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SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2005 ForeignPolicy.com
HERE TODAY, GONE TOMORROW: 16 IDEAS ON THEIR WAY OUTG L O B A L P O L I T I C S , E C O N O M I C S , A N D I D E A S
®
years
sp
ecial edition
19 7 0 -2 0 0 5
3535A Diamond’s JourneyCaptured in Photos
The 3rd Annual Development Index
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Dealogic
35 Years Young
Each year, thousands of new magazines are launched. Very few survive. Therefore,when a magazine reaches its 35th anniversary, three sentiments come to mind:
surprise, pride, and gratitude. We know, because that is what we feel at FP as we offeryou this edition—our 150th—marking three and a half decades in print.
Success is never guaranteed in this business. So, when editors are being honest,success is always met with a measure of surprise. Since its inception, FP has existedin a competitive environment. Still, FP has managed togrow in circulation and attract new readers from twogroups of people: those professionally interested in thebusiness of international affairs, and casual readers,who are often surprised to find themselves subscribingto a magazine with our name.
That makes us proud. We began with a simple gamblethat if you offered provocative ideas, original thinking,and relevant analysis, with a format and feel that is alwaysaccessible and never dull, readers will follow. Our expe-rience reaffirms our belief that there is a large and grow-ing group of readers who cares about what world-classexperts have to say about the central challenges of ourtime, as long as these experts (and their editors) keepthe readers’ interests front and center. Consideringthe many languages in which FP is now regularlypublished—Arabic, Bulgarian, French, Korean, Spanish, Turkish, andcounting—this idea has appeal almost everywhere.
The only factor more important in explaining our longevity—beyond the loyalty
Peace. We are very fortunate to call the Carnegie Endowment home. Carnegie’schairman, James C. Gaither, the Board of Trustees, and President Jessica T. Mathewshave afforded us the funding, editorial independence, and intellectual inspiration thatform our bedrock. For that, we are truly grateful.
In recognition of our anniversary, we asked 16 leading thinkers to cast their vision for-ward and tell us what lies ahead 35 years from now. What ideas, values, or institutionsthat we take for granted may no longer be with us in 2040? Their answers will surpriseyou. In Prime Numbers, FP’s editors offer an offbeat timeline of some of the persons, places,and things that mattered most during the last three and a half decades. And finally, wemark the occasion with the debut of a new department, Wide Angle, which will featurephoto essays from the world’s top photographers. In this issue, Kadir van Lohuizenoffers powerful images of a diamond’s path from the mines of Africa to the showroomsof Paris. The journey reveals some of globalization’s greatest fault lines—inequality, childlabor, and outsourcing—and the people who too often fall through the cracks.
In short, this anniversary issue is a good example of all the things you have cometo expect from FP. We hope you will agree.
As always, we welcome your comments and feedback at www.ForeignPolicy.com.
The Editors
September | October 2005 1
of readers—is the confidence and support of the Carnegie Endowment for International
2 Foreign Policy
C O N T E N T SS e p t e m b e r | O c t o b e r 2 0 0 5
Ripped from the headlines: Fiction may be Nepal’s bestchance at the truth.
COVER: MICHAEL CONROY/AP WIDEWORLD
96
Why developing countriesmust realize that free trade isa two-way street.
04 LETTERS A failed index? A heated debate Loving AmericaArgentina’s character flaws.
22 IN BOX India’s economic caste-offs A second front in Africa Howtiny developments could end poverty China’s uphill climb Kofi’sright-hand man Plus, the FP Archive looks back at economic panics.
THINK AGAIN
26 Human Trafficking Judging by news headlines, human traffickingis a recent phenomenon. In fact, the coerced movement of people acrossborders is as old as the laws of supply and demand. What is new is thevolume of the traffic—and the realization that we have done little to stemthe tide. By David A. Feingold
PRIME NUMBERS
34 35 Years Later... In an anniversary special, FP offers its picks forwhat mattered most—and least—during the last three and a half decades.
ESSAYS
38 Here Today, Gone Tomorrow The world is a very different placethan when FP arrived on the scene 35 years ago. So we asked 16 leadingthinkers to cast their vision forward and tell us what lies ahead 35 years hence.What ideas, values, or institutions that we take for granted may no longerbe with us in 2040? What are the “endangered species” in our midst?
40 The Sanctity of Life 48 The Public Domain
41 Political Parties 49 Doctors’ Offices
42 The Euro 50 The King of England
43 Japanese Passivity 51 The War on Drugs
44 Monogamy 52 Laissez-Faire Procreation
45 Religious Hierarchy 53 Polio
46 The Chinese Communist Party 54 Sovereignty
47 Auto Emissions 55 Anonymity
58 The Utopian Nightmare This year, economists, politicians, androck stars have pleaded for debt relief and aid for the world’s poorest coun-tries. It certainly sounds like the right thing to do. But utopian plans foralleviating poverty give false hope to the millions who could use medi-cine and clean water instead. By William Easterly
GLOBALIZATION AT WORK
66 The Center of the World When Michael Jordan retired from bas-ketball, the NBA’s ratings began to fall. To bounce back, the leagueexpanded overseas and lured foreign talent to the game. And no one is asbig an ambassador as Yao Ming. The NBA sees its salvation in the 7-foot,6-inch Chinese sensation—and in 1.3 billion hoops fans. By Brook Larmer
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THE FP INDEX
76 Ranking the Rich The third annual CGD/FP Commitment toDevelopment Index ranks 21 rich nations on how they help or hinder thepoor. The rich hand out foreign aid, but they also put up barriers to trade.They send soldiers to keep the peace, but then sell arms to Third World thugs.Are the rich doing more harm than good?
WIDE ANGLE
84 A Trail of Diamonds FP’s inaugural photo essay charts a diamond’spath from the mines of Africa to the showrooms of Paris. The journeyreveals some of globalization’s greatest fault lines—and the people whofall through the cracks. Photographs by Kadir van Lohuizen
ARGUMENTS
92 In Green Company President Bush says the Kyoto Protocol wouldcost the United States too much. Too bad corporate America is alreadyplaying by its rules. By Stuart Eizenstat and Rubén Kraiem
94 The Protection Racket Development activists finally realize that freetrade is not evil. When do they plan to tell the poor? By Arvind Panagariya
REVIEWS
96 IN OTHER WORDS Nepal’s terror alert By Kunda Dixit ■ Putincan’t lose By Christian Caryl ■ Plus, what they’re reading in Madrid.
108 NET EFFECT Spam’s toll on the poor ■ When good iPods go bad ■
Iraq (almost) gets a home on the Web ■ The U.S. Army closes ranks ■ Plus,the world’s most-read blogger reveals his favorite sites.
MISSING LINKS
112 Dangerously Unique Why our definition of normalcy is costlyfor everyone else. By Moisés Naím
Globetrotter: How Yao Mingis bringing the NBA’s
hoop dreams to China.
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Don’t know what you’ve got: Will we miss the sanctity
of life when it’s gone?
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September | October 2005 3
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4 Foreign Policy
[ L E T T E R S ]
o z z i e
NATIONAL MAGAZINEAWARD WINNER 2003
GENERAL EXCELLENCE
A Failed Index?In the apparent interest of arrivingat objective, numerical standardsfor state breakdown, the archi-tects of the “Failed States Index”(July/August 2005) left commonsense by the wayside. That is theonly explanation for their rankingof Colombia as a state in “Criti-cal” danger of failing.
One flagrant example of theindex’s flawed methodology is thefact that Colombia, a middle-incomecountry with a long constitutionaltradition and a democraticallyelected government enjoying pop-ularity ratings of more than 70percent, receives the same scoreas a desperately impoverishedAfrican country whose govern-ment is in exile.
Although it has endured periodsof violence and conflict, Colombiais one of the most institutionallystable nations in the Americas. Ithas had continuous, constitutional,and democratic transfers ofpower—with only one exception,in 1953–58—for more than 100years, a record unrivalled in LatinAmerica. Excluding a recession in1999, the economy has experi-enced positive growth every yearsince 1934, another regional, andpossibly global, benchmark.Moreover, the size and vibrancy ofColombia’s economy belie anycomparison with other nations inthe “Critical” category, andindeed with the vast majority ofthose classified as “In danger” or“Borderline.”
Notwithstanding the threat fromillegal, armed actors, Colombia is apluralistic democracy characterizedby a politically active civil societyand a free press. Parties from acrossthe political spectrum, and repre-sentatives of the country’s ethnicminorities, occupy positions ofinfluence in all three branches of
government at the local andnational levels.
Colombia is threatened by ter-rorists and drug traffickers. Butthese are battles that Colombia iswinning. Since December 2000,kidnapping has dropped by 74percent, homicides by 32 percent(to their lowest per capita level in18 years), and terrorist acts by 62percent. Colombia has reducedcoca cultivation by 33 percent andpoppy cultivation by 65 percentsince 2001. More than 54,000peasant families have been givensupport to grow legal crops.
Colombia is a nation emerg-ing from a difficult period of civilconflict with strong resolve andunity. Listing the Colombian condition as “Critical” is outdat-ed and mistaken.
—Luis Alberto MorenoColombian Ambassador to the United States
Washington, D.C.
Having recently begun to serve asthe U.N. secretary-general’ s specialrepresentative in the Ivory Coast,I was happy to see my copy ofForeign Policy arrive at mynew address in Abidjan. However,I was disappointed by the “FailedStates Index.”
Trying to judge the characterof nations is one of the most dif-ficult, and delicate, intellectualand political exercises. Rankingstates should be undertaken withparticular care and finesse. Thisindex was not.
My problem with the indexwas not its condescending nature,but that the Ivory Coast wasranked as the country most “at-risk” and the “most vulnerable todisintegration.” Another dubiousdistinction is Sierra Leone’s over-all ranking as sixth. Thanks to arobust U.N.-backed intervention,Sierra Leone is becoming a suc-cess story and a poster child for
[ But we do have a taste for meaty issues. ]
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To be a part of that debate, visit our website and explore in detail theissues that are driving global change. Read articles and briefs, backed upby probing analysis and presented in clear, jargon-free writing, before theymake news. Tune in to online events, and receive regular policy updatesvia our free e-news subscription service.
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6 Foreign Policy
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[ Letters ]
legitimate multilateral intervention.The country is now peaceful enoughthat the United Nations has beenable to reduce its peacekeeping forcethere from 12,000 to 3,000, and itplans to phase out the whole force byDecember of this year. Sierra Leoneis not a top contender for the most“at-risk” list.
Most disturbing, though, wasthe sentence passed on the IvoryCoast. It is indeed a country withmany grave problems. In my role,I see all too often the consequencesof hideous human rights abusesreminiscent of the darkest days inthe Balkans. But to relegate theIvory Coast to the top of the list offailed states is to ignore the ongo-ing efforts by both Ivoirians andthe international community toaddress the root causes of the con-flict and to create a process for end-ing it. Intervention by the UnitedNations and the African Union hasallowed significant progress towardpeace and reconciliation. SouthAfrican President Thabo Mbekideserves special praise for his role asa mediator.
Presidential elections are sched-uled for Oct. 30, 2005. If all goeswell, peace will no longer be a distantdream, and the Ivory Coast canreturn to its role as an economicpowerhouse for West Africa.
Placing the Ivory Coast at thetop of the index does not reflectreality. It erodes the desperatelyneeded confidence of the people ofthe Ivory Coast, as well as inter-national solidarity. In short, it doesnot serve the cause of peace.
—Pierre SchoriAbidjan, Ivory Coast
The Failed States Index’s claimthat Peru is in danger of collapseis anachronistic and inaccurate.Peru is in no danger. The terroristgroups that threatened our coun-try in the 1980s and early 1990s
have been dismantled. The demo-cratic government of PresidentAlejandro Toledo exerts legitimateauthority throughout the country,respects the rule of law, holds amonopoly on the lawful use offorce, provides civilian controlover the military, and promotesfree trade and foreign investment.There is also no intervention fromany foreign country.
Peru is an emerging nationwith an impressive economicrecord. According to the Interna-tional Monetary Fund and theWorld Bank, Peru has achieved 46consecutive months of growth, at4.5 percent or more, a rate higherthan the regional average. Further-more, Peru has had an annual infla-tion rate of 1.86 percent between2000 and 2004, high internation-al foreign reserves, and record lev-els of export growth; exports havedoubled since 2001. Financialmarkets have taken note, and riskpremiums on Peruvian bondsreached historically low levels inlate 2004.
Readers seeking accurateinformation on the state of Perushould look to other indexes, suchas the United Nations Develop-ment Programme’s, which ranksPeru as the 85th most developedcountry in the world, far aboveother countries.
—Eduardo Ferrero Peruvian Ambassador to the United States
Washington, D.C.
Both the government of theDominican Republic and the over-whelming majority of Dominicanshave reacted with shock and dis-belief to the news that FOREIGN
POLICY and the Fund for Peaceranked the Dominican Republicas 19th out of 60 countries in their“Failed States Index.”
This ranking is outrageous. Isit credible that the Dominican
[ Letters ]
Republic has a lower grading onhuman rights than Sudan, Somalia,Sierra Leone, Uganda, and Haiti?Or that in the category of refugeesand displaced persons, Rwandaand the Ivory Coast receive a bet-ter grade than our country? Orthat in “public services,” i tappears as the fourth worst coun-try on the list?
In more than three decades, mycountry has not experienced a coup,a civil war, a guerrilla movement, ora breakdown of the political system.The three main political partieshave exercised and transferredpower peacefully, and each ofthem plays an important role inthe democratic process. The polit-ical leadership of the country hassuccessfully dealt with difficulteconomic and political issues,through negotiations and consen-sus building.
The Dominican Republic hashad one of the fastest growingeconomies in Latin America, andour expanded economic base hasmade our economy stronger, moreflexible, and better able to compete.
We do have many challenges.We must continue to combatpoverty and inequality and expandeconomic and educational oppor-tunities for all Dominicans. Thequality of state institutions needs tobe improved as well.
We invite Foreign Policyand the Fund for Peace to visit theDominican Republic and take anew look at what our country isreally like. We know that the real-ity is very different from the oneportrayed in the index.
—Flavio D. EspinalDominican Ambassador to the United States
Washington, D.C.
The foreign-policy community isindebted to Foreign Policy forpublishing the first annual “FailedStates Index,” and to the Fund for
8 Foreign Policy
Peace for producing it. The indexbrings to the attention of readersa problem that has previouslybeen a preoccupation of only thehigher reaches of the U.S. foreign-policy establishment. About 2 bil-lion people live in insecure states,the study estimates. It is fromthese insecure states that the majorthreats to the security of the UnitedStates emanate. The U.S. Agencyfor International Development(usaid) has a uniquely establishedfield presence in fragile states toimplement its development andhumanitarian assistance mandate.
When I became administratorof usaid, I ordered a thoroughreassessment of operations to bet-ter al ign our work with thenational security imperatives ofPresident George W. Bush. Theresult was the 2004 White Paper,which elevated “StrengtheningFragile States” to one of five“core” missions of the agency.Since then, I charged policy plan-ners at the agency, in league withfield operatives and academicresearchers, to put forth a new“fragile states strategy.”
I consider the index with its12 indicators an important com-plement to our own “fragilityframework” and will make itmore widely available at theagency. The difficult task of“crafting solutions” is a majorpreoccupation of usaid. We arealso col laborat ing with theDepartment of State’s coordinatorfor reconstruction and stabiliza-tion to ensure that the UnitedStates employs all of its capabili-ties to address this challenge. Wehave, in effect, picked up the prob-lem where Foreign Policyleaves off.
—Andrew S. NatsiosAdministrator
U.S. Agency for International Development
Washington, D.C.
September | October 2005 9
“The Failed States Index” is a wel-come start for a detailed, relevantdiscussion of how failing states canavoid collapse. It should also aidour quest for understanding ofhow states can create viable polit-ical, social, and economic systems.
The index may soon generatediscussion as fruitful as that spurredby Freedom House’s 27-year-oldannual comparative assessment ofpolitical rights and civil liberties in210 political entities around theworld. Extending the index to suc-cessful states may produce surprises,too. Will the “uneven develop-ment” indicator survive as a usefulpredictor? Or will we find that manycountries with established demo-cratic political systems have highand growing levels of inequality?How might the “delegitimization ofthe state” indicator be broken downto suggest policy instruments forbuilding state success?
Scholars and policymakerswho have struggled for years tounderstand how conditions mightbe improved in the 60 countriesprofiled should be heartened thatanother tool is available to engagediscussion on this critical issue.Their counterparts, whose focushas been on the 150 countries thatwill hopefully be included in futurereports, should be able to moreeasily understand what lessons theycan or cannot usefully share; fueledby the knowledge that the conse-quences are relevant for all statesand their citizens, failed or not.
—Louis W. GoodmanDean
School of International ServiceAmerican University
Washington, D.C.
The Fund for Peace replies:The Failed States Index ranks states’susceptibility to armed conflict bylooking at a wide range of eco-nomic, military, political, and socialfactors. Most of the states in the
[ Letters ]
10 Foreign Policy
index have not yet failed, and many,it is hoped, never will.
The methodology employed inthese rankings is the product of asystematic, peer-reviewed andwidely employed system, testedand refined for more than adecade. The Conflict AssessmentSystems Tool indexes, scans, andscores tens of thousands of printand broadcast media sources. Formore information, readers areencouraged to visit the Web site ofthe Fund for Peace.
Measuring and ranking sus-ceptibility to state failure is a nec-essarily difficult and imprecise task,and the index, like all attempts tomeasure social and political phe-nomena, is imperfect. As Amb.Flavio Espinal correctly points out,the human rights indicator for theDominican Republic was worse thanthose for some countries known tohave far more serious human rightsviolations. That score, and others,will be reviewed in fine-tuning thesystem, which the Fund for Peaceis continually updating. But evenchanging that indicator would notsignificantly alter the DominicanRepublic’s overall ranking. Despitethe current government’s com-mendable efforts, the nation stillfaces major challenges.
The inherent imprecision ofsuch rankings does not underminethe utility of the methodology.Indeed, as the Ivory Coast,Colombia, and Peru demonstrate,the index reveals the widely vary-ing ways that states can be vul-nerable. While some encouragingtrends exist in each of these coun-tries, on balance, the risk is highfor all of them.
The Ivory Coast is already afailed state. Conflict there was suffi-ciently severe that it required exter-nal intervention. The peacekeepingmission has managed to inject somestability, but the country is still cut in
September | October 2005 11
[ Letters ]
about the causes of state failure,and stimulate early and effectiveremedial action.
A Heated DebatePollution is a sign of progress,development theorists argued in the1950s. In “State of Nature”(July/August 2005), Bjørn Lomborgfollows the same logic in tellingCarl Pope that we should not pri-oritize environmental concernswhile people are poor.
Prosperity has enabled us toachieve environmental progress inmany areas. But money will notbuy back the global commons thatwe are destroying. Tragically, it isthe poor who are paying the high-est price for the environmental sinsof the rich.
In many cases, we are simplypassing on the environmental costsof our lifestyle to the poor and tofuture generations. Letting otherspay for our environmental sinscannot be justified on moral oreconomic grounds.
Lomborg argues that the politicalwill to do the right thing is weak, andso we need to be even more selectivein protecting the environment. Thatis rather ironic, as Lomborg has spenthis career trying to destroy this polit-ical will through attacks on environ-mental science and policy.
—Peter BosshardPolicy Director
International Rivers NetworkBerkeley, Calif.
The greatest threat to human civ-ilization, dwarfing all others, isclimate change. Bjørn Lomborg’s per-spective on this topic is, to an Earthscientist, quite alien. It is curiouslyforeshortened, as if the Earth has nohistory and no dynamics of its own.It is akin to someone’s trying toexplain the current state of theUnited States and predict its futurebased entirely on events since the
half, with rival security forces vyingfor power. In fact, there are actuallythree parallel structures of control:the external peacekeeping forces, thegovernment, and the rebels.
Colombia possesses many of theattributes of a stable democracy,with relatively well-functioningstate institutions. Yet, after 40 yearsof civil war with revolutionary andparamilitary groups often fundedby drug money, roughly a third ofthe country remains under rebelcontrol. That on its own is animportant element of state weak-ness. The state has limited reach inareas under the control of insur-gents, who are operating as “stateswithin a state,” providing basicneeds and public services to citi-zens who are cut off from Bogotá.Until recently, Colombians couldnot travel safely on major high-ways. Narcotraffickers still com-mand enormous financial and even
political resources. Despite boldefforts to attack these problems, itwould be hard to argue thatColombia does not belong in a listof nations at risk.
For its part, Peru has commend-ably restored democracy followingthe abuses of former PresidentAlberto Fujimori’s regime, but thereremains a widespread perceptionof corruption, sharp economicinequality, and substantial rural dis-content. The government’s approvalratings rarely exceeded 10 percentin 2004. President Alejandro Toledo’schronic lack of popular support,when combined with already weakinstitutions and regional instability,creates significant vulnerability.
The good news is that leaderscan make a difference. As Adminis-trator Natsios and Dean Goodmanhelpfully point out, the purpose ofthis index was to highlight countriesat risk, provoke new thinking
12 Foreign Policy
[ Letters ]
year 2000. By all means, let’s berational, and prioritize globalproblems. But it is senseless toaddress today’s concerns whileneglecting this clear threat to ourchildren and grandchildren.
In just the last million years, theEarth’s climate and sea level haveundergone many fluctuations fargreater than anything experiencedsince human civilization began. Thecurrent 10,000-year phase of climatestability is the exception, not thenorm. Humanity’s sudden, giganticinjection of carbon dioxide into theatmosphere will almost certainlyderail that stability. The world willprobably warm within centuries, ifwe’re lucky, or decades, if we’re not,to levels not seen for several millionyears. Sea levels will then probablyrise by tens of feet as large parts ofthe polar ice sheets slide into theoceans. Humanity will then beassured of a bumpy ride into anincreasingly capricious future.
What to do? Mitigate, certainly.The first step here must be to reduceour dangerous addiction to fossilfuels. But we must also adapt, bypreparing for future warming alreadylocked into the Earth’s system. Ignor-ing the problem is not an option.The Earth works by its rules, notours. There is an upside, though:There’s money to be made in dealingwith climate change, and the globaleconomy can survive. Now is thetime to invest.
—Jan ZalasiewiczUniversity of Leicester
Leicester, England
When facts prove elusive, try rhetor-ical excess. This maxim seems toguide much of Carl Pope’s contribu-tion to the exchange. I’ll reluctantlywaive the chance to ponder a cou-ple of obvious fatuities. (But Imust remind readers of the fol-lowing examples: “Instead of pur-suing new solutions such as hybrid
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been called upon to provide training andservices to help communities in theUnited States and abroad respond to thetrauma of terrorist events.
www.gmu.edu/departments/icar
At the Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution (ICAR),
Take a look at Germany...from a fresh perspective.
again.LeaderStrategically located in the heart of Europe, Germany plays a major role in international current affairs.
PartnerPartners in trade, security, and the pursuit of peace, Germany and the US enjoy a relationship based on vital mutual interests, shared culture and values. A commitment to the advancement of democracy and human rights around the world makes Germany a key US ally.
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Think you know Germany?
www.
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Think
14 Foreign Policy
[ Letters ]
cars, the United States invadesIraq,” and Pope’s assertion thatBjørn Lomborg treats “the Earthas if it were Enron.”) But I willcomment on his belief that “solu-tions to the problems we face areat our fingertips.”
Hydrogen-fueled vehicles with-in our grasp? Carbon sequestra-tion just around the corner? Ithink not.
Among renewables, wind isthe only innovative energy sourcethat is beginning to produce com-petitively priced electricity; solar cellsare far from that point. The issuesunder discussion—integrity of theatmosphere, clean and ample water,rational transport—are real enoughand deserve relentless attention. But the solutions are not at Pope’sfingertips, or anyone else’s, forthat matter.
Lomborg is right to stress the
importance of priorities and trade-offs. Still, it seems facile to rely onan estimate of less than $10 perton of carbon to represent thedamage from global warmingcaused by the greenhouse effect.A $10 per ton carbon tax might bea decent, and perhaps politicallyfeasible, starting point for miti-gating carbon dioxide emissions;but my tea leaves presage a cli-mate change burden that will turnout to be far costlier.
Both writers seem to recognizethat economic growth poses unfore-seen environmental dilemmas.Improved living standards will sure-ly prompt people to demand clean-er and healthier surroundings. Buthigher incomes will also put height-ened pressure on unique ecosys-tems; imagine a much more con-gested Grand Canyon. A sense ofhumility—notably absent from this
debate—will help in meeting thesechallenges.
—Joel DarmstadterSenior Fellow
Resources for the FutureWashington, D.C.
Letters to AmericaAnne Applebaum’s essay “InSearch of Pro-Americanism”(July/August 2005) reminds us ofthe oft-overlooked fact that pro-Americans still exist outside theUnited States, and that their num-bers are anything but insignificant.But what do we actually mean by“pro-” and “anti-Americanism”?
The answer seems obvious.We can compare, as Applebaumdoes, the “favorable” and “unfa-vorable” ratings of the UnitedStates in various countries. But asingle survey question is notenough to pigeonhole an entire
16 Foreign Policy
The year 2005 promises to be decisive in the globalfight against poverty. The international agenda hasconverged around resolving the problem of extremepoverty, focusing especially on Africa.
This year marks the one-third point in the count-down to 2015, the target date for achievement of theUN’s Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Atthe Gleneagles Summit in July, G8 leaders agreed toincrease Official Development Assistance (ODA) by$50 billion per year by 2010, to double aid for Africaby the same year, and to cancel the debt of eligibleHeavily-Indebted Poor Countries to the WorldBank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), andthe African Development Bank. Developmentissues are at the top of the agenda of many otherinternational gatherings from the UN High LevelEvent in September to the WTO Ministerial inDecember.
As a group, the European Union – EU MemberStates and the European Commission (which hasprovided international development assistance sinceits founding in the late 1950s) – constitutes theworld’s largest single donor in this struggle againstpoverty. The massive European commitment todevelopment, over $50 billion in 2004, accounts formore than half of all official development aid tomore than 160 countries spanning the globe fromthe EU’s neighbors to Africa, the Middle East, LatinAmerica, and Asia.
To scale up its support toward reaching the MDGs,the EU has committed to meeting an ambitious
collective target of increasing ODA to 0.56 percentof gross national income by 2010 (up from 0.36 per-cent in 2004), then rising to 0.7 percent by 2015,bringing EU development aid to €90 billion annual-ly. The EU is striving to align its non-aid policies,such as trade, environment, fisheries, and agricul-ture with the eight MDGs while reinforcing its workon the African continent.
The European Commission has also proposed a newEU Development Policy that provides a commonframework for EU action, principles for implemen-tation of European Community and Member Stateaid, and a strategy for equitable globalization. Thepolicy will be considered by Member States and theEuropean Parliament for adoption before the end ofthe year.
“Europeans must focus on, and
act in, the wider world. This is
the kind of Europe I want. An
open Europe. A generous
Europe, which spreads drive
and determination for change
beyond its borders.”
José Manuel BarrosoPresident, European
CommissionMay 20, 2005
The EU Around the GlobeFighting Poverty, Hunger & Disease Promoting Economic Development & Prosperity
inside
Proposed New EU Development Policy, July 2005A common thematic framework for EC and Member States’ development policies responds to a range of situations and needs across the globe.
(a) Development of human rights and capacities and access to essential services.
(b) Governance for development and security.
(c) Environment and sustainable management of natural resources.
(d) Economic growth and trade development, factors in sustainable development.
(e) Food security and regional planning.
(f) Combating inequalities and promoting social cohesion, including decent work for all.
1
September 2005
2 The EU &InternationalDevelopment
6 Principles of EUDevelopmentAssistance
7 Trade: A PowerfulEconomicDevelopment Tool
8 The EU and itsNeighborhood
The European Commission and Member Statesaddress global development challenges by promot-ing economic and social advancement, supportingregional integration, addressing humanitarianneeds, facilitating trade, and encouraging democracyand transparency in government.
Africa, Caribbean, and Pacific Countries (ACP).The Cotonou Agreement (signed in 2000) is a 20-year partnership between the EU and 79 countriesrepresenting more than 650 million people. Itencompasses aid as well as preferential trade access tothe EU market negotiated with regional groupings ofACP countries. Regular political dialogue and a con-sultation and conflict resolution mechanism aim tofoster the fundamental and essential elements of thepartnership – democracy, human rights, the rule oflaw, and good governance.
Aid under the Cotonou Agreement is jointly man-aged by the European Commission and the recipientcountry to enhance ownership and sustainability.With nearly €13.5 billion in funding for 2000-2007,the EC is one of the two largest donors in most ACPcountries. In each country, the EC concentrates ontwo priority sectors determined by an evaluation ofexisting support programs.
The largest share of aid goes to economic reform,social services, and road infrastructure. The
European Investment Bank implements a €2.037 bil-lion investment facility to support the expansion ofthe private sector. Special initiatives announced at the2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development inJohannesburg include the EU water initiative, backedby $600 million to improve water supplies, and theEU Energy Initiative, providing $300 million toexpand sustainable energy services.
Mediterranean/Middle East. This year marks thetenth anniversary of the Barcelona Agreement, anambitious EU program (roughly €9 billion in assis-tance, 1995-2006) with a number of countries of theeastern and southern Mediterranean that lays thegroundwork for building a common area of peaceand stability. Through economic partnership andpromotion of reform, the EU endeavors to create azone of shared prosperity and good governance,including the establishment of a free trade area.
Asia and Latin America. Both Asia and LatinAmerica are characterized by large disparities in lev-els of development. Most of the world’s middle-income countries, home to large proportions of theworld’s poor, are located in Asia and Latin America,and trade and investment flows exceed official devel-opment assistance in importance.
The European Community’s development collabora-tion with Latin America focuses on enhancing
The EU & International
2
A Special Focus on AfricaSub-Saharan Africa is farther from the MDGsthan any other part of the world. Over 40 percentof the population lives below the poverty line. Incoming years, the EU will direct more than 50percent of all additional aid to Africa – totaling anadded €10 billion per year by 2010 and an extra€22 billion annually as of 2015. Both José ManuelBarroso, President of the European Commission,and Tony Blair, Prime Minister of the UnitedKingdom, which currently holds the EU’s rotatingpresidency, have called for generous increases inaid to Africa.
The EU’s MDG package proposes to accelerate theEU’s actions on the continent in a number of areasand in close collaboration with the African
Union/New Partnership for Africa’s Development.The package outlines plans to a) improve Africangovernance, b) invest in infrastructure, especiallytransport and telecommunications, to improve con-nections across the continent, and c) foster equi-table societies with equal access to services andpromotion of environmental sustainability.
African leaders met in early July at the AfricanUnion Summit in Libya and reaffirmed their com-mitment to reduce poverty and promote econom-ic growth; deepen transparency and goodgovernance; strengthen democratic institutions andprocesses; show zero tolerance for corruption; re-move all obstacles to intra-African trade; and bringabout lasting peace and security across the conti-nent.
Providing Humanitarian AssistanceAlong with the United States, the European Union is at the forefront of efforts to alleviate human suf-fering from natural disasters and conflicts around the world. The European Commission HumanitarianAid Office (ECHO) has provided more than €5 billion in emergency assistance since its establishmentin 1992.
ECHO works with more than 200 partners around the world, including UN agencies, the InternationalRed Cross, and non-governmental organizations. It has provided food, water, clothing, shelter, med-ical provisions, sanitation, emergency repairs, and mine clearing in more than 100 countries and re-gions, including Africa, Afghanistan, Iraq, Chechnya, Tajikistan, Nepal, Central America, the Palestinianterritories, and nations impacted by the devastating South Asian tsunami in December 2004.
“It is possible to eradicate
extreme poverty in a generation.
It is possible to improve
substantially the level of access
to basic social services. It is
possible to stop the spread of
AIDS, of tuberculosis, and of
malaria. It is possible to reverse
deforestation. All that can be
done. And if it is possible, then
we must do it.”
Louis MichelEuropean Commissioner for
Development & Humanitarian Aid
European Commissioner LouisMichel and LuxembourgCooperation and HumanitarianAction Minister J.L. Schultz atsite of Tsunami relief efforts inSri Lanka.
democracy, institutional strengthening, humanrights promotion, and encouraging social cohesion.Extensive political dialogue, trade, and economiccooperation take place both at the regional andbilateral level. The EU has been negotiating an asso-ciation agreement with the Mercosur countries(Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay) that willinclude the creation of a free trade area. Separatefree trade agreements already exist with Mexico andChile as part of broader association agreements.
While the Asia region is making good progress inreducing poverty, a number of countries and sub-regions continue to face institutional weakness, con-flict, and inequality, all of which disproportionatelyaffect the poor. Efforts have been stepped up in theareas of trade and investment; education, healthcare, and rural development; governance; humanrights and democracy; and conflict management.
3
DevelopmentHot IssuesAfghanistan. The EC and EU Member Stateshave pledged a combined total of €3.1 billion forreconstruction in Afghanistan from 2002 to 2006. Since 2002, the EuropeanCommission has provided over €657 million inreconstruction aid. Efforts focus mainly on foursectors: 1) health, 2) infrastructure, 3) rural de-velopment, including alternative livelihoods forfarmers dependent on poppy cultivation, and 4)public administration reform, including policeand electoral support.
Iraq. The EC and Member States are commit-ted to a stable, prosperous, and democratic Iraqthat contributes to regional stability. The EU isfunding the training of Iraqi judges, police, andcorrections officials; reconstruction work; elec-toral support; and the coordination and mobi-lization of international support. The EU hascollectively pledged €1.2 billion for humanitar-ian assistance, reconstruction, poverty reduc-tion, and the strengthening of governance, civilsociety, and human rights. Additional commit-ments are foreseen for job creation, capacity-building in energy and trade, strengtheningdemocracy and development of civil society.
Palestinian Territories. The EC has allocated€28.3 million in humanitarian aid for one mil-lion Palestinians in the occupied territories andLebanon. The aid will provide food, water, andsanitation services, employment opportunities,health care, psychosocial support and protectionfor the poorest Palestinians and those most af-fected by movement restrictions.
Tsunami Relief. Early in 2005, the 25 EUMember States and the EC committed a total of€1.5 billion in humanitarian and reconstruc-tion aid, including funds to rebuild infrastruc-ture and restore livelihoods, for victims of theDecember 2004 tsunami disaster in Asia.
Darfur. The EU has mobilized more than €570million in humanitarian relief and refugee assis-tance in response to the Darfur crisis, where ithelped broker a cease-fire agreement that itcontinues to monitor.
HIV/AIDS, Malaria, Tuberculosis. In an eradominated by the HIV/AIDS pandemic, the con-nection between global health and developmentissues is clear. The EU puts a priority on the bigthree killer diseases in developing countries –HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria – and theEuropean Commission contributes roughly €240million annually to the UN-administered GlobalFund to combat the illnesses, making it the sec-ond largest individual donor after the UnitedStates. The EC and EU Member States are devel-oping a common “roadmap” for joint action atthe country level as well as globally.
Millennium Development Goals(MDGs)The international community agreed to a set ofambitious objectives—the MillenniumDevelopment Goals—at the United NationsMillennium Summit in 2000. The September2005 UN High Level Event will review progresstoward each of those eight goals.
1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerTarget: Reduce global population living on lessthan $1 a day by 50 percent.
2. Achieve universal primary educationTarget: Ensure all boys and girls completeprimary school.
3. Promote gender equality and empowerwomenTarget: Eliminate gender disparities in primaryand secondary education by 2010, all levels by2015.
4. Reduce child mortalityTarget: Reduce global child mortality rate bytwo-thirds.
5. Improve maternal healthTarget: Reduce women dying in childbirth bythree-quarters.
6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis,and other diseasesTarget: Halt and reverse the spread ofHIV/AIDS, malaria, TB, and other diseases.
7. Ensure environmental sustainabilityTarget: Incorporate sustainable developmentinto country policies, halve proportion of worldpopulation without clean water and sanitation.
8. Develop a global partnership for developmentTarget: Make progress on a set of targets relat-ing to debt relief, good governance, access tomedications, access to new technologies, andemployment for young people.
“The EU is based on values
common to all its Member
States, which it affirms and
promotes in its relations with
the rest of the world. These
values include respect for
human dignity, freedom,
democracy, equality, and the
rule of law and human rights.”
Towards a EuropeanConsensus for Development,
European Commission development policy
communication, July 13, 2005
4
European Union Official Devel
43%
16%9%
9%6%
17%
EU Official Development Assistance by Regionaverage 2002-2003
■ Sub-Saharan Africa 43%
■ Middle East/North Africa 16%
■ Latin America/Caribbean 9%
■ South & Central Asia 9%
■ Other Asia & Oceania 6%
■ Europe 17%
Europe$2.829 billion
Latin America and Caribbean$2.198 billion
Source: OECD
et(EC and EU Member State ODA, average net
5
opment Assistance by Regiondisbursements, 2001-2002. Source: OECD)
Sub-SaharanAfrica
Latin Americaand Caribbean
Middle East and North Africa
South and Central Asia
Other Asia and Oceania
Source: OECD
51%
42%
38%
24% 23%
Middle Eastand North Africa$2.196 billion
Sub-SaharanAfrica $8.246 billion
South &Central Asia$1.898 billion
Other Asia and Oceania$1.645 billion
EU Share of Total ODA by Region
A leader in international development efforts, theEU is constantly working to improve the quality andeffectiveness of its aid. Five fundamental conceptsdefine the EU’s development policy.
■ Harmonization. The EU works to harmonize itsaid procedures with those of other donors andpartner countries to reduce transaction costs. TheEU has adopted an ambitious action plan withconcrete and measurable targets related to own-ership, harmonization, alignment, results, andmutual accountability. The new policy boosts theshare of aid provided as direct budget support todeveloping country governments that have soundanti-poverty and development strategies.
■ Results-Orientation. Success of development efforts is judged by concrete achievements – particularly as measured against the MillenniumDevelopment Goals – rather than by inputs. Thefocus on results is reflected in country strategypapers, budget support programs, and projects.Since 1999, the Commission has linked budgetsupport programs in ACP countries (and morerecently, its sectoral budget support in someMEDA, Asian, and Latin American countries) tothe evolution of key indicators drawn from theNational Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers andlinked to the MDGs (e.g., child vaccination rate,
primary school enrollment for girls, primaryschool completion rate).
■ Ownership. Development efforts cannot be successful if recipient countries do not “take ownership” of the assistance programs. The EU encourages involvement of official institutions, inparticular national assemblies, parliaments andlocal authorities, as well as participation of civilsociety and non-state actors. The EuropeanCommission aligns its aid with the national budg-et process and its implementation mechanisms.
■ Coherence. To ensure coherence (or coordina-tion) between development and other policy areas, the EU has identified 10 non-aid policy areas in which measures will be taken with a viewto reaching the MDGs – environment, climatechange, security, trade, fisheries, agriculture,research and innovation, the information society,transport, and energy.
■ Multilateralism. Because all countries mustshare the responsibility for promoting develop-ment and coping with risks to global security, theEU strongly supports an effective multilateral system. The Commission and Member Stateswork closely with the United Nations, the WorldBank, regional entities in Africa, Asia, and theAmericas, and other partners.
6
Principles of EU DevelopmentAssistance Effectiveness, Results-Orientation, and Country Ownership
■ Pre-Accession Instrument (IPA) for currentand future EU candidate countries, e.g.,Turkey, Croatia, and other potential candidatecountries in the Western Balkans.
■ European Neighborhood and PartnershipInstrument (ENPI) for countries eligible forthe European Neighborhood Policy (includingUkraine, Moldova, and Belarus as well ascountries in the southern Caucasus and thesouth and eastern Mediterranean) and also forRussia. The ENPI will focus on supporting anagreed upon reform agenda as well as innova-tive cross-border cooperation to bring togetherregions of Member States with neighboringcountries sharing a common border.
■ Development Cooperation and EconomicCooperation Instrument (DCECI) for allcountries, territories, and regions not eligiblefor assistance under either the Pre-Accession
Instrument or the European Neighborhoodand Partnership Instrument.
■ Macro-Financial Assistance (MFA) for eco-nomic stabilization and structural reform inbeneficiary countries. In close coordinationwith IMF and World Bank programs, MFApromotes tailored policies designed to helpcountries stabilize their financial situation andestablish competitive, market-orientedeconomies.
■ The Instrument for Stability (IfS) for provid-ing a timely, effective, and integrated responseto crisis and instability in non-EU countries.IfS addresses global and trans-regional issuessuch as nuclear safety and non-proliferation,trafficking, organized crime, and terrorism.
■ The Humanitarian Aid Instrument (ECHO)for humanitarian assistance, including foodaid (dealt with previously under a separate instrument).
Funding InstrumentsTo improve aid quality and efficiency, the European Commission has decided to replace a complexweb of funding instruments that have evolved since the late 1950s with a simpler, more streamlinedsystem. Beginning in 2007, the new framework will be comprised of only six instruments, four ofthem new.
EU-U.S. Cooperationin Development:Shared Goals andValues The European Union andthe United States togetheraccount for 80 percent ofofficial developmentassistance and an evenlarger share of globalhumanitarian assistance.They are both dedicatedto fighting poverty andhelping developingcountries reach theMillennium DevelopmentGoals by 2015.Recognizing that theglobal fight againstHIV/AIDS/Malaria/Tuberculosis can only bewon jointly, the EU andthe U.S. are the majordonors to the GlobalFund. And both theEuropean Union and theUnited States are commit-ted to supporting country“ownership” of thedevelopment process as arequisite for developmentsuccess.
During his visit toWashington in January2005, EU Developmentand Humanitarian AidCommissioner LouisMichel underlined theimportance of workingtogether, stressing theclose interrelationshipbetween development andsecurity. The EU andU.S. coordinate closely inpost-conflict reconstruc-tion efforts in countries inAsia, Africa, and theMiddle East and jointlysupport countries in theirendeavors to achievedemocratic reforms andenhance governance.
Trade and development are crucial and deeply-intertwined issues – to eradicate extreme poverty,both must be addressed simultaneously. Becausetrade liberalization leads to greater economicgrowth, it is a vital tool to supplement officialdevelopment assistance.
Globalization can bring economic benefits to all,including developing countries, provided appro-priate rules are in place and special efforts aremade to integrate developing economies. The EUis a strong supporter of the World TradeOrganization (WTO) and is working for a success-ful round of trade negotiations under the DohaDevelopment Agenda, which specifically addressesissues of crucial importance to developing coun-tries. The round is centered on the following areas:
■ Agriculture. As the mainstay of the livelihoodof the vast majority of poor people in thedeveloping world, agricultural support is acentral element of the Doha agenda. Reducingstate support for agricultural production in theEU, the U.S. and other developed countries willraise world market prices for agriculturalproducts and allow developing countries tocompete in a more open market. The EUsupports an agreement by which exportsubsidies will be phased out entirely over time.Under the reform of the Common AgriculturalPolicy (CAP) adopted in 2003, domesticsupport for farmers has already been“decoupled” from the quantities produced,thereby reducing trade distortion.
■ Non-Agriculture Market Access. Reducingtariffs on manufactured products will provideopportunities for poorer countries, includingthe possibility to increase exports to moreadvanced developing countries.
■ Services. Services are becoming the backboneof many economies. Liberalizing the servicessector, particularly in telecommunications,financial services, transport, and business-related services, represents an untappedpotential for growth, income, and employmentin both developed and developing countries.While the EU is the world’s largest exporter and importer of services, developing countriesaccount for nearly 30 percent of global services trade.
■ Trade facilitation. Improving customs systemsand procedures will expand global trade byreducing costs, red tape, and delays related tomoving goods around the world.
The EU: Global Leadership &Innovative ActionThe European Union is the world’s single largesttrading entity, accounting for 20 percent of globalexports and imports. The EU is also the principaland most accessible trading partner of the world’spoorer countries – 40 percent of EU imports orig-inate in developing countries, amounting to €362billion worth of trade in 2004.
The EU is actively promoting better access to tradefor developing countries through its “Everythingbut Arms Initiative”, which grants 49 LeastDeveloped Countries access to the EU market forall products except arms. At the July G8 Summit inGleneagles, Scotland, José Manuel Barroso,President of the European Commission, pledged€1 billion per year to help build the trading capac-ity of developing countries, thereby enabling themto make the most of export opportunities provid-ed by market openings. The EU is already thelargest donor of trade-related assistance, and thissupport will increase from €750 million annuallytoday to €1 billion per year in 2007-2013.
Economic Partnership Agreements(EPAs)Economic Partnership Agreements negotiatedbetween the EU and regional groupings of the ACPare replacing the unilateral trade preferences granted to ACP countries in the past. Tools forboth trade and development, EPAs foster greaterinter-regional trade ties between ACP countriesand will gradually lead to the development of freetrade areas to strengthen regional integration,improve the level of specialization, and reduce production and transaction costs, thereby increasing ACP country competitiveness. EPAs areaccompanied by development assistance under theCotonou Agreement.
“[O]pen trade is in fact the single
most effective tool for ending
global poverty and achieving
sustainable development....
[D]evelopment must remain at
the heart of the Doha Round,
delivering improved market
access for all WTO members,
through additional North-South
trade, but also by promoting and
facilitating South-South trade.”
Peter MandelsonEU Commissioner for Trade
7
EU FactsIn 2003, more than 80 percent of all exports from developing countries entered the EU duty-free or at greatly reduced duty rates. The EU imports more agricultural products fromdeveloping countries than the United States, Japan, and Canada combined.
EU Trade Commissioner PeterMandelson meets with U.S.Trade Representative RobertPortman in Washington
Trade: A Powerful EconomicDevelopment Tool
“The European Neighborhood
Policy aims to create a ring of
friends, based on shared values
and common or converging
interests, and where the peace,
stability, and prosperity that the
European Union has enjoyed
over the last half-century are
shared with our neighbors to the
east and south.”
Benita Ferrero-WaldnerEuropean Commissioner for
External Relations & EuropeanNeighborhood Policy
8
For further information and additional references: http://www.eurunion.org/eufocus
DELEGATION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION
EUROPEAN UNIONTO THE USA
EU Focus is published bi-monthly bythe Delegation of the EuropeanCommission to the United States.
Stella ZervoudakiHead, Communications & Public AffairsEditor-in-Chief
Ben HarrisonEditor
Melinda StevensonAsst. Editor
Delegation of the EuropeanCommission to the United States2300 M Street, NWWashington, DC 20037202.862.9500
www.eurunion.orgemail: [email protected]
The EU and its NeighborhoodThe EU has been a major force for democratiza-tion and the development of market economies onthe European continent. Most recently, the Unionwas instrumental in helping countries acrossEastern Europe make a peaceful transition fromcommunism – the prospects of EU membershipand the economic benefits that would bring werepowerful forces for change. The EU is engaged insimilar processes in the Western Balkans today,where peacekeeping is also a major responsibility.
A little over 50 years ago, the EU itself was begun asa “peace process” built around economic coopera-tion, shared sovereignty, and the idea that coun-tries with tightly intertwined economies would notwage war against one another. Through outwardpolicies – such as enlargement, trade, and develop-ment, including assistance to less-developedMember States and the Union’s near neighbors, theEuropean Union has dramatically changed theEuropean landscape.
The Balkans: Stabilization &Association Process (SAP) The EU’s Stabilization & Association Process(SAP) for South & Eastern Europe and the
prospect of eventual membership in the EuropeanUnion serve as motivating forces for change inAlbania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, theFormer Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia(FYROM), and Serbia & Montenegro.
After the violent conflicts of the 1990s, the SAP wascreated to bring stability and prosperity to theregion. It aims to promote the rule of law and freemarket economies under democratic and stablegovernmental institutions. Stabilization &Association Agreements (SAAs) between individ-ual countries and the EU spell out the formalmechanisms and agreed benchmarks on eachcountry’s path toward EU standards. IndividualSAAs focus on respect for key democratic princi-ples and the core elements of the EU’s internalmarket, allowing each SAP country to take meas-ures aimed at integrating its economy with theEuropean market.
EU economic and technical assistance to SAPcountries forms an important part of the associa-tion process, as does the promotion of increasedtrade and neighborly relations among the SAPcountries.
The European Neighborhood Policy (ENP)
The EU’s European Neighborhood Policy was developed in the context of the Union’s 2004enlargement to share the benefits with the immediate neighbors of the enlarged Union. TheENP offers the chance to cooperate closely with the EU on political, security, economic, andcultural affairs – thus helping to promote stability, security, and prosperity while working toavoid the emergence of new dividing lines between the enlarged EU and its neighbors.
The ENP’s privileged relationships are built on mutual commitments to shared values such asrespect for the rule of law and human rights, good governance, and the principles of marketeconomy and sustainable development. For the poorest countries, poverty reduction basedon the recipients’ own strategy is a key factor supported by the EU and ENP states. ActionPlans that reflect the shared commitment of the EU and individual ENP countries to a reformagenda have been developed to translate the goals of the ENP into reality.
EU neighbors participating in the ENP are: Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Egypt,Georgia, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Moldova, Morocco, the Palestinian Authority, Syria,Tunisia, and Ukraine. (For Belarus, the offer of ENP participation is contingent upon demo-cratic reform. Libya would need to become part of the Barcelona Process, accepting the“Barcelona Acquis” of policies and principles centered on promotion of democracy, respectfor human rights, and the rule of law, before an Association Agreement and eventual partici-pation in the ENP. For Syria, the Association Agreement will have to be ratified before an ENPAction Plan can be considered.)
Mostar bridge reconstruction.
2006 Gelber Prize
C A L L F O R B O O K S
The Lionel Gelber Prize was established in 1989. It seeks to deepen public debate on significant
global issues by broadening the readership of important non-fiction books on international
affairs. The Lionel Gelber Prize is presented annually by The Lionel Gelber Foundation in
partnership with the Munk Centre for International Studies at the University of Toronto and
FOREIGN POLICY.
To be eligible for the 2006 Gelber Prize, books must be published between 1 January 2005
and 31 December 2005. The deadline for submissions is 31 October 2005. Manuscripts to be
published between 31 October and 31 December 2005 may be submitted in galley form.
Complete rules of eligibility are available on our website at www.utoronto.ca/mcis/gelber.
This year’s Gelber Prize winner was Steve Coll, associate editor of the Washington Post, for his
book Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan, and bin Laden, from the Soviet
Invasion to September 10, 2001, published by The Penguin Press.
For more information contact:
Prize Manager, The Lionel Gelber PrizeMunk Centre for International Studies
University of Toronto1 Devonshire Place
Toronto, Ontario, Canada M5S 3K7Telephone: (416) 946-8901
Fax: (416) 946-8915Email: [email protected]: www.utoronto.ca/mcis/gelber
THE LIONEL GELBERP R I Z E
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MUNK CENTREFOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
UN I V E R S I T Y O F TO R O N T O
A T TR I N I T Y C O L L E G E
[ Letters ]
people as pro- or anti-American. Anti- and pro-Americanism are
structural forces, deeply embedded ina country’s political culture. Theyare not one day’s aggregation ofpublic opinion, which is a reflectionof short-term trends rather than civilizational strength or decay.European anti-Americanism, likeAmerican anti-Europeanism, is aproduct of deep-seated bias and dis-trust that predates the presidency ofGeorge W. Bush. These “isms” areamong the “internal processes ofdecay” that political scientistSamuel Huntington fretted couldbring the West to its knees in TheClash of Civilizations and theRemaking of the World Order,published in 1996.
The example of Polanddemonstrates how difficult it is topoll for pro-Americanism. Polandhas consolidated a pro-Americanreputation through its militaryinvolvement in Iraq and enthusi-asm about the tide of Americanpolitics. But if we focus on Iraq-specific opinion over time, thepro-American/anti-American dis-tinction all but disappears. In aMay 2003 study conducted byPolish polling firm cbos, only 33percent of Poles opposed theircountry’s military participation inthe Iraq campaign. By May 2005,75 percent said Polish troopsshouldn’t be there. If opposition toburden sharing in Iraq represented anindex of anti-Americanism, Poland’s“anti-American” rating wouldhave more than doubled since2003. Yet in the Pew Global Atti-tudes Project’s May 2005 survey,62 percent of Poles rated the Unit-ed States “favorably.” Poles con-tinue to support the United Stateseven as they withdraw support fora specific U.S. policy.
So if not surveys, then what? AsApplebaum suggests, pro-American-ism is most visible when countries
participate in American commerce,tourism, and popular culture. Weneed to recognize that actions speaklouder than words. As long as peo-ple the world over keep paying withVisa, visiting Florida, and watchingStar Wars, the United States can sat-isfy itself that pro-Americanism isalive and well, whatever the pollsmay say about Iraq and Bush.
—Piotr H. KosickiFulbright Fellow
Center for East European StudiesUniversity of Warsaw
Warsaw, Poland
Like Anne Applebaum, I was inLondon on Sept. 11, 2001. I toofound that people were quite solici-tous upon hearing my Americanaccent. But that feeling left the cityalmost immediately. What I wasnot prepared for was the virulentanti-Americanism that I wouldencounter in British academe.
As Applebaum notes, the edu-cational elite does not share thepro-Americanism of Britain’s work-ing class. One faculty member at a jobinterview asked how it felt to be likethe Nazis during World War ii. Thispoor—educated—fool believed thatAmericans were akin to Nazis. Howwas one to answer such nonsense? IfI pointed out to him that half of theAmericans I knew did not vote forBush, it didn’t seem to matter. WhatI was facing was pure prejudice.
I’ve stopped asking myself wholikes Americans and who doesn’t.What I ask myself is how I can por-tray my “American-ness” to peoplein London, across Europe, andthroughout the world, wherever Iam living. My task is to let themknow that not every American ispower-mad and oil-crazed.
—M.G. Stephens Kingston University
London, England
My own pro-Americanism comes,in part, from the historical causes
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18 Foreign Policy
that Applebaum identifies: My fatherfought from Sicily to Rome withAmerican gis to defeat Europeanfascism. But it also has more emo-tional and aesthetic roots. Watchingthe arc of the ball as the New YorkYankees catcher Jorge Posadathrows out a runner at second,and listening to Jimmy Hamilton’sand Harry Carney’s clarinets talk-ing low to Claude Jones’s trom-bone in the Duke Ellington song“Fugueaditty” both remind mehow much I love America. Thereis much more to America than itsgovernment.
—Alan JohnsonKendal, England
The Iraq war sparked a wave ofanti-American demonstrationsacross Europe. But what the pro-testors really feared was notAmerica but change. They fearedthat change would lay bareEurope’s nonexistence, threatenits privileges, and possibly reigniteold feuds.
In Europe, the world wars of the20th century were civil wars thatdestroyed the cultural backbone thathad held the continent together forcenturies. Deep down, Europeansknow that nothing holds themtogether now except economicand social benefits. The EuropeanUnion is an effort to build a mod-icum of social unity from Franceto Poland. But it is failing andeverybody knows it. In such con-ditions, anything that might rockthis fragile boat is seen as a threat.
As tens of millions of Euro-peans sided with a fascist dictatoragainst America and freedom,many of us decided that the onlydecent attitude was to take theopposite position and supportAmerica’s attempt in Iraq. Apple-baum and other Americansshould rest assured that there aremany of us who will stand by the
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The university invites applications andnominations for a founding dean to bring vision and leadership to the school. Applications will be acceptedthrough December 31, 2005, or until the position is filled. To learn more, visitwww.sandiego.edu/academics/peace.
September | October 2005 19
United States as long as it standsfor freedom.
—Jan MarejkoGeneva, Switzerland
A Question ofCharacterIn “Fund-Razing in Argentina”(May/June 2005), Richard Lapperreviewed recent books by ErnestoTenembaum and Marcelo Bonellithat attempt to explain the policyfailures that caused Argentina’s $81billion default and the social chaos of2001–02. As a second-generationArgentine, I would like to suggestthat these failings were ones of char-acter, not policy.
The sad truth is that Argentinesare afflicted with character flawsof mythological proportions thatrender them vulnerable to disaster.Dishonesty, indolence, and hubrisare traits deeply ingrained in the
Argentine national character. Theseflaws have led to a joke among neigh-boring Hispanics: The best businessin the world is to buy an Argentinefor what he’s worth and sell him forwhat he thinks he’s worth. Pridecomes all too naturally to the descen-dants of imperial Rome and Spain.
The Argentine nation, blessedby nature but cursed by character,flirts with anarchy and bankrupt-cy to the sound of pots beatenfrom balconies by angry citizens.Desperately frustrated, Argen-tines blame their troubles on theInternational Monetary Fund andthe United States, presumably forhaving the temerity to lend them$132 billion. Or they blame theirelected officials—anybody butthemselves. They remain obliviousto the fact that, in a democracy,you generally get the governmentyou deserve.
The people seek a savior, acaudillo who will guide them tothe prosperity and prominencethey believe to be rightfully theirs.But there can be no prosperity orprominence without integrity,honesty, hard work, humility,and cooperation. Until Argentinesmeet the enemy, and discover that“it is us,” the clanging pots willdrown out the sublime strains ofthe tango in the land of silver.
—David L. SmithHouston, Texas
Foreign Policy welcomes letters tothe editor. Readers should address theircomments to [email protected] or to:
Foreign PolicyAttn. Letters Editor1779 Massachusetts Ave., nwWashington, dc 20036
Letters should not exceed 300 words
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20 Foreign Policy
September | October 2005 21
INBOX
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India’s rural voters tossed the rul-ing Bharatiya Janata Party out of
power in 2004 because they felt leftout of India’s economic boom. Butthe caste system—a religiouslyinspired form of social hierarchy—may be holding these voters backmore than any government policy.
Two economists, Karla Hoff andPriyanka Pandey, set out to discoverwhat effect, if any, the caste systemhas on economic performance. In anorth Indian village, the researchersoffered a group of 11–12-year-oldboys money for each puzzle theysolved within an allotted period oftime. The low-caste boys did slight-ly better than their high-caste coun-terparts when they weren’t aware of
each other’s socialrank before the exer-cise. However, every-one’s performancesuffered after thecaste of each studentwas announced in aroll call. “We thoughtthat the low-castechildren were eitherexpecting to be dis-criminated against,felt more anxious, orboth,” says Hoff.
A second experi-ment designed toanswer that questionrevealed that low-caste boys weremost motivated to perform when thecriteria were objective and fixed, andleast motivated when the gradingseemed subjective. “The low-castechildren expected to be unfairly treat-ed when caste was made salient,which for these children, happens tobe every day of their lives,” saysHoff, who will publish the findingsin an upcoming issue of Economicsof Transition.
Officially, caste is outlawed bythe Indian constitution, which was
written in 1948 by a member of thelowest “untouchable” caste. Thegovernment has practiced affirma-tive action for years in an effort toaddress the problem, reserving seatsin state legislatures, schools, andbureaucracies for members of thelower castes. But, as the researchsuggests, old beliefs die hard in ruralIndia. Oddly enough, there may bea market solution to the problem. Inurban India, where capitalism runsmost freely, cash trumps caste almostevery time.
Caste Off
Marking the untouchables: Elementary students in Rajasthan, India.
British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s high-profile ini-tiatives have turned Africa into the frontline of the
war on poverty. But radical Islamists may be making itthe latest front in the war on terror. One in four suicidebombers in Iraq is now African. The United Nationsrecently reported that al Qaeda has set up bases in Nige-ria. Terrorist attacks within the region are also becomingmore common. In June, an al Qaeda affiliate killed 15people in Mauritania in West Africa. The United States’European Command now argues that Africa is of “grow-ing strategic importance” in the war on terror.
Concerned that faltering African states might becomethe next Afghanistan, the United States is building up itsanti-terror presence on the continent. In June, the U.S. mil-itary unveiled the Flintlock exercise—the largest Ameri-can military deployment in Africa since World War ii. Theanti-terror training mission, more than a year in planning,involves nine North and West African countries and all
four branches of the U.S. mili-tary. The United States ulti-mately plans to spend $100million a year for five years ina bid to prevent the area frombecoming a terrorist haven.
Some question whether alarge-scale U.S. military exer-cise is a good idea for such avolatile part of the world. Jen-nifer Cooke, an Africa expert atthe Center for Strategic and International Studies, thinksthat an American presence that is “overwhelmingly mil-itary is likely to create more suspicions than it winsfriends.” Indeed, the terrorists who struck in Mauritaniadescribed the attack as a “hit against the Flintlock plan putin place by the enemy of God, America, and its agents inthe region.” Flintlock may already be sparking a backfire.
Africa’s Second Front
Uncle Sam wants him, too.
22 Foreign Policy
ILLU
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FP
In nanotechnology, size is every-thing. Operating at the level of
a billionth of a meter can allow sci-entists to manipulate the most basicinteractions between atoms andmolecules to create new structuresthat would not otherwise exist innature. The possibilities are limit-less, which is what concerns somepeople. Many Westerners worrythat nanotechnology could resultin out-of-control “nanomachines”that would turn us all into “graygoo.” At the moment, that seems alittle far-fetched, as nanotech ishardly being used to challenge thefundamentals of life. Instead, in theWest, it is mainly being used tomake such stunning advances as,well, stain-resistant pants.
Not so in the developing world.There, the newest in nanotech is
being used to provide life’s basics:clean water, healthy crops, andsources of energy. Peter Singer,director of the University of Toron-to’s Joint Centre for Bioethics andcoauthor of the report “Nano-technology and the DevelopingWorld,” was surprised to find thatdeveloping countries are leading thedeveloped world in some nanotechfields. India and China, for exam-ple, are the world’s leaders in med-ical nanotech, and Brazil hasinvented nano-organisms that helpclean up and recycle oil spills.
Within a decade, nanotech willallow solar cells to channel 100 per-cent of the sun’s energy, freeingdeveloping countries from the con-straints of high oil prices and ineffi-cient national power grids. Today,the best cells manage 12 percent.
So, howmuch is nanotech worth to thedeveloping world? Singer says thatyou can’t put a price on it. But hemuses that “if nanotech does fora couple of these countries whatinformation technology did forIndia,” then it just may catapultthem out of poverty. Perhapsgooey is good.
China’s Hill to ClimbWhy are U.S.-China relations becoming increasingly strained on everything from Unocal to the valueof the yuan? A new poll suggests that attitudes on Capitol Hill may be to blame.
Micro Managing
Source: Committee of 100 and Zogby International
24 Foreign Policy
[ In Box ]
U.N. Secretary-General KofiAnnan chose Mark Malloch
Brown to lead an effort to reformthe United Nations. FP spoke tohim to find out whether the worldbody will ever get its house in order.
Foreign Policy: How confidentare you that the U.N. GeneralAssembly meeting will implementthe proposed reforms?
Mark Malloch Brown: Externalpolitical events—the current diffi-culties within Europe, the level oftension between China and Japan,nuclear problems in countries such asIran and North Korea—provide ahighly confrontational, difficult envi-ronment in which to restructure theinstitution. And if it is compoundedby a lot of internal U.N. difficulty—the Oil-for-Food problem that won’tgo away and continued questioningof the U.N.’s leadership—then ofcourse, the summit may flop.
FP: When you became Annan’s chiefof staff, you said that the first thingthe United Nations needed was sen-ior management accountability. Isthat accountability now in place?
MMB: On the way. You don’t fix asystem overnight [that] has settledinto ruts that have been dug over60 years.
FP: How much do you think Oil–for-Food has damaged the UnitedNations?
MMB: A lot, and the days when itcould be shrugged off as a politicallymotivated story out of Washingtonare long gone.
FP: The House of Representativesrecently voted to halve U.S. dues
to the United Nations. Why doyou think there’s such hostilitytoward the United Nations in theUnited States?
MMB: This is a country that hasshown erratic swings of the pendu-lum in terms of its attitude towardthe organization. In a way, Americadesigned it and expected the mostfrom it, and has therefore given in tothe angriest disappointment whenit [is] thought not to have delivered.But…[there’s also] a reluctance toengage in any system in whichAmerica is bending its knee to thediktat of others…. [Oil-for-Food]began as an investigation that wouldnever have gotten the attention—the limelight—it did if it hadn’t beenfor the [United States’] punitive urgeto pay back the United Nations forthe position it [took] on Iraq.
FP: When you came into your job,you said that you thought the Unit-ed Nations was in crisis. Do youthink it’s still in crisis now?
MMB: Yes I do, and the opportuni-ty is there because member states areup in arms at the shortcomings thathave been exposed. Entrenched inter-ests inside the organization are inretreat but are not defeated. But it’salso a very dangerous moment.There is a tremendous, seethingresistance in the organization, a wishthat all this would go away and thatit could settle back into comfortablemediocrity again.
UNreformable?
Is the era of U.S. economic primacyover? The twin deficits, the rise ofChina, and outsourcing have per-suaded many that it is. But haven’twe heard all this before? FP dips intoits archives to look back at othermoments when U.S. economic powerseemed to be slipping away.
“Since the current trade imbalance isoutside the range of historical experi-
ence, no one knows how much thedollar would have to fall to balance
America’s international accounts.However, the number is apt to be large
enough to scare everyone.”—Lester C. Thurow and
Laura D’Andrea Tyson “The Economic Black Hole”
(Summer 1987)
“[Japan’s] economy will become aslarge in absolute dollar terms as
America’s early in the next decade….Japan could be described as “an eco-
nomic giant but a political pygmy”during the Cold War, but the
United States must avoid the reverse appellation in the years ahead.”
—C. Fred Bergsten
“New Foreign Policies: The Primacy
of Economics” (Summer 1992)
“Much has been made of U.S. dependence on foreign energy, but thecountry’s dependence on foreign cash
is even more distressing. In a realsense, the countries that hold U.S. cur-rency and securities in their banks also
hold U.S. prosperity in their hands.” —Lawrence Summers
“America Overdrawn” (July/August 2004)
Download the full text of these arti-cles and others in the FP Archive atwww.ForeignPolicy.com.
In HindsightEconomic Panic
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26 Foreign Policy
T H I N KA G A I N
No. Trafficking of women and children (and, morerarely, young men) for prostitution is a vile andheinous violation of human rights, but labor traffick-ing is probably more widespread. Evidence can befound in field studies of trafficking victims across theworld and in the simple fact that the worldwide mar-ket for labor is far greater than that for sex. Statisticson the “end use” of trafficked people are often unre-liable because they tend to overrepresent the sex trade.For example, men are excluded from the traffickingstatistics gathered in Thailand because, according toits national law, men cannot qualify as trafficking vic-tims. However, a detailed 2005 study by the
International Labour Organization (ILO) found that,of the estimated 9.5 million victims of forced labor inAsia, less than 10 percent are trafficked for commer-cial sexual exploitation. Worldwide, less than half ofall trafficking victims are part of the sex trade, accord-ing to the same report.
Labor trafficking, however, is hardly benign. Astudy of Burmese domestic workers in Thailand byMahidol University’s Institute for Population and SocialResearch found beatings, sexual assault, forced laborwithout pay, sleep deprivation, and rape to be common.Another study, by the German Agency for TechnicalCooperation (gtz), looked at East African girls traf-ficked to the Middle East and found that most werebound for oppressive domestic work, and often rapedand beaten along the way. Boys from Cambodia andBurma are also frequently trafficked onto deep-seacommercial fishing boats, some of which stay at sea for
Judging by news headlines, human trafficking is a recent phenomenon. In
fact, the coerced movement of people across borders is as old as the laws
of supply and demand. What is new is the volume of the traffic—and the
realization that we have done little to stem the tide. We must look beyond
our raw emotions if we are ever to stop those who trade in human lives.
“Most Victims Are Trafficked into the Sex Industry”
David A. Feingold is director of the Ophidian Research Institute
and international coordinator for HIV/AIDS and Trafficking Pro-
jects for UNESCO Bangkok. This article reflects his own views,
and not necessarily those of UNESCO.
HUMANTRAFFICKING
By David A. Feingold
September | October 2005 27
up to two years. Preliminary research suggests 10 per-cent of these young crews never return, and boys thatbecome ill are frequently thrown overboard.
The focus on the sex industry may galvanize actionthrough moral outrage, but it can also cloud reason. Arecent example is the unsubstantiated press reports thattsunami orphans in Indonesia’s Aceh province werebeing abducted by organized gangs of traffickers. How
such gangs could operate in an area bereft of roads andairstrips remains unclear, but that did not stop some U.S.organizations from appealing for funds to send “trainedinvestigators” to track down the criminals. Although thedevastation wrought by the tsunami certainly renderedpeople vulnerable—mostly through economic disrup-tion—investigations by the United Nations have yet toidentify a single confirmed case of sex trafficking.
“Tightening Borders Will Stop Trafficking” Wrong. The trafficking issue is often used—somewould say hijacked—to support policies limitingimmigration. In fact, the recent global tightening ofasylum admissions has increased trafficking byforcing many desperate people to turn to smug-glers. In southeast Europe, a gtz study found thatmore stringent border controls have led to anincrease in trafficking, as people turned to third par-ties to smuggle them out of the country.
Similarly, other legal efforts to protect women fromtrafficking have had the perverse effect of making them
more vulnerable. For example, Burmese law precludeswomen under the age of 26 from visiting border areasunless accompanied by a husband or parent. AlthoughBurmese officials say the law demonstrates the govern-ment’s concern with the issue, many women believe itonly increases the cost of travel (particularly from bribe-seeking police) and decreases their safety by makingthem dependent on “facilitators” to move them acrossthe border. These women incur greater debt for their pas-sage, thus making them even more vulnerable toexploitation along the way.
Peddling people: Rural Brazilian women are
sometimes trafficked into the urban sex industry.
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28 Foreign Policy
[ Think Again ]
“Trafficking Is a Big Business Controlledby Organized Crime”
False. Trafficking is big business, but in manyregions of the world, such as Southeast Asia, traf-ficking involves mostly “disorganized crime”: indi-viduals or small groups linked on an ad hoc basis.There is no standard profile of traffickers. Theyrange from truck drivers and village “aunties” tolabor brokers and police officers. Traffickers are asvaried as the circumstances of their victims.Although some trafficking victims are literally kid-napped, most leave their homes voluntarily andbecome trafficked on their journey.
Trafficking “kingpins,” along the lines of thelate cocaine boss Pablo Escobar, are rare. Japanesemafia, or yakuza, do control many of the venues inJapan where trafficked girls end up, but they aremore likely to purchase people than transport them.Doing research in Thailand in 1997, I located the LukMoo (“Piglet”) network, which was responsible for
about 50 percent of the women and girls smuggledinto Thailand from Burma, China, and Laos towork in brothels. There were also other networks,such as the Kabuankarn Loy Fah (“Floating in theSky”) network that specialized in girls for restaurantsand karaoke bars. However, these networks havesince faded in importance, owing to changes in thestructure of the sex industry.
The worldwide trade in persons has been esti-mated by the United Nations Office on Drugs andCrime at $7 billion annually, and by the UnitedNations Children’s Fund at $10 billion—but, ofcourse, no one really knows. The ILO estimates thetotal illicit profits produced by trafficked forcedlaborers in one year to be just short of $32 billion.Although that is hardly an insignificant amount, it isa small business compared to the more than $320 bil-lion international trade in illicit drugs.
“Legalizing Prostitution Will Increase Trafficking”
It depends on how it’s done. The inter-section of the highly emotive issues of sex work andhuman trafficking generates a lot more heat than light.Some antitrafficking activists equate “prostitution”with trafficking and vice versa, despite evidence to thecontrary. The U.S. government leaves no doubt as towhere it stands: According to the State Depart-ment Web site, “Where prostitution is legalized ortolerated, there is a greater demand for human traf-ficking victims and nearly always an increase inthe number of women and children trafficked intocommercial sex slavery.” By this logic, the state ofNevada should be awash in foreign sex slaves, lead-ing one to wonder what steps the Justice Departmentis taking to free them. Oddly, the Netherlands,Australia, and Germany—all of whom have legal-ized prostitution—received top marks from theBush administration in the most recent Traffickingin Persons Report.
Moreover, some efforts to prohibit prostitutionhave increased sex workers’ risk to the dangers oftrafficking, though largely because lawmakers neg-lected to consult the people the laws were designedto protect. Sweden, for example, is much praised byantiprostitution activists for a 1998 law that aimedto protect sex workers by criminalizing their cus-tomers. But several independent studies, includingone conducted by the Swedish police, showed thatit exposed prostitutes to more dangerous clients andless safe-sex practices.
Others argue that giving sex workers a measureof legitimacy short of legalization would actuallydiscourage trafficking. In Thailand, many opposed tothe commercial sex industry support extending laborand social security laws to sex workers. Such a movecould hamper trafficking by opening establishmentsto inspection, allowing labor organization, and expos-ing underage prostitution.
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30 Foreign Policy
[ Think Again ]
“Sanctions Will Stop Trafficking”Wrong. The same U.S. law that made traffickinga federal crime also gave the United States the right topunish other states that do not crack down on humantrafficking. The State Department is required to senda report to congress each year ranking countries accord-ing to their success in combating trafficking and threat-ening sanctions for those with the worst records.
But international humanitarian agencies see thethreat of U.S. sanctions against foreign governmentsas largely counterproductive. Practically speaking,sanctions will likely be applied only against coun-tries already subject to sanctions, such as Burma orNorth Korea. Threatening moderately unresponsive
countries—such as China, Nigeria, or Saudi Arabia—would likely backfire, causing these countries tobecome less open to dialogue and limiting the flow ofinformation necessary for effective cooperation.
Although some countries certainly lack candorand create false fronts of activity, others actively seekUncle Sam’s seal of approval (and the resources thatoften follow) with genuine efforts to combat traffick-ing. Bangladesh, for example, received higher marksfrom the State Department this year by taking signif-icant steps against trafficking, despite the country’spoverty and limited resources. Incentives, instead ofsanctions, might encourage others to do the same.
“Trafficking Victims Should Be Sent Home”Not always. Sending victims home may sim-ply place them back in the same conditions thatendangered them in the first place, particularly in sit-uations of armed conflict or political unrest. If crim-inal gangs were involved in the trafficking, they willlikely threaten the safety of victims and their families.
To complicate matters, people may have no “home”to which they can return. Lack of legal status is a
major risk factor in trafficking, impeding and oftenprecluding victims’ return and reintegration. Thatproblem is particularly true for minorities, indige-nous peoples, and informal migrants who oftenhave no way to prove their nationality. In Thailand,for example, studies by the United Nations Edu-cational, Scientific and Cultural Organization havedemonstrated that a lack of proof of citizenship is
“Prosecution Will Stop Traffickers”Not likely. In the United States, an odd buteffective coalition of liberal Democrats, conserva-tive Republicans, committed feminists, and evangel-ical Christians pushed a law through congress in2000 that aimed to prosecute traffickers and protectvictims at home, while pressuring other countries totake action abroad. The Victims of Trafficking andViolence Protection Act recognized trafficking as afederal crime for the first time and provided a defi-nition of victims in need of protection and services.
Despite the political energies expended onhuman trafficking, there is little evidence that pros-ecutions have any significant impact on aggregatelevels of trafficking. For example, U.S. government
figures indicate the presence of some 200,000 traf-ficked victims in the United States. But even with a well-trained law enforcement and prosecutorial system, lessthan 500 people have been awarded T visas, the spe-cial visas given to victims in return for cooperation withfederal prosecutors. In fact, between 2001 and 2003,only 110 traffickers were prosecuted by the JusticeDepartment. Of these, 77 were convicted or pled guilty.
Given the nature of the trafficking business, so fewconvictions will have little effect. Convicting a localrecruiter or transporter has no significant impact on theoverall scale of trafficking. If the incentives are right,he or she is instantly replaced, and the flow of peopleis hardly interrupted.
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Internationale Politik (IP) – TransatlanticEdition is the quarterly English-languagemagazine of the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin.
IP features a selection of articles, essays andop-ed pieces on topical issues in foreignaffairs. It also presents European documents,book reviews, and a survey of articles fromEuropean foreign policy magazines.
IP is essential reading for everyone who is working in the field of politics and globaleconomic issues and is interested inEuropean views on international relations.
»I have long felt that the eminent journal of the German Council of Foreign Relations would be of great interest and importance to a wide readership. IP will begood news indeed to the international foreign policy community.« Henry A. Kissinger
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mines of the Amazon jungle. In the Ivory Coast, chil-dren are frequently sold into slavery to work on cocoaplantations. In China, girls are trafficked as brides inimpoverished rural areas, which are devoid of marriage-age females as a result of China’s one-child policy andfamilies’ preference for baby boys.
Does this mean that “destination” countries orcities are the beneficiaries of trafficking? Not neces-sarily. What one area or industry may gain in cheap,docile labor, others—especially those situated nearnational borders—often pay for in terms of security,health costs, and, sometimes, political unrest. Traf-ficking may answer a demand, but the cost is toosteep for this ever shrinking world to bear.
32 Foreign Policy
[ Think Again ]
David Feingold has written extensively on the illegal trade of humans. For a look at the complex rela-tionship between the trade in drugs and the trade in women, see “The Hell of Good Intentions: SomePreliminary Thoughts on Opium in the Political Ecology of the Trade in Girls and Women” in GrantEvans, et al., Where China Meets Southeast Asia: Social & Cultural Change in the Border Regions (NewYork: St. Martin’s Press, 2000). See also Trading Women, a feature documentary written and directedby Feingold and narrated by actress Angelina Jolie.
For databases and figures on the extent of human trafficking throughout the world, visit the Web sitesof the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization’s Trafficking Statistics Project, aswell as the sites of the International Labour Organization (ilo), the Child Trafficking Research Hub, andthe digital library of ChildTrafficking.com.
For a series of nuanced and controversial articles on the sex industry, read Lin Lean Lim, ed., The SexSector: The Economic and Social Bases of Prostitution in Southeast Asia (Geneva: ilo, 1998).
»For links to relevant Web sites, access to the FP Archive, and a comprehensive index of related Foreign Policy articles, go to www.ForeignPolicy.com.
[ Want to Know More? ]
the single greatest risk factor for a hill tribe girl orwoman to be trafficked or otherwise exploited. With-out citizenship, she cannot get a school diploma,register her marriage, own land, or work outsideher home district without special permission. Lackof legal status prevents a woman from findingalternate means of income, rendering her vulnera-ble to trafficking for sex work or the most abusiveforms of labor.
In developing countries, one’s lack of legal statususually begins at birth. Without a birth certificate, achild typically has no legal identity: That is why inter-national laws such as the Convention on the Rights ofthe Child stress that children have the right to be reg-istered at birth. Many activists have never consideredthat a fix as simple as promoting birth registration indeveloping countries is one of the most cost-effectivemeans to combat human trafficking.
“Trafficking Is Driven by Poverty”Too simple. Trafficking is often migrationgone terribly wrong. In addition to the push ofpoverty or political and social instability, traf-ficking is influenced by the expanded worldviews of the victims—the draw of bright lightsand big cities. The lure of urban centers helps toaccount for why, in parts of Africa, girls frommedium-sized towns are more vulnerable to traf-ficking than those in rural villages.
To fill the demand for ever cheaper labor, many vic-tims are trafficked within the same economic class oreven within a single country. In Brazil, for example, girlsmay be trafficked for sex work from rural to urbanareas, whereas males may be sold to work in the gold
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The oil shock beginsin October, when
OPEC countries cut off oil salesto nations that support Israel inthe Yom Kippur War. For many,
it was the first time thatdependency on oil hit home.
Computerengineer RayTomlinson
sends the firste-mail message.
Ted Turnerpurchases
Rice Broadcasting, thefirst step towardlaunching CNN and
creating the world’sfirst 24-hour newsnetwork.
34 Foreign Policy
On September 5,Arab terroristsstrike the
Munich Olympics—the firstArab terrorist attack to be
broadcast live on television.
1971 1972
BillGates
rewrites the BASICcomputer languageand foundsMicrosoft Corp.Today, his software runs 90 per-cent of the world’s computers.
John Paul IIassumes thepapacy and
becomes thefirst global
pope.
The U.S.Centers
for Disease Controlissue the first report on theglobal AIDS epidemic, whichquickly becomes the worstpandemic in human history.
Drug trader Pablo Escobarsolidifies the alliancethat later becomes the “Medellín Cartel,”a cocaine empire ofunprecedentedsophistication, wealth,and violence.
A Hezbollah suicidebomber kills 241Americans at theU.S. Marine Corpsbarracks in Beirut.
1983Thefamine
in Ethiopia givesbirth to celebrityforeign-policyactivism and thebattle over ThirdWorld debt relief.
The Soviet Union’sChernobyl nuclear power plantmelts down. Cancer and radia-tion exposure are still claimingvictims from the disaster.
After 27 years in prison,Nelson Mandela is freed
on February 11. Four years later, he iselected the first black president ofSouth Africa.
1984
LechWalesa
leads the first strikesin the Gdansk shipyards in Poland
and forms the inde-pendent trade union
Solidarity.
1980
1973
1981
19861990
Students campout in Beijing’sTiananmenSquare, but onJune 4, governmenthard-liners send troops to crush the protest.
The Chinese Communist Party has yet to apologize for the hundreds killed.
Five years beforeSamuel Huntington
predicts a clash of civilizations,Salman Rushdie’s TheSatanic Verses warns of theincompatibility of Islamand the West.
On June 12, 1987,President Ronald Reagan visits Berlin’s
Brandenburg Gate andchallenges Soviet
premier MikhailGorbachev to “teardown this wall.”
1988 1989
A.Q. Khanleaves the
Netherlands with cen-trifuge designs stolenfrom an enrichmentplant. He becomes thefather of Pakistan’snuclear program.
1976 Indiabecomes
the world’s sixth nuclearpower, with the suc-cessful test of adevice on May 18.The South Asiannuclear race heats up.
1974
1978After being purgedby Mao Zedong,
Deng Xiaoping is “rehabilitated” andreturns to power on July 22.
A year later, he launchesreforms that beginChina’s incredible economic ascent.
1977
1987
P R I M EN U M B E R S
1975
1970
Scientistsannounce
the discovery of the ozonehole over Antarctica. Itmight not be a “hole” inthe literal sense, but itquickly becomes the causecélèbre for environmentalists.
1985 HA
IRS
PR
AY
35 Years Later…
Soviettanks roll
into Afghanistan onChristmas Eve. Themujahideen, some ofwhom later form alQaeda, become hardened fighters.
1979
1982
September | October 2005 35
The Dow Jonesindustrial aver-
age closes above 10,000 forthe first time on March 29.Less than two months later,it surges above 11,000, cre-ating the biggest stock market bubble in American history.
Scientistscomplete
a rough draft of thehuman genome. The line between medical science andgenetic engineering isnow indefinitely gray.
Riyadh strips Osama bin Laden of
his Saudi Arabian citizenship. Heeventually seeks refuge inAfghanistan.
1994
Russians makeBoris Yeltsin thecountry’s firstdemocraticallyelected president
on June 12, ending fears—perhaps prematurely—that the
country would slide back intoauthoritarianism.
Paul Wolfowitz pensa memo laying out
the doctrine of preemption. Itlater forms the intellectual
basis of President GeorgeW. Bush’s nationalsecurity strategy.
1992
OnJuly 2,
Thailand floats itscurrency, ignitingan Asian
financial crisisthat ends twoyears later.
1991
OnJuly 5,
Dolly, the world’smost famous clonedanimal, is born, andwith her, a globaldebate over humancloning.
With its economy inhigh gear, China
becomes a net importer of oil.1993
1997
At 7:59 a.m. onSeptember 11,
American Airlines flight number11 takes off, with MohammedAtta and other terroristsaboard. Forty-six minutes later,the plane crashes into the northtower of the World Trade Center.
2001 2000 1999
Iraqis dance and cheer in
Baghdad when aU.S. Marine vehicle pullsdown a statue ofSaddam Husseinon April 9.
2003Ken Laybecomes
the poster boy of cor-porate greed. Execs atEnron, WorldCom,Tyco, and others areforced to do the“perp” walk.
2002 2004
Britishauthori-
ties arrest Gen.Augusto Pinochet ona Spanish warrant.Human rightsactivists hail it as a triumph.
1998
In an anniversary special, FP’s editors look back at
some of the persons, places, and things that mattered
most...and a few that never lived up to their billing.
1996
Yasir Arafatdies onNovember11, marking a historic turning point in the MiddleEast peace process.
Starbucks strikes adeal to open itsfirst store outside of
North America in Tokyo. Thecoffee chain soon becomes synonymous with globalization.
1995
The Netherlandsand France fail toratify the EU’s con-
stitution. The futureof Europe’s union iscast in doubt.
2005
The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treatywas supposed to keep the world’s nuclearclub limited to five members. Today, it’s atnine—and growing.
Euro Disney—proof that sometimes,if you build it, they won’t come.
Don’t worry, Star Wars (not the movie) will protect the United States from anuclear strike. Now, nearly $100 billionlater, it hasn’t hit anything yet!
Mohammad Khatami wantedto reform Iran. Too bad the clericsdidn’t agree.
When Japanese investors pur-chased Rockefeller Center, it was theultimate symbol of Japan’s emergenceas an economic powerhouse. Guessthey should’ve read the fine print.
The $15 billion Chunnel was supposedto make Britain part of Europe. Oops.
The Oslo Accords will finally bringpeace to the Middle East. You didn’t buythat, did you?
The Y2K bug will bring the world to its knees ... or be the best thing that everhappened to Indian computer programmers.
The U.S. Department of HomelandSecurity color-coded threatlevel system. Wait, orange is
good, right?
Michael Moore’sFahrenheit 9/11 killed inCannes, but apparently,
French film critics don’tvote in Ohio.
And 10 That Didn’t Make the Cut
TUR
NER
: BET
TMAN
N/C
OR
BIS
; MU
NIC
H O
LYM
PICS
: AP
WID
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; DEN
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OF
THE
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YELT
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WID
EWO
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FP/G
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GET
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; WO
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RO
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GET
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; HU
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38 Foreign Policy
GoneHereToday
TomorrowAlbert Einstein claimed he never thought of the future. “It comes
soon enough,” he said. Foreign Policy decided not to grant
16 leading thinkers that luxury. Instead, to mark our 35th
anniversary, we asked them to speculate on the ideas,
values, and institutions the world takes for granted
that may disappear in the next 35 years.
Their answers range from fields as diverse as
morals and religion to geopolitics and
technology. We may be happy to see
some of these “endangered
species” make an exit, but
others will be mourned.
All of them will
leave a mark.
September | October 2005 39
40 Foreign Policy
[ Here Today, Gone Tomorrow ]
During the next 35 years, the traditional view ofthe sanctity of human life will collapse under
pressure from scientific, technological, and demo-graphic developments. By 2040, it may be that onlya rump of hard-core, know-nothing religious fun-damentalists will defend the view that every humanlife, from conception to death, is sacrosanct.
In retrospect, 2005may be seen as the yearin which that positionbecame untenable.American conserva-tives have for severalyears been in the awk-ward position ofdefending a federalfunding ban on creat-ing new embryos forresearch that preventsU.S. scientists fromleading an area of bio-medical research thatcould revolutionize thetreatment of manycommon diseases.When they are honest,conservatives acknowl-edge that giving upsome medical advancesis simply the price tobe paid for doing theright thing.
This year, howev-er, that view becamemuch more uncomfortable. South Koreanresearchers showed that human stem cells can becloned by replacing the nucleus of an unfertilizedhuman egg with the nucleus of an ordinary cell.The South Korean breakthrough poses a starkchallenge to the conservative position. The possi-bility of cloning from the nucleus of an ordinarycell undermines the idea that embryos are pre-cious because they have the potential to become
human beings. Once it becomes clear that everyhuman cell contains the genetic information tocreate a new human being, the old arguments forpreserving “unique” human embryos fade away.
The year 2005 is also significant, at least in theUnited States, for ratcheting up the debate aboutthe care of patients in a persistent vegetative state.
The long legal battleover the removal ofTerri Schiavo’s feed-ing tube led PresidentGeorge W. Bush andthe U.S. Congress tointervene, both seek-ing to keep her alive.Yet the Americanpublic surprised manypundits by refusing tosupport this interven-tion, and the case pro-duced a surge in thenumber of peopledeclaring they did notwish to be kept alivein a situation such asSchiavo’s.
Technology willdrive this debate. Asthe sophistication oftechniques for produc-ing images of soft tis-sue increases, we willbe able to determinewith a high degree of
certainty that some living, breathing human beingshave suffered such severe brain damage that they willnever regain consciousness. In these cases, with thehope of recovery gone, families and loved ones willusually understand that even if the human organismis still alive, the person they loved has ceased toexist. Hence, a decision to remove the feeding tubewill be less controversial, for it will be a decision toend the life of a human body, but not of a person.
Peter Singer is professor at Princeton University and the University of Melbourne. His books include Practical Ethics (New
York: Cambridge University Press, 1979) and Rethinking Life and Death: The Collapse of Our Traditional Ethics (New York:
St. Martin’s Press, 1995).
The Sanctity of LifeBy Peter Singer
ILLU
STR
ATIO
NS
BY
NEN
AD
JAK
ESEV
IC F
OR
FP
September | October 2005 41
As we approach 2040, the Netherlands andBelgium will have had decades of experience withlegalized euthanasia, and other jurisdictions willalso have permitted either voluntary euthanasia orphysician-assisted suicide for varying lengths of time.This experience will puncture exaggerated fears thatthe legalization of these practices would be a first steptoward a new holocaust. By then, an increasing pro-portion of the population in developed countries willbe more than 75 years old and thinking about howtheir lives will end. The political pressure for allow-ing terminally or chronically ill patients to choosewhen to die will be irresistible.
When the traditional ethic of the sanctity of humanlife is proven indefensible at both the beginning and endof life, a new ethic will replace it. It will recognizethat the concept of a person is distinct from that ofa member of the species Homo sapiens, and that itis personhood, not species membership, that is mostsignificant in determining when it is wrong to end a life.We will understand that even if the life of a humanorganism begins at conception, the life of a person—that is, at a minimum, a being with some level of self-awareness—does not begin so early. And we willrespect the right of autonomous, competent people tochoose when to live and when to die.
Political PartiesBy Fernando Henrique Cardoso
We take it for granted that political parties arevital to modern political life. They have shaped
representative democracies since the late 19th cen-tury. Yet, their prospects are not bright in today’slarge democracies. In fact, these powerful politicalmachines may soon disappear.
The ground is already shifting underneath theirfeet. Political parties havebased their platforms on ideo-logical and class divides thatare becoming less important,especially in more advancedsocieties. Although class con-sciousness still matters, ethnic,religious, and sexual identitiesnow trump class, and these affiliations cut across tra-ditional political party lines. Today, the labels left andright have less and less meaning. Citizens have devel-oped multiple interests, diverse senses of belonging, andoverlapping identities. Some political parties havemanaged to adapt. Think of the British Labour Party,under Prime Minister Tony Blair, or Brazil’s Workers’Party, whose economic policy has very little to dowith its trade union origins.
Others won’t be so lucky. Political dislocation existsalongside a growing fatigue with traditional forms ofpolitical representation. People no longer trust thepolitical establishment. They want a greater say inpublic matters and usually prefer to voice theirinterests directly or through interest groups and
nongovernmental organizations. The debate ongenetically modified food in Europe, for example, canhardly be understood without reference to organi-zations allegedly representing consumer interests, suchas Greenpeace. And thanks to modern communication,citizens’ groups can bypass political parties in shap-ing public policy. Political parties no longer have a
lock on legitimacy. Voting, of course, remains
essential. But voting doesn’trequire political parties, either.Indeed, the more important theissue, the more likely govern-ments in places as different asSwitzerland, Bolivia, and Cali-
fornia will seek legitimacy directly in referenda ratherthan through parliaments or legislatures, the tradi-tional stomping grounds of parties. The rejection of theEuropean constitution in France and the Netherlandsdemonstrates that major political parties—all of whichsupported the constitution—often have little leverageonce an issue is posed to the people.
In this environment, political parties are at a crit-ical junction: They must transform themselves orbecome irrelevant. To survive, they must design flex-ible agendas not dependent on traditional class andideological divides. Somehow, they’ll have to recap-ture the public imagination. And they’ll have to acceptthat others deserve a seat at the political table. Oth-erwise, the party may be over.
Fernando Henrique Cardoso was president of Brazil from 1995 to 2003.
Parties have little
leverage once an issue goes
directly to the people.
42 Foreign Policy
[ Here Today, Gone Tomorrow ]
Christopher Hitchens is a columnist for Vanity Fair and a visiting professor of liberal studies at the New School University.
His most recent book is Thomas Jefferson: Author of America (New York: HarperCollins, 2005).
The EuroBy Christopher Hitchens
So,” said Jörg Haider with a slightly unpleasantsmile, “you like the new Esperanto money?” I
was interviewing the leader of Austria’s Freedom Partyin early 2003, at a time when he was also applaudingSaddam Hussein and supporting the suicide bombersin Israel and Palestine. His sarcastic comment aboutthe newly introduced euro notes made me want tobelieve in the new currency even more. On a longreporting trip to Europe, I had been rather affected tofind myself using the same money in Paris one eveningas I had used to pay aBerlin taxi driver inthe morning. I remem-bered how the Franco-German coal and steelagreement that was thenucleus of the Europeanproject was designedto make war withincontinental Europe“materially impossi-ble.” On New Year’sDay 2002, it suddenlybecame possible toemploy the same cur-rency in Finland as inGreece (which surren-dered the world’s oldestsurviving monetarydenomination in theform of the drachma).Why should one listento any sneering about that, especially from a mannot fully reconciled to the outcome of the SecondWorld War?
My internationalist prejudice is not somethingfor which I feel like apologizing, even now. Iremember how I twisted with embarrassmentwhen Norman Lamont, British Prime MinisterJohn Major’s chancellor of the exchequer, returnedfrom Brussels with the grand news that he had wonthe right to keep the visage of Her Majesty theQueen on any British version of the euro bill. If theGermans could make the remarkable sacrifice of
the deutsche mark, their greatest postwar achievement,then why quibble over the insignia of the House ofWindsor? I looked forward to showing my children theold British currency, just as I had kept a sentimentalbox of the ancient British coinage that had been mak-ing holes in our pockets before decimalization.
And now I can’t quite believe that my children,or their children, will be using the “Esperantomoney” after all. As suddenly as it began, the wholeidea of a common currency seems to have receded.
The likelihood of new countries adopting the eurohas become remote ever since the French and theDutch repudiated the proposed European consti-tution earlier this year. But more than that, thereis a pronounced nostalgia for the old money inGermany and in other nations that have alreadyadopted the euro. If a referendum is involved, Icannot see the British electorate voting to abandonthe pound, with or without the queen’s head, inany circumstances. The Scandinavian peripherynow seems less, rather than more, persuadable. Asfor the new and aspiring members, such as Poland
Shintaro Ishihara is governor of Tokyo.
September | October 2005 43
and Turkey, one winces to think of the disillu-sionment that will set in now that so many bravepromises will be postponed.
This economic setback is determined in part bypolitical and bureaucratic failures large and small.Europe’s passport, to take a tiny example, couldhave been worth flourishing at a frontier post. Buta series of dull compromises reduced it to a tawdrypaperback, bound in some off-color maroon: tooobviously a document designed by a committee.Then I should like to know at what dire meeting itwas decided that the first seven words of the pre-amble to the European Constitution would read:“His Majesty The King of the Belgians…” UntilAlbania or Belarus joins, which seems a long way off,Belgium and its monarch come first in the Europeanalphabet. But this is not how things were done in
Philadelphia, and the emphasis is not at alldesigned to produce a more perfect union.
I take absolutely no pleasure in saying this. Idid not at all care for the alliance of parties, fromxenophobic to post-Stalinist, that combined todefeat the constitution and that now yearn for theeuro to be undone. But I can’t rid myself of thememory of that smirk on Haider’s face. If theeuro is going to be only one currency amongmany, then it will have lost its essential point.Esperanto aimed to replace the Babel of compet-ing languages with one universal tongue, and itsucceeded only in adding an extra tongue that wasa mere hybrid. A euro that is legal tender only insome parts of Europe will not only emphasizethe continent’s failure to eliminate differences: Itwill itself become one of those differences.
In today’s accelerating world, we are exposed tochanges that might have taken two or three hun-
dred years to unfold during the Middle Ages. Time andspace have contracted, and nothing now happens inisolation. Japan is having difficulty adjusting to thisnew world. It clings to a hopelessly idealistic and his-torically illegitimate consti-tution handed down byU.S. occupation forces near-ly 60 years ago to blockJapan’s reemergence as amilitary power. Japan nowentrusts its survival to theUnited States, has forsak-en independent thinking,and has become spineless.
Some people have contended that Japan canprosper as a nation of peaceful merchants. Thatmight have been possible as long as the UnitedStates was a reliable guardian. Today, with thelimited capability of the United States as a super-power apparent, this dependence is extremelyrisky for Japan. It is ironic that the Japanese econ-omy—especially in the financial sector—is sus-ceptible to plunder by the very Americans whowere originally supposed to be our patrons.
The Japanese used to have the spirit and back-bone of the samurai, the same warriors who wereapplauded by Walt Whitman when they visited theUnited States in the 1860s. When will we recover ournational virtue, described so well by Ruth Benedict inThe Chrysanthemum and the Sword?
Much will depend onhow East Asia evolves,especially militarily, in thenext decade. One criticalfactor will be whereChina—with its growingmilitary and stubbornCommunist Party—castsits gaze and whether itsambitions will be pursued
with the same kind of hegemonic intentions employedin Tibet. It will also depend on whether China, whichhas repeatedly asserted claims on Japanese territory,persists in its provocations. I wonder how the UnitedStates will interpret its security treaty with Japan if ournation decides to confront China, perhaps even mili-tarily, in the dispute over the Senkaku Islands, a partof Okinawa with potentially valuable seabed resources.There are many other uncertainties. The overheatedChinese economy is on the verge of collapse. What
Japanese PassivityBy Shintaro Ishihara
Regional tensions may finally
stimulate Japan to emerge from its
futile passivity. Japan, not China, is
the region’s sleeping lion.
44 Foreign Policy
[ Here Today, Gone Tomorrow ]
MonogamyBy Jacques Attali
Jacques Attali is a writer, president of PlaNet Finance, an international nonprofit organization, and a contributing editor to
Foreign Policy.
Two hundred years ago, few people foresawlegalized divorce or open homosexuality—
let alone gay marriage. Abstract art and jazz wereunimaginable. Aesthetics, morals, and family rela-tionships, it seems, are the bane of the futurologist.We constantly speculate about the future balanceof power, looming conflicts, and emerging tech-nologies. Yet somehow, we imagine that moralsand aesthetics are immutable. So we forget to askhow conceptions of good and evil, acceptable and
unacceptable, beauty and ugliness willchange. And they will.
Monogamy, which is really no more thana useful social convention, will not survive. Ithas rarely been honored in practice; soon, it willvanish even as an ideal. I do not believe thatsociety will return to polygamy. Instead, we willmove toward a radically new conception ofsentimental and love relationships. Nothingforbids a person from being in love with afew people at the same time. Society rejectsthis possibility today primarily for econom-ic reasons—to maintain an orderly trans-mission of property—and becausemonogamy protects women against maleexcesses.
But these rationales are dissolving inthe face of powerful new trends. The insa-tiable demand for transparency, fueled bydemocracy and the free market, is placing
the private lives of public men and women undergreater scrutiny. The reality of multiple lives and part-ners will become more apparent, and society’shypocrisy will be revealed. The continued rise ofindividual freedom will permanently change sexualmores, as it has most other realms. Likewise, jumpsin life expectancy will make it nearly impossible tospend one’s entire life with one person and to loveonly that one person. Meanwhile, technologicaladvances will further weaken the links between
form will the frustration of the Chinese people take andhow will it erupt? Economic collapse in China maytrigger a Soviet-style disintegration that will lead to thedissolution of the Communist regime.
Nor is China the only concern. North Korea, witha political regime that can only be described as insane,is busily developing a nuclear capability and bran-dishing it as a bargaining chip. Let us not forget thatthis is a terrorist nation that has abducted more than100 Japanese citizens and likely murdered most ofthem. Pyongyang has warned that it would hit Japanwith missiles if Tokyo decides to impose economic
sanctions, Japan’s sole form of leverage. Leaving asideuncertainty about the accuracy of North Korean mis-siles, the question of how Japan and the UnitedStates would respond remains critical.
These regional tensions and uncertainties mayfinally stimulate Japan to emerge from its futile pas-sivity and become a strong nation willing to acceptsacrifices. When Japan again exhibits the backbonethat helped it become the first non-white nation tomodernize successfully, the balance of power in thisregion will change dramatically. Japan, not China, isthe region’s sleeping lion.
September | October 2005 45
sexuality, love, and reproduction, which are very dif-ferent concepts. Widely available birth control hasalready stripped away an important obstacle tohaving multiple partners.
Just as most societies now accept successive loverelationships, soon we will acknowledge the legalityand acceptability of simultaneous love. For men andwomen, it will be possible to have partnerships withvarious people, who will, in turn, have various part-ners themselves. At long last, we will recognize that itis human to love different people at the same time.
The demise of monogamy will not comewithout a struggle. All the churches will seek to
forbid it, especially for women. For a while,they will hold the line. But individual freedom,once again, will triumph. The revolution willbegin in Europe, America will follow, and therest of the world will eventually come around.The implications will be enormous. Relation-ships with children will be radically different,financial arrangements will be disrupted, and howand where we live will change. To be sure, it willtake decades for the change to be complete and yet,if we look around, it is already here. Beneath ourhypocrisies—in movies, novels, and music—theshape of our future is visible.
Religious HierarchyBy Harvey Cox
It is easy to forget that, for centuries, most peoplewere unaware that they had any choice in reli-
gious matters. They were surrounded by people likethemselves, and only a few ever met believers fromother traditions. No more. A mosque is being builtaround the corner and, look, the Dalai Lama is on tvagain. Thousands of religious and spiritual chat roomsand blogs have popped up. Thisis the age not only of the “cafe-teria Catholic,” but also of thecafeteria Buddhist, Baptist, andMormon. More and more peo-ple view the world’s religious traditions as a buffet from whichthey can pick and choose.
In this environment, religioushierarchy is crumbling fast. Thenotions of consumer choice and local control havestormed the religious realm, and decentralization offaith is now the order of the day. Religious leaders whoonce could command, instruct, and expel now mustcajole, persuade, and compete.
Protestant Christians, of course, have always beensuspicious of hierarchy as a matter of principle. Inpractice, however, they have often let church bureau-crats run their affairs. Today, local Methodist orLutheran congregations often ignore the dicta ofchurch leaders, and denominational “brand loyalty”is a thing of the past. The 77 million-member
Anglican Communion recently faced a schism over theordination of a gay bishop. In response, the Arch-bishop of Canterbury could only try to encourage adialogue between the feuding parties; a resolution ofthe crisis from on high was out of the question.
Christians are not the only ones straining againstthe religious hierarchies of old. In the early 1990s, the
entire organized lay wing ofNicheren, the largest Buddhistorganization in Japan, effec-tively seceded, leaving behind arump priesthood withoutparishioners. Although a casu-al observer might assume thathierarchy is alive and well inIslam, the opposite is closer tothe truth. Muslims have never
developed a clear hierarchy, and they have battled overquestions of succession and doctrine ever since thedeath of the prophet. Even the limited hierarchy thatdid exist has broken down. The Taliban’s leader,Mullah Muhammad Omar, became Afghanistan’sspiritual leader—and even donned the cloak of theprophet—without the consent of other Islamicreligious figures. Osama bin Laden presumes toissue religious rulings without formal training. Indeed,the present crisis in the Islamic world may stem fromtoo many loud and conflicting voices, all claimingreligious authority.
Harvey Cox is professor at Harvard Divinity School and author of Fire from Heaven: The Rise of Pentecostal Spiritualityand the Reshaping of Religion in the Twenty-First Century (Reading: Addison-Wesley, 1995).
The notions of
consumer choice and local
control have stormed the
religious realm.
46 Foreign Policy
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Even the Catholic Church—the lodestar of reli-gious hierarchy—is vulnerable to decentralization.Pope Benedict xvi knows that the church’s traditionalflowchart is in trouble, and he intends to salvage it. Hecertainly has a long track record, including his cam-paign against the Latin American “liberation the-ologians” who tried to enlist the resources of thechurch for radical social change. He was less con-cerned with their alleged Marxist leanings than withthe thousands of lively Catholic “base communities”they were organizing all over the continent, groupsthat did not fit into the church’s chain of command.Now, American Catholics are also demanding moresay, staging vigils in churches they refuse to allow tobe closed, withholding contributions, and taking dio-ceses to court. Voices are bubbling up from the bot-tom and seeping in from the edges, and hierarchy isshowing signs of decay.
The guardians of religious hierarchy understandthe danger that lurks inside this revolution. Religionswithout unassailable leaders and with hungry com-petitors may find themselves marketing as much as
ministering. Meeting buyer preferences may be essen-tial in business, but it can eviscerate the integrity ofthe religious “product.” Imagine what the Ten Com-mandments or the Sermon on the Mount mighthave been if Moses or Christ had poll-tested them.And, yet, just such carefully tailored messages maybe the key to the spectacular success of the so-calledmegachurches, which rarely make a move withoutconsulting market research.
Grappling with choice contributes to a religiousmaturity unavailable to someone who simply acceptswhat is passed down from above, and for that rea-son it could actually strengthen the capacity of thereligious to cope with the challenge of secularism. Ofcourse, the lack of recognized authority could alsolead to fragmentation. But even that has an upside.Pentecostalism, for example, has no hierarchy, but itsdivisions and rivalries have generated an entrepre-neurial energy that has made it the fastest growingChristian movement in the world. They have proventhat sometimes religion without hierarchy can endure,and even thrive.
Minxin Pei is senior associate and director of the China Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
The Chinese Communist PartyBy Minxin Pei
It may appear the Chinese Communist Party hasnever had it so good. Inside China, the party faces
no serious challenges to its authority. Internationally,talk of China collapsing is out, and China rising is in.We are regularly told that globetrotting Chinesediplomats are running circlesaround their American andEuropean counterparts, cuttingdeals and burnishing Beijing’simage around the world. Butinexorable forces are arrayedagainst the long-term survivalof the Communist Party inChina, and its chances of stay-ing in power for another 35years are slim.
Ultimately, the party may fall victim to its owneconomic miracle. The party’s unwillingness to estab-lish the rule of law and refrain from economic med-dling may yet slow the remarkable growth of the lastdecade. But for the sake of argument, let’s assume
China can continue to grow. Another 35 years ofsolid economic growth (even at a much slower 5percent a year) would mean an annual per capitaincome of about $7,000. Professionals, privateproperty owners, and hard-working capitalists will
number in the hundreds ofmillions. If history is anyguide, it will be next to impos-sible for an authoritarianregime to retain power in sucha modern society, let alone oneas large and diverse as China’s.
If economic success doesnot end one-party rule inChina, corruption probably
will. Governments free from meaningful restraintson their power invariably grow corrupt and rapa-cious. That is true in China today. Party disciplinehas broken down. Selling government appointmentsfor personal profit has become widespread. Thecumulative effects of pervasive official corruption can
It is telling that many
senior officials, including a
governor, regularly consult
fortune tellers.
September | October 2005 47
transform a developingautocracy into a predatoryregime. The experience ofGeneral Suharto’s Indonesiasuggests that predatory autoc-racies have trouble turninghigh rates of economicgrowth into political stability.There, even 30 years ofimpressive growth wasn’tenough to save the regime.
Autocracies that areexpanding economically con-tain the seeds of their owndestruction, mainly becausethey lack the institutionalcapacity and legitimacy toweather economic shocks. Inthis postideological era, theparty’s sole justification forits political monopoly is itscapacity to improve the livesof the Chinese people. The party still pays lipservice to an amalgam of Marxism-Leninism andChinese nationalism, but with little credibility. Aruling party without core values lacks mass appealand the capacity to generate it. Even its own elitesare growing increasingly disillusioned, cynical,and fearful about the party’s future. It is telling thatmany senior officials, including one provincialgovernor, regularly consult fortune tellers.
A party capable of reinvention and regenera-tion might be able to skirt these looming dangers. Butthe Chinese Communist Party is growing arthritic.By 2040, it will have been in existence for 119 yearsand in power for 91. Today, the world has no sep-tuagenarian one-party regimes—and for good reason.
Of course, in democratic societies, politicalparties undergo major transformations all thetime. But one-party regimes have no intrinsic incen-tive to reengineer themselves and little capacity tocorrect course. Accumulated strains and ailments areleft untreated until they precipitate larger crises.The Chinese Communist Party experienced thiscycle once before, and the Cultural Revolutionnearly destroyed the party. It recovered from that self-inflicted disaster only by thoroughly reinventing itselfand adopting a distinctly anticommunist policyof market reforms.
Will the party be as lucky next time? If the for-tune tellers are being honest, they’ll tell China’sleaders the future isn’t bright.
Auto EmissionsBy John Browne
Those skeptical of the data on global climatechange point out that there is a lot we still
don’t know. But there are some things we doknow: By 2020, there will be another 700 millionadditional vehicles on the roads—many in China.Ensuring that these new vehicles incorporate the
latest clean technology will be one of the most crit-ical public policy challenges of our time. Theabsence of total certainty or consensus on thedangers of climate change must not impede con-structive action. Fortunately, scientists and engi-neers haven’t let it. And because of the advances
Lord John Browne is the group chief executive of British Petroleum.
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they are making, I am convinced that one oftoday’s most pressing environmental problemswill soon disappear.
By 2040, harmful vehicle emissions will be athing of the past. Those who can remember thedark fumes pumped out of cars and trucks know thatwe’ve already come a long way. Lead, sulphur, andbenzene have been progressively reduced or removedfrom new vehicles. In the United States, lead emis-sions have dropped by about 95 percent. If only athird of the cars in 2050 run at 60 miles per gallonrather than 30 miles per gallon, carbon dioxideemissions will decline by 1 million tons a year.
But the progress won’t stop there. New refinerytechnology is producing ever cleaner fuels. The qual-ity of lubricants—which allow engines to operate
efficiently—is improving. And engines themselves,whether hybrids or upgraded internal combustionmachines, are becoming cleaner fuel burners. Thecombination of these trends will have a tremendousimpact as the world’s capital stock of vehicles turnsover during the next 35 years.
Vehicles, of course, are only one source ofpotentially harmful emissions. The static uses ofenergy—factories, schools, and homes—accountfor the bulk. There, the challenge is to transformboth the products that generate energy and thegoods produced so that the world’s increased ener-gy needs can be met without savaging the envi-ronment. It is too early to predict that victory,but work is in progress. And I wouldn’t bet againsthuman ingenuity.
Lawrence Lessig is professor of law at Stanford University.
The Public DomainBy Lawrence Lessig
W ithin every culture, there is a publicdomain—a lawyer-free zone, unregulat-
ed by the rules of copyright. Throughout his-tory, this part of culture has been vital to thespread and development of creative work. It isthe part that gets cultivated without the per-mission of anyone else.
This public domain has always lived along-side a private domain—the part of culture thatis owned and regulated, that part whose userequires the permission of someone else.Through the market incentives it creates, theprivate domain has also produced extraordi-nary cultural wealth throughout the world. It isessential to how cultures develop.
Traditionally, the law has kept these twodomains in balance. The term of copyright was rel-atively short, and its reach was essentially com-mercial. But a fundamental change in the scopeand nature of copyright law, inspired by a radicalchange in technology, now threatens this balance.Digital technologies have made it easy—indeed,too easy—for creative work in the private domainto spread without permission. Piracy is rampant onthe highways of digital technology. In response,code writers (both legislators and technologists)have created an unprecedented array of weapons
(both legal and technical) to wage war on the piratesand restore control to the owners of culture. Yet thecontrol these weapons will produce is far greater thananything we have seen in our past.
Doctors’ OfficesBy Craig Mundie
September | October 2005 49
Getting sick today is a chore. Finding out what’swrong means scheduling an appointment,
driving to the doctor’s office, filling out forms,waiting, and answering questions while beingswabbed and poked. Then you wait for test results,pick up your prescriptions, and schedule more appoint-ments with specialists. The nuisance of seeking care isquickly becoming a crisisaround the world, as declin-ing birth rates and agingpopulations put a crushingburden on national health-care systems.
Soon, governments,insurers, and taxpayersaround the world will beforced to confront a com-plicated and inefficient system that focuses toomuch on managing disease when it arrives andnot enough on preventing people from getting sick.A critical step in reforming the system will be mak-ing visits to a doctor’s office a last resort rather thana first step.
This shift will require all kinds of structural,legal, and financial changes, but innovations in com-puting, communications, biology, nanotechnology,and robotics will ease the way. The Web is alreadyallowing patients quick access to quality health infor-mation once dispensed only by white coats. Soon,patients will access customized health plans online.
Diagnosing and treating many everyday conditionswill be as simple as depositing a drop of blood in amachine and, within moments, having the comput-er tell you what you have and how to get rid of it.
Doctors won’t be obsolete, of course. In fact,general practitioners will be more important thanever, but they’ll spend more time assessing options for
preventive action and lesstime shepherding patientsthrough their offices. Doc-tors will increasingly relyon highly personalizedtreatments—such as newdrugs targeted specificallyto personal needs, or evennanomachines that attackbad cholesterol or eliminate
tumors too small to detect today. Specialists, in turn,will be free to focus on highly difficult procedures andpush the frontiers of healthcare.
Many of these technologies will reach the devel-oped world first, but the rest of the world will ben-efit in turn. And it will behoove the rich countries tohasten the spread of its innovations. In an era whennew diseases can circle the globe in hours, it’s ineveryone’s interest to stop the next pandemic beforeit happens. The end result will be a technologicallydriven shift toward preventive medicine that willhelp keep soaring health costs in check and make vis-its to the doctor more rare—and less painful.
Craig Mundie is senior vice president and chief technical officer for advanced strategies and policy at Microsoft.
So, for example, the United States has radicallyincreased the reach of copyright regulation. Andthrough the World Intellectual Property Organiza-tion, wealthy countries everywhere are pushing toimpose even tighter restrictions on the rest of theworld. These legal measures will soon be supple-mented by extraordinary technologies that willsecure to the owners of culture almost perfect con-trol over how “their property” is used. Any balancebetween public and private will thus be lost. The pri-vate domain will swallow the public domain. Andthe cultivation of culture and creativity will then bedictated by those who claim to own it.
There is no doubt that piracy is an importantproblem—it’s just not the only problem. Our leadershave lost this sense of balance. They have been seducedby a vision of culture that measures beauty in ticketsales. They are apparently untroubled by a worldwhere cultivating the past requires the permission ofthe past. They can’t imagine that freedom could pro-duce anything worthwhile at all.
The danger remains invisible to most, hidden bythe zeal of a war on piracy. And that is how the pub-lic domain may die a quiet death, extinguished byself-righteous extremism, long before many even rec-ognize it is gone.
Doctors will spend more
time assessing options for
preventive action and less time
shepherding patients.
50 Foreign Policy
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Felipe Fernández-Armesto is professor of history at Tufts University and a professorial fellow at Queen Mary, University of
London. He is author of Ideas That Changed the World (New York: DK Pub., 2003).
The King of EnglandBy Felipe Fernández-Armesto
In 1948, the embattled Egyptian King Farouksaid that soon only five ruling royals would be
left: the kings of hearts, clubs, diamonds, and spades,and the English monarch. It now looks as if he wasoff by one. The monarchy will not, however, drownin a wave of republican sentiment; nor will it be dis-carded because it fails. The crisis, when it comes, willbe provoked by the unwillingness of the royal fam-ily to carry on with the job.
In theory, royals should symbolize collectivenational purpose—if and where such a thing exists—and embodycommon val-ues. That wasthe role forwhich QueenElizabeth ii’sbrood seemedperfectly suit-ed when theywere young.C o u r t i e r s ,counsellors,and the mediacast them asan ideal ofbourgeois gen-tility. Then his-tory took over.The royalsturned out tobe all too rep-resentative oftheir times—more l ike asitcom household or a soap-opera dynasty than amodel family: dim or daft, undisciplined, self-indulgent, driven by petty enmities, and animatedonly by infidelities.
Their pomp and glitter now look tawdry andoverpriced—a gold tooth in a mouth full of decay.Charles, the prince of Wales, who has done so muchfor society and the environment, could have har-nessed the goodwill of his people. Instead, he has
turned his tragedy into farce. The latest of his bum-bles was to book a shabby civil wedding, which canbe represented as legal only by appealing, ludicrously,to the European Convention on Human Rights. Wehave thus discovered the world’s smallest and rich-est disadvantaged minority.
In short, the royals have done an abominable job ina role they chose for themselves. By any normal crite-ria of employment, they ought to be sacked. Lamely andrisibly, however, they can still do the day job—which isto stay mum, sign legislation, and entertain top for-
eigners. TheBritish, on thewhole, are will-ing to let themcontinue, notout of lingeringaffection but forwant of a viablealternative.
Soon, how-ever, the royalsthemselves willlose the will togo on. Eventhe prince ofWales, whoyearns to beking, no longerlikes the coun-try he is calledto represent.From his pointof view, theBritish have
abandoned all their distinctive traditions—sur-rendering them to new, classless, politically correctvalues. Celebrity has replaced noblesse oblige asthe nearest surviving thing to an aristocratic ideal.At the millennium celebrations, the queen had tolink arms with the prime minister and mouth auldlang syne like a barmaid. If you’re a royal, whatis the point of carrying on in such a distressinglyunfamiliar world?
September | October 2005 51
The next generation—the duo of Wills andHarry—has no appetite for the job. Both take aftertheir mother. The shallow, meretricious egocentrismof Diana’s life and times represents the only futurethese postmodern princes can hope to enjoy. Dera-cination, anomie, and future-shock separate themfrom the traditions to which they are supposedlyheirs. Neither of them is very clever—indeed, evenwith every advantage possible, Harry proved inca-pable of getting close to an average performance innational entrance exams.
Yet both princes surely have enough sense torealize that the job of king is now utterly unap-pealing. After what their parents have sufferedfrom the public and the press—the obloquy, thederision, the intolerable intrusions into their pri-vate lives—they can only face their fate with dis-may. As Charles grows old, the boys will long forthe prospect of being pensioned playboys ratherthan dutiful royals. The problem for the monarchywill be of a kind well known in other kinds of the-ater: how to get bums on thrones.
The War on DrugsBy Peter Schwartz
The war on drugs will soon be over. It won’t havebeen won or lost, and we certainly won’t have
wiped out illicit drug use. People will still pursue theirpersonal pleasures and uncontrollable addictions.No, the war on drugs will end because drugs as weknow them today will be gone.
The model drug of the future is already here inthe form of crystal methamphetamine, a drug thatis sweeping the UnitedStates and making inroadsabroad. It’s cheap andeasy to make—little morethan Sudafed doctored upwith plant fertilizer. Onehundred percent of theprofit goes to the manu-facturer; no intermediaryor army of couriers isrequired. Made of locally acquired materials in thegarage or basement, the drug’s production is near-ly impossible to stop. Only the stupid and incom-petent get caught.
Thirty-five years from now, the illicit profes-sionals who remain in the business will be customdrug designers catering to the wealthy. Their con-coctions will be fine-tuned to one’s own body andneural chemistry. In time, the most destructive sideeffects will be designed out, perhaps even addictionitself. These custom drug dealers will design theperfect chemical experience for those who can affordit. The combination of cocaine with skiing, sex, orother intense physical activities is common today;
likewise for pot and making music. In the future,there will be custom drugs for meals, golf, garden-ing, and more. Like crystal meth today, some drugswill reach the point of home manufacturing. Andthey will all be designed to make their use invisibleto others—no red eyes, nervous tics, or lethargy.
The shift to custom drugs that are locally pro-duced will have some positive effects. Opium fields in
Afghanistan and coca plan-tations in the mountains ofColombia will wither, creat-ing new economic realitiesfor those countries. The lossof cash crops will sting atfirst, but farmers and tradersproducing legal goods thatare taxable and transparentwill ultimately facilitate the
building of healthy societies. Cocaine couriers won’tsweat their way through customs, and human muleswill stop smuggling bags of heroin in their guts. Druglords will not need to launder billions of dollars or payfor private armies, and street corners won’t have drugdealers waging gunfights for turf. The prison popula-tion in Western countries, and particularly the UnitedStates, will shrink.
But as the violence of the drug trade dies downand as drugs become safer, drug use will blossom.The boundary between legal performance enhance-ment (Viagra) and the illegal drugs of pleasure andcreativity will blur. The political and social pressureagainst drug use will remain, but it will increasingly
Peter Schwartz is chairman of the Global Business Network, a Monitor Group Company.
We may look back wistfully
at a time when there were
smugglers to be chased and
coca fields to be burned.
52 Foreign Policy
[ Here Today, Gone Tomorrow ]
resemble the campaigns against performance-enhancing drugs for athletes. Widespread use willspark debates about fairness and authenticity: Is adrug-using musician better than one who composesand performs naturally? Is it fair for only the wealthyto have the richest sexual or culinary experiences?
Just as the legal system is struggling with newrealities of intellectual property in a digital age, it will
struggle to control innovation in the chemistry ofpleasure. We may even wistfully look back at atime when there were smugglers to be chased andcoca fields to be burned. The bad guys were brutes,largely foreign or inner-city hoodlums. The newdrug sellers will be chemists, most likely caught ontax-evasion charges. Users, too, will be harder tohate. They’ll look a lot like you and me.
Lee Kuan Yew was prime minister of Singapore from 1959 to 1990 and is now minister mentor.
Laissez-Faire ProcreationBy Lee Kuan Yew
Demography, not democracy,will be the most critical factor
for security and growth in the 21stcentury. Booming populations area drag on developing countries,and low fertility rates are sappinggrowth in developed societies. Thepoor are making themselves poor-er through rising birth rates, andthe rich will have less dynamic soci-eties because they are not replacingthemselves fast enough. Popula-tion growth is outstripping thecapacity of governments to deliverbasic services in the Middle East and Africa, pro-ducing breeding grounds for extremist and terroristmovements. Rich societies will, in turn, see migrationfrom these places as a threat—and they will resist.
Sex, marriage, and procreation may not bebeyond the reach of government influence for muchlonger. Governments facing population explosionsand implosions will soon have no choice but tograpple with matters generally considered private.
Efforts to cajole and educate populations intomore positive procreation trends have had only lim-ited success. European states, for example, havemade Herculean efforts to reverse declining fertilityrates, with disappointing results. Singapore’s fertili-ty rate is a dangerously low 1.25 percent. Pro-natalpolicies have increased fertility only slightly. Withoutimmigration that often exceeds the natural yearlygrowth, Singapore’s economic growth rate wouldbe as sluggish as Japan’s.
When public campaigns have partially succeeded, asin some Scandinavian countries and in France, they
have forced society to reconceptualize the roles ofmarriage and the family, with the father taking on moreof the mother’s role, a transformation Asian familiesfind difficult to accomplish. Even then, these countriesare unlikely to get fertility rates to exceed replace-ment levels. Barring a dramatic change of course, theywill need immigrants to keep their economies vibrant.
Countries that most welcome migrants have aneconomic advantage, but open immigration policiesalso carry risks. New waves of migrants will be eth-nically different, less educated, and sometimesunskilled. They will often be among the very religiousin otherwise secular societies. Many will move ille-gally. The greater ethnic diversity they create cancause social tensions and have profound effects oncultural identity and social cohesion.
Japan is perhaps the best example of a state thatboth fears and needs immigration. It has a reproduc-tion rate of less than 1.3 percent and a rapidly agingpopulation, yet it has shown a limited willingness towelcome immigrants. The United States, on the other
September | October 2005 53
hand, has traditionally been the most welcoming ofimmigrants. Although it has near replacement fertili-ty levels, 80 percent of its projected population growthof 120 million in the next 50 years will come fromimmigration. Will it remain as open politically and cul-turally as Hispanics change the country’s character andculture? This dilemma is even starker for Europe, wheremost migrants are Muslims from North Africa and theMiddle East. They are not likely to be assimilated into
a largely Christian secular society, and their social iso-lation could impede the struggle against Islamic terror.
It will gradually dawn on governments that immi-gration alone cannot solve their demographic troublesand that much more active government involvementin encouraging or discouraging procreation may benecessary. Those governments most able to think imag-inatively about these problems will save their societiesand their neighbors much pain and suffering.
PolioBy Julie L. Gerberding
Few causes merit greater celebration than the endof a disease. But despite the dedicated efforts of
the last century, the world has only held such a cele-bration once—when smallpox was eradicated in 1977.Current generations who know smallpox only as a fad-ing scar on the upper arm forget the impact that thisglobal killer had over centuries. Its eradication in theUnited States alone has saved countless lives and atleast $17 billion.
Today, the world is poised to add another diseaseto the list of those that will no longer threatenhumans: polio. As difficultas smallpox eradicationwas, polio has presentedan even tougher challenge.Some polio infections alertdoctors with tell-tale paral-ysis, but for each of thesecases, about 200 peoplemay have only minor flu-like symptoms and cansilently transmit the dis-ease for weeks. As a logis-tical challenge, one observer has written, the differ-ence between smallpox and polio eradication is “thedifference between extinguishing a candle flame andputting out a forest fire.”
Yet we have never been closer to ending the dis-ease. In 1988, there were an estimated 350,000cases of polio worldwide. In 2005, the confirmedcaseload has been slashed to just 760 people in 13countries. Through national and international lead-ership, local heroism, and economic investments,immunization rates are climbing in most countries.
In 2003, 415 million children in 55 countries wereimmunized during National Immunization Days,using more than 2.2 billion doses of oral polio vac-cine. Most national health services have respondedquickly to outbreaks. China, for example, stampedout a potential flare-up last year. The World HealthOrganization launched a massive preemptive vacci-nation campaign in Somalia to prevent an outbreakfrom spreading into the country from neighboringepidemic areas.
The obstacles now are not a lack of vision orinadequate technology;they are civil war and cul-tural mistrust. SeveralNigerian states have, attimes, blocked polio immu-nization campaigns, believ-ing the vaccine to be aWestern plot designed torender their women infer-tile. The August 2003refusal by the state of Kanoresulted in hundreds of
children being paralyzed and the virus spreading toneighboring countries. Despite these setbacks, theU.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention andits partners around the world believe that polio erad-ication is within our grasp.
Each global infectious disease poses uniquechallenges, but the strategy is clear: eradication inone region after another; isolation to a limitednumber of countries; and aggressive campaigns tobreak the chain of transmission and infection. Inthe Americas, public health authorities have already
Julie L. Gerberding is director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
In 1988, there were an
estimated 350,000 cases of
polio worldwide. In 2005, the
confirmed caseload has been
slashed to just 760 people.
54 Foreign Policy
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Sovereignty—the notion that governments arefree to do what they want within their own ter-
ritory—has provided the organizing principle ofinternational relations for more than 350 years.Thirty-five years from now, sovereignty will nolonger be sanctuary. Powerful new forces and insid-ious threats will converge against it.
Nation-states will not disappear, but they willshare power with a larger number of powerful non-sovereign actors than ever before, including corpo-rations, nongovernmental organizations, terroristgroups, drug cartels, regional and global institutions,and banks and private equity funds. Sovereignty willfall victim to the powerfuland accelerating flow ofpeople, ideas, greenhousegases, goods, dollars, drugs,viruses, e-mails, andweapons within and acrossborders. All of this trafficchallenges one of the fun-damentals of sovereignty:the ability to control whatcrosses borders. Sovereign states will increasinglymeasure their vulnerability not to one another but toforces of globalization beyond their control.
Impersonal forces aren’t the whole story, though.States in the future will sometimes choose to strip sov-ereignty from their fellow states. Similarly, a governmentthat lacks the capacity or will to provide for the basicneeds of its citizens will forfeit its sovereignty. Thatreflects not just moral scruple but also a hardheadedunderstanding that neglect—benign or otherwise—can generate destabilizing refugee flows and triggerstate failure, which creates openings for terrorists. The1999 nato intervention in Kosovo, which forced Ser-bia to give up control of the restive province after yearsof abusive rule, may well be a prototype for the future.
Implicit in all this is the notion that sovereignty isconditional, even contractual, rather than absolute. Ifa state sponsors terrorism, develops weapons of massdestruction, or conducts genocide, then it forfeits thenormal benefits of sovereignty and opens itself up toattack, removal, or occupation. The diplomatic chal-lenge will be to gain widespread support for principlesof state conduct and a procedure for determining theremedy when these principles are violated.
States will also willingly choose to shed some oftheir sovereignty. This trend is well under way, mostclearly in the trade realm. Governments agree toaccept the rulings of the World Trade Organization
because, on balance, theybenefit from a rules-basedinternational trading order,even if a particular rulingimpinges on their right toprotect national industries.Global climate change isalso prompting limits onsovereignty. The KyotoProtocol, which runs
through 2012, requires signatories to cap greenhousegas emissions. One can imagine an even more ambi-tious accord in which a larger number of govern-ments, including the United States, China, and India,would accept stricter limits based on a recognitionthat they would be worse off if no country acceptedsuch restraints.
All this adds up to a world that is not fully sover-eign. But nor is it one of either world government oranarchy. The world 35 years from now will be semi-sovereign. It will reflect the need to adapt legal andpolitical principles to a world in which the most seri-ous challenges to order come from what global forcesdo to states and what governments do to their citizensrather than from what states do to one another.
Richard N. Haass is president of the Council on Foreign Relations and author of The Opportunity: America’s Moment to AlterHistory’s Course (New York: PublicAffairs, 2005).
SovereigntyBy Richard N. Haass
Sovereignty will fall victim to
the flow of people, ideas,
greenhouse gases, dollars,
drugs, viruses, and e-mails.
eradicated measles and are stopping the transmis-sion of rubella. We are optimistic that these dis-eases, and others, will soon go from endangered toextinct. These eradications will be triumphs for
public health scientists and practitioners. Evenmore important, they will be a testament to thepower of global cooperation against diseases thatrecognize no boundaries.
September | October 2005 55
AnonymityBy Esther Dyson
A world where everyone knows everything abouteveryone else has been a common dystopia.
The villain in these frightening worlds has often beena shadowy government, thirsting for informationand control. And that remainsa frightening possibility inmany parts of the world. Butthere are other, less gloomy out-comes. A world without secretsmight actually yield a more for-giving culture with stronger,more informed individuals.
Citizens of the developedworld now give off informa-tion about themselves atunprecedented rates. Authori-ties demand information fromus when we fly, pass throughtollgates, cross borders, andenter public buildings. As theinvestigation of the July Lon-don bombings has revealed,dozens of cameras may capturea city stroll. The cyber trailsthat people leave are now well known. As manyhave discovered to their chagrin, records of e-mailssent and Web sites visited rarely disappear—andthey often pop up at the most inconvenient moments.
It’s ironic that the Web once seemed to promiseindividuals new opportunities to explore the worldwithout showing their face. Instead, it is turning outto be a powerful force against anonymity. Mostinformation about people’s online actions is trace-able—if someone with resources cares to go to thetrouble. But there will be much more to this trendthan the familiar fear of governments spying oninnocent victims, or even they-asked-for-it dissidents.The bigger questions revolve around the tolerance ofsocieties for diversity and recognition of the humancapacity for change.
The technologically adept and dedicated maybe able to preserve some form of anonymity—for atime. Some people, for example, will create multipleidentities online for the various sites they visit, thesocial networks they enter, and the online merchants
they frequent. To be sure, most identities will betraceable by authorities with subpoena power, butnot by your neighbors, your colleagues, or evenyour prospective employer. But, in the end, these
defenses will break down andour slime trails will becomeincreasingly visible.
Those trails will pose achallenge for societies eager tojudge instantly. Are we likelyto have a tolerant society whenwhole swaths of once privatebehavior become visible?Unprecedented transparencymay actually force a culturalchange—a sort of statute oflimitations on reputations.Curiosity will continue (we’rehuman beings, after all), but ahealthier understanding of howpeople can change may be theultimate result.
This salutary culturalchange will not ease the con-
cerns of those who fear anonymity’s passing. Butthere is reason to doubt the breadth of this concern.The popular perception is that people want anonymi-ty; in fact, it appears that most people crave recog-nition. Many young people want it so much that theyjoin multiple networking sites, rate themselves andfriends on various scales, and fill in online ques-tionnaires and surveys. Even as individuals evincemore and more concern about privacy and identitytheft, they flood onto the Web as themselves, pub-lishing blogs, posting photos, contributing reviews,and revealing all (or so it seems) on dating sites.
In effect, people are trading anonymity for avoice. The Web is empowering individuals to engagewith others not just as consumers picking from what’son offer, but as active negotiators, defining specifi-cations for others to meet. That effect is particular-ly visible in the commercial and social realms, but lessclear vis-à-vis the governments of the world. Asanonymity fades, a critical question will remain: Arewe getting as much as we’re giving up?
Esther Dyson is editor of Release 1.0, the technology industry newsletter published by CNET Networks.
comprehensive assessment of economic prospects andpolicies prepared twice a year by the staff of the IMF
International Monetary FundPublication ServicesRoom CN-235700 19th Street, N.W.Washington, D.C. 20431 U.S.A.
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SEPTEMBER 2005
WORLD ECONOMICOUTLOOK
The WorldEconomic
Outlook is the productof a unique internationalexercise in informationgathering and analysisperformed by IMF staffto guide key initiativesand to serve IMF member countries.
Before you commitresources, let the IMF’stop economists explainfinancial and economicdevelopments that couldhave a profound impacton your interests
Interest rates. Exchange markets. Trade balances.Savings, investments, anddebt. Commodity prices.Economic policies. So manyfactors influence the worldeconomy that it’s often difficult to get a clear perspective of what’s ahead. And yet you need
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Today, even small economicfluctuations can triggermajor financial swings.It’s vital to have the latestperspective on what’shappening—and where it could lead in the comingmonths and years. TheWorld Economic Outlookbrings you that perspective,giving you analysis,forecasts, and figures you’ll use all year long.
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58 Foreign Policy
This year, economists,
politicians, and rock
stars in rich countries
have pleaded for debt relief
and aid for the world’s poorest
countries. It certainly sounds like
the right thing to do. But utopian
dreams of alleviating poverty overlook
some hard facts. By promising so much,
rich-world activists prolong the true nightmare
of poverty. | By William Easterly
T he past has prepared all the materialsand means in superabundance to well-feed, clothe, lodge, train, educate,employ, amuse, and govern the
human race in perpetual progressive prosperity—without war, conflict, or competition betweennations or individuals.”
These words were not uttered by a hopeful worldleader at the most recent Group of 8 (G-8) summit,or by Bono at a rock concert—but they certainlysound familiar. They were written in 1857, whenBritish reformer Robert Owen called upon rich
countries, who could“easily induce all theother governments and peo-ple to unite with them in practicalmeasures for the general good allthrough futurity.” Owen was laughed out oftown as a utopian.
How comforted Owen would be if he were alivein 2005, when some of the most powerful and influ-ential people seem to believe that utopia is back.American President George W. Bush has dispatchedthe U.S. military to spread democracy throughout
The UtopianNightmare
September | October 2005 59
t h eMidd leEast, G-8leaders striveto end povertyand disease some-t ime soon, theWorld Bank promis-es development as thepath to world peace, and the International Mon-etary Fund (imf) is trying to save the environment.In a world where billions of people still suffer, theseare certainly appealing dreams. But is this surprisingnew fondness for utopia just harmless, inspirational
William Easterly is professor of economics at New York
University, nonresident fellow at the Center for Global
Development, and author of The Elusive Quest for Growth:Economists’ Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics(Cambridge: MIT Press, 2001). IL
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[ The Utopian Nightmare ]
rhetoric? Are utopian ambitions the best way tohelp the poor-world majority?
Unfortunately, no. In reality, they hurtefforts to help the world’s poor. What isutopianism? It is promising more than youcan deliver. It is seeing an easy and suddenanswer to long-standing, complex prob-lems. It is trying to solve everything atonce through an administrative appara-tus headed by “world leaders.” It placestoo much faith in altruistic cooperationand underestimates self-seeking behavior andconflict. It is expect-ing great things fromschemes designed atthe top, but doing noth-ing to solve the bigger prob-lems at the bottom.
T H E Y E A R O F L I V I N G U T O P I A N LY
At the dawn of the newmillennium, the UnitedNations realized RobertOwen’s dream of bringingtogether the “Potentates ofthe Earth” in what theglobal organization calleda Millennium Assembly.These potentates set Mil-lennium DevelopmentGoals for 2015, calling for,among other things, dra-matic reductions in pover-ty, child mortality, illiter-acy, environmentaldegradation, aids, tuberculosis, malaria,unsafe drinking water, and discrimina-tion against women.
But it is in 2005 that utopia seems tohave made its big breakthrough into mainstreamdiscourse. In March, Columbia University Profes-sor Jeffrey Sachs, celebrity economist and intellec-tual leader of the utopians, published a book calledThe End of Poverty, in which he called for a bigpush of increased foreign aid to meet the Millen-nium Development Goals and end the miseries ofthe poor. Sachs proposes everything from nitrogen-fixing leguminous trees to replenish soil fertility to
ant iretrovira laids therapy, cell phonesthat provide up-to-datemarket information tohealth planners, rainwater
harvesting, and battery-charging stations. His U.N.
Millennium Project pro-posed a total of 449interventions.
British Chancellorof the Exchequer Gor-don Brown likewisecalled in January for amajor increase in aid,a “Marshall Plan” forAfrica. Brown was soconfident he knewhow to save theworld’s poor that heeven called for borrow-ing against future aidcommitments to finance
massive increases in aidtoday. At the World Economic Forumin January, British Prime MinisterTony Blair called for a “big, big push”to meet the goals for 2015, and his
administration issued a fat report on saving Africain March. The World Bank and the imf issued theirown weighty document in April about meeting thesegoals and endorsing the call for a big push, andutopians of the world will reconvene at the U.N.World Summit in September to evaluate progress onthe Millennium Development Goals. The G-8 lead-ers agreed on a plan in June to cancel $40 billionworth of poor-country debt to help facilitate the
September | October 2005 61
Indeed, we have seen the failure of what wasalready a “big push” of foreign aid to Africa. After43 years and $568 billion (in 2003 dollars) in for-eign aid to the continent, Africa remains trapped ineconomic stagnation. Moreover, after $568 billion,donor officials apparently still have not gottenaround to furnishing those 12-cent medicines tochildren to prevent half of all malaria deaths.
With all the political and popular support forsuch ambitious programs, why then do compre-hensive packages almost always fail to accom-plish much good, much less attain Utopia? Theyget the political and economic incentives all wrong.The biggest problem is that the rich people paying
the bills do not share the same goals as the poorpeople they are trying to help. The wealthy haveweak incentives to get the right amount of theright thing to those who need it; the poor are in noposition to complain if they don’t. A more subtleproblem is that if all of us are collectively respon-sible for a big world goal, then no single agency orpolitician is held accountable if the goal is notmet. Collective responsibility for world goalsworks about as well as collective farms in agri-culture, and for the same reason.
To make things worse, utopian-driven aidpackages have so many different goals that itweakens the accountability and probability ofmeeting any one goal. The conditional aid loans ofthe imf and World Bank (structural adjustmentloans) were notorious for their onerous policyand outcome targets, which often numbered inthe hundreds. The eight Millennium DevelopmentGoals actually have 18 target indicators. The U.N.Millennium Project released a 3,751-page reportin January 2005 listing the 449 intermediate stepsnecessary to meet those 18 final targets. Workingfor multiple bosses (or goals) doesn’t usually workout so well; the bosses each try to get you to workon their goal and not the other boss’s goal. Suchemployees get overworked, overwhelmed, anddemoralized—not a bad description of today’s
“push.” The imf might even tap its gold reserves tobolster the effort.
The least likely utopian is George W. Bush,who has shown less interest in vanquishing pover-ty, but has sought to portray the Iraq misadventureas a step toward universal democracy and worldpeace. As he modestly put it in his Second Inau-gural Address in January 2005, “America, in thisyoung century, proclaims liberty throughout all theworld, and to all the inhabitants thereof.”
These leaders frequently talk about how easy itis to help the poor. According to Brown, medicinethat would prevent half of all malaria deaths costsonly 12 cents per person. A bed net to prevent achild from contracting malariacosts only $4. Preventing 5 mil-lion child deaths over the next 10years would cost just an extra $3for each new mother, says Brown.
The emphasis on these easysolutions emerged as worry aboutterrorist havens in poor states inter-sected with the campaigning on thepart of Sachs, Bono, rocker BobGeldof, and the British Labourites. All these fac-tions didn’t seem to realize aid workers had beentrying for years to end poverty.
A L L TA L K , N O T R A C T I O N
We have already seen the failure of comprehensiveutopian packages in the last two decades: the failureof “shock therapy” to convert the former Soviet Unionfrom communism to capitalism and the failure ofimf/World Bank “structural adjustment” to trans-form nations in Africa, the Middle East, and LatinAmerica into free-market paragons. All of theseregions have suffered from poor economic growthsince utopian efforts began. In the new millenni-um, apparently unchastened, the imf and WorldBank are trying something even more ambitious—social, political, economic, and environmental trans-formation of the poorest nations through PovertyReduction Strategy Papers. These reports, whichthe imf and World Bank require that governmentsdesign in consultation with the poor, are compre-hensive plans to make poverty vanish in each nation.It is a little unclear how a bureaucratic document canmake often undemocratic governments yield someof their power to the poor, or how it will be moresuccessful than previous comprehensive plans thatseem modest by comparison.
After handing out $568 billion in aid, donor officials
apparently still have not gotten around to
furnishing those 12-cent medicines.
62 Foreign Policy
[ The Utopian Nightmare ]
working-level staff at the World Bank and otheraid agencies.
Top-down strategies such as those envisionedby President Bush, Prime Minister Blair, and Bonoalso suffer from complex information problems,even when the incentive problems are solved. Plan-ners at the global top simply don’t know what,when, and where to give to poor people at theglobal bottom.
That is not tosay that it is impos-sible to meet multi-ple goals for multi-ple customers withmultiple agents.The various needsof the rich are meteasily enough bya system of decen-tralized marketsand democracy,which utilize feed-back from thecustomers andaccountability ofthe suppliers.Rich, middle-agedmen can buyRogaine to growhair on their heads,while women canbuy Nair to get ridof hair on theirlegs. No Millenni-um DevelopmentGoal on Body Hairwas necessary. TheRogaine and Naircorporations areaccountable to theircustomers for satis-faction. If the cus-tomers don’t carefor the product, thecorporations go outof business; if thecustomers do likethe product, cor-porations have aprofit incentive tosupply it. Similarly,men and women in
wealthy countries can complain to democraticallyaccountable bureaucrats and politicians if garbagecollectors do not pick up their discarded Rogaine andNair bottles. Private markets also specialize; there isno payoff for them to produce a comprehensiveproduct that both removes hair from women’s legsand transfers it to men’s heads. The irony of the sit-uation is tragically obvious: The cosmetic needs of therich are met easily, while the much more desperate
September | October 2005 63
needs of the poor get lost in centralized, utopian,comprehensive planning.
P O V E RT Y S TA RT S AT H O M E
Free markets and democracy are far from anovernight solution to poverty—they require amongmany other things the bottom-up evolution of therules of the game, including contract enforcement andfair political competition. Nor can democratic cap-italism be imposed by outsiders (as the World Bank,imf, and U.S. Army should now have learned). Theevolution of markets and democracy took manydecades in rich countries, and it did not happenthrough “big pushes” by outsiders, MillenniumDevelopment Goals, or Assembliesof World Leaders. Progress inwealthy countries arrived throughpiecemeal steps, gradual reforms,incremental improvements, andexperimental probing, accompaniedby gradually accelerating econom-ic growth, rather than throughcrash programs.
The problems of the poornations have deep institutionalroots at home, where marketsdon’t work well and politicians and civil servantsaren’t accountable to their citizens. That makesutopian plans even more starry-eyed, as the “bigpush” must ultimately rely on dysfunctional localinstitutions. For example, there are many weaklinks in the chain that leads from Gordon Brown’s12-cent malaria drug to actual health outcomes inpoor countries. According to research by DeonFilmer, Jeffrey Hammer, and Lant Pritchett at theWorld Bank, anywhere from 30 percent to asmuch as 70 percent of the drugs destined for ruralhealth clinics in several African countries disappearbefore reaching the clinics. According to one sur-vey in Zimbabwe, pregnant women were reluctantto use public health clinics to give birth becausenurses ridiculed them for not having better babyclothes, forced them to wash bed linens soon afterdelivery, and even hit them to encourage them topush the baby out faster during delivery. AndAfrica is not alone—nearly all poor countries haveproblems of corrupt and often unfriendly civil ser-vants, as today’s rich countries did earlier in theirhistory. Researchers find that many people in poorcountries bypass public health services altogether,in favor of private doctors or folk remedies.
The poor have neither the income nor politicalpower to hold anyone accountable for meetingtheir needs—they are political and economicorphans. The rich-country public knows littleabout what is happening to the poor on the groundin struggling countries. The wealthy populationmainly just wants to know that “something isbeing done” about such a tragic problem as worldpoverty. The utopian plans satisfy the “something-is-being-done” needs of the rich-country public,even if they don’t serve the needs of the poor.Likewise, the Bush Doctrine soothes the fears ofAmericans concerned about evil tyrants, withoutconsulting the poor-country publics on whetherthey wish to be conquered or democratized.
The “something-is-being-done” syndrome alsoexplains the fixation on money spent on worldpoverty, rather than how to meet the needs of thepoor. True, doubling the relatively trivial propor-tion of their income that rich Westerners give topoor Africans is a worthy enough cause. But let’snot kid ourselves that spending more money onforeign aid accomplishes anything by itself. Lettingtotal aid money stand for accomplishment is likethe Hollywood producers of Catwoman, recentlyvoted the worst movie of 2004, bragging abouttheir impressive accomplishment of spending $100million on its production.
T H E WAY O U T
Certainly not all aid efforts are futile. Instead of set-ting utopian goals such as ending world poverty,global leaders should simply concentrate on findingparticular interventions that work. Anecdotal andsome systematic evidence suggests piecemeal approach-es to aid can be successful. Routine childhood immu-nization combined with measles vaccination in sevensouthern African nations cut reported measles casesfrom 60,000 in 1996 to 117 in 2000. Another part-
Letting total aid money stand for accomplishment is
like the producers of Catwoman, recently voted the
worst movie of 2004, bragging about the movie’s
$100 million production budget.
64 Foreign Policy
[ The Utopian Nightmare ]
nership among aid donors contributed to the near erad-ication of guinea worm in 20 African and Asian coun-tries where it was endemic. Abhijit Banerjee and RuiminHe at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology listexamples of successful aid programs that passed rigor-ous evaluation: subsidies to families for education andhealth costs for their children, remedial teaching, uni-forms and textbooks, school vouchers, dewormingdrugs and nutritional supplements, vaccination, hivprevention, indoor spraying for malaria, bed nets, fer-tilizer, and clean water.
Of course, finding and maintaining piecemealapproaches that work well requires improving incen-tives for aid agencies. Better incentives might comefrom placing more emphasis on the independentevaluation of aid projects. Given the vast sums thatare being spent, reliable evaluations remain sur-prisingly rare. Better incentives could also comefrom devising means to get more feedback from thepoor people that the programs are trying to help, andholding aid agencies accountable when the feed-back is negative. It seems more productive to focuson such critical problems in foreign aid rather thansimply promising the rich-country public the end ofworld poverty.
If an aid-financed “big push” will not generatesociety-wide development, are things hopeless forpoor countries? Fortunately, poor countries are mak-ing progress on their own, without waiting for theWest to save them. The steady improvement in healthand education in poor countries (except for the aidscrisis), the market-driven growth of China and India,the movement toward democracy in Latin Americaand Africa (even amid continued disappointing eco-nomic growth), not to mention earlier successes suchas Botswana and the East Asian Tiger economies,offer hope for homegrown and gradual development.
The outpouring of donations for last Decem-ber’s tsunami victims shows that Europeans andAmericans have genuine compassion for those inneed. Can the rich-country public call their politi-cians’ bluff and refuse to let them get away withutopian dreams as a substitute for the hard slog-ging of delivering benefits to the poor? Will theyhold the aid agencies accountable for gettingmoney to those in need? Will they figure out newways to give voice to the voiceless? If they asked,they would likely find that the poor are unmovedby utopian dreams. They probably just want those12-cent medicines.
Some of 2005’s grandiose plans and prescriptions for lifting up the poor include Jeffrey Sachs’s TheEnd of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Our Time (Penguin Press: New York, 2005) and the WorldBank and International Monetary Fund’s Global Monitoring Report 2005, Millennium Develop-ment Goals: From Consensus to Momentum (World Bank: Washington, April 2005). See also theWeb site of British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s Commission for Africa.
Several works delve into why utopian plans to help the poor are often doomed. See, for exam-ple, The Poverty of Historicism (Boston: Beacon Press, 1957), by Sir Karl Raimund Popper, or See-ing Like a State: How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed (New Haven:Yale University Press, 1998), by James C. Scott.
For a look at several of the programs and methods that have achieved some success in foreignaid, see Ruth Levine, et al., Millions Saved: Proven Successes in Global Health (Washington: Cen-ter for Global Development, 2004), and “Think Again: U.S. Foreign Aid” (www.ForeignPolicy.com,February 2005), by Steven Radelet.
William Easterly’s previous works on rich-world attempts at poverty reduction include The Elu-sive Quest for Growth: Economists’ Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics (Cambridge: mitPress, 2001) and “The Cartel of Good Intentions” (Foreign Policy, July/August 2002).
»For links to relevant Web sites, access to the FP Archive, and a comprehensive index of related Foreign Policy articles, go to www.ForeignPolicy.com.
[ Want to Know More? ]
Unrest in IraqInsurgency and Governance
Insurgency and Counter-Insurgency in IraqAhmed S. HashimLooking ahead, Hashim warns that ethnic and sectarian groups may soon be pitted against one another in what will be a fiercely contested fight over who gets what in the new Iraq. Evidence that such a conflict is already developing does not augur well for Iraq’s future stability. Both Iraq and the United States must work hard to ensure that slow but steady success over the insurgency is not overshadowed by growing ethno-sectarian animosities as various groups fight one another for the biggest slice of the political and economic pie.
In place of sensational headlines, official triumphalism, and hand-wringing,Insurgency and Counter-insurgency in Iraq offers a clear-eyed analysis of the increasingly complex violence that threatens the very future of Iraq.
Revolt on the TigrisThe Al-Sadr Uprising and the Governing of IraqMark EtheringtonA former paratrooper in the British Army and M.Phil in international relations from Cambridge, Etherington was asked by the British Foreign Office to assume the governorship of Wasit Province in southern Iraq on behalf of the Coalition Provisional Authority.
The province was plagued by poverty and beset by social paralysis. A demoralized and often corrupt police force was incapable of imposing the rule of law. Ba’ath party functionaries had been purged, local municipal authority was weak, and basic services were lacking. More challenging still was an escalating armed insurgency by the followers of Moqtada al-Sadr that would culminate in a sixteen-hour fi refight for control over the CPA’s base in Kut.
This gritty and compelling firsthand account of post-confl ict Iraq describes the turmoil visited on the country by outside intervention and the difficulties faced by the Coalition in fashioning a new political and civil apparatus.Part of the Crises in World Politics series from
Cornell University Press www.cornellpress.cornell.edu
66 Foreign Policy
The NBA understands the power of an icon. When Michael Jordan retired from
basketball, the league’s ratings began to fall. To bounce back, the NBA expanded
overseas and lured foreign talent to the game. And there is no one who is as big
an ambassador as Yao Ming. The NBA sees its salvation in the 7-foot, 6-inch
Chinese sensation—and in 1.3 billion hoops fans. | By Brook Larmer
The marketing wizards at the NationalBasketball Association (NBA) like totalk about China as basketball’s “finalfrontier.” But the Middle Kingdom’s
fascination with hoops began long before an affable7-foot, 6-inch giant named Yao Ming debuted withthe nba’s Houston Rockets in 2002. China may nothave invented the game, as some Chinese sports his-torians claim, pointing to the ancient pastime ofshouju, a form of Han dynasty handball. But basket-ball did, in fact, land in China before it arrived in Hous-ton, and only a few years after an eccentric Canadiannamed James Naismith invented the game in 1891.
From the beginning, basketball was destined to bea global sport—and China its ultimate conquest—forone serendipitous reason: Doc Naismith created thegame at the Young Men’s Christian Association
(ymca) international training center in Springfield,Massachusetts, a place where young missionariesimbibed a vision of “muscular Christianity” beforeheading off to redeem the world. China was the biggestemerging market for souls to be saved, an empire of400 million people in the waning years of the Qingdynasty. When ymca missionaries arrived in the cityof Tianjin in the 1890s carrying “The Thirteen Rulesof Basketball,” along with their Bibles, they believedthat salvation would come through God and hoops,though not necessarily in that order.
More than a century later, another wave of West-ern evangelists has descended on the Middle Kingdom,preaching a glitzier gospel of globalization. Instead ofBibles and “The Thirteen Rules of Basketball,” the for-eigners who began trickling into China in the 1990scarried different symbols of their faith: the Nikeswoosh, the nba logo, highlight films of a miracle mannamed Michael Jordan—all played to the hip-hopsoundtrack of global youth culture. China, 1.3 billionstrong, had finally emerged from decades of isolationand was hurtling into a dizzying economic boom.
Brook Larmer, a former Newsweek correspondent, is the
author of Operation Yao Ming: The Chinese SportsEmpire, American Big Business, and the Making of anNBA Superstar (New York: Gotham Books, 2005).
The
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[ C O V E R S T O R Y ]
Most valuable player: Yao Ming hasbecome a dominant presence in the
league since Houston drafted him inthe top spot in 2002.
68 Foreign Policy
[ The Center of the World ]
Hoping to crack the last great untapped market onEarth, the new evangelists peddled a vision of sportsas entertainment, a pleasurable commodity that chan-neled the values of freedom, competition, and indi-vidual heroism. The Westerners put their faith in thepower of athletic icons—especially basketball stars—to inspire the kind of emotional bond that woulddrive the Chinese masses to watch, cheer, and fill theirhomes with loads of really cool imported stuff.
Even as Chinese youth latch onto the emblemsof hyper-capitalist Western sports culture, the newgeneration of Chinese leaders still sees sports notso much as business, recreation, or entertainment,but as a projection of national ambition, a yearn-ing that is particularly powerful as Beijing pre-pares to host the 2008 Olympic Games. China’smassive socialist sports machine, modeled on theold Soviet system, may seem like an anachronism inthe global economy; indeed, only Cuba and NorthKorea still have such “womb-to-tomb” programs.But the sports factories keep churning out world-class athletes who bring glory to the motherland,and Beijing is loath to stop the assembly line ofchampions. The system’s successes, after all, serveas tangible evidence that China is once againstanding tall in the community of nations.
The meeting of East and West—China and theworld—will likely be the defining encounter of the 21stcentury. And perhaps no individual symbolizes this cos-mic convergence more than Yao Ming. The life of thelantern-jawed 25-year-old star has been so thoroughlyshaped by the two great forces of our time, China’sexplosive rise and the expansion of transnational cap-italism, that he can truly be considered the child ofglobalization. Were it not for China’s ambition toraise its international stature through sports, Yao’sparents (both basketball players, 6 feet, 10 inches and6 feet, 2 inches, respectively) never would have beenforcibly recruited into the Chinese sports systemand paired up in retirement to produce the nextgeneration of giants. If Yao had been born any-where else—say, Chile, Chad, or even Chicago—hewould likely not have been pulled out of schooland pressed into basketball camps at an early age. Andhe almost certainly would not have delighted the nbaas much as the Shanghainese center did when, after aprotracted East-West tug-of-war over his fate, he wasfinally allowed to go to the United States in 2002.
When Yao scored his first basket in Houston, itwas almost as if, by closing the circle, an electricalcurrent bolted back and forth across the Pacific.Millions of his compatriots, indifferent to his fate
Hoop dreams: Beijing did not embrace the NBA at first, but Chinese basketball fans are now watching its games in record numbers.
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like a pair of chopsticks—mainland Chinese havedominated the sport for 45 years, winning morethan half of all world championships, including asweep of the men’s and women’s titles this year.
Still, this was only ping-pong. The game requiresagility and lightning-fast reflexes, but it hardly com-mands fear and respect around the world. Even inthe Chinese bureaucracy, the sport was classifiedalmost apologetically as one of the “small balls.” Thetop leaders in Beijing knew that real respect wouldcome only when China could compete with theWestern powers in the “big balls”—soccer, volley-ball, and basketball—and in the most illustrious ofall sporting events, the Olympic Games. Deng’sdiplomatic démarche opened the way. In 1979, thesame year Beijing and Washington normalized rela-tions, mainland China elbowed Taiwan aside andrejoined the Olympic movement.
Frantic preparations for China’s debut in the1984 Olympics in Los Angeles sent the sports sys-tem into overdrive. Using China’s main competitiveadvantages—a massive pool of youngsters and thestate’s power to compel them to train—China’s“Gold-Medal Strategy” expanded the sports system(to more than 3,000 schools training almost400,000 youth) and targeted sports that offered ahigh density of Olympic gold (even if some disci-plines, such as kayaking, were not a tradition inChina). Nothing could have gratified the insecurenation more than the final tally in Los Angeles: 15
gold medals, zero defections, and a cuddly receptionfrom the rest of the world.
China’s march up the Olympic medals tablehas continued for the past two decades, alwaysone beat ahead of the country’s economic rise.Before every Olympics, China’s sports authoritiesset ambitious goals for gold medals. The intensepressure, though blamed for a series of dopingscandals in the 1990s, has created an athletic jug-gernaut. By the time the Olympics returned to theirbirthplace in Athens last year, China was chal-lenging the United States for supremacy atop the
before, now celebrate him as a patriotic icon whosmashes the stereotype of the weak and diminutiveChinese and shows how China can compete againstthe best in the world. American fans, initially trans-fixed by his staggering height, have embraced histhrowback personality—the self-effacing humor,team-first attitude, blue-collar game—and sent himto the All-Star Game for three straight years. Theworld’s biggest multinationals, from Pepsi andReebok to Visa and McDonald’s, have also leapedat the chance to sign Yao to multimillion-dollarendorsement contracts. The corporate executiveslove Yao not simply because he is 7 feet, 6 inches,talented, and congenial, a squeaky-clean athlete ina sea of preening and misbehaving superstars. Theywant him, above all, because he is Chinese.
C O M P E T I N G W I T H T H E W O R L D
It is one of the delicious ironies of history that thefate of China’s tallest athletes rested in the hands ofone of history’s shortest rulers. Deng Xiaoping,China’s paramount leader when Yao was born,stood barely 4 feet, 11 inches, though his exactheight was guarded like a state secret. Whetherdriven by his own size or not, Deng was consumedwith returning China to its former heights as aglobal power.
When he assumed power in 1978, the countrywas still on its knees, barely emerging from thedecade-long catastrophe of the Cul-tural Revolution. The economicrenaissance he hoped to sparkwould take time. Even with highgrowth rates, it would be decadesbefore China could contend withthe West economically, militarily,or diplomatically. The one high-profile arena in which China couldrapidly compete as equals with therest of the world was sports.
For the previous two decades, China had eitherwithdrawn from or been shunned by nearly everyworld sports federation, including the Internation-al Olympic Committee. One organization thatswitched its allegiance to the Communists in Beijingfrom the rival Nationalists in Taipei was the Interna-tional Table Tennis Federation, a quirk of history thatcompelled China to become a world power in agame that, to American minds, was associated withthe linoleum-lined basements of suburbia. With theirunusual grips—until recently, they held their paddles
Corporate executives love Yao, not simply because he
is 7 feet, 6 inches, talented, and congenial.... They
want him, above all, because he is Chinese.
medals table, winning 32 gold to the Americans’35—a feat that sparked excited whispers in Beijingthat China could certainly surpass the United Stateson its home soil in 2008. When the 407-memberChinese team marched proudly into Athens’sOlympic stadium, it was no accident that the five-star red flag of the People’s Republic flew higherthan any other nation’s. The flag-bearer selected tolead the procession was none other than Yao Ming,who towered over every other athlete.
Deng’s dream of standing tall had literallycome true.
LOOKING FOR THE F INAL FRONTIER
Since the earliest Olympic Games in Athens, sporthas been celebrated for its ability to reach across thebarriers of race, culture, dialect, and nation. Butnow, fueled by forces of globalization—satellite tel-evision, the computer revolution, the demise ofcommunism—the sports business has morphed intoa multitrillion-dollar industry that effortlessly spansthe planet. The historian Walter LaFeber hasobserved that, aside from the illegal narcotics trade,sport has become the world’s most globalized andlucrative business.
70 Foreign Policy
[ The Center of the World ]
The National BasketballAssociation has honedits image around the
world as the purveyor of allthat is hip, trendy, and cool.But there is one thing aboutthe league that remains hope-lessly anachronistic: its name.The nba should really be calledthe iba, replacing “National”with “International.” Theleague is already making alarge chunk of its fortune over-seas; nba commissioner DavidStern predicts that, within the
next decade, foreign broadcastswill reach 50 percent of U.S.television revenue. But theglobal influences manifestthemselves in something farmore obvious for even casualobservers of the game: therapid influx of foreign namesand faces into a league that haslong assumed the superiorityof American players.
When U.S. basketball’s madrush to globalize began in1992—the first time the worldwitnessed nba players at anOlympic Games—the DreamTeam waltzed through the com-petition, even signing autographsfor starstruck opponents. Nev-ertheless, those Olympicbroadcasts spawned a newgeneration of nba hopefulsfrom Beijing to Buenos Aires.Before 1992, there were fewerthan a dozen foreign-born play-ers in the nba. Last season, awhopping 81 foreign-bornplayers from 35 different coun-tries and territories crowded theleague’s rosters. Only twoteams lacked a foreign player,and the nba champion SanAntonio Spurs boasted threestarters born outside the Unit-ed States: Tim Duncan from the
U.S. Virgin Islands, Tony Parkerfrom France, and Manu Ginobiliof Argentina.
Scouring the remotestregions of the Earth for teenageseven footers has become therage among nba teams. In theleague’s June 2005 draft, 18foreign-born players (includingoverall top draft choice AndrewBogut of Australia) were select-ed, compared with 10 in 1999and 4 in 1994. The foreign inva-sion, naturally, has its critics,from those who moan about thenba’s eagerness to exploit over-seas markets to those who say itis part of a “pearl drops” strat-egy to whiten a league whoseplayers are mostly black—andwhose fans and corporate spon-sors are mostly white. But sucharguments ring hollow everytime the foreigners prove thatthey’ve got game. Foreign-bornplayers now make up some 15percent of the nba’s starting line-ups, and they are virtually colo-nizing the All-Star Game. If thatdoesn’t convince, just look howbadly the American team gotspanked at the Athens Olympicslast year. It was the gold medal-winning Argentines’ turn to signthe autographs. —BL
How the Game Travels
Sharp shooters: Manu Ginobili is flying high.
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But that wasn’t how the nba looked when DavidStern became the league’s commissioner in 1984.The league was a wasteland plagued by bankruptteams and drug scandals, its audience so meager thatcbs had, just a few years earlier, broadcast the nbafinals late at night on tape delay. When Stern, the sonof a delicatessen owner, suggested that basketballcould one day rival soccer as the world’s most pop-ular sport, his critics thought he must’ve been as highas all too many nba players at the time. The nba, theysaid, was too alien, too menacing, too “black” to sellto the mainstream American public, much less to therest of the world. But Stern envisioned a game thatdefied the boundaries of race and culture and geog-raphy just as easily as its acrobatic players defied thelimits of gravity. The emergence of marquee play-ers—first Larry Bird and Magic Johnson, thenMichael Jordan—helped lure fans. But the league’sgrowth into a $3 billion business and worldwide cul-tural phenomenon began with a man whose dreamswere global. “It dawned on me,” Stern recalls, “that thecombination of the global appeal of our game and thegrowth of television markets around the world meantthat nba games were going to be seen everywhere.”
The final frontier for the nba, as for so manymultinationals, was China. By the time Stern madehis first trip to the Middle Kingdom in 1989, the nbahad expanded its reach into Europe, played regular-season games in Japan, and fielded its first playerfrom the soon-to-be-former Soviet Union. But Chinawasn’t so welcoming. Stern had arrived with whathe thought was a surefire deal: free programming forChina’s state-run television monopoly that wouldhelp the nba gain a foothold in the world’s biggestmarket. In other countries, Stern was given the red-carpet treatment. But as the most powerful man inAmerican sports strode into the marble lobby ofChina Central Television’s headquarters, nobodywas there to greet him; indeed, nobody even knewwho he was. Snubbed by one TV executive, Stern wasmade to wait for hours to meet a low-level appa-ratchik who lectured him on the importance ofennobling, rather than entertaining, the masses.
The Chinese masses, however, longed to be enter-tained, no matter what state television said. Stern gotan inkling of the people’s hunger for basketballwhen his tour guide at the imperial burial groundsin Xi’an confided that she was “a great fan of theRed Oxen.” After a moment of confusion, Sternrealized that Red Oxen was the Chinese nicknamefor the Chicago Bulls. The woman, it turned out, hadbeen watching pirated videotapes of Michael Jordan.
A year later, when China Central Television final-ly began to air the nba finals on tape delay, it coin-cided with Jordan’s first championship with theBulls. The “Space Flier,” as the Chinese called him,struck a deep chord in a nation struggling to find abalance, which he embodied, between individualflair and team spirit. In one 1992 survey, a group ofChinese schoolchildren ranked Jordan as a moreimportant historical figure than Mao Zedong.
For all of Jordan’s popularity, Stern understoodthat the Chinese public would never fully embracethe nba until one of its own was playing in theleague. “David Stern always wanted to find a ChineseMichael Jordan to break open the China market,”says Xu Jicheng, a veteran basketball commenta-tor. But finding a local hero who could make theleap to the nba wasn’t a simple prospect. China’sbest players were still being developed behind thewalls of the nation’s socialist sports system as prop-erties of the state. By the late 1990s, rumors spreadin the West about two talented Chinese young-sters who stood more than 7 feet tall. Both Yao
Standing tall: Yao is one of China’s great hopes for Olympic gold in 2008.
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[ The Center of the World ]
Ming and his older rival, 7 foot, 1 inch army sol-dier Wang Zhizhi, had developed solid skills inthe Chinese system, and by the time the nba scoutsand Nike executives discovered them, they hadalready begun to model their games on the nbastars they saw on television.
The first efforts to bring these players to thenba were tragicomedies of cross-cultural misun-derstanding. In early 1999, an American lawyerjoined forces with the manager of Yao’s Shanghaiteam to sign the 19-year-old giant to a represen-tation agreement, only to have Yao’s family angri-ly renege, claiming that they were forced into adeal that was tantamount to extortion. When theDallas Mavericks surreptitiously drafted Wang lessthan two months later, the soldier’s army superiorswere so baffled and incensed by the Americanintrusion that they refused to meet with the team’sowner at the time, H. Ross Perot Jr. China hasalways been wary of foreign powers coming in tolay claim to its resources, fearing that anyencounter could leave it weakened and humiliat-ed. Today, even as a newly powerful nation opensup to the outside world, the same suspicions remainabout American basketball. “Chinese officials lookat the nba as an imperialistic power,” says Yao’sChinese-American agent Erik Zhang. “They seethese Americans coming in to take away their bestplayers and offering very little in return.”
It would be another two years before the first Chi-nese player would make the leap to the klieg-lit uni-verse of the nba. In April 2001, as part of a good-will gesture to solidify Beijing’s 2008 Olympic bid,
China’s sports authori-ties finally let Wang jointhe Mavericks. His debutin Dallas came just daysafter a U.S. spy plane wasforced down over Chineseterritory, but fans wel-comed Wang as a peace-ful antidote to Sino-Amer-ican tension, an innocentsoldier whose only long-range missile was a three-point jump shot. Wang’ssuccess soon soured. Ayear later, fearing that Bei-jing would not let himcontinue his nba careerand instead force him toprop up the ailing domes-
tic league, the soldier refused to return home, goingawol in America. Branded a traitor in China, the erst-while hero lost his spot on the national team and mil-lions of dollars in potential endorsements.
YA O ’ S W O R L D
If Wang Zhizhi seemed caught in the chasmbetween China and America, Yao Ming soon cameto symbolize the bridge spanning the East-Westdivide. The Houston Rockets drafted Yao in thetop spot, but it took three agonizing months beforeBeijing was convinced that Yao would not defectand that China would lose more face internation-ally by holding onto its star. When Yao finallylanded in Houston, Rockets’ owner Les Alexanderwas ecstatic. “This is the biggest individual sportsstory of all time,” he said. “Mark my words: intwo or three years, he’ll be bigger than TigerWoods or Michael Jordan.”
Yao seemed overwhelmed at first by the bur-den of expectations on both sides of the Pacific.“Every step I made, the pressure was bigger,” hesaid later. “The pressure from the United Stateswas in front of me. The pressure from China wasbehind me. I was squeezed between them.” It tookthe shy center a month of bumbling play to catchup to the pace of the American game, but by thetime he began to wow audiences with his turn-around jumpers and sheepish smiles, the nba wasalready cashing in on his presence. After treadingcautiously in China for nearly a decade, the leaguequickly opened its first mainland office in Beijing,
Inside game: The NBA’s aggressive style of play has forced Yao to become more physical under the basket.
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launched a Chinese-language Web site, and signednew (and, finally, modestly profitable) television con-tracts with 12 provincial stations to broadcast a totalof 168 nba games, more than double the previous year.The nba even commissioned a full-length docu-mentary movie about Yao’s rookie year and pro-duced a television spot in which Yao leads a class ofreferees, mascots, and players in the graceful move-ments of tai chi. “Wo ai zheige bisai,” says Yao atthe end of the commercial. “I love this game.”
And the game loved Yao. His regular-seasonnba games, which draw about 1 million viewers inthe United States, regularly attract up to 30 millionin China, making the Houston Rockets China’sfavorite team—and the world’s most watched. WhenInternet portal Sohu hosted a 90-minute online chatwith Yao in December 2002, nearly 9 million fanslogged on, crashing the system in six of China’slargest cities. In the United States, a new demo-graphic of Asian fans has flocked to stadiums towatch the giant stride across court, offering an imageof China that has nothing to do with ChairmanMao or massacres at Tiananmen Square. Non-Asianfans, meanwhile, like him for making the alien seem
familiar, the freakishly tall endearingly small. “Yaois a dream for David Stern and the nba,” saysRockets’ president George Postolos. “He takes glob-alization to a new level.”
The grand convergence that Stern had been antic-ipating would finally come in October 2004, whenYao returned home to headline the first nba gamesever played on Chinese soil. The preseason contestsbetween the Houston Rockets and the SacramentoKings did not count in the official standings. But apair of meaningless games never meant so much.For a basketball-mad nation (China) and a China-obsessed league (the nba), this was a seminal event—the moment when the world’s fastest-growing sportsenterprise finally made landfall in the world’s fastest-growing market. Stern didn’t have to worry aboutbeing snubbed this time. With Yao by his side—anda domain that now extends beyond the reach of theUnited Nations (nba games air in more than 200countries and territories)—the commissioner sat con-tentedly in the stadium’s vip section, finally receiv-ing the red-carpet treatment.
Looming on the horizon is an even biggerevent: the 2008 Olympics. The Games’ long-await-
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Favorite son: While other professional players get the summer off, Yao must make time to play for China’s national team.
74 Foreign Policy
The interconnection between sports and globalization may be as ubiquitous as a Saturday afternoongame on tv, but there are precious few books that explore the link. Historian Walter LaFeber offersa brisk overview in Michael Jordan and the New Global Capitalism (New York: W.W. Norton &Co., 1999), a tautly written polemic about the nba, Nike, and the globalization of the sports indus-try. Sports Illustrated writer Alexander Wolff takes a very different approach from the ground up—that is, from nearly every hoops-loving country in the world—in his delightful Big Game, Small World:A Basketball Adventure (New York: Warner Books, 2002).
The Western influence on Chinese sports culture comes through in Andrew Morris’s trenchanthistorical account, Marrow of the Nation: A History of Sport and Physical Culture in RepublicanChina (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2004). Judy Polumbaum’s article “From Evange-lism to Entertainment: The YMCA, the NBA, and the Evolution of Chinese Basketball” (ModernChinese Literature and Culture, Spring 2002) looks more specifically at the history of Chinesebasketball, from the late Qing dynasty to the Communist Army’s Long March. American anthro-pologist Susan Brownell’s Training the Body for China: Sports in the Moral Order of the People’sRepublic (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1995) takes readers further into the heart of thecommunist sports system.
For another look at the intersection of culture, politics, and sports, see Franklin Foer’s “Soccervs. McWorld” (Foreign Policy, January/February 2004).
»For links to relevant Web sites, access to the FP Archive, and a comprehensive index of related Foreign Policy articles, go to www.ForeignPolicy.com.
[ Want to Know More? ]
ed arrival in Beijing, coming exactly one centuryafter ymca missionaries first dreamed of the possibility,are meant to mark China’s return as a global super-power. And the star of the coming-out party will,almost inevitably, be Yao Ming. He alone amongChinese athletes is a global icon, famous both at homeand abroad, an instantly recognizable embodimentof China’s emergence in the world. But the mandarinsin Beijing will not be the only ones counting on Yaoto perform well in 2008. So, too, will the moguls ofcorporate America. The Beijing Olympics will arrivejust as Yao, at 27, reaches his prime both as a playerand as a pitchman, a moment when his endorsementincome alone could rise to more than $100 million.“Beijing is the big day, the pinnacle of Yao’s earningpower,” says Bill Sanders, who handles marketing forTeam Yao. “The world will be watching.”
The coalescence of East and West has given Yaomore wealth and fame than he ever could have imag-ined growing up as a poor child in Shanghai. But heis keenly aware of the inherent contradictions, too. Thevery gentility that has endeared him to fans, advertis-ers, and Chinese officials, for example, is also limitinghis effectiveness in the brutally competitive world of
the nba, provoking some critics to slap him with theleague’s most damning epithet: “soft.” Yet when Yaodisplays a flash of toughness and leadership, as he didwhen he lashed out at teammates during an Olympicgame in Athens last summer, Chinese officials fumethat their obedient star has been corrupted by thenba’s selfish individualism. “He has changed,” saidone Chinese official in Athens. “He’s more like anAmerican. He dares to say anything.”
In truth, Yao has shown a keen appreciation for thevalues he learned in China—skill over strength, pas-sivity over aggression, collective honor over individualachievement. But now he realizes that they are nolonger enough to help him reach his full potential.Although he has dutifully reiterated his patriotic com-mitment to play for the national team, he has also toldfriends that toughening up his game would requirespending more time in the off-season training with hisnba peers in the United States and less time goingthrough the monotonous grind of national-team work-outs. “I have to find a way to balance the two sides,”he said. It is a balancing act that will continue, just asit will for all who try to negotiate the divide betweenChina and the world.
[ The Center of the World ]
©2003 Cartier, Inc.
5454 Wisconsin Avenue, Chevy Chase (301) 654-5858 - www.cartier.com
2005
September, a major U.N. conference is conveningin New York to evaluate progress toward theinternationally agreed Millennium DevelopmentGoals to reduce poverty. And this December, tradenegotiators will gather in Hong Kong to wrangleonce more over how rich-world agricultural sub-sidies harm poor-world farmers.
No single event of the past year was morenotable than the tsunami that pounded the shoresof many of Asia’s poorest countries, washing awaywhole villages in India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, andThailand. Perhaps not since the Rwandan genocidehave so many died so quickly. Images of the tragedyprovoked an unprecedented $12 billion tide ofcharity—at once showcasing the West’s generosity
76 Foreign Policy
W hen historians distill the firstdecade of this new millen-nium, the relationshipsbetween rich and poor
nations will be a dominant theme. Which richcountries advanced development? Whichones didn’t? How did national policiesaffect poor people working hard to improvetheir lives? To help answer these questions,the Center for Global Development andForeign Policy teamed up three yearsago to create the Commitment to Devel-opment Index (cdi)—a measure of how thepolicies of rich countries help or hinder the poor.
Much has happened in relations between richand poor since last year’s index. In July, theGroup of Eight (G-8) industrialized nations final-ized a deal in Gleneagles, Scotland, to drop thedebt of 18 developing nations. Days before theG-8 summit began, millions of music fansthronged to “Live 8” concerts organized aroundthe world to encourage the leaders to act. In
Copyright 2005, Center for Global Development and
the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
All rights reserved. Foreign Policy is a registered
trademark owned by the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace.
The third annual CGD/FP Commitment to Development Index ranks the
generosity of 21 rich nations on how they help or hinder the poor. The rich
hand out vast sums of foreign aid, but they also put up enormous barriers to
trade. They self lessly send soldiers to keep the peace, but then sell arms to
Third World thugs. In the end, are the rich doing more harm than good?
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September | October 2005 77
and sparking a lively debate about whether, as a nationof unparalleled wealth and power, the United States isstingy or generous.
But how far do such outpourings of charity andsympathy really go? The debt relief deal, thoughwelcome, will only generate $750 million a year innew foreign aid—that’s a 1 percent increase in totalaid, assuming governments do not take the moneyout of the budgets of existing aid programs. As sig-nificant as the enormous outpouring of funds wasfollowing the tsunami, it merits little more than afootnote in any full accounting of the way that richcountries affect the poor on a daily basis. It is for thisreason that the cdi ranks 21 nations by assessingtheir decisions across seven major domains of gov-ernment action: foreign aid, trade, investment, migra-tion, environment, security, and technology. The
index grades wealthy nations on their policy stance,not their absolute impact. For example, the Unit-ed States gives far more foreign aid than theNetherlands, but far less when compared to thesize of its economy. On the other hand, Dutchtrade barriers are higher than America’s—andthough they matter less than the barriers to thegiant U.S. economy, they are penalized more.
The biggest policy change that this year’s indextakes into account occurred on New Year’s Day,2005, when the United States, the European Union,and Canada abolished their quotas on fabric andclothing imports, as required under the GeneralAgreement on Tariffs and Trade. Textile workers,factory owners, and politicians in North Americaand Europe worried that the West would soon beflush with cheap clothes from China. That concern
More Than Money:Best
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Commitment to Development Index 2005
12.38.79.82.5
10.82.14.93.03.45.62.91.96.02.84.15.42.61.65.62.81.4
5.95.95.87.31.08.85.85.85.75.97.37.23.35.95.85.85.86.15.65.8
-0.2
5.56.85.56.55.83.45.93.06.78.17.66.74.65.56.05.05.26.82.53.65.1
5.35.76.46.54.97.12.5
10.56.82.84.94.7
10.51.42.72.95.12.53.21.81.8
6.56.66.45.44.25.96.16.56.77.94.34.04.76.76.26.35.15.45.96.33.7
7.26.85.28.58.57.86.64.73.82.13.56.21.66.42.83.63.64.16.15.82.8
4.45.85.35.05.25.16.34.64.74.66.34.73.85.36.24.55.45.32.83.25.0
6.76.66.46.05.85.85.45.45.45.35.35.04.94.94.84.84.74.54.54.22.8
123
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10101213
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78 Foreign Policy
Some of these events serve as reminders of thehuge power gap between rich and poor countries.Others, more interestingly, reflect new tensions arisingfrom developing countries’ becoming more assertivein the pursuit of their rights. World Trade Organiza-tion talks have stalled, for instance, partly because Indiaand Brazil flexed their diplomatic muscle. There is agrowing danger that stiffer competition from Chinaand India, along with concern about mounting envi-ronmental pollution from these two giants, will raisedoubts about the benefits of development itself.
But rich countries should welcome developmentgains in poorer countries because it is good in itself andbecause development serves the interests of rich coun-tries, too. Just as it was better for Spain that its north-ern neighbors escaped the poverty of the Dark Ages,so too would it be better if its southern neighbors inNorth Africa emerged from their present travails.
Poor countries must take the lead in their owndevelopment—only rarely in history have suchadvances been forced by outsiders. Yet, in many ways,rich and powerful countries control the environmentin which poorer countries operate. Smart calls bySouth Korean technocrats in the 1960s triggered a
was shared by Bangladesh’s workers, factory own-ers, and politicians, who long benefited fromguaranteed, if limited, access to Western markets.Nevertheless, the index rewards these countries’ending the quotas. Meanwhile, negotiations torevise the World Trade Organization’s rulesfoundered, thanks in part to squabbles over mas-sive agricultural subsidies and high import barri-ers in Europe and America, which artificially propup their domestic farms at the expense of much-poorer farmers elsewhere.
An equally historic event that did not changeCDI results was the entry into force of the KyotoProtocol on global climate change. The eventhighlighted the continuing refusal of Australiaand the United States, lone among the index’s 21countries, to ratify Kyoto on grounds that it putsno emissions limits on developing countries, suchas India and China. Large developing countriescountered that the rich countries that created theglobal warming problem ought to take the lead insolving it. The result: stalemate on the groundwhile the nations least prepared to cope with cli-mate change risk huge losses.
[ Ranking the Rich ]
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4.05.74.64.04.44.63.84.95.14.65.64.45.34.75.46.62.86.86.26.05.25.0
4.46.24.74.24.84.94.05.15.34.65.74.55.34.55.36.72.86.86.05.74.95.1
4.76.45.34.54.95.04.25.35.44.85.84.55.44.85.46.62.86.76.05.84.95.2
0.70.70.70.50.50.40.40.40.30.20.20.10.10.10.00.00.0
-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.3
+0.2
111446
6
6
9101012121215151518191921
SpainSweden
United Kingdom
Italy
Portugal
United StatesGreece
Canada
FinlandFrance
Norway
IrelandAustriaBelgium
Germany
NetherlandsJapan
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September | October 2005 79
development miracle. But that miracle wouldhave been impossible without access to the mar-kets and technologies of wealthier nations.
The same is true today. That’s why the cdifocuses on the intersection of actions and poli-cies. And, if one analyzes the crosscurrents ofdevelopment during the past year, Denmarkemerges as the clear winner. The Danes top theindex thanks to an ample and high-quality
foreign aid program, steady contributions toU.N. and nato peacekeeping operations, andtheir declining greenhouse gas emissions. Butsadly, in all but three policy areas, even Den-mark only earns an average score (near 5.0).That means that no country in the index canrest on its laurels. In the year ahead, everynation in the index can do more to help thosemost in need.
The More Things ChangeThe big picture in this year’s index is one of little change. That’s not surprising. Government poli-
cies usually change slowly. Trade policy, for example, is mainly the result of painstaking inter-national negotiations and, accordingly, does not turn on a dime.
The average cdi score, when adjusted for changes in the index over time, has climbed just atenth of a point a year since the index was launched in 2003. The scores of 14 countries rose between2003 and 2005, while the scores of only four declined. Several pieces of good news are behind the gains.Britain, Greece, Norway, Switzerland, and the United States are giving away more aid. Canada, theEuropean Union, and the United States ended quotas on imports of textiles and clothing. Belgium,Denmark, Spain, and Sweden curtailed prohibitions that prevented pension funds from investingin developing countries. Manycountries continue to phase outozone-depleting substances.Austria, Italy, and Portugal,among others, adopted policiesaimed at limiting illegal tropi-cal timber imports.
The United States saw alarge gain in its security score,but not because of the war onterror. Rather, the multibillion-dollar arms sales to Saudi Arabiathat were common in the late1990s receded into the past, andthe cdi gives less weight to olderarms exports. In fact, one factorthat did not elevate the Americanand British tally was the conflictin Iraq: The cdi only rewardsmilitary actions that areapproved by an internationalbody such as the U.N. SecurityCouncil or nato.C
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U.S. Tariff Revenue$1.87 billion
U.S. Tsunami Aid$908 million
Sri Lanka $262 million
Thailand $492 million
India $522 million
Indonesia $591 million
80 Foreign Policy
Last December’s Asian tsunami producedspellbinding television clips, striking awe in
millions of people living in rich countries thou-sands of miles away. As awe turned into empa-thy, private charities raised nearly $5 billion inaid for tsunami victims, while governmentspledged more than $6 billion.
Yet, the tsunami was little more than ablip in the ongoing saga of international devel-opment. Otherwise preventable deaths causedby hiv/aids, childhood diarrhea, and otherdiseases found mainly in poor countries takea death toll equivalent to last year’s tsunamievery month.
Pledges of foreign government aid (evenassuming these promises are met) should bekept in perspective. Last year, the United StatesTreasury raised $1.87 billion in revenue fromtariffs imposed on imports from the fourmajor tsunami-affected countries—India,Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. That istwice the $908 million in aid the U.S. Congressapproved in May. In effect, the United States
A Tidal Wave of Tariffs
will recoup its entire aid package to tsuna-mi victims within six months. If rich coun-tries really want to commit themselves toimproving the lives of citizens in tsunami-affected nations, they should end these taxesand other protectionist barriers as part of thecurrent Doha Round of international tradenegotiations.
CH
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[ Ranking the Rich ]
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
App
x. V
alu
e o
f Wea
pon
Sys
tem
s
2001 2002 2003
United States
France
Britain
Putting weapons in the hands ofdespots can increase both repression
at home and the temptation for militaryadventures abroad. When the weaponsare sold instead of handed out, theysiphon money that could be better spenton, say, teachers or transit systems. Ofcourse, arms exports are not always bad.Countries need guns as well as butter—arming a police force, for instance, canstrengthen the rule of law. So the cdionly penalizes arms exports to govern-ments that are deemed undemocratic andheavy military spenders, and exports tothe poorest countries are penalized most.
Eight rich nations can claim perfectlyclean hands, including Japan, which exports noweapons to developing countries. The largest armsdealers to poor nations are Britain, France, and theUnited States, the countries that have done the mostto arm the Middle East and South Asia, shippingweapons to such places as Egypt, Jordan, Oman,Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. These countries’
Exporting Conflict
neighborhoods are dangerous, and some arguethat nations there need weapons for self-defense.But does arming local despots make a neigh-borhood safer? More likely, it reduces regionalsecurity, retards investment, and undermines thebillions of dollars in traditional development aidflowing to these countries.
Sparing ChangeThe cdi rewards countries that encourage charitable donations through tax deductions and cred-
its. In all index countries, even the United States, public giving dwarfs private giving. This chartcompares government aid and private giving on a daily, per person basis in select nations.
Arms Exports to Undemocratic NationsWith Heavy Military Spending
Sources:
United StatesUnited KingdomSweden
NetherlandsJapanDenmark89¢19¢
1¢
67¢
5¢
73¢
1¢29¢
2¢15¢
6¢
Government Aid
Government Aid
Private Giving
Private Giving
Government Aid
Government Aid
Private Giving
Private Giving
Government Aid
Government Aid
Private Giving
Private Giving
1¢
September | October 2005 81
(in m
illion
s of
U.S
. dol
lars
)
Denm
ark
Neth
erla
nds
Swed
en
Austr
alia No
rway
Finla
nd
Austr
ia
Germ
any
Unite
d Ki
ngdo
m
Cana
da
Unite
d St
ates
Switz
erla
nd
Portu
gal
Fran
ce
Belgi
um
Spai
n
Italy
Irela
nd
Gree
ce Japa
n
(as
a p
erc
en
tage
of
the p
op
ula
tion
att
en
din
g ch
urc
h a
t le
ast
on
ce a
week)
10
20
30
40
50
60
CDI 2005 Rank
1 2 3 4 5 7 7 7 10 1210 13 13 15 15 17 18 18 20 21
Ch
urc
h A
tten
da
nce
82 Foreign Policy
Trusting Church or StateIt’s often said that
one should love thyneighbor as one lovesoneself. The cdi meas-ures whether richstates fulfill this com-mandment. Interestingenough, countrieswhere fewer people goto church score higherin the index. Or, inother words, wherethere is more preach-ing, there is less practicing. Just 3 percent of Danes,who rank at the top of the cdi , attend church at leastonce a week, according to the World Values Survey,which tracks social and cultural changes worldwide.In second-place Netherlands, church attendance standsat 14 percent, while in third-ranked Sweden, a mere7 percent of the population goes to church once aweek. At the opposite extreme is Ireland, which ranks
18th out of 21 cdicountries, but wherechurch attendancestands at 65 percent.
The source ofthis pattern may bewhere people puttheir faith—whetherin government bod-ies or religious insti-tutions. The Nether-lands and Nordicnations are small
and homogeneous, and they maintain small gapsbetween rich and poor domestically. As a result,citizens seem to place more trust in elected officialsto represent their interests, and, in turn, have amore activist development agenda. They rankhighly thanks in no small part to generous foreignaid programs—and an apparent faith in theirgovernment’s ability to do good.
How Righteous Are the Rich?
Source: World Values Survey; Note: Data not available for New Zealand. DAV
ID A
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[ Ranking the Rich ]
A comparison of CDI rank to church attendance
United States
Austria
Germany
Japan
Switzerland
5,375,000
326,000
833,000
-110,000
331,000
Change in Number of Unskilled Immigrants,1990-2000
Percentage Who Think Nationals Should Be Hired over Immigrants
Country
80%
66%
89%
71%
55%
Change in Unskilled Immigrants as a
Percentage of Population,1990-2000
4%
1%
-0.1%
5%
2%
September | October 2005 83
[ Want to Know More? ]For the details of the 2005 CGD/FP Commitment to Development Index, see “The Commitmentto Development Index: 2005 Edition,” by David Roodman, available at www.cgdev.org. The Website contains reports on each of the index’s 21 countries, as well as background papers organizedby policy area: Roodman on foreign aid, William R. Cline on trade, Theodore H. Moran on invest-ment, Elizabeth Grieco and Kimberly A. Hamilton on migration, Amy Cassara and DanielPrager on environment, Michael E. O’Hanlon and Adriana Lins de Albuquerque on security, andKeith Maskus on technology.
The Migration Policy Institute and the World Resources Institute, two organizations that sig-nificantly contribute to the index, are excellent sources of additional information. The WorldBank’s new Global Monitoring Report 2005 looks at what rich countries can do to support devel-opment. In Trade Policy and Global Poverty (Washington: Institute for International Econom-ics and cgd, 2004), Cline puts current international trade negotiations in perspective.
»For links to relevant Web sites, access to the FP Archive, and a comprehensive index of related Foreign Policy articles, go to www.ForeignPolicy.com.
From Britain in the 18th century toChina in the 21st, economic devel-
opment has always entailed large move-ments of people from poor, rural areas toprosperous, urban ones. According to theUnited Nations, 175 million peopleworldwide—1 in 35—are migrants, mean-ing they no longer live in the countrywhere they were born.
The cdi rewards openness to migrants(particularly the unskilled), who take upresidence elsewhere to work, send homemoney, pick up skills, and, sometimes, return homewith new ideas. But how prepared are rich nationsto accept migrants? Not very, according to theWorld Values Survey, which shows that immi-grants often flock to where they are least wel-come. In this year’s index, the two countries that“imported” the most unskilled labor for their size,Austria and Switzerland, are also among the mostconcerned about the impact of immigrants. Eightypercent of Austrians and 71 percent of Swiss agreedthat, when jobs are scarce, employers should givepriority to nationals over immigrants.
For now, economics appears to havetrumped cultural prejudice in Western Europe,whose aging societies increasingly depend onnew arrivals to fill jobs in child-care, con-struction, and other industries. Many Euro-peans may oppose that trend, but stoppingthe flow of migrants would cause great eco-nomic harm. Just look to Japan, which is theleast sympathetic to immigrants in the WorldValues Survey, and whose economic stagnationmay very well continue thanks to its agingworkforce and tight borders.
Workers Needed, Not Wanted
Sources:
84 Foreign Policy
Riches under foot: InAngola, Sierra Leone, andthe Democratic Republic ofthe Congo, miners work forfood but receive no wages.People dig, sieve, andwash bags of rock and dirtin 12-hour shifts, and themines almost never close.
a trail ofdiamonds
W I D EA N G L E
September | October 2005 85
It takes only weeks for a diamond, once uncovered in an African mine, to travel
to India to be cut and polished and land in the showrooms of Paris or New York.
The journey reveals some of globalization’s greatest fault lines—inequality, child
labor, and outsourcing—and the people who too often fall through the cracks.
Photographs by Kadir van Lohuizen
[ Wide Angle ]
86 Foreign Policy
Faith corrupted: ManyCongolese diamond traders,like Pastor Mbaya Kafui(top), are also clergymen. “I started my own church,”says Kafui. “About 10,000people visit three times aweek. They sell their diamonds to me after orbefore service.”
Boomtowns: Life revolvesaround the diamond trade inCafunfo, Angola—a towngenerally acknowledged toboast the most valuablediamonds in the world.
September | October 2005 87
Supply side: In the city ofSurat, 150 miles north ofBombay, nearly a millionpeople are employed bythe diamond industry.Many sleep on the factoryfloor. Seventy percent ofthe world’s production isnow concentrated here.
Passage to India: The cargo isloaded onto the next flight toAntwerp (left). It was once thediamond capital of the world,with 15,000 workers. Now thereare about 1,500. The stones willtouch down only briefly beforebeing flown to India.
88 Foreign Policy
[ Wide Angle ]
Economies of scale:Chiman Choudhry (top), 60,and Yogesh (right), 13,both moved to Surat towork as diamond polishers.They each work 12-hourdays and earn $60 amonth for their labor.
September | October 2005 89
For richer or poorer: Lastyear, grooms spent nearly$4.5 billion on engagementrings. “Clients usually makean appointment,” saysPhilippe Schaeffer (top left),a Paris jeweler. “They goaway and think about it—then they come back.”
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Washington’s News, Traffic and Weather Station…WTOP Radio
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92 Foreign Policy
[ A R G U M E N T ]
In Green CompanyIf Kyoto is so dangerous, why is corporate America already playing by its rules?
By Stuart Eizenstat and Rubén Kraiem
To hear President George W. Bush tell it, the United
States backed out of the Kyoto Protocol because the pact would do irreparable harm to U.S. businesses.
At $400 billion, the costs were too high, he said. By excluding the developing world, the agreement would
put U.S. companies at a disadvantage. If the agreement were enacted, Bush warned, nearly 5 million workers
would watch their jobs slip away. But, if all of this is true, why are many in corporate America already
starting to comply with Kyoto, which now binds 141nations in reducing their greenhouse gas emissions?
Many U.S. multinationals are already complyingwith Kyoto’s emission targets because they are subjectto the agreement in key markets where they operate.Although their affiliates in developing countries, suchas China and India, are not bound by emission caps,American firms operating in the European Union(eu), Canada, Japan, and other Kyoto-compliantcountries are. Europe’s emissions caps apply to morethan 12,000 industrial facilities, many of them ownedby American companies. Even if U.S. companies docomply with such foreign regulations, many still facethe unpalatable choice of either pursuing differentpolicies in different places, which is inefficient andexpensive, or swallowing the costs of improvementsin the United States. Meanwhile, the incentives forbeing Kyoto-friendly are already enormous. To put itin perspective, consider that, despite the strategicimportance of China, American companies invested
twice as much capital in 2003 in tiny Ireland as in allof China. U.S. corporations have nearly $1 trillion indirect investments in the eu. And Canada, which willsoon mandate improvements in carbon efficiency forall large emitters of greenhouse gases, is still the largestsingle U.S. trading partner. At $200 billion, the Amer-ican industrial presence in Canada dwarfs U.S. invest-ments in any non-Kyoto country.
Corporate America’s incentives are changingcloser to home, too. The world’s major automak-ers—including the United States’ “Big Three”(General Motors, Ford Motor Company, andDaimlerChrysler ag)—agreed to reduce the green-house gas emissions of their fleet in Canada by 5.3million metric tons by the end of 2010. Ifautomakers plan to produce cars for the Canadi-an market that meet these ambitious goals, it doesnot make much economic sense to produce carswith different emissions standards for the U.S.market. Even Chinese fuel efficiency standardswere recently tightened and are now actually morestringent than those of the United States. And asthe Bush administration ignores concerns over cli-mate change, about 30 U.S. states have already
Stuart Eizenstat, who headed the U.S. delegation to the
Kyoto Protocol negotiations, and Rubén Kraiem are partners
at Covington & Burling.
adopted some form of restrictive climate policy. California now has legislation to limit greenhouse
gas emissions and other states are following its lead.Eight states’ attorneys general, including New York’sEliot Spitzer, are suing five large utilities for theirgreenhouse gas emissions. A number of northeasternand mid-Atlantic states have formed a Regional Green-house Gas Initiative that will impose emission caps onmajor utilities. And in June, the United StatesSenate adopted a resolution calling for“mandatory, market-based lim-its” on greenhouse gas emis-sions, modifying the 1997Byrd-Hagel Resolutionopposing a climatechange agreementthat excludes thedevelopingworld.
Global busi-ness leaders arenot waiting forenvironmentalmandates to behanded downfrom Washing-ton. JeffreyImmelt, the chair-man of ge, recent-ly committed hiscompany to reducingits greenhouse emissionsby 1 percent by 2012. To dothat, ge will need to reduce itsemissions per average unit of prod-uct by nearly a third—a major accomplish-ment. The company will also invest as much as $1.5billion annually in the research and developmentof green technologies and, as a result, expects todouble its annual revenues from clean technologyproducts and services to about $20 billion. U.S.companies such as DuPont and Alcoa have alreadyput in place their own Kyoto-like emission reduc-tion programs, with internal emissions trading andincentives for managers who meet the desired tar-gets. Several years ago, bp pioneered the idea andhas pocketed remarkable savings.
Awareness of the effects of climate change is rip-pling through other industries as well. Swiss Re, theworld’s second-largest reinsurer, estimates that the
annual economic impact of natural disasters maydouble in the next 10 years because of climatechange, costing insurers $30 to $40 billion a year.Allianz Global Investors, one of the world’s largestfinancial services companies, recently announced itwould take climate change risks into account in mak-ing insurance and underwriting decisions. Institu-tional investors are also assessing the risks associated
with greenhouse gases. The Carbon Dis-closure Project, a coalition of 143
institutional investors with$20 trillion in assets, is
collecting informationon emissions and
climate-relatedpolicies from
the world’s top500 compa-nies. Eventu-al ly, WallStreet willfactor thecosts ofcomplyingwith emis-sions targets
into the priceof corporate
debt and equi-ties. The United
States also standsto lose leadership in
the creation of profitableemissions trading markets
as they gravitate to foreign finan-cial centers.
American businesses that refuse to accept that welive in a carbon-constrained world are living onborrowed time. Soon it will no longer be eco-nomical for the holdouts to view the United Statesas a regulatory safe haven. Compliance with theKyoto Protocol will likely spur countries such asJapan and Britain to subsidize renewable energy andother emission technologies, forcing U.S. companiesthat might have been market leaders to become con-sumers of new technology developed by others. Thereis little chance the Bush administration will sudden-ly reverse course and endorse Kyoto. Fortunately, agrowing number of U.S. businesses are not waitingto take their cues from Washington.
September | October 2005 93
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[ A R G U M E N T ]
The ProtectionRacket
Development activists finally realize that free trade is not evil. When do they plan to tell the poor?
By Arvind Panagariya
It has been encouraging to watch advocates for the
world’s poor become more sophisticated about the benefits of trade liberalization in recent years. It is now
rare to find groups, such as Public Citizen, that are against all forms of liberalization. Most, including Oxfam,
Christian Aid, and ActionAid, agree that poor countries would benefit if rich countries lowered their trade
barriers. What remains puzzling is why these same organizations resist following their logic any further. Why
do those speaking on behalf of the poor fail to real-ize that developing countries will also benefit fromtheir own liberalization? Why do so many otherwiseknowledgeable voices still recommend that develop-ing countries practice poor-world protectionism?
Development activists are slow to accept thatliberalization by poor countries—even if richcountries don’t respond in kind—increases exportsand thereby strengthens developing-countryeconomies. For instance, when Bangladesh low-ers its trade barriers, it makes the domestic mar-ket less profitable in relation to the world market,therefore encouraging its people to export more.Opening the door to world markets can also usherin new technology and bring out the best in a coun-try’s entrepreneurs by encouraging competition
with the world’s most efficient suppliers of high-quality products.
South Korea’s and India’s roads to developmentare good examples of the choice many poor coun-tries face today. Until 1960, the two countries triedto grow by protecting fragile national industries.Then South Korea switched to an export-orientedstrategy and proceeded to dismantle trade restrictionsacross the board. The results weren’t long in com-ing. Seoul produced impressive annual growth ratesof 23.7 percent in exports, 18 percent in imports, and6.3 percent in per capita income between 1961 and1980. The country’s exports as a proportion of grossdomestic product (gdp) jumped from 5.3 to 33.1percent during the same period.
India, on the other hand, toyed with liberalizationin the 1960s but never got serious about encouragingits exporters or eliminating restrictions on imports.The government kept an array of domestic industries
Arvind Panagariya is professor of economics at Columbia
University.
on life support, without regard to their inefficiencyor comparative advantage. India’s trade regime wasso repressive that (excluding cereal and oil) its importsas a percentage of gdp fell from 7 percent in 1958to just 3 percent in 1976. Despite stable politicsand a highly capable bureaucracy, India saw its percapita gdp grow at a slothful 1.1 percent between1961 and 1980.
It’s tough to find an example of a developingcountry that has grownrapidly while maintaininghigh trade barriers. Somehave argued that India’sand China’s recent growthspurts buck the trend.True, protectionist policieswere in place when thetwo countries began togrow rapidly, but they sus-tained their booms onlythrough massive trade lib-eralization. And becausethe liberalization occurredover at least 20 years,the two countries man-aged to escape some ofthe most painful socialside effects.
Unable to musterempirical support fortheir positions, today’sapologists for protec-tionism contend thatagriculture—now thecritical trade issue—issomehow different. Successive Indian commerceministers, for example, have argued that they can-not risk the lives of the 650 million Indians whodepend on agriculture for their livelihood. Oxfamhas made similar arguments about countries suchas Vietnam and Ghana. Acknowledging that eco-nomic liberalization must proceed gradually andwith proper safety nets for dislocated farmershardly supports the protectionist position. Thereis no reason to believe that the benefits that flowfrom competition in every other industry do notexist in agriculture, too. Yes, rich countries mas-sively subsidize their own agriculture. But poorcountries lose from their trade barriers with orwithout rich-country subsidies.
Chile’s agricultural exports, for example, grewfrom $1.2 billion to $4.9 billion between 1991 and2001 as it liberalized. Even India, which has only half-heartedly opened its agricultural sector by removingexport restrictions and eliminating exchange-rateovervaluation, saw its agricultural exports rise from$3.4 billion in 1991 to $7.4 billion in 2004. Impor-tantly, this expansion occurred without a significantreduction in agricultural trade barriers in developed-
country markets. It’s an illusion to
believe that rich coun-tries will simply lift theirtrade barriers withoutdemanding the same oftheir trading partners inthe developing world.Recent history is evidenceenough. In 1965, devel-oped countries committedto eliminating trade barri-ers that were particularlyharmful to pooreconomies. Yet, with thedeveloping countries opt-ing out of direct negotia-tions, barriers to importsof agricultural products,textiles, and clothing roserather than declined. It wasonly when developingcountries joined theUruguay Round of tradetalks through what is nowthe World Trade Organi-
zation that developed countries abolished import quo-tas on textiles and clothing.
Like South Korea and India before them, today’spoorest countries face a choice. They can either waitin vain for rich countries to unilaterally drop theirtrade barriers, take the time to negotiate mutualconcessions, or liberalize their own markets—regard-less of what the rich countries do. Getting developedcountries to simultaneously liberalize will allowdeveloping countries to multiply the benefits of theirown liberalization, but that welcome prospectshouldn’t be cause for delay. Unilateralism may beharmful when it comes to matters of peace and war,but when it comes to trade and development, it canbe all to the good.
September | October 2005 95
Free trade is a two-way street.
AP W
IDEW
OR
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When Nepal opened upto the outside world 50years ago with the over-
throw of the Rana dynasty, wordquickly spread about this idyllicland, its stupendous mountains,and its tranquility and rich cul-tural heritage. That—and theopenly available hashish—waswhat drew hippies to the capitalof Katmandu during the 1960s.Then came the trekkers and back-packers, who found even thepoverty here photogenic.
So when the Maoist insurgencyturned increasingly violent in 2000,it seemed as though editors innewsrooms in London, HongKong, and New York couldn’tquite believe that there was troublein Shangri-La. And even if therewere, they believed it would beover soon enough. It was onlyafter Nepal’s crown prince mur-dered his entire family as well ashimself in a massacre at the royalpalace on the night of June 1, 2001,that parachute journalists whocame to cover the story realized
96 Foreign Policy
IN OTHER WORDS[ R E V I E W S O F T H E W O R L D ’ S M O S T N O T E W O R T H Y B O O K S ]
something was seriously wrong inthe mountainous kingdom.
More than 11,000 people havebeen killed in the past nine years,and, because of the number of dis-appearances of its citizens, Nepal isnow mentioned in the same breathas Sierra Leone and Rwanda. OnFeb. 1, 2005, King Gyanendra, whobecame the constitutional monarchafter the massacre, sacked the prime
minister and seized executive pow-ers, claiming the incompetence ofelected leaders was hindering hisarmy’s counterinsurgency opera-tions. Political leaders were jailedand strict censorship imposed.Overnight, Nepal’s press went frombeing one of the freest in the worldto having armed soldiers sitting innewsrooms vetting every story.
The person with a ringside seatto all the mayhem is NarayanWagle, editor of Katmandu’s mostpopular Nepali-language newspa-per, Kantipur. From an early point
in his career, Wagle wasn’t inter-ested in reporting on the corridorsof power in the capital, like hislaid-back colleagues. He’d ratherbe trekking in remote corners ofthis rugged country, bringing sto-ries about the neglect and apathy ofofficialdom to the notice of a gov-ernment in faraway Katmandu.
I have known Narayan Waglefor 10 years, and I’ve followed his
career through his bylines fromfar-flung places. His stories werealways exclusive and original—like the one of an impending foodshortage in the remote district ofHumla in 1994 because of heavysnow on the passes, which forcedthe government to rush aid beforestarvation hit.
As a fellow editor, I empathizewith Wagle’s feeling of inadequacyabout journalism’s capacity to pro-vide a true picture of our nation’scurrent trauma. We present end-less reported pieces, columns, and
Nepal’s Terror Alert By Kunda Dixit
Kunda Dixit is editor and copublisher
of the Nepali Times in Katmandu.
Palpasa CaféBy Narayan Wagle245 pages, Kathmandu:Publication Nepalaya, 2005(in Nepali)
Somehow what isn’t getting through in the headlines is the
conflict’s brutalization of society. Nepal’s social fabric is
being torn apart, and all we journalists are doing is
reporting it as if it were a crime beat.
editorials, but somehow what isn’tgetting through is the conflict’sbrutalization of society. Nepal’ssocial fabric is being torn apart,and all we journalists are doingis reporting it as if it were a crimebeat. “Many things don’t fit intothe news format, so, paradoxical-ly, you have to turn to fiction totel l the truth,” Wagle says,explaining what prompted his firstnovel, Palpasa Café.
Facts are often more dramaticthan fiction in societies wrackedby messy conflict. In Nepal, everystory of landmines killing chil-dren, rebels abducting students,young women disappearing at acheckpoint is a heart-wrenchingfamily tragedy that the rest of thecountry must hear. Instead, theyare often reported in a mannerthat turns such victims into mean-ingless statistics. We rarely see,hear, or share the pain and per-sonal loss of the bereaved.
executed by Maoists, a bombgoing off somewhere. We are justchroniclers of carnage.”
The plot weaves the fragile andundeclared love between Drishyaand Palpasa—a first-generationNepali American who hasreturned to the land of her parentsafter becoming fed up with post-9/11 racial stereotyping in theUnited States—into the artist’sreunion with his old friend, Sid-dhartha, who is now a guerrilla.When Siddhartha comes to Kat-mandu in the aftermath of theroyal massacre to seek shelter inDrishya’s house, the two argueover whether the goals of revolu-tion justify the means:
“How can you ever justify vio-lence?” Drishya asks.
Siddhartha replies: “Withoutdestroying, you can’t build anew.”
“But people are dying; theycrave for peace,” Drishya pleads.
“The people don’t need peace,
September | October 2005 97
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Palpasa Café is a fictionalizedaccount of several actual events, ofthe lives and deaths of ordinaryNepalis caught in the grips of war.Wagle makes an early cameo as theeditor of a paper in Katmandu whohears of the abduction of a friendby soldiers. That much is fact, butin the next chapter, Wagle turnshis disappeared friend into animaginary artist named Drishya,and the rest of the book is theartist’s story told in his own voice.Wagle admits that much of whatDrishya goes through is semi-autobiographical.
Early on, Wagle offers a hintabout why he is writing the book.As he takes dictation from a dis-trict reporter about another fire-fight in the mountains, he thinks:“Nothing new here. Every day itis the same. Tomorrow’s paperwill be the same as this morning’s.The same stories of an army patrolbeing ambushed, suspected spy
[ In Other Words ]
they need justice,” says his Maoistfriend. “If there is justice, therewill be peace.”
“But you are carrying outinjustices in the name of justice,”says Drishya one last time. Butthe two can’t even agree to dis-agree. It’s clear that Wagle isdeeply troubled about the impactof the fighting on the nationalmind-set, and he is appalled bythe Maoist methods: the brutality,the intolerance of dissent, and theuse of terror as a weapon.
Drishya travels to his home vil-lage to meet Siddhartha and finds ittorn apart by war, the Nepali psy-che irreversibly scarred by the vio-lence. Page after page, it is all there:the atrocities, executions, disap-pearances, abductions, landmines,and people caught in the crossfirethat we read about every day. Butbecause these events happen tocharacters we have grown to knowintimately, the incidents seem morereal than the headlines.
Not only is this novel as freshas an open wound, it is also writ-ten in a nonlinear style that isalmost experimental in the worldof Nepali fiction. Wagle’s Nepalilanguage is simple and colloquial,and his voice is genuine and sin-cere. Although Drishya’s characteris unnecessarily abrasive, Palpasacomes across as an authentic dias-pora child caught between lovefor her motherland and alienationfrom her adopted home.
Sooner or later, some outsiderwas going to write a novel aboutNepal’s Maoist insurgency and thecountry’s present turmoil and tran-sition. Lucky for us, NarayanWagle beat them to it and has pro-duced what is essentially an under-stated but powerful anti-war novelthat will be read and talked aboutfor years. It drags us beyondShangri-La and forces us to look atthe abyss below.
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ture about what’s happeningbehind closed doors. Still, evenappearances can be revealing.Accompanying Putin on his trav-els throughout Russia, Kolesnikovdiscovers that the Potemkin Vil-lage reflex is alive and well: Justbefore Putin’s arrival in small-town Russia, provincial officialshurry to re-asphalt roads, switchon long-dormant fountains, andsupply basic utilities to long-neg-lected townspeople.
On one of his visits to a region-al backwater, Putin makes a pointof inviting people from the nearbyarea to a restaurant for a chat.
Kolesnikov is mystified, at first,when the president’s staff explainsthat the name of the meeting placewill be kept secret until the lastminute. Why? To prevent the localgovernment from stacking the del-egation of “ordinary folk” withlocal officials. In a meeting withstudents, Putin confesses that hespends much of his time developingalternate sources of information tocircumvent the “information block-ade” surrounding him. He doesn’teven have to explain that he meanshis own government. The kidsalready understand.
Kolesnikov cons is tent lyreports everything—from street-
level mishaps to the intrigues ofinternational summitry—with thesame tone of bemused irony. Hecatches Italian Prime Minister Sil-vio Berlusconi making faces atjournalists during a press confer-ence, and deftly analyzes the col-lision of American and Russiannotions of “casual dress” atCamp David. (Putin’s aides showup in black business suits, whiteshirts, and no ties.) Particularlyenjoyable is the often-surreal dia-logue between the Russian presi-dent and his fellow citizens; littlesnippets of real life that bring theplace back to me in all of its chip-
on-the-shoulder eccentricity. Putin,paying a visit to the old Russiancity of Staraya Ladoga, tours thelocal archeological museum. Hisguide, the museum’s director,explains that one of the place’sclaims to fame is a burial moundcontaining the remains of amedieval hero named Oleg theProphet. That’s not all, of course:
“One of our main sights hereis the underground passagesbeneath the fortress,” she sayswith pride.
“Could we take a look?” thepresident asks with interest.
“Unfortunately that’s not pos-sible,” she explains. “Like Oleg’s
100 Foreign Policy
Accompanying Putin on his travels throughout Russia,
Kolesnikov discovers that the Potemkin Village
reflex is alive and well.
[ In Other Words ]
Ya Putina Videl! (I Saw Putin!)By Andrei Kolesnikov479 pages, Moscow: EKSMOPress (in Russian)
Menya Putin Videl! (Putin Saw Me!) By Andrei Kolesnikov479 pages, Moscow: EKSMOPress (in Russian)
D uring his three years asKremlin correspondentfor the liberal business
daily Kommersant , AndreiKolesnikov kept close watch onthe everyday doings of RussianPresident Vladimir Putin. Now, ina collection of two books of morethan 800 pages of his reports from2001 to 2004, the journalist pres-ents a densely detailed view of thechanging definition of what itmeans to be a modern-day nation-al leader. We watch as Putin ban-ters, eats, interrogates, dutifullyhands out awards, meets withboneheaded government officials,schmoozes his peers at world sum-mits, and jawbones with ordinaryfolk. Throughout Ya Putina Videl!(I Saw Putin!) and Menya PutinVidel! (Putin Saw Me!), Kolesnikovregales us with crushing banality,mindless protocol, and occasionalmoments of genuine excitement.
To his credit, though, Kolesnikovis the first to assure us that he does-n’t know what’s really going on. Allhe sees are the president’s publicactivities, and he can only conjec-
Christian Caryl is Newsweek’s Tokyo
bureau chief and a former Moscow bureau
chief for the magazine.
Putin Always WinsBy Christian Caryl
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[ In Other Words ]
102 Foreign Policy
scarcely earns a contrary word.Early in the book, for example,Kolesnikov describes Putin’s meet-ing with the relatives of the ill-fated crew of the Kursk, thenuclear submarine that sank withall hands on board in the BarentsSea in the summer of 2000. (TheKursk account is part of a smallquantity of Kolesnikov’s pre-2001work included in the collection.)Kolesnikov, who was the onlyprint reporter allowed to attendthe meeting, portrays the event interms that could only warm thehearts of the president’s Kremlinhandlers. The account ends withthe words: “He left as the presi-dent of the same people whobefore the meeting had wanted totear him to pieces.”
Well, my own memories of theKursk disaster are rather different.I recall ordinary Muscovites bit-terly condemning Putin for hisdithering reaction to the news ofthe accident. For days, he refusedto leave his Black Sea vacation spotand even made announcementswearing sports clothes, a detail thatprompted much cynical commen-tary at the time. But Kolesnikovbasically gives him a pass on allcounts. Why? It’s hard to tell, butone is left with the feeling thatKolesnikov is an enthusiastic Putinfan—albeit often alienated by theexcesses of the personality cult sur-rounding the popular leader.
The campaign against the oli-garch Mikhail Khodorkovsky andthe Yukos oil company, Putin’spolicies in Chechnya, and, in par-ticular, the Kremlin’s crackdownon the press and democraticprocesses—none of it really fig-ures large in this telling. Smallwonder that Kolesnikov is said tobe one of the Kremlin’s favoriteauthors.
It’s a deficiency that’s especiallyrevealing considering Kolesnikov’s
grave, they haven’t been found yet.”The president nods sympa-
thetically.It’s a nice bit of reporting
that, among other things, per-fectly evokes the shifty quality ofmodern-day Russia’s effort tofashion a usable past . AsKolesnikov archly notes, StarayaLadoga, as an ancient epicenterof Russian civilization, makesfor a much more convenientsource of identity than the tra-ditional alternative of Kiev,which, nowadays, unfortunatelyhappens to be located in a dif-ferent country.
Kolesnikov also includes alovely comical piece about anarcane bit of Kremlin protocolthat demands that Putin and hisinterlocutor du jour enter theroom at the same moment so thatthey meet exactly in the center—forcing several leaders into falsestarts, embarrassed improvisa-tions, and so forth. Putin, ofcourse, has it down pat.
And that happens to be themain problem with this book.Putin always wins. In the vastmajority of situations, Putin’s for-midable gifts—including a prodi-gious memory and a fierce sense offocus—enable him to best most ofhis opponents. Still, that doesn’tmean that Vladimir Vladimirovichis infall ible by a long shot.Kolesnikov’s reports unavoidablydocument some of his greatestblunders—such as Putin’s offer offorcible circumcision to a Frenchjournalist who asked a bother-some question about Chechnya,for instance.
It’s not that Kolesnikov does-n’t know how to dish it out. Near-ly everyone else in the book (andthere must be hundreds of majorand minor characters altogether)gets raked over the gently glowingembers of his sarcasm. But Putin
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[ In Other Words ]
celebration of one of his Russianjournalist colleagues who “dares”to ask U.S. President George W.Bush some critical questions at apress conference. Near the end ofPutin Saw Me!, after the Russianpresident has accompanied the vis-iting Berlusconi to the opening ofan Italian company’s washingmachine factory in the Russian
boondocks, Kolesnikov gets achance to put some tough ques-tions to his own president. “Iwalked up and asked him whatwashing machine his family usesat home.” The Russian leaderdoesn’t know the answer, ofcourse. The line of questioningcontinues in much the same vein,with questions about Berlusconi’s
claims that he and Putin had acontest to kiss some of the femalefactory workers. All Putin canmuster in response is that Berlus-coni is a “big joker.” Exactly. Andit’s often hard to take jokers seri-ously—even when they havesomething important to say. So itis with Andrei Kolesnikov’s grandcomedy of Kremlin manners.
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Nearly 400 years after Miguel deCervantes wrote Don Quixote,the Spanish literary sector isthriving. FP spoke to JavierRioyo, the editor of Estravagario(a weekly book show on Spanishpublic television), about Spain’scurrent reading list.
FOREIGN POLICY: How wouldyou describe the cultural andreading environment in Spain?
Javier Rioyo: The Spanishwriter Mariano José de Larraonce said that writing in Spainmeant shedding tears. Later,during General Franco’s years,both reading and writing weresubject to censorship. Butreaders’ thirst continued toincrease. Now, in these fullydemocratic times, Spain isamong the countries with thehighest publishing activity inEurope, perhaps even too high,and reading is slowly gainingground against the dominanceof television, [in part, due tothe] high quality of our writers.
FP: Among Spanish novelistsand fiction writers, who arethe most popular?
JR: One of the most successful
authors is Arturo Pérez-Reverte,who combines high quality andthe ability to reach a big reader-ship, through such works as Elcapitán Alatriste (CaptainAlatriste) and La reina del sur(The Queen of the South).Other, more literary authorsthat sell well include JavierMarías, Manuel VázquezMontalbán, Javier Cercas, andAlmudena Grandes. The mostrecent big success story—fol-lowing Dan Brown’s foot-steps—is that of JuliaNavarro, who went from jour-nalism to fiction [with suchworks as La hermandad de laSábana Santa (TheBrotherhood of the HolyShroud)]. And there is the iso-lated case of Carlos Ruiz Zafón[La sombra del viento (TheShadow of the Wind)], who willhopefully continue his work.
FP: Do the Spanish Civil Warand Spain’s recent history stillarouse interest?
JR: In the realm of fiction, thesubject always attracted inter-est, beginning with ErnestHemingway’s novels and shorttales, for example. Finding reli-able books from a historical
point of view wasn’t as easy.Today, we are experiencing agenuine boom that includesserious scholars—such asCercas’s Soldiers of Salamis—and some ideological manipula-tors who serve right-wing inter-ests, including Pío Moa, who isreinventing Spanish history. Weare still battling with the idea of“the two Spains.”
FP: What can you say aboutformer Prime Minister JoséMaría Aznar’s works? His lat-est, Retratos y perfiles: deFraga a Bush (Portraits andProfiles: From Fraga to Bush)is one of the nonfiction top sell-ers of the moment.
JR: I don’t know what to say.... Imean, I do know what to say, but
I would rather not say it. Hisbooks are as manipulative asMoa’s but, in his case, they area document about himself, a cel-ebration of his own dreams ofbecoming a caudillo. Fortunately,he is already in the past, eventhough he never seems to betotally gone.
FP: Is Don Quixote still beingread?
JR: Four hundred years later, DonQuixote is a bestseller! It is thebest proof that cultural marketingsometimes makes people buy thebest novel of all time. It is a realpleasure. The only thing left is forpeople to actually read it.
Publish or Perish in SpainWhat They’re Reading
Interview: Natalia Herráiz, seniorstaff editor at FP Spain.
DIRECTORWATSON INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
BROWN UNIVERSITY
Brown University and the Board of Overseers of the Watson Institute for International Studies seek a distinguished scholar with policy-related experience and extensive experience in international studies to bethe next Director of the Institute. The Director provides intellectual leadership in this multi-disciplinary and multi-national research center that promotes the work of faculty, visiting scholars, practitioners, and students who analyze contemporary global problems and develop initiatives designed to address them. The Director has overall responsibility for the research direction in consultation with the faculty, and for strategic planning, budgetary oversight, fundraising and development, and external relations of the Institute, while serving as principal liaison with Brown University senior administration, Board ofOverseers, department chairs, research program directors, donors, government officials, and University trustees.
In 1986, Brown University’s Institute for International Studies was created to incorporate Brown’s Center for Foreign Policy Development and the university’s other international programs, and in 1991 the Institute was rededicated to honor Thomas J. Watson Jr., former chairman of IBM, and former ambassador to theSoviet Union. In January 2002, the Watson Institute moved into a large new building near the heart of the Brown University campus, which houses the Institute's research and support staff. Currently the Institute, with a substantial endowment and an annual budget of $5-6 million, has over 100 faculty and staff. These include both full-time Institute faculty and faculty with joint appointments in Brown University departments, visitors, and adjunct faculty from throughout the region. It contains four major researchprograms: Global Security; Global Environment; Political Economy and Development; and Politics, Culture, and Identity. The Institute—which involves faculty based both at the Institute and in a wide variety of Brown departments, including, among others, anthropology, economics, environmental sciences, history, political science, and sociology-- is closely integrated into the larger university community. Further details on the Institute can be found at www.watsoninstitute.org.
The successful candidate will have wide knowledge of contemporary global problems and regions of the world and administrative and managerial experience appropriate to an institute of the Watson’s Institute’s scope and caliber. The successful candidate is expected to bring an accomplished research record and/or policy experience appropriate for a Director of a leading international affairs institute in an academic setting. The Director reports to the Provost of Brown University with respect to university administrativematters. With respect to the goals and directions of the Institute the Director confers directly with both the Institute faculty and the Institute’s Board of Overseers, whose distinguished members provide valuable support of Institute activities including help with external relations. For appropriate candidates, a tenuredappointment may be made with an academic department at the University.
Review of candidates will begin October 15, 2005 and will continue until the Director is named.Applications should be sent to Brian W. Casey, Assistant Provost, Brown University at [email protected]. It should include a letter of intent, a curriculum vitae and names of fourreferences. Questions may be addressed to the search committee chair, Prof. David Kertzer, [email protected].
EEO/AA employer. Brown University is an equal opportunity employer and does not discriminate against any person because of race, color, sex, religion, age, national or ethnic origin, disability, status as a veteran, sexual orientation, gender identity, or gender expression.
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Applications must be received byDecember 1, 2005.
The Woodrow Wilson School alsooffers a two-year Master’s degree inPublic Affairs (M.P.A.) and aPh.D. degree program.
The Woodrow Wilson School’s M.P.P. program provides rising leaders in the international and domestic policy arenas an opportunity to expand their organizational skills and intellectual breadth to compete in an increasingly complex global environment.
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Spam DivideIn rich countries, unsolicited e-
mail, or spam, is a nuisance. Forpeople in poor countries, it’s a cost-ly threat to development. That’s the conclusion of a new report fromthe Organisation for Economic Co-operation andDeve lopment .“Spam won’t haltthe developmentof [informationtechnology]” inpoor countries,says Suresh Rama-subramanian, thereport’s authorand manager ofanti-spam oper-ations at HongKong-based Web mail
provider Outblaze, “but it willseverely retard it.”
In developing nations, bandwidthis expensive and connection speedsare often slow. Spammers can effec-tively bring a nation’s networkdown—or reduce it to a snail’s pace—by flooding people’s inboxes. Andlocal Internet service providers lack
the software or trained staffto do anything about it.
The impact spam ishaving on developingnations remains largelyunstudied, and Rama-
subramaniansays it’s hardto put a dol-
lar figure ondevelop-ing-coun-try losses,but it is
surely well into the millions of dollarseach year. What’s worse, thanks toweak technology laws, developingcountries are becoming havens forspamming operations from the Unit-ed States and Europe. For instance,American-born spammer StevenWorrell—who sends e-mails pro-moting pornography, gambling,and financial scams—maintains aFlorida address but runs his oper-ation from a server in Costa Rica.
How can developing nationsstop the flood? Software based onfree operating systems such as Linuxcould immediately halt as much as50 percent of poor-country spam.Ramasubramanian says that’s asolution that should be employedright away. Because bridging thedigital divide is useless if what lieson the other side is a pile of junkmail. —Elisabeth Eaves
108 Foreign Policy
IPods are everywhere. Look around the gym, theoffice, or the subway, and you’ll see one of the 15
million now in use around the world. The portablemusic players are so ubiquitous, thieves are using themto hide stolen goods in plain sight. How? Boastingdisk drives as large as 60 gigabytes, iPods can hold hugeamounts of data (not just music files). So thieves usethem to store and transport illicit material. Paul Car-ratu, a fraud consultant, recently unearthed a case inwhich employees at a British recruitment firm usediPods to steal a valuable client database. Derrick Don-nelly, a forensic technology advisor to police forces, hasseen child pornographers use iPods to store photos. Sofar, it appears cops aren’t catching on. Asked how thetrend is being combated, an FBI spokesman said onlythat the agency is hip to the “concept” that iPods havecrooked applications. The question is whether theywill catch up, before criminals co-opt the world’s newestcultural icon. —Prerna Mankad
NET EFFECT[ H O W T E C H N O L O G Y S H A P E S T H E W O R L D ]
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Pod Snatching Caught in the Net:
U.S. MilitarySoldier-bloggers have provided journalists, families, and thepublic firsthand, uncensored accounts of what’s happening inIraq—until now. A new policy, handed down by U.S. commandersin April but only recently reported, requires service members inIraq who blog to notify their chain of command, or face punish-ment. Under the policy, commanders must read subordinates’blogs. Some soldiers are going offline, rather than reveal theiridentity to higher-ups. Others say they’ll break the rule. “I’mtaking a risk,” says one soldier, “but I [can’t]be objective if the Armyknows who I am.”
FP invites readers to suggest incidents in which a government, corporation, or any organization is involved in a unique technological abuse at [email protected].
tion on the legitimacy of the new Iraqi regime. The orga-nization refused repeated requests for comment. Butofficials affiliated with the Iraqi government indicatethey expect the domain’s return soon.
For Iraqis, that’s welcome news. Voice over Internetprotocol systems that provide free telephony, a comingnetwork of atms, and a desperate desire on the part ofaverage Iraqis to connect with the outside world arealready driving millions of dollars of quiet investment intothe country’s Internet sector. And Uzri says Iraqis willembrace the .iq domain. “Even some of my Kurdishfriends are asking me when .iq will be available for themto use for their businesses,” he says. Like so much elsein Iraq, the answer isn’t up to them. —Bartle Breese Bull
September | October 2005 109
Elisabeth Eaves is a writer based in Paris. Prerna Mankad is
a researcher at Foreign Policy. Bartle Breese Bull has
reported from Iraq for the New York Times, Financial Times,London’s Telegraph, and other publications.M
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Expert SitingsGlenn Reynolds publishesInstaPundit.com. The world’s most-readblogger, he is the Beauchamp Brogan dis-tinguished professor of law at the University of Tennessee.
volokh.comThe Volokh Conspiracy is my favorite legal blog. It featuresinformed analysis on a wide range of topics, including, recently,whether the right to bear arms should be recognized as aninternational human right in order to help prevent genocide.
strategypage.comStrategyPage, an independent military site full of open-sourceintelligence and reports from troops on the ground in Iraq andAfghanistan, is the site I turn to for unfiltered news and sharpthinking about the war on terror.
blog.speculist.comThe Speculist is a futurist blog that looks at new and emerg-ing technologies and the social responses they produce. Itcovers topics ranging from nanotechnology and agingresearch, to the all-important question of why I can’t buy aJetsons-style aircar yet.
memeorandum.comMemeorandum is a Web site that gathers posts from a numberof leading blogs on the big stories breaking around the world.It’s the place where I start my day’s reading—like going overthe morning newspaper with a circle of informed friends.
The .iq DebacleA li Uzri, an Iraqi technology consultant, has been
waiting for his country to get on the informationsuperhighway for a long time. “Near my house in Bagh-dad, there’s an Internet cafe called Dreamnet.iq,” saysUzri. “The sign has been up for over a year—even thoughfor most of that time it was the .iq part that was just adream.” That’s because, despite the fact that Iraq has beena sovereign nation for some 15 months, its top-levelInternet domain, .iq, has been in a legal limbo.
In 1997, the Internet Corporation for AssignedNames and Numbers (icann), a quasi-independent
body that oversees Internet domains worldwide,granted control of the country’s domain to a Texas-based Palestinian named Bayan Elashi. Elashi intro-duced the world’s first Arabic computer and foundedthree technology firms, one of which hosted hundreds ofWeb sites, including Al Jazeera’s. But, in 2002, Elashi wasindicted for funneling money to Hamas and selling com-puter equipment to Libya and Syria. When he was sentto a Texas prison for those crimes, icann resumed con-trol over the domain. In 2004, the U.S. administrator inIraq, Paul Bremer, asked icann to free it up for theincoming Iraqi government, but the organization balkedat handing it over, arguing Iraq was still too unstable. Formonths, icann refused to consider several requests byIraq’s government for the domain’s return.
But one Baghdad political insider says that theimbroglio is likely to end “imminently”—possibly bythe time this magazine hits newsstands—with icannhanding over .iq to the new government. It’s unclearwhy icann may reverse its earlier decision, whether itbe from mounting political pressure or a different posi-
Set my domain free: Iraqi businesses want .iq turned over.
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September | October 2005 111
everywhere—assume is or should be normal,and the daily realities faced by the overwhelm-ing majority of people. Information about thedire conditions common in poor countries isplentiful and widely discussed. Curiously, how-ever, expectations about what it means to benormal in today’s world continue to reflect theabnormal reality of a few rich countries ratherthan the global norm.
We assume that it is normal to eat at leastthree meals a day, to walk the streets withoutfear, and to have access to water, electricity,phones, and public transportation. Sadly, it is
not. Today, 852 million people, including manychildren and the elderly, do not get three mealsa day, and when they do, their meals do notprovide them with the daily caloric intakerequired by a normal person. Roughly 1.6 bil-lion people lack access to electricity, and 2.4 bil-lion rely on traditional fuels such as wood anddung for cooking and heating. Thirty percentof the world’s population has never made aphone call. Street crime and urban violenceare normal in most of the world. The averagehomicide rate in Latin America and theCaribbean is about 25 per 100,000 inhabitantsand, in sub-Saharan Africa, it is roughly 18murders per 100,000. (In the European Union,there are just 3 homicides for every 100,000inhabitants.) An estimated 246 million chil-dren, about 1 in 6, work, and 73 million ofthem are less than 10 years old. Whereas child-birth is typically an occasion for celebration inhigh-income countries, it is a source of death, dis-ease, and disability elsewhere. According to theWorld Health Organization, more than half amillion women die every year due to pregnancy-related complications in the developing world,where the risk of maternal mortality is 1 in 61.In rich countries, the risk of maternal mortalityis 1 in 2,800.
This distorted perception of what is normalcan take on subtler forms. Consider, for example,
our common assumptions about the quality ofthe news we get. We tend to assume that thenews is free from government interference. Yet,in most of the world, that is not the case. AWorld Bank survey of media ownership foundthat in 97 countries, 72 percent of the top fiveradio stations and 60 percent of the top five tvcompanies were state-owned. The study alsofound strong statistical evidence that countrieswith greater state ownership of the media havefewer political rights, less developed markets,and strikingly inferior education and health.
Rich-world assumptions about what consti-tutes the global norm are costly illusions. Billions
of dollars have been wasted by assuming thatgovernments in poorer countries are more orless like those in rich ones, only a little less effi-cient. Despite constant reminders that mostgovernments in the world are unable to per-form relatively simple tasks, such as deliveringthe mail or collecting the garbage, most recipesfor how these countries should solve theirproblems reflect the sophisticated capabilitiestaken for granted in rich countries, not therealities that exist everywhere else.
We want people to have a better life, andit is natural that our definition of normal servesas a compass for helping others. The gapbetween what we assume is normal and thereality that billions of people face is drivenless by a parochial propensity to impose ourexperience on others than a sincere expres-sion of our values. Nor should values be aban-doned—they are our true north and point usin the direction where progress lies. But ourstrongly felt ideals must not become the basisfor policy. At a time when values have becomeso common in political discourse, it is impor-tant to remain alert to when our advice is builton faulty assumptions about what is normal.When that happens, values lead to bad deci-sions, not moral clarity.
[ Missing Links ]
Continued from page 112
Moisés Naím is editor in chief of Foreign Policy.
A “normal” human being in today’s world is poor, lives in
oppressive physical, social, and political conditions, and is
ruled by unresponsive and corrupt government.
112 Foreign Policy
You are not normal. If you are reading these pages,
you probably belong to the minority of the world’s population that has a steady job, adequate access
to social security, and enjoys substantial political freedoms. Moreover, you live on more than $2 a
day, and, unlike 860 million others, you can read. The percentage of humanity that combines all
Statistically, a “normal” human being intoday’s world is poor, lives in oppressive physical,social, and political conditions, and is ruledby unresponsive and corrupt government. Butnormalcy is not only defined by statistics. Nor-mal implies something that is “usual, typical, orexpected.” Therefore, normal is not only whatis statistically most frequent but also what oth-ers assume it to be. In this sense, the expectationsof a tiny minority trump the realities of thevast majority. There is an enormous gapbetween what average citizens in advancedWestern democracies—and the richer elites
DangerouslyUnique
Why our definition of “normalcy” can be costly for everyone else.
By Moisés Naím
of these attributes is minuscule. According to the World Bank, about half of
humanity lives on less than $2 a day, while theInternational Labour Organization reckons that athird of the available labor force is unemployed orunderemployed, and half of the world’s populationhas no access to any kind of social security. Free-dom House, an organization that studies countries’political systems, categorizes 103 of the world’s192 nations as either “not free” or “partiallyfree,” meaning that the civil liberties and basicpolitical rights of their citizens are limited orseverely curtailed. More than 3.6 billion people, or56 percent of the world, live in such countries. Continued on page 111
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