140

China's Road Ahead: Problems, Questions, Perspectives

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SpringerBriefs in Political Science

For further volumes:http://www.springer.com/series/8871

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China’s Road Ahead

Problems, Questions, Perspectives

1 3

,661����������� � � � � � � � � � � � � ,661������������HOHFWURQLF�,6%1������������������� � � � � � � � � ,6%1��������������������H%RRN�'2,��������������������������6SULQJHU�1HZ�<RUN�+HLGHOEHUJ�'RUGUHFKW�/RQGRQ

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��7KH�$XWKRU�V������7KLV�ZRUN�LV�VXEMHFW�WR�FRS\ULJKW��$OO�ULJKWV�DUH�UHVHUYHG�E\�WKH�3XEOLVKHU��ZKHWKHU�WKH�ZKROH�RU�SDUW�RI�WKH�PDWHULDO�LV�FRQFHUQHG��VSHFLILFDOO\�WKH�ULJKWV�RI�WUDQVODWLRQ��UHSULQWLQJ��UHXVH�RI�LOOXVWUDWLRQV��UHFLWD�WLRQ��EURDGFDVWLQJ��UHSURGXFWLRQ�RQ�PLFURILOPV�RU�LQ�DQ\�RWKHU�SK\VLFDO�ZD\��DQG�WUDQVPLVVLRQ�RU�LQIRU�PDWLRQ�VWRUDJH�DQG�UHWULHYDO��HOHFWURQLF�DGDSWDWLRQ��FRPSXWHU�VRIWZDUH��RU�E\�VLPLODU�RU�GLVVLPLODU�PHWK�RGRORJ\�QRZ�NQRZQ�RU�KHUHDIWHU�GHYHORSHG��([HPSWHG�IURP�WKLV�OHJDO�UHVHUYDWLRQ�DUH�EULHI�H[FHUSWV�LQ�FRQQHFWLRQ�ZLWK�UHYLHZV�RU�VFKRODUO\�DQDO\VLV�RU�PDWHULDO�VXSSOLHG�VSHFLILFDOO\�IRU�WKH�SXUSRVH�RI�EHLQJ�HQWHUHG�DQG�H[HFXWHG�RQ�D�FRPSXWHU�V\VWHP��IRU�H[FOXVLYH�XVH�E\�WKH�SXUFKDVHU�RI�WKH�ZRUN��'XSOLFD�WLRQ�RI�WKLV�SXEOLFDWLRQ�RU�SDUWV�WKHUHRI�LV�SHUPLWWHG�RQO\�XQGHU�WKH�SURYLVLRQV�RI�WKH�&RS\ULJKW�/DZ�RI�WKH�3XEOLVKHU¶V� ORFDWLRQ�� LQ� LWV�FXUUHQW�YHUVLRQ��DQG�SHUPLVVLRQ�IRU�XVH�PXVW�DOZD\V�EH�REWDLQHG�IURP�6SULQJHU��3HUPLVVLRQV�IRU�XVH�PD\�EH�REWDLQHG�WKURXJK�5LJKWV/LQN�DW�WKH�&RS\ULJKW�&OHDUDQFH�&HQWHU��9LRODWLRQV�DUH�OLDEOH�WR�SURVHFXWLRQ�XQGHU�WKH�UHVSHFWLYH�&RS\ULJKW�/DZ�The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publica�WLRQ�GRHV�QRW�LPSO\��HYHQ�LQ�WKH�DEVHQFH�RI�D�VSHFLILF�VWDWHPHQW��WKDW�VXFK�QDPHV�DUH�H[HPSW�IURP�WKH�relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.While the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publica�WLRQ��QHLWKHU�WKH�DXWKRUV�QRU�WKH�HGLWRUV�QRU�WKH�SXEOLVKHU�FDQ�DFFHSW�DQ\�OHJDO�UHVSRQVLELOLW\�IRU�DQ\�HUURUV�RU�RPLVVLRQV�WKDW�PD\�EH�PDGH��7KH�SXEOLVKHU�PDNHV�QR�ZDUUDQW\��H[SUHVV�RU�LPSOLHG��ZLWK�UHVSHFW�WR�the material contained herein.

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6SULQJHU�LV�SDUW�RI�6SULQJHU�6FLHQFH�%XVLQHVV�0HGLD��ZZZ�VSULQJHU�FRP�

Roland Benedikter8QLYHUVLW\�RI�&DOLIRUQLD��6DQWD�%DUEDUDSanta BarbaraCAUSA

9HUHQD�1RZRWQ\)RUPHU�)RUHLJQ�3ROLF\�6SRNHVSHUVRQ� Government of Austria9LHQQDAustria

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Endorsements

“This is a book I recommend to students and teachers around the globe. It provides a concise introduction into present China’s main problems, questions and perspec�WLYHV��$�PXVW�IRU�DOO�ZKR�WU\�WR�XQGHUVWDQG�WKH�ULVLQJ�3DFLILF�JLDQW�QRW�WKURXJK�VKRUW�WHUP�DQVZHUV��EXW�WKURXJK�ORQJ�WHUP�TXHVWLRQV�´Professor Ole Bruun, Institute for Society and Globalization, Roskilde University, Denmark

³7KH�ULVH�RI�&KLQD�WR�JOREDO�VXSHUSRZHU�FDOOV�IRU�FOHDU��FRQGHQVHG��\HW�FRPSUHKHQ�sive comments for the broader public. This book accomplishes those goals, provid�LQJ�D�TXLFN�\HW�FRPSUHKHQVLYH�LQWURGXFWLRQ�LQWR�ZKDW�ZH�PD\�H[SHFW�DV�WKH�0LGGOH�.LQJGRP�VHHNV�WR�DVVHUW�ZKDW�LW�LQFUHDVLQJO\�VHHV�DV�LWV�ULJKWIXO�UROH�DV�D�OHDGLQJ�ZRUOG�SRZHU�´Professor Richard Appelbaum, MacArthur Foundation Chair in Global & International Studies and Sociology, University of California at Santa Barbara

“The new constellation between China and the West needs inspiring departure SRLQWV�RI�GLVFXVVLRQ��ZKLFK�PD\�EH�VREHU�RU�SURYRFDWLYH��7KLV�ERRNOHW� LV�ERWK�LQ�RQH�� ,W�VKRXOG�EH�XVHG�DV�D�EDVLV� IRU� LQ�GHSWK�GLVFXVVLRQ�DQG�,� UHFRPPHQG�LW� IRU�FODVVURRPV�DQG�WKH�JOREDO�FLYLO�VRFLHW\�GHEDWH�´Professor Jan Nederveen Pieterse, Mellichamp Professor of Global Studies and Sociology, University of California at Santa Barbara

vii

Abstract

&KLQD� WRGD\� LV�D� ULVLQJ�JLDQW� LQ� WUDQVLWLRQ��6LQFH� WKH�VWDUW�RI� WKH�QHZ�JRYHUQPHQW�XQGHU�;L�-LQSLQJ�� UHIRUPV�DUH�XQGHUZD\�RQ�DOO� OHYHOV�DQG� LQ�HYHU\�ILHOG��SROLWLFV��HFRQRP\�� ILQDQFH�� GHPRJUDSK\�� DQG� UHOLJLRQ��7KH� UHODWLRQ� EHWZHHQ� �&RPPXQLVW��HOLWH�DQG��&RQIXFLDQ��FXOWXUH�LV�VKLIWLQJ��DQG�VR�LV�WKH�RQH�EHWZHHQ�WKH�JRYHUQPHQW�DQG�WKH�SRSXODWLRQ��0HDQZKLOH��WKH�PLOLWDU\�LQGXVWULDO�FRPSOH[�LV�UDSLGO\�H[SDQGLQJ�LWV�LQIOXHQFH�DQG�RXWUHDFK��:LOO�&KLQD�EH�DEOH�WR�PDVWHU�WKH�PDQ\��DQG�LQ�PDQ\�ZD\V�unprecedented challenges? Will it succeed to balance an all too rapid development E\�PDNLQJ�LW�PRUH�VXVWDLQDEOH"�,Q�RWKHU�ZRUGV��:LOO�&KLQD�VXFFHHG�LQ�PRYLQJ�IURP�D�³VXFFHVVIXO´�WR�D�³UHVLOLHQW´�VRFLHW\"�:KDW�LV�WKH�URDG�DKHDG"

L[

Contents

Abstract ............................................................................................................. vii

Foreword .......................................................................................................... �� [L

Introduction: China, a Giant in Transition ................................................... �� [LLL

About the Authors and Contributors ............................................................. � [Y

1 Xi Jinping’s China. The Motive Behind China’s Current

Transition: Foreign Success is Changing Domestic Behavior ................ 1Roland Benedikter

2 The Cry for Chinese Democratization: Between

Idealism and Realism .................................................................................� ��Roland Benedikter

3 The 2012–2013 Generational Power Transfer and Its

Perspectives: The Rule of Law or Democracy? .......................................� ��5RODQG�%HQHGLNWHU�DQG�9HUHQD�1RZRWQ\

4 The Ethnonationalism Problem: Is There a Feasible Solution

in Sight? The Cases of the Uyghurs and Tibet .......................................� ��Roland Benedikter

5 China’s New Foreign Policy and the West: The Case

of the European Debt Crisis .....................................................................� ��5RODQG�%HQHGLNWHU�DQG�-DH�6HXQJ�/HH

6 China and Its Neighbors: How to Sustain Democracy

and Democratization in the Pacific? The Case of South Korea ............� ��Roland Benedikter

Contents[

7 China: The Road Ahead ...........................................................................� ��Roland Benedikter

8 Perspectives I: Basing China’s Government on Legitimacy

and Values: An Interview with Peng Bo ................................................... 1079HUHQD�1RZRWQ\

9 Perspectives II: Coexistence Between Communitarian China

and the Individualistic United States: An Interview

with Robert Martin Lees ...........................................................................� ���Roland Benedikter

[L

Foreword

One can often learn more from questions than from answers. This plum of ancient Chinese wisdom provides a fitting departure point for some reflections on this mas�WHUIXO�ERRN�RQ�SUHVHQW�&KLQD��)RU�QHRSK\WH�DQG�DGYDQFHG�VFKRODUV�LQ�HYHU\�UHDOP�RI�WKH�VRFLDO�VFLHQFHV��IRU�SROLF\�PDNHUV�DQG�IRU�FRQFHUQHG�LQGLYLGXDOV��VHW�LQ�WKH�panorama of disruptive transformation in world order with social, political, eco�QRPLF��WHFKQRORJLFDO��LGHRORJLFDO�DQG�YDOXHV�GLOHPPDV�RQ�HYHU\�FRQWLQHQW��&KLQD�is in a phase of unprecedented transition that demands attention, understanding and UHIOHFWLRQ��7KLV�ERRN�SURYLGHV�D�VLJQLILFDQW�UHVRXUFH�IRU�DOO�ZKR�ZRXOG�JR�EH\RQG�WKH�KHDGOLQHV�� WKH�P\WKV�DQG�SRSXODU�DVVXPSWLRQV�DQG�SUREH�GHHSO\� LQWR�&KLQD¶V�development.

China’s Road Ahead� LV� QRW� D� FRPSHQGLXP�RI� GRJPDWLFDOO\� LQVSLUHG� DQVZHUV��EXW�D�SRQGHUHG�VHW�RI�FULWLFDO�TXHVWLRQV��)URP�WKH�YDQWDJH�SRLQW�RI�LQWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\�VFKRODUV�ZLWK�H[WHQVLYH�SUDFWLFDO�SROLWLFDO�H[SHULHQFH�DQG�EURDG�DFFHVV�WR�UHOHYDQW�SHRSOH�DQG�LQIRUPDWLRQ��WKH�DXWKRUV�FDUHIXOO\�VKDUH�WKHLU�DW�WLPHV�SURYRFDWLYHO\�DU�ticulated perspectives as challenges to the reader to further question, research and assess.

The core question: What will be China’s road ahead?�IUDPHG�LQ�WKH�FRQWH[W�RI�WKH�recent transfer of power to a new generation of leaders leads to a well constructed DUUD\�RI�PRUH�GHWDLOHG�TXHVWLRQV�ZKLFK�LQFOXGH�

�� +RZ�ZLOO�WKH�QHZ�JHQHUDWLRQ�RI�OHDGHUV�JXLGHG�E\�SUHVLGHQW�;L�-LQSLQJ�UHVSRQG�WR�H[SHFWDWLRQV�RI�DQ�LQFUHDVLQJO\�RSHQ��WUDQVSDUHQW��SOXUDOLVWLF�DQG�LQWHUQDWLRQ�DOO\�SURDFWLYH�&KLQD"

�� +RZ�ZLOO�WKLV�OHDGHUVKLS�DGGUHVV�WKH�LQWHUUHODWHG�VHW�RI�SUHVVLQJ�LVVXHV�WKDW�DUH�high on the agenda of both China and countries around the world such as citizen participation, the fight against corruption, environmental degradation, resource VFDUFLW\�DQG�VRFLDO�UHIRUP"

�� ,I�&KLQD�VWHSV�XS�LWV�GULYH�IRU�UHIRUP�DQG�GHYHORSPHQW��PDLQWDLQV�LWV�FRPPLW�ment to advance the rule of law and strengthens its resolve to build a harmonious VRFLHW\�� FDQ� DQG�ZLOO� GHPRFUDF\�ZLWK�&KLQHVH� FKDUDFWHULVWLFV� HYROYH� RYHU� WKH�QH[W�GHFDGH"

[LL Foreword

�� $V� QDWLRQV� DURXQG� WKH�ZRUOG� VWLOO� WHHWHU� IURP� WKH� JOREDO� HFRQRPLF� DQG� ILQDQ�FLDO� FULVLV�� DQG� FKDOOHQJHV� VXFK� DV� \RXWK� XQHPSOR\PHQW�� WHFKQRORJ\� GULYHQ�change, and social and economic apprehension are spreading even into some of the most advanced economies, how will China deal with the transition from a once rural nation and now manufacturing powerhouse toward a modern learning VRFLHW\�ZKLOH�FRQWLQXLQJ�WR�ILQG�WKH�UHVRXUFHV�QHHGHG�WR�SURYLGH�FRPSUHKHQVLYH�and advanced infrastructure, research and development, education and social VHUYLFHV�WR�VXSSRUW�WKH�OHYHOV�DQG�TXDOLW\�RI�GHYHORSPHQW�QHHGHG�E\�LWV�HQRUPRXV�population?

:KLOH�&KLQD¶V�JOREDO�OHDGHUVKLS�LQ�SRYHUW\�DOOHYLDWLRQ�LV�LQWHUQDWLRQDOO\�DFNQRZO�HGJHG�DV�DUH�LWV�DFKLHYHPHQWV�LQ�DGGUHVVLQJ�WKH�8QLWHG�1DWLRQV¶�0LOOHQQLXP�'HYHO�RSPHQW�*RDOV��WRR�PDQ\�LQ�WKH�:HVW�VWLOO�MXGJH�WKH�Middle Kingdom on the basis of VHQVDWLRQDO�KHDGOLQHV��7RR�IHZ�KDYH�DQ�DGHTXDWH�XQGHUVWDQGLQJ�RI�WKH�FRPSOH[LW\�RI�WKH�FKDOOHQJHV�DQG�RSSRUWXQLWLHV�DQG�WKH�QHHG�WR�DGGUHVV�DOO�HOHPHQWV�RI�WKLV�G\�QDPLF�UHDOLW\�VLPXOWDQHRXVO\��$QG�ZKLOH�DQ�LQFUHDVLQJ�QXPEHU�RI�:HVWHUQHUV�KDYH�misgivings or even fear the rise of the Pacific power, few can point to objective reasons for such feelings.

In this situation, it is essential to strive to build a more pondered picture of one the oldest cultures and nations on earth. With the danger of misunderstandings, re�GXFWLRQLVP�DQG�FRQIURQWDWLRQ�LQFUHDVLQJ�SURSRUWLRQDOO\�WR�&KLQD¶V�ULVH��LW�LV�LPSRU�tant to proceed towards building a mosaic that is more objective and realistic based on insight rather than fear on the one hand and uncritical admiration on the other.

To help build this mosaic, it is most useful to have access to a solid framework WR�H[SORUH�&KLQD�DV�LW�HPEDUNV�QRW�RQO\�RQ�D�FKDQJH�RI�HUD�EXW�RQ�DQ�HUD�RI�FKDQJH�FKDUDFWHUL]HG�E\�UDSLG�HYROXWLRQ��IUDXJKW�ZLWK�D�VHHPLQJO\�LQVXUPRXQWDEOH�DUUD\�RI�problems, dilemmas, and contradictions. In this, it is critical to foster an inclusive dialogue, and positive engagement.

China’s Road Ahead� LV�D�YHU\�YDOXDEOH�UHVRXUFH�IRU�DOO�ZKR�DUH�FRPPLWWHG�WR�VKDUH� LQ� WKH� WDVNV� RI� EXLOGLQJ� WKLV� HVVHQWLDO� PRVDLF�� ,� UHFRPPHQG� LW� ZDUPO\� WR�HYHU\ERG\�LQWHUHVWHG�LQ�WKH�³QHZ´�&KLQD�RI�;L�-LQSLQJ�

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([HFXWLYH�'LUHFWRU�,QWHUQDWLRQDO�RI�WKH�*OREDO�0DQDJHPHQW�(GXFDWLRQ�,QVWLWXWH�RI�6KDQJKDL�8QLYHUVLW\�DQG�RI�WKH�0%$�&HQWHU�RI�6KDQJKDL�8QLYHUVLW\

6HQLRU�$GYLVRU�RI�WKH�8QLWHG�1DWLRQV�Global Compact Program

+RQRUDU\�3URIHVVRU��%HLMLQJ�*HQRPLFV�,QVWLWXWH

&R�HGLWRU�RI�China: The Way Forward��%HLMLQJ�����

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Introduction: China, a Giant in Transition

7KLV�ERRN�SURYLGHV�D�VKRUW�LQWURGXFWRU\�RYHUYLHZ�RYHU�VRPH�RI�FRQWHPSRUDU\�&KL�na’s most pressing questions.

The development of nations consists rather of problems than of achievements. 7KDW¶V�ZK\�WKLV�ERRN�GHDOV�ZLWK�WKH�FKDQJHV�XQGHUZD\�DQG�WKH�FKDOOHQJHV�DKHDG�rather than with the accomplishments of the past.

,QGHHG��WKHUH�LV�EURDG�DJUHHPHQW�DPRQJ�REVHUYHUV�WRGD\�WKDW�&KLQD�LV�D�JLDQW�LQ�transition, if not in crisis. Since the start of the era of the new government under Xi -LQSLQJ��UHIRUPV�WKDW�WU\�WR�DGGUHVV�WKH�PDQ\�XQVROYHG�SUREOHPV�RI�D�QDWLRQ�JURZQ�DOO�WRR�IDVW�DUH�XQGHUZD\�RQ�DOO�OHYHOV�DQG�LQ�HYHU\�ILHOG��SROLWLFV��HFRQRP\��ILQDQFH��GHPRJUDSK\�� UHOLJLRQ�� 7KH� UHODWLRQ� EHWZHHQ� �&RPPXQLVW�� HOLWH� DQG� �&RQIXFLDQ��culture is shifting; and so is the one between the government and the population. 7KH�EDODQFH�EHWZHHQ�PDMRULWLHV�DQG�PLQRULWLHV�LV�EHLQJ�FDXWLRXVO\�UH�FRQVLGHUHG��LQFOXGLQJ� WKH� IXWXUH� RI� WKH� SUHYDLOLQJ�+DQ� FXOWXUH� DQG� LWV� VWDQGLQJ� DPRQJ� RWKHU�ethnicities.

0HDQZKLOH�� WKH�PLOLWDU\�LQGXVWULDO� FRPSOH[� LV� UDSLGO\� H[SDQGLQJ� LWV� LQIOXHQFH�DQG� RXWUHDFK�� WKXV� TXHVWLRQLQJ� WKH� FRQFHSW� RI� ³SHDFHIXO� ULVLQJ´��&KLQD¶V� RIILFLDO�IRUHLJQ�SROLF\�GRFWULQH�IRU�WKH�SDVW�GHFDGHV��WULJJHULQJ�VNHSWLFLVP�DPRQJ�LWV�QHLJK�bors like South Korea, Japan and Taiwan.

7KH�TXHVWLRQ�LV��:LOO�&KLQD�EH�DEOH�WR�PDVWHU�WKH�PDQ\��DQG�LQ�PDQ\�ZD\V�XQ�precedented challenges? Will it succeed to balance the all too rapid development of WKH�SDVW�\HDUV�E\�PDNLQJ�LW�PRUH�VXVWDLQDEOH²QRW�OHDVW�E\�FUHDWLQJ�QHZ�PHFKDQLVPV�of participation? In other words: Will China be able to transit from a “successful VRFLHW\´�WR�D�³UHVLOLHQW�VRFLHW\´"�$QG�ZLOO�WKDW�EH�SRVVLEOH�ZLWKRXW�WKH�EURDGHU�LQFOX�sion of the population and more constructive relations with the adjacent neighbors DQG�WKH�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�ILQDQFLDO�V\VWHP�VWLOO�GRPLQDWHG�E\�WKH�:HVW"

7KH�JHQHUDWLRQDO�SRZHU�WUDQVIHU�EHWZHHQ�1RYHPEHU������DQG�$SULO������IURP�+X�-LQWDR�WR�;L�-LQSLQJ�ZDV�DFFRPSDQLHG�E\�H[SHFWDWLRQV�IRU�D�³JUHDW�GHPRFUDWLF�OHDS�IRUZDUG´�IURP�D�³&KLQD����´� WR�D�³&KLQD����´��0DUN�/HRQDUG���7KHUH�ZHUH�hopes for the start of a new wave of liberalization, including a new, more par�WLFLSDWRU\�UHODWLRQVKLS�EHWZHHQ�WKH�JRYHUQPHQW�DQG�LWV�FLWL]HQV�DQG�EHWZHHQ�&KLQD�DQG�WKH�JOREDO�IDPLO\�RI�GHPRFUDFLHV��%XW�LQ�UHDOLW\��WKH�SRZHU�WUDQVIHU�WRRN�SODFH�DJDLQVW�WKH�EDFNJURXQG�RI�DQ�LQFUHDVLQJO\�SUREOHP�ULGGHQ�GRPHVWLF�VLWXDWLRQ�DQG�D�

[LY Introduction: China, a Giant in Transition

JURZLQJO\�FRQIURQWDWLRQDO�DWWLWXGH�WRZDUGV�WKH�RXWVLGH��$Q�DSSDUHQWO\�RXWVWDQGLQJ�O\�VXFFHVVIXO�JHQHUDWLRQ�RI�³&RPPXQLVW�&DSLWDOLVW´�OHDGHUV��LQ�LWV�ODVW�\HDUV�SODJXHG�E\�VFDQGDOV��WUDQVIHUUHG�UHVSRQVLELOLW\�WR�D�QHZ�JHQHUDWLRQ�FKDUDFWHUL]HG�E\�PL[HG�H[SHFWDWLRQV�DQG�IDFWLRQDO�LQILJKWLQJ��7RGD\��QRW�IHZ�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�REVHUYHUV�GRXEW�WKDW�WKH�QHZ�OHDGHUVKLS�KDV�WKH�ZLOO�RU�WKH�LQQHU�SDUW\�SRZHU�WR�LQWURGXFH�VHULRXV�UHIRUPV� LQ�D�FRXQWU\� WKDW� UHSRUWHG��GHSHQGLQJ�RQ� WKH�VWDWLVWLFDO�PHWKRG��������±��������ULRWV�HDFK�LQYROYLQJ�PRUH�WKDQ�����SHUVRQV�LQ�SXEOLF�VSDFH�LQ������DORQH�

2YHUDOO�VHHQ��WKH�&KLQD�RI�WRGD\�VHHPV�QRW�RQO\�WR�EH�D�FRXQWU\�RQ�WKH�ULVH��EXW�DOVR�D�QDWLRQ�LQ�WKH�PLGVW�RI�D�GRPHVWLF�FKDQJH�VHOGRP�VHHQ�VLQFH�WKH�����V��&KLQD�VWLOO�FXOWLYDWHV�WKH�VHOI�LPDJH�RI�D�&RPPXQLVW�FRXQWU\��EXW�IXQFWLRQV�DQG�EHKDYHV�DV�D�FDSLWDOLVW�VRFLHW\��7KH�TXHVWLRQ�LV�LI�WKH�UHVXOWLQJ�KRSH�H[SUHVVHG�E\�&KLQHVH�GLVVLGHQWV� DQG�:HVWHUQ� OHDGHUV� IRU� D� UDSLG� GHYHORSPHQW� RI� &KLQD¶V� VWLOO� ODUJHO\�DXWRFUDWLF�SROLWLFDO�V\VWHP�WRZDUGV�D�NLQG�RI�FRQWH[W�DGHTXDWH��WKRXJK�SUREDEO\�DW�OHDVW�LQLWLDOO\�LOOLEHUDO�³&RQIXFLDQ´�GHPRFUDF\�LV�SODXVLEOH�RU�QRW��$QG�WKH�VHFRQG�TXHVWLRQ�LV� LI� WRR�UDSLG�D�GHYHORSPHQW� WRZDUGV�GHPRFUDF\�LV�GHVLUDEOH�DW�DOO� LQ�D�FRXQWU\�WKDW�LV�WRR�ELJ�WR�ULVN�LQVWDELOLW\��7R�H[SUHVV�LW�LQ�RWKHU�ZRUGV��6KRXOG�³UDSLG�GHPRFUDWL]DWLRQ´�EH�WKH�VWUDWHJLF�JRDO�RI�&KLQD¶V�OHDGHUV�DQG�RI�WKH�:HVW²RU�UDWKHU�D�VWHS�E\�VWHS�DSSURDFK�WRZDUGV�WKH�³UXOH�RI�ODZ´�ILUVW��DQG�³LOOLEHUDO�GHPRFUDF\´�WR�IROORZ��LQ�RUGHU�WR�WKHQ�SURFHHG�WR�VRPH�NLQG�RI�FXOWXUDOO\�DGHTXDWH�³GHPRFUDWL]D�WLRQ´"�$QG��6KRXOG�WKH�:HVW�EH�PRUH�ZRUULHG�DERXW�D�WKULYLQJ�&KLQD��RU�D�&KLQD�LQ�crisis? Will China’s success contribute to the further peaceful development of the JOREDO�FRPPXQLW\�DQG�WKH�IXWXUH�ZRUOG�RUGHU��RU�ZLOO�LW�EHFRPH�D�WKUHDW�WR�LW"�:KDW�can the West do to help China develop its own pluralistic and inclusive approaches LQ�RUGHU�WR�VHFXUH�ERWK�GRPHVWLF�DQG�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�VWDELOLW\"�$QG�KRZ�FDQ�WKH�:HVW�VWUHQJWKHQ�LWV�GHPRFUDWLF�DOOLHV�RQ�&KLQD¶V�ERUGHUV��ZKLFK�DUH� LQFUHDVLQJO\�EHLQJ�ERWK�VFDUHG�RI�DQG�DWWUDFWHG�E\�WKH�ULVLQJ�QHZ�FHQWHU�RI�JUDYLW\�LQ�WKH�3DFLILF"

0DQ\�TXHVWLRQV�WR�DGGUHVV²ZLWK�WKH�TXHVWLRQV�FXUUHQWO\�PRUH�LPSRUWDQW�WKDQ�WKH�DQVZHUV��,Q�RUGHU�WR�PLUURU�&KLQD¶V�FRPSOH[�VLWXDWLRQ�RI�WUDQVLWLRQ��WKLV�ERRNOHW�DS�plies a simple structure. While Chap. 1 sketches the main motive of China’s change WRGD\��&KDSV����WR���DGGUHVV�PDLQO\�GRPHVWLF�LVVXHV��&KDSWHUV���DQG���GHDO�ZLWK�DVSHFWV�RI�&KLQD¶V�IRUHLJQ�UHODWLRQV�E\�WDNLQJ�RQ�WKH�H[DPSOHV�RI�(XURSH�DQG�6RXWK�.RUHD��&KDSWHU���JLYHV�D�WHQWDWLYH�RXWORRN��&KDSWHUV���DQG���LQYHVWLJDWH�FUXFLDO�LV�VXHV�RI�JRYHUQDQFH�DQG�JRYHUQDELOLW\�EHWZHHQ�LGHDOLVP�DQG�UHDOLVP��DQG�H[SDQG�WKH�TXHVWLRQQDLUH�RQ�WKH�IXWXUH�LQ�FRQYHUVDWLRQV�ZLWK�OHDGLQJ�&KLQD�H[SHUWV�ERWK�IURP�ZLWKLQ�&KLQD��&KDS�����DQG�IURP�WKH�RXWVLGH��&KDS������$OWKRXJK�VRPH�FRQFUHWH�SURSRVDOV�DUH�DGYDQFHG��WKH�JRDO�LV�OHVV�WR�SURYLGH�DQVZHUV�WR�WKH�PDQ\�TXHVWLRQV�UDLVHG��EXW�UDWKHU�WR�VNHWFK�D�SLFWXUH�RI�D�FRPSOH[�VLWXDWLRQ�LQ�UDSLG�PRYHPHQW�

The authors thank Sue Masterman for proofreading this booklet.

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About the Authors and Contributors

Roland Benedikter, Dr. Dr. Dr., is Research Scholar at the Orfalea Center for *OREDO�DQG�,QWHUQDWLRQDO�6WXGLHV�RI�WKH�8QLYHUVLW\�RI�&DOLIRUQLD�DW�6DQWD�%DUEDUD�� )XOO�$FDGHPLF�)HOORZ�RI�WKH�3RWRPDF�,QVWLWXWH�IRU�3ROLF\�6WXGLHV�:DVKLQJWRQ�'&�� 7UXVWHH�RI�WKH�7R\QEHH�3UL]H�)RXQGDWLRQ�%RVWRQ��$IILOLDWH�6FKRODU�RI�WKH�(GPXQG� 3HOOHJULQR�&HQWHU�RI�*HRUJHWRZQ�8QLYHUVLW\��)XOO�PHPEHU�RI�WKH�6FLHQWLILF�&RXQ� FLO�RI�WKH�$XVWULDQ�6RFLHW\�IRU�(XURSHDQ�3ROLWLFV�DQG�)XOO�0HPEHU�RI�WKH�&OXE�RI� 5RPH��3UHYLRXVO\��KH�VHUYHG�DV�(XURSHDQ�)RXQGDWLRQV�5HVHDUFK�3URIHVVRU�RI�3ROLWL�FDO�$QDO\VLV�LQ�UHVLGHQFH�����±���DW�WKH�2UIDOHD�&HQWHU�IRU�*OREDO�DQG�,QWHUQDWLRQDO�6WXGLHV��8QLYHUVLW\�RI�&DOLIRUQLD��6DQWD�%DUEDUD��DQG�DV�/RQJ�WHUP�9LVLWLQJ�6FKRODU�����±���DW�WKH�(XURSH�&HQWHU��6WDQIRUG�8QLYHUVLW\��+H�LV�ZULWLQJ�IRU�)RUHLJQ�$I�IDLUV��7KH�1DWLRQDO�,QWHUHVW��(XURSHDQ�)RUHLJQ�$IIDLUV�5HYLHZ��1HZ�*OREDO�6WXGLHV�DQG�WKH�*HUPDQ�DQG�$XVWULDQ�QHZVSDSHUV�'LH�:HOW�%HUOLQ�DQG�'HU�6WDQGDUG�9LHQQD��+H�LV�FR�DXWKRU�RI�WKH�)HEUXDU\������3HQWDJRQ�DQG�8�6��-RLQW�&KLHIV�RI�6WDII�:KLWH�3DSHU�RQ�WKH�)XWXUH�RI�1HXURWHFKQRORJ\�DQG�1HXURZDUIDUH�(�PDLO��U�EHQHGLNWHU#RUIDOHDFHQWHU�XFVE�HGX��

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Peng Bo, PhD, serves as Associate Professor of Political Science at Shanghai -LDR�7RQJ�8QLYHUVLW\�DQG�VHUYHV�DV�$VVLVWDQW�'HDQ�IRU�,QWHUQDWLRQDO�&ROODERUDWLRQ�DW� -LDR� 7RQJ� 8QLYHUVLW\¶V� 6FKRRO� RI� ,QWHUQDWLRQDO� DQG� 3XEOLF�$IIDLUV�� 3URIHVVRU�Peng’s research and teaching interests include Chinese government and politics, FRPSDUDWLYH� ORFDO� SROLWLFV�� FRPSDUDWLYH� PDQDJHPHQW� DQG� UHIRUP�� SXEOLF� SROLF\��PHWKRGRORJ\� RI� 3ROLWLFDO� 6FLHQFH� DQG� SXEOLF� DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ�� %HIRUH� FRPLQJ� WR�-LDR�7RQJ�8QLYHUVLW\�� 3URIHVVRU�3HQJ�KHOG� DQ�$VVRFLDWH�3URIHVVRU� SRVW� DW� )XGDQ�8QLYHUVLW\�6FKRRO�RI�,QWHUQDWLRQDO�DQG�3XEOLF�$IIDLUV�IRU�VHYHQ�\HDUV��+H�KDV�UHFHQWO\�DOVR�VHUYHG�DV�$GMXQFW�$VVRFLDWH�3URIHVVRU�DW�&ROXPELD�8QLYHUVLW\��3URIHVVRU�3HQJ�

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1

Chapter 1Xi Jinping’s China. The Motive Behind China’s Current Transition: Foreign Success is Changing Domestic Behavior

Roland Benedikter

R. Benedikter, V. Nowotny, China’s Road Ahead, SpringerBriefs in Political Science, DOI 10.1007/978-1-4614-9363-1_1, © The Author(s) 2014

After the generational power transfer of 2012–2013, China is a nation in the midst

of one of its most profound and far-reaching transitions in its recent history. Or as

Orville Schell, author of Wealth and Power: China’s Long March to the Twenty-First Century, stated,

China is at an inflection point. Its economy is too dependent on state investment and exports; official corruption is epic in scale; the gap between rich and poor is widening; environmental problems are horrendous; and ever more Chinese chafe under the sternness of the rulers. Xi seems to realize China needs change. He has spoken out against corruption and injustice, and attacked the excess of officials, warning darkly that such behavior leads to popular anger, social unrest and regime change. He says he wants national rejuvenation.1

In response, the new leadership has started to enact broad reforms. Participatory

programs are currently taking grip on all levels: national, regional, local. These pro-

grams include village elections, gong tui gong xuan (public recommendation and

public election), local and regional participatory budgeting, discussion and consul-

tation forums, as well as attempts towards intra-party democracy and some kind of

cautious and informal “Hongkongization”, which means de facto liberalization and

autonomization for selected urban centers following the examples of other global

cities which are both connected with and disconnected from their mainlands. Not

least, China—“as an experiment,” as the official statement goes—has loosened grip

on Tibet’s exiled leaders. After more than one and a half decades, since summer

2013 it allows the veneration of the Dalai Lama again, if only as a religious, not a

political leader.

As is unavoidable in such situations of reform and transition, there are many con-

tradictions and paradoxes affecting the protagonists and processes. These contradic-

tions drive the current process of change and innovation forward. Some observers

believe that this process must eventually lead to some kind of democratization,

because in the coming years it will be increasingly impossible for the rulers to keep

the masses away from the Internet—and thus international information and com-

parison of the Chinese with other realities. The resulting more global mindset could

1 O. Schell: Too Big to Quail. Xi Jinping takes over a nation beset by challenges and ready for change. Is China’s new leader up to the job? In: Time, April 1, 2013, p. 51.

� 1 Xi Jinping’s China. The Motive Behind China’s Current Transition

VWUHQJWKHQ� WKH� VHOI�FRQILGHQFH�RI� WKH� FLWL]HQVKLS�DQG�H[SDQG� UHTXHVWV� IRU�JUHDWHU�SDUWLFLSDWLRQ�DQG�SOXUDOLVP��7KH�RWKHU�KDOI�RI�H[SHUWV�DUH�VNHSWLFDO�WKRXJK�DQG�GRQ¶W�WKLQN�&KLQD�LV�UHDG\�IRU�D�VXEVWDQWLDO�FKDQJH�RI�WKH�H[LVWLQJ�V\VWHP��QRW�OHDVW�EH�FDXVH�LW�LV�WRR�ELJ�WR�ULVN�VHULRXV�LQVWDELOLW\�

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China’s “Success Trap”. Does the Growing

Exterior–Interior Interdependency Create a New

Sociopolitical Dialectic?

To answer these questions, two crucial aspects are sometimes still underestimated.)LUVW��ZH�FRQVLGHU�WKH�JURZLQJ�LPSDFW�RI�&KLQD¶V�RXWHU�VXFFHVV�VWRU\�XSRQ�LWV�LQ�

ner situation. What we see is that in the meantime there is an enormous interdepen�GHQF\�DPRQJ�H[SRUW��IRUHLJQ�WUDGH�VXUSOXV��DQG�GRPHVWLF�GHYHORSPHQW�HVWDEOLVKHG�LQ�WKH�SDVW�GHFDGH��7KLV�LQWHUUHODWLRQ�LQFUHDVLQJO\�FKDQJHV�WKH�PLQGVHW�RI�&KLQHVH�ZKHQ�LW�FRPHV�WR�SDUWLFLSDWLRQ��GHFLVLRQ�PDNLQJ��DQG�GHPRFUDF\�LQ�JHQHUDO��&RQ�WUDU\�WR�ZKDW�ZDV�WKH�EDVLF�VWUDWHJ\�VLQFH�'HQJ�;LDRSLQJ�VWDUWHG�WKH�RSHQLQJ�RI�WKH�FRXQWU\�WRZDUGV�WKH�RXWVLGH��WR�NHHS�WKH�IRUHLJQ�DQG�WKH�GRPHVWLF�GLPHQVLRQ�VWULFWO\�VHSDUDWHG�IURP�HDFK�RWKHU�DQG�WR�XVH�IRUHLJQ�VXFFHVV�WR�GHYHORS�DW�KRPH��EXW�E\�DV�OLWWOH�DV�SRVVLEOH�JHWWLQJ�WKH�WZR�WUDMHFWRULHV�LQ�GLUHFW�FRQWDFW��&KLQD��PD\EH�IRU�WKH�ILUVW�WLPH�LQ�KLVWRU\��LV�EHFRPLQJ�WUXO\�LQWHUWZLQHG�ZLWK�WKH�RXWHU�ZRUOG�

Under new leader Xi Jinping, this development is reaching a mature stage for the first time. Whereas the Communist elite followed the principle of authoritarianism WRZDUGV� WKH� LQVLGH�� OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ� WRZDUGV� WKH�RXWVLGH�� EXW� ERWK� VWULFWO\� VHSDUDWHG�LQ�RUGHU�QRW� WR�HQGDQJHU� WKH�SRVLWLRQ�RI� WKH�UXOLQJ�SDUW\�DW�KRPH�� WKLV�VWUDWHJ\�LV�EHFRPLQJ�VWHS�E\�VWHS�OHVV�SUDFWLFDEOH��:LWK�JOREDOL]DWLRQ�SURFHHGLQJ�DW�DQ�DOZD\V�faster pace towards a growing interdependence between China and its neighbors as ZHOO�DV�ZLWK�WKH�JOREDO�V\VWHP�VWLOO�ZLGHO\�GRPLQDWHG�E\�WKH�:HVW��D�QHZ�VRFLRSR�OLWLFDO�GLDOHFWLF�QRW�RQO\�DEURDG��EXW�DOVR�ZLWKLQ�WKH�FRXQWU\�LV�EHLQJ�FUHDWHG�

Seen overall, the growing interference between China’s inner and outer dimen�VLRQV�LV�D�SURFHVV�RI�HURVLRQ�RI�LGHRORJ\��,W�KDV�WZR�PDLQ�HIIHFWV��)LUVW��WR�XQGHUPLQH�WKH�EHOLHI�LQ�WKH�³JUDQG�QDUUDWLYH´��RU�³grand récit´��DV�)UHQFK�SROLWLFDO�SKLORVRSKHU�-HDQ�)UDQFRLV�/\RWDUG�SXW� LW��RI�D� WUXO\�VHOI�VXIILFLHQW�&KLQHVH�&RPPXQLVP��GLI�IHUHQW�IURP�DQ\�RWKHU�FRPPXQLVW�RU�VRFLDOLVW�DSSURDFK�RQ�HDUWK��EHFDXVH�DOOHJHGO\�more ‘‘Confucian’’. Second, to enable a renaissance of the cultural core of China DJDLQVW�LGHRORJ\��WRJHWKHU�ZLWK�WKH�VREHU�SUDJPDWLVP�WKDW�DOZD\V�KDV�EHHQ�SDUW�RI�LWV�³PL[HG´�&RQIXFLDQ�SUDJPDWLF�PLQGVHW�

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Xi Jinping: An “Old” Arrangement of Power?

The second aspect that nurtures skepticism about hopes for rapid reform and de�PRFUDWL]DWLRQ�LV�WKH�QHZ�OHDGHU�KLPVHOI��;L��ZKR�FDPH�WR�SRZHU�E\�NHHSLQJ�D�ORZ�LQQHU�SDUW\�SURILOH�DQG�IRVWHULQJ�DQ�DV�PXFK�DV�SRVVLEOH�³QHXWUDO´�VWDQFH�EHWZHHQ�OHIWLVW�DQG�ULJKWLVW�FXUUHQWV�ZLWKLQ�WKH�UXOLQJ�&RPPXQLVW�SDUW\��VHHPV�WR�VHH�KLPVHOI�UDWKHU�DV�DQ�ROG�VW\OH�VWDWHVPDQ�WKDQ�D�SRVW�DXWKRULWDULDQ�OHDGHU��$V�)UDQoRLV�*RGH�PHQW�RI�WKH�(XURSHDQ�&RXQFLO�RQ�)RUHLJQ�5HODWLRQV��(&)5��SXW�LW��LQ�WKH�OHDG�XS�WR�WKH�SRZHU�WUDQVIHU�RI�����±����

>7@KHUH�ZDV�RSHQ�GHEDWH�LQ�&KLQD�DERXW�SROLWLFDO�UHIRUP��DQG�HFRQRPLF�DQG�IRUHLJQ�SROLF\��What do we know now?7KH�ZRUOG¶V�PRVW�SRZHUIXO�PDQ�KDV�UH�HVWDEOLVKHG�WKH�SULPDF\�RI� WKH�&RPPXQLVW�3DUW\�over the Chinese state, and tends towards a personal approach to leadership.�� ;L� KDV� DFFXPXODWHG�PRUH� SRZHU� DQG�PRUH� SHUVRQDO� DXWKRULW\� WKDQ� DQ\� OHDGHU� VLQFH�

0DR�=HGRQJ��+LV�WRS�GRZQ�DSSURDFK�ZLOO�SUREDEO\�OHDYH�OLWWOH�URRP�IRU�PDMRU�SROLWLFDO�reform or economic liberalization; his ‘hardline modernization’ approach seeks instead to combat behavior such as corruption and loose credit.

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$OWKRXJK� WKLV�PD\�EH�SUREDEO\� WRR�VLPSOLI\LQJ�D� VWDWHPHQW��;L�KDV�FHUWDLQO\�not proved to be an enthusiastic reformer, neither in his time as vice president ����±�����QRU�VLQFH�KLV�HOHFWLRQ�WR�SUHVLGHQW�RQ�0DUFK�����������$QG�DOWKRXJK�LQ�his own statements he depicts himself as the moderate and sober administrator of a moderate and neutral China, both his domestic authoritarianism and the increas�LQJO\�H[SDQVLYH�JHVWXUHV�RI�KLV�³&KLQHVH�GUHDP´�FRQWULEXWH�OLWWOH�WR�DVVXUH�KLV�RZQ�SRSXODWLRQ�DQG�WKH�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�FRPPXQLW\�WKDW�&KLQD�LV�RQ�D�³QHZ´�WUDFN�ZLWK�D�JRYHUQPHQW�ZKRVH�DYHUDJH�DJH�LV�KLJKHU�WKDQ�WKDW�RI�WKH�SUHYLRXV�RQH�RI�+X�-LQWDR��

Xi’s most famous statement on China’s new role in the new multipolar world order itself is ambiguous. In answering criticism from the West on China’s new, PRUH�DJJUHVVLYH�EHKDYLRU�LQ�IRUHLJQ�SROLF\�LVVXHV��IRU�H[DPSOH��LQ�WKH�6RXWK�&KLQD�Sea island dispute with Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea, as well as on its XQEURNHQ�LQQHU�VHFUHF\�DQG�RSDTXHQHVV��;L��WKHQ�YLFH�SUHVLGHQW��RQ�DQ�RIILFLDO�YLVLW�LQ������LQ�0H[LFR�IDPRXVO\�VWDWHG�DQJULO\�WR�H[LOH�&KLQHVH��³7KHUH�DUH�VRPH�IRU�HLJQHUV��ZKR�KDYH� WKH� EHOO\� IXOO� DQG�KDYH� QRWKLQJ�EHWWHU� WR� GR�� DV� WR� SRLQW�ZLWK�ILQJHUV�RQ�&KLQD��%XW�&KLQD�ILUVWO\�GRHVQ¶W�H[SRUW�DQ\�UHYROXWLRQ��VHFRQGO\�QHLWKHU�KXQJHU�QRU�SRYHUW\��DQG�GRHVQ¶W�WKLUGO\�FDXVH�DQ\RQH�KHDGDFKH��:KDW�HOVH�GR�WKH\�ZDQW�EH\RQG�WKDW"´�

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1 Xi Jinping’s China. The Motive Behind China’s Current Transition

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In retrospect, Xi’s rise was a sophisticated combination of old authoritarianism and new populism: hard in principles, jovial toward the outside, though uncom�SURPLVLQJ� LQ� OHDGHUVKLS�� FKDUPLQJ�ZKHQ� LW� FRPHV� WR� XVLQJ� KLV�ZLIH¶V� SRSXODULW\�DV� D� WRRO� RI� ³VRIW� SRZHU�´�+LV�ZLIH�3HQJ�/L\XDQ� LV� D� SRSXODU� IRON� VLQJHU�ZKRVH�appeal to the masses provides Xi some welcome glamor without putting its burden and unavoidable disillusions on himself.��3HQJ¶V�³.DWH�0LGGOHWRQ�HIIHFW´7 on the SRSXODWLRQ�LQYLWHV�LGHQWLILFDWLRQ��VLJQDOV�PRGHUQLW\�DQG�LQQRYDWLRQ�ZKLOH�YHLOLQJ�WKH�XQDOWHUHG��ROG�VW\OH�WRS�GRZQ�DSSURDFK�WR�JRYHUQPHQW�RI�KHU�KXVEDQG�

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But the much more important question concerning the future behavior of Xi Jinping LV�WKH�OLQN�EHWZHHQ�GRPHVWLF�DQG�IRUHLJQ�SROLF\�WKDW�ZDV�DOZD\V�WKH�FULWLFDO�FHQWHU�RI�

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fractures within the nation states themselves.17 Again, what is still often underesti�mated is that China’s outer�³VXFFHVV�VWRU\´�LV�RQH�RI�WKH�PDLQ�UHDVRQV�IRU�LWV�inner SUREOHPV��PDNLQJ�LW�ZKDW�LV�LQ�WKH�PHDQWLPH�UHIHUUHG�WR�DV�³&KLQD¶V�VXFFHVV�WUDS�´18 D�QRWLRQ�WKDW�LV�FXUUHQWO\�LQ�WKH�SURFHVV�RI�UHSODFLQJ�WKH�SUHYLRXV�RQH�RI�³&KLQD¶V�PRGHUQL]DWLRQ� WUDS�´�� Although the modernization trap consisted in growing in�HTXDOLW\�DQG�LQVWLWXWLRQDO�IDLOXUH�GXH�WR�DQ�DOO�WRR�UDSLG�SURFHVV�RI�HFRQRPLF�JURZWK�and technological innovation leading to environmental degradation, the success trap that characterizes the era of Xi Jinping consists in the increasing interference be�tween global interconnections and domestic emancipative demands.

,Q�RWKHU�ZRUGV��WKH�ROG�GHYHORSPHQWDO�SULQFLSOH�RI�³7UDGH�WKURXJK�FKDQJH´²RU�JHQHUDWLQJ�ZHOOEHLQJ�WKURXJK�PRGHUQL]DWLRQ²LV�QRZ�EHLQJ�UHSODFHG�E\�³&KDQJH�WKURXJK� WUDGH´�� RU� VRFLDO� XSKHDYDO�� UHTXHVWV� IRU� GHPRFUDF\� DQG�SOXUDOL]DWLRQ�EH�FDXVH�RI� WKH� LQFUHDVLQJ�UROH�RI� WUDQVQDWLRQDO�ZHDOWK�FUHDWLRQ�DQG�FURVV�ERUGHU� LQ�IRUPDWLRQ��7KLV�SURFHVV�FRQVLVWV�LQ�WKH�IDFW�WKDW�WKH�WUDGLWLRQDO�SROLF\�RI�WKH�UXOLQJ�&RPPXQLVW�SDUW\��ZKLFK�GHPDQGV�WKH�VWULFWHVW�SRVVLEOH�GLYLVLRQ�EHWZHHQ�RXWHU�VXF�cess and inner emancipation of selected sections of the population, can no longer EH�XSKHOG�LQ�DQ�HUD�RI�JOREDOL]DWLRQ�RI�D�FRXQWU\�KHDYLO\�UHOLDQW�RQ�H[SRUWV��WUDGH�surplus and global markets. Increasing interference between inner and outer dimen�sions is unavoidable because of China’s economic and financial success, which DIIHFWV�GRPHVWLF�GHPDQGV�IRU�SDUWLFLSDWLRQ��UXOH�RI�ODZ��DQG�GHPRFUDF\��7KH�GLYLGH�EHWZHHQ�&KLQD�DQG�WKH�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�FRPPXQLW\�GHVWLQHG�WR�SURWHFW�WKH�UXOLQJ�HOLWH�DW�KRPH�LV�HPERGLHG�LQ�&KLQD¶V�VWULFW�³QRQ�LQWHUIHUHQFH´�SROLF\�UHSUHVHQWHG�E\�WKH�SKUDVH�WKDW�³&KLQD�GRHVQ¶W�QHHG�DQ\�IULHQGV��EHFDXVH�RI�LWV�VL]H�DQG�FXOWXUDO�KLVWRU\�LW� LV�FDXVH�DQG�HIIHFW� LQ� LWVHOI�´�7KLV�KDV�EHHQ�DW� WKH�FHQWHU�RI�ERWK�GRPHVWLF�DQG�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�&KLQHVH�SROLWLFDO�VWUDWHJ\�IRU�GHFDGHV��,W�LV�GRRPHG�WR�GHFOLQH�LQ�WLPHV�of the Internet, global cultural value assimilation, and the internationalization of wealth production.

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China Today: A Nation Driven by Intensifying

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18

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21

Chapter 2The Cry for Chinese Democratization: Between Idealism and Realism

Roland Benedikter

In this delicate situation, the generational power transfer from president Hu Jin-

tao and premier Wen Jiabao to the new president Xi Jinping and the new premier

Li Keqiang took place between November 2012 and April 2013. It was both pre-

ceded and accompanied by a remarkable upsurge of public protest at home and

abroad over the Chinese government’s undemocratic attitude. This was the case in

particular with regard to:

�� &KLQDµV� GHDOLQJ�ZLWK� LWV� GRPHVWLF� FULWLFV�� GLVVLGHQWV�� LQWHOOHFWXDOV�� FLYLO� ULJKWV�movements, civic groups, and new environmental movements, no longer confi-

ned to the coastal region but throughout the country;1

�� ,WV�DQWLGHPRFUDWLF�SURSDJDQGD�DPRQJ�LWV�GHPRFUDWLF�QHLJKERUV�LQ�RUGHU�WR�FRQ-

vince adjacent countries of a system rapprochement toward the Chinese “one-

party”- and “half-capitalism”-practice in the wake of the Western financial, eco-

nomic, and debt crises, a move brought forward by China’s “New Left”2 in South

Korea, but in different forms also throughout South East Asia;3

�� 6SHFWDFXODU�FDVHV�RI�FHQVRUVKLS�LQYROYLQJ�JOREDO�PHGLD�VXFK�DV�*RRJOH�4

Among the concerns linked to the impact of absent democracy on the develop-

ment of the country was—and is—furthermore the environmental question, which

is without doubt one of the biggest challenges of a country ridden by environ-

1 C. Larson: China’s Emerging Environmental Movement. In: Yale University’s: Yale Environment

360. Opinion, Analysis, Reporting and Debate, 03 June 2008, http://e360.yale.edu/feature/chinas_

emerging_environmental_movement/2018/.2 C. W. Freeman III and W. J. Yuan: China’s New Leftists and the China Model Debate after the

Financial Crisis. A Report of the CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies, Center for Strategic and

International Studies, July 2011, http://csis.org/files/publication/110728_Freeman_ChinaNew-

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This leads us to the following conclusion. In the name of a moderate realism not inclined to offensive maneuvers, would a multistep process be more realistic, al�WKRXJK�FHUWDLQO\�QRWLFHDEO\�VORZHU��WKDQ�D�GLUHFW�DLP�WRZDUGV�GHPRFUDF\�LQ�&KLQD"

In other words, instead of framing the debate in terms of Western liberal democ�UDF\��DQ�HQGHDYRU�FRXOG�EH�PDGH�WR�KHOS�WKH�&KLQHVH�ILUVW�WR�WDFNOH�DQ�HYHQ�PRUH�IXQGDPHQWDO�TXHVWLRQ��KRZ�WR�DFKLHYH��EHIRUH�HYHU\WKLQJ�HOVH�� WKH�UXOH�RI� ODZ�DV�WKH�LQGLVSHQVDEOH�ILUVW�DQG�EDVLF�SUHUHTXLVLWH�RI�OLEHUDOLVP��OHW�DORQH�RI�GHPRFUDF\"

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27

Chapter 3The 2012–2013 Generational Power Transfer and Its Perspectives: The Rule of Law or Democracy?

Roland Benedikter and Verena Nowotny

The great question of whether democracy in China is imminent or, on the contrary, not realistic in this century, is taking grip on the international community of civil society members, experts and analysts, particularly in times when open societies around the globe are in crisis. What do we have to expect from China’s new leaders in a “moderate realistic” view? Can they give new impulses to the global commu-nity by reforming their own country? And what exactly can “reform” be in today’s Chinese framework? Is it democracy, liberalization, or the rule of law?

It could make sense to expect China’s future as a four-level procedure: Firstly expanding the existing “Half-,” “Mixed-,” or “Meta-”Communism by carefully in-tegrating more elements of capitalism, transparency, participation, and liberalism; secondly achieving the rule of law for all regions of the country and for everybody, putting the legal system eventually also above the Communist party; thirdly build-ing a sustainable domestic liberalization process upon it, including the introduction of wide-reaching regional autonomies for ethnic minorities and non-Chinese such as the Tibetans; in order to fourthly possibly proceed to China’s adequate, own form of democracy, which still doesn’t exist. To schedule a decade for every of these four steps could provide a realistic timeframe, if things proceed well and without bigger economic and political ruptures.

Given that this fourfold “step-by-step”-thesis may sound “too pacifying” and even “too realistic”, if not a sign of “post-empire” Western weakness to some, it has to be elucidated through facts which illustrate the situation of the Middle Kingdom through specific cases of present-day lives of its citizens.

Lives in a Changing Society

The trial of Gu Kailai, the wife of an influential Communist bureaucrat, for the alleged murder of a British businessman in July and August 2012 showed (again) that not all under China’s heaven share the same perceptions. Although the offi-cial media hailed the trial as a model of transparency, ordinary Chinese mocked the decision to spare Ms. Gu’s life, saying a commoner would have been swiftly

R. Benedikter, V. Nowotny, China’s Road Ahead, SpringerBriefs in Political Science, DOI 10.1007/978-1-4614-9363-1_3, © The Author(s) 2014

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Conflicting Interests Between Party and Law,

Leading to Paradoxes

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��The Traditional Dilemma of China’s Rulers

The Traditional Dilemma of China’s Rulers: Should

the Government Trust or Not Trust Its People?

:KHUHDV�WKH�SDUDGR[HV�RI�XVLQJ�WKH�UXOH�RI�ODZ�WR�FRQVROLGDWH�WKH�VXSUHPDF\�RI�WKH�UXOLQJ�SDUW\�DQG�WR�NHHS�XS�DQ�DXWKRULWDULDQ�V\VWHP�DUH�RPQLSUHVHQW�WRGD\�PRUH�WKDQ�DW�RWKHU� UHFHQW�KLVWRULFDO�FURVVURDGV�� WKH\�DUH�E\�QR�PHDQV�QHZ��7KURXJKRXW�KLV�WRU\��&KLQD¶V�OHDGHUV�KDYH�EHHQ�KDXQWHG�E\�WKH�IHDU�RI�FKDRV��,Q�WKHLU�YLHZ��PRGHUQ�WLPHV�EHDU�DQ�LQFUHDVLQJ�WKUHDW�WR�VWDELOLW\��2I�WKH���������³PDVV�LQFLGHQWV�´�GHILQHG�RIILFLDOO\�DV�³ULRWV´�E\�WKH�JRYHUQPHQW��DOOHJHGO\�LQYROYLQJ�PRUH�WKDQ����PLOOLRQ�SHRSOH�LQ��������WKH�PRVW�SDUW�ZHUH�QRW�GXH�WR�LGHRORJ\�DQG�GLGQ¶W�LQWHQG�D�V\VWHP�FKDQJH��0RVW�RI�WKHP�ZHUH�VLPSO\�UHTXHVWV�IRU�RSHQ�DQG�SXEOLF�GHEDWH�RQ�SUDFWLFDO�SUREOHPV�DQG�DSSOLHG�GDLO\�SROLF\�LVVXHV�WKDW�WKH�JRYHUQPHQW�FRQVLGHUHG�DV�³ULRW´�RXW�RI�LWV�FODVVLFDO��FHQWXULHV�ROG�IHDU�RI�ORVLQJ�FRQWURO�10

$V� DOZD\V��&KLQD¶V� OHDGHUVKLS� UHDFWHG� WR�ZKDW� LW� SHUFHLYHG� DV� D� WKUHDW� RI� LQ�VWDELOLW\�DQG�FLYLO�XQUHVW�ZLWK�WKH�LQWHQVLILFDWLRQ�RI�WKH�VXUYHLOODQFH�V\VWHP��,W�KDV�QRZ�EHHQ�GHYHORSHG�WR�D�SRLQW�ZKLFK�PD\�SURYRNH�2UZHOOLDQ�QLJKWPDUHV�QRW�RQO\�among Western, but also among Chinese citizens:

�� 7KH�&KLQHVH�JRYHUQPHQW�KDV�GHYHORSHG�D�YDVW�GRPHVWLF�HVSLRQDJH�V\VWHP�IRU�WKH�PDLQWHQDQFH�RI� VRFLDO� VWDELOLW\� ��weiwen��� ,QGHSHQGHQW�&KLQHVH� MRXUQDOLVWV�HVWLPDWH�WKDW�LQ������DORQH��WKH�JRYHUQPHQW¶V�³SXEOLF�VHFXULW\´�VSHQGLQJ�WRWDOHG�����ELOOLRQ�UHQPLQEL�������ELOOLRQ���ZKLFK�ZDV�PRUH�WKDQ�WKH�RIILFLDO�PLOLWDU\�DQG�GHIHQVH�VSHQGLQJ�IRU� WKH�VDPH�SHULRG�� ,Q� IDFW��³SXEOLF�VHFXULW\´�VSHQGLQJ�LQ�&KLQD� LV� LQWHQWLRQDOO\�GLYLGHG�EHWZHHQ�VHYHUDO�PLQLVWULHV�� WKXV�EOXUULQJ� WKH�distinction between spending that is dedicated to the surveillance of the citizens at home and that which serves the defense towards the outside.11

�� 8QGHU�D�V\VWHP�RI�³OHWWHUV�DQG�YLVLWV´���xinfang���&KLQHVH�FLWL]HQV�KDYH�WKH�RSSRU�WXQLW\�WR�YRLFH�WKHLU�FRQFHUQV�RU�WR�DGGUHVV�ZURQJGRLQJ�E\�RIILFLDOV��+RZHYHU��DV�WKH�VXFFHVV�RI�ORFDO�JRYHUQPHQWV�LV�PDLQO\�PHDVXUHG�LQ�WHUPV�RI�VRFLDO�VWDELOLW\�and therefore it is desirous to present the lowest possible number of complaints and petitions, local authorities have developed various tactics for keeping their statistics clean: names of petitioners are not registered at all or wiped off official UHJLVWHUV��SHWLWLRQHUV�DUH�DUUHVWHG�DQG�VHQW�WR�ZRUN�FDPSV�RU�SV\FKLDWULF�KRVSL�WDOV��ORFDO�DXWKRULWLHV�KLUH�SULYDWH�FRPSDQLHV�WR�FDUU\�RXW�VXUYHLOODQFH�RI�RU�DUUHVW�petitioners.��

�� &RPPXQLVW�3DUW\�RIILFLDOV�GHHPHG�WR�KDYH�PLVEHKDYHG�DUH�GHDOW�ZLWK�E\�D�SDUDO�OHO�MXULGLFDO�V\VWHP�FDOOHG�shuanggui��6XFK�RIILFLDOV�DUH�ZKLVNHG�DZD\�E\�GLVFL�SOLQH�HQIRUFHUV�DQG�KHOG�ZLWKRXW�SXEOLF�QRWLFH�DW�GHVLJQDWHG�FHQWHUV��5HQ�-LDQ�PLQJ�RI�7VLQJKXD�8QLYHUVLW\�EHOLHYHV�WKDW�PRVW�RI�WKH��������±��������RIILFLDOV�ZKR�DUH�LQYHVWLJDWHG�HDFK�\HDU�LQ�&KLQD�IRU�³PLVEHKDYLRU´�DUH�GHWDLQHG�XQGHU�

��)��*RGHPHQW��&RQWURO�DW�WKH�*UDVVURRWV��&KLQD¶V�1HZ�7RROER[��ORF��FLW�10 Godement, loc cit.11 Godement, loc cit.���Ibid.

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shuanggui� WHUPV��2I� WKHVH��KRZHYHU��RQO\�D�PLQRULW\�HYHU�JRHV�RQ�WULDO��&KHQ�-LHUHQ��D�ZHOO�NQRZQ�FRPPHQWDWRU�RQ�OHJDO�DIIDLUV�LQ�%HLMLQJ��EHOLHYHV�WKDW������of those who don’t face jail evade it because of corruption within the shuanggui V\VWHP���

Doing China—Justice? Chinese Culture and the Rule

of Law

The quick conclusion one might draw from all this is that as compared to modern Asian societies such as South Korea, Japan, or Taiwan, China is still a nation where SHRSOH�DUH�FRHUFHG�LQWR�VXUUHQGHULQJ�SDUWV�RI�WKHLU�IXQGDPHQWDO�ULJKWV�DQG�DELGH�E\�WKH�UXOH�RI�WKH�RQH�DQG�RQO\�SDUW\��WKH�ODWWHU�RIWHQ�GRPLQDWHG�E\�LQQHU�FLUFOHV�DQG�³IDPLOLHV�´�+RZHYHU�� DOWKRXJK� LQ�PDQ\� DVSHFWV� FRUUHFW�� VXFK� D� GLDJQRVLV�ZRXOG�GLVUHJDUG�&KLQHVH�VSHFLILFV�WKDW�GR�QRW�H[FXVH�PDOSUDFWLFH�EXW�PD\�ILUVW�RI�DOO�KHOS�WR�H[SODLQ�WKH�GHYHORSPHQW�RI�QRQOLEHUDO�OHJDO�QRUPV�LQ�&KLQD�LQ�WHUPV�RI�KLVWRU\�and culture.

As MIT’s Bruce Mazlish has pointed out,&KLQD�LV�D������\HDU�ROG�FLYLOL]DWLRQ�ZKRVH�FRQVWDQW�FRQFHUQ�KDV�EHHQ�XQLW\�RYHU�D�YDVW�FRXQWU\�WKDW�XQWLO�UHFHQWO\�ZDV�EDVHG�RQ�DJULFXOWXUH��,WV�FXOWXUH�KDV�EHHQ�PDUNHG�E\�&RQ�fucianism and related philosophies, with an emphasis on a mandarin class installed in EXUHDXFUDFLHV�DQG�VXSSRVHGO\�VHOIOHVVO\�UXOLQJ�WKH�FRXQWU\��7KH�PLOLWDU\�ZDV�JLYHQ�OLPLWHG�UHVSHFW��$Q�LQWHOOHFWXDO�EXUHDXFUDF\�ZDV�JLYHQ�PRUH�KRQRU��&ODVVLFDO�&KLQHVH�WKRXJKW�VDZ�HYHU\WKLQJ�LQ�WHUPV�RI�KLVWRULFDO�UHODWLRQV��QRW�HVVHQFHV��<LQ�DQG�\DQJ�PD\�EH�YLHZHG�DV�V\PEROL]LQJ�WKLV�DWWLWXGH��0DQ\�VFKRODUV�VHH�WKH�&KLQHVH�DSSURDFK�DV�YHU\�GLIIHUHQW�IURP�*UHHN�WKRXJKW²WKH�RULJLQ�RI�WKH�:HVW²ZLWK�WKH�ODWWHU¶V�GXDOLVP�EHWZHHQ�DSSHDUDQFHV�DQG�UHDOLW\��7KHUH�DSSHDUV�QR�VXFK�GLYLGH�LQ�&KLQHVH�WKRXJKW��$V�RQH�VFKRODU�RI�&KLQD�SXWV�LW��WKH�$VLDQ�ZRUOGYLHZ�VHHV�SDUWV�DOZD\V�LQ�WKH�FRQWH[W�RI�WKH�ZKROH�WKDW�WKH\�IRUP�WRJHWKHU���

$V�D� UHVXOW�� WKH�&KLQHVH�QRWLRQ�RI� LQGLYLGXDOLVP�LV�YHU\�GLIIHUHQW� IURP�WKH�:HVW��Individualism in China is not a value or even an end in itself as in modern democra�FLHV��EXW�UDWKHU�D�UHODWLRQ�EHWZHHQ�D�VLQJOH�SHUVRQ�DQG�WKH�ZKROH�RI�VRFLHW\��EHWZHHQ�a part and the whole. Classical Chinese culture implies that the whole as the effect of interrelations is more important than the part, and thus that the interests of the FROOHFWLYH��EH�WKH\�RQO\�LPDJLQHG�E\�WKH�DXWKRULWLHV�RU�UHDO��FRPH�EHIRUH�WKH�ULJKWV�RI�WKH�LQGLYLGXDO��7KH�³QDWXUDO´�HIIHFW�RI�WKLV�YLHZ�LV�D�ZHDN�QRWLRQ�RI�ZKDW�WKH�UXOH�RI�ODZ�FDQ�DQG�VKRXOG�EH��DQG�D�VWURQJ�VHQVH�RI�FROOHFWLYH�XQLW\�DQG�KDUPRQ\�WKDW�tends to replace the protection of individual rights. Mazlish concludes:

���7KH�(FRQRPLVW��3ROLFLQJ�WKH�3DUW\��,Q��7KH�(FRQRPLVW��6HSWHPEHU������������%��0D]OLVK��3DUWV� DQG�ZKROHV��7KH� VHYHQ�GLPHQVLRQDO� DSSURDFK�RI�5RODQG�%HQHGLNWHU� WR� WKH�DQDO\VLV�RI�JOREDOL]DWLRQ²DQG�LWV�SUHGHFHVVRUV�LQ�WKH�KLVWRU\�RI�WKH�LQWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\�6RFLDO�6FL�HQFHV��$Q�DIILUPDWLYH�UHDGLQJ��,Q��7UDQVFLHQFH��7KH�-RXUQDO�RI�*OREDO�6WXGLHV�RI�+XPEROGW�8QL�YHUVLW\�%HUOLQ��9ROXPH����,VVXH����%HUOLQ�������KWWS���ZZZ�WUDQVFLHQFH�MRXUQDO�RUJ��

��7KH�HIIHFW��3XUVXLQJ�&KDQJH�6XFFHHGV�:KHQ�«� �

Given this situation, there seems to be no parts/wholes problem to be encountered in that YDVW�ODQG��<HW�&KLQD�LV�SOD\LQJ�DQ�HYHU�JUHDWHU�UROH�LQ�RXU�JOREDOL]HG�ZRUOG��ERWK�DFWLQJ�XSRQ�WKH�SURFHVV�DQG�EHLQJ�DFWHG�XSRQ�E\�LW��7KH�IDFW�LV�WKDW�WKH�LQWHJUDWLRQ�RI�&KLQD��LWV�HFRQRP\�DQG�LWV�YDOXHV�LQWR�DQ�LQFUHDVLQJO\�JOREDOL]HG�ZRUOG�LV�RQH�RI�WKH�FHQWUDO�FKDOOHQJHV�RI�RXU�WLPH��6R��WRR��IRU�&KLQD��LV�WKH�HIIHFW�RI�JOREDOL]DWLRQ�XSRQ�LWV�PLOOHQQLD�ROG�FLYLOL]DWLRQ��&DXVH�DQG�HIIHFW��RI�FRXUVH��DUH� LQWHUUHODWHG�DQG�SDUW�RI�DQ�RQ�JRLQJ�G\QDPLF��2U� WR�SXW�LW�LQ�WHUPV�RI�WKH�&KLQHVH�ZRUOGYLHZ��JOREDOL]DWLRQ��OLNH�HYHU\�RWKHU�KXPDQ�SKHQRPHQRQ�must be seen in terms of historical relations. These elements taken together, the Chinese H[DPSOH�LV�VLPSO\�RQH�DPRQJ�PDQ\�RI�WKH�SUREOHPV�IDFLQJ�RXU�WLPH��WKDW�RI�XQGHUVWDQGLQJ�DQG�GHDOLQJ�ZHOO�ZLWK�WKH�FKDOOHQJHV�SRVHG�E\�WKH�HWHUQDO�VHHPLQJ�RSSRVLWLRQ�RI�LQGLYLGXDO�FRPPXQLW\�� GLYHUVLW\�XQLYHUVDOLVP�� IUHHGRP�VWDELOLW\� DQG� VLPLODU� VXSSRVHG� GLFKRWRPLHV�� ,W�LV�KHUH�WKDW�WKH�SDUWV�ZKROHV�GLVFXVVLRQ�EHFRPHV�VR�UHOHYDQW��,Q�VKRUW��WKH�&KLQHVH�LV�D�PLFURFRVPLF�H[DPSOH�RI�WKDW�SUREOHP�ZKLFK�LV�IDFHG�E\�KXPDQLW\�DW�ODUJH���

)RUPHU�86�VHFUHWDU\�RI�VWDWH��1REHO�SHDFH�SUL]H�ODXUHDWH�DQG�ORQJ�WLPH�FRQQRLVVHXU�RI�&KLQD�VLQFH�WKH�����V��+HQU\�.LVVLQJHU��PD\�VHUYH�DV�DQRWKHU�WUXVWHG�DXWKRULW\�WR�H[SODLQ�WKH�IXQGDPHQWDO�FXOWXUDO�GLIIHUHQFHV�WKDW�PDNH�LW�VRPHWLPHV�GLIILFXOW�IRU�Westerners to understand the motivations behind Chinese policies. As Kissinger describes,

LQ�WUDGLWLRQDO�&KLQD��WKH�(PSHURU�KDG�EHHQ�WKH�OLQFKSLQ�RI�WKH�Great Harmony of all living things«�7KLV�LV�ZK\��XQWLO�WKH�PRGHUQ�SHULRG��&KLQD�GLG�QRW�SXUVXH�WKH�LGHDO�RI�µSURJUHVV¶�in the Western sense. The Chinese impetus for public service was the concept of recti�ILFDWLRQ²WKH�EULQJLQJ�RI�RUGHU� WR�D�VRFLHW\�WKDW�KDG�EHHQ�DOORZHG�WR�IDOO� LQWR�GDQJHURXV�imbalance.��

7KLV�ORQJLQJ�IRU�D�KDUPRQLRXV�VRFLHW\�DQG�VRFLDO�VWDELOLW\��HPERGLHG�LQ�MXVW�D�IHZ�SHUVRQV� WKDW�FRQVWLWXWH�D�FOHDU�FHQWHU�RI�FRKHUHQFH�DQG�VWDELOLW\²WKH�DFWLQJ�JRY�HUQPHQW²UHPDLQV�D�FHQWHUSLHFH�RI�&KLQHVH�GRPHVWLF�SROLFLHV��ZHOO�LQ�DFFRUG�ZLWK�traditional Confucian ideals.

The Effect: Pursuing Change Succeeds When Using

“Affiliated” Strategies Rather Than Dissenting

7KH�HIIHFW�LV�WZRIROG��$XWKRULWLHV�DUH�IDVW�LQ�EUDQGLQJ�HYHU\�VLPSOH�UHTXHVW�IRU�SDU�ticipation and discussion as improper behavior, as breaking the law, or even as up�KHDYDO��ZLWK� KDUVK� FRQVHTXHQFHV��(YHQ� WKH� UHTXHVW� WR� DSSO\� WKH� H[LVWLQJ� ODZ�RQ�LQGLYLGXDO�FDVHV�PD\�EH�VHHQ�DV�GH�IDFWR�EUHDNLQJ�LW��2Q�WKH�RWKHU�KDQG��LQWHOOLJHQW�DSSURDFKHV�DEOH�WR�SOD\�ZLWK�WKHVH�FXOWXUDO�SUHUHTXLVLWHV�RIWHQ�DFKLHYH�DVWRXQGLQJ�VXFFHVV�QHYHU�WR�EH�H[SHFWHG�LQ�DQ�DXWKRULWDULDQ�WRS�GRZQ�V\VWHP��2QH�H[DPSOH�LV�WKH�FDVH�RI�&KLQD¶V�IRUHPRVW�HQYLURQPHQWDO�DFWLYLVW��0D�-XQ��+H�LV�RQH�RI�D�QHZ�JHQHUDWLRQ�RI�DFWLYLVWV�ZKR�LQ� WKH�SDVW�\HDUV�KDYH�GHYHORSHG�D�PRUH�UHDOLVWLF�DS�SURDFK�WR�D�ERWWRP�XS�FLYLO�VRFLHW\�IRU�WKH�LPPLQHQW�IXWXUH�QRW�EDVHG�RQ�SURWHVW��EXW�

���B. Mazlish, loc cit.���+��.LVVLQJHU��2Q�&KLQD��3HQJXLQ�3UHVV��1HZ�<RUN������

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affiliated work with official data and cooperation with governmental institutions. As Rana Forohaar reports,

WKH�8�6��ZDQWV�&KLQD�WR�VKLIW�LWV�SROLFLHV�RQ�HYHU\WKLQJ�IURP�F\EHUVHFXULW\�WR�KXPDQ�ULJKWV��%XW�WKH�WUXWK�LV�WKDW�FKDQJH�LV�DOUHDG\�KDSSHQLQJ�LQ�&KLQD²QRW�IURP�WKH�WRS�GRZQ�EXW�IURP�the bottom up.

0D�-XQ��LV��&KLQD¶V�IRUHPRVW�HQYLURQPHQWDO�DFWLYLVW��0D�KDV�DOUHDG\�JRWWHQ�PXOWLQD�WLRQDO�ILUPV�DQG�WKHLU�VXSSOLHUV� WR�HQDFW�ELJ� LPSURYHPHQWV��1RZ�KH�LV� ODXQFKLQJ�D�PRUH�SROLWLFDOO\�FRQWHQWLRXV�FDPSDLJQ�WR�WDNH�RQ�&KLQD¶V�SROOXWLRQ�*ROLDWKV��WKH�FRXQWU\¶V�VWDWH�RZQHG�HQWHUSULVHV��62(V���$QG�KLV�FKDQFHV�RI�VXFFHVV�DUH�JRRG��0D�KDV�GHYHORSHG�D�SOD\�ERRN�IRU�KRZ�WR�EH�D�GLVUXSWHU�LQ�WKH�&KLQHVH�FRQWH[W�E\�FOHYHUO\�FR�RSWLQJ�WKH�FRXQWU\¶V�technocratic tendencies and tapping into the concerns of its growing middle class.

%DFN�LQ�������0D�IRXQGHG�WKH�QRQSURILW�,QVWLWXWH�RI�3XEOLF��(QYLURQPHQWDO�$IIDLUV�ZLWK�WKH�DLP�RI�FOHDQLQJ�XS�WKH�DLU�DQG�ZDWHU�RI�D�FRXQWU\�WKDW¶V�UHVSRQVLEOH�IRU������RI�JOREDO� FDUERQ� HPLVVLRQV�� &KLQD� KDG� SHQDOWLHV� IRU� SROOXWHUV�� EXW� DV�0D� VD\V�� FRPSDQLHV�IRXQG�LW�µHDVLHU�DQG�FKHDSHU�WR�VLPSO\�SD\�ILQHV�IRU�SROOXWLQJ�WKDQ�WR�FOHDQ�XS�WKHLU�DFWV�¶

:RUNLQJ�ZLWK� WZR� VWDIIHUV� �KH�QRZ�KDV����� LQ� D� WLQ\�%HLMLQJ�RIILFH� VXLWH��0D� IRXQG�D�FUHDWLYH�ZD\� IRUZDUG��5DWKHU� WKDQ�RYHUWO\�SUHVVXULQJ� WKH�JRYHUQPHQW²D�VWUDWHJ\� WKDW�UDUHO\�VXFFHHGV�LQ�&KLQD²KH�HPEUDFHG�WKH�JRYHUQPHQW¶V�GDWD�DV�D�WRRO��0D�FXW�D�GHDO�WR�SXW�&KLQD¶V�UHFRUGV�DERXW�SROOXWLRQ�E\�:HVWHUQ�ILUPV�DQG�WKHLU�VXSSOLHUV�RQOLQH��WKHQ�XVHG�WKDW� LQIRUPDWLRQ�WR�TXLHWO\�SUHVVXUH�WKH�FRPSDQLHV��7KH�UHVXOWV�KDYH�EHHQ�UHPDUNDEOH��$������UHSRUW�RQ�$SSOH�� IRU� LQVWDQFH�� UHVXOWHG� LQ�D�PDMRU�HIIRUW� WR�FOHDQ�XS�HQYLURQPHQWDO�YLRODWLRQV�LQ�WKH�FRPSDQ\¶V�VXSSO\�FKDLQ�17

,QWHUHVWLQJO\��0D�DQG�RWKHUV�DUH�XVLQJ�FRQFUHWH�DQG�SUDFWLFDO�TXHVWLRQV�WKDW�DUH�RI�FUXFLDO�DQG�H[SOLFLW� LQWHUHVW�WR�ODUJHU�SDUWV�RI�WKH�SRSXODWLRQ�DV�LQH[SOLFLW� WRROV�WR�FKDQJH�WKH�V\VWHP�DV�D�ZKROH��,Q�WKLV�UHJDUG��WKH\�LQ�PDQ\�ZD\V�IROORZ�WKH�WHDFK�LQJV�RI�IRUPHU�&RPPXQLVW�GLVVLGHQWV�LQ�WKH�:HVW��LQ�SDUWLFXODU�D�VWUDWHJ\�WKDW�WKH�GLUHFWRU�RI�WKH�%LUNEHFN�,QVWLWXWH�IRU�WKH�+XPDQLWLHV��6ODYRLM�=L]HN��FDOOHG�³SROLWLFDO�VXEMHFWLYDWLRQ�´�,W�FRQVLVWV�LQ�SXUVXLQJ�D�VHHPLQJO\�VPDOO�DQG�SUHFLVH�WRSLF�ZLWKLQ�DQG�LQ�DFFRUGDQFH�ZLWK�WKH�V\VWHP��ZLWKRXW�RSHQO\�WKHRUL]LQJ�RQ�LW��ZLWKRXW�LGHRO�RJ\��DQG�ZLWKRXW�WRR�PXFK�QRLVH��EXW�E\�VHWWLQJ�D�SUHFHGHQW�DQG�WKXV�PRGLI\LQJ�WKH�V\VWHP�LWVHOI�ZLWKRXW�FKDOOHQJLQJ�LW�WR�ILJKW�LQ�RUGHU�WR�GHIHQG�LWVHOI�18�7KDW¶V�H[DFWO\�what Ma and those like him do, as Forohaar summarizes:

0D�KRSHV�IRU�HYHQ�PRUH�LPSDFW�ZLWK�KLV�QHZ�DFWLRQ�DJDLQVW�WKH�KXJH�SRZHU�DQG�HQHUJ\�FRPSDQLHV�WKDW�DUH�UHVSRQVLEOH�IRU�WKH�OLRQ¶V�VKDUH�RI�&KLQD¶V�SROOXWLRQ��%HFDXVH�WKH\�DUH�ODUJHO\�RZQHG�E\�WKH�&RPPXQLVW�3DUW\�DQG�IXQGHG�E\�VWDWH�RZQHG�EDQNV��WKH\¶YH�WUDGLWLR�QDOO\�EHHQ�RII�OLPLWV�IRU�FULWLFLVP��%XW�EXR\HG�E\�KLV�ZLQV�ZLWK�:HVWHUQ�FRUSRUDWH�JLDQWV��0D�UHFHQWO\�DQQRXQFHG�SODQV�WR�FRPSLOH�D�VLPLODU�GDWDEDVH�RQ�WKHVH�62(V��µ,W¶V�D�PXFK�PRUH�GHOLFDWH�LVVXH�¶�KH�VD\V�ZLWK�D�VRPHZKDW�QHUYRXV�VPLOH���«��µ:H�ZDQW�PRUH�WUDQVSD�UHQF\�DQG�WR�JLYH�SHRSOH�PRUH�SDUWLFLSDWLRQ�LQ�WKH�V\VWHP�¶�KH�VD\V�

That, of course, sounds like change of a democratic sort. ‘We want to use the environment WR�VKLIW�WKH�ZD\�RXU�VRFLHW\�ZRUNV�¶�VD\V�0D��7KHUH¶V�DOUHDG\�EHHQ�PRYHPHQW��,Q�0DUFK��0D�got a group of large Chinese companies to support his efforts to make environmental data SXEOLF��6RPH�ELJ�62(V��OLNH�6LQRSHF��DUH�VWDUWLQJ�WR�UHOHDVH�FRUSRUDWH�VRFLDO�UHVSRQVLELOLW\�UHSRUWV��µ,W¶V�OLNH�DFXSXQFWXUH�¶�0D�VD\V��µ<RX�SUHVV�RQH�VSRW�DQG�VHH�WKH�UHVXOWV�HOVHZKHUH�¶�

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The State of China’s Rule of Law Today

6R�LV�³DFXSXQFWXUH�DFWLYLVP´�IURP�EHORZ��WKH�PRVW�LQWHOOLJHQW�ZD\�WRZDUGV�D�PRUH�OLEHUDO�&KLQD"�&DQ�LW�VORZO\�DQG�VLOHQWO\�SHUPHDWH�WKH�ROG�VWUXFWXUH�DQG�KHOS�WR�LP�pose the rule of law also upon those who were immune to it? Or does China need D�FOHDU�FXW�DQG�XQPLVWDNDEOH�FRXUVH�FRUUHFWLRQ�IURP�DERYH��WKDW�LV��IURP�WKH�QHZ�government to impose the rule of law once and for all here and now on the broadest possible scale?

7KH�FKDQFH�IRU�³GRLQJ�LW��LPSOHPHQWLQJ�WKH�UXOH�RI�ODZ��IURP�DERYH´�ZDV�JLYHQ�with the start of Xi Jinping’s new government. But not much was undertaken, be�FDXVH�LW�ZDV�QHYHU�DV�HDV\�DV�WKDW��,Q�IDFW��WKHUH�DUH�PDQ\�HOHPHQWV�WR�FRQVLGHU�ZKHQ�LW�FRPHV�WR�WKH�REVWDFOHV��,W�LV�QRW�ORQJ�DJR²DQG�WKXV�VWLOO�SUHVHQW�LQ�WKH�PHPRU\�RI�WKH�HOLWHV²WKDW�0DR�=HGRQJ�DOPRVW�HUDGLFDWHG�VRFLDO�FRKHUHQFH�DQG�DQ\�IXQFWLRQ�LQJ� ODZ�V\VWHP��HVSHFLDOO\�GXULQJ� WKH�\HDUV�RI� WKH�VR�FDOOHG�&XOWXUDO�5HYROXWLRQ��With regard to a starting point for serious legal reform in China now requested E\�PDQ\��ZH�KDYH�WR�EH�DZDUH�WKDW�DV�ODWH�DV�LQ�������&KLQD�KDG�IHZHU�WKDQ�������ODZ\HUV�DQG�MXVW�WZR�IXQFWLRQLQJ�ODZ�VFKRROV��8QWLO�WKH�VWDUW�RI�WKH�QHZ�PLOOHQQLXP��PDQ\�MXGJHV�ZHUH�GUDZQ�IURP�WKH�UDQNV�RI�WKH�UHWLUHG�PLOLWDU\���

7KH�H[SOLFLW�JRDO�RI�³EXLOGLQJ�D�VRFLDOLVW�UXOH�RI�ODZ�QDWLRQ´�ZDV�DGGHG�WR�WKH�&KLQHVH�FRQVWLWXWLRQ�DV�ODWH�DV�LQ�������WKDW� LV��ZHOO� LQWR�WKH�SRVW�%HUOLQ�ZDOO�HUD�DQG�WKH�HDUO\�JOREDOL]DWLRQ�ERRP�\HDUV��6LQFH�WKHQ��&KLQD�KDV�HQDFWHG�DQG�DPHQGHG�PRUH�WKDQ�����ODZV�WKDW�DUH�LQ�JHQHUDO�FRQVLVWHQW�ZLWK�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�VWDQGDUGV�DQG�OHJDO�SULQFLSOHV��&KLQD¶V�HFRQRPLF�DQG�ILQDQFLDO�ULVH�WKDW�³QDWXUDOO\´�LQFUHDVHG�WKH�LQWHUQDWLRQDO� LQWHUFRQQHFWLRQ�RI� LWV� ODZV� IXUWKHU� WULJJHUHG� DQ� DYDODQFKH�RI� QHZO\�ZULWWHQ�ODZV�LQ�D�YDVW�DUUD\�RI�DUHDV�FRYHULQJ�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�HFRQRPLF�UHODWLRQV�LQ�SDUWLFXODU��&KLQD¶V�DFFHVVLRQ�WR�WKH�:RUOG�7UDGH�2UJDQL]DWLRQ�LQ�1RYHPEHU������has further required the implementation of numerous changes in the Communist OHJDO�V\VWHP����0LOHVWRQHV�WRZDUGV�D�PRUH�SDUWLFLSDWRU\�OHJDO�IUDPHZRUN�ZHUH�

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�� 6LQFH�������PRUH�WKDQ�������JRYHUQPHQW�VSRQVRUHG�³OHJDO�DLG�FOLQLFV´�KDYH�EHHQ�HVWDEOLVKHG�WR�DVVLVW�ORZ�LQFRPH�FLWL]HQV�ZLWK�FDVHV�LQYROYLQJ�HPSOR\PHQW��GLV�FULPLQDWLRQ��IDPLO\�GLVSXWHV��XUEDQ�UHORFDWLRQV��DQG�UXUDO�ODQG�H[SURSULDWLRQV��� Most of them have achieved noticeable acceptance among the population, how�HYHU��WKH�DUELWUDU\�XVH�RI�WKH�UXOH�RI�ODZ�KLQGHUV�WKHLU�HIILFLHQF\�LQ�GLVSXWHG�RU�SROLWLFDOO\�UHOHYDQW�FDVHV��FRQGHPQLQJ�WKHP�WR�VHFRQG�KDQG�LQVWLWXWLRQV�RI�SRRU�overall impact.

�� 2Q� -DQXDU\���� ������ WKH� UHYLVHG�&ULPLQDO�3URFHGXUH�/DZ� �&3/�� HQWHUHG� LQWR�IRUFH��IRU�WKH�ILUVW�WLPH�DIWHU�DQ�H[WHQVLYH�FRQVXOWDWLYH�SURFHVV�DPRQJ�WKH�JRYHUQ�PHQW��WKH�HOLWH��DQG�H[SHUWV��$OWKRXJK�SDUWV�RI�WKH�ODZ�UHPDLQ�FRQWURYHUVLDO��WKH�WRQDOLW\�KDV�FKDQJHG�LQ�VXFK�D�ZD\�WKDW�WKH�ODZ�LV�QRZ�GHVFULEHG�DV�JXDUDQWHHLQJ�LQGLYLGXDOV¶�³IXQGDPHQWDO� IUHHGRPV�´� WKXV�PDNLQJ� LW� LQ� WKH�YLHZ�RI�GLVVLGHQWV�DQG�LQWHOOHFWXDOV�D�SRWHQWLDO�³PLQL�FRQVWLWXWLRQ�´�� Although the implementation of this law will be clear progress towards a more objective rule of law, its ap�SOLFDWLRQ�DQG�LPSRUWDQFH�LQ�SUDFWLFH�UHPDLQV�XQFOHDU�DQG�LQ�DQ\�FDVH�RSHQ�WR�D�YDVW�YDULHW\�RI�RSWLRQV��LQ�WKH�ODVW�LQVWDQFH�DJDLQ�GHSHQGLQJ�RQ�WKH�ZLOO�DQG�WKH�LQFOLQDWLRQV�RI�WKH�UXOLQJ�SDUW\�

Obstacles to Legal Reform in China—Domestic

and from Abroad

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���-��3��+RUVHO\��ORF�FLW����+��:LQFNOHU��7KH�FRQWURYHUV\�RYHU�VHFUHW�GHWHQWLRQ��,Q��(XURSHDQ�&RXQFLO�RQ�)RUHLJQ�5HODWLRQV��(&)5��/RQGRQ��%HUOLQ��3DULV�DQG�%UX[HOOHV�3ROLF\�5HSRUW�3XEOLFDWLRQ�6HULHV��&KLQD�$QDO\VLV��HGLWHG�E\�7KH�$VLD�&HQWUH��FHQWUHDVLD�HX�3DULV��-XQH������

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&KLQD¶V�RXWJRLQJ�OHDGHUVKLS�LQ�)DOO������RSHQO\�DFNQRZOHGJHG�WKDW�³WKH�OHJDO�FRQ�VWUXFWLRQ�LV�VWLOO�IDFLQJ�VRPH�SUREOHPV�´�� among them, that “the development of GHPRFUDF\�DQG�WKH�UXOH�RI�ODZ�VWLOO�IDOO�VKRUW�RI�WKH�QHHGV�RI�HFRQRPLF�DQG�VRFLDO�GHYHORSPHQW�´���,Q�RUGHU�WR�IXUWKHU�GHYHORS�WKH�OHJDO�V\VWHP��WKH�&KLQHVH�JRYHUQ�PHQW�LQ������VWDWHG�H[SOLFLWO\�WKDW�LW�ZDQWHG�WR�³GUDZ�RQ�YDOXDEOH�IRUHLJQ�H[SHUL�ence for reference while basing our efforts on China’s actual conditions without FRS\LQJ�LQGLVFULPLQDWHO\�RWKHU�FRXQWULHV¶�OHJDO�V\VWHPV�RU�SROLWLFDO�PHFKDQLVPV�´��

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To those who want to engage in China’s legal reform process Gerwitz recom�PHQGV� WKDW�³WKH�EDVLF�JRDOV�RI� IRUHLJQ�HIIRUWV� VKRXOG�EH� WR� LQFUHDVH� WKH�FDSDFLW\�RI�UHIRUP�RULHQWHG�LQGLYLGXDOV�LQ�&KLQD�WR�EH�HIIHFWLYH�LQ�WKHLU�RZQ�ZRUN�´�� thus DFWXDOO\�PLUURULQJ��DW�OHDVW�LQ�ZRUGV��WKH�DWWLWXGH�SXW�IRUZDUG�LQ�&KLQD¶V�RZQ������

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White Paper. Randall Peerenboom, author of the book China’s Long March toward Rule of Law,���VLQJV�IURP�WKH�VDPH�K\PQ�VKHHW�ZKHQ�KH�VWDWHV��³,QVWLWXWLRQV�DQG�SUDFWLFHV�WKDW�PD\�ZRUN�LQ�RQH�FRQWH[W�PD\�QRW�ZRUN�LQ�&KLQD�JLYHQ�LWV�SDUWLFXODU�FLUFXPVWDQFHV�´���3HHUHQERRP� IXUWKHU� FODLPV� WKDW� ³EXLOGLQJ�D� OHJDO� V\VWHP� WDNHV�WLPH��&UHDWLQJ�D�FXOWXUH�RI�OHJDOLW\�WDNHV�HYHQ�ORQJHU�´��

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China’s Future: Outer Expansion May Be Obstructed

by Growing Domestic Splits

If what the sum of the facts suggests about China’s situation is plausible, China LV�LQ�D�SKDVH�RI�XQSUHFHGHQWHG�GRPHVWLF�WUDQVLWLRQ�WKDW�LURQLFDOO\�DFFRPSDQLHV�LWV�VHHPLQJO\�LQH[RUDEOH�RXWHU�H[SDQVLRQ��2QH�FRQVHTXHQFH�IRU�WKH�:HVW�WR�OHDUQ�LV�WKDW�WKH�&KLQHVH�VRFLDO�RUGHU�LV�SUHVHQWO\�LQ�WKH�PLGVW�RI�FKDQJH�DQG�FULVLV��EXW�DOO�RWKHU�JOREDO�RUGHUV�DUH�WRR��(XURSH�LV�HPEURLOHG�LQ�LWV�PXOWL�\HDU�FULVLV��DQG�LGHRORJLFDOO\�SRODUL]HG�$PHULFD�LV�LQ�D�FULVLV�RI�SROLWLFDO�SDUDO\VLV��QRW�WR�PHQWLRQ�/DWLQ�$PHULFD��WKH�0LGGOH�(DVW��RU�$IULFD��,Q�WKH�HQG��WKH�ZKROH�ZRUOG�LV�LQ�WKH�PLGVW�RI�D�IXQGD�PHQWDO�FKDQJH�GXH�PDLQO\�WR�WKH�HQG�RI�WKH�ILUVW�SKDVH�RI�JOREDOL]DWLRQ�WKDW�OHG�WR�³VDWXUDWHG´�LQWHUUHODWLRQ��DQG�GXH�WR�WKH�UHJLRQDO�DQG�DUHD�VSHFLILF�FRXQWHU�UHDFWLRQV�against and modes of adaptation to it.��

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It can be seen overall that China at the start of the Xi Jinping era finds itself sud�GHQO\�LQ�LWV�³SRVW�XQLW\´�HUD��LQ�ZKLFK�ULIWV�EHWZHHQ�SDUW\�DQG�SHRSOH��XUEDQ�DUHDV�DQG�WKH�FRXQWU\VLGH��KHDUWODQGV�DQG�FRDVWOLQHV��PLGGOH�FODVV�DQG�ZRUNLQJ�FODVV��QHZ�OHIWLVWV� DQG�QHZ�PRGHUDWHV�DUH�³QDWXUDOO\´�HYROYLQJ� WR�GHEDWH�DQG�FRQIURQWDWLRQ��&RPSHWLWLRQ�EHWZHHQ�SDUW\� DQG� WKH�PLOLWDU\±LQGXVWULDO� FRPSOH[�KDV� VWDUWHG� RQ� D�EURDG�IURQW��ZLWK�WKH�PLOLWDU\�SUHVVXULQJ�WKH�JRYHUQPHQW�WRZDUGV�PRUH�H[SDQVLYH�attitudes. ���7DNHQ�WRJHWKHU��WKH�&KLQHVH�PRGHO�RI�³KDOI�FRPPXQLVW´�GRPHVWLF�SDFL�ILFDWLRQ�WKDW�GRPLQDWHG�WKH�SDVW�\HDUV�WKURXJK�D�PL[WXUH�RI�H[SOLFLW�DXWKRULW\�DQG�QRQH[SOLFLW�&RQIXFLDQ�³PRUDO´�UHJXODWLRQ�VHHPV�WR�EH�TXHVWLRQHG�LQ�LWV�YHU\�IXQGD�ments.

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“Democracy Straight”—Or a “Build-up Approach”

Within a Context-Oriented Realism?

5HJDUGOHVV�RI�RIILFLDO�SURSDJDQGD�DQG�LQWHUHVW�GULYHQ��RIWHQ�VXSHUILFLDO�SXEOLF�LP�DJH�FXOWLYDWLRQ��SDUWO\�DOVR�SXUVXHG�E\�HFRQRPLF�LQWHUHVWV�LQ�WKH�:HVW��WKH�&KLQHVH�GHPRFUDWL]DWLRQ� LVVXH� LV�SDUWLFXODUO\� UHOHYDQW�ZLWK� UHJDUG� WR�D�FRRSHUDWLYH� IXWXUH�EHWZHHQ�WKH�*����,QDVPXFK�DV�ERWK�&KLQD�DQG�WKH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV�IHDWXUH�GRPHVWLF�SUREOHPV��LQ�WKH�FRPLQJ�\HDUV�WKH\�FRXOG�WHQG�LQVWLQFWLYHO\�WRZDUGV�D�PRUH�DJJUHV�sive behavior on the international stage in order to prove strength, resolution, and VHOI�DVVHUWLRQ��7KH�ROG�PD[LP�WKDW�VRFLHWLHV�LQ�LQQHU�FULVLV�VHHN�RXWHU�FRQIOLFW�LQ�RU�GHU�WR�LQVWLOO�XQLW\�LQWR�WKHLU�GRPHVWLF�FRQVWHOODWLRQ�FRXOG�RQFH�DJDLQ�SURYH�DSSOLFD�EOH�KHUH��'ULYHQ�E\�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�WUHQGV�VXFK�DV�WKH�GLVVROXWLRQ�RI�ODUJH�QDWLRQ�VWDWHV�in favor of smaller units, the resulting multiplication of nonintegrated nation states, the rise of ethnonationalisms, the fracturing of traditional societal arrangements DQG�VROLGDULW\��LQFUHDVH�LQ�VRFLDO�FRPSOH[LW\��WHFKQRORJLFDO�GHOLPLWDWLRQ��JURZWK�LQ�WUDQVQDWLRQDO�FRPSHWLWLRQ��DQG�&DOLIRUQLFDWLRQ��L�H��� WKH�JOREDO�VSUHDG�RI�D�PL[�RI�LQGLYLGXDOLVP��SRVWPDWHULDOLVP��DQG�WHFKQRORJ\��WKH�TXHVWLRQ�LV��ZKDW�NLQG�RI�SURJ�UHVV�PD\�UHDOLVWLFDOO\�EH�H[SHFWHG�IURP�D�&KLQD�LQIOXHQFHG�E\�WKHVH�GULYLQJ�IRUFHV�

In answering this question, sideline issues could somehow assume a greater im�SRUWDQFH�WKDQ�WKH�XVXDO�SROLWLFDOO\�FRUUHFW�DSSHDO�IRU�VWUDLJKW�GHPRFUDF\��,PSXOVHV�IURP�VXFK�LVVXHV�FXUUHQWO\�FRPH�IURP�YDULRXV�GLUHFWLRQV��7KHUH�FDQ�EH�LGHQWLILHG�DW�least four of them:

1. The “resilient society´ debate that is now starting to take hold in sectors of Chi�na’s intellectuals, bringing to the fore a broader concept of progress and inte�JUDWLRQ� WKDQ� WKH� SUHYLRXV� VXVWDLQDELOLW\� DQG� OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ� GHEDWHV� WKDW�ZLGHO\�dominated the democratization issue.�� If the relevant debate doesn’t remain limi�WHG�WR�WHFKQRORJ\��SURWHFWLRQ��DQG�HIILFLHQF\�LVVXHV��EXW�LQFOXGHV�VRFLDO�DVSHFWV�of resilience, an impact on the sociopolitical sphere is possible. The question is LI�WKH²FUXFLDO²LQWHUUHODWLRQ�EHWZHHQ�ULVN�PLQLPL]DWLRQ�DQG�VRFLDO�SURJUHVV�FDQ�EH�VXVWDLQHG�E\�WKH�JRYHUQPHQW��RU�LI�LW�ZLOO�EH�QHJDWLYHO\�LQIOXHQFHG�E\�FHQVRUV�hip and the return of authoritarianism.

���)��)XNX\DPD��$PHULFDQ�SROLWLFDO�G\VIXQFWLRQ��,Q��7KH�$PHULFDQ�,QWHUHVW��1RYHPEHU�'HFHPEHU�������KWWS���ZZZ�WKH�DPHULFDQ�LQWHUHVW�FRP�DUWLFOH�FIP"SLHFH ��������1��%DNVKL��7KH�UHVLOLHQW�VRFLHW\��,Q��7KH�/RQGRQ�6FKRRO�RI�(FRQRPLFV�%XVLQHVV�6WUDWHJ\�5H�YLHZ�������LVVXH��KWWS���EVU�ORQGRQ�HGX�OEV�DUWLFOH�����LQGH[�KWPO��&I��IURP�D�GLIIHUHQW�DQJOH�$��5��(GZDUGV��7KULYLQJ�EH\RQG�6XVWDLQDELOLW\��3DWKZD\V�WR�D�5HVLOLHQW�6RFLHW\��1HZ�6RFLHW\�3XEOLVKHUV�������DQG�)RXQGDWLRQ�IRU�5HVLOLHQW�6RFLHWLHV��KWWS���ZZZ�UHVLOLHQWVRFLHWLHV�RUJ��

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��� The further development of the “meta´-communist approach brought forward RYHU�WKH�ODVW�IHZ�\HDUV�E\�PRGHUDWHV�LQ�&KLQD�DQG�DEURDG�����7KH�SDWK�WR�³PHWD´�Communism could consist of further strengthening liberal and capitalistic tra�MHFWRULHV� LQ� RUGHU� WR� GHYHORS� WKH� FXUUHQW� ³VHPL´�&RPPXQLVW� SUDFWLFH� LQWR� DQ�DSSURDFK�EH\RQG�ERWK��WKDW�LV��&RPPXQLVW�DQG�OLEHUDO��7KH�SUHVHQW�SROLWLFDO�UHD�OLW\�RI�&KLQD�LV�VWLOO�VWURQJO\�VKDSHG�E\�&RPPXQLVW�LGHRORJLHV��DOWKRXJK�ZKHQ�H[DPLQHG�FORVHO\�WKH\�DUH�YDULHG�DQG�LQ�PDQ\�ZD\V�RSHQO\�FRQIOLFWLQJ�ZLWKLQ�GLIIHUHQW� LQQHU� FXUUHQWV��� KRZHYHU�� ³PHWD´�&RPPXQLVP� FRXOG� EH� D� WUDMHFWRU\�WKDW�WR�VRPH�H[WHQW�FRXOG�QDWXUDOO\�PLUURU�WKH�JURZLQJ�GHSHQGHQF\�RI�&KLQD�RQ�international financial and capital networks and its intermingling with internatio�nal trade. That could loosen the influence of classical Chinese Communism and KHOS�OLEHUDOLVP�LQ�JHWWLQJ�D�JULS�RQ�EURDGHU�VRFLHW\�LVVXHV�

��� The new “special relationship´ between the two “winner-nations” of recent times, China and its European counterpart Germany.���7KHUH� DUH�PDQ\�ZKR�VLQFH�WKH�JHQHUDWLRQDO�SRZHU�WUDQVIHU�WR�;L�-LQSLQJ�DVVHUW�WKDW�³(XURSH¶V�IXWXUH�UHODWLRQVKLS�ZLWK�&KLQD�ZLOO�EH�GHWHUPLQHG�E\�*HUPDQ\¶V�UDSLGO\�HYROYLQJ�ELOD�WHUDO�UHODWLRQVKLS�ZLWK�&KLQD��&KLQHVH�OHDGHUV�SHUFHLYH�$QJHOD�0HUNHO�DV��)UDX�(XURSH��DQG�DUH�UHDG\�WR�OLVWHQ�WR�KHU�ZKHQ�LW�FRPHV�WR�WUDGH��WKH�HXUR�FULVLV�DQG�KXPDQ�ULJKWV��7KH�UHVW�RI�(XURSH�ULVNV�EHLQJ�VLGHOLQHG�´��,QGHHG��DOWKRXJK�*HUPDQ\�VHHPV�WR�EH�ULVLQJ�WR�(XURSH¶V�XQGLVSXWHG�OHDG�SRZHU�ZLWKRXW�ZKLFK�QHLWKHU�WKH�HXUR�QRU�(XURSH¶V�XQLW\�FDQ�EH�SUHVHUYHG�RU�PDQDJHG��China seems to be ascending to become the undisputed lead power in Asia and LQ�WKH�(DVWHUQ�3DFLILF��*HUPDQ\�QHHGV�&KLQD�DV�D�FUXFLDO�PDUNHW�IRU�H[SRUW��DV�VXEVWLWXWH�IRU�GHPDQG�LQ�WKH�GHFOLQLQJ�VRXWKHUQ�FRXQWULHV�RI�WKH�(XUR]RQH�DQG�DV�D�IXWXUH�UHVRXUFH�SRRO��&KLQD�QHHGV�*HUPDQ\�IRU�LWV�DGYDQFHG�NQRZ�KRZ�DQG�WHFKQRORJ\��DV�D�SRWHQWLDO�EXIIHU�DJDLQVW�WKH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV��DQG�DV�D�JDWHZD\�WR�(XURSH¶V� DYDQW�JDUGH� LQ� JHQHUDO��7KH� UDSLGO\� LQFUHDVLQJ� LQWHUGHSHQGHQFH� EHW�ZHHQ�WKH�WZR�NH\�SOD\HUV�FRXOG�DOVR�RSHQ�XS�PXWXDO�LQIOXHQFHV�ZLWKLQ�VHJPHQWV�of societal development and thus become a chance for a different transition in China.

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�� Thirdly�SURFHHG�WR�SDUWLFLSDWLRQ�RI�DOZD\V�ELJJHU�SDUWV�RI�WKH�SRSXODWLRQ�LQ�WKH�framework of some sort of illiberal republic.

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47

Chapter 4The Ethnonationalism Problem: Is There a Feasible Solution in Sight? The Cases of the Uyghurs and Tibet

Roland Benedikter

If, as Singapore National University’s Walker Connor has pointed out following German political sociologist Max Weber, a nation is not merely an economic or political construct, but rather a matter of group psychology, “a vivid sense of same-ness or oneness of kind, which, from the perspective of the group, sets it off from all other groups in a most vital way, (and) this sense or consciousness of kind is derived from a myth of common descent (where) members of a nation feel or intui-tively sense that they are related to one another,”1 then most of the 56 ethnic minori-ties living on Chinese soil are not part of the Chinese nation, let alone populations “integrated” by force like the Tibetans. Although Connor is right in pointing out that “by their very numbers, the Han Chinese furnish proof of being history’s most successful assimilators,”2 not least by using Confucianism as a tool of assimila-tion, this mastery seems to come to an end the more the modernization of China is proceeding.

Modernization is by its very nature a diversifying force, and one of its great para-doxes is that by diversifying populations through facilitating their specific capaci-ties, talents, differences, and individualities, it often also sets free differing group identities sometimes long hidden under the veil of national coherence and unity. This is particularly the case in historical transition periods when state-building ef-forts are at the center of policies. As Huang Wei has pointed out, there is an intricate relation between state-building and the rise of separatist ethnonationalism.

(There are) dynamics between state-building and ethno-nationalism in China. State-buil-ding, which intends to assure and expand its power, provides opportunity for ethno-natio-nalism to grow, and even more, for ethnic political movements to occur. The shift in the state policy affects the cognitive framework of the minority people, provides sustainable resource to the movement, and offers space for social movement organizations to surface. (In this sense), state-building produces some unintended results.3

1 W. Connor: Eco- or ethnonationalism? In: Ethnic and Racial Studies, Volume 7, Number 3, July 1984, Taylor and Francis.2 W. Connor: Ethnonationalism: The Quest for Understanding. Princeton University Press 1994, pp. 54–55.3 Huang Wei: Nationalism and state integration strategy. A case study of Uygur people in Xinjiang, China. National University of Singapore 2005, http://scholarbank.nus.sg/handle/10635/17113.

R. Benedikter, V. Nowotny, China’s Road Ahead, SpringerBriefs in Political Science, DOI 10.1007/978-1-4614-9363-1_4, © The Author(s) 2014

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Division Policy. Underscoring US Helplessness when

It Comes to Ethnonationalism

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The Situation in Tibet: Record After Record of Self-

Immolations in Antigovernment Protest

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An Unsustainable Situation

Disregarding this crucial insight, no signs of reconciliation were reported after the SRZHU�WUDQVIHU�WR�;L�-LQSLQJ��$V�RI�-XO\�����������GHDWKV�RI�7LEHWDQV�LQ�VHOI�LPPR�ODWLRQ�UHDFKHG�DW�OHDVW������ZLWK�QR�HQG�LQ�VLJKW��� The situation of the environment LV�GHWHULRUDWLQJ�IDVW�GXH�WR�&KLQD¶V�XQUHVWULFWHG�DQG�ZLGHO\�XQVXVWDLQDEOH�XVH�RI�WKH�region as a resource for its growth,���DV�ZHOO�DV�D�FHQWHU�IRU�QXFOHDU�ZHDSRQU\�DQG�ZDVWH��$FFRUGLQJ�WR�HVWLPDWHV�������RI�WKH�IRUHVWV�LQ�HDVWHUQ�7LEHW�KDYH�EHHQ�ORJJHG��DQG�SDUWV�RI�7LEHW¶V�IUDJLOH�HFRV\VWHP�KDYH�EHHQ�VHULRXVO\�WKUHDWHQHG�WKURXJK�GHIRU�estation, mining, and population loss.���$V�WKH�'DODL�/DPD�SHUVRQDOO\�UHSRUWHG�DV�HDUO\�DV�LQ�WKH�VHFRQG�KDOI�RI�WKH�����V�

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��Tibet: An Open Wound in China’s Flank

Tibet: An Open Wound in China’s Flank

6HHQ�RYHUDOO��7LEHW� UHPDLQV�DQ�RSHQ�ZRXQG� LQ�&KLQD¶V�PDLQODQG�ERG\�� ,W�FRQVWL�tutes an increasing burden on China’s domestic development. Although the West has decided to remain silent for fear of Chinese reprisals and because of increasing dependence on Chinese foreign trade surplus, the situation in Tibet has the potential WR� LQIHFW�RWKHU� DUHDV� DQG� WKH� UHJLRQ�FRXOG�EHFRPH�D� VWHDG\� VRXUFH�RI�XQUHVW� DQG�LQVWDELOLW\� IRU�&KLQD� DV� D�ZKROH�� ,Q� D� UHJLRQ� ULGGHQ� E\� LQMXVWLFH�� FRQWUDGLFWLRQV��DQG�HWKQLF� ULIWV�� WKH� IXWXUH�FRH[LVWHQFH�EHWZHHQ�7LEHWDQV�DQG� LPPLJUDQW�&KLQHVH�DSSHDUV�PRUH�XQFHUWDLQ�WKDQ�HYHU��7R�WKH�PRUH�WKDQ����RWKHU�QRQ�+DQ�PLQRULWLHV�LQ�&KLQD��DPRXQWLQJ�WR�����PLOOLRQ�SHRSOH�PDNLQJ�XS�����RI�WKH�WRWDO�SRSXODWLRQ��� 7LEHW¶V�VHULHV�RI�VHOI�LPPRODWLRQV�LV�RQFH�DJDLQ�EHFRPLQJ�WKH�V\PERO�RI�UHSUHVVLRQ�DQG�LQHTXDOLW\��WULJJHULQJ�XQUHVW�LQ�HWKQLF�PLQRULW\�DUHDV�WKURXJKRXW�WKH�FRXQWU\��QRW�RQO\�LQ�WKH�8\JKXU�DUHDV�

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continued surveillance and intimidation, none is encouraging to see a light at the end of the tunnel.

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$FFRUGLQJO\��LQ�WKH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV7KH�JRYHUQRU�RI� WKH�VWDWH�RI�:DVKLQJWRQ��-D\�,QVOHH��H[SUHVVHG�KLV�GHHS�FRQFHUQ�IRU� WKH�situation in Tibet and hoped that the legitimate concern of the Tibetan people is addressed. *RYHUQRU� ,QVOHH�ZDV�D�PHPEHU�RI� WKH�86�+RXVH�RI�5HSUHVHQWDWLYHV�UHSUHVHQWLQJ� WKH��st &RQJUHVVLRQDO�'LVWULFW��+H�KDG�VSRNHQ� LQ� IDYRU�RI�+RXVH�UHVROXWLRQ������FDOOLQJ�RQ� WKH�Chinese government to end its crackdown in Tibet and to enter into a substantive dialogue ZLWK�+LV�+ROLQHVV�WKH�'DOL�/DPD�WR�UHVROYH�WKH�SUREOHP�RI�7LEHW���

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1. Transformation of the whole of Tibet into a zone of peace; ���$EDQGRQPHQW� RI� &KLQD¶V� SRSXODWLRQ� WUDQVIHU� SROLF\�ZKLFK� WKUHDWHQV� WKH� YHU\�

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freedoms;

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���5HVWRUDWLRQ�DQG�SURWHFWLRQ�RI�7LEHW¶V�QDWXUDO�HQYLURQPHQW�DQG�WKH�DEDQGRQPHQW�of China’s use of Tibet for the production of nuclear weapons and dumping of nuclear waste;

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little or nothing has been achieved through this proposal, not least due to China’s VWXEERUQ�QRQQHJRWLDWLRQ�SROLF\��&KLQD�LQVWHDG�KDV²ULJKWO\²SRLQWHG�RXW�WKH�FRQWUD�GLFWLRQ�LQ�SRLQW���RI�DGYRFDWLQJ�³GHPRFUDWLF�IUHHGRPV´�E\�WKH�'DODL�/DPD�ZKR�ZDV�FHUWDLQO\�QRW�HOHFWHG�GHPRFUDWLFDOO\��QRU�DV�DQ�LQVWLWXWLRQ�KDV�HYHU�EHHQ�GHGLFDWHG�WR�GHPRFUDF\�EHLQJ�WKH�FOHDU�H[SUHVVLRQ�RI�WKHRFUDF\��:KHQ�WKH�FLYLO�VRFLHW\�LQLWLDWLYH�³7KH�2SHQ�&RQVWLWXWLRQ�,QLWLDWLYH´��2&,��&KLQHVH��⏻䥮��SLQ\LQ��JǀQJPpQJ���VRPH�WLPHV�UHIHUUHG� WR� LQ�(QJOLVK�DV�Gongmeng��DQ�RUJDQL]DWLRQ�FRQVLVWLQJ�RI� ODZ\HUV�and academics that advocates the rule of law and greater constitutional protections, SXEOLVKHG�D�UHSRUW�RQ�7LEHW�LQ�VSULQJ�������³FULWL]LVLQJ�WKH�&KLQHVH�JRYHUQPHQW¶V�SROLF\�WRZDUGV�7LEHW��DOOHJLQJ�WKDW�SURSDJDQGD�LV�EHLQJ�XVHG�WR�PDVN�IDLOLQJV�LQ�LWV�7LEHW�SROLF\��VXFK�DV�HWKQLF�LQHTXDOLW\�DQG�FUHDWLQJ�µDQ�DULVWRFUDF\�RI�FRUUXSW�DQG�DEXVLYH�JRYHUQPHQW�RIILFLDOV¶´����7KH�UHSRUW�FLUFXODWHG�EURDGO\�WKURXJK�GLVFXVVLRQ�websites, but the government refused to ever comment on it. One month later, the RUJDQL]DWLRQ�ZDV�ILUVW�ILQHG��WKHQ�GHFODUHG�LOOHJDO�DQG�VKXW�GRZQ�E\�WKH�DXWKRULWLHV�

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A Proven European Model of Ethnic Pacification

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The Territorial Autonomy of South Tyrol: A Model

for China’s Ethnic Pacification?

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Historical Background

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7KUHH�\HDUV�IROORZLQJ�WKH�DQQH[DWLRQ�LQ�������0XVVROLQL¶V�)DVFLVW�JRYHUQPHQW�EHJDQ�WR�,WDOLDQL]H�WKH�UHJLRQ�E\�IRUFH�E\�DWWUDFWLQJ�ODUJH�QXPEHUV�RI�,WDOLDQV�PDLQO\�IURP�WKH�6RXWK�WR�VHWWOH�LQ�WKH�DUHD��VLPLODU�WR�WKH�SROLF\�DGDSWHG�E\�WKH�&KLQHVH�LQ�WRGD\¶V�7LEHW���7KLV�ZDV�LQWHUUXSWHG�RQO\�E\�:RUOG�:DU�,,��$IWHU�WKH�HQG�RI�WKH�6HFRQG�:RUOG�:DU�6RXWK�7\UROHVH�UHSUHVHQWDWLYHV�DQG�WKH�SURYLVLRQDO�JRYHUQPHQW�RI�$XVWULD�EHJDQ�ZRUNLQJ�WR�VHH�WKDW�6RXWK�7\URO�ZRXOG�EH�UHWXUQHG�WR�$XVWULD��7KH�*UHDW�3RZHUV�RI�WKH�YLFWRULRXV�$OOLHV�KDG��KRZHYHU��DOUHDG\�UHMHFWHG�VXFK�FODLPV�LQ�WKH�DXWXPQ�RI������DQG��GHVSLWH�IXUWKHU�PDVVLYH�DWWHPSWV�E\�WKH�6RXWK�7\UROHVH�DQG�$XVWULD� �LQ�6RXWK�7\URO�PRUH� WKDQ������RI� WKH� QDWLYH� SRSXODWLRQ� VLJQHG� WKH�FDOO�IRU�D�SOHELVFLWH��DQG�LQ�WKH�FDSLWDO�RI�7\URO�� OQQVEUXFN��D�KXJH�GHPRQVWUDWLRQ�ZDV�KHOG�RQ�0D\�����������D�ILQDO�QHJDWLYH�GHFLVLRQ�ZDV�WDNHQ�DW�WKH�HQG�RI�$SULO�������7KH�RQO\�ZD\�OHIW�RSHQ�QRZ�IRU�$XVWULD�DQG�OWDO\�ZDV�WR�QHJRWLDWH�GLUHFWO\�VR�WKDW�6RXWK�7\URO�VKRXOG�REWDLQ�DQ�³LQWHUPHGLDWH´�VWDWXV�WKURXJK�VRPH�IRUP�RI�VHOI�JRYHUQPHQW��7KURXJK�VSHFLDO�SURYLVLRQV�DQG�OHJLVODWLRQ��*HUPDQ�VSHDNLQJ�FLWL]HQV�should be granted parification of the German and Italian languages in public offices and official documents as well as before the courts. A basic agreement was reached ZLWKLQ�WKH�IUDPHZRUN�RI�WKH�SHDFH�QHJRWLDWLRQV�LQ�3DULV��2Q�6HSWHPEHU���������WKH�

���This and some of the following is based on the official information booklet about South 7\URO�� “6RXWK� 7\URO²DQ� LQWURGXFWLRQ´ available at the Press office of the Autonomous 6RXWK� 7\UROHDQ� *RYHUQPHQW�� &ULVSL� VWUHHW� ��� /DQGKDXV� ��� ,������� %RO]DQR�%R]HQ�%XO]DQ��KWWS���ZZZ�SURYLQ]�E]�LW�OSD�HQJOLVK�LQGH[�KWPO��2WKHU�VRXUFHV�LQFOXGH�WKH�WKUHH�VHPLQDO�ZRUNV�RI�$QWKRQ\�$OFRFN��$��$OFRFN��7KH�KLVWRU\�RI�WKH�6RXWK�7\URO�TXHVWLRQ��/RQGRQ��-RVHSK�������$��$OFRFN��7KH�)XWXUH� RI� FXOWXUDO�PLQRULWLHV��2[IRUG� DQG�/RQGRQ��6W��0DUWLQ¶V�3UHVV� ������DQG�$��$OFRFN��$�+LVWRU\�RI�WKH�3URWHFWLRQ�RI�5HJLRQDO�&XOWXUDO�0LQRULWLHV�LQ�(XURSH��)URP�WKH�(GLFW�RI�WKH�1DQWHV�WR�WKH�3UHVHQW�'D\��1HZ�<RUN�DQG�/RQGRQ��3DOJUDYH�0F0LOODQ������

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Ethnic Groups

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Which Are the Pillars of the South Tyrol Autonomy Today?

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�� 7KH�VR�FDOOHG�Ethnic Proportions Decree demands the declaration of ethnic af�ILOLDWLRQ�E\�HYHU\�FLWL]HQ�RQ�WKH�VRLO�RI�6RXWK�7\URO�LQ�WKH�IUDPHZRUN�RI�HYHU\�census, as well as the proof of an acceptable knowledge of the major provincial ODQJXDJHV�LQ�6RXWK�7\URO��*HUPDQ�DQG�,WDOLDQ��DV�REOLJDWRU\�IRU�SHRSOH�HPSOR\HG�in the public sector. The “acceptable knowledge of the German and Italian lan�JXDJHV´� LV�XVXDOO\�DVFHUWDLQHG�WKURXJK�D�ELOLQJXDOLVP�H[DPLQDWLRQ��ZKLFK�FDQ�DOVR�EH� H[WHQGHG� WR� WULOLQJXDOLVP��7KLV� H[DP� LV� D� KXUGOH� IRU� DOO� FDQGLGDWHV�RI�the Italian national state who have no knowledge of German and therefore it SUHYHQWV�XQFRQWUROOHG�LPPLJUDWLRQ�DQG�LV�LPSOLFLWO\�DQ�DGYDQWDJH�IRU�WKH�ORFDO�SRSXODWLRQ�LQ�VHDUFK�RI�ODERU��,Q�WKH�FRPSHWLWLRQ�IRU�HPSOR\PHQW�LQ�WKH�SXEOLF�VHFWRU��WKH�YDVW�PDMRULW\�RI�WKH�FDQGLGDWHV�IURP�RWKHU�,WDOLDQ�SURYLQFHV�ZRXOG�EH�H[FOXGHG��WR�WKH�DGYDQWDJH�DQG�EHQHILW�RI�6RXWK�7\UROHDQ�UHVLGHQWV��7KLV�FDQ�EH�VHHQ�DV�RQH�PDMRU�UHDVRQ�IRU�KLJK�HPSOR\PHQW�LQ�WKH�SURYLQFH��FXUUHQWO\�������XQHPSOR\PHQW�UDWH���ZKLFK�LV�DQRWKHU�PDLQ�SUHFRQGLWLRQ�IRU�WKH�VXFFHVV�RI�WKH�DXWRQRP\�PRGHO�DQG�IRU�WKH�SHDFHIXO�FR�H[LVWHQFH�EHWZHHQ�WKH�HWKQLF�JURXSV��0RVW� SUREDEO\�� WKH� DXWRQRP\� UHJXODWLRQ�ZRXOGQ¶W� EH� DFFHSWHG� VR�ZHOO� E\� DOO�three ethnic groups without the apparent economic success and the practical ben�efits for all local citizens.

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ZK\�WKH�6RXWK�7\URO�DXWRQRP\�LV�H[SOLFLWO\�FRQVLGHUHG�D�territorial�DXWRQRP\��not an ethnic�DXWRQRP\��ZKLFK�ZRXOG�EH�DW�WKH�GLVDGYDQWDJH�RI�WKH�,WDOLDQ�VWDWH�SRSXODWLRQ�OLYLQJ�LQ�WKH�WHUULWRU\�

�� ,Q�RUGHU�WR�HQVXUH�WKH�LQGHSHQGHQW�FXOWXUDO�GHYHORSPHQW�RI�HDFK�OLQJXLVWLF�JURXS��each has its own administrative and organizational domain in the form of an LQGHSHQGHQW� ORFDO�PLQLVWU\�IRU�FXOWXUH�DQG�VFKRROLQJ��7KH�,WDOLDQ�HWKQLF�JURXS�FXOWXUDOO\�FRRSHUDWHV�FORVHO\�ZLWK�RWKHU�,WDOLDQ�SURYLQFHV�DQG�UHJLRQV��DQG�WKH�*HUPDQ�DQG�/DGLQ�HWKQLF�JURXSV�PDLQWDLQ�DFWLYH�FRQWDFWV�ZLWK�WKH�*HUPDQ�DQG�5DHWRURPDQ�FXOWXUDO�ZRUOGV��$FFRUGLQJ�WR�WKH�$XWRQRP\�6WDWXWH��WKH�3URYLQFH�RI�6RXWK�7\URO�KDV�SULPDU\�OHJLVODWLYH�SRZHUV�LQ�WHUPV�RI�FXOWXUH�

�� /HJDO�SURFHHGLQJV�DQG�WULDOV�PXVW�EH�FRQGXFWHG�LQ�WKH�GHFODUHG�PRWKHU�WRQJXH�RI�the accused.

Measures to Protect the Minorities

7KH�QHZ�VWDWXWH�RI�������WKH�VR�FDOOHG�³$XWRQRP\�3DFNDJH´��FRQVLVWHG�RI�����PHD�VXUHV��7KH�PHDVXUHV�VKRXOG�KDYH�EHHQ�LVVXHG�ZLWKLQ�IRXU�\HDUV�IURP�WKHQ�E\�WKH�,WDOLDQ�QDWLRQDO�JRYHUQPHQW��%XW�LQ�WKH�HQG�PRUH�WKDQ����\HDUV�ZHUH�UHTXLUHG�E\�WKH�IDVW�FKDQJLQJ�,WDOLDQ�JRYHUQPHQWV�WR�LPSOHPHQW�LW��2Q�WKH�EDVLV�RI�WKH�3DULV�$JUHH�PHQW�� WKH�6RXWK�7\URO�$XWRQRP\�6WDWXWH�VKRXOG�HQVXUH� WKH�PDLQWHQDQFH�DQG� OLQ�JXLVWLF�DQG�FXOWXUDO�GHYHORSPHQW�RI�WKH�*HUPDQ�DQG�/DGLQ�OLQJXLVWLF�JURXSV�ZLWKLQ�the framework of the ltalian national state. But at the same time the benefits of the HQODUJHG�SRZHUV�RI�VHOI�JRYHUQPHQW�DSSO\�WR�PHPEHUV�RI�DOO�WKUHH�OLQJXLVWLF�JURXSV�LQ�6RXWK�7\URO�

�� 7KH�PRVW�LPSRUWDQW�primary powers�RI�WKH�$XWRQRPRXV�3URYLQFH�RI�6RXWK�7\URO�are: place naming, protection of objects of artistic and ethnic value, the regula�tion of small holdings, arts and crafts, local customs and traditions, planning and EXLOGLQJ��SXEOLF�KRXVLQJ��SXEOLF�FRQVWUXFWLRQ��FRPPRQ�ULJKWV��D�R���IRU�SDVWXUDJH�DQG�WLPEHU���PLQLQJ��KXQWLQJ�DQG�ILVKLQJ��DJULFXOWXUH�DQG�IRUHVWU\��WKH�SURWHFWLRQ�of fauna and flora, fairs and markets, prevention of disasters, transport, tourism, H[SURSULDWLRQ��SXEOLF�ZHOIDUH��QXUVHU\�VFKRROV�� VFKRRO�ZHOIDUH��DQG�YRFDWLRQDO�training.

�� Restricted powers� DSSO\� WR� WHDFKLQJ� LQ� SULPDU\� DQG� VHFRQGDU\� VFKRROV�� WUDGH�DQG�FRPPHUFH��DSSUHQWLFHVKLSV��SURPRWLRQ�RI�LQGXVWULDO�SURGXFWLRQ��K\JLHQH�DQG�health, sport, and leisure.

Census and Linguistic Proportions

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)XUWKHUPRUH��GXULQJ�WKH�)DVFLVW�GLFWDWRUVKLS��SXEOLF�KRXVLQJ�LQ�6RXWK�7\URO�ZDV�DOPRVW�H[FOXVLYHO\�DOORWWHG�WR�,WDOLDQ�VSHDNLQJ�WHQDQWV��7KLV�NLQG�RI�SROLF\�FRQWLQ�XHG�HYHQ�DIWHU�WKH������3DULV�$JUHHPHQW�ZKLFK�SURYLGHG�IRU�³HTXDOLW\�RI�ULJKWV�DV�regards the entering upon public offices with a view to reaching a more appropri�DWH� SURSRUWLRQ� RI� HPSOR\PHQW� EHWZHHQ� WKH� WZR� HWKQLFDO� JURXSV�´� )URP� ����� WR������������XQLWV�RI�SXEOLF�KRXVLQJ�ZHUH�EXLOW�LQ�6RXWK�7\URO��RI�ZKLFK�������ZHUH�LQ�WKH�FDSLWDO�%RO]DQR�%R]HQ�%XO]DQ���ZKLFK�ZHUH�HQWLUHO\�DOORWWHG�WR�LPPLJUDWLQJ�,WDOLDQ�IDPLOLHV��QRW�XQOLNH�WRGD\¶V�SUDFWLFH�ZLWK�UHJDUG�WR�&KLQHVH�LPPLJUDQWV�LQ�7LEHW���)URP������WR������WKH�QDWLRQDO�JRYHUQPHQW�EXLOW�D�IXUWKHU�������XQLWV��RI�ZKLFK�������ZHUH�LQ�%RO]DQR�%R]HQ�%XO]DQ�ZLWK�RQO\�����JLYHQ�WR�ORFDO�*HUPDQ�speaking tenants.

The introduction of a fair distribution of administrative posts and housing ac�cording to the numerical strength of the three ethnic groups was therefore perceived DV�UHSDUDWLRQ�RI�)DVFLVW�LQMXVWLFH�E\�WKH�PLQRULWLHV��6LQFH�������WKH�NH\�WR�WKDW�GLV�WULEXWLRQ� KDV� EHHQ� WKH� DERYH�PHQWLRQHG�SULQFLSOH� RI� HWKQLF� SURSRUWLRQV�ZKLFK� LV�based on the numerical strength of the three linguistic groups living in the province DFFRUGLQJ�WR�WKH�ODWHVW�FHQVXV��3XEOLF�KRXVLQJ�EXLOW�VLQFH������ZDV�GLVWULEXWHG�DF�FRUGLQJ�WR�HWKQLF�SURSRUWLRQV��EXW�VLQFH������LW�KDV�EHHQ�GLVWULEXWHG�DFFRUGLQJ�WR�D�VR�FDOOHG�³FRPELQHG�SURSRUWLRQ´�ZKLFK�WDNHV�LQWR�DFFRXQW�QRW�RQO\�WKH�QXPHULFDO�strength of the three linguistic groups but also the needs of each group based on the requests for housing submitted.

&RQFHUQLQJ�WKH�ORFDO�ERGLHV�LQ�WKH�SURYLQFH��WKH�SHUVRQQHO�RI�WKH�SXEOLF�VHFWRU��WKH�PXQLFLSDOLWLHV��WKH�KHDOWK�VHUYLFHV��HWF����WKH�HTXDOLW\�RI�ULJKWV�WKDW�UHJXODWHV�WKH�HQWHULQJ�XSRQ�SXEOLF�RIILFHV�SURYLGHG�IRU�LQ�WKH�3DULV�$JUHHPHQW�ZDV�JUDGXDOO\�LP�SOHPHQWHG��%\�WKH�\HDU�������DOVR�HPSOR\PHQW�LQ�,WDOLDQ�QDWLRQDO�DQG�VHPL�DXWRQR�PRXV�ERGLHV�LQ�6RXWK�7\URO��UDLOZD\V��SRVWDO�VHUYLFH��URDGV�DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ��FXVWRPV�VHUYLFH��FRXUW�DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ��RFFXUUHG�SURSRUWLRQDOO\�DFFRUGLQJ�WR�WKH�VWUHQJWK�RI�WKH� WKUHH� HWKQLF� JURXSV��+RZHYHU�� FHUWDLQ� VWDWH� ERGLHV� VXFK� DV�� IRU� H[DPSOH�� WKH�PLOLWDU\��WKH�SROLFH�DQG�WKH�VHFXULW\�VHUYLFH��DUH�QRW�VXEMHFW�WR�WKH�SULQFLSOH�RI�HWKQLF�proportions.

Solve Ethnic Conflict Through Self-Government

6XPPLQJ�XS�� WKH�SULPDU\� OHJLVODWLYH� FRPSHWHQFHV�RI� WKH� DXWRQRPRXV�SURYLQFLDO�government include: the organization of provincial authorities and their staff, the REOLJDWLRQ�RI�ELOLQJXDOLVP��*HUPDQ�DQG�,WDOLDQ��ZLWK�WKH�WKLUG�ODQJXDJH�5KDHWR�5R�PDQLF�D�SOXV��IRU�DOO�SXEOLF�HPSOR\HHV��WKH�SURWHFWLRQ�DQG�FDUH�IRU�KLVWRULFDO��DUWLV�tic, and ethnic values; provincial planning and building directives; conservation of WKH�ODQGVFDSH��FRPPXQLW\�HDVHPHQWV��URDGV�DQG�SXEOLF�ZRUNV��FRPPXQLFDWLRQ�DQG�WUDQVSRUW��WRXULVP�DQG�FDWHULQJ�LQGXVWU\��DJULFXOWXUH�DQG�IRUHVWU\��SXEOLF�FDUH��DQG�welfare. There are special measures to protect and preserve the various languages

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2QH�RI�WKH�PRVW�LPSRUWDQW�PHDVXUHV�LV�WKDW�WKH�SURYLQFH�RI�6RXWK�7\URO�KDV�WKUHH�VHSDUDWH�VFKRRO�V\VWHPV�IRU�WKH�WKUHH�ODQJXDJH�JURXSV��ZKHUH�HYHU\�V\VWHP�ZRUNV�PRQROLQJXDOO\�LQ�WKH�QDWLYH�ODQJXDJH�RI�RQH�JURXS��ZLWK�WKH�VHFRQG�ODQJXDJH�FRQ�VLGHUHG�WKH�ILUVW�IRUHLJQ�ODQJXDJH���EXW�ZKHUH�DOO�FLWL]HQV��LQGHSHQGHQW�RI�WKHLU�HWK�QLF�DIILOLDWLRQ��FDQ�IUHHO\�FKRRVH�WR�ZKLFK�V\VWHP�WKH\�ZDQW�WR�VHQG�WKHLU�FKLOGUHQ��7KH�SURYLQFH�IXUWKHUPRUH�VSHQGV�D�VXEVWDQWLDO�DPRXQW�RI�PRQH\�RQ�*HUPDQ��,WDO�LDQ��DQG�/DGLQ�FXOWXUDO�DFWLYLWLHV��,Q�RUGHU�WR�HQVXUH�WKH�LQGHSHQGHQW�FXOWXUDO�GHYHO�opment of each linguistic group, each has its own administrative and organizational domain, which means that the three parallel culture ministries, one for each group, DUH�FRPSOHWHO\�LQGHSHQGHQW�RI�HDFK�RWKHU�DQG�UHFHLYH�WKHLU�SDUW�RI�WKH�WD[�UHYHQXHV�DFFRUGLQJ�WR�WKH�SURSRUWLRQ�RI�SRSXODWLRQ�WKH\�UHSUHVHQW��1HYHUWKHOHVV�WKHUH�DUH�D�QXPEHU�RI�DUHDV��IRU�H[DPSOH��LQ�PXVLF�DQG�DUW��ZKHUH�FORVH�FRRSHUDWLRQ�EHWZHHQ�DOO�three linguistic groups results in mutual enrichment.

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,Q�DGGLWLRQ��WKH�8QLWHG�1DWLRQV�SOD\V�DQ�LPSRUWDQW�UROH�IRU�WKH�6RXWK�7\URO�DX�WRQRP\��7KH\�PDGH� DYDLODEOH� OHJDO�PHFKDQLVPV� WR� WKH�6RXWK�7\UROHVH� WR� HQVXUH�,WDO\�FRPSOLHV�ZLWK�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�WUHDWLHV�DIIHFWLQJ�WKH�UHJLRQ��DQG�UHTXLUH�WKDW�,WDO\�FRQVXOW�IRUPDOO\�RU�LQIRUPDOO\�ZLWK�RWKHU�PHPEHUV�RI�WKH�8QLWHG�1DWLRQV�DQG�WKH�(XURSHDQ�8QLRQ�EHIRUH�WDNLQJ�DQ\�DFWLRQ�WKDW�PD\�DIIHFW�WKH�SURYLQFLDO�DXWRQRP\��7KH�UHVXOW�LV�WKDW�WKH�,WDOLDQV�FDQQRW�IRUELG�WKH�XVH�RI�*HUPDQ��DV�WKH\�GLG�XQGHU�)DVFLVP�LQ�WKH�����V��DQG�FDQQRW�FUHDWH�HFRQRPLF�SURMHFWV�WR�SHUVXDGH�,WDOLDQ�FLWL�]HQV�IURP�RWKHU�SURYLQFHV�WR�LPPLJUDWH�WKHUHE\�SRVVLEO\�ZHDNHQLQJ�WKH�PLQRULWLHV��DV�WKH�&KLQHVH�FRQWLQXH�WR�GR�LQ�7LEHW���,WDO\�PXVW��PRUHRYHU��FRQVXOW�ZLWK�RWKHU�VWDWHV�DQG�DELGH�E\�WUHDWLHV�VLJQHG�ZLWK�WKH�PLQRULW\�JURXSV�RU�ULVN�DOLHQDWLRQ�E\�WKH�(XURSHDQ�8QLRQ�ZKLFK�LV�VRPHWKLQJ�WKDW�WKH�FRXQWU\�FDQ¶W�DIIRUG�QHLWKHU�IRU�SROLWL�cal nor for economic reasons.

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7KRPDV�%HQHGLNWHU� FDOOV� LW� ³oQH�RI� WKH� JUHDW� PRGHUQ�$XWRQRP\� V\VWHPV�RI� WKH� ZRUOG�´���DEOH�³WR�VROYH�HWKQLF�FRQIOLFW�WKURXJK�VHOI�JRYHUQPHQW�´��

Autonomy, Equality, and Parity

&RQFOXGLQJ��LW�FDQ�EH�VWDWHG�WKDW�WKH�SURSRUWLRQDO�DQG�EL��DQG�WULOLQJXDO�UHJXODWLRQV�represent reparation of Fascism’s acts of injustice against the regional minorities. 2Q�WKH�RWKHU�KDQG��WKH\�DUH�D�VDIHJXDUG��QRW�XQFRQWURYHUVLDO�EXW�QHYHUWKHOHVV�XVHIXO�for an agreed distribution of welfare among members of all three language groups. 7KH�VXFFHVV�RI� WKH�6RXWK�7\URO�PRGHO�� LQ�FRQWUDVW� WR� WKH�GHYDVWDWLRQ�WKDW�KDV�DF�FRPSDQLHG�RWKHU�HWKQLF�FRQIOLFWV��UHYHDOV�WKDW�LW�FRXOG�SURYLGH�D�JRRG�H[DPSOH�RI�autonomous integrated regional organization between different cultural and ethnic groups. Can these arrangements be imitated and succeed in Xinjiang and Tibet as ZHOO��RU�DW�OHDVW�KHOS�DV�DQ�RULHQWDWLRQ�IRU�WKH�FR�H[LVWHQFH�RI�WKH�PDMRU�HWKQLF�JURXSV�there?

,Q� MXGJLQJ� WKH�RULJLQ�� LPSDFW��DQG�HIIHFW�RI� WKH�6RXWK�7\URO�DXWRQRP\�V\VWHP�DV�ZHOO�DV�LWV�SRWHQWLDO�XVHIXOQHVV�IRU�FRQWHPSRUDU\�&KLQD¶V�HWKQLF�SUREOHPV��LW�LV�ILUVW�RI�DOO� LPSRUWDQW� WR�GLVFHUQ�DPRQJ� WKH� WKUHH�FRQFHSWV�RI�DXWRQRP\��HTXDOLW\��DQG�SDULW\��7KH\�DUH�QRW�WKH�VDPH��EXW�DOO�KDYH�WR�EH�LQWHJUDWHG�LI�D�ZRUNLQJ�VROX�WLRQ� IRU� QRWRULRXVO\�RYHUFRPSOH[�PXOWLHWKQLF� FRQIOLFW� DUHDV�KDV� WR�EH�SUDFWLFDOO\�LPSOHPHQWHG��$V�WKH�6RXWK�7\URO�PRGHO�WHDFKHV��HWKQLF�FRQIOLFWV�DUH�QRW�QHFHVVDU�LO\�DERXW�HTXDOLW\��EXW�DERXW�VHOI�GHWHUPLQDWLRQ�RI�FHUWDLQ�VXEJURXSV�ZLWKLQ�D�PRUH�FRPSOH[�VRFLHWDO�ERG\�LQ�WKH�ILUVW�SODFH��7KHVH�JURXSV�XVXDOO\�IHHO�GLVDGYDQWDJHG�DQG�GHPDQG� D� FRXQWHURIIHU� IRU� WKHLU� XQVDWLVI\LQJ� FRQGLWLRQ��7KDW� LPSOLHV� VSHFLDO�WUHDWPHQW��ZKLFK�LV�XVXDOO\�SHUFHLYHG�DV�³MXVWLFH´�E\�WKH�JLYHQ�JURXSV��DQG�DV�³XQ�MXVWLILHG�SULYLOHJH´�E\�WKH�RWKHUV��LQ�SDUWLFXODU�E\�WKH�PDMRULW\�WKDW�KDV�WR�FRQFHGH�VSHFLDO�ULJKWV�WR�WKH�PLQRULW\�

On the other hand, ethnic conflicts, even if equipped with the most efficient solu�WLRQV�PHFKDQLVPV��ZLOO�QHYHU�UHDFK�IXOO�MXVWLFH�DQG�FDQ�QHYHU�EH�EDVHG�RQ�HTXDOLW\��EXW�DUH�DERXW�SDULW\��3DULW\�LQ�VXFK�VHWWLQJV�FDQ�PHDQ�PDQ\�WKLQJV��IURP�SRVLWLYH�GLVFULPLQDWLRQ�LQ�RUGHU�WR�IXUWKHU�HTXDO�FKDQFHV��DQ��DOWKRXJK�SURGXFWLYH�DQG�SR�WHQWLDOO\�SURJUHVVLYH��FRQWUDGLFWLRQ�LQ�LWVHOI��WR�WKH�WHUULWRULDO�LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ�UDWKHU�WKDQ�WKH�HWKQLF�LQ�WKH�VWULFW�VHQVH��WKXV�JLYLQJ�HYHU\�FLWL]HQ�OLYLQJ�LQ�D�VSHFLDO�DUHD�WKH�VDPH�ULJKWV�RI�WKH�SULYLOHJHG�JURXS��QRW�RQO\�WR�WKH�PHPEHUV�RI�WKLV�JURXS��DV�LV�WKH�FDVH�LQ�6RXWK�7\URO���7KDW�LQ�WXUQ�PD\�OHDG�WR�QHZ�FRQIOLFW��DV�LQ�WKH�FDVH�RI�,WDO\�ZKHUH�³QRUPDO´�,WDOLDQ�FLWL]HQV�QRW�VHOGRPO\�GHQRXQFH�WKH�VSHFLDO�ULJKWV�RI�VHOI�JRYHUQPHQW�RI�,WDOLDQV�OLYLQJ�LQ�6RXWK�7\URO�DQ�XQMXVWLILHG�GLVFULPLQDWLRQ�WKDW�

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DOOHJHGO\�KXUWV�WKH�SULQFLSOH�RI�HTXDOLW\��DV�ZHOO�DV�FHUWDLQ�IXQGDPHQWV�RI�WKH�UXOH�RI�law anchored in the Italian national constitution.

7KHVH�DVSHFWV�DUH�DOVR�WZR�PDLQ�SRLQWV�ZK\�WKH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV�ZKLFK�LV�FHQWHUHG�like no other nation on constitutional rights of the individual, hesitate to deal with VSHFLDO�JURXS�ULJKWV�� WKXV�LQ�WXUQ�XQZLOOLQJO\�FUHDWLQJ�GLVDGYDQWDJHG�JURXSV�VXFK�DV�$IUR�$PHULFDQV� DQG� WKH� OLNH�� H[DFWO\�EHFDXVH�JURXS� ULJKWV� DUH�QRW� DGGUHVVHG��Something similar is the case with Confucian China, although not for constitutional, but rather for nationalist reasons stemming less from juridical or political, but more IURP�DQ�DQFLHQW�FXOWXUDO�KLVWRU\��PHPRU\��DQG�LGHQWLW\��DV�ZHOO�DV�RI�FRQFHSWV�VXFK�DV�VRFLDO�KDUPRQ\��REHGLHQFH��DQG�FROOHFWLYH�VSLULW�

Potential Effects of Autonomy Regulations on Tibet, the

Uyghurs, Other Minorities—And on China as a Nation

$FFRUGLQJ�WR�WKHVH�LQVLJKWV��WKH�EHVW�VROXWLRQ�ERWK�LQ�WKH�8\JKXU�DUHDV�DV�LQ�7LEHW��DV�IDU�DV�FDQ�EH�VHHQ�WRGD\��FRXOG�EH�IHGHUDOL]DWLRQ�EHWZHHQ�WKH�PDMRU�HWKQLF�JURXSV�RQ�WKH�EDVLV�RI�D�UHJLRQDO�DXWRQRP\�IROORZLQJ�WKH�6RXWK�7\URO�PRGHO��LI�VXFK�D�PRGHO�is implemented through a sober, nonidealistic approach that doesn’t ignore the dif�IHUHQFHV�DQG�FRPSOH[LWLHV�EHWZHHQ�DXWRQRP\��HTXDOLW\��MXVWLFH��DQG�SDULW\�

,Q�SDUWLFXODU��VRPH�EDVLF�DVSHFWV�IURP�WKH�6RXWK�7\URO�PRGHO�FRXOG�EH�WUDQVIHUUHG�WR�HWKQLF�FRQIOLFW�DUHDV�LQ�FRQWHPSRUDU\�&KLQD��VXFK�DV�GLIIHUHQWLDWHG�UHJLRQDO�WD[�DXWRQRP\�� GLVWULEXWLRQ� RI�PRQH\� DFFRUGLQJ� WR� SHUFHQWDJHV� RI� HWKQLF� SRSXODWLRQ��guarantees for ethnic representation in the local government and parliament, and V\VWHPDWLF� FXOWXUDO� LQGHSHQGHQFH� DV� DQ� DOWHUQDWLYH� WR� HWKQLF� VHSDUDWLVP��)XUWKHU�PRUH��LQ�DUHDV�ZLWK�D�³PL[HG´�FRH[LVWHQFH�EHWZHHQ�GLIIHUHQW�HWKQLF�JURXSV��LW�PLJKW�be wise to install parallel cultural and school administrations, and to give national DQG�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�JXDUDQWHHV�IRU� ODQJXDJH�DQG�KHULWDJH�DXWRQRP\��&RQFHUQLQJ�DOO�WKHVH�SURSRVDOV��WKH�6RXWK�7\URO�DXWRQRP\�VKRXOG�QRW�EH�PHUHO\�VHHQ�DV�D�PRGHO�WR�FRS\��EXW�DV�DQ�H[DPSOH�RI�FRQFUHWH�VXFFHVV�WKDW�FDQ�KHOS�WR�ILQG�DSSURSULDWH��RULJL�nal local solutions according to the practical needs of single situations.

,Q� VKRUW�� IROORZLQJ� WKH� 6RXWK� 7\URO� PRGHO�� 7LEHW� ZRXOG� EHFRPH� D� UHDO� DX�WRQRPRXV� ]RQH�� DGPLQLVWHUHG� E\� D� JRYHUQPHQW� HOHFWHG� E\�7LEHWDQ� UHVLGHQWV� DQG�HTXLSSHG�ZLWK�SULPDU\�DQG�VHFRQGDU\�OHJLVODWLYH�SRZHUV��7LEHW�ZRXOG�EH�HQWLWOHG�WR�HVWDEOLVK�LWV�LQGHSHQGHQW�ELOLQJXDO�VFKRROLQJ�V\VWHP�ZKHUH�7LEHWDQV�ZRXOG�KDYH�WKHLU�RZQ�VHOI�DGPLQLVWHUHG�VFKRROV�XVLQJ�WKHLU�PRWKHU�WRQJXH�DQG�OHDUQ�&KLQHVH�DV�a foreign language.

%RWK�7LEHWDQV�DQG�&KLQHVH�HWKQLFLWLHV�ZRXOG�EH�UHSUHVHQWHG�E\�ODZ�LQ�WKH�JRY�HUQPHQW�DQG�SDUOLDPHQW��0RQH\�IRU�FXOWXUDO�DQG�HGXFDWLRQDO�LVVXHV��LQFOXGLQJ�KHUL�tage protection, would be distributed among the two ethnicities according to census SHUFHQWDJHV��7KH� QDWLRQDO� JRYHUQPHQW� RI�&KLQD�ZRXOG� NHHS� RYHUDOO� VRYHUHLJQW\��DQG�WD[HV�FROOHFWHG�ZLWKLQ�7LEHW�ZRXOG�EHORQJ�H[FOXVLYHO\�WR�WKH�DXWRQRPRXV�UHJLRQ�and be distributed among the ethnic groups, again according to population.

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$OWKRXJK�&KLQD�ZRXOG�FRQWLQXH�WR�FRQWURO�WKH�PLOLWDU\�WR�VHFXUH�WKH�ERUGHUV��7L�EHW�ZRXOG�KDYH�LWV�RZQ�SROLFH�IRUFH�UHVSRQVLEOH�IRU�GRPHVWLF�VHFXULW\��7LEHW�ZRXOG�KDYH�SULPDU\�OHJLVODWLYH�SRZHUV�LQ�WKH�ILHOGV�RI�DJULFXOWXUDO�GHYHORSPHQW��HQYLURQ�PHQW�� ILVKLQJ�DQG�KXQWLQJ��KRXVLQJ� �ERWK�SXEOLF�DQG�SULYDWH��� LQGXVWU\�� WUDQVSRUW��GHPRJUDSKLF�GHYHORSPHQW��DQG�WRXULVP��DPRQJ�RWKHUV��/DVW�EXW�QRW�OHDVW��WKH�DXWRQ�omous government of Tibet would be entitled to contain further immigration from China, following the outcome of negotiations between its resident ethnic groups. 7KH�UHVSHFWLYH�DJUHHPHQWV�FRXOG�EH�VXSHUYLVHG�E\�7LEHW¶V�QHXWUDO�QHLJKERUV�VXFK�DV�,QGLD��IROORZLQJ�WKH�SUDFWLFH�RI�VXSHUYLVLRQ�DQG�JXDUDQWHH�RI�WKH�6RXWK�7\URO�PRGHO�LQ�,WDO\�E\�DGMDFHQW�$XVWULD����6XFK�D�³JUHDWHU´�DUUDQJHPHQW�FRXOG�LQ�WXUQ�GHFLVLYHO\�KHOS�WR�LPSURYH�&KLQHVH�UHODWLRQV�ZLWK�,QGLD�DQG�LWV�RWKHU����QHLJKERULQJ�QDWLRQV�DQG�WKXV�VHUYH�DV�D� WUXVW�EXLOGLQJ�PHDVXUH�ZLWK�SRVLWLYH� ORQJ�WHUP�HIIHFWV�RQ� WKH�geopolitics of the region.

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Six Problem Clusters

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)LUVW��ERWK�8\JKXUV�DQG�7LEHWDQV�DUH��XQOLNH�WKH�WZR�PLQRULWLHV�LQ�6RXWK�7\URO�ZKR�PDNH�XS�WKH�PDMRULW\�LQ�WKHLU�DXWRQRPRXV�SURYLQFH��PLQRULWLHV�RQ�WKHLU�RZQ�WHUULWRULHV��7KH�8LJKXUV�FRXQW� IRU��������LQ�;LQMLDQJ�SURYLQFH��ZLWK�RWKHU�HWKQLF�PLQRULWLHV�XS�WR��������DQG�WKH�+DQ�&KLQHVH�������7KH�7LEHWDQV�DPRXQW�WR��������LQ�7LEHW�DQG�WKH�&KLQHVH�WR���������DOWKRXJK�DFFRUGLQJ�WR�RIILFLDO�VWDWLVWLFV�E\�WKH�&KLQHVH�JRYHUQPHQW��SHUFHQWDJHV�PD\�YDU\���7KH�IDFW�RI�EHLQJ�D�PLQRULW\�LQ�D�VHOI�JRYHUQHG�WHUULWRU\�VXFK�DV�D�SRWHQWLDOO\�DXWRQRPRXV�7LEHW�RI�WKH�IXWXUH�FRXOG�FRP�plicate, if not compromise instruments including ethnic proportion decree and is�VXHV�RI�VHOI�JRYHUQDQFH�VXFK�DV�DXWRQRPRXV�WD[DWLRQ��WKH�SURSRUWLRQDO�GLVWULEXWLRQ�RI�FXOWXUDO�DQG�VFKRROLQJ�PRQH\��DV�ZHOO�DV�WKH�DVVLJQPHQW�RI�DGPLQLVWUDWLYH�DQG�governmental posts, because in all of these issues the Chinese would have the ma�MRULW\��,Q�;LQMLDQJ�SURYLQFH��D�GHDO�FRXOG�SUREDEO\�ZRUN�LI�WKH�PLQRULWLHV�FRPELQH�

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Second, no outer protecting power is involved in the autonomization process FRPSDUDEOH�WR�$XVWULD�LQ�WKH�FDVH�RI�WKH�6RXWK�7\UROHDQV��DQG�PRVW�SUREDEO\�QHLWKHU�ZLOO�EH�LQ�WKH�QHDU�IXWXUH��%HFDXVH�&KLQD¶V�ZHLJKW�LV�WRR�ELJ��QRQH�RI�LWV����QHLJK�ERUV�ZLOO�DFWLYHO\�VHHN�WR�H[HUW�SRVLWLYH�LQIOXHQFH�RQ�DQ\�GRPHVWLF�GLIIHUHQWLDWLRQ�SURFHVV��ZLWK�WKH�H[FHSWLRQ�RI�D�SRWHQWLDO�ZHDN�KHOS�IURP�,QGLD�RQO\�GHSHQGLQJ�RQ�FRQWH[W�DQG�VLWXDWLRQ��,I�DXWRQRPL]DWLRQ�LV�WKH�JRDO��WKH�ZLOO�RI�&KLQD¶V�QHZ�JRYHUQ�PHQW�ZLOO�EH�GHFLVLYH��DQG�WKH�RQO\�SRVLWLYH�VXVWHQDQFH�IURP�WKH�RXWVLGH�PD\�FRPH�not from nation states, but from international and global bodies such as the United 1DWLRQV�

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Fifth, there is a different culture of thinking nation, the individual, subgroups of VRFLHW\��HWKQLFLW\��DQG�DXWKRULW\�LQ�&KLQD�DV�FRPSDUHG�ZLWK�WKH�:HVW��7KLV�LV�GXH�WR�&RQIXFLDQLVP�DQG��PRUH�LPSRUWDQWO\��WKH�ODFN�RI�&KLQHVH�GHPRFUDF\��,Q�IDFW��RQH�RI�WKH�FUXFLDO�SUHUHTXLVLWHV�IRU�WKH�VROXWLRQ�RI�WKH�6RXWK�7\URO�GLVSXWH�ZDV�WKDW�DOO�SRZHUV�WKDW�SDUWLFLSDWHG�LQ�WKH�QHJRWLDWLRQ��LQFOXGLQJ�LQ�SDUWLFXODU�,WDO\�DQG�$XVWULD��were working democracies. Democracies don’t fight each other or their citizens, but QHJRWLDWH��&KLQD�LV�QR�GHPRFUDF\�WR�WKH�SUHVHQW�GD\��DQG�ZLOO�XQOLNHO\�EHFRPH�RQH�VRRQ��7KLV�LV�SUREDEO\�WKH�PDLQ�SUREOHP�IRU�LWV�PLQRULWLHV��PRUH�LPSRUWDQW�WKDQ�DOO�single procedural and institutional issues.

6L[WK��DQG�ODVW���WKHUH�LV�D�JOREDO�WUHQG�DZD\�IURP�JURXS�ULJKWV�WRZDUGV�LQGLYLG�XDO�ULJKWV�WULJJHUHG�E\�PRGHUQL]DWLRQ�DQG�JURZLQJ�WUDQVQDWLRQDO�DQG�WUDQVFXOWXUDO�LQWHUGHSHQGHQF\��,W�JRHV�DJDLQVW�WKH�VLPXOWDQHRXV�WUHQG�WRZDUGV�HWKQRQDWLRQDOLVP�DQG�PDNHV�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�DJUHHPHQWV�RQ�WKH�LVVXH�QRW�H[DFWO\�HDVLHU�

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70 �� 7KH�(WKQRQDWLRQDOLVP�3UREOHP

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7KLV�LV�DOVR�WKH�UHDVRQ�ZK\�VHFRQG��WKH�LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ�RI�DQ\�VXFK²RU�VLPL�ODU²PRGHO�RI�SDFLILFDWLRQ�RQ�&KLQHVH�WHUULWRU\�PD\�QRW�EH�D�ODVWLQJ�VROXWLRQ�DV�LQ�6RXWK�7\URO��EXW�UDWKHU�D�VWDUWLQJ�SRLQW�WR�PDNH�WKH�PRVW�RXW�RI�D�GLIILFXOW�VLWXDWLRQ�

,Q�IDFW��WKH�6RXWK�7\URO�H[DPSOH�FRXOG�EH�XVHG�DV�D�PRGHO�IRU�D�WUDQVLWLRQ�SKDVH�RQO\�WUDQVLWRU\�DQG�WHPSRUDULO\��7KH�HIIHFWV�ZRXOG�QHYHUWKHOHVV�EH�PXOWLSOH��7KH\�would lead to a better identification of the minorities with a more differentiated &KLQHVH�RYHUDOO�DUUDQJHPHQW��ZKLFK�PD\�EH�XQDYRLGDEOH�DQ\ZD\�LQ�VXFK�D�KXJH�nation in the long term the more it modernizes, and this would lead to more effi�FLHQF\�DQG�D�QRWLFHDEOH�UHGXFWLRQ�RI�FRQIOLFW��IDFLOLWDWLQJ�DQG�IXUWKHU�HPSRZHULQJ�China’s development.

Outlook: Towards a New Pragmatism?

What is the outlook?8QIRUWXQDWHO\�� WKH�QHZ�&KLQHVH�JRYHUQPHQW�KDVQ¶W�RSHQO\�PDQLIHVWHG� WKH�ZLOO� WR�

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:KDW�LV�QHHGHG�QRZ�LV�ILUVW�RI�DOO²DQG�PRVW�LPSRUWDQW²D�QHZ�SUDJPDWLVP�IURP�all sides involved. Given its outstanding monolithic power, the challenge is in the first place to the new Communist Chinese government which has the credits and WKH�KLVWRULF�ZLQGRZ�WR�SDFLI\�LWV�PLQRULW\�UHJLRQV�LQ�RUGHU�WR�FKDQJH�WKLQJV�IRU�WKH�better. Xi Jinping shouldn’t waste this chance because it will not be there forever, EXW�PRVW�SUREDEO\�EH�OLPLWHG�WR�DQ�FHUWDLQ�WLPH�ZLQGRZ��7R�JLYH�WKH�8\JKXUV�DQG�WKH�7LEHWDQV�DQG�PD\EH�DOVR�RWKHU�HWKQLF�JURXSV�DXWRQRPLHV�WKDW�GHVHUYH�WKH�QDPH�ZRXOG�OLEHUDWH�&KLQD�IURP�D�SHUPDQHQW�VSLQH�LQ�LWV�IODQN��DQG�SURYH�WR�WKH�PDQ\�domestic and foreign critics that the new government has started a new phase of reconciliation and development. It thus would be in China’s best interest.

$OWKRXJK�VXFK�D�JUDQG�VROXWLRQ�PLJKW�QRW�EH�IXOO\�VDWLVIDFWRU\�IRU�HLWKHU�SDUW\�LQYROYHG��EHFDXVH�LW�QHFHVVDULO\�UHOLHV�RQ�FRPSURPLVH�IURP�DOO�QHJRWLDWLQJ�SDUWQHUV��it could provide a rational model of renewal and progress in order to become an at OHDVW�WHPSRUDU\�ZLQ±ZLQ�DUUDQJHPHQW�IRU�DOO�VLGHV���

7KH�6RXWK�7\URO�DXWRQRP\�PRGHO�PD\�SURYLGH�SURYHQ�VWHSV�WR�PRYH�WKH�VLWXD�tion in Xinjiang and Tibet forward. The new heads of the Chinese government are, as far as we can assume, not dreamers but inclined towards realistic models of paci�ILFDWLRQ�DQG�MRLQW�GHYHORSPHQW��7KH�&KLQHVH��WKH�8\JKXU�UHSUHVHQWDWLYHV��DQG�WKH�

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71

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73

Chapter 5China’s New Foreign Policy and the West: The Case of the European Debt Crisis

Roland Benedikter and Jae-Seung Lee

China’s new self-confidence on the international stage is mirrored by its new for-eign policy rhetoric. Since bilateral free trade agreements with Island in April 20131 and, more importantly, with Switzerland in July 20132 after two years of intense negotiations, have created spearheads in Europe’s center, many on the old continent fear that in the long term, not only national debts, but parts of the entrepreneurial and infrastructural core of Europe’s economic and technological performance may be step by step bought up by China, a nation with more than one and a half times the population of the Western nations combined and eager to reach similar levels of innovation.3 And this, so these critics warn, could happen also to the United States, the biggest foreign debtor to China: a slow, but steady sell-out of crown jewels to China’s banks and its globally operating, government-controlled corporations. But does China really want to “buy up the West”?

1 A. Trotman: Iceland first European country to sign free trade agreement with China. In: The Telegraph London, 15 April 2013.2 Xinhuanet: China, Switzerland ink free trade agreement, July 06, 2013, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-07/06/c_132517635.htm.3 K. Mahbubani: The New Asian Hemisphere: The Irresistible Shift of Global Power to the East, New York: Public Affairs 2008.

This chapter first appeared as the lead story under the title: “Does China Want to Buy Up Europe? Europe’s Crisis and China’s Reluctant Rise” in The European Business Review London. March/April 2012 edition, London 2012, pp. 30–31.

R. Benedikter, V. Nowotny, China’s Road Ahead, SpringerBriefs in Political Science, DOI 10.1007/978-1-4614-9363-1_5, © The Author(s) 2014

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The New Supremacy Rhetoric, Understatement Chinese

Style: “China Doesn’t Want to Buy up Europe”

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7KH� YLVLW� ZDV�� UHPDUNDEO\�� MXVW� RQH� RI� IRXU� ELODWHUDO� JRYHUQPHQWDO� VXPPLWV�between Chancellor Merkel, foreign affairs minister Guido Westerwelle and high�HVW�UDQNLQJ�&KLQHVH�RIILFLDOV�LQ�RQH�DQG�WKH�VDPH�\HDU��XQGHUVFRULQJ�WKH�UDSLGO\�H[�SDQGLQJ�QHZ�³VSHFLDO�UHODWLRQVKLS´�EHWZHHQ�WKH�(XUR]RQH¶V�OHDGLQJ�SRZHU�DQG�WKH�ULVLQJ�*���JLDQW���$OWKRXJK�XQXVXDO� LQ� LQWHUQDWLRQDO�GLSORPDF\��&KLQHVH�RIILFLDOV�REYLRXVO\�IHOW�VXFK�D�VWDWHPHQW�ZDV�QHHGHG�WR�DVVXDJH�FRQFHUQV�RYHU�SRWHQWLDO�&KL�QHVH�LQYHVWPHQW�LQ�WKH�(XUR]RQH¶V�GHEW�FULVLV��7KH�IDFW�WKDW�WKH�&KLQHVH�JRYHUQPHQW�felt urged to underscore “that China doesn’t have this intention, and neither has it WKH�FDSDFLW\´��VKHG�OLJKW�RQ�WKH�JURZLQJ�DPELJXLW\�RI�&KLQD±(XURSH�UHODWLRQVKLSV�

China and the Western Crisis

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��A Reluctant Rise?

Mixed Feelings, Ambiguous Tactics

7R�VD\�WKDW�ERWK�(XURSH�DQG�&KLQD�KDYH�PL[HG�IHHOLQJV�DERXW�WKLV�DLG�LV�DQ�XQGHU�statement. Both sides have been hesitating for months while discussing plans of FRRSHUDWLRQ�DQG�DLG��ZKLFK�LQ�WXUQ�KDV�LURQLFDOO\�KXUW� WKHLU�UHODWLRQVKLS��&KLQD�LV�VHHQ�DV�ERWK�D�UHVFXHU�DQG�D�WKUHDW�E\�(XURSHDQV�ZKR�DUH�LQ�GHVSHUDWH�QHHG�RI�IXQGV�EXW�UHPDLQ�DW�WKH�VDPH�WLPH�ZRUULHG�DERXW�ORVLQJ�WKHLU�LQGHSHQGHQFH�DQG�VHFXULW\��2Q�WKH�RWKHU�KDQG��&KLQD�DOVR�VHHPV�XQGHFLGHG��2Q�'HFHPEHU��QG��������&KLQD�RIILFLDOO\�UHIXVHG�WR�SDUWLFLSDWH�LQ�WKH�(XUR�5HVFXH�)XQGV�ZLWK�LWV�IRUHLJQ�H[FKDQJH�and gold reserve, pointing out that its constitutional law forbids the Chinese govern�PHQW�HYHQ�WR�XVH�LW�WR�PLWLJDWH�WKHLU�RZQ�ULVLQJ�VRFLDO�LQHTXDOLW\�

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A Reluctant Rise?

But despite this favorable constellation, most Chinese are still worried about getting LQYROYHG�LQ�WKH�YRODWLOH�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�ILQDQFLDO�V\VWHP��ZKLFK�LV�DOOHJHGO\�FRQWUROOHG�E\�WKH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV�DQG�D�IHZ�(XURSHDQ�FRXQWULHV

In order to understand China’s hesitation towards a more serious institutional LQYROYHPHQW� LQ� WKH� (XURSHDQ� GHEW� FULVLV�� ZH� KDYH� WR� ORRN� EH\RQG� WKHLU� RIILFLDO�ZRUGLQJV��,W�LV�LPSRUWDQW�WR�IHHO�WKH�³WHPSHUDWXUH´�RI�WKH�LVVXH�DPRQJ�WKH�&KLQHVH�HOLWHV��LQWHOOHFWXDOV��DQG�WKH�SXEOLF��6LQFH�WKH�YRODWLOH�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�ILQDQFLDO�V\VWHP�LV�DOOHJHGO\�VWLOO�FRQWUROOHG�E\�WKH�86�DQG�D�IHZ�(XURSHDQ�FRXQWULHV��PDQ\�&KLQHVH�EHOLHYH�WKH�GDQJHU�RI�SOD\LQJ�DQ�RSHQ��OLEHUDO�ILQDQFLDO�JDPH�ZLWK�WKH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV�DQG�(XURSH�FDQQRW�EH�XQGHUHVWLPDWHG��,I�&KLQD�RSHQV�LWV�ILQDQFLDO�GRRU�WRR�ZLGHO\��

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Seen overall, China wants to control its pace of financial and economic liber�alization while maintaining solid economic and trade growth. The Golden Dragon wants to grow up in a quiet lake, not in the troubled waters of international financial competition.

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Europe’s Weakness Is Not in China’s Interest

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77What does this mean in a nutshell?

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ZDQW�WR�GRPLQDWH�(XURSH�RU�$PHULFD�E\�EX\LQJ�XS�WKHLU�GHEWV��:KDW�&KLQD�ZDQWV�LV�favorable conditions for its rise.

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79

Chapter 6China and Its Neighbors: How to Sustain Democracy and Democratization in the Pacific? The Case of South Korea

Roland Benedikter

China’s “new” foreign policy is concentrating, for the time being, mainly on its own geopolitical zone, i.e. East and South East Asia. In so doing through a decisively more expansive gesture, it is stirring up the existing order and scaring most of its neighbors, especially those, who are the most developed and as such crucial allies of the global alliance of democracies - like South Korea.

As Columbia University’s Ian Bremmer rightly analyzes, China’s neighbor South Korea is a “leading emerging power.”1 Exemplary for other Asian nations in the expanding gravitational sphere of China, paradoxically both its competition with and dependency on China are growing simultaneously.

This is creating a contradictory, if not torn, situation, which is characteristic for many countries in present China’s neighborhood. South Korea is a democracy, al-lied with the United States and the global family of open societies. On the other hand, it is increasingly—and unavoidably—attracted by the growing geopolitical influence of China, disregarding the fact that this could also lead, in case of conflict, to a stronger inclination towards China’s historic geopolitical antipode, India:

China’s growing power and muscle-flexing vis-à-vis its neighbors have now resulted in a regional balancing effort… This is a time of great turmoil in the Asian strategic landscape, and India is trying to make itself relevant to the regional states… India’s role becomes critical in (the) evolving balance of power… (since it) is emerging as a serious player in the Asian strategic landscape as smaller states in East Asia reach out to it for trade, diplo-macy and, potentially, as a key regional balancer… China is too big and too powerful to be ignored by the regional states. But the states in China’s vicinity are now seeking to expand their strategic space by reaching out to other regional and global powers. Smaller states in the region are now looking to India to act as a balancer in view of China’s growing influence and America’s anticipated retrenchment from the region in the near future, while larger states see India as an attractive engine for regional growth… Great power politics in the region have only just begun.2

1 I. Bremmer: Every Nation for Itself. Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World, Portfolio Penguin 2012, p. 70.2 Harsh V. Pant: Wary of China’s growing influence, its southern neighbors court India. In: The Daily Star, November 03, 2011, p. 7.

R. Benedikter, V. Nowotny, China’s Road Ahead, SpringerBriefs in Political Science, DOI 10.1007/978-1-4614-9363-1_6, © The Author(s) 2014

80 �� &KLQD�DQG�,WV�1HLJKERUV

A New “Great Game”

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��,��%UHPPHU��ORF�FLW���SS�����±������5��:HLW]��1HUYRXV�1HLJKERUV��&KLQD�)LQGV�$�6SKHUH� RI� ,QIOXHQFH�� ,Q��:RUOG�$IIDLUV� -RXUQDO��0DUFK�$SULO� ������ KWWS���ZZZ�ZRUOGDIIDLUVMRXUQDO�RUJ�DUWLFOH�QHUYRXV�QHLJKERUV�FKLQD�ILQGV�VSKHUH�LQIOXHQFH���*��*��&KDQJ��7KH�3DUW\¶V�2YHU��&KLQD¶V�(QGJDPH��,Q��:RUOG�$IIDLUV�-RXUQDO��0DUFK�$SULO�������KWWS���ZZZ�ZRUOGDIIDLUVMRXUQDO�RUJ�DUWLFOH�SDUW\V�RYHU�FKLQDV�HQGJDPH�

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6RXWK�.RUHD�LV�LQ�PDQ\�ZD\V�DOLJQHG�ZLWK�WKLV�VWUDWHJ\��LI�QRW�RQH�RI�LWV�NH\�SOD\�HUV��6RXWK�.RUHD�LV�IRUFHG�WR�SOD\�RXW�D�GRXEOH�VWUDWHJ\�EHWZHHQ�WKH�*���SRZHUV�WKH�United States and China, first of all due to its hopes for a positive influence of China RQ�WKH�1RUWK�.RUHD�TXHVWLRQ��LQWR�ZKLFK�WKH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV�LV�FORVHO\��EXW�LQ�D�UDWKHU�HVWUDQJHG�ZD\��LQYROYHG���%XW�WKHUH�DUH�RWKHU�UHDVRQV�WRR��$V�<RQVHL�8QLYHUVLW\¶V�+DQ�6XN�KHH�XQGHUVFRUHV�

,Q�$XJXVW�������6RXWK�.RUHD�DQG�&KLQD�FHOHEUDWHG�WKHLU� WZHQWLHWK�DQQLYHUVDU\�RI�GLSOR�matic normalization. During the past two decades, the two states have advanced their politi�cal, economic, diplomatic, and cultural relations with unprecedented speed and scope. This GHYHORSPHQW�KDV�EHHQ�GULYHQ�E\�H[SDQGLQJ�ELODWHUDO�HFRQRPLF�FRRSHUDWLRQ�DQG�LWV�UHVXOWLQJ�EHQHILWV��7UDGH�EHWZHHQ�WKH�WZR�FRXQWULHV�KDV� LQFUHDVHG�DSSUR[LPDWHO\�WKLUW\�ILYH�WLPHV��IURP��������ELOOLRQ�LQ������WR����������ELOOLRQ�LQ�������&XUUHQWO\��&KLQD�LV�6RXWK�.RUHD¶V�largest trading partner and South Korea is China’s third largest.

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The result is a strategic dilemma between the United States and China, the same that most other neighbors of rising China are facing:

7UDGLWLRQDOO\��6RXWK�.RUHD�KDV�EHHQ�D�FORVH�8�6��DOO\��7KH�6RXWK�.RUHD�8�6��DOOLDQFH�KDV�been a major factor in South Korea’s peace and political and economic success. Due to Chi�QD¶V�FRQVLVWHQW�ULVH��PDUNHW�JURZWK��DQG�VL]H��KRZHYHU��6RXWK�.RUHD�LV�LQFUHDVLQJO\�GHSHQ�GHQW�RQ�&KLQD¶V�HFRQRP\��&RQVHTXHQWO\��6RXWK�.RUHD�KDV�WR�GXDOO\�PDQDJH�LWV�VHFXULW\��ZKLFK�LV�JURXQGHG�LQ�WKH�6RXWK�.RUHD�8�6��DOOLDQFH��DQG�LWV�HFRQRPLF�ZHOO�EHLQJ��ZKLFK�LV�GHSHQGHQW�RQ�WKH�6RXWK�.RUHD�&KLQD�VWUDWHJLF�FRRSHUDWLYH�SDUWQHUVKLS��7KH�6RXWK�.RUHDQ�SXEOLF�WHQGV�WR�IDYRU�WKH�GLSORPDWLF�VWUDWHJ\�RI�PDQDJLQJ�ERWK�ELODWHUDO�UHODWLRQVKLSV�KDU�PRQLRXVO\��6RXWK�.RUHDQV�EHOLHYH�WKDW�LW�LV�DJDLQVW�WKHLU�QDWLRQDO�LQWHUHVW�WR�SURPRWH�RQH�UHODWLRQVKLS�DW� WKH�H[SHQVH�RI� WKH�RWKHU«�8QKDSS\�ZLWK�6RXWK�.RUHD¶V�HPSKDVLV�RQ� LWV�relationship with the United States, China has often questioned whether the South Korean JRYHUQPHQW�FDQ�SRVVLEO\�PDQDJH�WKH�LQFRPSDWLELOLW\�EHWZHHQ�WKH�6RXWK�.RUHDQ�&KLQHVH�µVWUDWHJLF�SDUWQHUVKLS¶�DQG�WKH�6RXWK�.RUHDQ�8�6��µVWUDWHJLF�DOOLDQFH�¶�&KLQD¶V�JURZLQJ�FULW�LFLVP�RI�6RXWK�.RUHD¶V�UHODWLRQVKLS�ZLWK�WKH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV�KDV�WULJJHUHG�GHEDWHV«�DERXW�whether the foundation of the relationship with the United States lies in common demo�FUDWLF�YDOXHV�RU� LV� VLPSO\�D� UHIOHFWLRQ�RI�D� WHPSRUDU\�FRQYHUJHQFH�RI� VWUDWHJLF� LQWHUHVWV��$GYRFDWHV�RI�WKH�52.�8�6��DOOLDQFH�DUJXH�WKDW�WKH�ELODWHUDO�UHODWLRQVKLS�LV�EDVHG�RQ�VKDUHG�EHOLHIV� LQ� GHPRFUDF\� DQG� KXPDQ� ULJKWV� DQG� VKRXOG� QRW� EH� YLHZHG� DV� D� WKUHDW� WR�&KLQD��while critics argue that strategic cooperation with the United States need not entail efforts WR�H[SRUW�YDOXHV��ZKLFK�&KLQD�PD\�SHUFHLYH�DV�WKUHDWHQLQJ��+RZHYHU��VXVWDLQLQJ�IULHQGO\�relations with both powers has proven difficult.8

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6XPPLQJ�XS� WKH�GLIIHUHQW� IDFHWV� RI� DQ� LQFUHDVLQJO\� FRPSOH[� VLWXDWLRQ��%UHPPHU�concludes:

+RW� VSRWV� DQG� MRVWOLQJ�SRZHUV� DVLGH�� WKH�FHQWUDO�SUREOHP� LQ�$VLD� LV� WKDW�PDQ\�FRXQWULHV�ZDQW�WR�PDLQWDLQ�VHFXULW\�WLHV�ZLWK�WKH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV�HYHQ�DV�WKH\�H[SDQG�WUDGH�UHODWLRQV�with China. That isn’t sustainable, because Beijing’s economic influence gives Chinese SROLF\PDNHUV�HYHU�LQFUHDVLQJ�OHYHUDJH�ZLWK�WKHVH�JRYHUQPHQWV��$V�&KLQD¶V�FRQVXPHU�PDU�NHWV�WDNH�RQ�DGGHG�ZHLJKW�DQG�$PHULFDQV�VHH�WKHLU�SXUFKDVLQJ�SRZHU�UHGXFHG��(DVW�$VLDQ�FRXQWULHV�DUH�UXVKLQJ�WR�H[SDQG�WUDGH�WLHV�ZLWK�RQH�DQRWKHU�DQG�ZLWK�&KLQD��,Q�IDFW��DFFRUG�LQJ�WR�;LQKXD��LQ������&KLQD�EHFDPH�WKH�ODUJHVW�WUDGLQJ�SDUWQHU�DQG�VLQJOH�ELJJHVW�H[SRUW�market for Southeast Asian countries. China’s agreement with members of the Association RI�6RXWKHDVW�$VLDQ�1DWLRQV��ZKLFK�ZHQW�LQWR�HIIHFW�LQ�������LQYROYHV�PRUH�SHRSOH�WKDQ�DQ\�RWKHU�WUDGH�GHDO�LQ�KLVWRU\��:DVKLQJWRQ�LV�ORVLQJ�OHYHUDJH�RQ�PRUH�WKDQ�MXVW�WUDGH��*LYHQ�new limits on America’s means and the scale of its domestic challenges, officials in Japan, 6RXWK�.RUHD��6LQJDSRUH��,QGRQHVLD��7KDLODQG��DQG�RWKHU�8�6��IULHQGO\�VWDWHV�FDQ�EH�H[FXVHG�IRU�TXHVWLRQLQJ�$PHULFD¶V�ORQJ�WHUP�VWD\LQJ�SRZHU��

6LPLODUO\��7UR\�6WDQJDURQH�RI�WKH�.RUHD�(FRQRPLF�,QVWLWXWH�RI�$PHULFD�GHSLFWV�D�not too distant future scenario in China’s surrounding nations where

D�VHULHV�RI�IUHH�WUDGH�DJUHHPHQWV��SULPDULO\�EHWZHHQ�&KLQD��6RXWK�.RUHD�DQG�-DSDQ��VKRXOG�KHOS�WR�OD\�WKH�JURXQGZRUN�IRU�D�FRPPRQ�VHW�RI�UXOHV�DQG�VWDQGDUGV�IRU�WKH�UHJLRQ�WR�GHHSHQ�HFRQRPLF�LQWHJUDWLRQ��7ZR�ZD\�WUDGH�WRGD\�RXWVWULSV�6RXWK�.RUHD¶V�FRPELQHG�WUDGH�ZLWK�WKH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV�DQG�-DSDQ«�(FRQRPLF� WLHV�VKRXOG�RQO\�FRQWLQXH� WR�JURZ�LQ� WKH�\HDUV�DKHDG�DV�&KLQD�VKLIWV�LWV�HFRQRP\�WRZDUGV�JUHDWHU�OHYHOV�RI�GRPHVWLF�FRQVXPSWLRQ��&XU�UHQWO\��PXFK�RI�6RXWK�.RUHD¶V�WUDGH�ZLWK�&KLQD�LV�SURFHVVLQJ�WUDGH��$V�&KLQD�VKLIWV�WRZDUGV�more domestic consumption additional opportunities for South Korean producers to sell LQWR�&KLQD¶V�GRPHVWLF�PDUNHW�ZLOO�GHYHORS«�2I�DOO�RI�WKH�UHODWLRQVKLSV�LQ�1RUWKHDVW�$VLD��WKH� RQH� EHWZHHQ� 6RXWK�.RUHD� DQG� &KLQD�PD\� EH� WKH�PRVW� FRPSOH[��:KLOH� WKH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV� UHPDLQV�6RXWK�.RUHD¶V�SULPDU\� VHFXULW\�SDUWQHU��6RXWK�.RUHD¶V� HFRQRPLF�JURZWK�KDV�EHFRPH�LQFUHDVLQJO\�WLHG�WR�&KLQD¶V�RZQ�HFRQRPLF�IRUWXQHV��6LPLODUO\��UHDO�SURJUHVV�RQ�1RUWK�.RUHD�UHTXLUHV�WKH�FRRSHUDWLYH�LQYROYHPHQW�RI�&KLQD��,I��FXUUHQW�6RXWK�.RUHD¶V�SUHVLGHQW��3DUN¶V�DSSURDFK�LV�DEOH�WR�LPSURYH�UHODWLRQV�ZLWK�&KLQD�ZKLOH�PDLQWDLQLQJ�VWURQJ�WLHV�ZLWK�WKH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV��VKH�ZLOO�QRW�RQO\�KDYH�DFKLHYHG�ZKDW�KHU�UHFHQW�SUHGHFHVVRUV�KDYH�QRW��EXW�DOVR�KDYH�LPSURYHG�6RXWK�.RUHD¶V�HFRQRPLF�DQG�VHFXULW\�SURVSHFWV�10

Three Aspects to Consider

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China’s Pacific Expansion

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Despite this outreach, most of China’s attention is dedicated to its neighbors. So KRZ�VKRXOG�WKH�:HVW�UHDFW�WR�WKLV�VLWXDWLRQ�RI�VLOHQW��EXW�GHHS�UHDFKLQJ�WUDQVIRUPD�WLRQ�XQGHUZD\�DPRQJ�&KLQD¶V�QHLJKERUV��SDUWLFXODUO\�DPRQJ�WKRVH�WKDW�DUH�GHPRF�racies and Western allies?

Growing Inequality and the Crisis of Economic Idealism

in East Asia: An Undervalued Cornerstone of the Western

Pacific Strategy

In answering these questions, the United States from the start of the Barack Obama HUD�RQ� -DQXDU\����� �����KDV� LPSOHPHQWHG� DQ� ³$VLD� ILUVW´� VWUDWHJ\��7KLV� VWUDWHJ\�GHSDUWV�IURP�WKH�DVVXPSWLRQ�WKDW�WKH�IXWXUH�RI�$PHULFD�ZLOO�EH�LQFUHDVLQJO\�GHSHQ�dent on the economic and political development in the Pacific, in particular on the interrelation between China and the United States and its democratic Asian allies RQ�WKH�RWKHU�KDQG��7KH�JUDQG�VWUDWHJ\�RI�EDODQFLQJ�GHPRFUDWLF�DQG�QRQGHPRFUDWLF�trajectories in the Pacific is centered on the intensification of economic, diplomatic, DQG�PLOLWDU\�FRRSHUDWLRQ�RI�WKH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV�ZLWK�FRXQWULHV�VXFK�DV�.RUHD��-DSDQ��Taiwan, and the Philippines.

At the same time, efforts towards broadening American coalitions in Asia are un�GHUZD\��,W�ZDV�QR�FRLQFLGHQFH�WKDW�LPPHGLDWHO\�DIWHU�KLV�UH�HOHFWLRQ�RQ�1RYHPEHU���������2EDPD�DQQRXQFHG�D�IRXU�GD\�WULS�WR�%XUPD��7KDLODQG��DQG�/DRV�LQ�DQ�HI�IRUW�WR�VWUHQJWKHQ�WLHV�ZLWK�6RXWK(DVW�$VLDQ�QDWLRQV��ZLWK�WKH�DLP�RI�FRQWDLQLQJ�WKH�growing Chinese influence in the region and improving cooperation among Pacific democracies.

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The—Alleged—Shift from the West to the East

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Economic and Social Change in East Asia

In this situation, Asian democracies have taken over the lead in implementing ide�DOLVWLF�HFRQRPLF�YDOXHV�DQG�IRVWHULQJ�SRVW�PDWHULDOLVWLF�FRKRUWV�LQ�WKHLU�SRSXODWLRQV��,QGHHG��WKH\�KDYH�VXVWDLQHG�WKHP�IRU�TXLWH�D�IHZ�\HDUV�QRZ�

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Growing Inequality and the Decline of Socioeconomic

Idealism in East Asia’s Democracies

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Second, as a consequence there is a growing ideological polarization of Korean VRFLHW\�ZKLFK�PLUURUV�LWV�GHHSHQLQJ�VRFLDO�VSOLW�DPRQJ�FRQVHUYDWLYHV��OLEHUDOV��DQG�the left. This polarization leads to a less cooperative overall mindset in general, but LW�DOVR�OHDGV�WR�D�SRODUL]DWLRQ�ZLWKLQ�SRVW�PDWHULDOLVWV�WKHPVHOYHV�ZKR�DUH�VHSDUDWLQJ�LQWR�D�OHIWLVW��UDGLFDO�DQWL�JRYHUQPHQW�DQG�³UHYROXWLRQDU\´�IDFWLRQ�RQ�WKH�RQH�KDQG�DQG�LQWR�D�FRQVHUYDWLYH��QHR�UHOLJLRXV�IDFWLRQ��LQFOLQHG�UDWKHU�WRZDUGV�VWDELOLW\�WKDQ�WRZDUGV�FRRSHUDWLRQ��7KH�UHVXOWLQJ�WUHQG�WRZDUGV�WKH�UHWXUQ�RI�KLHUDUFK\�DQG�ROG�VW\OH�³FRPPXQLWDULDQLVP�´�LQWHUSUHWHG�DV�FRQIRUPLVP��VKRZV�LWVHOI��IRU�H[DPSOH��LQ�the authoritarian nostalgia that has affected parts of the Korean electorate since the VWDUW�RI�WKH�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�HFRQRPLF�DQG�ILQDQFLDO�FULVHV�LQ��������

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Fifth but not least, the changing regional and geopolitical balances between de�mocracies and rising authoritarian nations like China influence Korean economic LGHDOLVP��7KH�EDWWOH�EHWZHHQ�GHPRFUDFLHV�DQG�QRQGHPRFUDFLHV�ZLOO�EH�WKH�NH\�JORE�DO�EDWWOH�RI�WKH���VW�FHQWXU\��7KLV�LV�QR�ORQJHU�D�YLVLRQ�RI�WKH�IXWXUH��EXW�KDV�DOUHDG\�EHJXQ�ZLWK�D�JOREDO�IRFXV�LQ�$VLD��DV�WKH�86�³3DFLILF�ILUVW´�VWUDWHJ\�KDV�LQGLUHFWO\�underscored.

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Teachings of the Asian Economic Crisis of 1997–1998

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Perspectives: What to Do? The Potential Contribution

of Western Democracies to Stabilizing China’s Neighbors

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In response,The challenge is to harness economic growth to a more equitable distribution of opportu�QLW\�DQG�LQFRPH��0HHWLQJ�WKLV�FKDOOHQJH�UHTXLUHV�SXEOLF�SROLF\�DFWLRQ�RQ�WZR�IURQWV��)LUVW��governments need to mobilize revenues from growth and invest those revenues in the basic services and economic infrastructure that offer poor people greater opportunities. Second, governments need to foster an environment that enables the creation of jobs and more resil�LHQW�OLYHOLKRRGV��VR�WKDW�SRRU�SHRSOH�FDQ�FRQWULEXWH�WR�HFRQRPLF�JURZWK��µSURGXFH¶�WKHLU�ZD\�RXW�RI�SRYHUW\�DQG�VHFXUH�D�JUHDWHU�VKDUH�RI�WKH�EHQHILWV�IURP�JURZWK���

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$V�D�UHVXOW��(XURSH��GHVSLWH�PRUH�WKDQ�VL[�\HDUV�RI�FULVLV��FRQWLQXHV�WR�GLVSOD\�three main strengths:

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&UHDWLYLW\�XVXDOO\�FRPHV�FRPELQHG�ZLWK�WHFKQRORJLFDO�OHDGHUVKLS��DQG�WKLV�LV�ZLWK�RXW� GRXEW� WKH� FDVH�ZLWK� (XURSH� GHVSLWH� DOO� VHWEDFNV��� It is no accident that the PRVW�SURVSHURXV�QDWLRQV�RQ�HDUWK��DFFRUGLQJ�WR�WKH������*OREDO�3URVSHULW\�,QGH[�RI�WKH�/RQGRQ�EDVHG�/HJDWXP�,QVWLWXWH��/,���DUH�WKRVH�ZLWK�WKH�EHVW�VRFLDO�HTXDOLW\�LQGH[��DQG�WKDW�PRVW�RI�WKHP�FRQWLQXH�WR�EH�ORFDWHG�LQ�(XURSH��GHVSLWH�DOO�QHJDWLYH�rhetoric.���7KH�/HJDWXP�,QVWLWXWH�3URVSHULW\�,QGH[�LV�WKH�PRVW�PXOWLGLPHQVLRQDO�DQG�FRPSOHWH��FRPSULVLQJ�HLJKW�GLPHQVLRQV�DQG�LQWHJUDWLQJ�WKHP�WR�DQ�LQWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\�RYHUDOO�MXGJPHQW��HFRQRP\��HQWUHSUHQHXUVKLS��JRYHUQDQFH��HGXFDWLRQ��KHDOWK��VHFX�ULW\��SHUVRQDO�IUHHGRP��DQG�VRFLDO�FDSLWDO���

,W�LV�LPSRUWDQW�KHUH�WR�QRWH�WKH�GLIIHUHQFH�EHWZHHQ�PHUH�³ZHDOWK´�PHDVXUHPHQW�and the much more accurate, integrative, and encompassing concept of “prosper�LW\´�ZKLFK�LQFOXGHV�ZHDOWK��EXW�FRPSULVHV�LW�DV�MXVW�RQH��DOWKRXJK�GHFLVLYH��IDFWRU�DPRQJ�RWKHUV��2QH�IDXOW�RI�WKH�SDVW�QHR�OLEHUDO�GHFDGHV�EHWZHHQ�WKH�����V�DQG�WKH�FULVLV�\HDUV�VLQFH������ZDV�WR�GHILQH�HFRQRPLF�SURJUHVV�WKURXJK�WKH�DFFXPXODWLRQ�RI�ZHDOWK�DORQH��LQ�RUGHU�WR�PDVWHU�WKH�UHVXOWLQJ�JURZLQJ�VRFLDO�LQHTXDOLW\��WKH�LQWHU�QDWLRQDO�FRPPXQLW\�ZLOO�LQGHHG�KDYH�WR�UHWXUQ�WR�WKH�EURDGHU�FRQFHSW�RI�³SURVSHU�LW\´�WR�GUDZ�WKH�PRUH�FRPSOH[��DQG�WKXV�PRUH�DFFXUDWH��SLFWXUH�

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ZKLFK�SRVW�PDWHULDOLVP�FDQ�XQIROG��RU�LV�KLQGHUHG����,Q�RWKHU�ZRUGV��VRFLDO�HTXDOLW\�LV�QRW�RQO\�DQ�REMHFWLYH�UHDOLW\��EXW�LV�DOVR�D�VHOI�IXOILOOLQJ�SURSKHF\��PRUH�WKDQ�RWKHU�IDFWRUV�RI�GHYHORSPHQW��2QFH�LW�LV�SHUFHLYHG�DV�D�KLJK�SULRULW\�JRYHUQPHQWDO�DQG�DGPLQLVWUDWLYH�LVVXH�E\�WKH�SRSXODWLRQ��LW�IRVWHUV�SRVW�PDWHULDOLVW�WUHQGV�ZKLFK�WKHQ��DQG�LQ�WXUQ��VWUHQJWKHQ�WKH�VRFLDO�DJHQGD��$�circulus virtuosus is created in the so�FLDO�SV\FKH��ZKLFK�LQ�WKH�FDVH�RI�HFRQRPLF�LGHDOLVP�LV�DV�GHFLVLYH�LQ�LWV�GD\�WR�GD\�UHDOL]DWLRQ�DV�WKH�VKHHU�DPRXQWV�RI�LQYHVWPHQW�RU�WKH�PHUH�TXDOLW\�RI�SHUIRUPDQFH�

Conclusion and Outlook

&KLQD¶V�ULVH�IRUFHV�LWV�QHLJKERUV�DQG�WKH�:HVW�ZLWK�ZKLFK�WKH\�DUH�DOOLHG�WR�VWUHQJWK�HQ�WKH�EDVHV�RI�GHPRFUDF\��WKDW�LV��SOXUDOLVWLF�FRKHVLRQ�DQG�VRFLDO�VWDELOLW\��6RFLDO�idealism in South Korea and other democracies in the neighborhood of China can EH�PDLQWDLQHG�LI��QRW�OHDVW�ZLWK�WKH�KHOS�RI�WKH�DERYH�PHQWLRQHG�LQVWUXPHQWV�ZKLFK�(XURSH�KDV�SDUWLDOO\�VXFFHVVIXOO\�LPSOHPHQWHG��VL[�PDLQ�PHDVXUHV�DUH�XQGHUWDNHQ�

)LUVW��PRVW� JHQHULFDOO\� DQG� RYHUDOO� VHHQ�� VDYH� WKH�PLGGOH� FODVV� IURP� GHFOLQH��0DNH�WKLV�D�WRS�SULRULW\�ERWK�VKRUW��DQG�ORQJ�WHUP�

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7KLUG��IL[�\RXWK�XQHPSOR\PHQW��*RYHUQPHQWDO�LQFHQWLYH�SURJUDPV�DUH�D�YLDEOH�path.

)RXUWK��UH�LQWHJUDWH�WKH�ZRUNLQJ�FODVVHV�LQWR�WKH�PLGGOH�FODVV�GRPLQDWHG�SRVW�materialist group. Measures needed for that purpose include backing them up eco�QRPLFDOO\�� WKURXJK� JXDUDQWHHLQJ�PLQLPDO�ZDJHV�� EXW� DOVR� E\� WU\LQJ� WR� HPSRZHU�WKHP�SV\FKRORJLFDOO\� WKURXJK�KHOSLQJ� WKHP� WR� ILQG� WKHLU�RZQ� ODQJXDJH�DQG�FRQ�structive public discourse.

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6L[WK��UHVWRUH�DQG�LQWHQVLI\�SRVLWLYH�SXEOLF�GHEDWH�DERXW�WKH�EHQHILWV�RI�GHPRFUD�F\��DV�RSSRVHG�WR�DXWKRULWDULDQ�UHJLPHV��$V�VRFLDO�UHVHDUFK�DURXQG�WKH�ZRUOG�VKRZV��SRVW�PDWHULDOLVP�RU�VRFLDO�LGHDOLVP�LV�GLUHFWO\�UHODWHG�WR²DQG�GHSHQGHQW�RQ²WKH�RUJDQL]DWLRQDO�IRUP�RI�GHPRFUDF\��VR�&KLQD¶V�GHPRFUDWLF�QHLJKERUV�VKRXOGQ¶W�OHW�WKH�:HVWHUQ�FULVHV�GDPDJH�GRPHVWLF�GHPRFUDF\�E\�QRW�NHHSLQJ�LWV�EHQHILWV�VXIIL�FLHQWO\�SXEOLFO\�SUHVHQW��

$V�WKH�(XURSHDQ�H[SHULHQFH�RI�WKH�SDVW�GHFDGHV�VKRZV��VRFLDO�HTXDOLW\�FDQ�EH�NHSW�DW�D�UHODWLYHO\�KLJK�OHYHO�DOVR�LQ�FDSLWDOLVWLF�VRFLHWLHV�EXLOW�RQ�YHUWLFDO�VRFLDO�

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��

PRELOLW\��EXW� LW�GRHVQ¶W�FRPH�ZLWKRXW�D�SULFH��7KH�SULFH� LV� WKDW� WKH� VL[�PHDVXUHV�SDFNDJH��FRQFUHWL]HG�ZLWK�SDUWLDO�KHOS�RI�(XURSHDQ�PRGHO�SURJUDPV��FRVWV�PRQH\��effort, and endurance. It requires dedication and care over longer periods of time. ,W�LV�FOHDU�WKDW��DV�DOZD\V�ZKHQ�LGHDV�DUH�LPSOHPHQWHG�LQ�UHDOLW\��WKLV�VL[�PHDVXUHV�SDFNDJH�ZLOO�QRW�WULJJHU�PLUDFOHV��DQG�LW�PD\�QRW�SURGXFH�LPPHGLDWH�UHVXOWV��%XW�PRVW�FHUWDLQO\� LW�ZLOO� DIIHFW� WKH�RYHUDOO�GHYHORSPHQW� LQ� WKH�PHGLXP� WHUP�IRU� WKH�EHQHILW�RI�VWDELOLW\��EDODQFH��DQG�FROOHFWLYH�SURJUHVV�LQ�$VLDQ�GHPRFUDWLF�VRFLHWLHV�LI�implemented with conviction.

South Korea� VKRXOG�GR�HYHU\WKLQJ� WR�NHHS� LWV� ORQJ�H[HPSODU\� VRFLDO� LGHDOLVP�alive:

��� )RU�WKH�VDNH�RI�WKH�UHSXWDWLRQ�RI�GHPRFUDF\�LQ�$VLD���� $V�DQ�H[DPSOH�RI�EDODQFHG�GHYHORSPHQW�IRU�WKH�FULVLV�ULGGHQ�GHPRFUDWLF�FRP�

munities of the world;����0RVW�LPSRUWDQW��LQ�LWV�RZQ�GRPHVWLF�LQWHUHVW��WR�UHPDLQ�FRPSHWLWLYH�ZLWK�&KLQD��

as well as to remain a thriving partner for the rising neighbor, with potential teachings for its democratic development.

Europe should take notice of the problems of the democratic world’s most impor�WDQW�3DFLILF�DOOLHV��PXFK�PRUH�WKDQ�LW�KDV�GRQH�LQ�UHFHQW�\HDUV��,W�LV�LQ�LWV�YLWDO�LQWHU�HVW�WR�KHOS�WKHVH�FRXQWULHV�PDLQWDLQ�WKHLU�VRFLDO�VWDELOLW\��DQG��YLFH�YHUVD��OHDUQ�IURP�WKHLU�HFRQRPLF�DQG�WHFKQRORJLFDO�VXFFHVV��7KH�IDFW�WKDW�OHDGLQJ�FRXQWULHV�RI�WKH�(X�UR]RQH�VXFK�DV�*HUPDQ\�DUH�LQ�WKH�SURFHVV�RI�HVWDEOLVKLQJ�D�³VSHFLDO�UHODWLRQVKLS´�ZLWK�&KLQD�VKRXOG�QRW�GHFUHDVH�RU�HYHQ�KLQGHU�(XURSH¶V�IXUWKHU�DFWLYH�HQJDJHPHQW�LQ�WKHLU�WLHV�ZLWK�$VLDQ�GHPRFUDFLHV�DQG�WKHLU�SURGXFWLYH�EXW�LQGHSHQGHQW�H[FKDQJH�with China.

The United States�LV�ZHOO�DGYLVHG�WR�WDNH�WKH�JURZLQJ�(DVW�$VLDQ�VRFLDO�LQHTXDO�LW\�VHULRXVO\��DQG�WR�GR�HYHU\WKLQJ�WR�KHOS�LPSOHPHQW�WKH�PHDVXUHV�OLVWHG�DERYH�LQ�RUGHU�WR�PLWLJDWH�GLVSDULW\�DQG�WR�SUHYHQW�VRFLDO�XQUHVW��ERWK�LQ�WKH�SHUVSHFWLYH�RI�D�FRQVLGHUHG�GHYHORSPHQW�LQ�WKH�3DFLILF��DV�LQ�WKH�LQWHUHVW�RI�LWV�RZQ�³$VLD�ILUVW´�VWUDW�HJ\��,I�RQH�FRUH�IXWXUH�DLP�RI�WKH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV�LV�WR�SHDFHIXOO\�FRQWDLQ�&KLQD�DQG�WR�LQFOXGH�LW�SURGXFWLYHO\�LQ�WKH�ZRUOG�V\VWHP��WKDW�LV��WR�VXVWDLQ�&KLQD¶V�LQQHU�UHIRUPV�E\�SURYLGLQJ�EHVW�SUDFWLFH�H[DPSOHV�DQG�WR�EDODQFH�&KLQD¶V�JURZLQJ�PLOLWDU\�DQG�HFRQRPLF�SRZHU�E\�WKH�PHDQV�RI�VRIW�SRZHU��WKHQ�D�EUDQFK�RI�D�EDODQFHG�3DFLILF�VWUDWHJ\� VKRXOG�EH� WR� SD\�PRUH� DWWHQWLRQ� WR� VXVWDLQLQJ� VRFLDO� SHDFH� LQ� WKH�$VLDQ�GHPRFUDFLHV��DV�ZHOO�DV� WDUJHWHG��FXOWXUH�DSSURSULDWH�GHEDWHV�DJDLQVW� WKH�&KLQHVH�HOLWHV¶�DQWL�GHPRFUDWLF�SURSDJDQGD�LQ�WKH�UHJLRQ�

/DVW�EXW�QRW� OHDVW�DQG�PRVW� LPSRUWDQW�� LW�ZLOO�EH� LQFUHDVLQJO\�LQ� WKH�ORQJ�WHUP�strategic core interest of China�LWVHOI�WR�H[FKDQJH�H[SHULHQFHV�RI�WUDQVLWLRQ�WRZDUGV�SRWHQWLDOO\�PRUH�SDUWLFLSDWRU\�DSSURDFKHV�RI�VRFLHWDO�RUJDQL]DWLRQ�LQ�RUGHU�WR�YDU\�DQG�PXOWLSO\� LWV� RSWLRQV�� DQG� WKXV� WR� VWXG\� DFWLYHO\� WKH� DYDLODEOH� RIIHUV� RI� EHVW�SUDFWLFH�H[DPSOHV�E\�LWV�QHLJKERUV�LQ�H[FKDQJH�IRU�D�PRUH�PRGHUDWH�IRUHLJQ�SROLF\�attitude. That would be in full accordance with the proposals and demands of the JRYHUQPHQW¶V�RZQ�³:KLWH�3DSHU�RQ�&KLQD¶V�(IIRUWV�DQG�$FKLHYHPHQWV�LQ�3URPRW�LQJ�WKH�5XOH�RI�/DZ´�RI������ZKLFK�VHHNV�WR�³GUDZ�RQ�YDOXDEOH�IRUHLJQ�H[SHULHQFH�

Conclusion and Outlook

�� �� &KLQD�DQG�,WV�1HLJKERUV

IRU�UHIHUHQFH�ZKLOH�EDVLQJ�RXU�HIIRUWV�RQ�&KLQD¶V�DFWXDO�FRQGLWLRQV�´�� Depending RQ�WKH�RXWFRPH��LW�PD\�XVH�WKLV�H[SHULHQFH�DV�D�SRVLWLYH�RU�QHJDWLYH�H[DPSOH�RI�KRZ�to improve its own rule of law and to move towards more inclusive and less elitist RUGHU�SDWWHUQV�RI�GHFLVLRQ�PDNLQJ�DQG�SRZHU�GLVWULEXWLRQ��DV�SURPLVHG�E\�WKH�QHZ�leadership around Xi Jinping.

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97

Chapter 7China: The Road Ahead

Roland Benedikter

If the basic assumptions of the Chinese, Asian, American, and European analysts collected in this book are right, China’s future strategic outlook under Xi Jinping is double-fold:

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Just look at the dynamics of the United Nations Security Council… (or) even in the Gen-eral Assembly, the balance of power is shifting: 10 years ago, China won 43 % of the votes on human rights in the United Nations, far behind Europe’s 78 %. But in 2010–2011, the (8�ZRQ�OHVV�WKDQ������WR�&KLQD¶V�QHDUO\����SHUFHQW«�5DWKHU�WKDQ�EHLQJ�WUDQVIRUPHG�E\�global institutions, China’s sophisticated multilateral diplomacy is changing the global order itself.1

�� �+RZHYHU�� WKH� ³QHZ�&KLQD´�XQGHU�;L� -LQSLQJ� VHHPV� WR�EH�QHLWKHU�SUHSDUHG�nor interested in taking over an explicit international leadership role anytime soon, let alone the role of a guaranteeing power for the rising new multipolar world order side by side with, or even replacing the United States and Europe.

This in essence contradictory image echoes Xi Jinping’s words that China is suf-ficient in itself and doesn’t seek to dominate others, as we heard in Chapter 1, and it goes hand in hand with the old saying that China doesn’t need any friends because it is big enough to be a world in itself. But these projections are countered by China’s recent steady outer expansion and more self-confident and energetic role on the in-ternational stage, including its rather aggressive trade, currency, and armament poli-cies and its stance in the ongoing territorial disputes with more or less all its South-HUQ�DQG�(DVWHUQ�QHLJKERUV��$OWKRXJK�&KLQD�LQ�)HEUXDU\������³HFOLSVHG�WKH�8�6��DV�ELJJHVW�WUDGLQJ�QDWLRQ�´2 on the other hand it faces increasing inner problems that may hinder its further outer influence. In essence, the story of present China’s rise is a story of contradictions that characterize a world power in the making. It’s a story

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5��%HQHGLNWHU��9��1RZRWQ\��China’s Road Ahead, SpringerBriefs in Political Science, '2,��������������������������B�����The Author(s) 2014

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of dialectics between inner and outer factors, whose respective developmental laws VHHP�LQ�PDQ\�ZD\V�RSSRVHG�WR�HDFK�RWKHU�

A Story of Ambiguities

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,Q�IDFW��DV�GLG�5XVVHO�0HDG�RU�(XURSHDQ�&RXQFLO�RQ�)RUHLJQ�5HODWLRQ¶V�0DUN�/HRQDUG�� Stanford’s Thomas Fingar has pointed out that China’s vision of world RUGHU�LV�FRQWUDGLFWRU\�DV�LW�LV�WR�WKH�VDPH�H[WHQW�FRQWH[W�GHSHQGHQW�DV�LW�LV�LQGHSHQ�GHQW�PLQGHG�

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7KLV�KDVQ¶W�RQO\�DGYDQWDJHV�WKRXJK��$V�-RQ�.\O��'RXJODV�-��)HLWK��DQG�-RKQ�)RQWH�KDYH�ZRUNHG�RXW�� WKH� OHYHOLQJ�RI� WKH� LQWHUQDWLRQDO� V\VWHP� WKURXJK�&KLQD¶V� ULVLQJ�LQIOXHQFH�DQG�PRUH�H[WHQGHG�SDUWLFLSDWLRQ�SDUWLFXODUO\�ZKHQ� LW�FRPHV� WR� LQWHUQD�WLRQDO�ODZ�DQG�JOREDO�VWDQGDUGV�QRW�RQO\�SUHVHQWV�RSSRUWXQLWLHV��EXW�ZLOO�DOVR�LPSO\�QRW�WR�XQGHUHVWLPDWH�IODZV�DQG�GDQJHUV�LQ�WKH�FRPLQJ�\HDUV��$�³ZDU�RI�ODZ´�FRXOG�be triggered with an unclear outcome for Western democracies and the principle of DQ�RSHQ�VRFLHW\�7�7KLV�LV�QRW�RQO\�WKH�FDVH�IURP�DQ�$PHULFDQ�³SDWULRWLF´�SHUVSHF�WLYH�VXFK�DV� WKDW�RI�.\O��)HLWK��DQG�)RQWH��ZKHUH� WUDGLWLRQDOLVW� IRUFHV�QRWRULRXVO\�IHDU�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�DJUHHPHQWV�FRXOG�HQGDQJHU�RU�HYHQ�UHSODFH�$PHULFDQ�VRYHUHLJQW\�LQ�VRPHWLPHV�H[DJJHUDWHG�ZD\V��7KHVH�IRUFHV�GRQ¶W�UHDOL]H�WKDW�LQ�WKH�DJH�RI�JOR�balization and of the end of monolateral American world dominance, the United 6WDWHV¶�UHVLVWDQFH�DJDLQVW�IXUWKHU�FRPPLWPHQW�WR�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�ODZ�LV�QRW�DQ\�ORQJHU�D�SRLQW�RI�VWUHQJWK��EXW�LV�LQ�UHDOLW\�XQGHUPLQLQJ�LWV�SRVLWLRQ�LQ�WKH�QHZ�PXOWLODWHUDO�FRQVWHOODWLRQ�E\�LVRODWLQJ�$PHULFD�DPRQJ�LWV�DOOLHV��%XW�LW�LV�DOVR�SODXVLEOH�WKDW�WKH�further international law will become a compromise between the West and China, WKDW� LV�� EHWZHHQ�GHPRFUDF\� DQG� DXWKRULWDULDQLVP�� WKH�PRUH� HQGDQJHUHG� WKH�SULQ�FLSOHV�RI�LQGLYLGXDOLW\��VHOI�UHOLDQFH��IUHHGRP��DQG�VHOI�UHDOL]DWLRQ�PD\�EHFRPH�DV�a consequence of China’s rising global weight, along with the potential leveling of international environmental or human rights standards and with the softening of FRRSHUDWLRQ�LQ�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�ERGLHV�VXFK�DV�WKH�8QLWHG�1DWLRQV��WKH�:RUOG�%DQN��RU�WKH�,QWHUQDWLRQDO�0RQHWDU\�)XQGV��QRW�WR�IRUJHW�XQVROYHG�SUREOHPV�VXFK�DV�7LEHW�LQ�FUHDVLQJO\�³VRUWHG�RXW´�RI�WKH�VSKHUH�RI�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�DJUHHPHQWV�LQ�RUGHU�WR�EHFRPH�domestic Chinese issues. China’s decades old neutral blockage politics in interna�WLRQDO�DIIDLUV�XQGHU�WKH�VORJDQ�RI�DQ�DOOHJHG�³SULPDF\�RI�QRQLQWHUIHUHQFH´�LV�VWLOO�LQ�WKH�KHDGV�RI�WKH�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�FRPPXQLW\��DV�PRVW�UHFHQWO\�WKH��WUDJLF��H[DPSOHV�RI�6\ULD�RU�1RUWK�.RUHD�KDYH�VKRZQ�

6XPPDUL]LQJ�WKHVH�YLHZV�E\�SRLQWLQJ�RXW�WKH�JURZLQJ�LQWHUGHSHQGHQF\�EHWZHHQ�inner and outer factors, Columbia’s Ian Bremmer concludes:

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��T. Fingar, loc cit.7 -�� .\O�� '�� -�� )HLWK� DQG� -� )RQWH�� 7KH�:DU� RI� /DZ�� +RZ�1HZ� ,QWHUQDWLRQDO� /DZ�8QGHUPLQHV�'HPRFUDWLF�6RYHUHLJQW\�� ,Q��)RUHLJQ�$IIDLUV�� -XO\�$XJXVW� ������ KWWS���ZZZ�IRUHLJQDIIDLUV�FRP�DUWLFOHV��������MRQ�N\O�GRXJODV�M�IHLWK�DQG�MRKQ�IRQWH�WKH�ZDU�RI�ODZ�

100 �� &KLQD��7KH�5RDG�$KHDG��5RODQG�%HQHGLNWHU�

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Three Main Characteristics of China’s Future. First:

Ambiguity and Context-Reliance Versus Transparency

and Long-Term Predictability

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8 I. Bremmer, loc cit., pp. 180.��&I��0��&URZOH\��0DNH�:D\�IRU�&KLQD��,Q�WKH�FRQWHVW�IRU�WKH�IXWXUH�RI�$VLD��2EDPD¶V�FDQFHOHG�WULS�RSHQV�WKH�GRRU�IRU�%HLMLQJ¶V�LQFUHDVLQJ�LQIOXHQFH��,Q��7LPH��2FWREHU�����������SS����±���

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A Second Dichotomy: Authority Versus Liberalization

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The Third Dichotomy: Stability or Reform?

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This would mean that although stronger economic ties will be contributing to VWUHQJWKHQ�SROLWLFDO�UHODWLRQVKLSV�DPRQJ�&KLQD��WKH�:HVW��DQG�WKH�ZRUOG��WKH\�PD\�DW�WKH�VDPH�WLPH�QRW�QHFHVVDULO\�OHDG�WR�JUHDWHU�VWDELOLW\��2Q�WKH�FRQWUDU\��WKH\�FRXOG�WULJJHU�QHZ�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�FRQIOLFWV�WKURXJK�WUDGH�FRQIOLFWV��$V�H[SHULHQFH�WHDFKHV��conflicts on an international scale, irrespective of their origin, don’t tend to facilitate domestic reforms.

,Q�VWDUN�FRQWUDVW�WR�WKLV�YLHZ��WKH�8QLYHUVLW\�RI�&KLFDJR¶V�(YDQ�$��)HLJHQEDXP�and Daniel Ma have summarized the hopes for rapid democratization through eco�QRPLF�LVVXHV��VNHWFKLQJ�D�SRWHQWLDOO\�IDYRUDEOH�RYHUDOO�FRQVWHOODWLRQ�WKDW�PD\�IDFLOL�WDWH�WKH�EUHDNWKURXJK�RI�GHPRFUDF\�LQ�&KLQD�LQ�SDUDGR[LFDO�ZD\V�DV�IROORZV�

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A growing chorus of pessimists, in China and elsewhere, has coalesced around three FHQWUDO�DUJXPHQWV��7KH�ILUVW�JURXS��FDOO�WKHP�WKH�³HFRQRPLF�F\QLFV�´�DUJXHV�WKDW�WKH�EDU�IRU�UHIRUP�LV�MXVW�WRR�KLJK��7KH�VHFRQG�JURXS��FDOO�WKHP�WKH�³VRFLDO�GRRPVD\HUV�´�DUJXHV�WKDW�EDG�policies and poor governance are fueling unprecedented social unrest. This group insists that VLQFH�SUHVHUYLQJ�SROLWLFDO�VWDELOLW\�LV�%HLMLQJ¶V�WRS�SULRULW\��WKH�JRYHUQPHQW�ZLOO�DYRLG�XQGHU�WDNLQJ�UHIRUPV�WKDW�ULVN�VKRUW�WHUP�HFRQRPLF�GLVORFDWLRQ�DQG�PLJKW�IXUWKHU�H[DFHUEDWH�VRFLDO�GLVFRQWHQW��7KH�ILQDO�JURXS��FDOO�WKHP�WKH�³SROLWLFDO�GRXEWHUV�´�TXHVWLRQV�WKH�QHZ�OHDGHUVKLS¶V�UHVROYH� WR� RYHUFRPH� SRZHUIXO� YHVWHG� LQWHUHVWV� WKDW� ZLOO� UHVLVW� UHIRUPV�� HVSHFLDOO\� DPRQJ�

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1RQH�RI�WKHVH�WKUHH�FDPSV�LV�HQWLUHO\�ZURQJ��(DFK�GHVFULEHV�D�FHUWDLQ�IDFHW�RI�WKH�FRQVLGHU�able challenges China’s new leaders now confront. But their pessimism ignores a central OHVVRQ�RI�&KLQD¶V�UHFHQW�KLVWRU\²RQH�WKDW�XQGRXEWHGO\�UHVRQDWHV�ZLWK�DW�OHDVW�VRPH�PHP�EHUV�RI�WKH�QHZ�SROLF\�WHDP��UHIRUP�LV�SRVVLEOH�ZKHQ�WKH�ULJKW�PL[�RI�FRQGLWLRQV�FRPHV�together at the right time. Indeed, China has had significant bursts of economic reform in WKH�SDVW��PRVW�QRWDEO\� LQ� WKH� ODWH�����V�GXULQJ� WKH�SUHPLHUVKLS�RI�=KX�5RQJML��7KDW�HUD�proved that bold reform is achievable when three conditions are present: a crisis of political FUHGLELOLW\�DW�KRPH��YXOQHUDELOLW\�WR�DQ�HFRQRPLF�RU�ILQDQFLDO�FULVLV�DEURDG��DQG�D�OHDGHU�VKLS�VDYY\�HQRXJK�WR�UHFRJQL]H�WKH�QHHG�IRU�FKDQJH��7RGD\��%HLMLQJ�GRHV�IDFH�HQRUPRXV�REVWDFOHV��DQG�WKH�IRUFHV�DUUD\HG�DJDLQVW�UHIRUP�DUH�QXPHURXV�DQG�HQWUHQFKHG��%XW�HDFK�RI�WKHVH�WKUHH�FRQGLWLRQV�LV�RQFH�DJDLQ�SUHVHQW�LQ�&KLQD��SRWHQWLDOO\�ERRVWLQJ�WKH�SURVSHFWV�IRU�real and enduring economic change.18

Outlook. An Undervalued Question for the Middle

Kingdom’s Future: Who Are—and Where Are—China’s

Friends?

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���Outlook. An Undervalued Question for the Middle Kingdom’s Future

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107

Chapter 8Perspectives I: Basing China’s Government on Legitimacy and Values: An Interview with Peng Bo

Verena Nowotny

Peng Bo, Associate Professor of Political Science at Jiao Tong University in Shang-hai, uses his intimate knowledge of political processes in China to develop concrete policy recommendations for reforms. He engages in local experiments about citizen engagement in political decision making and regards local politics in China as the level in most urgent need of reform.

Verena Nowotny talked with Peng Bo about the political and social environment in China under the new leadership of Xi Jinping.

Verena Nowotny: The Chinese leadership model is unique. A small group—the Standing Committee, consisting of seven persons—is responsible for almost all po-litical decisions. Their collective leadership has helped to achieve more balanced policies, if compared to a strong presidential system. But has it also prevented the implementation of bolder policies—bold sometimes also against its own people?

Peng Bo: When we talk about collective leadership we must see it in a historical context. The reason why Deng Xiaoping (the historical Communist leader between 1979 and 1997) thought it was necessary to think about collective leadership was that the people suffered a lot from the Cultural Revolution. Deng’s conclusion was that the Cultural Revolution could take place because Mao got too much power. If we have only one emperor or governor, such a tragedy could happen again. Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin understood the dilemma of the Communist Party in that way that it is not the lack of rule of law, but the over-centralized decision making in the party that causes problems. The only way to keep the party safe and to avoid a personal emperor in the party is therefore a collective leadership. Furthermore, it is impossible to find one single person that would be qualified to please everybody in such a huge country. A group of people are more accepted to lead that country than one single person. However, there are disadvantages of collective leadership as it is sometimes not very easy to come to a common conclusion. Now the number of members of the Standing Committee has been reduced from nine to seven, which makes it easier to make policy decisions more efficiently. That also means that Xi Jinping’s position is consolidated. A smaller Standing Committee indicates that the position of the party leader is rather strong.

R. Benedikter, V. Nowotny, China’s Road Ahead, SpringerBriefs in Political Science, DOI 10.1007/978-1-4614-9363-1_8, © The Author(s) 2014

108

As the new leaders are well traveled and familiar with the West, there is hope among foreign observers that Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang might be more open to Western concepts of governance.

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Isn’t it almost ironic that those who have benefited the most from China’s eco-nomic progress express stronger discontent than those who are less well off?

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Talking about values: the idea of a Harmonious Society epitomizes a lot of Confucian ideals. However, it seems that the idea of harmony increasingly shifted to become another expression for stability.

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However, right now China seems to be rather far away from achieving every-body’s contentment. On the contrary, we see an increasing number of mass incidents and protests on the streets and critical voices on the Web. What has the government done to deal with these signs of discontent?

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Many conflicts result from land grabs or bad working conditions for migrant workers or from real estate projects in the major cities. Do you expect the govern-ment to become more conciliatory on these issues?

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Right. In fact, on March 3rd, 2012 municipal elections were held in Wukan, Guandong province, following an uprising against the ruling Communist govern-ment over alleged land grabs in which protesters forced out the incumbent gov-ernment. The provincial government then acceded to an election for a committee to govern Wukan. The election would choose a seven-member village committee, including a village chief and his two deputies, who would control local finances, as well as the sale and apportioning of collectively owned village land.

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It seems that the capacity for conflict resolution especially on the local level is by far not sufficient. What can be done to improve that?

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Do citizens become engaged in such local participation experiments?1RW�UHDOO\��7KH�UHDVRQ�LV�WKDW�WKH�QHLJKERUKRRG�DUHD�LV�QRW�DQ�DFWXDO�GHFLVLRQ�

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There is a vivid debate going on about what China should look like in the future. Who is shaping that debate? Can academics like you lead the way by offering con-crete policy recommendations?

$FDGHPLFV�KDYH�D�YHU\� LPSRUWDQW� UROH� WR�H[SODLQ�SROLWLFV� DQG�ZD\V�RI�JRYHU�QDQFH��2XU�SROLFLHV�DUH�XVXDOO\�YHU\�IOH[LEOH��GHWDLOV�DUH�RIWHQ�QRW�GHFLGHG�EXW�LW�LV�D�NLQG�RI�SDFNDJH��:KDW¶V�LQ�WKH�SDFNDJH"�,W�GHSHQGV��,Q�WHUPV�RI�H[SODQDWLRQ�DQG�instructions, the leadership needs to see what occurs.

Wasn’t that to a certain extent what happened to the concept of the Harmonious Society that changed very much into preserving stability at all costs?

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113

Chapter 9Perspectives II: Coexistence Between Communitarian China and the Individualistic United States: An Interview with Robert Martin Lees

Roland Benedikter

Robert Martin Lees, former rector of the University for Peace of the United Nations and former United Nations Assistant Secretary General for Science and Technology for Development, has been active in China since the 1970s as governmental advisor and through international cooperation and exchange programs in leading positions. These include the coordination of the program to brief the leaders of China on international issues: “China and the World in the Nineties” (1988–1995), the estab-lishment of “The China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development” in 1992 of which he was a Member for 15 years, and the co-chairing of the program on “Integration of Economic Planning and Environmental Protec-tion” (1997–2001) with the Vice Chairman of China‘s State Development and Plan-ning Commission, now National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).

Roland Benedikter talked with Lees about the core issues of China’s present, as compared with the past decades, the implications of the power transfer of 2012–2013 and the perspectives.

Roland Benedikter: What were China’s core issues in the framework of the complex mechanisms of the power transfer of 2012-13? And what will be its perspectives after it?

Former German chancellor and global statesman Helmut Schmidt recently stated in an interview that China may be on the brink of collapse due to its increasing social, class and stratification problems, and also because of failed reforms. Indeed, among the structural and systemic problems seem to be the end of the low-level-wages phase of development, the rising middle class and its “natural” demand for participation, the globalization of China’s youth through foreign education, the input of the global Chinese diaspora and the internet, the increasingly publicly-visible corruption and misbehavior scandals within the communist elite, as well as the confrontation with America and its democratic allies in the South China Sea. What is worse, the bank-ing system has not been reformed, and the influence of the military-industrial com-plex is rising, triggering more aggressive behavior towards China’s neighbors, thus undermining the concept of “peaceful rising” and inducing a new arms race.

Robert Martin Lees: I agree that all this is the case. These are without doubt cornerstones of China’s present situation.

R. Benedikter, V. Nowotny, China’s Road Ahead, SpringerBriefs in Political Science, DOI 10.1007/978-1-4614-9363-1_9, © The Author(s) 2014

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The new leadership under Xi Jinping installed in November 2012 has in the meantime been perceived even as being a step backwards, given that many believe it is composed of conservatives rather than reformers and will thus continue to be reluctant to implement institutional and systemic reforms. Nevertheless, many believe an opening up is unavoidable given China’s increased interaction with in-ternational issues. The irony seems to be that it is exactly China’s external success and rise that is now changing it internally, threatening the existing political and institutional system and thus turning in some ways against the fathers of this un-precedented success.

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The West apparently has understood that a systemic shift is in the air. After a phase of relative passivity it is now trying again to influence change in China ac-tively from the outside through “benevolent propaganda,” such as by giving awards and thus global visibility to Chinese dissidents, among them the recent Nobel Prizes for Literature or the German book industry Peace Award. Taken together, rather than being on an inevitable rise, as often perceived from the outside, China seems to face lots of challenges, both domestically and with regard to its foreign poli-cies. Schmidt predicts that under the pressure of these challenges there will be a relatively fast development towards democratization or at least towards reform, or alternatively that the order that had been established since the 1960s, basically since the big dialectics within the Communist party between Liuism (after the for-mer president Liu Shao-chi) and Maoism (after Mao Zedong) will take the ruling nomenclatura to its decline. Like Schmidt, many in Europe, especially in Germany which is establishing a very special relationship with China—viewed with skepti-cism by the United States—expect that there will be profound transformation within this decade. There are counter-indications, though. Is the Western hope for change exaggerated or does it correspond to the realities on the ground?

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The central concern for millions of Chinese whose living standards have im�SURYHG� GUDPDWLFDOO\� LQ� UHFHQW� \HDUV� LV� WKDW� WKH� JRYHUQPHQW� LQ� IDU�DZD\�%HLMLQJ��whatever it is called and however it functions, should continue to manage develop�PHQW�VR�DV�WR�LPSURYH�WKHLU�OLYHV��,W�LV�D�KLVWRULF�IDFW�WKDW�WKH�&RPPXQLVW�3DUW\�KDV�EHHQ�GRLQJ�WKLV�TXLWH�VXFFHVVIXOO\�RYHU�WKH�SDVW�GHFDGHV�OLIWLQJ�KXQGUHGV�RI�PLOOLRQV�RI�&KLQHVH�RXW�RI�DEMHFW�SRYHUW\�RYHU�VRPH����\HDUV��:H�PD\�QRW�OLNH�WKHLU�PHWKRGV��EXW��LQ�WKHLU�YLHZ��LI�\RX�DUH�UXQQLQJ�D�FRXQWU\�RI������ELOOLRQ�SHRSOH�LW¶V�D�GLIIHUHQW�VFDOH�RI�FKDOOHQJH�IURP�LI�\RX�DUH�UXQQLQJ�D�VPDOOHU�FRXQWU\��RI�HYHQ�RI����RU����million. Taken together, the Chinese leaders come from a different culture and a dif�ferent tradition, and the interests of the population are different from ours. For us to WU\�WR�WUDQVPLW�WR�WKHP�RXU�:HVWHUQ�WUDGLWLRQV�DQG�FXOWXUDO�LGHDV�DQG�H[SHFW�WKHP�WR�WKLQN�OLNH�XV�LV�D�YHU\�REYLRXV�PLVWDNH�

On the other hand, the official statistics released by the Chinese government report (and these are only the official numbers) that China had at least 90,000 riots involving more than 500 people each in public space in 2011 alone; similar num-bers are expected for the subsequent years. Not really a peaceful and stable situa-tion as it seems. So I agree that neither Europe, nor the United States, nor China alone are “in crisis,” but the whole world is in the midst of a change, in part due to the start of a certain “mature” phase of globalization, and the respective “natural” counter-reactions. That said, is it not the case that there are some indications that China is not only undergoing a change in thinking as you rightly observed, but may-be also a real social, political, and maybe institutional change that is transforming the social stratification and most probably in the medium term also, the political landscape? And what about the power transfer of 2012–2013? Would you say that this generational power transfer was a kind of rupture, a change for innovation? Or was it rather an expression of continuity?

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Western critics often discount this remarkable improvement in the lives of the Chinese people and fail to appreciate that, in such a profound and rapid transforma�WLRQ�RI�D�YDVW�FRXQWU\��WKHUH�ZLOO�EH�LQHYLWDEOH�WHQVLRQV��WKHUH�ZLOO�EH�ZLQQHUV�DQG�losers and fights and struggles. In our own transitions over far longer periods of WLPH�LQ�(XURSH�DQG�LQ�WKH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV�LW�KDV�EHHQ�QR�GLIIHUHQW��,I�\RX�FRQVLGHU�WKH�,QGXVWULDO�5HYROXWLRQ�LQ�WKH�8QLWHG�.LQJGRP��IRU�H[DPSOH��DOO�PDQQHU�RI�VWUXJJOHV�and inequities took place. Deep social transformations cause tensions and violence, ZKLFK�\RX�KDYH�DOVR�H[SHULHQFHG�QRW�VR�ORQJ�DJR�LQ�WKH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV�

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Does “manage to find solutions” include a system change at large? Or is this notion restricted to “operative” and functional reforms, for example, fighting cor-ruption, improving the economy, or building a better infrastructure? In other words: Does “manage to find solutions” mainly mean to improve the performance of the given system, or does it also include a basic change towards a more participatory system, that is, a change in the basic organization of the government and the state? The question in my view is whether the one—operative reform—is at all possible without the other—systemic reform—at the given stage of development.

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\RX¶OO�VHH�WKDW�LW�KDV�FKDQJHG�VSHFWDFXODUO\�LQ�WKH�ODVW�WKUHH�GHFDGHV��SDUWLFXODUO\�LQ�WKH�ODVW����\HDUV��ERWK�LQ�WHUPV�RI�WKH�LQWHUQDO�SROLWLFDO�DQG�LQVWLWXWLRQDO�V\VWHPV�DQG�HYHQ�PRUH�LQ�WKH�TXHVWLRQ�RI�KRZ�LW�IXQFWLRQV��<RX�KDYH�KDG��IRU�H[DPSOH��D�SHUIHFWO\�VPRRWK�WUDQVIHU�RI�SRZHU�DW�WKH�WRS�RI�WKH�JRYHUQPHQW�DQG�SDUW\�LQ�WKH�ODVW�PRQWKV��QRW�\HW�FRPSOHWH��EXW�VDIHO\�RQ�LWV�ZD\��7KLV�LV�D�VLJQ�WKDW�WKH�SROLWLFDO�SURFHVV�LV�FRP�SDUDWLYHO\�PDWXUH��<RX�GRQ¶W�QRZ�KDYH�WKH�VDPH�NLQG�RI�WUDQVLWLRQ�VWUXJJOHV�WKDW�\RX�KDG�LQ�WKH�ROG�GD\V��,Q�&KLQD��WKH�SURFHVV�RI�SROLWLFDO�FKDQJH�LV�QRZ�D�UHJXODU�DQG�FRP�SDUDWLYHO\�SUHGLFWDEOH�SURFHVV��WUDQVSDUHQW�LQ�WKH�VHQVH�WKDW�WKH�WLPLQJ�DQG�SURFHGXUH�are known even though the critical decisions are processed in secret. So compared to LWV�KLVWRU\�HDUOLHU�LQ�WKH�WZHQWLHWK�FHQWXU\��&KLQD�KDV�PDGH�HQRUPRXV�SURJUHVV�

Can you provide a practical example for the kind of change that has occurred?:KHQ�,�ILUVW�ZHQW�WR�&KLQD�LQ�HDUO\�������,�ZDV�WKH�ILUVW�RYHUVHDV�JXHVW�RI�WKH�

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7KLV� KDV� DOO� FKDQJHG�� ,I� \RX� QRZ� ORRN� DFURVV� WKH�&KLQHVH� JRYHUQPHQW��PRVW�RI�WKH�NH\�SHRSOH��JRYHUQRUV�RU�YLFH�JRYHUQRUV��PLQLVWHUV�DQG�YLFH�PLQLVWHUV��DQG�H[SHUWV�DUH�H[SHULHQFHG�DQG�TXDOLILHG�DQG�DUH�OHVV�LQWHUHVWHG�LQ�LGHRORJ\�DQG�PRUH�committed to managing their provinces, ministries, departments, and policies in LQWHOOLJHQW�DQG�HIIHFWLYH�ZD\V��7KLV�WUDQVLWLRQ�KDV�QRW�EHHQ�DSSUHFLDWHG�VXIILFLHQWO\�in the West and is a hopeful sign for the future of China. Throughout the apparatus of government there has been this huge change to increase the focus on compe�WHQFH��SURIHVVLRQDOLVP��H[SHULHQFH��DQG�TXDOLILFDWLRQ��$QG�WKLV�WUHQG�LV�DOVR�DGYDQF�LQJ�ZLWKLQ�WKH�&RPPXQLVW�3DUW\�LWVHOI�

6R�LQ�P\�YLHZ�&KLQD�LV�RQ�D�SRVLWLYH�WUDFN��DQG�WKH�TXDOLW\�RI�LWV�SROLF\�PDNLQJ��WKH�TXDOLW\�RI�LWV�GHFLVLRQV�DQG�SROLF\�DQDO\VLV�LV�QRZ�PXFK�EHWWHU�WKDQ�HYHU�EHIRUH��2I�FRXUVH��KXJH�SUREOHPV�GR�UHPDLQ��QRWDEO\�WKH�LVVXHV�RI�FRUUXSWLRQ�DQG�WKH�H[�SURSULDWLRQ�RI�ODQG�DW�WKH�ORFDO�OHYHO�EXW�WKLV�E\�QR�PHDQV�LPSOLHV�WKDW�WKH�V\VWHP�LV�QHDUO\�IDOOLQJ�DSDUW��,�WKLQN��LQ�IDFW��WKDW�WKH\�ZLOO�JUDGXDOO\�HQDFW�SROLFLHV�WR�RSHQ�

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XS�PRUH�SDUWLFLSDWLRQ��,�EHOLHYH�WKDW�WKH\�NQRZ�WKDW�WKLV�LV�QHHGHG�EHWWHU�WKDQ�ZH�GR��%XW�WKH\�DUH�ULJKWO\�FDXWLRXV��,�KDYH�DFWXDOO\�EHHQ�GLVFXVVLQJ�WKHVH�LVVXHV�VLQFH������VR�QRQH�RI�WKLV�LV�SDUWLFXODUO\�QHZ�RU�VXUSULVLQJ��LW¶V�D�FRQWLQXRXV�GHEDWH�DQG�VWUXJJOH��$QG�WKH�XQGHUO\LQJ�TXHVWLRQ�LV�DOZD\V�WKH�VDPH��KRZ�GR�\RX�PDQDJH�WKH�GHYHORSPHQW�RI������ELOOLRQ�SHRSOH"�,�GRQ¶W�WKLQN�DQ\RQH�LQ�WKH�:HVW�KDV�D�EHWWHU�answer than the Chinese.

But nevertheless let me come back to the critics. We had the famous dissident Fang Lizhi who continued to repeat from the 1980s until his death in 2012 that the democ-ratization of China was close to happening, and that it was as sure as a natural law that China would become a democracy or would go to ruin. This opinion was echoed by this year’s award winner of the German book industry Peace Prize for 2012, Liao Yiwu, who said the Chinese government is a murderous regime which doesn’t allow a civil society to establish itself even if the middle class demands it increasingly not only in the coastal regions anymore but also in the classical agricultural areas. There are many similar dissident voices around these days, so many as probably never be-fore, and I am not speaking only of rather colorful people like Ai Weiwei, who among others got the German Award of the city of Kassel “The Glass of Reason” in 2010 and is considered a “provocative person” by the Chinese foreign ministry spokes-person Hong Wei. So is all this simply a misunderstanding or a misinterpretation?

1R��7KHUH�LV�FOHDUO\�JURZLQJ�SUHVVXUH�IRU�FKDQJH��,I�\RX�KDYH������ELOOLRQ�SHR�SOH�\RX�KDYH�D�YHU\�ZLGH�UDQJH�RI�RSLQLRQV��DQG�WKHUH�LV�QRWKLQJ�VXUSULVLQJ�DERXW�that. And in the process of deep social transformation with winners and losers and IUXVWUDWLRQV�DQG�RSSRUWXQLWLHV��PDQ\�SHRSOH�KDYH�GLIIHUHQW�RSLQLRQV��7KH�IDFW�WKDW�\RX�FDQ�ILQG�SHRSOH�WKHUH�ZKR�SUHGLFW�WKH�FROODSVH�RI�WKH�V\VWHP�LV�QRW�VXUSULVLQJ��\RX�FDQ�ILQG�PDQ\�LQ�$PHULFD�QRZDGD\V��RU�LQ�WKH�(XURSHDQ�8QLRQ��SUHGLFWLQJ�WKH�EUHDNGRZQ�RI�WKH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV�RU�WKH�(XURSHDQ�8QLRQ�

I would, however, underline that we are observing a particular stage of a continu�LQJ�SURFHVV�RI�FKDQJH��,Q�DQ\�VXFK�SURFHVV�RI�GHHS�VRFLDO�FKDQJH�WKURXJKRXW�KLVWRU\��WKHUH�KDYH�DOZD\V�EHHQ�D�ZLGH�UDQJH�RI�WHQGHQFLHV�DQG�H[SHFWDWLRQV��LQFOXGLQJ�WKRVH�ZKR�GHPDQG�PD[LPXP�FKDQJH�DW�D�SDFH�ZKLFK�WKH�V\VWHP�FDQQRW�GHOLYHU��3ROLWLFDO�OHDGHUV�PXVW�EDODQFH�DOO�VXFK�GLYHUVH�SUHVVXUHV��$V�,�KDYH�VDLG��LI�\RX�FRPSDUH�WKH�OLYLQJ�FRQGLWLRQV�DQG�RSSRUWXQLWLHV�IRU�KXQGUHGV�RI�PLOOLRQV�RI�&KLQHVH�WRGD\�ZLWK�WKRVH�RI�HYHQ����\HDUV�DJR�\RX�FDQ�VHH�WKDW�FLYLO�VRFLHW\�DQG�D�PLGGOH�FODVV�LQ�&KLQD�DUH�GHYHORSLQJ�VLJQLILFDQWO\�

But you don’t believe that these predictions have any direct relationship to reality?

:HOO��DV�ZH�KDYH�VDLG��LW�LV�D�FRPSOH[�VRFLDO�DQG�SROLWLFDO�VLWXDWLRQ��$Q\RQH�ZKR�VD\V�WKDW�WKLV�RU�WKDW�FDQ�QHYHU�KDSSHQ�LV�LQ�PRVW�FDVHV�SURYHG�ZURQJ��:KDW�,�DP�considering is probabilities and relating them to what has been achieved and what LV�DFWXDOO\�QRZ�KDSSHQLQJ�LQ�WKH�FRXQWU\��7KHUH�LV�QRWKLQJ�VXUSULVLQJ�DERXW�WKH�IDFW�WKDW�WKHUH�DUH�SHRSOH�ZKR�DUH�SUHGLFWLQJ�WKH�FROODSVH�RI�&KLQD��7KHUH�DUH�SOHQW\�RI�SHRSOH�ZKR�DUH�SUHGLFWLQJ�WKH�FROODSVH�RI�(XURSH�DQG�PDQ\�SHRSOH�SUHGLFWLQJ�WKH�decline of the United States. This is just part of the spectrum of opinions. Also, in

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In another area, I am engaged on issues of climate change. In this field, the no�WLRQ�WKDW�SHRSOH�VD\�WKLQJV�RQO\�EHFDXVH�WKH\�KDYH�IRUPHG�REMHFWLYH�MXGJPHQWV�GRHV�QRW� UHIOHFW� UHDOLW\�� 3HRSOH� VD\� WKLQJV� IRU�PDQ\�PRWLYHV�� SHUKDSV� VLPSO\� EHFDXVH�WKH\�EHOLHYH�WKHP�WR�EH�WUXH�RU�EHFDXVH�WKH\�DUH�SDLG�WR�VD\�WKHP��RU�EHFDXVH�LW¶V�WR�their advantage. It can be more fashionable and interesting to predict the collapse RI�&KLQD�WKDQ�WR�H[SODLQ�ZK\�WKH\�WKLQN�WKDW�&KLQD�ZLOO�VXFFHHG��,Q�PDQ\�FRXQWULHV��IRU�H[DPSOH�LQ�$XVWULD��WKHUH�DUH�YHU\�VWURQJ�IHHOLQJV�DERXW�KXPDQ�ULJKWV�DQG�UDGLR�DQG�79�DUH�IXOO�RI�FULWLFLVP�RI�&KLQD��7KH�IDFW�WKDW�WKH�&KLQHVH�JRYHUQPHQW�LV�PRY�LQJ�PLOOLRQV�RXW�RI�SRYHUW\�DQG�WKDW�PRVW�&KLQHVH�DUH�EHWWHU�RII�WKDQ�HYHU�EHIRUH�LQ�WKHLU�KLVWRU\�LV�LJQRUHG��:H�VKRXOG�NHHS�D�VHQVH�RI�SHUVSHFWLYH��&KLQD�KDV�FRPSHWHQW�politicians and decision makers who are able to recognize problems, acknowledge IDFWV��DQG�GUDZ�ORJLFDO�FRQFOXVLRQV��7KH�QHZ�OHDGHUVKLS�ZLOO��LQ�P\�YLHZ�IRU�PDQ\�LGHQWLILDEOH�UHDVRQV��JUDGXDOO\�DQG�FDUHIXOO\�PRYH�LQ�D�GLUHFWLRQ�WR�UHGXFH�WHQVLRQV�DQG�IRVWHU�D�PRUH�FRKHUHQW��MXVW��SDUWLFLSDWRU\��DQG�OHVV�XQHTXDO�VRFLHW\�

… not least through instilling a new populism propagated by Xi Jinping to calm down protests. Many today say that, as in any big political party around the world and in any regime, there are different factions within the current Chinese Communist Party that are in contradiction, in a kind of inner dialectics with each other. One fac-tion is called the new leftists, the hardcore conservative communists, and the other is the new center, or those who are more centrists and less radical. Xi Jinping and most of his team are part of this second faction, while there are apparently no representa-tives of the liberal and reformist factions in the new government, with the exception of Li Keqiang. Many say there is a fierce battle behind the scenes between the two factions that, in a certain sense, repeats aspects of the old dialectics between Liuism and Maoism in the 1960s, highlighted by the exclusion of the politburo Standing Committee candidate Wang Yang, whom many Western observers saw as the poten-tial beacon of serious political reform. Mao initially was concentrating on develop-ing the agricultural basis, the farmers, and neglected the proletariat and the big city populations, which was the main difference to the Soviet Union, whereas Liu had an-other opinion that was based on balancing the development of the countryside with urban development. He promoted the classic industrialization strategy Soviet style.

Some say the new leadership now faces a similar difficulty in deciding where to focus. Should they concentrate on the countryside, the rural areas, thus focusing on the classic electorate, the classic clientele of the Communist Party, given that the urban populations are increasingly becoming demanding in terms of participation and a rule of law that stands above the Communist Party and maybe even democ-ratization—or should they concentrate on preventing the rising middle classes in the urban areas from becoming too demanding by applying the carrot and stick method? I would perfectly agree that the current Chinese elites are the best the na-tion ever had; they are addressing so many tasks simultaneously with success. But is that really the whole story?

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What about these two competing factions?7KH�ILUVW�IDFWLRQ�LV�LQFOLQHG�WR�SUHVHUYLQJ�WKH�FHQWUDO�UROH�RI�WKH�&RPPXQLVW�3DUW\�

DQG�LWV�VRPHWLPHV�ROG�IDVKLRQHG�SROLWLFV�DQG�HFRQRPLFV��7KH�RWKHU�IDFWLRQ�VHHV�WKLV�period as past, and wishes to broaden the whole political structure and process and WR�WKLQN�GLIIHUHQWO\��7KH\�DFFHSW�WKH�QHHG�WR�PDLQWDLQ�WKH�&RPPXQLVW�3DUW\�EXW�ZLVK�LW�WR�PRGHUQL]H��WR�EHFRPH�D�YHU\�GLIIHUHQW�SDUW\�IURP�WKH�RQH�WKH\�ZHUH�XVHG�WR��7KDW�EDVLFDOO\�LV�D�GLYLGH�EHWZHHQ�WKH�ROG�VFKRRO��WKH�KDUGOLQHUV��DQG�WKH�PRGHUQLVWV�DQG�UHIRUPHUV��'XULQJ�WKH����\HDU�SHULRG�RI�P\�FRQWDFWV�ZLWK�&KLQD��WKHUH�ZDV�D�SHULRG�URXJKO\�LQ�WKH�����V�DQG�����V�ZKHUH�WKH�DFWXDO�JRYHUQPHQW�ZDV�LGHRORJL�FDOO\�VSOLW�EHWZHHQ� WKRVH�PLQLVWULHV�ZKLFK�ZHUH� LGHQWLILHG�ZLWK�HFRQRPLF�UHIRUP�DQG�RWKHUV�ZKLFK�ZHUH�LQFOXGHG�LQ�WKH�PRUH�UHDFWLRQDU\�SDUW�RI�JRYHUQPHQW�OLQNHG�to central planning and control. The Chinese government as an operating institution was divided. That is, of course, no longer the case. But there still are big differences and dialectics between factions and, on issue after issue, there are different schools of thought in China as there are in our countries.

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consequences of a vast motorization of China. This struggle has been going on for the ODVW����\HDUV��$W�ILUVW��WKH�LQGXVWULDO�SLOODU�IDFWLRQ�GRPLQDWHG��QRZ�WKH�HQYLURQPHQWDO�faction is becoming stronger, based on the real impacts of traffic in urban centers.

We see a similar debate within the government, the party and society about en-ergy policy and the future of coal.

7KHUH� LV� D� YHU\�SRZHUIXO� OREE\�ZKLFK� HPSKDVL]HV� WKH� LQWHUHVWV� RI�PLOOLRQV�RI�&KLQHVH�PLQHUV�OLYLQJ�RII�WKH�FRDO�LQGXVWU\��7KH\�GR�QRW�ZLVK�WR�EH��LQ�WKHLU�YLHZ��PDQHXYHUHG�E\�WKH�:HVW�LQWR�FOLPDWH�WDONV�WR�SXW�D�SULFH�RQ�FDUERQ�DQG�VDERWDJH�WKH�FRDO�LQGXVWU\�ZKLFK�LV�WKHLU�IXQGDPHQWDO�VRXUFH�RI�YDVW�SURYHQ�HQHUJ\�UHVHUYHV��2Q�WKH�RWKHU�VLGH�\RX�KDYH�DQRWKHU�PDMRU�JURXS�RI�UHIRUPHUV�DQG�FRQFHUQHG�FLWL]HQV�ZKR�VD\�WKDW�&KLQD�LV�GHVWUR\LQJ�LWVHOI�E\�H[SDQGLQJ�WKH�XVH�RI�FRDO��WKH�KHDOWK�HI�IHFWV�DUH�WUDJLF�DW�WKH�KXPDQ�OHYHO�DQG�FRVWO\�WR�WKH�HFRQRP\��WKH�HQYLURQPHQW�HIIHFWV�are disastrous within China, and China, as the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse JDVHV��LV�FRQWULEXWLQJ�PDVVLYHO\�WR�WKH�GHVWDELOL]DWLRQ�RI�WKH�JOREDO�FOLPDWH��,W�LV�QRZ�XQGHUVWRRG� WKDW�&KLQD� LWVHOI� LV�YHU\�YXOQHUDEOH� WR� WKH� LPSDFWV�RI� FOLPDWH� FKDQJH��7KLV�FUXFLDO�GHEDWH�ZLWKLQ�&KLQD�FRQWLQXHV�WRGD\�DQG�ZLOO�LQWHQVLI\�LQ�FRPLQJ�\HDUV�

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Another issue I would be interested in hearing your opinion on is that many in the West today are saying that we should be afraid of a thriving China because China, due to the population numbers you mentioned, is becoming too powerful. It’s already one of the two G-2 powers Brzezinski envisioned and by continuing to grow at the present pace it may become the only leading superpower within a couple of decades. I would agree with you that we should be more afraid of a China that is not thriving, that is in crisis or that is economically hurt. So there may be another paradox here: China’s rise is in our interest, because we want to avoid instability, and it is not.

Right. But in the end it is more in our interest that is does well, and that it remains stable, than that it doesn’t.

I agree. To summarize, let us come back to the main question in times of tran-sition: what is the perspective of China under the new leadership of Xi Jinping? There are two basic opinions around in the Western discussion today. One says that China will become a democracy and we should do everything to sustain, to help the dissidents and those sections of the population that are in principle ready to accept such a move by also paying a certain price for it, for example, in terms of economic or diplomatic disadvantages. And there is another school of thought, maybe more realistic, that says we should go step by step, and that the next step we should pursue as the West is helping China to develop the rule of law, which is still not at international standards. The main problem is that the Communist Party continues to stand above the rule of law, not vice versa.

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So the basic two options that are discussed are: will China become a democracy, or is it more realistic to have China concretize a consistent and systematic rule of law, which has not always been the case, especially not if you look at the recent scandals which were in the dozens and where people were treated very differently according to social status and their proximity to the ruling party. So in your opinion what is the next step ahead?

,�EHOLHYH�LW�LV�D�PRVW�DUURJDQW�FRQFHSW�RI�VRPH�:HVWHUQ�FRXQWULHV�WKDW�WKH\�VKRXOG�VHHN�WR�LQWUXGH�LQ�&KLQD¶V�LQWHUQDO�DIIDLUV�VR�DV�WR�³KHOS´�&KLQD��LQ�ZKDWHYHU�ZD\�WR�tackle such challenges. And it runs the risk of provoking outcomes which we would wish to avoid. This idea is founded on the presumption that the West has run the ZRUOG�VXFFHVVIXOO\�IRU�����\HDUV��ZKLFK�LW�KDVQ¶W��,W�LV�EDVHG�RQ�WKH�FRQFHSW�WKDW�WKH�:HVW�XQGHUVWDQGV�KRZ�\RX�UXQ�VRFLHWLHV�DQG�HFRQRPLHV�SURSHUO\��ZKLFK�LW�GHPRQVWUD�EO\�GRHVQ¶W��$QG�LW�SUHVXPHV�WKDW�:HVWHUQ�H[SHULHQFH�VKRXOG�EH�LPLWDWHG�LQ�WKH�YHU\�different circumstances and cultural and historic conditions and aspirations of China.

So are both strategic options—democratization versus the rule of law—just rubbish?

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,Q�WKH�FDVH�RI�&KLQD�WKH�FRQFHSW�RI�GHPRFUDF\��ZKDWHYHU�WKLV�PD\�EH�LQ�&KLQHVH�WHUPV��LV�D�OHJLWLPDWH�IRFXV�RI�SROLF\�GLVFXVVLRQ��DV�LV�DOVR��DQG�PRVW�LQWHQVHO\��WKH�LVVXH�RI�VWUHQJWKHQLQJ�WKH�UXOH�RI�ODZ��7KH�&KLQHVH�DUH�DZDUH�WKDW�WKHUH�DUH�PDQ\�GLIIHUHQW�PRGHOV�RI�GHPRFUDF\��7KHUH�LV�QR�VXFK�WKLQJ�DV�the�V\VWHP�RI�GHPRFUDF\��HYHU\�GHPRFUDF\�IXQFWLRQV�GLIIHUHQWO\�LQ�SURFHGXUDO�WHUPV��LQ�FXOWXUDO�WHUPV��LQ�LQ�stitutional terms, and in political terms. So when we talk about China becoming a GHPRFUDF\��GR�ZH�NQRZ�ZKDW�ZH�PHDQ�DQG�DUH�ZH�VXUH�WKDW�ZH�DFWXDOO\�ZRXOG�ZDQW�ZKDW�ZH�ZLVK�IRU"�,�WKLQN�ZH�GRQ¶W��/HW�PH�JLYH�\RX�D�SUDFWLFDO�H[DPSOH��(PSLULFDO�UHSRUWV�DQG�VWDWLVWLFV�VKRZ�XQDPELJXRXVO\�WKDW�WKH�PRRG�RI�WKH�&KLQHVH�SHRSOH�RQ�world issues is a lot more aggressive and nationalist than the mood of the govern�PHQW��,I�ZH�VKRXOG�WKHUHIRUH�KDYH�D�GHPRFUDF\�LQ�&KLQD�ZLWK�KXQGUHGV�RI�PLOOLRQV�RI�SHRSOH�YRWLQJ�IRU�VRPHWKLQJ��ZKDWHYHU�WKDW�PD\�EH��ZKR�LV�WKHQ�WR�EH�VXUH�WKDW�WKH� VLWXDWLRQ�ZLOO� QRW� UDSLGO\�EHFRPH� IDU�PRUH�GDQJHURXV� DQG�XQSUHGLFWDEOH� DQG�unbalanced than it is now? That is, are the Chinese leaders not right in thinking that, LQ�D�FRXQWU\�RI������ELOOLRQ�SHRSOH��WKH\�KDYH�WR�NHHS�D�PHDVXUH�RI�FRQWURO�DQG�EXLOG�

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But you can keep control in two different ways, either by an authoritarian rule or by the rule of law. There is a choice. Is that right?

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Let us conclude with an outlook. What do you think of the new leadership under Xi Jinping after the power transfer? Even if you don’t consider the fight between two factions we mentioned and which is likely to go on, what is your assessment of the new leaders as persons, as specialists, or as exponents of the Communist Party?

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Will the new team understand the risks of not addressing the huge problems of regional imbalances, inequality, and corruption and environmental degradation? Or will they ignore these problems?

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One could, of course, criticize here that serious systemic reforms towards par-ticipation are substituted by populism.

Perhaps, but I don’t believe so. Chinese leaders are clever, well informed, and SUDJPDWLF��2EYLRXVO\��WKH\�DUH�IDU�PRUH�DZDUH�RI�&KLQD¶V�SUREOHPV�WKDQ�ZH�DUH��7KH\�XQGHUVWDQG�WKDW�WKH�FXUUHQW�SDWK�RI�WKH�&KLQHVH�HFRQRP\�LV�OHDGLQJ�LQWR�PDV�VLYH�SUREOHPV��QRW�MXVW�LQ�UHODWLRQ�WR�WKH�HQYLURQPHQW�DQG�UHVRXUFH�DYDLODELOLW\��EXW�DOVR�ULVLQJ�OHYHOV�RI�LQHTXDOLW\�DQG�H[FOXVLRQ��DV�ZHOO�DV�UHJLRQDO�LPEDODQFHV��,I�\RX�WDNH�WKRVH�WKUHH�LVVXHV��HQYLURQPHQW��LQHTXDOLW\��DQG�UHJLRQDO�LPEDODQFHV�WRJHWKHU��WKHVH�KDYH�EHHQ�WKUHH�FRUH�TXHVWLRQV�RI�SROLF\�IRU� WKH�ODVW����\HDUV��,Q�UHVSRQVH��China has launched a series of specific programs, now reinforced in the investment VWUDWHJLHV�RI�WKH�WZHOIWK�ILYH�\HDU�SODQ��7KHVH�DLP�WR�UHRULHQW�WKH�&KLQHVH�HFRQRP\�WRZDUGV�D�PRUH�UHJLRQDOO\�EDODQFHG�DQG�LQFOXVLYH�DQG�OHVV�HQYLURQPHQWDOO\�GHYDV�tating path.

,Q�DOO�RI�WKLV��WKH�QRWLRQ�WKDW�WKH\�ZLOO�KDYH�WR�LQFUHDVH�SXEOLF�SDUWLFLSDWLRQ�LQ�VXSSRUW�RI�WKHLU�SROLF\�REMHFWLYHV�LV�ZLGHO\�UHFRJQL]HG�EHFDXVH�LW�LV�DQ�LQWHJUDWHG��QHFHVVDU\�SDUW�RI�LPSURYLQJ�VRFLHW\��,Q�P\�H[SHULHQFH��&KLQHVH�RIILFLDOV�WRGD\�DUH�SUHSDUHG� WR�H[FKDQJH� LGHDV�RQ�VHQVLWLYH�TXHVWLRQV�VXFK�DV�KXPDQ�ULJKWV�DQG�GH�PRFUDF\��7KHUH¶V�QRWKLQJ�\RX�FDQ¶W�WDON�DERXW��7KH�IDFW�LV��KRZHYHU��WKDW�WKH\�ZLOO�FRPH�EDFN�DW�WKH�HQG�WR�VD\��ZH�ZLOO�HYHQWXDOO\�GR�DOO�WKLV��LQFOXGLQJ�DGGUHVVLQJ�SDUWLFLSDWRU\�ULJKWV��LQ�D�ZD\�ZKLFK�LV�FRQVLVWHQW�ZLWK�SUHVHUYLQJ�WKH�VWDELOLW\�DQG�VXVWDLQLQJ�WKH�SURJUHVV�RI������ELOOLRQ�SHRSOH��7KH\�ZLOO�VD\��ZH�FDQ¶W�WDNH�ULVNV��$QG�LQ�WKLV�UHVSHFW��IUDQNO\�,�DJUHH�ZLWK�WKHP��%XW�DW�WKH�VDPH�WLPH�WKH�IDFW�LV�WKDW�WKH\�are�JUDGXDOO\�RSHQLQJ�XS�WKH�SROLWLFDO�SURFHVV�YHU\�FDXWLRXVO\��,�FDQQRW�LPDJ�LQH�VRPH�VXGGHQ�JUDQG�V\VWHP�WUDQVLWLRQ�ZKHUH�WKH\�VD\�WKDW�WKH\�DUH�QRZ�JRLQJ�WR�FKDQJH�WKH�EDVLV�RI�WKH�V\VWHP��7KDW�ZRXOG�EH�GDQJHURXV�DQG�VWXSLG��7KH\¶UH�QRW�going to do that.

The primacy of continuity and stability is also the reason why China has a five-year plan implemented in one year and a power transfer always a year after that in order to guarantee continuity and to avoid ruptures. To conclude, let us come to one final question cluster: about the interface between politics and culture in present China, which in the view of many observers is the most important issue for China’s future. Although we have a vast variety of different ethnonationalisms not only of the Uyghurs and Tibet, their difference is hardly recognized, and Confucianism is still used by the government as a social regulator for the sake of Han assimilation. Confucianism is certainly not a religion in the sense of the abrahamic religions. It’s much more a kind of “medium” of common sense that helps people to be reason-able and to behave in a certain way. It helps to keep things together, and in fact, Confucianism, with all the good things and, of course, the unavoidable things that it has produced, was also used for decades by the Chinese government, specifically by the Communist Party, as a tool of homogenization, because Confucianism favors obedience. What will the influence of Confucianism be on the future of China and the basic attitudes of its government? Will it continue to be influential, or will it

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be like in most developed countries: once a certain level of wealth is achieved, the country becomes more secular and loses its traditions?

7KLV�LV�D�YHU\�VLJQLILFDQW�TXHVWLRQ��:KDW�KDV�KDSSHQHG�FXOWXUDOO\�LQ�1HZ�&KLQD�VLQFH�������,�WKLQN��LV�WKDW�LW�ZDV�ORFNHG�LQWR�D�FRPPXQLVW�LGHRORJ\�XQGHU�WKH�SHU�VRQDO� OHDGHUVKLS�RI�0DR�IRU�GHFDGHV��7KLV�SRZHUIXO� LGHRORJ\�KDV�QRZ�ZHDNHQHG�DQG��IRU�PDQ\��FROODSVHG��ZKLFK�OHDYHV�D�FXOWXUDO�DQG�VSLULWXDO�YDFXXP��QRWDEO\�IRU�WKH�\RXQJHU�JHQHUDWLRQ��7KLV�FXOWXUDO�YDFXXP�LV�HYLGHQW�LQ�WRGD\¶V�&KLQD��:KHQ�,�ILUVW�ZHQW�WKHUH��\RX�FRXOG�WDON�WR�D�PLQLVWHU�IRU�KRXUV�DQG�KRXUV�DERXW�WKH�IXWXUH�of the Chinese people and about what kinds of strategies and policies could lead WR�D�&KLQHVH�ZD\�RI�GHYHORSPHQW�GLIIHUHQW�IURP�WKH�:HVWHUQ�ZD\��7KHUH�ZHUH�UHDO�SKLORVRSKHUV�LQ�WKH�DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ��SHRSOH�ZLWK�GHHS�WKRXJKWV��1RZ�ZKHQ�\RX�WDON�WR�DQ�RIILFLDO��LW¶V�PXFK�VKRUWHU��EHFDXVH�WKH\�DUH�EXV\�DQG�\RX�DUH�WDONLQJ�SURMHFWV�and programs.

&XOWXUDO�DWWLWXGHV�KDYH�FKDQJHG��7KHUH�LV�D�JHQHUDWLRQ�RI�\RXQJ�SHRSOH��EXW�DOVR�ODUJH�QXPEHUV�RI�SHRSOH�DFURVV�WKH�HFRQRP\��ZKR�KDYH�QRZ�GHWHUPLQHG�WKDW�WKHLU�JRDO�LQ�OLIH�LV�WR�DFTXLUH�PDWHULDO�SRVVHVVLRQV�DQG�WR�JHW�DV�ULFK�DV�SRVVLEOH��,GHRORJ\�DQG�SKLORVRSK\�KDYH�ODUJHO\�EHHQ�GLVSODFHG�E\�PDWHULDOLVP��,Q�%HLMLQJ�DQG�RWKHU�&KLQHVH�FLWLHV�WRGD\�\RX�ZLOO�ILQG�ZKROH�EORFNV�RI�VKRSV�VHOOLQJ�WKH�OX[XU\�DUWLFOHV�WKDW�PRVW�(XURSHDQV�DW�OHDVW�DUH�QRW�LQ�D�SRVLWLRQ�WR�EX\�EHFDXVH�WKH\�DUH�WRR�H[SHQ�VLYH��$OO�WKH�PRVW�IDPRXV�EUDQGV�DUH�WKHUH��ZLGHO\�DGYHUWLVHG�WR�JHQHUDWH�GHPDQG�LQ�QHZ�PDUNHWV��DQG�WKH�&KLQHVH�DUH�EX\LQJ�OLNH�FUD]\��6R�WKHUH�KDV�EHHQ�LQ�FXOWXUDO�WHUPV�D�PDVVLYH� WUDQVLWLRQ� DQG� WKHUH� LV� QR�JXLGLQJ�SKLORVRSK\�RU�SULQFLSOH�RWKHU�WKDQ�FRQVXPHULVP�WR�GHILQH�WKH�NLQG�RI�IXWXUH�WKH\�ZDQW��7KHUH�LV�D�GDQJHU�WKDW�WKLV�YDFXXP�ZLOO�EH�ILOOHG�E\�QDWLRQDOLVP��,�WKLQN�WKDW�WKH�QHZ�OHDGHUVKLS�ZLOO�KDYH�WR�FRQVLGHU�VXFK�TXHVWLRQV��WKHUH�DUH�PDQ\�ROG�0DQGDULQV�ZKR�DUH�KRSLQJ�WKDW�WKHUH�will be an attempt to recover some more traditional values to inform the process of China’s development.

How exactly is cultural change interfering with economic success?,�ZRXOG�VD\�RQH�RI�WKH�ELJJHVW�ULVNV�IRU�WKH�FRPLQJ�\HDUV�LV�WKDW�WKHUH�LV�D�UHDO�

GDQJHU�WKDW�WKH�SROLWLFDO�SURFHVV�LQ�&KLQD�ZLOO�EH�RYHUH[SRVHG�WR�WKH�LQIOXHQFH�RI�WKH�FRUSRUDWH�DQG�ILQDQFLDO�VHFWRUV��7R�VRPH�GHJUHH�WKLV�LV�DOUHDG\�KDSSHQLQJ��<RX�KDYH�PDVVLYH�VWDWH�HQWHUSULVHV�UXQ�E\�YHU\�SRZHUIXO�SHRSOH�DQG�LQWHUHVWV��7KH�JRY�HUQPHQW��HYHQ�WKH�QHZ�SUHVLGHQW��ZLOO�KDYH�WR�EH�YHU\�FDXWLRXV�EHIRUH�WKH\�WDNH�RQ�these powerful economic interests. Also, financial and political interests are inter�twined in the families of the new generation of leaders. When we talk about ques�WLRQV�RI�GHPRFUDF\��ZH�DOVR�KDYH�WR�WDNH�DFFRXQW�RI�WKH�UDSLGO\�H[SDQGLQJ�HFRQRPLF�power and influence of these major state enterprises. The danger is that these power FHQWHUV��EDVHG�RQ�HFRQRPLF�LQWHUHVW��WUDGH��DQG�ILQDQFH��ZLOO�HIIHFWLYHO\�LQIOXHQFH�WKH�GLUHFWLRQ�RI�SROLF\�LQ�ZKLFK�FDVH�HTXLW\�DQG�LQFOXVLRQ��SDUWLFLSDWLRQ��DQG�HYHQ�WKH�UXOH�RI�WKH�ODZ�PD\�EH�VHULRXVO\�HQGDQJHUHG��7KH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV�SURYLGHV�D�ZDUQ�ing of what can happen if financial and corporate interests begin to dominate the political process.

At the same time, the Chinese seem to be eager to buy…

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&KLQHVH�RIWHQ�VD\²DV�5XVVLDQV�XVHG�WR�VD\²WKDW�WKH�QHZ�PDWHULDOLVP�LQ�&KLQD�has been established as a result of Western pressure, influence, and economic interest.

7KHUH�DUH�PDQ\�SV\FKRORJLFDO�DQG�FXOWXUDO�LVVXHV�VXUURXQGLQJ�WKH�GHEDWH�EHWZHHQ�&KLQD�DQG�WKH�UHVW�RI�WKH�ZRUOG�RQ�PDWHULDOLVP�DQG�FRQVXPSWLRQ��DV�WR�ZKHWKHU�WKH\�are being pushed in China to stimulate demand through advertising and intensive marketing of Western products. There is strong pressure from the international fi�QDQFLDO�DQG�HFRQRPLF�V\VWHPV� WKDW�&KLQD�VKRXOG� LQFUHDVH�GRPHVWLF�FRQVXPSWLRQ�and internal demand not for Chinese reasons, but for the sake of stimulating the JOREDO�HFRQRP\��$OO�WKHVH�DVSHFWV�ZLOO�FRPH�WRJHWKHU�LQ�WKH�GHOLEHUDWLRQV�RI�WKH�QHZ�OHDGHUVKLS��DQG�WKH\�ZLOO�WU\�WR�ILQG�D�SDWWHUQ�RI�&KLQHVH�GHYHORSPHQW�GRPHVWLFDOO\�ZKLFK�FDQ�UHVSRQG� WR� WKLV�YHU\�FRPSOH[�VHW�RI�SUREOHPV�ZLWKLQ�D�GLIILFXOW�VHW�RI�international conditions.

… but not much left of Confucianism nor of most traditional issues, you say.:HOO��,�GRQ¶W�NQRZ��,�WKLQN�WKHVH�DUH�DOO�FXOWXUDO�PHPHV�EXLOW�LQWR�VRFLHW\��,I�\RX�

consider Confucianism, I believe that there are two fundamental teachings. One is WKDW� LQWHOOLJHQFH�� UHDVRQ�� DQG�H[SHULHQFH� VKRXOG�EH�JLYHQ�SURSHU�ZHLJKW�� DQG� WKH�RWKHU�LV�WKDW�DXWKRULW\�VKRXOG�EH�UHVSHFWHG��7KHUH�DUH�PDQ\�RWKHU�ULFK�LGHDV�DQG�WUD�GLWLRQV��EXW�,�WKLQN�WKRVH�DUH�WZR�NH\�WHQHWV��$QG�LI�WKDW¶V�WKH�FDVH��D�EDVLF�FRQWLQXLW\�LQ�&KLQD�UHPDLQV��7KH�SHRSOH�IXQGDPHQWDOO\�EHOLHYH�WKDW�WKH\�PXVW�UHVSHFW�DXWKRU�LW\��DQG�WKLV�LV�QRW�JRLQJ�WR�FKDQJH�VRRQ��6HFRQGO\�WKH\�EHOLHYH�WKDW�FRPSHWHQFH�DQG�intelligence should be treasured and respected.

,Q�WKLV�UHVSHFW��WKH�H[SOLFLW�SURFHVV�IRU�GHYHORSLQJ�DQG�WHVWLQJ�QHZ�OHDGHUV�LV�RI�SDUWLFXODU�LQWHUHVW��3RWHQWLDO�OHDGHUV�DUH�LGHQWLILHG�HDUO\�DQG�WKHQ�H[SRVHG�RYHU�\HDUV�WR�LQFUHDVLQJ�OHYHOV�RI�UHVSRQVLELOLW\�DV�PXQLFLSDO�OHDGHUV��YLFH�JRYHUQRUV��RU�YLFH�PLQLVWHUV��7KRVH�ZKR�ILQDOO\�UHDFK�WKH�WRS�XQGHUVWDQG�WKH�LVVXHV�WKRURXJKO\�IURP�SUDFWLFDO�H[SHULHQFH��WKH\�XQGHUVWDQG�WKH�V\VWHP��WKH\�KDYH�YDOXDEOH�FRQQHFWLRQV��DQG�WKH\�NQRZ�KRZ�WR�PDNH�WKLQJV�KDSSHQ��6R�WKLV�QRWLRQ�RI�NQRZOHGJH�DQG�FRP�petence as a condition for leadership stemming from Confucianism is still alive. (YHQ�WKH�HPSHURU�ZDV�RQO\�UHVSHFWHG�LI�KH�EHKDYHG�LQWHOOLJHQWO\�DQG�LI�KH�DFKLHYHG�UHVXOWV�� ,I� KH� IDLOHG��KH�ZDV� FRQVLGHUHG� WR�KDYH� ORVW� WKH�0DQGDWH�RI�+HDYHQ�DQG�could be replaced. In this sense, I don’t think the basic roots of Chinese attitudes have changed that much. But the Chinese do now face the central issue of contain�LQJ� WKH�H[FHVVLYH� OXVW� IRU�PDWHULDO�ZHDOWK�RI� WKH�\RXQJHU�JHQHUDWLRQ�DW�D� WLPH�RI�WLJKWHQLQJ�HQYLURQPHQWDO�DQG�UHVRXUFH�FRQVWUDLQWV��7KH\�DOVR�FRQIURQW�WKH�DEVHQFH�RI�HVWDEOLVKHG�YDOXHV� WR�JXLGH� WKH�FRXQWU\��DSDUW� IURP�QDWLRQDOLVP��ZKLFK�FDQ�EH�YHU\�GDQJHURXV�

Speaking of danger, another much undervalued issue is the growing influence of the military–industrial complex in China right now. It seems to be growing to an influence comparable to that in the United States. It is often not apprehended that huge amounts of money go into this complex and that the military is gaining power within the political system. Or do you think the military–industrial complex is com-pletely integrated and in solidarity with power?

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One could argue that it makes them even more dangerous.1R�� LW� LQFUHDVHV� WKHLU� UHVSRQVLELOLW\��7KH\�KDYH�D�VWURQJ� LQWHUHVW� LQ�NHHSLQJ� WKH�

HFRQRP\�UXQQLQJ�VPRRWKO\��DQG�EHFDXVH�RI� WKHVH� LQWHUHVWV� WKH\�DUH�QRW�VROHO\�IR�FXVHG�RQ�PLOLWDU\� LVVXHV��:KDW� ,�ZRXOG� VD\�DERXW� WKH�3/$� LQ� WKLV� FRQWH[W� LV� WKDW�WKH�QHZ�OHDGHUVKLS�KDV�LQGHHG�WR�ZRUU\�DERXW�RQH�DVSHFW�LQ�SDUWLFXODU��$OO�&KLQHVH�NQRZ�DQG�ZHOFRPH�WKH�IDFW�WKDW�&KLQD�LV�ULVLQJ��&KLQD¶V�ULVH��WKDW¶V�WKH�H[SUHVVLRQ��%XW�KHUH�\RX�KDYH�WZR�VFKRROV�RI�WKRXJKW��2QH�LV�WKDW�WKH�ULVH�VKRXOG�EH�D�³SHDFHIXO�ULVH´�WR�SUHVHUYH�WKH�JRRG�FRPPHUFLDO�DQG�HFRQRPLF�UHODWLRQV�RQ�ZKLFK�&KLQD¶V�GH�velopment depends in an interdependent world. A competing school of thought, with ZKLFK�3/$�LQWHUHVWV�DUH�DVVRFLDWHG��VWURQJO\�FRQVLGHUV�WKDW�&KLQD�KDV�EHHQ�H[SORLWHG�and mistreated in the past and that as China regains a strong international position, confrontation with the established powers is inevitable. This view considers that a SHDFHIXO�ULVH�ZRXOG�JHW�&KLQD�ORFNHG�LQWR�GHSHQGHQW�HFRQRPLF�UHODWLRQVKLSV��QRWDEO\�with the Western powers. A peaceful rise is, of course, sensible in an interdependent ZRUOG�HFRQRP\��EXW�LW�LV�QRW�XQGLVSXWHG��+LVWRU\�VKRZV�WKDW�LW�LV�QRW�&KLQHVH�WUDGLWLRQ�WR�GRPLQDWH�DQG�FRORQL]H�RWKHU�FRXQWULHV�VR�DV�WR�H[SORLW�WKHLU�UHVRXUFHV��7KH�(XURSH�ans and the Americans have done this in the past: the Chinese never have.

With the exception of Tibet, of course.<HV��EXW�7LEHW�LV�D�VSHFLDO�DQG�FRPSOLFDWHG�FDVH�LQ�PDQ\�ZD\V��DQG�D�KLVWRULF�FDVH�

of a certain period. It is not in China’s culture to take over other countries at all. So WKH�UROH�RI�WKH�PLOLWDU\�LV�SUHGRPLQDQWO\�GHIHQVLYH�LQ�WKHLU�FRQFHSW��7KH\�GRQ¶W�KDYH�D�WKRXVDQG�PLOLWDU\�EDVHV�DFURVV�WKH�ZRUOG�OLNH�WKH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV�DQG�WKH\�GR�QRW�VHH�WKHPVHOYHV�DV�JXDUGLDQV�RI�ZRUOG�RUGHU��%XW�WRGD\�\RX�KDYH�WKLV�LQWHUQDO�VWUXJJOH�ZLWKLQ�&KLQD�DV�,�KDYH�H[SODLQHG�EHWZHHQ�WKH�SURSRQHQWV�RI�WKH�SHDFHIXO�ULVH�DQG�other more nationalist groups which are people who still resent how China has been WUHDWHG�LQ�WKH�SDVW�FHQWXULHV�E\�WKH�(XURSHDQV�DQG�PRUH�UHFHQWO\�E\�WKH�$PHULFDQV��7KH\�UHMHFW�WKH�QRWLRQ�RI�SHDFHIXO�ULVH�DQG�DQWLFLSDWH�WKDW�WKH\�ZLOO�KDYH�WR�FRQIURQW�WKH�:HVW�WR�GHIHQG�&KLQHVH�LQWHUHVWV��7KH\�ZLVK�WR�EHFRPH�D�VWURQJ�PLOLWDU\�SRZHU�DJDLQ�DQG�WR�UHJDLQ�&KLQD¶V�ULJKWIXO�SODFH�E\�DIILUPLQJ�D�YHU\�GLIIHUHQW�SKLORVRSK\��These two schools of thought have been contending for decades.

7KH� IXWXUH�RI� UHODWLRQV�EHWZHHQ�&KLQD�� WKH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV��(XURSH�� -DSDQ�� DQG�other Asian countries depends on the outcome of this internal debate, where the West has little access. One thing is sure, however: the outcome will also depend YHU\�PXFK�RQ�KRZ�&KLQD�LV�WUHDWHG�E\�RWKHU�FRXQWULHV��HVSHFLDOO\�E\�-DSDQ��WKH�8QLW�HG�6WDWHV��DQG�(XURSH��ZKHUH�WKHUH�DUH�SDUWLFXODU�VHQVLELOLWLHV�LQ�SOD\��7RGD\��\RX�

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Right. But what I would say on the other hand is that most of China’s neighbors are scared indeed by its increasingly aggressive behavior over the past two years. While I agree with you on the nonexpansive nature of China throughout its history, China is intentionally building a blue-water fleet to expand its boundaries. As you know, one of the standard measurements of what a big global power was in history has always been who had the biggest and most powerful battleship and how far it could sail. Is it green or blue water capable? That has always been one standard measure to determine which power was the most powerful in a given age China is building a blue-sea fleet not by chance, and it is starting to run an aircraft carrier fleet in order to compete with the United States for the control of the routes for key resources like oil, with important consequences. The power which controlled the oil and key resource routes through the international oceans in the past had the right to have them traded exclusively in its domestic currency, which is the reason why the US dollar became the world’s de facto reserve currency. By building its own blue-water fleet, China is not only on its way to secure its own resources, but is attacking the dominance of the US dollar. The United States has understood this very well, and thus the signs of naval confrontation multiply, for example, in the dispute about the Spratly and Paracel Islands in the South China Sea throughout 2012 and 2013.

,�DJUHH��EXW�RQO\�SDUWLDOO\��3RZHU�QRZDGD\V�KDV�QRW�PXFK�WR�GR�ZLWK�D�VHFRQG�KDQG�8NUDLQLDQ�DLUFUDIW�FDUULHU��$QG�WKH�IDFW�WKDW�&KLQD�DV�D�JUHDW�SRZHU�LV�H[SDQG�LQJ�LWV�PLOLWDU\� LV�QRW�UHDOO\�VXUSULVLQJ��7KH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV� LV�VSHQGLQJ�DW� OHDVW����WLPHV�DV�PXFK�DQG�LV�VXUURXQGLQJ�&KLQD�ZLWK�EDVHV�WKURXJK�LWV�DQQRXQFHG�³SLYRW´�WR�$VLD��FOHDUO\�VHHQ�E\�&KLQD�DV�D�VWUDWHJ\�WR�³FRQWDLQ´�LWV�ULVH��,W�LV�WUDJLF�WKDW�WKLV�militarization is emerging as a spiral in a new arms race in Asia, a waste of resources where scarce resources are needed for critical social, environmental, and develop�ment purposes. Perhaps with leadership issues resolved in the United States and &KLQD�LW�PD\�EH�SRVVLEOH�IRU�WKH�OHDGHUV�RQ�ERWK�VLGHV�WR�WU\�WR�FRQWDLQ�WKLV�HVFDOD�tion.

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So in conclusion do you think that the development of China may indirectly de-pend on that of the United States, and vice versa?

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Is it really the case that they’ll never understand each other? If so many Chinese come to visit the United States, and many Chinese of the middle classes nowadays are attending an American university at least for a couple of months? Are you not a little bit too pessimistic?

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What is the outlook?Forgive me for closing on a philosophical note. The future of China and its re�

lations with the Western world as it gains in international power and influence is XOWLPDWHO\�D�TXHVWLRQ�RI�EDODQFH�DQG�PXWXDO�XQGHUVWDQGLQJ��7KHUH�DUH�PDMRU�RSSRU�tunities for cooperation but also serious risks of confrontation. Thoughtful leader�ship and restraint will be needed on both sides. The fundamental philosophies are different. In our own Western philosophies going back to the Greeks, there has DOZD\V�EHHQ�D�IRFXV�RQ�WKH�TXHVWLRQ�RI�ZKDW�LV�WKH�SURSHU�UHODWLRQ�EHWZHHQ�WKH�LQGL�

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