COMMERCIAL / MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT

MD Q4Q4OMDOCOMMERCIAL / MULTIFAMILY

MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDING | Q4 2016

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COMMERCIAL / MULTIFAMILY REAL ESTATE MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDING Q4 2016

4. Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding Fourth Quarter 2016 The level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding increased by $46.0 billion in the fourth quarter of 2016, as three of the four major investor groups increased their holdings. That is a 1.6 percent increase over the third quarter of 2016. On a year-over-year basis, the amount of mortgage debt outstanding at the end of 2016 was $162.0 billion higher than at the end of 2015, an increase of 5.8 percent. Total commercial/multifamily debt outstanding rose to $2.96 trillion at the end of the fourth quarter. Multifamily mortgage debt outstanding rose to $1.14 trillion, an increase of $27.3 billion, or 2.4 percent, from the third of quarter of 2016. “Commercial and multifamily mortgage debt outstanding grew roughly in line with property values in 2016,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research. “With property values up eight percent, the amount of mortgage debt outstanding grew six percent. Looking just at multifamily properties, an 11 percent increase in property values was met with a ten percent increase in mortgage debt.” The four major investor groups are: bank and thrift; commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS), collateralized debt obligation (CDO) and other asset backed securities (ABS) issues; federal agency and government sponsored enterprise (GSE) portfolios and mortgage backed securities (MBS); and life insurance companies. The analysis summarizes the holdings of loans or, if the loans are securitized, the form of the security. For example, many life insurance companies invest both in whole loans for which they hold the mortgage note (and which appear in this data under Life Insurance Companies) and in CMBS, CDOs and other ABS for which the security issuers and trustees hold the note (and which appear here under CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues).

Commercial banks continue to hold the largest share of commercial/multifamily mortgages, $1.2 trillion, or 40 percent of the total.

Commercial Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding By Investor Group, Fourth Quarter 2016

Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS are the second largest holders of commercial/multifamily mortgages, holding $521 billion, or 18 percent of the total. CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues hold $459 billion, or 16 percent of the total, and life insurance companies hold $420 billion, or 14 percent of the total. Many life insurance companies, banks and the GSEs purchase and hold CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues. These loans appear in the “CMBS, CDO and other ABS” category. MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDING Looking solely at multifamily mortgages, agency and GSE portfolios and MBS hold the largest share, with $521 billion, or 46 percent of the total multifamily debt outstanding. They are followed by banks and thrifts with $383 billion, or 34 percent of the total. State and local government hold $92 billion, or 8 percent of the total; life insurance companies hold $66 billion, or 6 percent of the total; CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues hold $47 billion, or 4 percent of the total, and nonfarm noncorporate business holds $13 billion, or one percent of the total. CHANGES IN COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDING In the fourth quarter of 2016, banks and thrifts saw the largest increase in dollar terms in their holdings of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt – an increase of $26.8 billion, or 2.3 percent. Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS increased their holdings by $21.3 billion, or 4.3 percent, and life insurance companies increased their holdings by $6.5 billion, or 1.6 percent. CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues saw the largest decrease at $8.4 billion, or down 1.8 percent. In percentage terms, other insurance companies saw the largest increase in their holdings of commercial/multifamily mortgages, an increase of 6.5 percent. REITs saw their holdings decrease 4.8 percent. CHANGES IN MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDING The $27.3 billion increase in multifamily mortgage debt outstanding between the third and fourth quarters of 2016 represents a 2.4 percent increase. In dollar terms, agency and GSE portfolios and MBS saw the largest increase in their holdings of multifamily mortgage debt, an increase of $21.3 billion, or 4.3 percent. Commercial banks increased their holdings of multifamily mortgage debt by $8.5 billion, or 2.3 percent. Life

insurance companies increased by $953 million, or 1.5 percent. CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues saw the largest decline in their holdings of multifamily mortgage debt, by $4.1 billion, or down 8.0 percent. In percentage terms, REITs recorded the largest increase in holdings of multifamily mortgages, at 5.2 percent. CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues saw the biggest decrease at 8.0 percent. CHANGES IN COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDING DURING 2016 Between December 2015 and December 2016, commercial banks and thrifts saw the largest increase in dollar terms in their holdings of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt - an increase of $115 billion, or 11 percent. CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues decreased their holdings of commercial/multifamily mortgages by $56.5 billion, or 11 percent. In percentage terms, other insurance companies saw the largest increase in their holdings of commercial/multifamily mortgages, an increase of 28 percent. State and local government retirement funds saw the largest decrease, at 30 percent. CHANGES IN MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDING DURING 2016 The $99.6 billion increase in multifamily mortgage debt outstanding during 2016 represents a 9.6 percent increase. In dollar terms, Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS saw the largest increase in their holdings of multifamily mortgage debt - an increase of $67.6 billion, or 15 percent. CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues saw a decrease of $14.7 billion in their holdings, or 24 percent. In percentage terms, REITs recorded the largest increase in their holdings of multifamily mortgages, 19 percent, while state and local government retirement funds saw the largest decrease, 34 percent. MBA’s complete Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding report can be downloaded here. MBA’s analysis is based on data from the Federal Reserve Board’s Financial Accounts of the United States, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s Quarterly Banking Profile and

data from Wells Fargo Securities. More information on this data series is contained in Appendix A.

YEAR END COMMERCIAL AND MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDINGCommercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector

Mortgage Debt Outstanding2016 Q4

($millions) Percent

2015 Q4Change

($millions)% of total ($millions)

% of total

Sector Share of $

Bank and Thrift 1,193,293 1,078,143 115,150 10.7%40.4% 38.6% 71.1%

Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS 520,989 453,424 67,565 14.9%17.6% 16.2% 41.7%CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues 458,860 515,346 -56,486 -11.0%15.5% 18.4% -34.9%Life insurance companies 420,039 393,253 26,786 6.8%14.2% 14.1% 16.5%State and local government 109,802 106,262 3,540 3.3%3.7% 3.8% 2.2%Federal government 83,302 82,196 1,106 1.3%2.8% 2.9% 0.7%REITs 66,792 61,701 5,091 8.3%2.3% 2.2% 3.1%Finance companies 24,870 29,760 -4,890 -16.4%0.8% 1.1% -3.0%Nonfarm noncorporate business 24,065 22,602 1,463 6.5%0.8% 0.8% 0.9%Private pension funds 20,212 20,045 167 0.8%0.7% 0.7% 0.1%

Other insurance companies 15,777 12,340 3,437 27.9%0.5% 0.4% 2.1%Nonfinancial corporate business 13,185 12,406 779 6.3%0.4% 0.4% 0.5%State and local government retirement 4,330 6,143 -1,813 -29.5%0.1% 0.2% -1.1%Household sector 1,054 999 55 5.5%0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2,956,570 2,794,620TOTAL 161,950 5.8%

Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Intex Solutions, In

Note: Beginning with the Q2 2014 release, MBA’s analysis of mortgage debt outstanding modifies the data from the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States with respect to loans held in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and by real estate investment trusts (REITs). The corrections create differences with previous releases and with the Federal Reserve data. For more information, please see the Appendix to this report.

YEAR END MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDINGMultifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector


($millions) Percent

2015 Q4Change


% of total

Sector Share of $

Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS 520,989 453,424 67,565 14.9%45.6% 43.5% 67.9%

Bank and Thrift 382,722 344,063 38,659 11.2%33.5% 33.0% 38.8%State and local government 91,502 88,552 2,950 3.3%8.0% 8.5% 3.0%Life insurance companies 66,039 60,613 5,426 9.0%5.8% 5.8% 5.5%CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues 47,297 62,017 -14,720 -23.7%4.1% 6.0% -14.8%Nonfarm noncorporate business 13,283 12,476 807 6.5%1.2% 1.2% 0.8%Federal government 12,588 12,847 -259 -2.0%1.1% 1.2% -0.3%REITs 2,048 1,728 320 18.5%0.2% 0.2% 0.3%State and local government retirement 1,913 2,879 -966 -33.6%0.2% 0.3% -1.0%Private pension funds 1,623 1,882 -259 -13.8%0.1% 0.2% -0.3%

Finance companies 1,245 1,243 2 0.2%0.1% 0.1% 0.0%Nonfinancial corporate business 507 477 30 6.3%0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

1,141,756 1,042,201TOTAL 99,555 9.6%

Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Intex Solutions, I


COMMERCIAL AND MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDINGTotal Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Quarter($millions)

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

200

7Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q20

08Q

120

08Q

220

08Q

320

08Q

200

9Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q20

10Q

120

10Q

220

10Q

320

10Q

420

11Q

120

11Q

220

11Q

320

11Q

420

12Q

120

12Q

220

12Q

320

12Q

420

13Q

120

13Q

220

13Q

320

13Q

420

14Q

120

14Q

220

14Q

320

14Q

420

15Q

120

15Q

220

15Q

320

15Q

420

16Q

120

16Q

220

16Q

320

16Q

4

MF Commercial

Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Intex Solutions, Inc. and FDIC

QUARTERLY COMMERCIAL AND MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDINGCommercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector


($millions) Percent

2016 Q3Change

($millions) % of total ($millions) % of

total

Sector Share of $ Change

Bank and Thrift 1,193,293 1,166,449 26,844 2.3%40.4% 40.1% 58.3%Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS 520,989 499,728 21,261 4.3%17.6% 17.2% 46.2%CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues 458,860 467,219 -8,359 -1.8%15.5% 16.1% -18.2%Life insurance companies 420,039 413,586 6,453 1.6%14.2% 14.2% 14.0%State and local government 109,802 109,146 656 0.6%3.7% 3.7% 1.4%Federal government 83,302 82,128 1,174 1.4%2.8% 2.8% 2.6%REITs 66,792 70,153 -3,361 -4.8%2.3% 2.4% -7.3%Finance companies 24,870 25,132 -262 -1.0%0.8% 0.9% -0.6%Nonfarm noncorporate business 24,065 23,739 326 1.4%0.8% 0.8% 0.7%Private pension funds 20,212 20,116 96 0.5%0.7% 0.7% 0.2%Other insurance companies 15,777 14,809 968 6.5%0.5% 0.5% 2.1%Nonfinancial corporate business 13,185 12,991 194 1.5%0.4% 0.4% 0.4%State and local government retirement funds 4,330 4,330 0 0.0%0.1% 0.1% 0.0%Household sector 1,054 1,037 17 1.6%0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2,956,570 2,910,563TOTAL 46,007 1.6%

Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Intex Solutions, Inc. and FDICNote: Beginning with the Q2 2014 release, MBA’s analysis of mortgage debt outstanding modifies the data from the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States with respect to loans held in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and by real estate investment trusts (REITs). The corrections create differences with previous releases and with the Federal Reserve data. For more information, please see the Appendix to this report.

COMMERCIAL AND MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDINGTotal Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector($millions)


1,054

4,330

13,185

15,777

20,212

24,065

24,870

66,792

83,302

109,802

420,039

458,860

520,989

1,193,293

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000

Household sector

State and local government retirement funds

Nonfinancial corporate business

Other insurance companies

Private pension funds

Nonfarm noncorporate business

Finance companies

REITs

Federal government

State and local government

Life insurance companies

CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues

Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS

Bank and Thrift

2016Q3 2016Q4

COMMERCIAL AND MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDINGTotal Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Selected Sectorby Quarter($millions)


0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1995

Q1

1996

Q1

1997

Q1

1998

Q1

1999

Q1

200

0Q

1

200

1Q1

200

2Q1

200

3Q1

200

4Q1

200

5Q1

200

6Q1

200

7Q1

200

8Q1

200

9Q1

2010

Q1

2011

Q1

2012

Q1

2013

Q1

2014

Q1

2015

Q1

2016

Q1

Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS Bank and Thrift CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues Life insurance companies

COMMERCIAL AND MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE FLOWSNet Change in Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Quarter($millions)


(40,000)

(20,000)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

200

7Q2

200

7Q3

200

7Q4

200

8Q1

200

8Q2

200

8Q3

200

8Q4

200

9Q1

200

9Q2

200

9Q3

200

9Q4

2010

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2011

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2012

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2013

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2014

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Q3

2014

Q4

2015

Q1

2015

Q2

2015

Q3

2015

Q4

2016

Q1

2016

Q2

2016

Q3

2016

Q4

MF Commercial TOTAL

COMMERCIAL AND MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE FLOWSNet Change in Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector($millions)


(8,359)

0

96

194

326

656

968

1,174

1,223

6,453

21,261

26,844

(262)

17

(20,000) (15,000) (10,000) (5,000) 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000


Finance companies


Household sector





Other insurance companies

Federal government

REITs



Bank and Thrift

2016Q3 2016Q4

MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDING

MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDINGTotal Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Quarter($millions)


0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

200

7Q1

200

7Q2

200

7Q3

200

7Q4

200

8Q1

200

8Q2

200

8Q3

200

8Q20

09Q

120

09Q

220

09Q

320

09Q

2010

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2011Q

120

11Q2

2011Q

320

11Q4

2012

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2013

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2014

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Q3

2014

Q4

2015

Q1

2015

Q2

2015

Q3

2015

Q4

2016

Q1

2016

Q2

2016

Q3

2016

Q4

QUARTERLY MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDINGMultifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector


($millions) Percent

2016 Q3Change


% of total

Sector Share of $ Change

Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS 520,989 499,728 21,261 4.3%45.6% 44.8% 77.9%

Bank and Thrift 382,722 374,272 8,450 2.3%33.5% 33.6% 31.0%

State and local government 91,502 90,955 547 0.6%8.0% 8.2% 2.0%

Life insurance companies 66,039 65,086 953 1.5%5.8% 5.8% 3.5%

CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues 47,297 51,403 -4,106 -8.0%4.1% 4.6% -15.1%

Nonfarm noncorporate business 13,283 13,103 180 1.4%1.2% 1.2% 0.7%

Federal government 12,588 12,527 61 0.5%1.1% 1.1% 0.2%

State and local government retirement funds 1,913 2,029 -116 -5.7%0.2% 0.2% -0.4%

REITs 2,048 1,947 101 5.2%0.2% 0.2% 0.4%

Private pension funds 1,623 1,688 -65 -3.9%0.1% 0.2% -0.2%

Finance companies 1,245 1,241 4 0.3%0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Nonfinancial corporate business 507 500 7 1.4%0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

1,141,756 1,114,479TOTAL 27,277 2.4%



MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDINGTotal Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector($millions)


507

1,245

1,623

1,913

2,048

12,588

13,283

47,297

66,039

91,502

382,722

520,989

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000


Finance companies



REITs

Federal government





Bank and Thrift


2016Q3 2016Q4

MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDINGTotal Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Selected Sector by Quarter($millions)


0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

198

0Q

1

198

2Q

1

198

4Q

1

198

6Q

1

198

8Q

1

199

0Q

1

199

2Q

1

199

4Q

1

199

6Q

1

199

8Q

1

20

00

Q1

20

02

Q1

20

04

Q1

20

06

Q1

20

08

Q1

20

10Q

1

20

12Q

1

20

14Q

1

20

16Q

1

Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS Bank and Thrift CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues

Life insurance companies State and local government

MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE FLOWSNet Change in Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Quarter($millions)


(5,000)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

200

7Q2

200

7Q3

200

7Q4

200

8Q1

200

8Q2

200

8Q3

200

8Q4

200

9Q1

200

9Q2

200

9Q3

200

9Q4

2010

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2011

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2012

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2013

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2014

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Q3

2014

Q4

2015

Q1

2015

Q2

2015

Q3

2015

Q4

2016

Q1

2016

Q2

2016

Q3

2016

Q4

MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE FLOWSNet Change in Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector($millions)


-4,106

-116

-65

4

61

101

180

547

953

8,450

21,261

7

(10,000) (5,000) 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000




Finance companies


Federal government

REITs




Bank and Thrift


2016Q3 2016Q4

APPENDIX A MBA’s analysis is based on data from the Federal Reserve Board’s Financial Accounts of the United States, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s Quarterly Banking Profile and data from Wells Fargo Securities. Bank Holdings MBA’s analysis of commercial and multifamily mortgage debt outstanding was changed in the fourth quarter of 2010 to exclude two categories of loans that had previously been included;

a. loans for acquisition, development and construction and b. loans collateralized by owner-occupied commercial properties.

By excluding these loan types, MBA’s analysis more accurately reflects the balance of loans supported by office buildings, retail centers, apartment buildings and other income-producing properties that rely on rents and leases to make their payments. For the fourth quarter 2016, the Federal Reserve Board’s Flow of Funds Accounts data attributed $2.0 trillion of outstanding commercial and multifamily mortgages to banks and thrifts. Comparing this number to the FDIC’s Quarterly Banking Profile for the same period, one sees that banks and thrifts held $383 billion of multifamily mortgages and $1,324.0 billion of non-farm nonresidential mortgages, of which 61 percent or $811 billion were income-producing. The combined $1.19 trillion of mortgages backed by multifamily and other income-producing properties is included in this analysis. The $2.0 trillion total reported by the Federal Reserve also includes $513 billion of loans collateralized by owner-occupied commercial properties and another $313 billion of loans backed by acquisition, development and construction projects (including those for single-family development), which are excluded in from this analysis.

Estimated Components of Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds “Commercial and Multifamily Mortgages” Held by Banks and Thrifts ($Billions)

Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC

Construction loans, $313.2

Owner-occupied

commercial mortgages,

$513.4 Income-

producing commercial mortgages,

$810.6

Multifamily mortgages,

$382.7

Mortgages in CMBS and held by REITs Beginning with its Q2 2014 release, the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States adjusted its balance of commercial mortgages held in CMBS and by REITs to reflect the impact of FAS 167 and its implications for how entities report certain securitized mortgages on their balance sheets. The effect of this change was to inflate the balance of mortgages appearing under REITs by approximately $130 billion and to reduce the balance appearing under CMBS by the same amount. From an accounting perspective, such changes are required, but the changes lead to a significant distortion of the size of the CMBS and REIT markets. For CMBS, MBA corrects for this by relying on data from Wells Fargo Securities to size the balance of commercial and multifamily mortgages in CMBS. (The analysis continues to rely on the Financial Accounts of the United States to size multifamily balances held in CMBS, as the FAS 167 adjustments did not affect them.) For REIT balances, MBA uses Fed data to reverse the FAS 167 inclusions and thus to report the mortgages, and not securitized assets, that REITs hold. The full corrected series are available as a part of MBA’s CREF Database. Contact [email protected] for more information.

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COMMERCIAL / MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT