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CITY OF THE FUTUREThe View from 2032
Guy Dauncey, Living Future SymposiumVictoria, November 2013
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
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We’ve come a long way from this….
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To this …
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but…
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Smithore Dreamstime.com
We’ve also come to this…
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If everyone lived the way we do,
we'd need another two Earths
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As we burn the fossil fuels…
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CO2 CO2CO2
CO2
CO2 CO2
100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second
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Monday
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Monday
OMG!
Daddy, you’re going to die!!!!
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2 metres
10 metres
18 metres
25 metres
The last time the global temperature was 3°C warmer, the sea-level was 25 metres higher.
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Global CO2 in 1750 (biogenic)
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CO2 emissions since1750 (anthropogenic)
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Maximum extra CO2 to stay below 2°C of warming
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Potential CO2 in declared fossil fuel reserves
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All of this must remain in the ground
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"Dreams are extremely important. You can't do it unless you can imagine it.”
- George Lucas
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"Create your future from your future, not your past.” - Werner Erhard
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"Pain pushes until vision pulls." - Michael Beckwith
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So what is our vision of a beautiful, desirable future?
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Ten Themes
1: The Return of Nature
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Habitat for Urban Wildlife Ifat Finkelman Ofer Bilik Architects, Israel
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Animal Wall, Cardiff Bay, Wales
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London Fieldworks Duncan Terrace GardensIslington, London
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Back to Nature
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Brooklyn Public School 216 Arturo Toscanini, New York
Turning THIS…
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into THIS.
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Hundertwasserhaus, Vienna
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Musee du Quai Branly, ParisPatrick Blanc, Le Mur Vegetal
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Madrid’s vertical garden is made up of
more than 15,000 plants, from 250
different species.
Patrick Blanc
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ACROS building, Fukuoka, Japan35,000 plants, 76 species
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Flower Tower, Paris, 2004 www.edouardfrancois.com
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United Bank of SwitzerlandBasel
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Singapore,Editt Tower
(proposed)
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Singapore,Editt Tower
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The Gherkin, London
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Semiahmoo Transit StationSurrey, BC, Canada
Before…
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www.greenovergrey.com
After…
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Vincent Callebaut
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Vincent Callebaut: Asian Cairns, Sustainable Megaliths for Rural Urbanity, Shenzhen, China, 2013
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Is this your dream home of the future?Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
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Or this?
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Or this?
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Ten Themes
2: Green, Sustainable Energy
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By 2016, every new home in Britain must be zero-carbon.
www.zerocarbonhub.org
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By 2020, every new home in California must be zero net energy - emit no carbon and give power back to the grid.
Zero Net Energy Housing
The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
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The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging, energy-labeled
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The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging, energy-labeled
1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all permitted improvement projects above $20,000
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging, energy-labeled
1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all permitted improvement projects above $20,000
2. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and report energy use annually (San Francisco)
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging, energy-labeled
1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all permitted improvement projects above $20,000
2. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and report energy use annually (San Francisco)
3. On-Bill + PACE Financing for energy upgrades
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging, energy-labeled
1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all permitted improvement projects above $20,000
2. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and report energy use annually (San Francisco)
3. On-Bill + PACE Financing for energy upgrades
4. Sustainability Checklists for Developers
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging, energy-labeled
1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all permitted improvement projects above $20,000
2. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and report energy use annually (San Francisco)
3. On-Bill + PACE Financing for energy upgrades
4. Sustainability Checklists for Developers
5. Green building grants, education and technical servicesGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
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www.architecture2030.org
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Empire State Building
SustainabilityRetrofit
38% reduced energy use
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Winter: -10oC outside, no heat needed insideSummer: 35oC outside, only 26oC inside
The Passive House
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Victoria, BC www.bernhardtpassive.com
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Construction costs: 4.3% more per square foot
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Monthly net energy savings more than the increased mortgage
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LED Lighting
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LED Chandeliers
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63 kW solar PV, 30 kW Biomass boiler40 kW air source heat pump2 x 17 kW Ground source heat pumpsEnergy Centre roof 20 m2 solar thermal panels
Greenwatt Way, Slough, UK
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BedZEDSutton, London, UK
Super-efficient, smart metered
CHP power and hot water from local tree wastes
Space heat: 88% lessHot water: 57% lessElectricity: 25% less
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Beddington Zero Energy Housing (BedZED), Sutton, London, UK
Energy Centre
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Renewable Energy Heat Pumps
Solar-SourceMoisture-SourceGround-SourceWater-SourceSewer-Source
Ice-Source
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Solar (air source) Heat Pump
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Ductless Mini-Split Solar Heat Pump
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The Octopus Ice-Stickwww.octopus.tm
Solar Air Moisture Heat Pump
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50-75% reduced heating costsAir moisture heat pump
50 years life spanOperates down to -25oC
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Since 1991, in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, Holland, Italy, Romania, Ireland.
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CruxifixIce-Stick
Heat Pump
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Ground-Source Solar Heat
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Geothermal Radial Drilling, Austriahttp://geothermic.tracto-technik.com
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Water-Source Solar Heat
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Ice-Source Heat
Richmond Olympic Skating Oval
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Solar Hot Water
on a restaurant in Sweden
Photo by Hamilton Hazlehurst/Vulcan
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Rizhao, China
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www.solarbc.caA project of the BCSEA
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Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta.
Solar Thermal District Heat
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800 solar hot water
panels on the garages
90% of residential space heating needs met by solar thermal energy (40-50o C)
Reduction - 5 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions
per home per year.
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The Energy Centre
Solar Thermal Heating 12 months a year
Community solar heat panels
Solar hot waterpanels
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Solar Thermal Housing, Rostock, Germany
Sor
ce:
Sol
vis
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In Sweden, Stockholm sends heat from treated sewage effluent to 80,000 apartments
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Pre-insulated pipe used to heat most homes and commercial buildings in Scandinavia.
Insulation allows delivery of hot water at 200o C up to 24 km, with only a few degrees loss of heat.
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Rolf Disch Solar Architecture
Solar PV
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Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Taiwan Solar Stadium, 2013
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Data from Stephen O'Rourke, senior analyst for semiconductor equipment and materials, Deutsche Bank Securities, via www.energyandcapital.com, February 2008
100,000GW in 2012
Solar PV 7000% increase since 2000
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3 kW PV System$15,000 in Victoria
$12,000 if bulk 30 houses$9,000 at IKEA, UK
3,300 kWh year
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Solar Economics in Victoria, BC(No Feed-in Tariff)
3 kW, 3% financing, 3% pa BC Hydro inflation
2013 2020Cost per kW $5,000 $3,000Cost of 3 kW system $15,000 $9,000$25 yr 3% mortgage $21,300 $12,780
kWh per year 3,300 kWh 3,300 kWh 25 years + 3% pa $12,009 $14,768
Profit (Loss) (-$9,291) $1,988
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Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c
om
This tiny slither of time is the Age of Fossil Fuels
5,000,000 years past
5,000,000 years future
The Human Journey
If we act as we should, we will make the 200 Carbon Years the launch ramp for a billion Solar Years
Firewood Solar500,000 years
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
If we act as we should, we will make the 200 Carbon Years the launch ramp for a billion Solar Years
Firewood Solar500,000 years
Fossil Solar200 years
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If we act as we should, we will make the 200 Carbon Years the launch ramp for a billion Solar Years
Firewood Solar500,000 years
Fossil Solar200 years
Renewable Solar1.75 billion years
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Ten Themes
3: Sustainable Watersheds
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Restoring urban creeks and streams
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Still Creek, Vancouver. Chum Salmon restored after 80 years
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Home Water Conservation:Dual Flush Toilets
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Composting Toilets
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Rainwater Storage
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Bioswale to capture rainwaterSEA Street, Seattle
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SEA Street, Seattle
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Water Conservation Credits in 2032
1. Builder seeks building permit for new house
2. Water conserving actions in existing houses earn conservation credits
3. Water conserving companies retrofit existing houses, collect credits.
4. Builder buys credits to qualify for building permit
5. Net increase in water-use = ZERO
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Ten Themes
4: Reclaimed Streets
Re-imagine Re-designRe-claim
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‘What a Thrill’ Street, San Antonio, Texas
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In 2012, San Antonio’s City Center Development Office contracted Team Better Block of Dallas with the Project for Public Spaces in New York City to develop a site plan that narrowed a segment of West Commerce Street from 4 lanes to 3 to create a more inviting pedestrian experience.
Just for one day…
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Team Better Block
San Antonio, Texas
www.betterblock.org
Proyecto Urbano Integral, Medellin, ColombiaGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
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Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea
Before and After
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Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea
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The HighlineConverted Railway,
New York
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Proposed Drexel City Campus, New York,with the Highline running through it
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Brooklyn Bridge Remix/Redux Terreform and Michael Sorkin Studio
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London: a Garden Bridge across the ThamesThomas Heatherwick
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Rua Gonçalo de Carvalho, Porto Allegro, Brazil
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Berge de Seine, Paris
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Place de la Republique, Paris, 1850s
Place de la Republique, 2006
stephanekirkland.com
Place de la Republique, 2013
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Ten Themes
5: Thriving Neighborhoods
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Portland, Oregon www.CityRepair.org
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EarthSong Eco-Neigbourhood, Auckland, New ZealandGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
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Pioneer Valley Cohousing, Massachusetts
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Jamestown Mall, St. Louis County, MissouriGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Possible Future: Jamestown Mall, Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
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Namba ParksOsaka, Japan
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Hundertwasser's Waldspirale, Darmstadt, Germany
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Ten Themes
6: Healthy Urban Organic Food
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www.talkgreentous.ca
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Moss Street Market, Victoria
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Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Fulham Palace Allotment Gardens, London
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Valencia, Spain
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Ten Themes
7: Sustainable Transportationwithout Fossil Fuels
Walking
Graben Street, Vienna
Times Square, New York
Toronto Walking School Bus
Neighbourhood Walkability Auditwww.walklive.org
Amsterdam
Cycling
Amsterdam
Vancouver
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Bike Path in Cambridge, UK
Starpath is a sprayable coating of light-absorbing particles that harvests UV rays from the sun during
the day and lights up like a starry sky at night.
www.pro-teqsurfacing.com
City Bike Sharing, Washington DC
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Electric Bicycles
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School at Assen, Holland
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Transit
In Stockholm, 200 buses run on biogas from sewage treatment (Stephen Salter)
Umea, SwedenFast-Charging Electric Bus, 18 hours/day
1 – 2 euros for 10-20 kWh electricity to go 10 km
www.opbrid.com
OLEVOn-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea
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Real-time electronic timetable
Bus shelter in Taiwan
LRT in Portland, Oregon
LRT in Mulhouse, France
Proyecto Urbano Integral,
Medellin, Colombia
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Real-time Ride-sharing www.car.ma
See
Victoria Carshare Coop650 members share 23 vehicles
www.victoriacarshare.ca
Car Sharing
Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing
Vehicles owners earnup to $300 a month
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Chevy Volt2,500 km on one tank of gas
Volkswagen XL1 (1-litre) 2012 Diesel plug-in hybrid 75 km battery range
0.9 litres/100 km 312 mpg
Renault Twizy EV
2 seats, 100 km range, 3.5 hours recharge
$9,700 + $60/month battery lease
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Smart Electric – 135 km range
Tesla EV Model-X
7 seats350 kilometers range
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Honda solar electric car charging
1.5 kW solar PV = 1,500 kWh a year
= 10,000 km
PV for EV
1.5 kW PV = $7,50025 year PV loan 3.5% = $37/month
Gas @ $1.30 litre = $80/month
PV for EV
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Electric car fast charging
Cargohopper3 tonnes max60 km range20 kph top speedUrban deliveriesHolland
www.cargohopper.com
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EVs + Bikes = less urban noise
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No fossil fuel pollution = clear skies
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Ten Themes
8: A Strong Green Local Economy
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11
22
33
44
55
66
77
88
Benefit Corporations
VillageBusinessNetworks
Coop Network
Green BusinessCertification
Values-Based Banking
Community Welfare Basic Income
Affordable HousingInitiatives
The Community
Economyin 2032
CommunityEconomicEducation
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1 Benefit Corporations
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2Green Business
Certification
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3 Village BusinessNetworks
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4 CooperativesNetwork
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5Values-Based
BankingInterest-free bankingDebt CirclesCommunity currenciesMicrofinanceLocal business lendingCredit UnionsBank of BC
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6Community Welfare
andBasic Income
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7Affordable
HousingInitiatives
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7Affordable
HousingInitiatives
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7Affordable
HousingInitiatives
LoftCube
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7Affordable
HousingInitiatives
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8CommunityEconomic Education
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Ten Themes
9: A Thriving Artistic Culture
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THE ELECTRONIC SIDEWALK YOUR POEM HERE
wake up your senses walk with a dog in the rain then roll on the rug Kim Pearson
A violin plays as the common space becomes
a place of beauty. Jenny Gerbasi
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Ten Themes
10: A Strong ParticipatoryDemocracy
Community engagement
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Engaging Young People
www.leadingchangenetwork.com
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Electronic ballotsVoting aged reduced to 16
Transferable Voting for City Hall$100 tax credit for voting (revenue neutral)
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Design the Future Community Meetings
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The Happy, Resilient City
More walking, biking, bus, carsharing
Lower transport costs
More urban food gardens Cheaper and healthier eating
Innovative affordable housing Lower housing costs
Stronger neighbourhoods More friends, more real community
More urban greenery More inner space, and peace
Stronger community economy More financial security
Green, energy-efficient homes Lower energy costs
No more fossil fuels Clean air, clear sky, quiet city
More civic engagement Healthier political realm
Basic Income Less poverty, fear and homelessness
More arts, music and neighbourhood celebration
More friends, more happiness, more love
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BUT…
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To reduce the risk of this …
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We must do this …
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To reduce the risk of this …
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
We must do this …
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
To reduce the risk of this …
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We must do this …
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A Green, Sustainable Future is not an Option
It is an Absolute Necessity
in which we must all become engaged
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Guy Dauncey
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