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Predicting the Future: Surprising revelations from truly Big Data Pushpraj Shukla [email protected]

Predicting the Future With Microsoft Bing

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Predicting the Future: Surprising revelations from truly Big Data

Pushpraj Shukla

[email protected]

Bing Predicts

KnowledgeUnderstanding what the data means

InformationIndexing, aggregating, categorizing

the data

DataUnstructured and unorganized

What can we predict?

*

*Data from http://www.americanidolbettingodds.com/

Did we get lucky?

But wait, there’s more

Data science skepticism

“The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the Natural Sciences”, Eugene Wigner, 1960.

• Isn’t it remarkable how well we can predict physical phenomena using simple equations like F = ma or PV = nRT?

“The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Data”, Alon Halevy, Peter Norvig, & Fernando Pereira, 2009.

• Isn’t it remarkable how well we can predict human phenomena using simple statistical models and massive quantities of training data?

Task: Classify events into "tau tau decay of a Higgs boson" versus "background

Data Science and Machine Learning @Microsoft‘Big’ Tasks – Predicting human behavior and preferences, Speech, Translation, Image and Video recognition

‘Big’ Data = SCALE

- Huge data. More data = better accuracy

- Huge models. More features = better accuracy

- Huge human feedback

‘Big’ Infrastructure and Experimental Ecosystems

Machine learning for everyoneBig Tasks:

• Be curios, make bold hypotheses

• Ask challenging questions

• Disrupt polls and traditional data collection

Big Data

• Create data: high volume public/private data streams

• Join multiple data sources: Weather, Public Health, Traffic, Crime etc.

• Utilize the Crowd: Mechanical Turk, Kaggle

Smart Infrastructure

• Re-use solutions: public APIs in Text Analytics, Speech, Image

• Cloud-based ML solutions

Collaboration and learning

Existing templates and APIs for:

Stream Analytics

Anomaly Detection

Sentiment Analysis

Churn prediction

Sales Forecasting

Face recognition

Speech Recognition

.. And many more

Azure ML : ML Studio pictured below

Questions? Some References:

Bing Predicts: http://www.bing.com/explore/predicts?setmkt=en-us

AzureML : http://gallery.cortanaanalytics.com/

Reach me at [email protected]