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by

Ulla Gordillo Kontio,

Akhgar Kaboli,

Falona Oluwarotimi.

Futures Case Evaluation – FUTUS5

Prof. Sirkka Heinonen and Petri Tapio

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION 2

CHAPTER 2

2.0 EVALUATION OF THE CASE 4

2.1 THEORETICAL BACKGROUND 5

2.2 METHODOLOGY 6

2.3 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS 10

2.4 IMPORTANCE AND MEANINGFULNESS 11

2.4.1 NOVELTY VALUE 13

2.5 PREVIOUS STUDIES 14

CHAPTER 3

3.0 MINDMAP 15

CHAPTER 4

4.0 FURTHER CONSIDERATIONS 18

4.1 APPLICATION VALUE 18

4.2 FUTURE RESEARCH QUESTION (REFLECTION) 20

CHAPTER 5

5.0 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 22

BIBLIOGRAPHY 24

REFERENCES

APPENDIX 1

APPENDIX 2

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INTRODUCTION

Increasing interaction between humans across the world, the movements of people, the

spread of knowledge and dispersion of advanced technologies are just some of the notions that are

creating a variety of threats global in scope and more serious in their effects. As a result, the

quantity and quality of security that people demand from their communities is increasing and

changing. Novel thinking is required to fulfill the human need to feel secure and to build security

solutions for the futures’ world. Futures studies, by developing images of alternative futures and

offering valuable tools to understand the future of security, aims at providing decision-makers with

new viewpoints and assisting them to make more effective decisions toward desirable futures.

THE CASE

The case titled “Future and Security: Scanning the Changing Environment of the Police”

managed by Project Researcher Ville Lauttamäki, was first brought to life by the Provincial Police

Command of Western Finland. It was developed by their perceived needs to find options by which

to improve the security of the average citizens in an environment in which funding will decrease

over time and the security needs will continuously change rapidly. These changes would be a

direct consequence of the new members of the European Union and the free movement of people

within the EU territory. It was a 4 -year project developed between 2003 and 2007 in cooperation

with the FFRC and the Provincial Police Command of Western Finland. The goals of the project

were the following:

1) Gather information on security foresight from a group of experts on a continuous

set with the aim of facilitating the police to be prepared for futures needs of

security.

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2) Develop a software for pre-emptive security work for the Province of Western

Finland, which would mainly be used to for resource allocation.

The police recognized that security needs are directly linked to the perceived threats of

individuals rather than the presence of a real threat; this means that the feeling of security might

have been affected, in this case by the increasing movement of people within the expanding EU

territory.

The tool developed for the case was called the “Safety Indicator Data Bank”, and it was a

databank that contained the most important safety and security related data. It had two indexes

which were based on a set of indicators provided by the panel of experts as relevant and significant

for security today, for change and the future. The first index shows the current status of security,

based on basic crime and social data, and the second index provides a projection of the security

status of the future.

Some of the challenges of the case involved the subjectivity of values surrounding the

feeling of security of individuals, such as happiness and feelings arising from media reports. In

addition, the complexity of an issue such as security is such that it is difficult to map all of its

connections and relationships to other social, economical, political phenomenon. In addition, the

realization that a tool, like the “Safety Indicator Data Bank” requires constant modification and

updating for it to be relevant and thus useful. The main outcomes of the project, according to

project manager Ville Lauttamäki, were not the tool itself but the networks and the new way of

thinking among the relevant actors on the issues related to security.

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EVALUATION OF THE CASE

Issues such as ensuring security in a societal settings and enhancing security feelings in

citizens are always challenging; one of the aims of Futures Studies is to create a better world for all

humanity, where peace, tranquility and justice will reign with fear of the unknown reduced to a

barest minimum as much as possible, and in the end a better world is experienced by all. A case as

this in security is very important in this essence, of particularly targeting, investigating and aiming

at finding ways on how to create a sense of security for the citizens of a geographical location, in

this case, Southwestern Finland. The case also tends to add additional meaningful stands to one of

the focus of Futures Studies in trying to contribute to investigating the nature of a good society and

standards of evaluations by which this nature is defined and judged through its methodological

approaches by determining how safe people are and ways to better prevent crime in the future.

Futures studies contributes to human knowledge, on moral and ethical grounds which

involves discovering, inventing, examining, anticipating and evaluating preferable futures and

future events (images) towards human betterment, tending to provide answers to such questions as

what human betterment is, how to convince people about it, how to resolve conflicts and how to

make value judgments objectively, as explained by Bell (1997, 73).

In this light, the study goals, observations and outcomes which contains initiating a work

of a security foresight expert network that met regularly and gathered info in helping the police

prepare for the future, and organizing meetings which brought the views of the police and other

actors involved in the network closer together thus preventing communication problems in future

co-operation, and also went further in creating a tool for pre-emptive security work (for the

Province of Western Finland) which was seen as being useful in deciding how to allocate resources

between different areas and actions.

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It also set up a common understanding on how to achieve desired future with increased

proactive thinking among the security authority, with a consensus which emphasizes on

concentration on pre-emptive work and improved co-operation between different actors in the

safety/security branch in the province, all falls within the ideas and scope of Futures Studies as

indicated above, making the case important and interesting in respect to Futures Studies. A study

as this is also important for making decisions and useful in policy making, which are also

important targets of methods used in futures studies.

THEORETICAL BACKGROUND

According to project manager Ville Lauttamäki there is no major theoretical basis on which

the project was based on. However, he held that the main idea was to collect a representative

sample of recent writings on issues relating to the Finnish public security sector and its future as

well as of foresight literature on expected developments in societies around the world. In respect of

this view, certain information was gathered partly from literature, which focuses on defining safety

and security, and the factors that work for and against improving security and safety, and finally on

which pre-emptive measures the authority should focus on. The theoretical ideas supported the

research of which sources were not specifically indicated but believed to include available

important information pertaining to security and relating specifically to the subject of concern of

the project.

However, it should be noted that the main information tool of the project was mainly

through participatory futures research methods such, in this case - futures workshops and Delphi,

thus there was less focus on the theoretical aspects. Howbeit, some of the material provided in

addition to the case, presented certain knowledge of understanding of trends that might contribute

to the insecurity of citizens. The understanding of awareness and application of “big data” as

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elaborated in some of the additional literature material provided as support material presented un-

debatable and clear information useful for the full understanding of the case and security concerns

in general.

METHODOLOGY

Techniques used in futures studies are generally divided into two broad categories: the

exploratory and the normative. Exploratory approaches generally deal with questions of what may,

might, or could possibly happen on the basis of the forces at play. Normative forecasting almost

always reflects the needs of an organization and, therefore, is goal-oriented. The question dealt

with basically is "how would we like the future to evolve?" Goal-oriented forecasting tends to take

into account an organization's purpose, its mission, and, most importantly, its expected

achievements in the future (Coates, Glenn- The Millennium Project).

According to Edward B. Roberts “Exploratory technological forecasts are largely based

either on aggregates of "genius" forecasts (e.g., the Delphi technique) or on the use of leading

indicators and other simple trend-line approach”. Then he explains that “normative forecasting,

applies to a wide variety of attempts to determine policies, and decisions that will influence the

effective growth of science and technology, in the corporation, the government agency, or the

nation as a whole.” He also quotes Erich Jantsch that “Exploratory technological forecasting starts

from today's assured basis of knowledge and is oriented towards the future, while normative

technological forecasting first assesses future goals, needs, desires, missions, etc., and works

backward to the present …” (Roberts 1969).

Considering the descriptions and implications of two above-mentioned futures oriented

techniques, one can conclude that the project of Future and Security represents a combination of

1Associate Professor of Management, Alfred P. Sloan School of Management, M.I.T.

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exploratory and normative studies. This project’s focus on identifying the factors which work for

and against improving the experienced security and safety can be interpreted as an aspect of its

exploratory nature and its searching for pre-emptive measures on which the authority should focus

can be related to its normative trait.

The main methods used in the project were environmental scanning, classical (consensus)

Delphi and futures workshops. Environmental scanning was used for acquiring information on the

operational environment of the police and exploring some of the main indicators on which the

indexes for the pre-emptive tool were to be based on. The environmental scanning was carried out

through literature review and a panel of experts.

Furthermore, a two round Delphi study and futures workshops were also conducted to

further explore the meaning of safety and security, the factors for and against improving the

perceived security and safety in the society, as well as to identify the indicators of safety and

security and helpful pre-emptive measures. The main parts of the material were gathered through

these two future oriented methods. The whole process was iterative, and data acquired from

previous rounds provided the information used in creating the next part of the study. The results

from each round were presented to the interested panelists, which enabled them to reconsider their

opinions and evaluations during the project.

Considering the nature of Delphi and futures workshop as participatory methods and also

the use of expert panel in environmental scanning, the selection of the panel of experts was a

consequential part of this study. The outcome of the project depended on the knowledge and

expertise of the panelists, so it was essential to include people who were likely to contribute

valuable ideas. Good facilitation was also effective on productivity of Delphi study and futures

workshops. The selected panel including 140 panelists covered almost successfully broad range of

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expertise and several aspects of the issue; among the panelists there were hands-on experts,

researchers as well as moral and social experts.

The consensus Delphi as the dominant application of Delphi, emphasizes convergence in

opinion; seeking for consensus in the Delphi method originates from the assumption that expert’s

consensus is more likely to be accurate than an individual’s forecast. It also causes the participants

to change the opinions which are not strongly held. In the project of Future and Security, a consensus

Delphi was conducted in two rounds of questionnaires; almost 100 people answered the

questionnaires. Furthermore, anonymity was applied in all of the questionnaires.

The Delphi method was a suitable choice for the study, due to the following reasons:

- This study aimed at initiating a security foresight expert network, therefore Delphi as a

method, which facilitates group communication, could contribute positively to this aim. Moreover,

seeking for consensus could be effective in bringing the views of the police and other actors

involved in the network closer thus, preventing communication problems in future co-operation.

- Security is a complex issue that has connections with several social, economic and

political phenomena. Delphi is a suitable method for dealing with complex issues due to the

multidisciplinary nature of the method.

- Delphi is a proper choice for exploring objectively issues that require judgment for which

factual answers do not exist.

- Delphi is a rather time consuming method which makes it unsuitable for the studies with

strict time limits. However, considering the time span of this project (around four years) it was not

a problem in this case.

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In addition, during the study several workshops were held. Around 50 to 70 people

participated in each workshop, who were members of the expert panel. In early stages of the

project, the workshops were focused on creating a common idea on expected threats, then focus

shifted to finding solutions for these threats and in the last stage the workshops concentrated on

issues related to the forecasting tool.

Although in the selection of the panelists, there was an attempt to include various types of

expertise, yet using an expert matrix could be very useful to achieve a comprehensive coverage. It

could also enhance the transparency of the study by providing an organized evidence of the

composition of the panel. Furthermore, according to Ville Lauttamäki, the only criterion for the

selection of the panelists was their expertise. However, in order to increase the comprehensivity of

the panel, other criteria should have been taken into account. For instance, differences between

male and female views and attitudes toward crimes and criminals have been a very controversial

debate, thus considering gender distribution of panelists could have influenced the outcome of the

projects. In addition, age was another criterion which should have been considered regarding the

composition of the panel; considering the fact that younger people are more likely to commit

crimes, having a number of young people among the panelists could have changed the direction of

arguments and results.

Another issue refers to the use of consensus approach of Delphi. Despite the discussed

advantages of applying consensus Delphi in this study, there is always a risk that the consensus

happens as a result of pressure on participants who have extreme opinions. It also neglects the

importance of dis-census and the fact that the opposite views that keep their ground during

discussions may contain early warnings of future developments and be useful in detecting of weak

signals. Weak signals could be helpful in providing hints of the future.

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ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

One of the objectives of the project was to develop a predictive software tool, to assist the

police force on decision-making for scarce resource allocation, in order to be effective at keeping

security. Furthermore, provide recommendations for the future is often included in Futures

research, and according to Bell (2009:44), this means that futures research takes up the right to say

what ‘ought to be done’; considered to be value assertions or value judgments. In this case, the

predictive software tool is based on two indexes formed by a number of indicators provided by

experts throughout the 4-year process. It is difficult to assess value judgments made by the experts

throughout the process, but it can be assumed that since there is only available data and literature

based on the negative aspect of security, value judgments might be inclined to only consider the

negative aspects for the tool.

However, according to the project manager Ville Lauttamäki, the main outcome of the

project was not the predictive software tool but a common understanding on how to achieve a

desired future; but whose desired future is to be pursued? The main driver of the police force is to

show the effectiveness of their work. This is done by assessing the number of cases solved, where

prevented crime is not considered. Preventative measures are difficult to quantify and thus are less

practiced by the police force in comparison to reactive methods. One could argue that the desired

future of an average citizen differs from that of the church and the police, and the rest of the actors

included in the foresight network.

The predictive nature of the tool suggests that drawing conclusions of what “will be” based

on what “is” is an acceptable method to look into the future. This assumes that the future is simply

a continuation of the past and the present. This is generally accepted in social sciences, however,

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according to the Hume’s Guillotine, which claims that there is no strict logical connection between

an observed event and a future event, connection between past and present events with future

events are to be carefully considered. Preemptive policing might cause to deem individuals guilty

before they commit a crime, and therefore information given by a predictive tool needs to be

carefully assessed.

In order for futures arguments with value assertions to be valid, they should, according to

Bell (2009:51), for example follow Keekok Lee’s Epistemic Implication Model. This model is

used to verify and/or falsify futures arguments; a value assertion can be elaborated based on this

model of 5 criteria applied on the descriptive element. However, value assertion and ethical

considerations are not explicitly mentioned in this case, which suggests that they were not

considered in the project. This might be due to the fact that this project was not scientifically

driven but rather driven by the need of the “client” in this case the police force, and thus emphasis

was given to the practical side of developing the software and the network rather than deep ethical

concerns.

IMPORTANCE AND MEANINGFULNESS

It is an inspiring initiative to research ways of improving the alleviation of fears of security

of an average citizen of a geographical area, and most importantly in the face of challenges such as

lack of finances for institutions dealing with security issues, e.g. police. With new challenges,

arises the need for innovation, in other to develop a viable solution suitable for the assigned

purpose; this case tends to make a lot of meaning in this stance. In addition to the mentioned

above, the tool developed also contributes to the growing knowledge in the field, thereby helping

provide foundational knowledge for further research in the area. Although there are some ethical

issues related to infringement of personal rights of citizens, since the process involves the use of

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stored statistical data which probably includes personal information on people activities,

businesses etc. as an instrument of preventing future crimes and rates in the geographical area as

presented in the case.

The case dealt with an important issue for all citizens, given that a good sense of security

and protection is an innate need of every human being. It addressed developing the issue of

“security”, considered to be a basic human needs judging from Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs as

adapted from Martin and Joomis (2007, 72–75). This is also indicated in the table shown below.

Fig1: Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs

Drawing from the above insight, the importance of the case cannot be overstressed other

than its importance in contributing to one of the most important concerns relating to human well-

being. This makes the case meaningful in terms of investigating logical and practical ways towards

the improvement of people’s sense safety and security, while considering intimidating challenges.

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NOVELTY VALUE

The development of a tool of a predictive nature is new, at least for the FFRC in Turku.

According to the project manager Ville Lauttamäki, the case enhanced the importance of the

process over the outcome, which in this specific case was the predictive software tool. The

complexity of the process provided new insight into systems thinking and indicators, as well as the

need for constant development of predictive software tool due to the constant development of

systems. The predictive software tool proved to be an expensive resource due to this continuous

need to update it’s a challenge to overcome by similar tools in the future.

The fact that the project managers decided to develop a tool from scratch was a big

challenge; it left space for old assumptions to be left out thus building a tool from ideas generated

strictly during the process of development for this particular tool. However, it made the process

significantly long and complex than if they had for instance, used an existing tool used by

insurance companies for example as a framework for the new tool. This process however, provided

a valuable learning process for the people involved in the project on tool development and security

issues. However, since the process was long and complicated, the memories of the project might

be bitter, and as a consequence new projects for tool development not considered to be a priority or

important.

In addition, the opportunity to work with an organization that has not before shown interest

in futures research proved to be a valuable learning process and networking process for the people

involved in the project. It created an opportunity for other public organizations to firstly, become

aware of the existence and potential of futures research, and secondly to become curious on the

value it could provide their own organizations.

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PREVIOUS STUDIES

Futures studies on safety and security related issues have been practiced for years around

the world, in general and in Finland in particular. “Futures for Finnish Policing” is the name of an

article published in Futures in November 1996. The study was conducted by Timo Hartikainen and

Mika Mannermaa. The purpose of the study was to outline future development alternatives of

policing in Finland. Two Delphi rounds were completed by 23 experts in social sciences and 30

experts in police administration. Three scenarios were built, the basic assumption in all scenarios

being that inequality in Finland continues to increase and problems with law, order, and safety

keep growing. The final images resulting from each scenario depend on two main factors: the

safety attitudes adopted by common people and the operating mode of the police force. If Finland

were, after all difficulties, to ‘plough along’ as a coherent nation, the police could either keep

status quo or pursue dynamic organizational and personal renewal. If Finland turns more egotistic,

even a well up-to-date police force could not keep the safety situation in reasonable control.

(Hartikainen Mannermaa, 1996).

Moreover, the 12th Annual Conference of the Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC) and

the Finland Futures Academy was held 3–4 June 2010 in Turku with aim of looking deeply into

the inevitable changes of security issues. The conference was titled "Security in Futures – Security

in Change". It contained several keynote speeches and workshops on different aspects of security

and safety from terrorism and crime to control and surveillance. In the FFRC e-book on

proceedings of the conference, several valuable articles can be found.

A global example of futures studies on security issues was carried out shortly after the

September 11, 2001 attacks. Counterterrorism scenarios were requested online from the

2Research fellow with the University of Helsinki

3Senior Research of the Academy of Finland

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Millennium Project participants and the World Future Studies Federation for the United Nations

University. A Delphi study was used for scenario construction. The scenarios were posted online

for further comments. At last, they were analyzed to identify useful policies and actions in fight

against terrorism. The fifty nine identified actions and policies were then submitted to an

international panel for judgments about their effectiveness, plausibility, and unexpected potential

downside risks. (Gordon -The Millennium Project)

MIND MAP

Fig2: Mind Map showing the interconnections between relating presented cases

The mind map as shown above indicates the connections and interrelation of all the case

topics, namely: Renewable Energy in the Baltic Sea Region 2025, Corporate Foresight case STX

Finland, Alternative rural futures and the youth, Transport scenarios for Finland up to 2050,

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Futures of food, Future and Security: Scanning the Changing Environment of the Police and Green

Care - social innovations and cross cutting borders. The Mindmap as designed tends to link all the

presented cases which can be said to each represents an area of human needs as explained by

Maslow’s in his hierarchy of needs pyramid. In explaining the map, each case topic dealt with each

area of recognized human needs which was as much as possible tried to be connected to each other

(same source) as shown in the presented mindmap. The major idea of the mindmap is that all the

case topics presented are all based and tends to provide solutions to bothering and pressing issues

which relates to human needs, hence they are seen as interrelated and connected in this way.

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Fig3: Explanatory Diagram

Balance

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Also, as in the case of the mind map, the presented diagram also tries to show how the case

topics tends to outweigh each other in terms of ratings. It gave a pictorial presentation of which

case topics carries more weight in order of importance if the Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs is

placed as the judging background criteria. This interprets that the ones which are closely essential

to human existence are seen to outweigh the others in order of importance and hence should be

treated as urgent issues. This also explains the connections between the topics with an insight on

how they could be approached.

FURTHER CONSIDERATIONS

APPLICATION VALUE

Pre-crime continues to be a hot topic as technology develops and open new possibilities for

predictive software tools to be used to fight crime in many parts of the world. Predictive software

tools together with mathematical models however, have been used by other sectors such as the

insurance and the reinsurance industries for a significant amount of time. The famous movie

starring Tom Cruise titled Minority Report, in which crimes are predicted and arrests are done

before the crime is committed, does not seem to be far from our reality.

As it has been practiced in several countries, the results of this study can be applied on a

map, creating a crime mapping device that enable the Finnish police to anticipate places and times

with an increased risk of crime, identify individuals at risk of offending in the future and also

groups or, in some cases, individuals who are likely to become victims of crime. In this way, this

tool allows the police to manage resources effectively and do more with less. The police will also

be able to give people who are looking for new home, more accurate advices regarding safer

neighborhoods.

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According to an article written by Brendan Greeley (2011) “The God Clause and the

Reinsurance Industry” the reinsurance company Lloyd´s based on London was able to foresee acts

of terrorism becoming a threat for insurance companies as well as planes becoming a threat to

cities. However, the articles emphasizes that not even Loyd´s, considered an iconic company in

future thinking, was able to predict the events of 9/11 in USA and the events that followed

throughout the insurance sector. As a stratification of 9/11 property insurance premiums increased

drastically, as well as the premiums for white collar jobs, which aim to protect employees from

financial losses caused by accidents at the office. One of the main reasons for people not being

able to combine both of these threats of terrorism and planes, suggested by Trevor Maynard, head

of exposure management for Lloyd´s is that “people find it hard to believe in a risk unless they can

see it in their mind” (Greeley, 2011; 61); before 9/11 it was difficult for people to envision that a

group of so called terrorists would teach themselves to fly a plane, take over several commercial

planes and crash them into important sites in the US.

The development of the predictive software tool was not the main application value of this

case, but the exposure of all the different actors involved in the process and in the network,

including the church, insurance companies, public organizations, etc. to futures thinking. This case

provides evidence of the importance of including the relevant actors in the process of futures

research, because the value of futures research is not only in the results but it can be found in the

process itself. Future software development tools could therefore, aim at developing tools that

enhance future visioning, instead of aiming at predicting the future, which can be extremely

difficult and resource intense. As Schwartz mentions in his book “The art of the long view”, there

is not yet a computer that is able to build scenarios of the future as we humans do. (Schwartz,

1998; 38)

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Predictive software and mathematical models have limitations, as they are unable to foresee

black swans or wild cards, such as violent murders. Heike Trilovzky, head of corporate

underwriting for largest reinsurer Munich, Re stated the following “There cannot be a

mathematical model for people like Bin Laden” (Greeley, 2011; 62). Although black swans are by

definition rare, it is important to be aware of the implications of predictive software and their

limitations. The demand for predictiveness and forecast from the market is strong, but as futurists

it is important to drive our ideas on alternative futures and try to adopt them in market demand.

FUTURE RESEARCH QUESTION (REFLECTION)

The aim of the project that took place between 2004 and 2007 were the following: 1) To

develop a security foresight network, which should improve communication and cooperation in the

future and, 2) Create a pre-emptive security tool which would help the provincial police decide

how to best allocate resources. The following section explains possible developments in the topic

of citizen security based on a simplified trend analysis that can be found in Appendix 2. The

analysis considers trends in 2015 by TRENDONE consulting, and they are analyzed in perspective

with each of the groups represented in the foresight network developed for the case, which

includes insurance companies, the media and schools, among others.

According to the analysis found in appendix 2, some of the potential trends that will

improve but also significantly challenge the security and safety of citizen related to the fast

development in technology in all sectors. For example, mobile technology will allow more data to

be gathered on citizen behavior, which could be used for commercial purposes but also for pre-

crime purposes. Technology will also be capable of enhancing human capabilities, which could be

a threat to security but also be a tool for the improvement of security. Technology will also expand

the boundaries of areas that need security, such as virtual security for example. Virtual threats

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could develop into a serious challenge for the police force in general. Technology will also blur the

line between private and public, allowing data to be used freely but highly unregulated, which

could become a concern for the police force and other law enforcers.

Technology will become part of us, increasing so the challenges of regulating wearable

technology, such as mechanical eyes for the blind for example. Technology will adapt to our needs

and wants as consumers, creating a market of fully customized individuals with complex needs.

The distinctions between sectors such as social well-being, health, technology, virtuality will

become blur, and systems will interconnect creating ever more complex systems difficult to map

and monitor. Citizens will increasingly have customized security and safety needs as our sense of

community is taken over by individualism caused by highly profiled and targeted media enabled

by “big data”, mobile technology and sophisticated computer analytics. The tangible world will

merge more and more with the virtual world, which will allow more detailed data gathering thus

more detailed profiling, but will also give space for new types of crime and threat to the citizen’s

security.

The aim of the project in 2020, about 15 years after the case being evaluated took place,

based on the trend analysis portrayed above could be the following: 1) To develop a security

foresight network, which should improve communication and cooperation in the future. This first

aim would not change; however, the actors in the foresight network would change from localized

to having some global representation in the areas of environmental and natural resource security

for example. Virtual security issues become a bigger concern, thus experts in technological issues

are incorporated into the foresight network. In addition, developing a foresight system for the

provincial police will be a priority 2) the use of technology and big data to predict crime continues

to be an objective, however, the availability of data is better and the option to use crowdsourcing

from social networks, and indicators from the civil society through blogging, for example, are

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included in the pre-emptive security tool. In addition, real-time indicators connected through the

net to the tool are in place.

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The project Future and Security took around four years and finally ended in early 2007.

The most important of its achievements, besides Safety Indicator Data Bank, were embedding

proactive and future-oriented way of thinking in police department and also improving the

cooperation between the actors involved in safety and security field. However from the case, one

may conclude that the learning process of the project was more valuable for FFRC than for the

client. Considering the time span of the project, number of people involved in the study (around

140) and several workshops and seminars, the final results should be more promising. According

to Ville Lauttamäki, the created forecast index was not reliable enough to be useful in resource

guiding while creating an alternative solution for decrease in police funding was main motivations

for starting the project in first place. Moreover the fact that data storage of the databank and also

the theory behind the indexes have not been tested and updated, limits the consumption date of the

created tool.

As for the methodology, emphasizing on consensus Delphi might not be the best choice.

Although, improving cooperation and understanding between different actors as one of the

project's goals justify use of consensus Delphi, but emphasis on convergence in panelists opinions

ignored the importance of strong opposite views which could contain weak signals or early

warnings of future changes. Early warnings and weak signals could have been invaluable source of

information for identifying indicators to create Safety Indicator Data Bank. As an alternative

option for a merely consensus Delphi, during the study equal attention could be paid to the

opposite views which kept their ground and converged opinions. Moreover, the outcome of the

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project could be improved by including more criteria in choosing panelists (other than expertise)

and enhancing variety of panel experts.

According to the available information from the case, the project was started from the

scratch while prior research into other predictive tools and using their experiences and

achievements could be influential in starting with a stronger basis and in time and resources

efficiency. However, in evaluation of futures studies cases, the limitations constrained by outsider

stakeholders (in this case security authority) should be taken into account. In this case, police

authorities had high involvement in the whole process including the choice of methodology. On

the other hand, their unfamiliarity with many of futures studies' fundamentals, could have several

implications for their choices, expectations and also for pace of project fulfillment.

24

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Auffermann, Burkhard - Kaskinen, Juha (2011) Security in futures – security in change. In:

Proceedings of the Conference on Security in Futures – Security in Change. Turku, Finland, 3-4

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Bell, Wendell (2009) Moral Discourse, Objectivity, and the Future. FUTURA 28 (1):43-58.

Coates, Joseph F. - Glenn, Jerome C., Normative forecasting. The Millenium Project - Futures

research methodology 3.0

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Businessweek Magazine pages 60-67.

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861-872.

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15.01.2014

25

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retrieved 13.01.2014

26

APPENDIX 1 - Questionnaire Ville Lauttamäki

1. What was the purpose of environmental scanning? Did you do it with help of panel of

experts, by use of literature review or both of them?

The purpose of environmental scanning was to: a) gain information on operational environment of

the police, b) formulate a foresight program for the provincial police command for the next two

years, c) develop foresight capabilities of the personnel of the provincial police command by

designing an education package for their disposal, d) assist in improving interaction between actors

of the security branch. Environmental scanning was carried out as a combination of literary

review, seminar and questionnaire. In the last two stages, information was gathered from the

experts.

2. Did you apply anonymity at any point (as an aspect of Delphi study)?

Anonymity was applied in all questionnaires

3. Did you have all 140 panelists in all seminars or divided them into smaller groups?

No, 140 is a total figure of different individuals in all events. Typically each seminar had 50-70

participants, questionnaires were typically answered by roughly 100 experts.

4. Did you consider number of men and women in selecting panelists?

No, expertise was the only thing considered

5. According to the lecture's slides, in the project progress, you applied literature review,

questionnaires and seminars. Since future workshops were part of the methodology, when and for

what purpose did you hold them and who were the participants?

In all seminars futures workshops were held. Participants were members of the expert groups.

Themes varied, in early stages of the project the focus was on creating a common idea on expected

threats, then focus shifted of finding solutions to avoid these threats and in the last stage the

workshops concentrated on issues related to the forecasting tool (safety indicator databank)

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6. Did you have a research question and if so what was or were they?

This project wasn’t driven by the need to promote science, rather than to bring new information,

understanding and tools to help police in their resource guiding. So, strictly speaking there was no

research question as such. I’d rather speak about goals of the project (see answer 1 and slide 3 on

the lecture slides)

7. When the Literature Review was conducting, did you apply any particular theory? If so,

what was or were they?

No. The idea was to collect a representative sample of recent writings on issues related to Finnish

public security sector and its future as well as of foresight literature on expected developments in

societies around the world.

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APPENDIX 2 - Trend foresight network analysis

The following section explores possible ways in which the actors of the foresight network

developed for this project on future and security could be affected by the main trends by

TRENDONE consulting. The trends can be found in the image below.

Fig 4: Trends 2015 by TRENONE consulting

As usual, regulation and clear frameworks provided by legislators will take time to be developed

and fully approved, thus expanding the gap between speeding technological innovation and

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regulation for it. The concern of robots spying on the average citizen will become a legitimate

concern, already with flying drones and insect drones being developed for commercial purposes.

The following section will explain some of the alternative outcomes of trends for the actors

that form part of the foresight network of security in Finland. Traditional actors of the security

branch such as the military, police, customs, border control and emergency services

Data Era and Outernet: profiling and more detailed statistical data from different sources are

available for statistical analysis; Shy-tech will contribute with technological development of

smart devices. People will have the opportunity to experience an alternative life through a

virtual life; the challenge will be the huge amount of data and the new and continuously

changing citizen needs. In addition, people will have increasingly access to dangerous and

hazardous things. It will be a challenge for the traditional security branches to stay up to date

with technological advancements, and new threats, such as virtual crime for example. Human

2.0 could create enhanced humans which could create a threat to the humans without

enhancement.

Different branches of local authority such as social- school- and health services could need to

adapt to issues concerning changes triggered by Human 2.0 and health style that will drive

people to become further individualistic creating an environment that will lack the social aspect

of a community. Thus, security issues will become more and more customized according to

individual perceived needs and wants. The public sector would be the most affected due to

resource and legislation restrictions.

Legislating bodies could encounter challenges regarding Shy-tech, Human 2.0, Outernet and

Data Era and the speed at which these will develop, thus legislative bodies will need to act fast

to regulate activities by the private companies like data gathering, profiling, and protect the

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average citizen from human enhancement that might be cause for concern and individuals

privacy rights. In addition, security must be enhanced continuously in their IT systems.

Judges, prison authority could face increasing challenges due to technological advancements.

Prison security could be both enhanced and threaten by Shy-Tech, such as flexible electronics,

smart sensors. Wireless transmission and human 2.0 with robotics and human enhancements.

Judges could face virtual crime before clear regulation and laws are developed, which could be

challenging.

The church could face the broadening of the gap between believers and nonbelievers, and

could face questioning by faithful’s on issues like human enhancement and virtual life, among

others.

The tax authority face new challenges with the continuous development of new business

models based on virtual worlds create a challenge for the tax authorities on how to tax their

activities.

Researches specialized in study of society could face a time in which change occurs at a faster

rate due to technological development that allows humans to interconnect more and more, and

in an environment in which therefore, values continue to change and are not set to a regional or

even a national culture. The interaction between people and technology could become closer

and more intimate, which could develop interesting societal phenomenon.

Private businesses, especially insurance, finance and security firms enhance the increasing

availability of Big Data. The availability of big data is possible due to outernet sources could

allow companies to create extremely detailed consumer profiles, and to create customized

marketing to develop close and sometimes intimate relationships with their customers through

wearable and mobile technology. In addition, gaming could become a powerful tool to build

relationships with customers, teach customers about the brand or others. New forms of

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branding could arise from e-health, and e-learning, as well as from mobile payment, allowing

customers to buy anywhere at any time.

Organizations of trade and industry build systems that could become more complex due to

further and unexpected interactions between companies of different industries for example.

The virtual world could build industries and trade on its own which will be questioned on

whether or not should be taken into consideration by the physical organizations.

Non-governmental organizations could see an increasing interest on their activities, especially

those involved in issues regarding the environment due to the Evolution trend. Apps and other

forms of virtual connection could enhance their communication with the average citizen to

improve general awareness on their activities. The charity culture arising from the attention

economy could increase the percentage of funding from the average citizen.

Representatives of the media could have more channels to address the public with the

continuous development of mobile technology. Furthermore, attention economy brings what is

called snack-size media, which means that people might have even less details on important

information that currently, and furthermore, it could be manipulated into a story that will sell

and lose most of its informative value. Social networks and microbloggers could take over the

task of journalism.