India-China Relations: From

A Geopolitical Perspective

June 5, 2015

OVERVIEW

• Role of Geography in India-China Relations

• Re-emergence of Geopolitical discourse

• Theories, Geopolitical levels, Continental vs. Maritime

• India’s Geopolitical Outlook

• China’s Geopolitical Outlook

• Can it be a Win-Win Scenario?

“Geography is the most fundamental factor in the foreign policy of states

because it is the most permanent. Ministers come and ministers go, even dictators die, but mountain ranges stand

unperturbed.” -Nicholas J. Spykman, Dutch-American

Strategist of World War II Era

Role of Geography

• Coexisted peacefully over millennia- Sphere of

influence & interests different.

• Fluid boundaries of Civilization State.

• Rigid boundaries of Nation State.

• India’s Asylum to Dalai Lama- Undermine

China.

• 1962 Border War; China-Pak Nexus

Role of Geography (cont.)

• India- China Eco. Resurgence- “Enough Space”.

• Connotations of Eco. Growth so high- instead of peaceful engagement- strategic divergence.

• Negotiation of boundary dispute not precondition for greater ties.

• Technological Revolution plus Nuclear Weapons made geography irrelevant.

• Conflicting interests in maritime domain- resurgence of geography influenced politics.

Re-emergence of Geopolitical Discourse

• Geopolitics lost ground after post-Cold-War Era.

• Increasing economic globalization led geopolitics to lose much

ground.

• Post-2010, geopolitics seeing a revival – as many flashpoints

see their genesis from not just human influence but also

geography.

• Is 2011 US Rebalancing Strategy to Asia- motivated by

classical geopolitical theories??

GEOPOLITICAL THEORIES

Mahan’s Sea Power

• Sea Commerce pre-requisite for national power.

• Control of the seas and a powerful navy essential for

global power.

Mackinder’s Land Power

• Central portion of Eurasia landmass –inaccessible to ships –

”Heartland” or pivot of world politics.

• “Who rules East Europe commands the

Heartland; who rules the Heartland commands

the World-Island; who rules the World-Island

commands the world.”

• Heartland empire integrated with railways –would

allow exploitation of large natural resources.

Spykman’s Rimland Theory

• Power of heartland could be checked by peripheral Rimland–

containing large share of world’s demographic weight and

natural resources.

• “Who controls the Rimland, rules Eurasia. Who

rules Eurasia controls the destinies of the world.”

“…..the threat to our (US) security each

time has been the possibility that the

rimland regions of the Eurasian landmass

would be dominated by a single power.”

-Spykman (1944)

RIMLAND THEORY STILL INFLUENTIAL EVEN AFTER SEVEN DECADES? 2011 US REBALANCING STRATEGY TO PREVENT CHINA FROM DOMINATING EURASIA?

LEVELS OF GEOPOLITICS

Nation State

Geopolitical Region

Geostrategic Realm

NATION STATE Continental Orientation

1. Extreme climates.

2. Vast distances from open seas.

3. Suffer from lack of intensive interaction with other parts of the world –barrier effects of mountains, deserts, and high plateaus.

4. Self-sufficient economies.

5. Political systems isolated from new influences and ideas and tend to develop as closed and autocratic.

6. Urbanization and industrialization come much later.

7. Remain heavily rural or are characterized by ageing industrial bases.

Maritime Orientation

1. Moderate temperatures and adequate rainfall.

2. Exposed to open sea from coastal reaches or from inland areas with access to the seas.

3. Ease of contact with other parts of the world, often behind the protective screen of inland physical barriers.

4. Trading Economies.

5. Trade and other economic exchanges have politically liberalizing effects.

6. Economic specialisation.

7. Characterized by high-technology and innovations.

INDIA’S GEOPOLITICAL OUTLOOK

• India has lacked political unity because of geography.

• Abundant resources –pol. structures not for org. of resources.

• Well defined by geography but lacks a historic core.

• Various river systems –act as mini cores.

• Britain united subcontinent via technology –railways.

• Perennial Problem of NW Frontier. • Gradual descent from Indus to C. Asian steppe and Persian-Afghan

Plateau –constant invasions.

• In Modern-day, separate Indus state (Pak) and Gangetic State (India) –fighting for control over near C. Asia.

INDIA’S GEOPOLITICAL OUTLOOK (conti)

• The Great Game of Afghanistan

• Geographical buffer between Iranian plateau, C. Asian steppes and Indian subcontinent.

• India-Pak battleground–Kashmir + Afghanistan.

• Rivalry with China

• No history of animosity such as with Pak.

• Tibet falls under arc of operations of Indian Military.

• Overlapping naval spheres of interest aggravate outstanding border issue.

• China-Pak nexus –Wakhan Corridor –control of Rimland?

• New Military Technologies –closing distance –new perceived Battlespace?

• China bringing rivalry to India’s backyard –Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar?

INDIA’S GEOPOLITICAL OUTLOOK (cont’d)

• South Asian geopolitical region to Indian Ocean geostrategic realm.

• S. Asia not a shatterbelt like Middle East only bcoz of India.

• NAM, Strategic Autonomy –let India chose its interests as per situation.

• Expanding economy –possibility of emerging as a mixed C/ M Realm with Indian Ocean orientation.

• Increasing importance of Indian Ocean SLOCs –expansive support for Indian influence in IOR.

CHINA’S GEOPOLITICAL OUTLOOK

• China blessed by geography.

• All advantages of Heartlandic Russia with warm water ports.

• Reach into C. Asian minerals and hydrocarbons with good harbours opening to Pacific.

• Advantages and Disadvantages of its frontiers.

• Core: arable central plain; Periphery: pastoral outer frontiers.

• Periphery –desert or barren highland –less population

• Empty Area –Protective screen to heavily populated core.

• Periphery –Non-Han population –Separatist sentiment

• Policy of changing demographic composition of periphery.

• Separatist sentiment courted support from adjoining countries.

CHINA’S GEOPOLITICAL OUTLOOK (cont'd)

• Change from Continental perspective to Maritime orientation.

• Stabilization of land borders –hostile environment at sea.

• Well organized line of American allies –Great Wall in reverse.

• East China Sea/ South China Sea conflict.

• Terms “First Island Chain, Second Island Chain” –reflect Continental thinking

• Future of Taiwan • A2AD not only to keep US out, but to regain Taiwan.

• Will free China’s military energy to project power outward.

• US abandoning Taiwan –highly negligible.

CHINA’S GEOPOLITICAL OUTLOOK (cont'd)

• Strategic Importance of South China Sea.

• Indian Ocean –World’s Hydrocarbon Highway.

• China’s Indian Ocean ports –dominating S. China Sea imperative.

• Oil and Gas deposits plus strategic gateways –Second Persian Gulf.

• Chinese ambitions to spread their East Asian Realm –lie on ability to sustain Economic Growth?

CAN IT BE A WIN-WIN SCENARIO?

• East Asian Realm

• Collapse of Soviet Union –Weak Russian core –China shifted from Heartland to Maritime Realm.

• New Realm –China as core.

• W. edge of Eurasia –from Russia to China.

• Split Chinese personality (C/M) –communist government (C) + market-oriented economy (M).

• China-Russia Entente following Ukraine Crisis.

• Russia wary of Chinese immigration to its Far East.

• Need for Stable Sino-Russian border- to not-divert from Maritime to Continental realm once again.

CAN IT BE A WIN-WIN SCENARIO? (cont'd)

• China- US relationship- • strategic vulnerability of China’s Golden Coast to US’s air and sea

power.

• economic interdependence.

• Challenge of delimiting boundary between East Asian Realm and US-dominated M. Realm’s Asia Pacific region.

• Both US and Russia seek to delimit Chinese influence by using India as a strategic balancer.

• Growing Chinese and Indian economic reach –interests infringing on other’s emerging geostrategic realms.

• India’s newly emerging Indian Ocean geostrategic realm and China’s East Asian realm.

CAN IT BE A WIN-WIN SCENARIO? (cont'd)

• Unlike China, India’s Realm to be a link than a competitor for existing realms.

• West, Russia, India, China –strategic competition for Rimland.

• Chinese ambitions to project itself as a Maritime power –will need to keep its 3rd largest land border free from conflict.

• China’s close relationship with Pak and forays into Indian Ocean

• matched tit for tat by India by pursuing closer ties with Myanmar and declaring South China Sea as national interest.

CAN IT BE A WIN-WIN SCENARIO? (cont'd)

• China’s efforts to contain India constrained by India’s growing ties with US, Japan and Vietnam-

• bulwark for Chinese maritime expansionist ambitions.

• support India’s dominance in the Indian Ocean.

• China’s aging demography- India winner in long run.

• India part of plus one strategy for countries seeking economic alternatives to China.

India and China are millennia old neighbours.

Modern relationship began in 1950 and expanded to a strategic

partnership in 2005.

Being the largest Asian powers and fastest growing economies,

competition is inevitable.

However that does not mean cooperation does not exist.

But with recent developments, it is clearly evident that

geography influenced politics will play a major role in India-

China bilateral relations in the near future.

THANK YOU!!

“Geography is the mother of strategy.”

-Geoffrey Sloan

CERTAIN TERMS

Geography

Human Geography

Political Geography

Geopolitics

Geoeconomics