18
ANALYSIS Mapping regional economic activity from night-time light satellite imagery Christopher N.H. Doll * , Jan-Peter Muller 1 , Jeremy G. Morley 1 Department of Geomatic Engineering, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom Received 19 December 2003; received in revised form 5 March 2005; accepted 7 March 2005 Available online 23 May 2005 Abstract The recognition that the elements of the danthropoceneT play a critical role in global change processes means that datasets describing elements of the socio-economic environment are becoming increasingly more desirable. The ability to present these data in a gridded format as opposed to the traditionally reported administrative units is advantageous for incorporation with other environmental datasets. Night-time light remote sensing data has been shown to correlate with national-level figures of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Night-time radiance data is analysed here along with regional economic productivity data for 11 European Union countries along with the United States at a number of sub-national levels. Night-time light imagery was found to correlate with Gross Regional Product (GRP) across a range of spatial scales. Maps of economic activity at 5 km resolution were produced based on the derived relationships. To produce these maps, certain areas had to be excluded due to their anomalously high levels of economic activity for the amount of total radiance present. These areas were treated separately from other areas in the map. These results provide the first detailed examination of night-time light characteristics with respect to local economic activity and highlight issues, which should be considered when undertaking such analysis. D 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Night-time light satellite imagery; Economic activity; Geographic information; Mapping; Scale 1. Introduction The need to link human and natural physical sys- tems for a greater understanding of global change requires socio-economic datasets, which can be easily integrated with other sources of environmental data. Socio-economic data are usually provided on a national basis. While this is a convenient administra- tive unit to collect the data, it may be an inappropriate 0921-8009/$ - see front matter D 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2005.03.007 * Corresponding author. Present address: Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia Univer- sity, 61 Route. 9W, P.O. Box 1000, Palisades, NY 10964, United States. Tel.: +1 845 365 8963; fax: +1 845 365 8922. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (C.N.H. Doll), [email protected] (J.-P. Muller), [email protected] (J.G. Morley). 1 Tel.: +44 20 7679 2740; fax: +44 20 7380 0453. Ecological Economics 57 (2006) 75 – 92 www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon

Mapping regional economic activity from night-time light satellite imagery

  • Upload
    unu

  • View
    0

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon

Ecological Economics

ANALYSIS

Mapping regional economic activity from night-time light

satellite imagery

Christopher N.H. Doll*, Jan-Peter Muller1, Jeremy G. Morley1

Department of Geomatic Engineering, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom

Received 19 December 2003; received in revised form 5 March 2005; accepted 7 March 2005

Available online 23 May 2005

Abstract

The recognition that the elements of the danthropoceneT play a critical role in global change processes means that datasets

describing elements of the socio-economic environment are becoming increasingly more desirable. The ability to present

these data in a gridded format as opposed to the traditionally reported administrative units is advantageous for incorporation

with other environmental datasets. Night-time light remote sensing data has been shown to correlate with national-level

figures of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Night-time radiance data is analysed here along with regional economic

productivity data for 11 European Union countries along with the United States at a number of sub-national levels.

Night-time light imagery was found to correlate with Gross Regional Product (GRP) across a range of spatial scales.

Maps of economic activity at 5 km resolution were produced based on the derived relationships. To produce these maps,

certain areas had to be excluded due to their anomalously high levels of economic activity for the amount of total radiance

present. These areas were treated separately from other areas in the map. These results provide the first detailed examination

of night-time light characteristics with respect to local economic activity and highlight issues, which should be considered

when undertaking such analysis.

D 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Night-time light satellite imagery; Economic activity; Geographic information; Mapping; Scale

0921-8009/$ - see front matter D 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2005.03.007

* Corresponding author. Present address: Center for International

Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia Univer-

sity, 61 Route. 9W, P.O. Box 1000, Palisades, NY 10964, United

States. Tel.: +1 845 365 8963; fax: +1 845 365 8922.

E-mail addresses: [email protected] (C.N.H. Doll),

[email protected] (J.-P. Muller), [email protected]

(J.G. Morley).1 Tel.: +44 20 7679 2740; fax: +44 20 7380 0453.

1. Introduction

The need to link human and natural physical sys-

tems for a greater understanding of global change

requires socio-economic datasets, which can be easily

integrated with other sources of environmental data.

Socio-economic data are usually provided on a

national basis. While this is a convenient administra-

tive unit to collect the data, it may be an inappropriate

57 (2006) 75–92

C.N.H. Doll et al. / Ecological Economics 57 (2006) 75–9276

unit on which to conduct environmental analysis. This

fundamental difference in data collection schemes is

one of the major obstacles preventing more wide-

spread integration of socio-economic datasets with

environmental datasets. Raster datasets also offer the

flexibility to perform analysis at more convenient

aggregated spatial units such as ecological zones or

watersheds.

This paper builds upon previous work to map

economic activity and carbon dioxide emissions

from night-time light satellite data (Doll et al.,

2000) and preliminary assessments of sub-national

economic characteristics from space (Doll, 2003). In

the former study, the first ever global map of GDP

was produced using a country level lit area–GDP

relationship. This map had a spatial resolution of 18.Here, the radiance-calibrated dataset was used in

place of the time frequency composite data (Elvidge

et al., 1997) employed previously. This facilitates the

consideration of the intensity of light recorded at the

sensor rather than just a simple areal estimation of

light coverage. Linear relationships between radiance

and Gross Regional Product (GRP) are observed for

a sub-set of countries within the European Union as

well as the United States. These relationships exhibit

a number of key features, which suggested that the

overall relationship is more complex than first

thought. It appears that the use of a single coeffi-

cient to disaggregate the national GDP statistic may

not be accurate for all areas. Bearing these consid-

erations in mind, spatially disaggregated maps of

GDP were produced and are analysed here. These

results are more detailed than those published in

Ecological Economics by Sutton and Costanza

(2002). These authors outlined a method of estimat-

ing global economic activity from night-time light

radiance collected by the Defense Meteorological

Satellite Program’s Operational Linescan System

(DMSP-OLS). The results of their appraisal of the

market economy were compared to an assessment of

so-called non-market capital (as defined by Sutton

and Costanza, 2003) through the use of ecosystem

service valuations and a satellite derived land-use

map.

In the night-time lights dataset, remote sensing

stands uniquely poised to contribute to providing

gridded information on socio-economic parameters.

This comes at a time when debate as to what are the

socio-economic drivers of global change and how

these can be best represented is gaining currency

among global change research scientists.

2. Scaling issues

The results presented here provide a further insight

into the considerations of using DMSP-OLS night-

time light imagery to disaggregate GDP data at the

sub-national scale. In the same way that Konarska et

al. (2002) highlighted the potential discrepancies in

ecosystem services valuation by comparing 1 km

IGBP and 30 m NLCD landcover classifications, so

too does the scale of analysis play an important role

with respect to making valuations of the market econ-

omy. In this case, the problem is less straightforward

than the fragmentation of hitherto homogenous land-

cover units into smaller parcels of potentially high

ecosystem service value.

The importance of scale as a concept is central to

developing an understanding of human-environment

interactions. While scale can have spatial, temporal,

quantitative or analytical dimensions, the diversity of

disciplines incorporated into the Human Dimensions

of Global Change may only use a sub-set of these

domains to understand their subject. Gibson et al.

(2000) provide a comprehensive review of the con-

cept and its use in different subject areas. In practice,

they identify scale issues as having four universal

theoretical areas:

1. How scale, extent and resolution affect the identi-

fication of patterns;

2. How diverse levels on a scale affects explanation

of phenomena;

3. How theoretical propositions derived about phe-

nomena at one level may be generalised to another

level;

4. How processes can be optimised at particular

points or regions on a scale.

This study has a bearing on the first three of these

points. The use of multi-scale data introduces issues,

which need to be taken into consideration when

results are analysed. In particular, the Modifiable

Areal Unit Problem (MAUP) and the ecological fal-

lacy are two complementary themes which frequently

C.N.H. Doll et al. / Ecological Economics 57 (2006) 75–92 77

occur in spatial analysis, but are usually overlooked

due to the lack of a general robust solution. These two

issues are particularly pertinent in this analysis since

the relationships derived from the data will be used as

an input to the map production procedure at a different

spatial scale.

The MAUP consists of two separate but closely

related components, which have been observed to

cause a variation in statistical results depending on

the spatial arrangement of zones or the scale used to

analyse the data. These are known as scale and zoning

effects. The scale effect occurs when different results

are observed from the same data at different spatial

resolutions (Wrigley et al., 1996). This arises due to

the aggregation of the data into larger units (e.g.

enumeration districts–wards–counties–regions). In

addition to this, different results can also be produced

where the scale of analysis remains constant but con-

stituent areas are aggregated in a different way or zone

boundaries are altered.

In an analytical environment where results are

known to vary depending on the scale or zoning

structure, it follows that erroneous inferences can

be made from data that are generalised from one

scale to another. It has three manifestations depend-

ing on the direction of the scale change. The indivi-

dualistic fallacy occurs when a macro-level

relationship is imputed from a micro-level (indivi-

dual) relationship. Cross-level fallacies describe

those inferences made about one sub-population

from another at the same scale of analysis. Finally,

the ecological fallacy is the opposite of the indivi-

dualistic fallacy and describes those inferences made

about the fine resolution from the coarse resolution

(Cao and Lam, 1997).

The aim of this study was to produce and examine

a set of relationships which can be applied to night-

time light data in order to produce a disaggregated

map of GDP. In order to do this, the radiance–GRP

relationship was examined across a range of sub-

national scales. A multi-scale approach is anticipated

to facilitate the identification of MAUP effects that

exist with this type of analysis and what implications

this has with respect to creating an accurate map. A

discussion of these effects in relation to the analysis

of these specific data is given in a complementary

paper (Doll et al., 2004) presented at the XXth ISPRS

Congress.

3. Datasets and method

3.1. Night-time light satellite data

The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program ori-

ginated in the mid-1960s with the objective of collect-

ing worldwide cloud cover on a daily basis (Kramer,

1994). The DMSP satellite flies in a sun-synchronous

low earth orbit (833 km mean altitude) and makes a

night-time pass typically between 20.30 and 21.30

each night (Elvidge et al., 2001). The Operational

Linescan sensor was initially used for producing

night-time cloud imagery and as such required a

high level of sensitivity—some four orders of magni-

tude greater than other well-known sensors such as the

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s

(NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer

or Landsat Thematic Mapper (Elvidge et al., 1997), a

feature that makes it unique among environmental

remote sensing satellites. Although not the primary

application for the sensor, it was also discovered early

on that city lights as well as gas flaring, shipping

fleets and biomass burning could all be detected in

the absence of cloud (Croft, 1978). Night-time light

imagery are available in a number of different data

products, a comparison of which is given by Elvidge

(2002). The 1996–1997 radiance calibrated product

was used for this study, a technical description of

which is given in Appendix A.

3.2. GDP data

European economic data were purchased from

Eurostat, the statistical body of the European Com-

mission. Regional accounts were compiled in accor-

dance with the European System of Integrated

Economic Accounting (ESA). The ESA is fully con-

sistent with the worldwide guidelines on national

accounting, the 1993 System of National Accounts

(UNSD, 2003). The UN statistical commission has

unanimously approved the system and it is the inter-

national standard for the compilation of national

accounts statistics (Eurostat, 2002a). Sub-national

gross state product (GSP) data for the US were down-

loaded from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis

(BEA, 2002). It is defined the value added in produc-

tion by the labour and property located in a state.

Although there are small methodological differences,

C.N.H. Doll et al. / Ecological Economics 57 (2006) 75–9278

it is often considered as the state counterpart of the US

GDP figure (BEA, 2003). A more general term for

GSP would be the GRP (Gross Regional Product).

GRP is used here to define the contribution of a sub-

national areal unit such as generic administrative

region or even square pixel areas to the national

GDP total. The term GSP is a specific data product

from the BEA is only used when explicitly referring to

a state of the US as opposed to aggregations of states.

Statistical reporting in the European Union is done

according to the Nomenclature of Units for Territorial

Statistics (NUTS) system. The NUTS is a five-level

hierarchical classification based on three regional

levels and two local levels. Each member state is

divided into a number of NUTS-1 regions, which in

turn are divided into a number of NUTS-2 regions and

so on. There are 78 NUTS-1 regions, 210 NUTS-2

and 1093 NUTS-3 units within the current 15 EU

countries (Eurostat, 2002b). In spite of the desire to

create a single, coherent structure of territorial distri-

bution across Europe, NUTS regions of a given level

can differ substantially in size and shape between

countries. For instance, mainland Portugal is repre-

sented by a NUTS-1 region along with Madeira and

the Azores, which are much smaller both in terms of

size and economic importance. France by contrast,

divides mainland France into eight NUTS-1 regions

while including its overseas territories all aggregated

as an additional NUTS-1 region and individually at

the NUTS-2 level. Most countries already have a

series of administrative regions, which need only be

assigned a NUTS level. This can result in significant

differences between countries. At the NUTS-3 level,

Germany has many more regions than any other

country. With around 450 regions (Kreise), it has

five times as many NUTS-3 regions as France despite

having only two-thirds of its land area. Consequently,

these regions are much smaller than equivalent

NUTS-3 regions in other countries.

There are essentially two methods available to

subdivide a national territory into regions. Normative

regions are units that are the result of political deci-

sions. They are derived according to the functions that

area sustains and the population required to carry out

those functions. They are largely determined accord-

ing to political, historical and cultural factors (Euro-

stat, 2002c). Alternatively, there are analytical regions,

which are determined by the homogeneity of some

human or physical geographical factor. Hence regions

may be determined by factors such as altitude, land

cover type or homogeneous economic types. NUTS

regions are primarily based on the normative classifi-

cation and favor units of a general character; that is to

say, one not dominated by a single activity (Eurostat,

2002c). In this study, data were collected for the three

regional NUTS levels (1–3). The digital boundaries of

these regions were downloaded from United Nations

Environment Programme’s (UNEP) Global Resource

Information Database (GRID) data collection in Gen-

eva (UNEP, 2003). Please note that, although the

economic data used in this paper are the best available

official figures from national and supra-national

reporting agencies, these data are taken das isT and

no assessment has been made of their accuracy.

Further comments concerning the use of GDP data

are made in Section 6.1 of this paper.

The night-time light imagery was geo-rectified to

the digital boundaries dataset by matching the projec-

tion parameters of each dataset. The Lambert Equal

Area Azimuthal projection was chosen for the two

continental scale datasets of North America and Eur-

ope. In each case, the dataset of vectorised boundaries

was intersected with the night-time light data in order

to identify those pixels, which are contained within

the administrative boundary under consideration. This

scheme minimised the inclusion of those pixels,

which are affected by blooming from coastal areas.

Blooming is a phenomenon of night-time light ima-

gery where illuminated areas are overestimated as a

result of the large pixel size from the OLS sensor

being unable to resolve sub-pixel light sources. Geo-

location errors in the compositing process and illumi-

nated radiance values recorded over water bodies as a

consequence of reflection from adjacent illuminated

land area also contribute to the blooming effect

(Elvidge et al., 1997, 2001). The latter is the most

obvious manifestation of blooming. The inclusion of

these pixels result in an overestimation of both lit area

and radiance of administrative boundaries in coastal

zones.

4. Sub-national radiance–GRP correlation results

Each European country was tested for at least one

NUTS level depending on the availability of data and

C.N.H. Doll et al. / Ecological Economics 57 (2006) 75–92 79

the NUTS configuration of that country. The US states

were compared to regions defined by the US Census

Bureau. The results refer to the 1997 set of economic

data, as this is co-temporal with the night-time light

data. Strong positive correlations between total radi-

ance and GRP were observed for all the countries

tested at the finest level of observation. A number

of variations were identified around this basic model.

Results are presented for 11 EU countries and the US.

A summary of results is shown in Table 1.

The sub-national analysis revealed linear relation-

ships between total brightness and GRP. While this

was observed for all countries, only two countries

could have a single relationship applied to all of its

regions. Other countries exhibited at least one outlier,

which did not appear to fit the derived linear model.

Further analysis for some countries revealed the pre-

sence of two regional relationships. In those cases,

outlying points were excluded from the application of

the derived relationship and dealt with separately. In

the figures that appear throughout this paper, triangles

denote those points that were excluded from both the

regression and the associated statistics that accompany

the graphs. The number of valid points (n) used to

derive the relationship shown on the graph is given in

the caption for each graph. Map production considera-

Table 1

Summary of results for Europe and the United States

Country # Valid

points

Gradient R2 Outliers

(all)

Germany (West

including Berlin)

37 0.2103 0.94 –

Ireland 10 0.2026 0.97 –

UK 38 0.1652 0.85 1 (2)

Netherlands 54 0.1447 0.98 –

Denmark 13 0.1194 0.87 2

Italy 118 0.1097 0.95 1 (2)

Greece 61 0.1011 0.98 –

Belgium (Vlaams) 22 0.0993 0.98 (1 Brussels)

France 94 0.0986 0.75 2 (3)

Germany (East

excluding Berlin)

8 0.0923 0.97 (1 Berlin)

Spain 40 0.0539 0.88 2 (3)

Belgium (Wallonia) 19 0.0577 0.98 (1 Brussels)

Portugal 30 0.0565 0.99 1 (2)

USA 55 0.0499 0.96 2 (4)

The outliers column refers to the number of outliers with the total

number of points including aggregated points given in brackets (e.g.

Paris, Hauts-de-Seine and its higher level NUTS region).

tions necessitate that the derived relationships run

through the origin so as to be consistent with zero

radiance equating to zero GRP. Without this con-

straint, all but the highest radiance values would

have negative GRP values in the output map.

4.1. Extreme outliers

Fig. 1 shows how the two outlying Parisian depar-

tements have combined to produce the anomalous Ile-

de-France NUTS-1 region, which has a GRP far

higher than other regions of similar radiance. The

Parisian region is not represented at the NUTS-2

level, its NUTS-1 Ile de France region is instead

directly composed of eight small departments

(NUTS-3) around Paris. In this case, the two outlying

regions have been carried through the aggregation

process. Excluded from Fig. 1 are NUTS-1 points of

the French overseas territories: Ile de la Reunion,

Martinique, Guadeloupe and French Guyana.

The presence of such extreme outliers considerably

influenced the unconstrained NUTS-1 relationship,

where there were fewer points to mitigate its impact.

In such instances, the intercept can be very high,

which prevents extrapolation to smaller scales. It is

for this reason that the derived relationships were

constrained to go through the origin. Considering

just the gradient of the slopes, the NUTS-1 and all

NUTS-3 regions are most similar ( y =0.111x),

whereas NUTS-2 is virtually identical to the GDP/

total-radiance figure computed for the whole of

France ( y =0.128x). The actual NUTS-1 gradient

lies in between these lines.

4.2. Offset outlier

The graph of total state radiance and GRP (Fig. 2)

reveals that there are two major outliers within the

US: California and New York. Their effect can be

seen to be carried through to their respective regions

of the Far West and Mideast. Among the most

bradiantQ states, neither has a total radiance value

higher than that of Texas, while Florida and Illinois

are also of comparable total radiance. These three all

lie along the main trendline with the other states. The

regression has excluded California, New York and

their regions. This gives a gradient of 0.0499, which

is the lowest of any country analysed, and, therefore,

Fig. 1. Total radiance–GRP scatterplot for France (n =121).

C.N.H. Doll et al. / Ecological Economics 57 (2006) 75–9280

assuming parity between the US Dollar and the Euro,

the United States appears to have the lowest amount

of economic activity per unit radiance for those states

in the regression.

4.3. Multiple relationships

One of the most interesting relationships was dis-

covered when analysing countries with strong histor-

ical or cultural separations. Prima facie analysis of

Germany revealed an interesting distribution of

NUTS-1 regions, which appear to describe a sigmoi-

dal curve while the NUTS-2 regions remain largely

linear. In particular, there are two sets of two NUTS-1

Fig. 2. Total radiance–GRP scatterplot US states and aggregated regio

points, which have similar GRP for different total

radiance values. The geographical distribution of

these points and its constituents suggested that this

was an actual feature of the relationship rather than an

artifact of the MAUP.

Since reunification in 1990, Germany has had to

integrate two very different economies under one

political system. This difference in economic produc-

tivity still existed during the mid-1990s, which can be

seen in the data. If one re-analyses the data in Fig. 3 in

the context of its Cold War boundaries, then it

becomes apparent that there are two separate relation-

ships at work within the unified Germany. The points

lying in the former East Germany occupy a fraction of

ns defined by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (n =55).

Fig. 3. Total radiance–GRP scatterplot divided according to the boundaries of the former East Germany (n =8) and West Germany (n =37

including Berlin).

C.N.H. Doll et al. / Ecological Economics 57 (2006) 75–92 81

the radiance range (Fig. 3). The gradient for East

Germany is half the magnitude of those areas in the

former West Germany. In fact, the distribution of

points for the former East Germany is of the same

type as France and Denmark. Berlin is the outlying

point, whose position lies among the points of West

German cities. Despite its location, Berlin (specifi-

cally West Berlin) has always been economically

more akin to West German cities due to its subvention

from West Germany for much of the Cold War. An

interesting feature of the radiance map of Germany is

that it has a relatively small range of radiance values

for a country with such a large economy. Radiance

values peak at around 715�10�10 W cm2 Am�1 sr�1,which is considerably less than other large countries

in Europe or America. It is due to this relatively small

amount of radiance that West Germany has the stee-

pest gradient of any country tested.

Belgium was the other country to exhibit this

feature. Brussels, the capital, is only included at the

NUTS-1 level. It occupies the position of a major

outlier and Belgium could be classified as one of

the countries belonging to those in the major outlier

model of Section 4.1. However, when Brussels was

excluded from the analysis, it became apparent that

there are two distinct relationships present. These two

lines corresponded to the French speaking Wallonia

region and the Flemish speaking Vlaams Gewest

region, which demonstrates that Felmish areas have

a higher level of economic activity per unit of

observed radiance than in the French region.

4.4. Single relationship

The Netherlands is as close to the ideal linear result

as might be expected. The Netherlands exhibited the

strongest relationship of all the countries tested in the

sense that the relationships at different NUTS levels

are very similar (Fig. 4). This suggests that the Dutch

NUTS areas seem to be less susceptible to MAUP

effects than other countries examined. The corollary

to this is that countries that have a large amount of

scatter at the lowest regional level of analysis (usually

NUTS-3) will have a greater chance of different rela-

tionships being derived at higher levels of aggrega-

tion. Clearly, if there is a perfect R2=1 linear

relationship at NUTS-3, then this will be preserved

no matter how these regions are aggregated. Crucially,

however, the same thing cannot be said when disag-

gregating a relationship since an R2=1 result at an

aggregated level could have arisen by chance. While

the likelihood may be small, examples presented here

of how areal units can combine together to give

spurious results should be considered when drawing

conclusions about regions at different scales.

In addition to this, examining the NUTS-2 gross

regional product by sector (Fig. 5) reveals that these

regions are also well balanced with respect to their

distribution of GRP generating sectors. That is, in

order to obtain such a graph, each region must have

the same proportion of each type of economic sector.

The scatterplots for each country shown in Sec-

tions 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, and 4.4 are essentially the combi-

Fig. 4. Total radiance–GRP scatterplot for the Netherlands (n =54).

C.N.H. Doll et al. / Ecological Economics 57 (2006) 75–9282

nation of these sub-relationships. The general trend

reported for each country exists because the adminis-

trative units used are a combination of different land-

use types and therefore different sectors of the econ-

omy. Outliers occur where the administrative unit in

question is heavily dominated by one single economic

sector. This is usually the service sector of an urban

area. Large urban areas tend to dominate their respec-

tive NUTS region because the normative criteria used

to define NUTS regions will necessarily isolate the

city as a region. The NUTS-3 region of Paris is very

small compared to other NUTS-3 regions in France.

These areas are exceptions; most NUTS-3 areas

adhere to the preference for generality (Eurostat,

2002b) and incorporate towns, industrial and rural

Fig. 5. Total radiance versus NUTS-2 level GRP

areas. They are therefore less likely to be outliers. In

this sense, traditional political boundaries can be quite

useful for identifying areas where a relationship

would not be applicable.

5. Using relationships to create spatially

disaggregated maps

In producing a map of this nature, one must con-

sider how sensible it is create a map at a spatial

resolution where the subject of the map starts to

loose its intuitive credibility. Addressing socio-eco-

nomic issues such as economic activity is one such

application where such concerns become important.

by economic sector for the Netherlands.

C.N.H. Doll et al. / Ecological Economics 57 (2006) 75–92 83

The main factors in choosing a spatial resolution

for the map were based not only on what the map

aimed to display but also on the technical specifica-

tions of the DMSP-OLS sensor. Firstly, although the

night-time data has a nominal resolution of 1 km, this

is resampled from 2.8 km. It therefore makes sense to

aggregate up rather than use the finest resolution

data. This also reduces any noise effects present in

the data. While the relationship between cumulative

radiance and GRP has been demonstrated to be con-

sistent from the NUTS-3 level up to NUTS-1, an

unknown factor is how far the relationship can be

extrapolated in the other direction (NUTS-3 to finer

scales) before it becomes invalid. Besides the

unquantified micro-scale relationship, there is a desire

to maintain an aggregate nature to the GRP figures in

the map. As has been shown in Fig. 5, different

relationships exist between the different economic

sectors and total night-time radiance. The derived

relationships are an aggregate of these sector combi-

nations. Keeping the map resolution sufficiently

coarse avoids issues of sector specific GRP represen-

tations at finer scales where the aggregate relation-

ship may not be valid.

5.1. Map processing chain

Taking these considerations into account, a choice

of 5 km for the output resolution was based on the

ability of this resolution to provide a detailed map at

the continental scale while being coarse enough to

generalise the night-time light emissions to a level,

which shows detail in large cities without making too

much distinction within small towns.

Each country’s map was produced in the Environ-

mental Systems Research Institute’s ArcView geogra-

phical information system using the cell-based

modelling tools in the Spatial Analyst module, while

the Arc/Info GRID module was used for pre- and

post-processing of the data. The first task to be per-

formed involved resampling the night-time data to

produce a 5 km input file on which the output maps

would be based. The data were stored in their 8-bit

DN format. These values were converted to radiances

using the DN-radiance conversion equation then

aggregated (summed) up to 5 km resolution (radi-

ance-grid). Processing must be done in this order

since conversion and then aggregation is not the

same as aggregation and then conversion. The DN-

radiance conversion equation [radiance=DN(3/2)] is

non-linear and therefore the radiance-converted

whole does not equal the sum of its parts. There is

no systematic relationship governing this, as it is

dependent on the relative values of the parts, which

make up the whole. A total DN of 1500 could have

any number of combinations; 150 pixels of DN=10

will not convert to the same radiance value as 100

pixels of DN=15 (total radiance=4743 versus 5809,

respectively). The same is also true of disaggregation

using non-linear models. A 5�5 focal sum kernel

was applied to the input radiance-calibrated data. 5

km is referred to as the nominal resolution of the maps

although the exact value is 4.6 km. This is because the

input data does not have an exact resolution of 1 km

but 926.5 m (at 608 latitude). This arises from the

projection of the dataset to Lambert Equal-Area Azi-

muthal projection. Upon resampling on a 5�5 cell

basis, the output resolution becomes 4.6 km.

In order to allocate these new cells to their respec-

tive countries, the polygon coverage of NUTS bound-

aries was rasterised to the same extent and resolution

as the aggregated radiance data (country-grids). The

polygon coverage contained both region-name and

country-name attribute data, which facilitated the con-

struction of individual country raster files. These ras-

ters now contained the NUTS-3 regions, which could

be combined with the aggregated radiance data to

apply the radiance–GRP relationship by NUTS

zone. Furthermore, having NUTS-3 regions as sepa-

rate entities within the file permitted the exclusion of

certain areas, which had not fitted the regression

model and conversely, allowed the selection of those

areas for individual treatment.

In order to maintain consistency at the country

level, it was decided that the disaggregation should

sum to the national GDP figure for any given country.

The main relationship for a country was first applied

and the sum of these cells was subtracted from the

total GDP to obtain the remaining GRP to be allocated

within the outlier(s). The reclassification of the coun-

try mask was achieved through entering dno dataTvalues for the excluded areas, which meant that pro-

cessing only occurred in defined areas (relationship-

grids). In reality, this reclassification occurred solely

to select outlying regions and ignore the rest of the

country. Each relationship was then applied to the

C.N.H. Doll et al. / Ecological Economics 57 (2006) 75–9284

respective grid in order to obtain a map of GRP values

for the area under consideration. These processes

resulted in the production of a GRP-grid per relation-

ship, each of which was then combined using the

MERGE command in Arc-GRID. Again, dno dataTvalues were ignored so the grids were merged in

order with the main grid first and then subsequent

grids of the outlying regions. This ensured that the

data contained in outlying area grids would overwrite

those areas in the main grid while leaving other areas

intact. Finally, these grids were merged together to

produce one map for Europe and another for the US

shown in Figs. 6 and 7, respectively.

5.2. Estimated versus actual GRP values

The results are presented in tables by archetype.

The dmap estimateT figure quoted for each country

refers to the GRP for those areas valid for the main

relationship (i.e. outliers excluded). Outliers are listed

Fig. 6. Map of estimated economic activity based on DMSP-OLS radiance

in italics separately underneath. For these areas, the

dmap estimateT figure refers to the published total for

the whole country minus the map estimate for all areas

excluding outliers. Where there is more than one

outlying area, the percentage next to the name of the

region refers to that outlier’s proportion of the remain-

der. The d% differenceT column shows the difference

between the two totals. The bracketed figure to the

right of this refers to the average absolute percentage

difference from the expected value and the estimated

NUTS-3 areas for that country.

Table 2 shows the results for those countries with

major outliers. The total GRP for France (for 94/96

departements) was underestimated by 5.6% using the

all-points relationship. This resulted in a substantially

larger amount to disaggregate between Paris and

Hauts-de-Seine (the two outliers) such that the indi-

vidual error on these two departements approaches

30%. As an alternative, higher-level aggregations

were ignored and the NUTS-3 relationship was used

-calibrated night-time lights for 11 countries in the European Union.

Fig. 7. Map of estimated economic activity based on DMSP-OLS radiance-calibrated night-time lights for the United States.

C.N.H. Doll et al. / Ecological Economics 57 (2006) 75–92 85

instead. The gradient increased from 0.0938 to

0.0986 and the difference between totals was less

than 1%. As a result, the error for the two outliers

fell to around 4%.

The United States is included in Table 2 and like

the other countries in this section, it had two outlying

Table 2

Map estimate and accuracy assessment for countries in the major outlier m

Area Gradient Map e

France 0.0938 970

Paris (65%) 163

Hauts-de-Seine (35%) 88

France (NUTS-3 only) 0.0986 1,019

Paris (65%) 1.1957 131

Hauts-de-Seine (35%) 0.6439 70

Denmark 0.1194 99

Kobenhavn og Frederiksberg

Kommuner (55%)

0.7681 27

Kobenhavns amt (45%) 0.2731 22

United States 0.0499 6,142

California (61%) 0.1369 1,274

New York (39%) 0.1432 808

points in its radiance–GRP graph (Fig. 2). California

and New York are offset by a similar magnitude to

each other, which is well over twice the figure for the

rest of the country. The total GRP for the remaining

48 states is underestimated by just over 5%. In order

to constrain the country total, the methodology

odel

stimate Published figure % Difference

,022.8 1,027,701.1 �5.6 (32.8)

,919.2 126,239.1 29.8

,264.2 68,266.0 29.3

,661.4 1,027,701.1 �0.8 (32.1)

,654.1 126,239.1 4.3

,890.7 68,266.0 3.8

,681.6 100,780.2 �1.1 (16.6)

,218.2 26,755.6 1.8

,269.4 21,633.2 2.9

,244 6,516,332 �5.7 (33.4)

,102 1,045,254 21.9

,617 663,377 21.9

Table 3

Map estimate and accuracy assessment for countries in the offset point model

Area Gradient Map estimate Published figure % Difference

Portugal 0.0565 63,784.0 61,085.6 +4.4 (19.9)

Lisbon 0.0978 26,694.9 29,393.5 �9.2Italy 0.1097 923,095.0 925,360.6 �0.3 (28.4)

Milan 0.2447 106,896.2 104,630.6 +2.2

Spain (NUTS-3) 0.0539 309,842.9 319,919.3 �3.2 (18.5)

Barcelona (46%) 0.0962 74,395.4 71,203.3 4.5

Madrid (54%) 0.0760 90,927.7 84,043.4 8.2

Ireland (NUTS-3) 0.167 43,917.3 43,077.4 1.9 (14.8)

Dublin 0.2573 26,680.5 27,530.4 �3.1England 0.1652 830,060.4 795,909.3 +4.3 (26.8)

Greater London 0.2883 169,891.6 204,042.7 �20.1Scotland 0.1652 144,496.1 98,079.1 47.3

Wales 0.1652 48,060.5 46,841.5 2.6

C.N.H. Doll et al. / Ecological Economics 57 (2006) 75–9286

requires the remainder to be disaggregated among the

remaining outliers. This has resulted in both outliers

being overestimated by 22%. This is, however, still

less than the mean percentage difference (the highest

of any country analysed) for those states modelled by

the main relationship.

There are similarities between the US result in

Table 2 and England in Table 3. England was

referred to rather than Great Britain, as this is

the region where the remaining GRP is disaggre-

gated. In this case, London is the sole outlier to

mitigate the overestimation of the rest of England

by 4%. Consequently, the Greater London region is

underestimated by 20%. The main result for Portu-

gal (Table 3) is also estimated to a similar degree,

but the effect of accommodating the shortfall in the

Lisbon area is not as severe as for England or the

US because Lisbon accounts for over 30% of the

total GDP for Portugal. In short, this method

causes a larger percentage discrepancy in the out-

lier when the outlier accounts for a smaller propor-

Table 4

Map estimate and accuracy assessment for countries in the two-relationsh

Area Gradient Ma

Belgium (one model—all points) 0.085 1

Belgium (two models) 1

Vlaams Gewest 0.0993 1

Wallonia 0.0577

Brussels 0.3785

West Germany 0.2103 1,6

East Germany 0.0923 2

Germany 1,8

tion of total GDP and vice versa. The fact that

Dublin accounts for nearly 40% of Irish economic

production means that the percentage difference

between the estimated and published total for

Dublin is only one-seventh that of England despite

having comparable levels of accuracy in the main

relationship.

Belgium (Table 4) exhibited a range of features,

which could give it membership to other archetypes.

Brussels, the capital, is an extreme outlier and was

dealt with separately from the two identified relation-

ships. There are three NUTS-1 areas in Belgium, of

which Brussels is one. Analysing the other two

regions by themselves revealed two different relation-

ships at work. The economic dominance of the

Vlaams Gewest region exerts a bias on the derived

relationship of the single relationship model shown in

the first line of Table 4. This causes the errors for

individual NUTS-2 regions to be high. Applying two

separate relationships is much more accurate than the

result of the single model approach. There is, how-

ip model

p estimate Eurostat figure % Difference

87,658.5 175,550.3 6.9 (29.4)

79,851.8 175,550.3 2.5

25,234.6 123,772.8 1.2 (30.3)

54,617.3 51,777.5 5.5 (56.1)

36,552.9 40,854.4 �10.500,794.1 1,651,475.8 �3.1 (26.8)

05,139.1 212,016.8 �3.2 (6.6)

05,933.2 1,863,492.6 �3.1 (23.2)

C.N.H. Doll et al. / Ecological Economics 57 (2006) 75–92 87

ever, a considerable difference in the overall accu-

racy between the two regions. The more productive

Flemish speaking Vlaams Gewest region has a much

lower average percentage difference for its compo-

nent NUTS-3 areas than for French speaking Wallo-

nia. The high levels of error at NUTS-3 were

reduced by half when the disparity of NUTS-2

regions were analysed. Both regions are overesti-

mated, which results in the estimated GRP for Brus-

sels being relatively low.

The relationships for Germany (Fig. 3) had many

similarities with those of Belgium. Germany’s capital

is also an extreme outlier with respect to the regions

of the former East Germany. Due to its historical

support by West Germany, its position in the scat-

terplot fell in line with the distribution of West

German regions and was therefore evaluated as

part of that relationship. Like Belgium, there is a

considerable difference between the accuracy of the

two regions. East Germany (minus Berlin) has the

lowest mean regional differences of any of the

countries tested, whereas West German NUTS-2

points have nearly four times the mean absolute

percentage difference. However, both areas are

aggregated to the same level of accuracy (3%).

There is a considerable difference in the magnitude

of these two regional relationships with West Ger-

many having a GRP more than twice that of East

Germany per unit radiance.

The two remaining countries were each modelled

using one relationship for all parts of the country.

The result for Greece (Table 5) underestimated total

GDP by a comparatively large margin (6.5%) and it

had the highest mean percentage difference among

its NUTS-3 areas. A reason for this is that although

there exists a single relationship, there is consider-

able noise around this trendline at low radiance

levels where the bulk of the points are. The R2

value drops to 0.72 for those NUTS-3 points exclud-

ing the main economic centers of Athens and Thes-

saloniki but the gradient for these points (0.1) is

Table 5

Map estimate and accuracy assessment for countries in the single relation

Area Gradient Map estim

Greece 0.1011 100,132.9

Netherlands 0.1447 337,999.0

bPerfectQ Netherlands 0.1429 332,653.9

virtually identical to that for all the points (0.1011).

Greece has the smallest NUTS-3 regions of any

country examined and also the lowest mean GRP

at just over 2 billion euros. Furthermore, many of

these are small islands, which can be sensitive to

errors of omission due to the coastal location of

many lights. These errors have been noted for at

least two islands (Lefkada and Crete).

An alternative to the single relationship model is to

simply use a GDP/radiance quotient for the whole

country. The relationship model derived from all

points includes aggregated points that have been sub-

jected to some modifiable areal unit effect. Since the

mapping is set at a fixed resolution and therefore fixed

radiance range, it may be just as well to ensure that the

country total is reached exactly by using a simple

radiance ratio. The dperfect gradientT was tested for

the Netherlands. Its gradient was very close to that

one derived across the three levels of NUTS regions in

Fig. 4 and the results show a negligible improvement

in the accuracy of component regions. The analysis

presented in Section 4 is still relevant because this

method should only be applied if there are no outlying

points.

6. Discussion

A key problem with the map results is that there is

no independent way of checking whether the disag-

gregation is correct. The relationships presented in the

previous chapter were constructed from the finest

scale data available. While it may not be possible to

assess the sub-NUTS-3 accuracy of the map, it is still

worthwhile to examine how robust the map result is to

aggregation. Simulated regions provide an alternative

means of aggregating lower levels of data to compare

against conventional NUTS classifications. Simulated

regions based on ranked GRP and alphabetical divi-

sions were used as a cross-check against the conven-

tional NUTS-1 regions. This analysis was performed

ship model

ate Eurostat figure % Difference

107,102.4 �6.51 (36.4)

332,653.9 1.61 (22.5)

332,653.9 – (22.3)

C.N.H. Doll et al. / Ecological Economics 57 (2006) 75–9288

for four countries: France, Spain, Italy and Greece.

These countries were selected based on their range of

errors and their capacity to be aggregated into differ-

ent units (i.e. a sufficient number of zones and sub-

zones to work with).

Table 6 shows the results of these aggregation

tests. The figure in brackets next to the name of

each country refers to the NUTS-3 mean accuracy

presented in the respective results’ table. The two

simulated regions were determined by dividing the

component NUTS-3 areas into groups with an equal

number of members in each. These are given in the

d# groupT and d# membersT columns. The next col-

umn shows the percentage mean absolute difference

for the conventional NUTS-1 units of each country.

The column titled dranked GRP/estimatesT refers to

the aggregations of NUTS-3 areas ranked firstly by

their GRP and then by ranking on the estimated

values rather than the published values. The result

for aggregation by alphabetical division is presented

in the last column.

The results show that mean accuracy is improved

from the NUTS-3 level for each country regardless

of aggregation strategy but that different aggrega-

tion methods do have an effect on accuracy assess-

ments. Generally, the greatest discrepancy is to be

found in the conventional NUTS-1 units, followed

by the ranked aggregations and then alphabetical

(random) aggregations. Italy is the exception,

where NUTS-1 regions are more accurate than the

ranked aggregation. However, there are large dispa-

rities between the regions. Half of Italy’s 10 NUTS-

1 regions are estimated to within 5% of the pub-

lished figure and three of these regions are less than

1.5% different from the official figure. Comparing

aggregations based on ranking the estimated figure

tends to be more accurate than comparisons made

on the published figure. Of those countries tested,

none of them had identical published and estimated

NUTS-3 rankings.

Table 6

Mean percentage differences for different aggregation strategies of NUTS

Country # Group # Members NUTS

France (32) 8 12 17.1

Italy (28.4) 10 10 13.4

Spain (18.5) 8 6 11

Greece (36.4) 10 5 23

6.1. Map caveats

In order to understand how these results may be

translated to global scale mapping of socio-economic

parameters one first needs to understand the finer

scale effects before going on to make inferences at

the global scale. Despite the emphasis of this study

being regional scale relationships in the developed

world, it is neither implied nor anticipated that this

is the full geographical scope of these results. The EU

and USA were selected due to the availability and

quality of data present for these regions. However,

there are reliability issues associated with all sorts of

economic data. Ebener et al. (2005) discuss some of

the problems with GDP data and higher spatial reso-

lution economic survey data. The most significant

issues are perceived as the magnitude of the informal

economy especially in poor countries, who also tend

to suffer from poorly developed national accounting

systems. Dobozi and Pohl (1995) have shown that

official statistics can be unreliable for countries

experiencing market transitions and point to the use

of proxies as an alternative means of assessment. An

advantage to using night-time light imagery is that it is

an independent proxy for economic activity. In this

sense, it could be considered as a means of detecting

areas which merit further investigation via deviations

away from an assumed or previously demonstrated

relationship in areas (Doll, 2005).

Although the observed differences in the relation-

ships were split into four sections, the difference

between the models essentially comes down to

whether or not a country had outlying areas or not.

The basic model is the same for all countries once the

decision has been made as to which areas are to be

treated separately. Assuming this decision has been

made correctly, there is no advantage in the type of

model used. The use of a tailored quotient to deal with

outliers implies that economic activity is enhanced by

the same magnitude throughout the whole outlying

-3 regions

-1 Ranked GRP/estimates Alphabet

14.9 5.4 8.7

19 13.4 10.9

6.9 7.5 4.8

20.8 31.4 14.8

C.N.H. Doll et al. / Ecological Economics 57 (2006) 75–92 89

region. Fig. 8 shows a comparison of New York State

as part of the single model for the US and then with its

special quotient applied. While all areas in the right-

hand image have much higher GRP values, the size of

the state brings into question whether it is necessarily

the case that the upstate towns of Albany, Rochester

and Buffalo contribute the same amount of GRP/per

unit radiance as Manhattan in the South East. The area

in and around New York City now takes the top class

of GRP values (shown in red), but, in reality, this

could is still be an underestimation.

This has been less of a problem for other countries

such as France and Denmark because their outlying

areas have been far smaller in area (of the order of 100

km2) and more homogeneous. In addition to the phy-

sical size of the outlying area having an influence on

how homogeneous the area is, and hence how accu-

rate the disaggregation is likely to be within the area,

the proportion of the outlier with respect to the total

GDP of the country is also important. Comparing the

example of London and Lisbon, it is apparent that the

smaller the proportion of total GDP of the outlier, the

larger the error will be between the predicted and

published total.

The accuracy of the map is therefore only as good

as the spatial units on which it is based. Outliers exist

where one sector dominates all others, whether it is in

the agricultural or service sectors. The only difference

between so-called major outliers and some of the

Fig. 8. Comparison of New York state as part of a single relationship (left)

GSP for New York is $663,377 million.

offset point countries is that the spatial units are

sufficiently small to concentrate high-level economic

activity with radiance. Given the example of New

York, it is likely that, if GRP data were available for

Manhattan County, it too would be a major outlier in

the same way that Paris, Copenhagen and Brussels are

for their respective countries. However, outliers also

exist in the opposite sense. Compare the underestima-

tion of obvious outliers mentioned above with the

situation where agricultural states such as Wyoming

and the Dakotas are overestimated by the main US

model by between 77% and 190%. In this case, they

are not detected because they are of relatively low

economic importance and less conspicuous among

other points on the graph. While these are extreme

examples, the success of this method is partially

reliant upon obtaining a sufficient mix of economic

sectors within each zone.

In analysing the results, it is important not to lose

sight of what the map is attempting to show. It dis-

plays values of aggregate economic activity over a

number of cells. There are some issues related with

how to read the map, especially outside of urban

areas. For instance, the map does not explicitly dis-

play the economic activity of a unit of agricultural

land. This income is represented as a node rather than

dispersed throughout fields. Similarly, the income

generated from the fishing industry is concentrated

in coastal towns.

for the US and using a tailored quotient as an outlier (right). Actual

C.N.H. Doll et al. / Ecological Economics 57 (2006) 75–9290

7. Conclusion and prospects

There are a number of improvements to the present

methodology which merit investigation. These mod-

ifications deal with the way the relationship between

radiance and GRP is constructed. In particular, inves-

tigating the use of radiance thresholds to identify areas

of homogeneous economic activity. While radiance is

the key determinant of economic activity, incorporat-

ing the prevailing land use into the model could

reduce the presence of outliers and facilitate the con-

struction of a single model applicable to all areas

within a country. Spatial analysis of radiance values

with urban clusters may also aid this effort. The

globalisation of commerce and industry may also

have impacts on using the methods presented in this

paper. Increasing flows of investment between coun-

tries raises the question of whether the light detected

in one location necessarily contributes fully to the

economy of that country. This may not be the case

for countries, which are in receipt of large amounts of

foreign investment. Such considerations pose obsta-

cles to the present technique but also point toward

areas of further investigation for more sophisticated

models.

However, the biggest question posed by the results

presented here concerns the potential of night-time

lights to accurately monitor and detect change. In

particular, an assessment of how sensitive lights are

to seasonal variation and annual changes would be

highly desirable. Closely allied to this is the need to

conduct similar studies in the developing world where

economies are different and in emerging economies

where growth rates are highest. Such an analysis in

these regions could potentially have the greatest rami-

fications for mapping and monitoring economic

development.

Economic output is conventionally reported at the

national or regional level. The creation of a gridded

GRP map allows these figures to be aggregated and

analysed according to whichever spatial units are most

convenient for the user. This opens up the possibility

for spatial economic analysis to be carried out in units

not previously considered such as by biome, by catch-

ment area or other ecological unit, which cross admin-

istrative boundaries. The interesting results for

Germany and Belgium suggest that the relationship

between radiance and GRP may also be used to

develop insights into regional and political geogra-

phies of certain areas. Other countries that could

exhibit this feature include Canada and Switzerland.

Areas where this could be explained by regional dis-

putes include Sri Lanka and Israel and its Occupied

Territories. Alternatively, Sutton and Costanza (2002)

and Sutton (2003) have shown that it can also make a

significant contribution to evaluating sustainability.

The analytical flexibility of such a spatially explicit

description of economic activity offers the potential to

address all these questions and is highly advantageous

in an application environment where the nation state

has limited analytical utility as a spatial unit.

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Chris Elvidge at

NOAA-NDGC, Boulder Colorado for supplying the

satellite data and the anonymous referees’ comments.

This work was supported by NERC award GT 04/98

188/TS.

Appendix A

A digital archive of night-time light imagery has

been established since 1992, thanks to the efforts of

Chris Elvidge and his team at NOAA’s National Geo-

physical Data Center. A number of data products have

been produced from this archive.

The most widely used is the dstable lightsT product,which maps the frequency of occurrence of light

sources over the Earth’s surface. This product used

six months worth of imagery acquired between Octo-

ber 1994 and March 1995 during periods of low lunar

illumination. While lunar illumination was crucial to

imaging clouds at night, it is a hindrance to observing

light sources from the ground due to the reduced

contrast of light sources from the ground. Analysing

the temporal frequency and stability of lights can help

to distinguish their most likely source. City lights can

be identified because they are temporally stable. How-

ever, an area, which is subjected to biomass burning

as an agricultural process, can also be identified due to

its location and lack of temporal stability over the

compositing period. Through this process, the global

night-time light composite can be filtered into a vari-

C.N.H. Doll et al. / Ecological Economics 57 (2006) 75–92 91

ety of different products: city lights, shipping fleets,

biomass burning and gas flaring. Analysing this data-

set revealed a problem with low-light level pixel

saturation. The brightness of urban centres was so

high that it saturated the sensor.

The problems of relatively low-level pixel satura-

tion led to the experimentation and ultimate produc-

tion of a new low-gain dataset. Elvidge et al. (1999)

described a method for detecting a greater range of

settlements than in the 1994–1995 product by vary-

ing the gain of the sensor. Low gain experiments

were conducted in March 1996 to identify the gain

settings that produce the best results. High and low

gain cloud free composites were averaged. The radi-

ance-calibrated average DN (digital number) from

each image was weighted by the total number of

detections. The final dataset contained calibrated

radiances between 1.54�10�9 and 3.17�10� 7 W

cm�2 sr�1 Mm�1 (Elvidge et al., 1999) and was

produced in byte (0–255) format at 30 arc-seconds

(1 km). This is the dataset used here and appears to

be of superior quality to the 1994–1995 city lights

dataset since the DN variation is a physically mean-

ingful quantity as opposed to a dlit-frequencyT obser-vation. This makes it a flexible dataset for

application to a variety of modelling schemes subject

to finding appropriate relationships between radiance

and the economic activity.

More recently, a change detection pair has been

released using average DN values between for 1992–

1993 and 2000 (NOAA, 2003). Like the stable lights

product, it too suffers from saturation over urban

areas. NGDC are in the process of producing a global

composite for 1992–2004 (Ebener et al., 2005).

References

BEA, 2002. Bureau of Economic Analysis: Gross State Product data.

Available from: http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/regional/gsp/.

BEA, 2003. Regional accounts: gross state product. Online Report.

Available from: http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/regional/docs/

Regional_GSP.pdf.

Cao, C., Lam, N.S.-N., 1997. Understanding the Scale and Resolu-

tion Effects in Remote Sensing and GIS. In: Quattrochi, D.A.,

Goodchild, M.F. (Eds.), Scale in Remote Sensing and GIS. CRC

Lewis, Boca Raton, FL, USA, pp. 57–72.

Croft, T.A., 1978. Nighttime images of the Earth from space.

Scientific American 239, 68–79.

Dobozi, I., Pohl, G., 1995. Real output decline in transition econo-

mies—forget GDP, try power consumption data! Transition

Newsletter 6, 17–18.

Doll, C.N.H., 2003. Estimating non-population parameters from

night-time satellite imagery. In: Mesev, V. (Ed.), Remotely

Sensed Cities. Taylor and Francis, London, UK, pp. 335–354.

Doll, C.N.H., 2005. Investigating Asian economic activity with

night-time light remote sensing data. Submitted for presentation

at The 4th International Symposium on Digital Earth. Tokyo

28–31 March.

Doll, C.N.H., Muller, J.-P., Elvidge, C.D., 2000. Night-time ima-

gery as a tool for global mapping of socio-economic parameters

and greenhouse gas emissions. Ambio 29 (3), 157–162.

Doll, C.N.H., Morley, J.G., Muller, J.-P., 2004. Geographic infor-

mation issues associated with socio-economic modelling from

night-time light remote sensing data. Proceedings of the XXth

ISPRS Congress, 12–23 July. Commission VII, pp. 790–795.

Ebener, S., Murray, C., Tandon, A., Elvidge, C.C., 2005. From

wealth to health: modeling the distribution of income per capita

at the sub-national level using night-time light imagery. Inter-

national Journal of Health Geographics 4 (1), 5 (Feb 10).

Elvidge, C.D., 2002. Global observations of urban areas based on

nocturnal lighting. LUCC Newsletter 8, 10–12.

Elvidge, C.D., Baugh, K.E., Kihn, E.A., Kroehl, H.W., Davis, E.R.,

1997. Mapping city lights with nighttime data from the DMSP

operational linescan system. Photogrammetric Engineering and

Remote Sensing 63 (6), 727–734.

Elvidge, C.D., Baugh, K.E., Dietz, J.B., Bland, T., Sutton, P.C.,

Kroehl, H.W., 1999. Radiance calibration of DMSP-OLS low-

light imaging data of human settlements. Remote Sensing of

Environment 68 (1), 77–88.

Elvidge, C.D., Imhoff, M.L., Baugh, K.E., Hobson, V.-R., Nelson,

I., Safran, J., Dietz, J.B., Tuttle, B.T., 2001. Night-time lights of

the world: 1994–1995. ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and

Remote Sensing 56, 81–99.

Eurostat, 2002a. CODED: Eurostat Concepts and Definitions Data-

base. Available from: http://forum.europa.eu.int/irc/dsis/coded/

info/data/coded/en/gl000060.htm.

Eurostat, 2002b. Main characteristics of the NUTS. Available

from: http://europa.eu.int/comm/eurostat/ramon/nuts/mainchar_

regions_en.html.

Eurostat, 2002c. Basic principles of the NUTS. Available from: http://

europa.eu.int/comm/eurostat/ramon/nuts/basicnuts_ regions_en.

html.

Gibson, C.C., Ostrom, E., Ahn, T.K., 2000. The concept of scale

and the human dimensions of global change: a survey. Ecolo-

gical Economics 32 (2), 217–239.

Konarska, K.M., Sutton, P.C., Castellon, M., 2002. Evaluating scale

dependence of ecosystem service valuation: a comparison of

NOAA-AVHRR and Landsat TM datasets. Ecological Econo-

mics 41, 491–507.

Kramer, H.J., 1994. Observation of the Earth and its Environment—

Survey of Missions and Sensors, 2nd Edition. Springer-Verlag,

Berlin.

NOAA, 2003. Nighttime lights of the World Change Pair 1993–93

and 2000. Available from: http://dmsp.ngdc.noaa.gov/html/

download_world_change_pair.html.

C.N.H. Doll et al. / Ecological Economics 57 (2006) 75–9292

Sutton, P.C., 2003. An empirical environmental sustainability

index derived solely from nighttime satellite imagery and

ecosystem service valuation. Population and Environment 24

(1), 293–311.

Sutton, P.C., Costanza, R., 2002. Global estimates of market and

non-market values derived from nighttime satellite imagery,

landcover and ecosystem service valuation. Ecological Econo-

mics 41, 509–527.

UNEP, 2003. UNEP-GRID GNV158—Administrative Regions/

Boundaries of Europe. Available from: http://www.grid.

unep.ch/data/grid/gnv158.php.

UNSD, 2003. United Nations Statistical Division: National

Accounts. Available from: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/sna1993/

introduction.asp.

Wrigley, N., Holt, T., Steel, D., Tranmer, M., 1996. Analysing,

modelling and resolving the ecological fallacy. In: Longley, P.,

Batty, M. (Eds.), Spatial Analysis: Modelling in a GIS Environ-

ment. Wiley, New York, USA, pp. 25–41.