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Popular, influential but flawed:TEST OF THE CREDIBILITY OF
GLOBAL REPORTS and INDICES
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Kutlu MERİH DataLabTR [email protected], [email protected]
Assoc. Prof. Dr. C. Coskun KÜÇÜKÖZMEN İzmir University of Economics [email protected]
Fatma ÇINAR Mba, Capital Market Board of Turkey, [email protected]
Trend of Reporting and Indexing
A new trend during the last two decades in the global system has been the release of some reports and related indices based on socio-political and economic issues of respective countries.
These studies are considered and carried out by eminent global institutions.
Indices Effects Global Flows
This is not merely a simple intellectual consideration of the issue.
Based on the rankings of these reports and indices, countries receive more or less foreign investment or become subjected to more or less interest rates in terms of spread.
Hence, it will not be an exaggeration to define these reports and indices as well- masked global manipulation tools.
Many sources introducing those indices ignore the technical infrastructure and reinforce the belief that they are based on sound scientific basis.
Unfortunately, the truth is not so.
Reports and Indices Are not Consistent
The majority of the indices are bounded with logical and mathematical errors.
On the other hand, the eminence of the global organizations which provide those indices shadows the inconsistencies found in indices.
Flaws of These Reports and IndicesIn these indices produced by preeminent providers, some or all of the following four basic errors can be observed are;
Ethical (deontological) Error: It is unethical to define such an index (HDI)
Logical (epistemological) Error: It is irrelevant/ meaningless/vain to define such an index (HDI)
Technical (Mathematics) Error: The index calculation technique is incorrect and inconsistent. (HDI)
Informatics (Statistics) Error: The index is based on incomplete, inadequate and inconsistent data source. (HDI)
HDI Suffers T
hose Four
Errors
As an Example, "Human Development Index - HDI" Developed By UNDP Exhibit Those Four Errors.
Using these indices as an input to one another in critical analysis makes prescription more difficult.
Here too we come across with an illusion technique that is used to create a perception:
Indices Creates The Consistency Illusion
These indices are based on a seemingly comprehensive and robust report.
However, on the contrary to the findings mentioned in the reports, these indices are full of errors.
We try to describe why those indices are defective and why they lead problematic misconceptions
Human Development Index (HDI)
Human Development Index is a measure prepared by the UNDP that shows life expectancy literacy rate education and income per capita in countries all over the world.
This index indicates how developed or underdeveloped a country is claimed in relation to this index.
The world authorities accept it without any dispute or objection.
Distribution was initially developed by a Pakistani economist MahbubulHaq in 1990 and since 1993, it has been presented within the annual Development Report by UN Development Program.
Human Development Index (HDI)
HDI INDEX 2014 COUNTRIES
HDI Made Up Inadequate Criteria
It is obvious that labelling ‘Humanitarian Development’ as being based on the three conventional criteria is inadequate.
Thus, disregarding major differences between countries concerning history, geography, culture, political system, economic system, legal system, health system, education system and the status of women will take us nowhere.
Unfortunately, this issue has not been pointed out by anyone in our country.
Relatively, only a small number of global critics have pointed it out this issue.
It is obvious that labelling ‘Humanitarian Development’ as being based on the three conventional criteria is inadequate.
Thus, disregarding major differences between countries concerning history, geography, culture, political system, economic system, legal system, health system, education system and the status of women will take us nowhere.
Unfortunately, this issue has not been pointed out by anyone in our country.
Relatively, only a small number of global critics have pointed it out this issue.
HDI Made Up Inadequate Criteria
Human Development Report 2014
The Human Development Report Office (HDRO) is pleased to inform that the 2014 Human Development Report 'Sustaining Human Progress: Reducing Vulnerability and Building Resilience' was launched in Tokyo, on 24 July 2014. The 2014
Report highlights the need for both promoting people's choices and protecting human development achievements.
The HDI is The Geometric Mean Of 3 Other Normalized Indices
The Human Development Index (HDI) is a summary measure of average achievement in key dimensions of human development:
1. A long and healthy life, (LifeExpectancy)
2. Being knowledgeable (MeanSchooling)
3. Have a decent standard of living (GNI ppp) The HDI is the geometric mean of normalized
indices for each of the three (3) dimensions.
HDRI Top Countries
Turkey’s Position on HDI
Gender Inequality Index (GII)
Gender Inequality was not on the agenda within the limits of the original version of this index.
However, the political and economic situation of the female gender should have been shown as a significant indicator of human development.
The deficit in the findings was detected and consequently, in 2010, GII index was added.
Structurally, it is compatible with the HDI and assumed to reflect the disparity within the three criteria.
New Indices GDI and GEM
On the other hand, the relation of this metrics with gender inequality is quite dubious.
The three ordinary criteria which vary from country to country are maternal health, political and economic contributions.
UNDP created other gender indices such as the GDI and GEM to cover the issue.
However, each of the indices is insignificant.
Debates on Indices Gradually, as these measures
(the GDI and the GEM) have been applied year after year, a debate on whether or not they have been as influential in promoting gender-sensitive development as was estimated initially arose.
Some of the major criticisms on both measures include the following points: First, they are highly specialized and difficult to interpret. Consequently, they are, often misinterpreted.
Debates on Indices
Both of them suffer from large data gaps. In other words, they do not provide accurate comparisons across countries.
Second, too many developmental factors have been integrated into a single measure.
Graphical Datamining Analysis of HDI
The criteria which made up the structure of HDI are mentally inconsistent.
But they are analytically inconsistent as well Each component index should contribute
meaningful effect on the structure of the HDI Graphical Datamining Analysis reflects that they
are fail to do this.
LifeExpectancy Against HDRI RankWe can see that LifeExpectancy gets lower in Lower
Segments But!
LifeExpectancy DensityGraph Factorized with Segments
We can see that there is no clear distinctions among segments related with LifeExpectancy. Higher segments
represents peaks around higher LifeExpectancies
LifeExpectancy x HDRI Rank
MeanSchooling Against HDRI RankWe can see that Mean Schooling gets lower in
Lower Segments But!
MeanSchooling DensityGraph Factorized with Segments
We can see that there is no clear distinctions among segments related with MeanSchooling. Higher segments
represents peaks around higher MeanSchoolings
Effect of The Mean Schooling
GNIPERCAP2011 Against HDRI RankIncome quite onviously overcome the HDI
GNIPERCAP2011 DensityGraph Factorized with Segments
Still There İs No Clear Distinction Between Segments But Polarity Quite Obvious
Indices Overdependent on Income
As a result, if these indices fall short, then we can estimate that the figures might hide more than they reveal.
Additionally, the GEM has also been criticized for being far too dependent on the income component of the measure for determining the overall GEM score and this is an overall defect of all UNDP indices.
Effect of The Income
GDP(PPP) Per Capita Income of The G20 Countries
Women Seats Percent of The Parliaments
Women Seats At Parliaments Against HDRI Rank
Women Seats with SegmentsWe can see that there is no clear distinctions among
segments related with Women Seats. Here higher segments doesn’t represents peaks around higher
Parliament Seats
Matermort Effect on The HDI
First published by the World Economic Forum in 2006, the 2014 report covers 142 major and emerging economies.
The Global Gender Gap Index is an index produced in addition to the proposed metric and report based on gender equality.
14 variables used to calculate the index are provided by international organizations such as ILO, UNDP and WHO. Hence, resources and technical deficiencies are also being imported.
However, global community considers the findings significant as if being published via serious indices.
Global Gendergap By Wef
The Global Gender Gap Index 2014
Its structure is similar to the UNDP Gender Inequality Index (GDII).
It indicates the situation of women in 142 countries which represents 93% of the world population with respect to four aspects.
1. Economic participation and facilities
2. Utilizing educational facilities
3. Participation in the political system
4. Health and survival
Gendergap Structure
Source inconsistencies
When the 2014 report is analysed with respect to ranking index, it can be observed that even the countries which cannot provide the required Data/ statistics, are ranked ahead of Turkey. Turkey is Ranked # 125 among 142 countries.
It is important to note that the ratio of female ranking with respect to professions have not been taken into account.
Conclusion
It is quite clear that those indices fail to serve their purposes.
They are semantically wrong, mathematically wrong and their data resources are insufficient.
But they still serve to discredit some countries like Turkey.
These indices and similar ones are implicitly employed in the sovereign ratings of countries.
The issue affects the behaviour of foreign investors and funding rates interest rates.
We think this is quite unfair.
http://hdr.undp.org/en
http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development-report-2014
http://www.weforum.org/issues/global-gender-gap
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gender_Inequality_Index
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gender_Empowerment_Measure
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Gender_Gap_Report
INTERNET RESOURCES
Küçüközmen, C. C. and Çınar F., (2014). “New Sectoral Incentive System and Credit Defaults: Graphic-Data Mining Analysis”, Submitted to the ICEF 2014 Conference, Yıldız Technical University in İstanbul, Turkey on 08-09 Sep. 2014.
Küçüközmen, C. C. and Çınar F., (2014). “Banking Sector Analysis of Izmir Province: A Graphical Data Mining Approach”, Submitted to the 34th National Conference for Operations Research and Industrial Engineering (YAEM 2014), Görükle Campus of Uludağ University in Bursa, Turkey on 25-27 June 2014.
Küçüközmen, C. C. ve Çınar F., (2014). “Finansal Karar Süreçlerinde Grafik-Datamining Analizi”, TROUGBI/DW SIG, Nisan 2014 İstanbul, http://www.troug.org/?p=684
Küçüközmen, C. C. ve Çınar F., (2014). “Görsel Veri Analizinde Devrim” Söyleşi, Ekonomik Çözüm, Temmuz 2014, http://ekonomik-cozum.com.tr/gorsel-veri-analizinde-devrim-mi.html.
Küçüközmen, C. C. ve Merih K., (2014). “Görsel Teknikler Çağı" Söyleşi, Ekonomik Çözüm, Temmuz 2014, http://ekonomik-cozum.com.tr/gorsel-teknikler-cagi.html
"Economist Online: Performance indices - International comparisons are popular, influential and sometimes flawed". http://www.economist.com Retrieved 2014-11-16.
RESOURCES
Global Indices of Gender Inequality and Turkey’s Positions
INDEX KOD INSTITUTION #TR
Human Development Index HDRI UNDP 69/187
GenderInequality Index GII UNDP 114/187
TheGender Empowerment Measure
GEM UNDP 2014 removed
Global Gendergap Index GGI WEF 125/142
Contact
@CORTEXIEN
@Riskonometri
@DataLabTR
@Riskanalitigi
@globinx
@fatma_cinar_ftm
@ckucukozmen
@RiskLabTurkey
tr.linkedin.com/in/fatmacinar/
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