classes. Discussed in relation to and entered on UNIT 5.
neutralization The evaluation of the number of incoming rounds in a
interval rounds neutralization interval considered to affect the _î_ c , . ** received
neutralization
weighting
factor
on-road
trafficability
on-road-
trafficability
index
opportunity
targets
ordered
altitude
ordered-altitude
index
ordered-movement rates
behavior of a unit.
An arbitrary weighting of each round based on the de¬
moralizing effect of that round, e.g., if a rifle
round is assigned a weight of 1, then a tank round may
be assigned a larger weight. Discussed in relation to and entered on WEAPON 1.
An environmental condition of terrain that describes
the rates of movement to each unit according to the
kinds of road in each terrain grid square and the
capabilities of the vehicles in the units. Discussed in relation to TERRAIN 1.
An integral number from 1 to 3 (or 0 indicating no
roads in the grid square) recorded on TERRAIN 1, with
best roads indexed 1 and worst roads indexed 3.
Targets selected in the priority indicated by its
target-priority list following List l, 2, or 3., WEAPON 5.
Any one of three specified altitudes for air units to
conduct either contour or level flight (i.e., three
altitudes for contour flights, and three for level
flights) recorded on MOBILITY 5; the specified
altitudes for contour flights refer to altitudes above
ground and those tor level flights refer to altitudes above ground zero.
Any of six numbers i rom 2 to 7 which order air units
to conduct either contour (index 2, 3, or A) or level
(index 5, 6, or 7) flights at specified altitudes.
Discussed in relation to and used on MOBILITY 5 and UNIT 9.
The seven prearranged rates of travel during the battle
air unite, and ground units, indicated by a number
from 1 to 7 and recorded on MOBILITY bj 1 denotes the
slowest rate and 7 the fastest.
248
orientation of
battlefield
out-of-
airanunition order
overkill
pinned down
pinpoint
locations
priority of
fire
probability of
indicating
death
proword
qualifier
qualifier
numerical
value
rounds per
trigger pull
rounds received
per neutrali¬
sation period
The way the 60 by 63 grid is placed on the battlefield
map so as to include the desired ground area.
An order for use of a uni t that expends all its main
weapon ammunition which can result in one of two
outcomes: continue its mission or withdraw immediately
to an escape point, indicated by no entry or X respectively on UNIT 6.
The wasteful use of a unit's ammunition on dead targets
in the absence of visual evidence of a target's death.
A description of a dismounted infantry unit or wheeled
vehicle that is under severe fire and does not move,
resulting in a reduction of its presented area. It
also ceases surveillance and firing. Discussed in relation to and used on UNIT 5.
A precisely and accurately known location of a target
in a terrain grid square. Discussed in introduction and in STEP 3.
Used with the qualifier PROR and value 1 to 7 in an
order to indicate which target-priority list a unit
is to use and whether dangerous targets are preferred.
Discussed in relation to WEAPON 5 and UNIT 9 and entered on these forms.
To be recorded on UNIT 8 for each vulnerability class
and provide a means to affect the "overkill" of a
unit. Discussed in relation to and entered on UNIT 8.
A four-lettered word such as SKIP, MOVE, STAY, DISH,
and REMO used at the beginning of an order on UNIT 9.
A four-lettered word used in the detailed order form
of UNIT 9 to give the condition or action of the order.
An integral number with limits defined according to
the qualifier and used to designate the action of
the qualifier. Discussed in relation to and used with UNIT 9.
The number of rounds fired each time one of the weapon types is fired. Entered on WEAPON 1.
An enumeration of the number of incoming rounds of
ammunition at a unit during a neutralization interval
done in order to consider the behavior (reaction) of the unit.
249
sensor c]asa
sensor index
sensor height
skip orders
slope thiesholds
solid angle
solid-angle
thresholds
standard altitude
increment
stay orders
A maximum of six classifications of a unit according
to its detection capabilities as a function of visual
devices, including human vision. Discussed
/ and in relatlon t0 SENS0R 1. Entered on all ohNSOR forms.
The integral value from 1 to 6 assigned to a unit as its sensor class and entered on UNIT 3.
The height in meters of each unit’s target-acquisition
device used for line-of-sight calculations for a unit
i™i^C?UÍr,Í and fire ,,irectly on a target. Entered on UNII 1 and 2.
Orders used to change the sequence of a unit's orders
on stated condition or unconditionally and indicated
by the proword SKIP with appropriate qualifiers and
UNlT^q* DiSLUHSecl 111 relation to and used with
Three values of uphill or downhill differences in
elevation used to determine the maneuverability from
one grid square to another and to define the limits
of the five slope classes. Discussed in relation to and entered on MOBILITY 2.
The angle subtended by the area that a target presents
to the sensor (i.e., a small target at a close range
is equivalent to a larger target at a greater range). Discussed in STEP 5. 6
Three values each tor non-firing and firing targets
by which changes in detection probabilities occur and
the solid angles are denoted. Discussed in relation to and entered on SENSOR 1.
A measurement of the vertical change of elevation ot
air units; the magnitude of this increment (in feet)
should be large enough to be militarily significant,
but small enough to be accomplished in a length of
time compatible with the time required for other simu¬
lated events. Discussed in relation to and entered on MOBILITY 3.
Used to keep the location of a unit on the battiefield
for firing and indicated by the proword STAY with
appropriate qualifiers and values. Discussed in rela¬ tion to and entered on UNIT 9.
A unit of measure for size of solid angles. steradian
suppressive
fire area
surveillance
interval
target-assessment
time
total tactical
standard
deviation
target class
target square
target-priority
list
time of flight
The selected integral multiples of grid squares in each
direction from the designated target grid square for
delivery of artillery unit fire and entered on the
target-priority lists for each side. Discussed in
relation to and entered on GAME.
A selected interval of time after which the entire
battlefield is evaluated. It should be neither so
long that a target could cross a square in a unit's
line-of-sight without the unit reacting nor so short
that significantly more computer time is necessary
for the battle simulation. Discussed in relation to and entered on SENSOR 1.
The prescribed time for a firing unit to evaluate the
damage after a round has been fired at a target and
impact has occurred, and entered on GAME.
The dispersion of a weapon computed by the formula:
_A where A = target area
r 2TTlog(l-Pr) pr = hit probability
Discussed in relation to and entered on WEAPON 2.
A grouping of units that present targets that would be
of the same priority to the different hostile weapon
types used to describe the relative desirability of
units as to targets for different hostile weapon types,
and described by an index from 1 to 16, corresponding
to 16 different target classes and recorded on UNIT 3
for each of the two forces, (i.e., the unit's vulner¬
ability to the various hostile weapons and the fire¬
power possessed by the unit: the greater the fire¬
power of a target, the more desirable to destroy it).
Eiscussed in introduction under "Classification of
Unit" and in relation to WEAPON 3 and 5, and UNIT 3 and 4.
The grid square within which the target is located.
One, two, or three lists of preferable or priority
targets are presented by each non-artillery weapon
type assembled on WEAPON 5 separately for the two
forces and used to determine opportunity targets for units during the battle.
The time required for a round of a weapon type, com¬
puted from the average round velocity (from WEAPON 1)
and used to determine time of impact at targets of specific ranges.
251
terrain data
threshold for
response
treatment
unit
unit area
vulnerability
class
vulnerability-
class index
vulnerability
state
The six factors of elevation, height of vegetation,
cover, concealment, cross-country trafficability, and
on-road trafficability. One set of inputs must be
prepared describing the terrain for each factor. Dis¬ cussed in STEP 3 and entered on TERRAIN 1.
Levels that indicate severity of reaction to hostile
fire as indicated by number of rounds received per
interval of time which would force a unit of the class to respond in the indicated manner.
A combination of the independent variables in the experiment.
One of not more than 48 elements of the force on either
side that possesses no more than 63 tillable elements,
each element having the same vulnerability, mobility,
detection ability, location, and orders. Discussed in STEP 8 and entered on UNIT forms.
The average area occupied by the unit when deployed;
e.g., a platoon in defense occupies more ground than
a platoon in the attack. (This number has a meaning
only in the case of hitting the area with direct-fire
fragmentation ammunition.) Discussed in relation to and entered on UNIT 2.
Any of 12 classifications of units whose common charac¬
teristic is that the units in any one class have
essentially similar vulnerabilities appreciably dif¬
ferent from the vulnerabilities in another class.
Discussed in introduction and in relation to WEAPON 3
and 4 and to UNIT 3 and 4. Entered on UNIT 3.
One of 12 integral numbers (1 to 12) recorded in
UNIT 3 and assigned to a unit as its vulnerability
class with no ranking implied by the numbers. See vulnerabili t y c lass.
One of three conditions indicating the relative
vulnerability of each target class— vulnerability
class combination for each of three range groups
(defined by two critical ranges) and tabulated (in
total) as the danger-state table (UNIT 4).
252
weapon type One of a maximum of 56 types of weapons with the same
characteristics, of which 1 to 12 are reserved for
artillery piecea or mortars,13 to 34 for weapons with
fragmenting round, and 35 to 56 for weapons with non-
fragmenting projectiles and whose characteristics are listed on WEAPON 1.
weapon group One of a maximum of four independent sets of weapons
per unit with any quantity of one kind of weapon type
per weapon group. See discussion for UNIT 2.
253