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Since 1972 Service Beyond Estimation ® North America’s Construction Economist Vermeulens.com Boston w Toronto w Dallas w Denver w Los Angeles Beyond Estimation Market Outlook

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Page 1: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

Since 1972

Service Beyond Estimation

®

North America’s Construction EconomistVermeulens.com

B o s t o n w T o r o n t o w D a l l a s w D e n v e r w L o s A n g e l e s

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook

Page 2: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

2

AIA Continuing Education

Vermeulens is a Registered Provider with The American Institute of Architects Continuing Education Systems. Credit earned on completion of this program will be reported to CES Records for AIA members. Certificates of Completion for non-AIA members are available on request.

This program is registered with the AIA/CES for continuing professional education. As such, it does not include content that may be deemed or construed to be an approval or endorsement by the AIA of any material of construction or any method or manner of handling, using, distributing, or dealing in any material or product. Questions related to specific materials, methods, and services will be addressed at the conclusion of this presentation.

N o r t h A m e r i c a ’ s C o n s t r u c ti o n E c o n o m i s t

Service Beyond EstimationService Beyond Estimation

Page 3: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

3

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Learning Objectives

B o s t o n w T o r o n t o w D a l l a s w D e n v e r w L o s A n g e l e s

Cost Reconciliation Tracker Present trends in median trade costs from January 2009 – Current

Macro Economics Understand the Macro Economic impacts on Construction Volume and Cost

Forecast Forecast for Future Construction Costs

Procurement Strategy In light of current market conditions, recommendations on project procurement

Page 4: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

4

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Where We Are…

N o r t h A m e r i c a ’ s C o n s t r u c ti o n E c o n o m i s t

Page 5: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

2000 - Current

5

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

2016120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

VCC Construction Cost Index

Construction Cost Trendline (3.1%)

CPI

CPI Trendline (2.7%)

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Vermeulens Construction Cost Index

B o s t o n w T o r o n t o w D a l l a s w D e n v e r w L o s A n g e l e s

Page 6: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

Jan-90Jan-92

Jan-94Jan-96

Jan-98Jan-00

Jan-02Jan-04

Jan-06Jan-08

Jan-10Jan-12

Jan-147,500

8,500

9,500

10,500

11,500

12,500

13,500

14,500

15,500

16,500

17,5002.7% Trend Line

GDP

(Bill

ions

)

6

High/Low-4.3%

Low/Current+13.3%

Growth Rate of 2.1% for the last 5 Years

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®US Real GDP

N o r t h A m e r i c a ’ s C o n s t r u c ti o n E c o n o m i s t

Page 7: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

7

Code Group VCC CM CM-VCC VCC CM CM-VCC

01 Allowances $1,156,805 $2,422,380 $1,265,575 $2,651,790 $2,672,730 $20,940

02 Site Work $2,636,810 $3,773,428 $1,136,618 $2,918,155 $2,882,279 ($35,876)

03 Concrete $5,840,270 $5,065,081 ($775,190) $5,065,361 $5,065,081 ($280)

04 Masonry $1,547,241 $1,767,385 $220,144 $1,615,526 $1,609,395 ($6,130)

05 Metals $17,945,452 $17,804,383 ($141,069) $15,675,089 $15,577,004 ($98,085)

06 Wood/Plastic $3,172,732 $3,831,671 $658,939 $3,694,276 $3,600,999 ($93,277)

07 Thermal/Moisture Protection $2,903,951 $3,046,873 $142,922 $3,099,398 $3,086,080 ($13,319)

08 Doors/Windows $17,219,666 $15,756,579 ($1,463,087) $15,214,307 $15,299,926 $85,619

09 Finishes $9,635,770 $9,399,224 ($236,546) $10,135,975 $10,137,758 $1,782

10 Specialties $1,335,983 $1,163,012 ($172,971) $1,410,825 $1,418,709 $7,884

11 Equipment $1,127,700 $1,852,358 $724,658 $1,692,000 $1,693,414 $1,414

12 Furnishings $784,846 $302,393 ($482,453) $559,342 $573,596 $14,255

13 Special Construction $300,000 $148,575 ($151,425) $150,000 $148,575 ($1,425)

14 Conveying Systems $4,858,875 $7,212,645 $2,353,770 $5,963,888 $5,993,138 $29,250

15 Mechanical $28,949,381 $35,232,816 $6,283,436 $29,127,187 $29,493,221 $366,034

16 Electrical $15,451,608 $16,700,277 $1,248,669 $16,476,313 $16,451,613 ($24,700)

17 Permits & Fees $19,075,543 $20,452,111 $1,376,568 $20,043,336 $20,051,467 $8,130

18 Contingencies $16,841,472 $14,102,030 ($2,739,443) $15,684,472 $15,697,176 $12,704

19 Enabling $22,704,456 $22,704,458 $2 $22,704,458 $22,704,458 $0

20 Total Construction Costs $173,488,558 $182,737,674 $9,249,116 $173,881,696 $174,156,616 $274,920

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Cost Reconciliation Tracker®

B o s t o n w T o r o n t o w D a l l a s w D e n v e r w L o s A n g e l e s

Page 8: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

8

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Cost Reconciliation Tracker®

N o r t h A m e r i c a ’ s C o n s t r u c ti o n E c o n o m i s t

Page 9: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

Typical Institutional Project – Direct Trade Cost

Recession Decline -14.0%2011 +2.0%2012 +4.0%2013 +5.0%2014 +6.0%

Assumes trade-weighted average of individual percentage trade reduction

9

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Construction Cost Impact

B o s t o n w T o r o n t o w D a l l a s w D e n v e r w L o s A n g e l e s

Page 10: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

10

http://www.turnerconstruction.com/cost-index

Recession Decline-13.2%

2011 + 2.1%2012 + 2.6%2013 + 4.7%2014 + 4.4%

2015 +2.3%

-14%

+2.0%

+4.0%+5.0%+6.0%

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Turner Construction Cost Index

Turner Construction Cost Index

N o r t h A m e r i c a ’ s C o n s t r u c ti o n E c o n o m i s t

+3.0%

Page 11: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

High Growth Market Adjustment Cost Recovery High Growth0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3250

3500

3750

950675 675 750 750

1150

1075 10501150 1250

1300

1000650

9501300

MarkupLaborMaterial

3,400

2,750

2,375

2,850

3,300

11

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Structural Steel Pricing

B o s t o n w T o r o n t o w D a l l a s w D e n v e r w L o s A n g e l e s

Page 12: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

12

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Contingency

Project Contingency and Escalation Recommendations

Design Contingency

Preliminary Design 10% to 15%

Schematic Design 6% to 9%

Design Development 3% to 6%

Contract Documents 0% to 3%

Construction Contingency 3% to 5%

Escalation - based on the Market Outlook and Local index 3 to 9%

Bidding Contingency 0% to 5%

Project Contingency (Owner) 5% - 15%

N o r t h A m e r i c a ’ s C o n s t r u c ti o n E c o n o m i s t

Page 13: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

2016100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

ENR TURNER VERMEULENS

13

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®What’s Next?

B o s t o n w T o r o n t o w D a l l a s w D e n v e r w L o s A n g e l e s

Page 14: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

201680

90

100

110

120

130

140Nominal US Dollar Broad Index

14

-26% +18% -15% +24%

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®US Dollar Risk Hedge

N o r t h A m e r i c a ’ s C o n s t r u c ti o n E c o n o m i s t

Page 15: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

20160

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000NYSE

15

+123% -58% +154%

US Dollar Risk HedgeBeyond Estimation Market Outlook®

B o s t o n w T o r o n t o w D a l l a s w D e n v e r w L o s A n g e l e s

Page 16: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

16

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

201680

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®US Dollar and NYSE

US Dollar and NYSE

N o r t h A m e r i c a ’ s C o n s t r u c ti o n E c o n o m i s t

Page 17: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

20160

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50Dow Jones Commodity Index

17

+168% -57% +72%

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®US Dollar Impact on Commodities

B o s t o n w T o r o n t o w D a l l a s w D e n v e r w L o s A n g e l e s

-50%

Page 18: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

201680

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

18

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®US Dollar Impact on Commodities

N o r t h A m e r i c a ’ s C o n s t r u c ti o n E c o n o m i s t

Page 19: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

19

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

13,000

13,500

14,000

14,500

15,000

15,500

16,000

16,500

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

GDP (Billions) and NYSE

B o s t o n w T o r o n t o w D a l l a s w D e n v e r w L o s A n g e l e s

Page 20: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

20

128,000

129,000

130,000

131,000

132,000

133,000

134,000

135,000

136,000

137,000

138,000

139,000

140,000

141,000

142,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

8.7 M Jobs 12.2M Jobs

183,0

00 /

mth

215,0

00 /

mth

3.0% G

DP G

rowth

2.2%

GDP

Gro

wth

245,000 / month

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®US Employment (Thousands) and NYSE

B o s t o n w T o r o n t o w D a l l a s w D e n v e r w L o s A n g e l e s

Page 21: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

21

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

2016128,000

129,000

130,000

131,000

132,000

133,000

134,000

135,000

136,000

137,000

138,000

139,000

140,000

141,000

142,000

7.0%

9.0%

11.0%

13.0%

15.0%

17.0%

19.0%

BANK ANNOUNCEMENT

21.6 M Jobs 22.4 M Jobs 22.5 M Jobs 21.9M Jobs

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®US Employment (Thousands) Public vs Private

N o r t h A m e r i c a ’ s C o n s t r u c ti o n E c o n o m i s t

Page 22: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

22

12/31/85 06/23/91 12/13/96 06/05/02 11/26/07 05/18/13

90,000

95,000

100,000

105,000

110,000

115,000

120,000

125,000

130,000

135,000

140,000

145,000

150,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

105,000

110,000

115,000

120,000

125,000

130,000

135,000

140,000

145,000

150,000

3.7% GDP Growth Rate

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®US Total Employment (Thousands)

B o s t o n w T o r o n t o w D a l l a s w D e n v e r w L o s A n g e l e s

Page 23: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

23

01/01/01 09/28/03 06/24/06 03/20/09 12/15/11 09/10/14 06/06/17

100,000

105,000

110,000

115,000

120,000

125,000

130,000

135,000

140,000

145,000

150,000

155,000

160,000

100,000

105,000

110,000

115,000

120,000

125,000

130,000

135,000

140,000

145,000

150,000

155,000

160,000

6.2M

6.2M

245,000 / month

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®US Total Employment (Thousands)

N o r t h A m e r i c a ’ s C o n s t r u c ti o n E c o n o m i s t

Page 24: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

24

20112012

20132014

20152016

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

205K AVG

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®US Total Employment (Thousands)

B o s t o n w T o r o n t o w D a l l a s w D e n v e r w L o s A n g e l e s

Page 25: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

25

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

20160

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Reserve Assets (trillion) Unemployment Rate (%)

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Federal Asset Monthly Purchase

N o r t h A m e r i c a ’ s C o n s t r u c ti o n E c o n o m i s t

Page 26: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

26

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®US Job Growth

0 2 -Jan -8 7 2 4 -Ju n -9 2 1 5 -D ec-9 7 0 7 -Ju n -0 3 2 7 -N o v-0 8 2 0 -May-1 4

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

5,000

6 Month Average Job Growth NYSE Vermeulens

B o s t o n w T o r o n t o w D a l l a s w D e n v e r w L o s A n g e l e s

Page 27: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

19861988

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

20142016

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

High/LowTotal

-8.7M (-6%)

Construction-2.3M (-30%)

Low/CurrentTotal

+12.2M (+9%)

Construction+948K (+18%)

27

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®US Construction Employment (Thousands)

B o s t o n w T o r o n t o w D a l l a s w D e n v e r w L o s A n g e l e s

Page 28: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

19861987

19881989

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

20164,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

28

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Construction Employment and Percent of Total

N o r t h A m e r i c a ’ s C o n s t r u c ti o n E c o n o m i s t

Page 29: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

29

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Construction Labor Utilization Rate

B o s t o n w T o r o n t o w D a l l a s w D e n v e r w L o s A n g e l e s

Page 30: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

30

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Construction Labor Utilization Rate

N o r t h A m e r i c a ’ s C o n s t r u c ti o n E c o n o m i s t

Page 31: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

National(-30% + 18%)

Denver(-27% + 43%)

Houston(-17% + 18%)

Dallas(-21% + 22%)

Boston(-25% + 28%)

31

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Regional Construction Labor (Thousands)

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220 Dallas

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220 Houston

60

70

80

90

100

110

120 Boston

60

70

80

90

100

110

120 Denver

B o s t o n w T o r o n t o w D a l l a s w D e n v e r w L o s A n g e l e s

Page 32: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

National(-30% + 18%)

San Jose(-35% + 43%)

New York(-19% + 19%)

Seattle(-38% + 38%)San Francisco(-33% + 32%)

32

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Regional Construction Labor (Thousands)

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

2016200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400New York

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140 San Francisco

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

201650

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140 Seattle

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

201620

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60 San Jose

N o r t h A m e r i c a ’ s C o n s t r u c ti o n E c o n o m i s t

Page 33: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

National(-30% + 18%)

Philadelphia(-25% + 15%)

Portland(-31% + 24%)

Detroit(-42% + 40%)

Baltimore(-21% + 11%)

33

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

2016

20

30

40

50

60

70

80 Portland

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Regional Construction Labor (Thousands)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120 Detroit

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

201650

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100 Baltimore

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140 Philadelphia

B o s t o n w T o r o n t o w D a l l a s w D e n v e r w L o s A n g e l e s

Page 34: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

National(-30% + 18%)

Minneapolis(-38% + 33%)

Los Angeles(-35% + 24%)

Washington DC(-27% + 7%)

Atlanta(-38% + 21%)

34

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Regional Construction Labor (Thousands)

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105Minneapolis

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150 Atlanta

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

2016100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200 Washington DC

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

2016150

170

190

210

230

250

270

290

Los Angeles

N o r t h A m e r i c a ’ s C o n s t r u c ti o n E c o n o m i s t

Page 35: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

National(-30% + 18%)

Chicago(-33% + 10%)

San Diego(-42% + 21%)

Miami(-49% + 26%)

Phoenix(-55% + 23%)

35

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220 Phoenix

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

Miami

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Regional Construction Labor (Thousands)

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

Chicago

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100 San Diego

B o s t o n w T o r o n t o w D a l l a s w D e n v e r w L o s A n g e l e s

Page 36: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

36

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

Employment

Unemployment Rate

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Construction Employment and Unemployment Rate

N o r t h A m e r i c a ’ s C o n s t r u c ti o n E c o n o m i s t

Page 37: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

High/Low

Total -37%Infra -11%Res -66%Non Res -41%

Low/Current

Total +40%Infra +29%Res +62%Non Res +37%

37

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®US Construction Volume

Jan-00Jan-01

Jan-02Jan-03

Jan-04Jan-05

Jan-06Jan-07

Jan-08Jan-09

Jan-10Jan-11

Jan-12Jan-13

Jan-14Jan-15

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

Put In Place Construction Annualized Billions)Non Residential Residential Infrastructure

B o s t o n w T o r o n t o w D a l l a s w D e n v e r w L o s A n g e l e s

Page 38: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

Jan-93Jan-95

Jan-97Jan-99

Jan-01Jan-03

Jan-05Jan-07

Jan-09Jan-11

Jan-13Jan-15

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%7.0%7.5%8.0%8.5%9.0%

Put In Place Construction (% of GDP)Non Residential Residential Infrastructure

PeakTotal 8.2%Infra 2.0%Res 4.7%Non Res 3.0%

CurrentTotal 6.5%Infra 2.0%Res 2.3%Non Res 2.2%

38

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®US Construction Volume

N o r t h A m e r i c a ’ s C o n s t r u c ti o n E c o n o m i s t

Page 39: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

2016

0 1 -Jan -0 0 3 1 -D ec-0 0 3 1 -D ec-0 1 3 1 -D ec-0 2 3 1 -D ec-0 3 3 0 -D ec-0 4 3 0 -D ec-0 5 3 0 -D ec-0 6 3 0 -D ec-0 7 2 9 -D ec-0 8 2 9 -D ec-0 9 2 9 -D ec-1 0 2 9 -D ec-1 1 2 8 -D ec-1 2 2 8 -D ec-1 3 2 8 -D ec-1 4 2 8 -D ec-1 5

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1,100,000

1,200,000

1,300,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

39

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Construction Volume (Millions) and NYSE

B o s t o n w T o r o n t o w D a l l a s w D e n v e r w L o s A n g e l e s

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Indicator Bottom Increase

Equities March 2009 +154%Commodities February 2009 - 14%GDP Q2 2009 2.1% Annual Employment February 2010 12.2MNon Res Volume February 2011 + 37%

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Economic Summary

N o r t h A m e r i c a ’ s C o n s t r u c ti o n E c o n o m i s t

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41

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Forecast

B o s t o n w T o r o n t o w D a l l a s w D e n v e r w L o s A n g e l e s

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42

2008 Peak to Bottom 2010: - 14.0%Change in 2011: + 2.0%Change in 2012: + 4.0%Change in 2013: + 5.0%Change in 2014: + 6.0%

Low Growth

MarketAverage

+ 5% + 7%2015:

High Growth

Market

+ 10%+ 4% + 6%2016: + 9%

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Forecast

+ 3% + 5%2017: + 8%

N o r t h A m e r i c a ’ s C o n s t r u c ti o n E c o n o m i s t

Page 43: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

Jan-03Jan-04

Jan-05Jan-06

Jan-07Jan-08

Jan-09Jan-10

150.0

160.0

170.0

180.0

190.0

200.0

210.0

220.0

230.0

240.0

250.0

43

Fitout Procurement

Core & Shell Procurement

+0.6% +8.5% per year -14.0%

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Procurement Strategy BWH

B o s t o n w T o r o n t o w D a l l a s w D e n v e r w L o s A n g e l e s

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44

Recommendations

Change pricing models to reflect higher construction cost escalation at schematic design

Remove MEP & Interiors from Core/Shell package

During a high inflationary market – cost advantage of early packages

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Procurement Strategy BWH

N o r t h A m e r i c a ’ s C o n s t r u c ti o n E c o n o m i s t

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45

Jan-03Jan-04

Jan-05Jan-06

Jan-07Jan-08

Jan-09Jan-10

150.0

160.0

170.0

180.0

190.0

200.0

210.0

220.0

230.0

240.0

250.0

Enabling Package (Slurry Wall & Excavation)

100% CD GMP

Early Steel, Elevators and Design Assist Enclosure

+0.6% +8.5% per year -14.0%

Procurement Strategy Dana FarberBeyond Estimation Market Outlook®

B o s t o n w T o r o n t o w D a l l a s w D e n v e r w L o s A n g e l e s

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46

Recommendations

Distinct early packages (no cross pollination)

Detailed concept design options to marry program and budget

Timely decision making at conceptual design – avoid escalation

Use of bidding contingency to mitigate market risk

GMP 100% Documentation = lowest cost

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Procurement Strategy Dana Farber

N o r t h A m e r i c a ’ s C o n s t r u c ti o n E c o n o m i s t

Page 47: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

20122013

20142015

20162017

220

Construction Trendline (3.1%)

CPI Trendline (2.7%)

High

Low

Vermeulens Index

47

SD DD CD

Enabling

Structure & Envelope

Interiors & MEP

Concept Design

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Procurement Strategy

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48

When Is CM @ Risk Recommended

Fast track projects • no time for 100% Contract Documents prior to starting

construction

Very busy construction markets CM relationships required to get subcontractors to bid on

your project

Financing requires a GMP in order to proceed

Complicated renovations or additions interfacing with operating facilities

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®CM @ Risk

N o r t h A m e r i c a ’ s C o n s t r u c ti o n E c o n o m i s t

Page 49: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

49

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®CM @ Risk

15%

10%

5%

0%

>>>>

1. GMP at DD • 10-15% premium• End costs vary depending on completeness

of documents, relationship of Owner to CM, cost control process

2. GMP at CD • 5-10% premium• Proponents provide estimate of costs and

commit to general requirements and fee

3. Modified Bid • 0-5% premium• Proponents provide GMP based on

completed construction documents

4. Lump-Sum Bid • 6-8 pre-qualified general contractors submit lump-sum bids for complete scope of work

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What Are The Added Costs

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®CM @ Risk

Construction Contingency 2% to 5%

General Conditions & Requirements 2% to 5%Higher Service LevelHigher Insurance Levels

Fees 0% to 1%

Sub Contractor Selection/Pricing 2% to 5%High Level of Service & QualityHighly QualifiedScope Holds

N o r t h A m e r i c a ’ s C o n s t r u c ti o n E c o n o m i s t

Page 51: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

Strategic Early Procurement Packages

Escalation is extremely variable across the country

Evaluate Delivery Options and GMP Timing

Watch Job Creation for Continued Growth

51

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Recommendations

B o s t o n w T o r o n t o w D a l l a s w D e n v e r w L o s A n g e l e s

Page 52: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

Track Record

Project Volume & Benchmarking

Consensus Approach in Reconciliation

Market Outlook

Conceptual Estimating

Trusted Advisor

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook®Why Vermeulens

N o r t h A m e r i c a ’ s C o n s t r u c ti o n E c o n o m i s t

Page 53: Vermeulens Beyond Estimation Market Outlook - Q1 2015

Beyond Estimation Market Outlook

Service Beyond Estimation

North America’s Construction EconomistsVermeulens.com

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