ARRESTING PROJECT SLIPPAGE IN WATER RESOURCES AND INFRASTRUCTURAL SECTORS

Dr. AMARTYYA KUMAR BHATTACHARYA

  Chairman and Managing Director,

MultiSpectra Consultants,

23, Biplabi Ambika Chakraborty Sarani,

Kolkata – 700029,

West Bengal,

INDIA.

ABSTRACTABSTRACT Project slippage Is a common phenomenon. Engineers have been trying to find workable solutions to arrest project

slippage. Activity networking technique initiated in USA in the late 1950s gained

immense popularity. However, the real problem on controlling slippage still remains largely unsolved.

The work relates to water resources and infrastructure projects. First of all the various steps involved in planning and implementation

of water and infrastructure projects are outlined in general. The different engineering and managerial reasons causing project

slippage are identified. An innovative methodology aiming towards arresting slippage of water

resource and infrastructure projects is developed. Due considerations are given on quality control, safety and public awareness.

The proposed methodology is validated by case studies on six real life projects completed by the author as engineer in charge.

INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION

Hydraulics and hydrology are important for water systems planning with focus on water management, the central issue being water availability.

The hydrologic cycle consists of four interlinked subsystems : the atmospheric system the surface system the soil subsystem and the groundwater subsystem

The total dynamics and water balance system is given by continuity equation

TYPES OF WATER RESOURCES AND RELATED INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS

(A) Surface Water consisting of sea water and other sources of water :• Dams and Hydroelectric Projects.• Barrage, Canal and Headworks.• Irrigation and Flood Control Projects.• Water Intake, Water Treatment and Water Supply and Distribution Network.

( )dS

P E T Rdt

where,

P =precipitation; E =evaporation

R =overflow or run-off; T =evapotranspiration and,

S =storage

River Training, Embankment Protection and Dredging. Wetland Preservation and Improvement. Sea Water Desalination Projects.(B) Groundwater : Exploration and conservation of groundwater. Rain water harvesting and recharging of groundwater in the subsoil aquifer. Prevention of groundwater contamination. Protection against arsenic and saline water intrusion in groundwater. Prevention of groundwater lowering and minimising possibility of large scale land

subsidence.(C) Sewage Treatment and Environment Protection : Sewage and Effluent Treatment. Disposal and/or recycling of treated sewage and/or effluent. Storm Water Drainage with disposal and/or recycling. Protection of the overall environment.(D) Other Infrastructural Projects : Urban and rural buildings and housing complexes. Schools, educational institutions, hospitals, hotels, shopping malls, multiplexes. Roads and highways, railways. Bridges, Flyovers, Tunnels, Underpasses, Pedestrian overbridges, Culverts. IT and Telecommunication. Power Generation, Transmission and Distribution Network. Heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC).

Many of the delay causing problems are of general nature. Water and infrastructure projects present some special problems. Unmanaged delays get compounded and lead to project slippage beyond control.

Delays leading to project slippage can be effectively arrested through proper planning and sustained effort to control slippage during implementation.

Activity Network technique PERT and CPM are in use for about fifty years now in India and abroad.

Introduction of computers and PM softwares like MS Project and Primavera Project Planner for planning, scheduling, monitoring and control.

Inspite of these state-of-the-art applications projects do slip and at times go out of hands.

The author has developed an innovative model based on substantial modification and improvement of existing techniques that are being used aiming towards arresting project slippage.

REVIEW OF LITERATUREREVIEW OF LITERATURE

The author has gone through the libraries of Bengal Engineering and Science University (BESU), Shibpur, The Institution of Engineers (India), Institution of Civil Engineers (UK) and other professional institutions and the Internet and collected large number of relevant works.

The author also spent six months in the UK and USA visiting universities, interacting with senior faculties and studying in the libraries as follows : Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA. Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA. Wake Forest University, Winston Salem, NC, USA. Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, U.K. Cobb County Public Library, Atlanta, GA, USA. Newcastle under Lyme Library, Staffordshire, UK.

Relevant contributions reviewed have been summarized under the following categories:

Water Resources and Infrastructure Projects - Engineering and Management Aspects :Basu (1998)

Sengupta (2000)

Crookall (2000)

Dasgupta (2001)

Roesaner (2001)

Cai (2001)

Hayes (2004)

Bhattacharya et al. (2004)

Zhong et al. (2004)

Maity (2004)

Bandyopadhyay (2004)

Gupta (2004)

Banyard (2004)

Youngjae et al. (2005)

Paul Jowitt (2006)

Management Aiming Towards Arresting Project Slippage –

Cooke (1980)

Parker (1985)

Tarricone (1992)

Kerzner et al. (1992)

Kilbert et al. (1995)

Pinto (1996)

Gioia (1996)

Black (1996)

Melanson (1998)

Haransky (2000)

Basak and Bhattacharya (2004)

Mbabazi et al. (2005)

Kathrin Masters et al. (2006)

Application of Management Techniques in Water Resources and Infrastructure Projects –

Morris (1980)

Slevin and Pinto (1986)

Curmudgeon (1994)

Klien (1996)

Knowels (2001)

Jung and Woo (2004)

Hegazy et al. (2005)

Ingle and Ingle (2006)

The review of literature reveals that there are apparent shortcomings in the work done so far and there is substantial scope for further detailed work in the related areas.

PLANNING AND IMPLEMENTATION OF PLANNING AND IMPLEMENTATION OF PROJECTSPROJECTS

SURFACE WATER PROJECTS

These include sea water and water from other sources like rivers, canals, lakes and other water bodies.

The projects involve dams, hydroelectric projects, multi-purpose river valley project; barrage, irrigation canal and headworks, water intake, treatment and distribution, river training, etc.

Many of these surface water projects relate to open-channel flow. Where the depth of flow does not change it is steady flow and unsteady flow if the depth changes with time.

The open channel flow can be Uniform Flow and Non-Uniform or varied Varied Flow.

The varied flow can be further classified into gradually varied flow (G.V.F.) and rapidly varied flow (R.V.F.).

The total head (H) at a point A in an open channel of large slope may be expressed as;

where, zA = the elevation at point A above the datum plane

dA = the depth at point A below water surface

= the velocity head of flow

For a channel of small slope, ~ 0 the total energy at the channel section is,

where, is the energy coefficient for gradually varied flow considering non-uniform velocity

distribution. According to Bernoulli’s energy equation the total head will be the same in all

sections of the open channel. The theoretical discharge (Q) of an open channel flow may be expressed by,

2

cos2AV

H z dA A g

2

2AVg

2.2VH z dg

2 ( ).2 2

211

g y hfQ AA

A

where, A1 = cross-sectional area at section 1

A2 = cross-sectional area at section 2

y = drop of water surface between sections 1 and 2

hf =drop in the energy line between sections 1 and 2 The velocity of uniform flow in an open channel can be expressed by the classical

formulae,

Chezy’s formula

where, V = mean velocity in ft/sec

R = hydraulic radius in ft and

C = a factor of flow resistance, called Chezy’s C

S = Slope of the energy line

Manning’s formula

where, V = mean velocity in ft/sec

R = hydraulic radius in ft

S = slope of the energy line

n = coefficient of roughness, specifically known as Manning’s n

1/2 1/2. .V C RS C R S

1.49 2/3 1/2.V R Sn

Where metric unit is used Manning’s formula may be expressed as, Flood routing is important to solve flood-control problems and to plan related river

valley projects. Saint Venant’s continuity equation for gradually varied unsteady flow is useful for these problems.

The general method of characteristics is based on the solution of following equations:

where, is slope of the water surface

is change of depth of flow with respect to time

is change of velocity with respect to distance

1. .dy V V V So Sfg gx tdx

. .dx dty y dyx t

. .dx dtV V dVx t

yx

yt

Vx

2 / 3 1/ 21. .V R Sn

1. .dy V V V So Sfg gx tdx

2/ 3 1/21. .V R Sn

1. .dy V V V So Sfg gx tdx

is change of velocity with respect to time

is total change in depth of flow

is total change in velocity of flow

is slope of the channel bed

is slope of the energy line

Specific energy of a channel section is the energy per unit weight of water measured from the channel bottom and is useful for hydrologic planning. This is expressed as,

for a channel of small slope and = 1

Critical state of flow indicates that for a given discharge the specific energy is minimum, that is,

Vt

dy

dV

So

Sf

2cos .

2VE dg

22VE yg

0dEdy

At the critical state of flow, the velocity head is equal to half the hydraulic depth. That is,

Selection of the type of dam and the turbine for a hydel project is a key issue. The turbine may be one or more of the following types :

Peltion Turbine – Impulse or Velocity turbine with tangential flow Kaplan Turbine – Reaction or Pressure turbine with axial flow Francis Turbine – Reaction or Pressure turbine with radial flow

The specific speed (NS) of the turbine is given by :

where, N = turbine speed in RPM

P = Power in KW delivered by the turbine

H = Effective head in metres (M)

All homologous turbines have the same specific speed (NS)

Planning of surface water projects involve : Locating the source, possible yield and reliability Land availability and acquisition Existing farm land, villages and human habitation Impact on the environment Relief and rehabilitation to the project affected people.

22 2V Dg

5/4N PN

S H

Order should be placed only on pre-qualified contractors with adequate technical competence.

The work should be analysed and broken down in sufficient details to assess the detailed activities and work packages by a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS).

FIG.1 shows the WBS for a typical surface water project. FIG.2. Shows the WBS for a typical barrage project civil work.

SURFACE WATER PROJECT

CANAL SYSTEM

CANALS DISTRIBUTORY HEAD WORKS

ROADS BRIDGES DRAINS SYPHON & AQUEDUCT

LAND ACQST

SITE PREP

EXCVN

EMBNKMNT

DRESSING

LINING

TURFING

LAND ACQ

SITE PREP

EXCVN

DRESSING

LINING

CONST STRUC

FABRI GATES

INSTL GATES

TEST GATES

BOX CUT

EMBNKMNT

ROAD CONST

WEARING COURSE

EXCVN

LEAN CONC

RCC WORK

ROAD DECK SLAB

FOOT PATH

HAND RAILING

WEARING COURSE

EXCV

CEM. CONC.

MASONRY

FINISHING

EXCAVATION

LEAN CONCT.

RCC WORK

MASONRY

FOOT PATH

HAND RAILING

TESTING

FINISHING

FIG.1 : WBS FOR A TYPICAL SURFACE WATER

PROJECT

BARRAGE HEADWORKS

BARRAGE CIVIL WORKS

UNDER SLUICE

BAY

SPILL WAY RIGHT & LEFT

ABUTMENT FLANK WALL

RIGHT & LEFT

UNDER SLUICE FLANK WALL

SHEET PILE CUT

OFF WALL

WELL SINKING

ROAD BRIDGE

EXCVN

CEM. CONC.

MASONRY

EMBNKMNT

R.R. STONE PACKING

EXCVN

CEM. CONC.

MASONRY

EMBNKMNT

R.R. STONE PACKING

EXCVN.

CEM. CONC.

MASONRY

EMBNKMNT

EXCVN

CEM. CONC.

MASONRY

EMBNKMNT

SHEET PILE DRIVING

DIVIDE WALL FDN.

PILE FDN

RCC GIRDER

RIOAD DECK SLAB

FOOT PATH

HAND RAILING

WEARING COURSE

FIG.2 : WBS FOR A TYPICAL BARRAGE

PROJECT CIVIL WORK

R.R. STONE PACKING R.R. STONE

PACKING

GROUND WATER PROJECTS Ground water forms an integral part of the overall hydrological system. To mitigate the ever increasing demand for clean water people largely depend on

groundwater which is pumped out at an alarming rate causing lowering of sub-soil water table.

Recharging of aquifer by natural infiltration does not compensate for the excessive withdrawal.

This results are intrusion of arsenic and other minerals, saline water and possibility of large land subsidence.

Due to lowering of water table the soil below the new water table gets consolidated and the settlement(s) can be estimated from the following expression according to Meyerhof :

where, p0 = initial stress

p = incremental stress

mV = coefficient of volume change and,

C = a constant depending on the type of soil

0

0 0

1 log ande

p p

C pS

0

. .V

S m pdz

On the basis of Terzaghi’s theory on compressibility of cohesive soil and other later developments, the logarithmic approach can be adopted to calculate the land subsidence under the effect of over-extraction of groundwater.

where, Z1 = thickness of soil layer prior to compression

Pi1 = intergranular pressure when ground water table is at initial piezometric level

Pi2 = increased intergranular pressure when water table is at final piezometric

level after drawdown.

mV= coefficient of volume compressibility

; CC is the compression index and e1 the void ratio of the soil layer prior to

compression.

The groundwater projects may be considered under major groups and as – Groundwater exploration and conservation, Rain water harvesting, Prevention of groundwater contamination, Protection against arsenic and saline water intrusion, prevention of lowering of ground water table and preventing possibility of land subsidence.

A Deep Tube Well Project is a representative ground water project. Fig.3 shows the WBS for a typical ground water project.

1 2 1. .log( / )

u u i iZ C P PS

1 1C

u

CCe

Fig.4 shows the sequence of events for a typical deep tube well project.

SEWAGE TREATMENT AND ENVIRONMENT PROTECTION These projects broadly include faecal sewage treatment plant; effluent treatment plant;

disposal and/or recycling of treated sewage and/or effluent; storm water drainage system; protection of the environment; disposal of solid waste, medical waste; radio active waste etc.

A storm water drainage system is considered as a representative of such projects. Fig.5 shows the WBS for a typical sewage treatment plant. Fig.6 shows the key aspects in the planning and execution of a typical storm water drainage

projectGROUND WATER

PROJECT

SITE INVESTGN

PROJ REPORT IMPL STRGY

PROC- URMNT

EXCUTN

TOPOGRAPH

BORE LOG

GEDLOGY DATA

WATER TABL

AQUIFER DATA

SAFE YIELD

SUSTAINED YIELD

OPTIMUM YIELD

WELL LOCN

WELL SIZE

WELL SPACING

SAFE PUMPING RATE

PUMPING PAT

CAP COST

TIME SCH

PROJ PHSNG

WATER QLTY

RES MOBLSN

SITE PREP

SITE ACCSS

STATUTORY CLEARANCE

EIA

CLEARANCE TO START

CONST

PRE-QUALIFY BIDDER

ISSUE TENDR

RECV TENDR

NEGOTIATE

PLACE ORDER

SITE MOBLZN

PLANT & EQP

MANPOWER

ENAB WORK

EXECUTE WORK AS PLANNED

COMPL WRK

TEST YLD

TEST WATER

CLN UP STPROJ IMPACT

HANDOVR PROJ

FIG.3 : WBS FOR A TYPICAL

GROUND WATER PROJECT

SITE INVESTIGATION – TOPOGRAPHY, BOREHOLE AND GEOLOGIC DATA

WATER TABLE AND AQUIFER DATA

ASCERTAIN SAFE YIELD, SUSTAINED YIELD AND OPTIMUM YIELD

PROJECT REPORT – LOCATION, SIZE, SPACING OF WELLS, PUMPING RATE, TIME & PATTERN

CAPITAL COST AND TIME SCHEDULE

PROJECT PHASING AND WATER QUALITY

PROJECT IMPACT – DRAINAGE AND LAND SUBSIDENCE

PROJECT GO-AHEAD

FINALIZE LOCATION AND IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGY

RESOURCE MOBILIZATION AND SITE PREPARATION

LEGAL AND INSTITUTIONAL ISSUES – SITE ACCESS, STATUTORY CLEARANCE AND ENVIRONMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS

ISSUE TENDER TO PRE-QUALIFIED BIDDERS AND PLACE ORDER

SITE MOBILIZATION – PLANT, EQUIPMENT AND MANPOWER

EXECUTE WORK IN PLANNED SEQUENCE AND PHASES

COMPLETE WORK, TEST SAFE YIELD AND WATER QUALITY

HAND OVER PROJECT AND SUBMIT COMPLETION REPORT

FIG.4 : SEQUENCE OF EVENTS FOR A DEEP TUBE WELL PROJECT

SEWAGE TREATMENT PLANT

PROJECT FEASIBILITY

CONTRACTING PROJECT IMPLEMTN

COMMISSIONING

POPULATION TO BE SERVED

VOL OF RAW SEWAGE

STUDY ALT PROCESS

DECIDE PROCESS & PLANT CAP

TOPOGRAPHY & SUB-SOIL DATA

CAPITAL COST & TIME SCHEDULE

FINALISE SCHEME

E.I.A.

BIDDERS’ PRE-QUALIFCN

PREP BID DOCUMENT

BID INVITN

RECV BIDS

NEGOTIATE WITH BIDDERS

PLACE ORDER

RECV GO AHEAD

LOCATE INTERFRNCE

MOBILISE RESOURCES

SYSTEM & PLANT DESIGN

LAND ACQSN

SITE ACCESS

CIVIL WORK

SUPPLY PLANT & EQPT

EQP INSTLN

CONNECT UP

SUPPLY PWR & SERVICES

TEST & TRIAL

PROVSNL ACCEPNCE

CONTRACT CLOSURE

COMPLE-TION REPORT

FIG.5 : WBS FOR A TYPICAL SEWAGE TREATMENT PLANT

SITE INVESTIGATION AND TOPOGRAPHY

DRAIN SIZE, PIPE DIA, BED SLOPE, JUNCTION / OUTFALL

SELECT PIPE MATERIAL, INVERT, GRADIENT, FALLS, BOOSTERS

LEGAL AND INSTITUTIONAL ISSUES

LAND ACQUISITION, SITE ACCESS, STATUTORY CLEARANCE, EIA

LOCATE POSSIBLE INTERFERENCE WITH OTHER FACILITIES

CAPITAL COST, TIME SCHEDULE, PROJECT PHASING

FINALISE SCHEME AND MOBILISE RESOURCES

OBTAIN PERMISSION TO START CONSTRUCTION

ISSUE TENDER, PLACE ORDER ON PRE-QUALIFIED BIDDER

MOBILISE AT SITE AND START WORK

ENSURE HEALTH, SAFETY, ENVIRONMENT, QA/QC

EXECUTE WORK IN PLANNED SEQUENCE AND PHASES

TEST EACH SECTION AND TOTAL PROJECT ON COMPLETION

RECTIFY DEFECTS AND EXECUTE FINAL ACCEPTANCE TEST

HAND OVER COMPLETED PROJECT

SUBMIT PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT

PROJECT START

PROJECT FINISH

FIG.6 : KEY ASPECTS FOR A TYPICAL STORM WATER DRAINAGE PROJECT

OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS Projects of various disciplines and complexities come under infrastructure. Broadly there are : Buildings; Roads, Railways, Bridges and Tunnels; Power Generation, Transmission and Distribution; Hospitals and Health Centres; Educational Institutions; Hotels and Hospitality Centres; Markets, Shopping Malls; Entertainment Centres; IT and Communication.

Planning and implementation should be done with a holistic approach keeping in mind the ultimate beneficiary the common man.

Protecting and safeguarding life and property of project affected people is important.

Utmost attention should be paid to human aspects and public awareness.

Project evaluation should be done in complete transparency.

Food security of the country deserves close consideration.

Protection of the environment should be a top priority.

Resource mobilisation and steady cash flow must be ensured.

Implementation in conformity with approved schedules is important.

Slippages should be anticipated in advance and pro-active action taken to arrest slippage.

Fig.7 shows the WBS for a typical small building project.

BUILDING

SITE PREP CIVIL WORK STRL WORK SANITARY & PLUMBING

ELECT WORK

FINISH-ING

WORK

SITE CLRNG

SETTING OUT

EXCVN

TERMITE TREATMENT

BACK FILL FDN

FDN LEAN CONCRT

BEND & FIX REINF

FIX FORM WORK

CONCRT FDN

MASONRY UPTO PLINTH

PROC STEEL

FABRCT STEEL

ERECT STEEL

ROOF SHEETING

PROC PIPES

FIX WATER PIPES

LAY SEWER LINES

R.W. PIPES

PROC ELECT MTRL

FIG.7 : WBS FOR A TYPICAL SMALL BUILDING PROJECT

GLAZINGBATH & TOILET

PLINTH FILLING DPC

MASONRY SUPER STR

CONC. IN LINTEL

LOUVRE

VENTILATOR

SANITARY FITTINGS

TESTING

CONNECT UP

ELECT WIRING

ELECT FITTINGS

PUMPS

AIR COND

WATER HEATER

TESTING

CONNECT UP

PLASTER

PAINTING

WATER PROOFING

DOORS & WINDOWS

BOUNDARY WALL

APPROACH ROAD

CAUSES OF PROJECT SLIPPAGECAUSES OF PROJECT SLIPPAGE

Causes of project slippage are many, some of which are common to all projects. Some causes are special for water and infrastructure projects. Slippage is more frequent in developing countries like India as compared to the

developed world. Many of the causes are interwoven and multiple causes frequently occur

simultaneously. The major causes are :

Planning – Projects taken up without enough home work. Change – Change in the course of execution due to sufficient detailed planning in

advance. Poor Management – Delay due to lapses in management. Scheduling – Initial schedule promising early completion without considering the

ground realities. Management Support – Lack of top management support. Funding – Lack to regular smooth cash flow. Cost Containment – Cost over run leading to slippage. Resources – Lapses in optimum resources deployment – man, material, machinery

and money. Information Management – Lack of accurate and timely feed back and poor

coordination.

Employment Generation – Water and infrastructure projects must generate enough employment on a sustainable basis.

In India it is said “Jobless development is a joyless development”. Motivation – Project success largely depends on getting the best output from the team

and each workman. This calls for incentive to create motivation. The level of motivation (M) that can be induced in a construction worker may be written as,

M = P x I

where, M = Level of Motivation

P = Probability of success

I = Post-implementation incentive value

wherever P or I or both are less, the degree of motivation is likely to drop down. Conversely, medium probability of success and fair incentive value gives moderately high level of motivation.

Risk Analysis – Many water and infrastructure projects are taken up without prior in-depth assessment of the consequent risk involved.

Total Involvement – Involvement of the Government, the community and all the stakeholders are significant factors for project success.

The broad reasons causing project slippage may be in Engineering and/or in Management. The delaying factors may be :

Internal – Within the control of the project authorities. External – Beyond the control of the project authorities. The impact of external factors

on the project may however, he minimised by re-sequencing the project phases and re-arranging the order of priorities of intermediate stages.

FIG. 8 shows some of the factors causing project delay.

DELAYING FACTORS

INTERNAL FACTORS EXTERNAL FACTORS

ACCESS TO SITE ACT OF GOD

CLEARANCE FROM LOCAL HEAVY RAIN

AUTHORITIES STORM AND FLOOD

PROJECT FUNDING POWER FAILURE

CONTRACTORS’ MOBILIZATION WATER SUPPLY

AVAILABILITY OF DRAWINGS STOPPAGE

SUPPLY OF MATERIALS BY OWNER GOVERNMENT ACTS

CONTRACTORS’ MATERIAL, LABOUR UNREST

EQUIPMENT AND LABOUR STRIKE / BANDH

IDENTIFYING PROBLEM AREAS WORK TO RULE

DECISION ON REMEDIAL MEASURES EPIDEMIC

CONTRACTORS’ PRODUCTIVITY LOCAL FESTIVALS

SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENT

FIG.8 : FACTORS CAUSING PROJECT DELAY

AN INNOVATIVE METHODOLOGY FOR AN INNOVATIVE METHODOLOGY FOR ARRESTING PROJECT SLIPPAGEARRESTING PROJECT SLIPPAGE

• If a completely new methodology for arresting slippage is attempted it would be highly mathematical and will not have much use to the industry. Therefore, attempt has been made by the author to develop a technique which is based on sufficient modification and improvement on existing popular techniques aiming towards arresting slippage on water resource and other infrastructure projects.

• The approach is – identify the problem; analyse the causes; quantify the slippage; evaluate the overall impact on the project and take appropriate remedial measures or corrective action.

• The project response to corrective action applied has to be measured. In case of unsatisfactory project response the corrective action has to be revised. The cycle needs to be repeated, till project responds well and the slippage gets under control.

• Reliable feedback in good time and total involvement of all concerned are very important. Shortening data processing and transmittal time are equally important for success in arresting project slippage.

WORK BREAKDOWN STRUCTURE (WBS) WBS consists of breaking down the project into manageable work packages (WP) with a

number of activities under each package. It is a hierarchical representation of the project work contents by which the project is divided into progressively smaller and smaller elements.

WP is the work required to complete a specific job or process. Interrelationships amongst activities are normally not shown in WBS. WBS may be used to detail out the work packages and the list of activities and also

develop the activity network by introducing the relationships amongst the activities. The proposed planning sequence is :

PROJECT WP ACTIVITY LIST INTERRELATIONSHIP NETWORK

FIG.9 shows WBS for construction of a small building

FIG.10 shows the activity network based on the WBS in FIG.9.

FIG.11 illustrates the components of WBS shown in FIG.9.

CRITICAL PATH METHOD (CPM) Both CPM and Programme Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) were initiated in

the USA in late nineteen fifties and are in use worldwide. Computer programmes and algorithms of CPM and PERT are widely available. Calculation of Critical Path Scheduling :

The project network may be with Activity on Node (AON) or Activity on Arrow (AOA). For each activity :

Start event or node is i

Finish event or node is j

So, the activity is represented as i, j

Assuming time at each event as x1, x2, x3, … , xn

n = total number of activities

So, the project will start at ‘0’ time with event x0.

Fig.9 : WBS for construction of a small building

Fig.10 : Network based on WBS in Fig.9

LEVEL I THE PROJECT – CONSTRUCTION OF A SMALL BUILDING

LEVEL II WORK PACKAGES – 4 NOS.WP 1SITE PREPARATIONWP 2CIVIL WORKWP 3STRUCTURAL WORKWP 4MISCELLANEOUS WORK

LEVEL III ACTIVITIES – 10 NOS.A1 SITE LEVELLINGA2 SETTING OUTA3 CIVIL DESIGNA4 CIVIL CONSTRUCTIONA5 STRUCTURAL DESIGNA6 STRUCTURAL FABRICATIONA7 STRUCTURAL ERECTIONA8 SANITARY AND PLUMBING WORKA9 ELECTRICAL WORKA10 FINISHING WORK

FIG.11 : COMPONENTS OF WBS SHOWN IN FIG.9

For each activity successor event time must be larger than the predecessor event time

Duration of activity i, j = Dij

So, event time j, xj > xi + Dij

CPM scheduling problem is to minimise the project completion time (xn)Subject to x0 = 0

Minimise, Z = xn

For each activity (i, j ) xj – xi – Dij > 0 The earliest event time algorithm can be computed as

Earliest start, ES (i, j ) = E (i)The earliest finish time of each activity (i, j ) can be calculated by

EF (i, j ) = E (i) + Dij

The latest event time at which each event j (Lj) can occur is,

LF (i, j ) = L ( j ) The total start time LS (i, j ) for each activity (i, j ) may be computed as,

LS ( i, j ) = L ( j ) – Dij

On the critical path all events will have equal earliest and latest times

E (i ) = L (i )Activity (i, j ) will be critical if it satisfies the following :

E ( i ) = L ( i )E ( j ) = L ( j )E ( i ) + Dij = L ( j )

Also, for all activities on the critical path Earliest start time = Latest start time

Hence, ES (i, j) = LS (i, j)To avoid delay in the project all activities (i, j) on the critical path must be scheduled to begin at the earliest start time Ei.

ACTIVITY FLOATS AND SCHEDULESFree Float = Amount of delay in activity (i, j) without delaying subsequent activities

So, Free Float FF (i, j) = E (j) – E (i) – Dij

Independent Float = Amount of delay without delaying subsequent activities or restricting the scheduling of preceding activities.Hence, Independent Float,

IF (i, j) = 0E (j) – L (i) – Dij

Total float = Maximum delay permitted without delaying the project

Total Float = TF (i, j) = L(j) – (Ei) – Dij

PRECEDENCE DIAGRAMMING METHOD (PDM) This is a modified form of AON network with activity in rectangular boxes. Logical sequence represented by four basic relationships –

Finish to Start FSStart to Start SSFinish to Finish FFStart to Finish SF

With introduction of lead and lag time constraints the relationships are :FS Lead, FS Lag, SS Lead, SS Lag, FF Lead, FF Lag, SF Lead, SF Lag

The computation with these lead and lag are more complicated variations on the basic calculations for critical path scheduling. A start-to-start lead would modify the calculation of the earliest start time (Ei) to consider if the necessary lead constraints was met :

where, Ssij represents a start-to-start lead between activity (ij) and any of the activities starting on event j.

Presentation of Schedules Good presentation enables understanding the magnitude of activities and their inter-relationships. A useful variation on project network diagram is to draw a time-scaled network, also called a CPM Time Bar Diagram. FIG.12 illustrates the Activity Floats – TF, FF and IF on a bar chart presentation of the network. FIG.13 illustrates a TIME SCALED NETWORK Diagram or a CPM – Time Bar Diagram. Other graphical representations are also useful in project monitoring. FIG.14 shows the percentage completion versus time for alternative schedules based on earliest start time ES (i,j)

and latest start time LS (i, j). The horizontal time difference between the two schedules indicates the possible float. FIG.15 is an illustration of the actual percentage completion versus time for a project in progress. The current status

shows the project is 40% complete and well ahead of original schedule, some activities were completed in less than their expected durations.

( ) max{ ( ) ; ( ) }E i E i D E i SSij ij

Figure 12 : Illustration of Activity Float – TF, FF, IF

Figure 13 : Illustration of a Time Scaled

Network Diagram

Time

ES(i,j)

LS(i,j)

Figure 14 : Example of Percentage Completion versus Time for Alternative Schedules

Time

Figure 15 : Illustration of Actual Percentage Completion versus Time for a project in progress

TIME ESTIMATE CPM was developed on real life construction projects hence, it considers single time estimate based on past experience and

historical record. A straight forward approach to estimating activity duration (Dij) may be based on the quantity of work (Aij), the number of crew

(Nij) and their productivity :

QUANTITY OF WORK DURATION = ________________________________________

PRODUCTIVITY x NO. OF CREW

Since PERT was developed on research projects statistical method based on probability was adopted. The pattern of distribution considered was beta distribution adopting three time estimates.

FIG.16 shows the probability of occurrence with Beta Distribution vis-à-vis Normal Distribution. Algorithm for probabilistic time estimate for activity (i, j) is,

Optimistic time estimate = (aij)Most likely time estimate = (mij)Pessimistic time estimate = (bij)Activity duration (i, j) based on Beta Distribution is,

1( , ) ( 4 )6

i j a m bij ij ij

.ij

ijij ij

A

P ND

1( , ) ( 4 )6

i j a m bij ij ij

Figure 16 : Beta and Normally Distributed Activity Durations

The mean duration and its variance for activity (i, j) can also be expressed as,

where, (i,j) and 2 (i, j) are the mean duration and its variance respectively.

The probability density function of a beta distribution for a random variable x is given by:

where K is a constant and can be expressed in terms of and .

2 21 ( )36

( , )ij ijb ai j

( ) ( ) .( )f x K x a b x ; , 1a x b

For a beta distribution in the interval a < x < b having a model value m, the mean is given by :

with 95% values of optimistic and pessimistic duration the formula for calculating the activity variance becomes

Several beta distributions for different sets of values of and are shown in FIG. 17.

( )2

a m b

295% 95%12( , )10 ij ijb ai j

Figurre 17 : Illustration of Several Beta Distributions

The normal distribution is characterized by two parameters, and representing the average duration and the standard deviation of the duration, respectively. Alternatively, the variance of the distribution 2 could be used to describe the variability of durations; the variance is the value of the standard deviation multiplied by itself. These two parameters can be estimated as :

where n different observations xk of the random variable x are available.

Using estimates of productivity, the standard deviation of activity duration can be calculated as :

where, 1/P is the estimated standard deviation of the reciprocal of productivity.

STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY – MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

The network technique suffers from three major problems :

Normally focuses on a single critical path, when many paths may become critical.

AVERAGE DURATION1

xn kxnk

2

2)

1

( STANDARD DEVIATION

1

x

n

xn kk

1/.ij Pij

ij

A

N

It is incorrect to assume that most activity durations relating to construction of water and infrastructure projects are independent random variables. In practice these are correlated with each other.

PERT depends on three time estimate as against single time estimate in CPM.

Monte Carlo simulation calculates sets of artificial, but realistic, durations and then applies them on deterministic scheduling.

The probability of meeting a project deadline can be expressed mathematically by the equation :

Also, probability of meeting a project deadline (P) is,

where, PD = Project deadline

D = Expected duration

D = Standard deviation of project duration

Z = Standard normal distribution.

Project duration results from various techniques and assumptions such as,

Critical Path Method; PERT Method; Monte Carlo Simulation; “What if” Simulation

Optimistic, Most Likely; Pessimistic Estimates.`

{ } Dr r

D

PDD PD P ZP

PDDP

D

Uniformly distributed random variables ui in the interval zero to one can be of the form:

Normally distributed random numbers can be calculated using two uniformly distributed realizations with equations :

and

where xk is the normal realization, x is the mean of x, x is the standard deviation of x, and u1 and u2 are the two uniformly distributed random variable realizations.

Given a realization xk of x, the conditional distribution of d is still normal, but it is a function of the value xk. In particular, the conditional mean (’d|x = xk) and standard deviation (’d|x=xk) of a normally distributed variable given a realization of the second variable is :

where dx is the correlation coefficient between d and x. Once xk is known, the conditional mean and standard deviation can be calculated.

5 fractional part of ( 1)u ui i

.sin with

2ln1

x s txKs ux

22

t u

| ( / ) ( )

{ | } 1

x x xx xd k dx d k dx x

d k d dx

1 1 11/2 1/2

2 22 2

1 1 1 1

n n nn x y x yi i i ii i i

xy

n n n nn x x n y yi i i ii i i i

The value of xy can range from one to minus one.

To simplify calculations for Monte Carlo simulation triangular distribution is advantageous :Assuming, a = lower limitb = upper limitm = most likely valueThe mean standard deviation of a triangular distribution are :

The cumulative probability function for the triangular distribution is :

where, F(x) is the probability that the random variable is less than or equal to the value of x.` The calculation of the corresponding value of x can be obtained from the equation since the cumulative

probability function varies from zero to one :

and32 2 2

18

a b m

a b m ab am mb

2( ) for ( ) ( )

( ) 2( )1 for

( ) ( )

x a a x mb a n a

F xb x m x b

b a b m

( ) ( ) if 1

(1 ) ( ) ( ) if 0

a u b a m a uk kx

k b u b a b m uk k

HEURISTIC TIME ESTIMATE for a Pipeline project : A water pipeline project of 11 sections may be considered. Defining a binary (0 or 1) decision variable for each pipe section and crew, xij, where xij=1 implies

that section i is assigned to crew j and xij= 0 implies that section i is not assigned to crew j.The time required to complete each section is ti. The overall time to complete the sections is denoted by Z.

The problem of minimizing overall completion time is expressed by :

subject to the constraints :

A modification permits a more conventional mathematical formulation :Minimize Z subject to the constraints :

11 11 11 maximum ; ; ...

1 2 31 1 1Z t x t x t xi i ii i ii i i

51 for section

1x iijj

11 for each crew

1Z t x ji iji

5=1 for each section

1x iijj

where Xij is 0 or 1.

PROJECT RISK AND PI MATRIX : The economic viability of a water and infrastructure project must be assessed with a reasonable degree of certainty applying the following

methods : Pay Back Period (PBP) Return our Investment (ROI) Net Present Value (NPV) Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR)

Most projects on water resources and infrastructure development are primarily public utility services and are taken up not solely on commercial considerations but from the consideration of overall benefit to the society.

For these projects the guiding considerations are social profitability considering upgradation of skill, employment generation, rural upliftment, raising standard of living, industrialisation, urbanisation, etc.

In assessing the project the following questions must be answered satisfactorily : Why take the risk on this project? What will be gained by implementing this project? What could be lost by taking up this project? What are the chances of success in this project? Is the potential reward from this project worth the risk?

Each risk can be placed on a risk analysis matrix called Probability Impact Matrix or PI MATRIX.

PROBABILITY RATING IMPACTZERONo risk hence, no impactLOW Minor impact on projectMEDIUM May cause problemHIGH Significant Impact. May jeopardise the project.

NETWORK FORMULATION, STABILIZATION AND UPDATING: The steps involved in network formulation and stabilization are recommended by the author as follows :

A detailed WBS has to be prepared for the water and infrastructure project to identify the possible activities and the work packages (WP) covering groups of activities.

A list of activities has to be drawn up categorising them into disciplines, agencies and work packages. Interrelationship amongst the activities has to be introduced and the logic network developed without timing. Time of each activity to be estimated independently taking into consideration the techniques already outlined. The network is to be analysed that is, forward pass, backward pass, float calculation, etc. Checking if the schedule meets the project target If the schedule is not within the target the network logic and the schedule has to be revised by applying

standard techniques. If the schedule is within the target checking if the network is a balanced one. If the network is not balanced it may be considered as not a stable one and revising the logic and schedule

would be necessary. If the network is within the target and balanced the initial report for follow-up may be issued.

FIG.18 shows by a flow chart the above steps involved in formulation and stabilisation of the network. The updating interval has to be decided carefully keeping in view the scope and complexity of the water and

infrastructure project and the degree of control desired.

FIG.19 shows a flow chart indicating the updating of the network and issue of updated progress report based on feed-back data from various departments.

The progress report to be issued to various levels of management should include all the relevant information in a categorized manner for effective monitoring, evaluation and control.

FIG.20 shows the composition of a progress report for a project on water resource and infrastructure development.

Fig.18 : Flow Chart for Network Formulation & Stabilization.

WBS

Fig.19 : Flow Chart for Updating Cycle

Fig.20 : Composition of a Progress Report

PROJECT SLIPPAGE CONTROL

In arresting slippage on water resources and infrastructure projects the main action points to be attended to are as follows : Delay Identification – identifying each delay in a pro-active manner and documenting each of them. Delay Quantification – quantifying each delay and assessing its influence on the overall project. Delay Analysis – identifying the problems causing each delay and braking down the delay caused by each

problem. Problem Analysis – analyzing the delay causing problems and ascertaining the possible corrective action. Corrective Action – Application of remedial measure and evaluating project response. Deciding and

applying revised action in case of unsatisfactory project response.

FIG.21 shows through a flow chart the major steps in delay management and outlines the overall project control system.

The syndrome of concurrent delay is common in real life projects on water and infrastructure. This means, delays due to various causes occur all at a time rather than one after another.

In case of a concurrent delay the author recommends that the dominant cause for project slippage be ascertained analysing the project network and corrective action applied accordingly.

Fig. 21 : Major steps in delay management.

DECIDE AND

DECIDE AND APPLY REVISED ACTION

Delay is normally caused by three parties as follows : O = Owner’s Delay C = Contractors’ Delay N = Neither party, (owner or contractor) or a third party.

There is close interaction among the three-parties causing concurrent delays. A Venn diagram may be drawn to indicate the possible critical delay and interactions among the three parties O, C, and N.

There can be seven mathematical combinations of the concurrent delay due to these three involved parties – Owner (O), Contractor (C), Third Party (N) :

(O), (C), (N), (O + C), (O+N), (C+N) and (O + C + N)

The Venn diagram may be used to represent the different sets of one-party, two-party and three-party concurrent critical delays.

PROCUREMENTPROCUREMENT

• Procurement is the process of contracting and managing contracts

• Procurement process broadly consists of :• Expression of interest by tenderers• Pre-qualification of bidders• Short listing of bidders• Submission of tenders and bid evaluation• Contract award or placement of order

• The construction sector in India is the second largest employer next only to agriculture.

• Construction has been recently recognized as an industry but there is no construction act as against the age old Factory Act.

• A nation wide procurement policy is very much missing in India.

• The country needs a huge capacity build-up in water resources and all sectors of infrastructure to serve its mega population.

• The forms of contract accepted internationally and in major national projects in India are :• FIDIC – The International Federation of Consulting Engineers and• ICE – Institution of Civil Engineers (UK)

• Most projects in India in the water and infrastructure sector suffer from the myth of L1, i.e., accepting the lowest bid based only on quoted price.

• Based on the original estimated contract prices the contracts may be categorized under: Lump sum; Unit price; Cost plus fixed % ; Cost plus fixed fee; Cost plus variable % ; Target estimate and Guaranteed maximum cost.

• To illustrate the relative cost of construction contracts the following notations may be adopted :

E = Contractor’s original estimate at the time of contract award

M = Amount of mark-up by the contractor in the contract

B = Estimated construction price at signing the contract

A = Contractor’s actual cost for the original scope of work

U = Underestimate of cost in the original estimate

• At the time of contract award, the contract price would be :

B = E + M

• The underestimation of the cost of work in the original contract is

U = A – E

• At project completion, the contractor’s actual cost for the original scope of work is :

A = E + U

• Contract negotiation prior to order placement is an important aspect. The negotiation involves multiple issues which must be sorted out and agreed upon before commencement of construction.

• The issues to be decided in a Pipeline Construction project are defined as :

• Duration – must specify the required completion time• Penalty for Late Completion on daily or weekly basis• Bonus for Early Completion on daily or weekly basis• Report Format for Contractors’ Progress Report• Frequency of Progress Report – daily, weekly, fortnightly or monthly• Conform to Prevailing Legislation Regarding Pipelines• Contract Type – Unit price, cost plus, etc.• Submission of schedules and methodology• Contractor’s Site Representative and Organization.• Construction Facilities – water, power, labour housing, stores, safety, health and

environment, security.• Site Mobilisation – material, equipment, manpower• Penalty for Late Start

QUALITY ASSURANCE AND QUALITY QUALITY ASSURANCE AND QUALITY CONTROL (QA/AC)CONTROL (QA/AC)

• Quality does not have a clear definition it may mean statistical quality control (SQC), total quantity control (TQC) or even ZERO DEFECT construction aimed at continuous improvement.

• QA and QC are synonymous in nature. For water and infrastructure projects QA signifies activities implemented within the quality system. QC includes all activities to fulfil the requirement of quality.

• In the recent years the International Standards Organization (ISO) have issued ISO 9000 series of standards which are accepted internationally. The Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) have issued corresponding Indian Standards under series IS 14000 which are applicable in India.

• QA/QC applies various statistical methods. Considering a large number of inspection and tests on samples the standard deviation is determined as follows :

Total number of tests (n) with results x1, x2, x3, … , xn (i = n)

Average value

Standard Deviation

...1 2 3x x x xnx n

2( )1( )

( 1)

i nx xiiSn

1

i nxii

n

where, x = average value

n = number of tests

S = Standard Deviation• Statistical Quality Control (SQC) by sampling can be used to determine the minimum

acceptable quality level (AQL).• A lot of finite number N may be considered, in which m items are defective and the

remaining (N – m) items are non-defective . If a random sample of n items is taken from this lot, then we can determine the probability of having different numbers of defective items in the sample.

• The number of different samples of size n that can be selected from a finite number N is termed a mathematical combination and is computed as :

where, a factorial, n~ is n* (n – 1) * (n –2) … (1) and zero factorial (0!) is one by convention. The number of possible samples with x defectives is the combination associated with obtaining x defectives from m possible defective items and (n-x) good items from (N-m) good items :

Given these possible numbers of samples, the probability of having exactly x defective

items in the sample is given by the ratio as the hypergeometric series :

( )!! !( )! ( )!( )!

m N m N mmx x m x n x N m n xn x

( 1) ... ( 1) ! =! !( )!

N N N N n Nn n N nn

With this function, we can calculate the probability of obtaining different numbers of

defectives in a sample of a given size can be calculated.• It is assumed that the actual fraction of defectives in the lot is p and the actual fraction

of non-defectives is q, then p plus q is one, resulting in m = Np, and (N-m) = Nq. Then, a function g (p) representing the probability of having r or less defective items in a sample of size n is obtained by :

• If the number of items in the lot, N, is large in comparison with the sample size n, then the function g(p) can be approximated by the binomial distribution :

( )

m N mx n x

P X xNn

( ) ( )

0 0

N Np qr r x n xg p P X x

Nx xn

( )0

x n xnp q

x

rg p

x

( ) 11

nx n x

np q

xg p

x r

• The function g(p) indicates the probability of accepting a lot, given the sample size n and the number of allowable defective items in the sample r.

• In the application of sampling by variables plans, the measured characteristic is virtually always assumed to be normally distributed as illustrated in FIG.22: Variable Probability Distributions and Acceptance Regions.

Figure 22 : Variable Probability Distributions and Acceptance Regions

The fraction of defective items in a sample or the chance that the average has different values is estimated from two statistics obtained from the sample: the sample mean and standard deviation. If n be the number of items in the sample and xi, i = 1,2,3,...,n, be the measured values of the variable characteristic x, then an estimate of the overall mean is the sample mean :

An estimate of the standard deviation s, can be expressed mathematically as :

Based on these two estimated parameters and the desired limits, the various fractions of interest can be calculated. The probability that the average value of a population is greater than a particular lower limit is calculated from the

following mathematical expression :

which is t-distributed with n-1 degrees of freedom. If the standard deviation is known in advance, then this known value is substituted for the estimate s and the resulting test statistic would be normally distributed. The t distribution is similar in appearance to a standard normal distribution, although the spread or variability in the function decreases as the degrees of freedom parameter increases. As the number of degrees of freedom becomes very large, the t-distribution coincides with the normal distribution.

With an upper limit, the calculations are similar, and the probability that the average value is less than a particular upper limit can be calculated from the following:

With both upper and lower limits, the sum of the probabilities of being above the upper limit or below the lower limit can be calculated.

The calculations to estimate the fraction of items above an upper limit or below a lower limit are very similar to those for the average.

and,

where tAL is the test statistic for all items with a lower limit and tAU is the test statistic for all items with a upper limit.

FIG.23 shows the Probability Density through testing for defective component strengths.

Figure 23 : Testing for Defective Component Strengths

ENVIRONMENT, HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENT, HEALTH AND SAFETYSAFETY

Ideally, projects on water resources and infrastructure should be planned and implemented taking due care of the environment and health, and free of accidents.

Because of the large number of accidents in construction even in developed countries like the UK and USA, construction is considered the most hazardous industry.

The situation is much worse in developing countries like India. Codes on Safety in Construction have been introduced by the Bureau of Indian

Standards (BIS) and safety manuals have been published in most public and private undertakings.

In India, a large part of the construction activities in water and infrastructure are caried out by the unorganized sector. The contractor’s technical capability and past record on environment, health and safety (EHS) is not a prime consideration for placement of order which is decided primarily by the quoted price. The contractor’s normal explanation is - cost of EHS is not covered in the rates quoted.

EHS should be the composite responsibility of all the agencies involved : the planner, the designer, the consultants, the owner, the contractor and above all the workmen.

EHS is everybody’s business and a “no compromise”attitude should be adopted to achieve success.

Chapter 10 : HUMAN ASPECTS AND Chapter 10 : HUMAN ASPECTS AND PUBLIC AWARENESSPUBLIC AWARENESS

The common people are the ultimate beneficiary for all water and infrastructure projects. They must be taken into full confidence and the projects executed in full transparency.

Projects on water and infrastructure will involve acquisition of large land area. In a densely populated country like India this involves displacing people from their age old homes, occupying many farm land, destroying forests, and re-locating wild animals.

Apart from immediate loss of income for the affected people the project creates associated environmental problems.

The environment lobby is quite strong in India. Being a functioning democracy with a strong Press and Media, the political and legal involvement is natural.

Projects like large dams, canals , inter-linking of rivers, inter-state highways are cross country and at times involve several states and neighbouring countries.

The problem is complex in India because of its high population density, many states and adjoining countries .

The aim should be to create awareness amongst the people, observe complete transparency and secure full support and cooperation of the ultimate beneficiary, the people.

The people must be convinced that the final benefit will accrue to them and their descendents.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATIONCOMMUNICATION

In controlling slippage of water resources and infrastructure projects, the essence is effective communication.

Sharing information has a positive effect on project performance on a sustainable basis. With rapid advancement of IT and telecom, project communication is becoming faster and

more accurate. Face to face meeting is the best but lot of useful work on the project is lost due to travelling

to and fro to attend meetings. Bureaucracy impedes communication. Informal communication frequently gives better result. Water and infrastructure projects being spread over large areas digital communication

should be used to the best advantage to the project. Digital mobile phones with ability to connect to web-based data is very useful for project

communication. Due to improved communication the physical distance between the project office and the

work site seems to be disappearing. High-tech applications like GIS, GPS, virtual reality, tele-conferencing, video-conferencing are

going to have increased application in arresting project slippage. Digital techniques with more of sophistication and miniaturisation are flooding the market. Unfortunately in countries like India many of these state-of-the-art techniques are not yet

affordable to the average contractor involved in execution of water and infrastructure project ..

CASE STUDIESCASE STUDIES

The innovative methodology suggested for arresting slippage in water resources and infrastructure projects is a generic model which is applicable on most complex multi-disciplinary projects. The research shows that the model should be within the broad framework of the time tested network analysis technique. Attempts are made to attain perfection in the basic inputs for initial project planning and implementation.

The author’s substantial work in India and abroad attempting to find workable solutions to this problem and the findings of this research is a further detailing and updating of the experience gained by the author on real life projects, as described.

1. Water, Infrastructure and Services for SIDOR Steel Plant, Venezuela (1975-1980) :

Siderurgica del Orinoco C.A. (SIDOR) was Venezuela’s only integrated steelworks located at Matanzas.

PLAN IV expansion of this plant was taken up with an investment of US $5 Billion involving large scale water resources and infrastructure development.

The author worked as the head of planning and control on SIDOR’s PLAN IV project representing Dastur Engineering International GmbH, Dusseldorf, Consulting Engineers as the Resident Engineer.

FIG.24, shows a panoramic view of the SIDOR plant with water and infrastructure facilities.

The plant was located at the confluence of the rivers Orinoco and Caroni at Matanzas close to the city of Puerto Ordaz. The scheme involved :

Setting-up of a new 1.0 km long river port on river Orinoco. Water supply from Guri Dam on river Caroni about 90 Km from the plant site

through large dia steel pipelines. Water storage, treatment, pumping, distribution and re-circulation network at plant

site. Laying 74 Km of roads, 150 km rail track, construction workers’ prefabricated

housing camp for 14,000 peak workforce. Various services and infrastructure facilities.

Planning methodology adopted was activity network (PDM) with data processing through IBM 370 mainframe computer and project control through IBM-PROJACS (Project Analysis and Control System) package. Close follow-up and updating at regular intervals. Monitoring through meetings like problem analysis, planning and control, shipping and delivery and start-up meetings. It was an international project with cultural and language barriers.

WBS were prepared in great details and formed the basis for detailed network planning. Maximum focus was given on on total involvement of all, excellent top management

support, good coordination and communication. These, together with fast decision and prompt action were the secrets of success in this project.

The project construction was completed in about four years as planned within the approved budget without any significant project slippage.

2. Water, Power and Outdoor facilities for Misurata Steel Complex (MSC), Libya (1983-1988) :

Libya’s first integrated steel works was established in Misurata on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea. Desalinated sea water was used for the construction of the plant and subsequent operation.

A captive harbour of capacity 2 million tons p.a., on the Mediterranean was set up for import of raw materials and export of selected finished products.

Demand for construction water was met by installing a 500 cu.m./day package desalination plant initially and a further 2x2,250 cum/day capacity desalination plants subsequently.

A large central water station was provided for circulating the cooling water, make-up water and emergency water to the plant.

For industrial cooling sea water was used on once through basis. Extensive yard facilities – underground, overhead and on the surface were provided:

Yard Piping…………………………………………………… 350 km

Yard Cabling………………………………………………….. 400 km

Roads and Parking Lots……………………………………. 2,48,000 sq.m.

Storm Water and Faecal Sewerage System…………….. 34 km It was an international project with the deployment of 28 multi-national companies

working together and a peak construction workforce of 12,000.

Figure 24 : SIDOR Steel Plant,Venezuela –panoramic view showing water and infrastucture facilities

Figure 25 : MUSURATA Steel Complex, Libya –panoramic view showing overhead yard piping and services

The author as Resident Director of Dastur Engineering International GmbH, Dusseldorf., the main consultant on the project was responsible for overseeing the total construction activities.

FIG.25 shows a panoramic view of MSC with overhead yard piping and services. FIG.26 gives a view of underground water pipelines in MSC. Project monitoring and control was executed successfully through activity networks in

three categories – Master Network encompassing the entire project; Overall Network covering each zone of the plant and sectional network to cover activities in detail for execution at site prepared based on detailed WBS of all the units.

Computerised data processing was done through packages like IBM PROJACS, K&H, ARTEMIS, Netronics etc.

The Master Network was processed with the Consulting Engineer’s in-house package PROMAN (Project Management).

Monitoring and follow-up were in great details and at frequent intervals. Special formats were developed and adopted for effective monitoring and control of the

water, power and outdoor facilities. Inspite of some interruptions in the project due to policy change of the project

authorities commissioning of water and infrastructure facilities were done in good time in conformity with the production requirements.

3. Infrastructure, Water and Services for Salem Steel Plant, Tamil Nadu (SSP) – Phase II Expansion (1989-1991)

To safeguard against possible slippages an implementation strategy was drawn up advancing the commissioning date by about six months.

This prestigious project was completed well ahead of schedule. The morale boosting achievement was a lesson for implementation of future projects.

Figure 26 : MISURATA Steel Complex, Libya – photographic view showing under-ground water pipelines.

Figure 27 : SALEM Steel Plant –Phase II Expansion, construction of heavy foundations for buildings and services.

Slippages were arrested through timely corrective action and controlling consequential delays.

Computerised CPM monitoring and evaluation techniques were adopted using M.N. Dastur & Co. Consulting Engineers’ in-house package PROMAN (Project Management).

Overall unit level networks were prepared and updated at regular intervals. The main factors contributing to this achievement were

Excellent performance by all agencies concerned Meticulous planning and timely action in advance Vigorous project monitoring and follow-up Timely management intervention and trouble shooting Excellent cooperation and team effort with a common end objective of completing

the project in time. The author as Technical Director (Construction) of M.N. Dastur & Co. was responsible

for coordination and monitoring of the entire construction. FIG.27 shows a photograph of SSP-Phase II Expansion construction of heavy

foundations for buildings and services.

4. Water Supply Project for Vikram Ispat Sponge Iron Plant, Raygad, Maharashtra (1991-1992)

The project involved supplying water from River Kundalika to the plant by 500 mm dia, 40 km long pipeline.

The pipes were of prestressed concrete in most sections and of MS in mostly over ground sections.

Project scope also included sinking an intake well on the river bank, a pump house and an electrical sub-station.

Planning and control with rigorous follow-up done through activity networking technique and detailed WBS forming the basis of initial planning.

Excellent cooperation and coordination and total involvement of all agencies concerned were vital for success in this project.

Underground sections had extensive rock cutting and use of explosives was prohibited due to proximity of existing villages and towns.

As Technical Director (Construction) of M.N. Dastur & Co., Consulting Engineers the author was responsible for close coordination and monitoring of construction.

The project was completed well within schedule enabling timely commissioning of the plant.

Some photographs of the Vikram Ispat Plant water pipeline project are shown in FIG.28 and 29.

5. Water, Utilities and Services for Whirlpool Refrigerator Plant, Pune (1997-1998)

Water and power for this project were drawn from Maharashtra Industrial Development Corporation (MIDC) and Maharashtra State Electricity Board (MSEB) respectively :

The infrastructure involved : Treated water storage capacity……………………………………… 570 cu.m. Raw water storage capacity including fire water………………… 3,180 cu.m. Storm Water Drainage…………………………………………………. 4,220 r.m. Roads and Pavements…………………………………………………. 20,700 sq.m.

Initial planning done through detailed WBS. Close monitoring and follow-up done through computerised activity networks using MS

Project Package.

Figure 28 : VIKRAM ISPAT, Sponge-Iron Plant, Raygad, Maharashtra – rock excava-tion for underground piepline.

Figure 29 : VIKRAM ISPAT, Sponge-Iron Plant, Raygad, Maharashtra – joint of M.S. and pre-stressed concrete water pipes.

Actual accomplishment constantly compared with the plan and prompt corrective actions decided and effectively applied.

Each delay analysed to locate root cause and ascertain remedial measures. Effective construction monitoring done through progress meetings, review meetings,

quality control, construction safety, strict measures against pollution and health hazards.

The key to project success was a totally dedicated team, total involvement and commitment of all concerned, excellent top management support, focus on the end objective, fast decision and its application, good coordination and communication.

Water and all other services were made available in time enabling trial production to start in about one year of ground breaking.

Project completed on schedule within the approved budget. As Construction Manager of Gherzi Eastern Ltd. Management Consultant on the project

implementation the author was in charge of overall project coordination and control. Some photographs of water and other services are shown in FIG.30 and 31.

6. Orissa Water Resource Consolidation Project [OWRCP] (1999-2003) OWRCP was a World Bank funded project to establish multi-sectoral water planning,

enhancing the efficiency of public expenditures and providing more efficient and effective irrigation services.

It was a model project for the Department of Water Resources, Orissa (DOWR) which could be followed in the other Indian states.

The primary objectives of DOWR included : To improve planning, management and development of Orissa’s water resources To improve agricultural productivity To enhance DOWR’s institutional capability.

Figure 30 : WHIRLPOOL Refrigerator Plant, Pune –civil work for pump-house and cooling tower.

Figure 31 : WHIRLPOOL Refrigerator Plant, Pune –pump-house with overhead and underground pipelines.

The work was carried out by DOWR through technical assistance from a group of national and international consultants.

The author was a national consultant working for STUP Consultants Ltd. on Monitoring and Evaluation of the project components.

A computer based monitoring and evaluation system for tracking and controlling the project sections spread all over the state was developed and applied.

A customised software MEMIS (Monitoring and Evaluation Management Information System) was developed and used effectively by DOWR on constituent projects like: Naraj Barrage Project Sakhigopal Branch Canal System Baghua Stage II Earth Dam Project

The projects were monitored through detailed networks developed based on WBS. The networks were analysed and updated using MS Project package.

Regular monthly progress reports showing the actual accomplishment vs the plan, identifying problems and remedial action points were issued and reviewed through frequent meetings at various levels.

The following FIGS illustrate the monitoring and reporting system at DOWR. FIG.32 DOWR – Activity network for a typical canal system FIG.33 DOWR – Pie chart showing base cost allocation FIG.34 DOWR – Physical progress of quantity – estimated vs executed FIG.35 DOWR – S-Curve showing cumulative progress vs plan

Figure 32 : Orissa Water Resource Consolidation Project – activity network for a typical canal system.

25%

3%

9%

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SIFT WATER PLANNING & EAP INSTITUTIONAL SUPPORT

WRRF & AIP R&R & IPDP SCHEME COMPLETION

Figure 33 : OWRCP - Pie Chart Showing Base Cost Allocation.

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Earth Work Concrete & Masonry Rocktoe & Rip Rap

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REVISED ESTIMATE EXECUTED TO DATE

Figure 34 : OWRCP Physical Progress – Estimated vs Executed Quantity

Figure 35 : OWRCP S-Curve showing cumulative Progress Vs Plan (Cost Based)

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SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONSUMMARY AND CONCLUSION

SUMMARY The thesis attempts to identify the main causes of slippage in water resources and

infrastructure projects and suggest possible corrective actions. The applied action were found to be project specific and its application will depend on

the judgement of the project authority and the executing agency keeping in view the prevailing situation.

The proposed model includes identifying various steps in planning and implementation, locating engineering and managerial reasons causing project slippage, application of state-of-the-art techniques on construction and management, putting into effect streamlined methodologies, to evaluate the human aspects of the project and finally illustrating the success of the methodology with a number of case studies.

The research shows that slippage in water and infrastructure projects can be arrested to a large extent with substantial modification of the techniques already in use.

Effective control comes from the management process namely, the individuals, the project team and the implementation of effective control.

It has been observed that the recent advancements in IT and communication may be largely applied on the water resource and infrastructure projects to derive best result aiming at arresting project slippage.

CONCLUSION Water resources development projects are considered under major groups like surface

water, ground water, sewage & effluent treatment and environment protection projects. Other infrastructure projects are considered under buildings and housing, highways,

railways and bridges; power generation and distribution; education, health and hospitality; shopping and entertainment and, IT and communication.

Groundwater projects should be based on safe yield and water quality safeguarding against lowering of ground water table and possible land subsidence. Whereas, for the surface water projects the planning should be based on locating the source, its reliability and sustainability and availability of required land. For a sewage treatment plant the guiding considerations are the population to be served, the quality of raw sewage, the maximum BOD permitted for the treated sewage, selection of the process and the plant location.

For initial planning, the work needs to be broken down in sufficient details by work breakdown structure (WBS).

Legal and institutional issues like land acquisition, site access, statutory clearance and environmental impact analysis should be complied with

Causes of project delay leading to slippage are repetitive for most projects but somewhat special in water resources and infrastructure projects. Many of the causes for delay are interwoven, inter-dependent and frequently multiple causes occur simultaneously.

The broad reasons causing project slippage may be in engineering and/or in management and may be internal and/or external. The internal factors represent the causes which are within the control of the project authorities and external factors somewhat beyond their control. Impact of external factors on the project may be minimized by adjustment in the project plan and schedule.

Each delay is caused by one or more problems which need to be identified in advance and pro-active action taken to eliminate or ease out the problem area.

The suggested approach is identifying the problem, analysing the causes, quantifying the slippages, evaluating the overall impact, taking appropriate remedial measures and evaluating project response to the applied action.

The system of planning and control recommended is activity networks (PERT/CPM) developed through detailed work breakdown structure (WBS).

In the suggested innovative methodology the critical path method has been adopted where floats are to be calculated. Time estimate has to be carried out utilising deterministic and probabilistic approaches based on beta distribution. Monte Carlo simulation has been used for meeting project deadline. The probability rating with impact on project is done by means of PI Matrix.

In case of unsatisfactory project response to the corrective action it is suggested to revise the strategy and apply revised corrective action. The cycle should continue till the project slippage gets under control.

Shortening of time for data processing, assembly and updating and, good communication is vital and can be achieved by optimum utilisation of state-of-the-art IT and digital communication.

It is proposed to adopt project log book for recording day-to-day events and a system of problem analysis and delay analysis for recording, following-up and controlling project slippage.

It is proposed that orders should be placed on the most competent pre-qualified bidder, competitive in price rather than the lowest bidder as at present in India.

Aspects of quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) should be adopted in conformity with international standards. Statistical quality control should be applied.

Execution of the project with due care of the environment and health and free of accidents should be a clear objective without any compromise.

The project should be taken up in full transparency with due regard to the human aspects and public awareness. Planning and implementation have to be done with a holistic approach keeping in mind the ultimate beneficiary, the general public. Utmost care should be taken to cause least inconvenience to the project affected people.

The proposed innovative methodology, for arresting project slippage in water resources development and infrastructure projects has been tested on six real life projects in India and overseas with which the author has been closely involved in responsible charge. The projects were completed within the original time schedule and in some cases marginally ahead of schedule.

The author feels that with all head and heart put together and working with a common objective arresting slippage in water resources development and infrastructure projects is achievable and not just a distant dream.