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Slideshow presented in london sustainability design jam 2013
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HOW DO YOU
DESIGN FOR AN
UNPREDICTABLE
FUTURE?
Rodrigo Bautista - @Rodgox
Senior Sustainability Advisor Innovation | London Design Jam | November 2013
Forum for the Future is a sustainability non-profit that works
globally with business, government and others to solve sustainability
challenges.
USA
UK
INDIA
SINGAPORE
A chair? Really?
A collection of
designs from KR Really?
That finish here,
anyway
"Our failure to address environmental
issues is not a failure of information but
a failure of imagination."
Professor John Robinson
SOME THINGS ARE PRETTY CERTAIN…
the future
1.We’ll feel
the pinch
• Slow wage growth
• Lower spending on leisure
• 68% people say cost is main
barrier to sustainable living.
2. Aspiring
markets
will exist • ’Aspirationals’ look for brands to provide solutions to improve their lives and
serve society and are the largest customer segment in India and China
• They trust consumer reviews and the advice of friends and family when deciding
what to buy…
• They’re very active on social media, and are the most likely group to believe we
need to “consume a lot less to improve the environment for future generations”
(73%)
Which? Research
Non-fuel commodities such as agricultural products and industrial inputs are likely to see strong price growth over the coming years. Slow wage growth: Ongoing high unemployment and wage stagnation means that wages in 2030 could still remain below the levels that were experienced by British workers in the 2000s. Lower spending on leisure: it’s likely that the rising cost of essentials (food, housing, etc) over the next 20 years will squeeze out consumer spending on recreation and culture. The rising cost of living will be unequally distributed across the age groups: young people and adults under 50 will increasingly struggle to meet costs. The Futures Company’s Global MONITOR survey, an annual study into consumer attitudes and values across 21 markets, with a sample of 1,975 consumers in the UK.
68% people say cost is main barrier to sustainable living.
‘Green’ and ‘eco’ products have often carried a price premium, yet but a minority of consumers are prepared to pay extra
People have less time to evaluate the relative sustainability of products but ever greater expectations. They expect brands they trust to tackle issues that they care about
Brands that help people cope with decreasing levels of disposable income – by helping them to use less energy or water – can help sustainability become the mainstream option
‘Savvy’ shoppers have reduced spending, but trust, sustainability and quality shape choices more – across all socioeconomic groups (Sainsbury’s New Fashioned Values report, 2012)
3. We’ll need
to ride the
digital wave
• In November 2011 the United
Nations declared broadband to be a
human right.
• Over 70% of the world’s population
has a mobile phone
4. Inequality
will get
worse
• Over a quarter (26%) say they have skipped
meals in the past year.
• One in five parents in poverty says they
cannot afford to replace their children's worn-
out shoes, while 80% of parents in poverty
say they have had to borrow money to pay for
food and clothes over the past 12 months.
5. The shared
economy will
rise
‘The currency of the new
economy is trust.’
Rachel Botsman
BUT SOME THINGS COULD
GO EITHER WAY…
"I think there is a world market for maybe five
computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM,
1943.
"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" -- H. M.
Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.
"It will be years -- not in my time -- before a
woman will become Prime Minister." -- Margaret
Thatcher, 1974
FUTURES How do we help others to design for an unpredictable
future?
visions
long-term trends
scenarios
emerging trends
futures is… a structured exploration of the future to
improve decision making today
why use futures?
1 ….new perspectives
2 ….better ideas
4 ….creativity & innovation
3 ….joining up & building consensus
“What’s the role of technology
in helping people lead more
sustainable lives in 2025?”
We created future scenarios to provide inspiration….
+ +
…. for generating technology concepts for 2025
….these were our top ideas, you can see short summary film of them here
"Our failure to address environmental
issues is not a failure of information but
a failure of imagination."
Professor John Robinson
THANKS
Rodrigo Bautista –
@Rodgox
Senior Sustainability Advisor
Innovation | University of Brighton |
November 2013