Ipsos international populism research Global@dvisor

1 ©Ipsos.11

Global @dvisor: Power to the People?Part 2

January 2017

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©Ipsos.

2 ©Ipsos.

Contents

1

2

3

Society is broken and Confidence in institutions

Nativism

‘Populist’ measures

4

5

6

Voting behaviour

Country in decline

Is the system broken?

7 Exclusionism

Part 1: Is the system broken? (previously released)

SOCIETY IS BROKEN AND CONFIDENCE IN INSTITUTIONS

©Ipsos. 3

4 ©Ipsos.

Most feel society is broken (especially Poland, Spain, Brazil and Mexico)…GLOBAL @DVISOR: POWER TO THE PEOPLE?

Base: Base: 16,597 adults aged 16-64 across Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Peru, Poland, Serbia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the United States., November 2016

TotalPoland

SpainBrazil

MexicoSouth Africa

HungarySerbia

South KoreaArgentina

United StatesGermany

Great BritainPeru

TurkeyItaly

FranceSweden

AustraliaBelgiumCanada

IndiaIsraelJapan

58%79%

78%77%

76%74%

73%72%72%

70%66%

61%56%

55%53%53%

52%51%

47%38%

37%32%32%

31%

Strongly Agree/Tend to Agree

Q5 To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with the following statements – “Society is broken”

5 ©Ipsos.

How much confidence, if any, do you have in the each of the following…GLOBAL @DVISOR: POWER TO THE PEOPLE?

COMPLETE CONFIDENCE

FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENT

NOT VERY MUCH CONFIDENCE

NO CONFIDENCE AT ALL

The Justice System, including the courts

Banks

International Institutions

Political parties

4%

20%

5%

33%

38%

The Media

6%

30%

6%

33%

25%

6%

30%

5%

35%

24%

5%

32%

10%

35%

18%

4%

23%

5%

39%

28%

4%

28%

7%

39%

22%

Big Companies

The Government

2%

12%

6%

37%

43%


6 ©Ipsos.

Spain has the least confidence in International Institutions, as do many other Europeans – and Israel

GLOBAL @DVISOR: POWER TO THE PEOPLE?


TotalSpainIsrael

FranceItaly

SerbiaBelgium

GermanyGreat Britain

AustraliaUnited States

South KoreaArgentina

BrazilPolandTurkeyCanada

HungaryMexico

JapanPeru

SwedenIndia

South Africa

52%77%

66%65%

64%63%63%

59%59%

54%54%

53%52%52%

51%51%51%

49%46%

43%41%

39%29%

28%

No confidence/not very much confidence

Q11 How much confidence, if any, do you have in the each of the following? International Institutions

7 ©Ipsos.

Spain and Italy have the least confidence in their banksGLOBAL @DVISOR: POWER TO THE PEOPLE?


TotalSpainItaly

GermanyBelgiumHungary

IsraelFrance

Great BritainSweden

ArgentinaPolandBrazil

TurkeySerbia

MexicoAustralia

South KoreaUnited States

PeruCanada

JapanSouth Africa

India

59%92%

80%75%

74%72%72%

69%67%

63%60%60%60%

58%57%

56%53%

52%51%

50%45%

35%34%

18%


Q11 How much confidence, if any, do you have in the each of the following? Banks

8 ©Ipsos.

Confidence is marginally higher for the justice system, but very low in LATAMGLOBAL @DVISOR: POWER TO THE PEOPLE?


TotalArgentina

PeruMexicoSerbia

South KoreaSpain

HungaryItaly

PolandBelgium

South AfricaTurkey

IsraelBrazil

AustraliaFrance

CanadaGermany

United StatesGreat Britain

SwedenIndia

Japan

59%84%84%

83%75%

74%74%

67%64%

60%59%59%

58%57%

56%52%52%

49%48%48%

44%37%

34%32%


Q11 How much confidence, if any, do you have in the each of the following? The justice system including the courts

9 ©Ipsos.

Most lack confidence in big companiesGLOBAL @DVISOR: POWER TO THE PEOPLE?


TotalSpain

South KoreaIsrael

GermanySerbia

ArgentinaGreat Britain

BelgiumFrancePoland

HungaryCanada

AustraliaMexico

SwedenItalyPeru

United StatesTurkey

BrazilJapan

South AfricaIndia

61%82%

77%73%

72%70%

69%68%

66%66%

65%64%64%

61%60%60%60%

59%57%

53%51%

46%32%

31%


Q11 How much confidence, if any, do you have in the each of the following? Big Companies

10 ©Ipsos.

Two in three lack confidence in their mediaGLOBAL @DVISOR: POWER TO THE PEOPLE?


TotalHungary

SerbiaSpain

MexicoGreat Britain

IsraelItaly

AustraliaPoland

GermanySweden

FranceSouth Korea

United StatesBelgium

TurkeyJapanBrazil

ArgentinaCanada

PeruSouth Africa

India

68%87%

85%78%

76%75%75%

73%71%

70%70%

69%68%

67%67%

65%65%

64%63%

61%57%57%

51%39%


Q11 How much confidence, if any, do you have in the each of the following? The media

11 ©Ipsos.

Most countries are not confident about their government – especially negative in Mexico and Spain



TotalMexico

SpainSouth Korea

PolandHungary

South AfricaBrazil

ItalyIsrael

FranceBelgium

GermanySerbia

AustraliaGreat Britain

PeruSweden

United StatesCanada

JapanArgentina

TurkeyIndia

71%90%

89%84%

82%82%

81%81%

80%78%

77%75%

70%69%

66%66%66%

64%64%

60%60%

58%50%

35%


Q11 How much confidence, if any, do you have in the each of the following? The Government

12 ©Ipsos.

Of all institutions, countries have the least confidence in their political partiesGLOBAL @DVISOR: POWER TO THE PEOPLE?


TotalSpain

MexicoHungary

SerbiaIsraelPeru

PolandSouth Korea

ItalyBelgium

FranceBrazil

ArgentinaGermanyAustralia

Great BritainSouth Africa

United StatesSwedenCanada

JapanTurkey

India

81%94%

92%90%

89%88%88%

87%86%86%

85%83%

82%81%

80%79%79%

75%74%

72%71%

68%65%

59%


Q11 How much confidence, if any, do you have in the each of the following? Political parties

Click icon to add picture

NATIVISM

©Ipsos. 13

14 ©Ipsos.

Attitudes are divided on immigration – but most countries are against uncontrolled immigration


[Country] would be stronger if we stopped immigration

Immigrants take jobs away from real [nationality]

Immigrants take important social services away from real [nationality]

[Country] would be better off if we let in all immigrants who wanted to come here

34%

22%

6%

18%

9%

11%

When jobs are scarce, employers should prioritise hiring people of this country over immigrants

17%

17%

7%

22%

16%

20%

16%

19%

22%

6%

16%

21%

19%

19%

21%

7%

15%

18%

5%

8%

7%

21%

21%

37%

STRONGLY AGREE

SOMEWHAT AGREE

SOMEWHAT DISAGREE

STRONGLY DISAGREE


These days I feel like a stranger in my own country17%

21%

22%

6%

15%

19%

15 ©Ipsos.

Just over half think employers should prioritize hiring locals over immigrants – especially in Serbia, Hungary, Turkey and Israel



TotalSerbia

HungaryTurkey

IsraelPeru

ArgentinaIndia

South AfricaItaly

United StatesPolandBrazil

MexicoSouth Korea

AustraliaFrance

SpainGreat Britain

BelgiumCanada

GermanyJapan

Sweden

56%81%

76%74%

73%64%

63%62%

60%60%

58%57%

56%55%

54%51%51%

50%48%

46%45%45%

38%17%


Q9 When jobs are scarce, employers should prioritize hiring people of this country over immigrants

16 ©Ipsos.

Europeans tend to be more worried about immigration’s impact on social/public services (Turkey most worried again overall)



TotalTurkey

BelgiumHungary

IsraelArgentina

FranceItalyIndia

SpainUnited States

South AfricaGreat Britain

AustraliaSerbia

GermanyCanada

South KoreaBrazil

PeruSwedenMexicoPolandJapan

39%63%

50%50%50%

49%49%

47%46%46%46%

44%40%

39%37%37%

35%29%

27%27%

21%19%19%

17%


Q9 Immigrants take important social services away from real [nationality]

17 ©Ipsos.

Concern about immigration’s impact on jobs highest in Turkey, India and Argentina



TotalTurkey

IndiaArgentina

South AfricaUnited States

IsraelPeruItaly

BelgiumAustraliaHungary

SpainSouth Korea

FranceBrazil

CanadaGreat Britain

MexicoSerbiaPoland

GermanyJapan

Sweden

35%62%

51%48%

47%43%

42%41%

40%37%37%

36%35%

34%33%

32%32%32%

26%24%

23%22%

12%9%


Q9 Immigrants take jobs away from real [nationality]

18 ©Ipsos.

Most countries are against uncontrolled immigration , but people are split on whether immigration should be stopped – highest in Turkey, Israel, Hungary, Belgium and Italy


TotalIsrael

BelgiumHungary

SerbiaFrance

CanadaGreat Britain

ItalyTurkey

South AfricaPoland

United StatesSweden

GermanyAustralia

South KoreaSpain

ArgentinaMexico

BrazilPeru

JapanIndia

58%77%

72%72%72%

69%69%

67%65%

64%61%61%

57%56%56%56%

54%53%

51%48%

47%46%

36%29%

Strongly/Somewhat disagree

TotalTurkey

IsraelHungaryBelgium

ItalyIndia

FranceUS

SerbiaGermany

South AfricaArgentina

Great BritainPoland

AustraliaSpain

SwedenCanada

PeruMexico

BrazilJapan

South Korea

34%61%

52%49%

47%46%

45%40%

38%38%

37%37%

34%31%31%30%

28%27%

24%19%19%

17%14%

12%

Strongly/Somewhat agree

Q9 [Country] would be better off if we let in all immigrants who wanted to come here

Q9 [Country] would be stronger if we stopped immigration


19 ©Ipsos.

Overall people are split on whether or not they feel a stranger in their own country. High in Turkey, South Africa and Brazil, and amongst Western countries most prevalent in Italy, Belgium and the US


TotalTurkey

South AfricaItaly

BrazilUnited States

BelgiumSerbia

HungaryFrance

IndiaGermany

MexicoGreat Britain

AustraliaSpainPeru

ArgentinaPoland

South KoreaCanadaSweden

IsraelJapan

38%57%

54%49%

46%45%

44%43%

42%40%39%

38%37%

36%36%

36%35%35%

35%34%34%

22%20%

14%

Strongly/ Somewhat agree

Q14_1. Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? - These days I feel like a stranger in my own country


20 ©Ipsos.

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

ArgentinaAustraliaBelgiumBrazil

Canada

France

Germany

Hungary

India

Italy

Japan

Mexico

Poland

South Africa

South Korea

Spain

Sweden

Turkey

Great BritainUS

Israel

Peru

Nativism

Syst

em is

Bro

ken

Nativism vs. System is Broken: Categorizing Countries

Feel the system is broken and HIGHER nativist sentiment

Feel system is broken but LOWER nativist sentiment

SUPPORT FOR ‘POPULIST’ MEASURES

©Ipsos. 21

22 ©Ipsos.

Generally the balance of opinion is in favour of ‘populist’ measures – though more so for controlling the price of foodstuffs than nationalizing natural resources



The government should nationalize natural resources even if this means slower job growth

The government should control the price of the Basic Foodstuffs (Staples)

[Country] should stop terrorism at all costs even if that means ignoring people’s civil rights

20%

23%

24%

9%

14%

11%

[Country] should prioritize hiring [nationalities] over foreigners even if that means slower job growth

15%

21%

27%

13%

13%

11%

32%

26%

18%

7%

9%

8%

23%

22%

20%

7%

14%

13%

STRONGLY AGREE

TEND TO AGREE

TEND TO DISAGREE

STRONGLY DISAGREE

23 ©Ipsos.

Majority in favour of controlling price of foodstuffs – support tends to be higher in emerging economies, but is also high in France, Israel, Italy and Spain


TotalArgentina

IsraelIndia

SerbiaTurkey

HungarySpain

ItalyFrance

PeruBelgium

South AfricaMexico

BrazilSouth Korea

AustraliaCanada

Great BritainPoland

GermanyUS

SwedenJapan

58%80%

78%76%

73%70%70%

69%69%

66%66%

65%62%

60%56%

54%53%

51%49%

45%41%

31%25%

19%


Q14_2. Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? - The government should control the price of the Basic Foodstuffs (Staples)


24 ©Ipsos.

Countries with recent experience of terrorism are likely to prioritise stopping terrorism over protecting civil rights (such as Turkey, France, India, Israel and Belgium), also high in Serbia


TotalSerbia

TurkeyIndia

FranceIsrael

BelgiumPeru

HungarySwedenPoland


AustraliaGermany

South KoreaUS

BrazilItaly

MexicoCanada

SpainArgentina

Japan

45%74%

69%63%

59%57%

55%50%50%

48%47%

43%42%

41%40%

38%37%37%

35%34%

31%31%

30%25%


Q14_4. Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? - ... should stop terrorism at all costs even if that means ignoring people's civil rights


25 ©Ipsos.

Support for prioritising jobs for national citizens is especially high in Turkey, Israel, Serbia, LATAM, and India


TotalTurkey

IsraelSerbia

ArgentinaPeruIndia

South KoreaMexicoFrance

SpainItaly

BrazilPoland

USHungary

South AfricaAustralia

CanadaGermany

Great BritainJapan

BelgiumSweden

44%70%

63%62%

61%57%

56%54%54%

50%49%

48%43%

42%39%

39%37%

36%33%

32%30%

22%21%

10%


Q14_3. Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? - ... should prioritize hiring [nationalities] over foreigners even if that means slower job growth


26 ©Ipsos.

Highest support for nationalising natural resources in emerging economiesGLOBAL @DVISOR: POWER TO THE PEOPLE?

TotalSerbia

IndiaArgentina

PeruMexicoTurkey

ItalySpain

FranceGreat Britain

AustraliaHungary

IsraelBrazil

CanadaSouth Korea

PolandBelgium

South AfricaSweden

USGermany

Japan

36%63%

58%58%

48%44%

42%41%

39%36%

34%34%

32%32%

31%30%

29%28%28%

27%27%

27%22%

14%


Q14_5. Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? - The government should nationalize natural resources even if this means slower job growth


VOTING BEHAVIOUR

©Ipsos. 27

28 ©Ipsos.

So-called “populist” positions more attractive than unattractive – especially ‘standing up for the common people against the elite’, but also a party that prioritises nationals over immigrants – and radical change more popular than status quo. But a number of ‘pluralist’ positions are just as popular, like listening to alternative points of view/experts, or being prepared to make compromise.



A political party or leader that prioritises people born in [country] over immigrants

A political party or leader that stands up for common people against the elite

A political party or leader that wants to radically change the status quo

A political party with a leader who says what he/she thinks, even if it offends others

A political party or leader that has been in power before

22%

22%

12%

27%

8%

9%

36%

27%

12%

18%

4%

3%

20%

24%

24%

17%

9%

6%

20%

25%

13%

23%

10%

8%

A political party or leader that listens to what experts say is best for the country

A political party or leader that listens to alternative points of view

11%

18%

14%

31%

14%

11%

A political party or leader that wants to attract more foreign companies and workers to [country]

25%

27%

12%

25%

6%

5%

24%

32%

13%

21%

7%

4%

27%

29%

13%

22%

6%

3%

34%

33%

11%

16%

3%

2%

A political party or leader that is prepared to make compromises

A political party or leader that stands up for the rights of minorities MUCH MORE LIKELY

SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY

SOMEWHAT LESS LIKELY

MUCH LESS LIKELY

Q. Would each of the following make you more or less likely to vote for a political party or leader, or would it make no difference?

6%

12%

14%

43%

11%

14%

29 ©Ipsos.

On average a high proportion of people is more likely to vote for a political party or leader that stands up for common people against the elite


S o u t h K o re aJ a p a n

G er ma n yFra n c ePo la n d

S we d enB ra z il

T u r k e yI t a ly

B elg iu mI n d ia

G re a t B r it a inS o u t h Afr ic a

Arg e n tin aAu s t ra lia

Mexic oUS

S p a inCa n a d a

Pe ruS er b iaI s ra el

H u n g a ryT o t a l

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

13%17%

21%26%

28%27%

42%35%

34%31%

39%34%

40%42%

37%44%

40%43%

37%44%

49%36%

59%36%

25%26%

26%27%

26%31%

17%24%

25%31%

24%31%

26%25%

31%26%

30%28%

35%28%

24%38%

20%27%

30%20%

25%21%

21%23%

15%18%17%

17%18%

20%22%

18%19%

17%15%

13%16%

16%14%12%

6%18%

13%30%

16%22%

19%12%

17%9%

16%14%

8%11%

4%9%

10%6%8%

10%10%

4%9%

6%12%

12%

12%5%

8%3%

5%4%

4%9%

4%3%

7%3%

6%3%

2%3%

4%4%

2%4%

3%3%

2%4%

7%2%

3%2%2%

3%5%

6%3%

4%4%

1%2%3%2%

4%3%2%2%

4%1%

4%2%

3%

Much more likely to vote for that party or leader Slightly more likely to vote for that party or leader Slightly less likely to vote for that party or leader Much less likely to vote for that party or leader

Q19_1. I'd now like you to think about what is important and what is not important to you when deciding what party to vote for. Would each of the following make you more or less likely to vote for a political party or leader, or would it make no difference? - A political party or leader that stands up for common people against the elite?


30 ©Ipsos.

Just under half attracted by radically changing the status quo, especially high in SpainGLOBAL @DVISOR: POWER TO THE PEOPLE?

Ge r m anyPoland

Sout h Kor e aA ust r al ia

Isr ae lJapan

CanadaHungar ySw e de n

Fr anceGr e at Br it ain

A r ge nti naUS

Be lgiumBr azi l

It alySe r biaTur ke y

Pe r uIndia

Me xicoSout h A fr ica

SpainTot al

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

11%11%

9%11%13%12%

14%19%

12%18%

16%21%

19%18%

30%27%

24%29%

25%27%

31%31%

36%20%

16%17%

25%25%24%25%

25%19%

28%22%27%

24%26%28%

19%24%

26%23%

28%28%

24%26%

26%24%

26%30%

36%34%

17%20%

31%20%

23%22%

31%27%

24%26%

15%22%

29%20%

23%23%22%

21%15%

24%

17%26%

12%15%

12%32%

17%24%

20%32%

16%18%

14%19%

20%18%

12%12%

10%11%

9%5%

11%17%

15%10%

11%11%

17%8%

11%10%11%

4%8%

5%11%

7%9%

5%5%

7%10%

6%6%

11%7%

9%

14%5%

7%4%

16%3%

4%7%6%

2%2%

6%6%

3%7%

4%4%

10%4%

5%7%

6%4%

6%


Q19_2. I'd now like you to think about what is important and what is not important to you when deciding what party to vote for. Would each of the following make you more or less likely to vote for a political party or leader, or would it make no difference? - A political party or leader that wants to radically change the status quo?


31 ©Ipsos.

People are likely to say that the fact that a party or leader has been in power before has less influence on their voting behavior – but more of a turn-off in LATAM


J a p a nFra n c e

B elg iu mS er b ia

Arg e n tin aI t a ly

S o u t h K o re aPo la n d

S p a inH u n g a ry

Au s t ra liaB ra z il

Mexic oG re a t B r it a in

Ca n a d aPe ru

S we d enG er ma n y

T u r k e yI s ra el

USS o u t h Afr ic a

I n d iaT o t a l

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2%4%

2%4%

6%3%

4%4%5%

6%3%

8%6%

4%4%

7%3%3%

15%7%

10%15%

16%6%

8%7%

9%8%

6%9%

8%11%10%

9%14%

9%11%

13%14%

11%15%15%

9%18%

17%17%

23%12%

34%38%

50%37%

39%39%

35%36%

46%38%

58%35%

31%59%59%

33%54%

51%38%

48%40%

44%37%

43%

36%23%

17%11%

13%17%

14%22%

13%16%

11%19%

10%12%12%

7%18%

17%9%

8%10%

5%9%

14%

14%11%

9%14%

12%13%

22%16%

12%11%

9%11%

13%7%

7%18%

6%9%

10%10%

13%9%

9%11%

6%17%

13%26%

24%19%

17%11%

14%19%

5%17%

30%5%4%

24%3%

5%19%

9%10%

11%6%

14%


Q19_3. I'd now like you to think about what is important and what is not important to you when deciding what party to vote for. Would each of the following make you more or less likely to vote for a political party or leader, or would it make no difference? - A political party or leader that has been in power before


32 ©Ipsos.

On average close to half of people is more likely to vote for a political leader who says what he/she thinks, even if it offends others – especially Hungary and Turkey


JapanPoland

Br az i lIt aly

Me xicoSout h Kor e a

Ge r m anyUS

Sout h A fr icaGr e at Br it ain

Se r biaCanada

A ust r al iaBe lgium

IndiaPe r u

Fr anceSpain

A r ge nti naSw e de n

Isr ae lTur ke y

Hungar yTot al

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2%14%

19%16%

17%10%

14%20%19%

17%25%

18%18%

16%22%

24%23%

22%27%

20%21%

34%32%

20%

5%20%

18%21%

21%29%

26%23%24%29%

22%30%30%

31%26%

25%28%

29%26%

34%36%

26%28%

25%

30%22%19%

16%7%

10%16%

11%5%

12%10%

12%12%

15%10%

5%24%

12%10%

14%8%

10%15%

13%

19%22%

21%24%

30%30%

27%21%

23%28%

24%24%

25%25%

24%21%

20%23%23%

23%21%

21%17%

23%

21%16%

10%12%

11%14%

9%13%

15%10%

10%11%

10%7%

11%14%

4%8%7%

3%11%

4%6%

10%

23%6%

13%10%

15%6%

8%12%

14%4%

8%5%5%5%

7%12%

3%7%7%

6%3%

5%2%

8%

Slightly more likely to vote for that party or leader Don't know Slightly less likely to vote for that party or leader Much less likely to vote for that party or leader

Q19_4. I'd now like you to think about what is important and what is not important to you when deciding what party to vote for. Would each of the following make you more or less likely to vote for a political party or leader, or would it make no difference? - A political party with a leader who says what he/she thinks, even if it offends others


33 ©Ipsos.

On average just under half attracted by a political party or leader that prioritises people born in own country – again Hungary and Turkey top


Sw e de nJapan

Ge r m anySpain

Fr anceGr e at Br it ain

Br az i lA ust r al ia

CanadaBe lgium

Sout h Kor e aPolandMe xico

USIt aly

A r ge nti naIndiaPe r u

Se r biaIsr ae l

Sout h A fr icaTur ke y

Hungar yTot al

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

7%11%

15%17%

21%17%

20%18%

20%18%

14%18%

21%25%26%

28%28%

26%31%

22%29%

34%42%

22%

13%19%

17%19%

16%21%

18%21%

19%21%

27%24%

23%20%20%

20%24%

29%25%

34%27%

26%20%

22%

12%34%

15%12%

21%11%

19%9%9%

14%12%

21%8%

11%15%9%

9%5%

10%7%

4%8%

12%12%

22%27%

26%29%

23%27%

27%31%32%

26%34%

25%34%

27%23%

29%27%

28%27%

26%27%

22%17%

27%

11%7%

12%10%

6%11%

7%12%

10%9%

7%6%

8%9%7%

6%8%8%

3%7%

8%4%

5%8%

35%3%

14%13%13%

14%9%8%

10%12%

5%5%

7%8%

9%8%

5%5%5%5%5%

6%4%

9%


Q19_5. I'd now like you to think about what is important and what is not important to you when deciding what party to vote for. Would each of the following make you more or less likely to vote for a political party or leader, or would it make no difference? - A political party or leader that prioritises people born in ... over immigrants


34 ©Ipsos.

On average people are more likely to vote for a political party or leader that is prepared to make compromises – but less so in Italy and Israel


It alyJapanIndia

Fr anceIsr ae l

Be lgiumGe r m any

Sout h Kor e aSw e de n

Gr e at Br it ainPoland

USA ust r al ia

Se r biaA r ge nti na

Br az i lTur ke yCanada

Hungar ySpainPe r u

Sout h A fr icaMe xico

Tot al

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

9%5%

19%14%

12%13%14%

18%16%

15%21%

22%19%

25%35%

45%34%

20%35%35%

38%37%

41%24%

18%27%

22%30%

31%36%35%

36%38%

40%34%

34%38%

32%27%

18%29%

43%33%

35%32%33%

32%32%

18%32%

9%24%

10%15%15%

11%16%

11%20%

10%11%10%

9%17%

8%10%

13%10%

5%3%

7%13%

24%25%

28%23%

17%27%

28%27%

24%27%

18%21%

26%24%

18%11%

18%21%

12%16%

15%17%

14%21%

15%8%

15%7%

16%7%

6%5%

5%6%

4%9%

5%6%

5%6%

6%3%

5%3%

6%6%

4%7%

16%3%

7%4%

13%3%

1%3%

0%1%

3%4%

1%3%

6%3%

5%2%2%2%

4%3%3%

4%


Q19_6. I'd now like you to think about what is important and what is not important to you when deciding what party to vote for. Would each of the following make you more or less likely to vote for a political party or leader, or would it make no difference? - A political party or leader that is prepared to make compromises


35 ©Ipsos.

A political party or leader that listens to what experts say is best for the country is more likely to receive support across countries – but less so in richer countries


Sout h Kor e aGe r m any

JapanFr ance

Be lgiumUS

Gr e at Br it ainSw e de n

It alyPoland

Isr ae lCanada

A ust r al iaBr az i lIndia

Se r biaA r ge nti na

SpainTur ke yMe xico

Hungar ySout h A fr ica

Pe r uTot al

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

7%15%

16%17%

17%20%

19%16%

23%21%

14%19%20%

33%32%

44%40%

39%41%

45%47%

42%45%

27%

23%28%

30%29%30%

28%30%

35%28%

30%37%

34%34%

27%29%

23%28%31%

29%26%

25%30%

31%29%

13%17%

32%24%

15%10%

11%16%15%

19%8%

10%11%

17%7%

9%10%

10%8%6%

12%4%

5%13%

40%32%

18%23%

26%26%

31%26%

21%22%

27%28%

26%13%

19%17%

17%15%

16%15%

10%14%

14%22%

10%6%

3%5%

8%10%

7%6%

6%5%

9%7%6%

5%9%

3%1%

3%4%

4%4%

7%3%

6%

8%4%

1%3%

4%6%

2%3%

6%3%

4%2%3%

5%4%

3%4%

2%2%

4%2%

3%2%

3%


Q19_7. I'd now like you to think about what is important and what is not important to you when deciding what party to vote for. Would each of the following make you more or less likely to vote for a political party or leader, or would it make no difference? - A political party or leader that listens to what experts say is best for the country


36 ©Ipsos.

A political party or leader that wants to attract more foreign companies and workers to the country would divide support


Fr anceA ust r al ia

JapanIsr ae l

Ge r m anyBe lgium

CanadaUS

A r ge nti naSout h Kor e a

Tur ke yHungar ySw e de n

Gr e at Br it ainBr az i l

Me xicoSpainIt aly

PolandPe r u

Sout h A fr icaInd ia

Se r b iaTot al

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

5%4%

3%7%

5%8%8%8%

11%8%

12%11%

8%8%

16%15%

13%14%

12%15%

20%20%

25%11%

10%11%

12%11%15%

15%18%17%

15%19%

15%18%

21%23%

15%17%

19%19%

22%21%

25%27%

25%18%

24%12%

36%9%

17%16%

11%12%12%

13%11%

16%17%

12%20%

7%15%

19%22%

5%5%

9%10%

14%

27%37%

32%27%

42%34%

34%30%

29%39%

27%25%

39%38%

23%30%

36%27%

30%29%

28%25%

26%31%

14%20%

12%26%

14%15%

20%18%

18%14%

15%16%

10%11%

14%15%

11%11%

9%18%

12%12%

6%14%

20%16%

3%21%

7%13%

9%15%

16%7%

21%14%

5%7%

12%17%

7%10%

5%11%

10%8%7%

11%


Q19_8. I'd now like you to think about what is important and what is not important to you when deciding what party to vote for. Would each of the following make you more or less likely to vote for a political party or leader, or would it make no difference? - A political party or leader that wants to attract more foreign companies and workers to [country]


37 ©Ipsos.

Across countries, people are more likely to vote for a political party or leader that listens to alternative points of view


J a p a nPo la n d

B ra z ilFra n c e

S o u t h K o re aG er ma n y

I t a lyS we d en

I n d iaI s ra el

Au s t ra liaB elg iu m

G re a t B r it a inS er b ia

UST u r k e yCa n a d a

H u n g a ryMexic o

Pe ruArg e n tin a

S p a inS o u t h Afr ic a

T o t a l

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

20%25%

37%28%

21%26%

30%24%

36%21%

29%27%

29%38%

34%50%

36%44%

49%43%

47%43%

50%34%

34%32%

22%32%

39%36%

33%39%

29%45%

38%41%

40%31%

36%22%

37%30%

26%32%

28%33%

32%33%

30%19%16%

21%11%

14%14%

16%8%

8%9%

13%9%8%

9%7%

8%12%

6%4%

7%9%

2%11%

13%19%

17%15%

23%19%16%

18%17%

19%20%

16%19%19%

16%14%

16%9%

14%15%

13%11%

11%16%

3%4%

4%2%

4%4%

4%3%

6%5%

2%2%2%1%

3%4%

1%3%

3%3%

2%2%

3%3%

1%2%

5%1%2%2%

3%0%

4%2%2%1%1%

2%3%2%

1%2%

3%2%2%2%2%2%


Q19_9. I'd now like you to think about what is important and what is not important to you when deciding what party to vote for. Would each of the following make you more or less likely to vote for a political party or leader, or would it make no difference? - A political party or leader that listens to alternative points of view


38 ©Ipsos.

On balance people are more likely to vote for a political party or leader that stands up for the rights of minorities


J a p a nT u r k e yPo la n dS er b iaFra n c e

I s ra elG er ma n yH u n g a ry

B ra z ilI n d ia

B elg iu mS we d en

G re a t B r it a inUS

Au s t ra liaCa n a d a

S p a inI t a ly

Arg e n tin aMexic o

S o u t h K o re aPe ru

S o u t h Afr ic aT o t a l

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

3%18%

16%19%

18%17%

15%22%

34%27%

21%25%

21%28%

25%25%26%

33%35%

40%31%

38%41%

25%

15%20%

23%22%24%

27%30%

25%16%

24%30%

28%32%

27%31%32%

32%26%

27%24%

35%31%

29%27%

35%10%

21%9%

23%8%

16%13%

17%8%

15%11%

10%9%

9%10%

11%17%

9%6%

10%3%

6%12%

31%33%

30%40%

27%26%

32%24%

19%27%

26%29%

30%26%

26%26%23%

17%20%

19%17%

18%17%

25%

12%9%

7%5%

4%12%

5%8%

6%9%

6%2%

5%6%

5%4%

5%3%

6%6%

4%5%

4%6%

4%10%

3%5%

4%10%

2%9%8%

6%3%

4%2%

5%3%3%

4%4%4%

6%3%

4%4%

5%


Q19_10. I'd now like you to think about what is important and what is not important to you when deciding what party to vote for. Would each of the following make you more or less likely to vote for a political party or leader, or would it make no difference? - A political party or leader that stands up for the rights of minorities


PART 1: IS THE SYSTEM BROKEN?

(PREVIOUSLY RELEASED)

©Ipsos. 39

COUNTRY IN DECLINE

©Ipsos. 40

41 ©Ipsos.

Overall, there is a sense that society is broken and that their country is in decline (though people tend to be optimistic that this is recoverable). People are also on balance likely to feel that their generation has had a worse life than their parents and are even more pessimistic for the future prospects for today’s youth.


“To what extent, if at all, do you feel that your generation will have had a better or worse life than your parents’ generation, or will it have been the same?

“…is in decline”

29%

29%

19%

10%7%

5%AGREE VERY MUCH

AGREE SOMEWHAT

NEITHER AGREE OR DISAGREE

DISAGREE SOMEWHAT

DISAGREE VERY MUCH

DON'T KNOW

“…society is broken” “Do you think [country] can recover from it’s decline or is it irreversible”*

9%

22%

19%26%

18%5% MUCH BETTER

SLIGHTLY BETTER

ABOUT THE SAME

SLIGHTLY WORSE

MUCH WORSE

DON'T KNOW

“And to what extent, if at all, do you feel that today’s youth will have had a better or worse life

than their parents’ generation, or will it have been about the same?”

28%

29%20%

10%8% 5%

AGREE VERY MUCH

AGREE SOMEWHAT

NEITHER AGREE OR DISAGREE

DISAGREE SOMEWHAT

DISAGREE VERY MUCH

DON'T KNOW

67%

15%

18%CAN RECOVER

IS IRREVERSIBLE

DON'T KNOW

7%

19%

20%28%

20%

6% MUCH BETTER

SLIGHTLY BETTER

ABOUT THE SAME

SLIGHTLY WORSE

MUCH WORSE

DON'T KNOW

Base: 16,597 adults aged 16-64 across Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Peru, Poland, Serbia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the United States., November 2016.* Asked of all those who think their country is in decline

42 ©Ipsos.

Over half think their country is in decline (although not yet irreversible)


“…is in decline” “Do you think [country] can recover from its decline or is it irreversible”*

28%

29%

20%

10%

8%5%

AGREE VERY MUCHAGREE SOMEWHATNEITHER AGREE OR DISAGREEDISAGREE SOMEWHATDISAGREE VERY MUCHDON'T KNOW

67%

15%

18%

CAN RECOVER IS IRREVERSIBLE

DON'T KNOW

Base: Base: 16,597 adults aged 16-64 across Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Peru, Poland, Serbia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the United States., November 2016.* Asked of all those who think their country is in decline

43 ©Ipsos.

Majority in 14 nations think their country is in decline – especially South Africa, South Korea, Italy and Brazil….



TotalSouth AfricaSouth Korea

ItalyBrazil

HungaryMexico

SpainFrance

BelgiumSerbia

United StatesArgentina

Great BritainTurkey

SwedenPoland

AustraliaGermany

PeruIsraelJapan

CanadaIndia

57%77%

73%73%

72%70%

69%69%

67%64%

61%60%

58%57%

55%53%

50%49%

47%44%

42%40%

38%22%


Q5 To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with the following statements – “Your country is in decline”

44 ©Ipsos.

…But are optimistic that it can recover (although less so in Japan, Belgium and Germany)


T ota lPe ru

Me x i c oIs ra e lIndi a

Arg e nti naB ra z i l

S out h A f r i c aT urk e y

S w e de nPol a nd

U ni t e d S t a t e sS e rbi a

Aus t ra l i aS pa i nI t a l y

H ung a ryCa na daF ra nc e

G re a t B r i ta i nG e rm a nyB e l g i um

S out h K ore aJ a pa n

67%85%84%84%

82%81%

80%78%

76%72%

69%68%66%

66%65%

61%60%60%60%60%

53%52%51%

24%

15%5%

9%2%

15%8%

11%9%

15%11%

13%10%

16%11%

19%19%

15%14%

17%17%

28%29%

21%34%

Can recover Irreversible

Q6 And do you think [country] can recover from its decline or is it irreversible ?

Base: 9,525 adults aged 16-64 across Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Peru, Poland, Serbia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the United States., November 2016

45 ©Ipsos.

And there is significant pessimism for current and future generations in France, Belgium, Hungary, South Korea, Italy and Spain


TotalHungary

SerbiaFrance

ItalySouth Korea

SpainJapan

BelgiumUnited States

CanadaGermany


TurkeyIsrael

MexicoSweden

AustraliaBrazil

PolandArgentina

IndiaPeru

44%65%

63%61%

60%56%56%

54%53%

47%46%

44%43%

41%40%

39%38%38%38%

35%33%

30%22%

19%

Slightly/Much worse

TotalFrance

BelgiumSpain

South KoreaHungary

Great BritainItaly

JapanCanada

GermanyUnited States

SerbiaTurkey

SwedenAustralia

IsraelSouth Africa

BrazilMexicoPoland

ArgentinaIndiaPeru

48%67%

66%65%

63%60%

56%55%55%

53%53%

52%50%

47%45%

44%44%

42%38%

37%36%

30%22%

20%

Slightly/Much worse

Q7 To what extent, if at all, do you feel that your generation will have had a better or worse life than your parents’ generation, or will it have been the same?

Q8 And to what extent, if at all, do you feel that today’s youth will have had a better or worse life than their parents’ generation, or will it have been about the same?


SYSTEM IS BROKEN

©Ipsos. 46

47 ©Ipsos.

Strong feeling in many countries that the people in charge don’t care about ‘people like me’, and instead favour rich and powerful.


Politicians should be able to say what’s on their minds regardless of what anyone else thinks about their views

To fix [country], we need a strong leader willing to break the rules

[Country] needs a strong leader to take the country back from the rich and powerful

Traditional parties and politicians don’t care about people like me

42%

27%

15%

5%

6%

4%

The [country’s] economy is rigged to advantage the rich and powerful

36%

29%

18%

6%

7%

5%

28%

21%

19%

6%

11%

14%

40%

23%

17%

6%

7%

6%

37%

27%

18%

6%

7%

4%

STRONGLY AGREE

SOMEWHAT AGREE

SOMEWHAT DISAGREE

STRONGLY DISAGREE

31%

29%

21%

7%

8%

4%

Experts in this country don’t understand the lives of people like me


48 ©Ipsos.

Most feel the system favours the rich and powerful – especially Mexico, Peru, Hungary, Israel and Spain



TotalMexico

PeruHungary

SpainIsrael

AustraliaIndia

South KoreaFrance

United StatesBrazil

Great BritainItaly

CanadaTurkey

ArgentinaSouth Africa

BelgiumSerbiaPolandJapan

GermanySweden

63%81%

74%72%72%72%

71%71%

70%70%

69%68%

67%67%

65%63%

62%60%

59%59%

53%45%

34%31%


Q10 [Country] needs a strong leader to take the country back from the rich and powerful

TotalHungary

MexicoSerbiaIsraelPeru

SpainItaly

South KoreaBelgium

FranceBrazil

United StatesTurkey

AustraliaPoland

Great BritainGermanyArgentina

South AfricaIndia

CanadaJapan

Sweden

69%83%

82%81%

80%79%79%

75%74%

71%70%

69%69%

68%68%

67%67%

66%65%

64%63%

59%55%

39%


Q10 The [country’s] economy is rigged to advantage the rich and powerful

49 ©Ipsos.

Most people feel politicians don’t care about them, especially parts of LATAM and continental Europe



TotalMexico

PeruFrance

SpainHungary

ItalyPolandSerbiaBrazil

United StatesArgentina

South AfricaSouth Korea

IndiaBelgium

TurkeyAustralia

Great BritainIsrael

CanadaGermany

SwedenJapan

64%78%

77%76%

75%73%

72%70%70%

69%66%

65%65%65%

64%63%

61%61%

58%57%

56%53%

42%39%


Q10 Traditional parties and politicians don’t care about people like me

50 ©Ipsos.

Close to two-thirds on average favour outspoken politiciansGLOBAL @DVISOR: POWER TO THE PEOPLE?


TotalArgentina

HungaryIsrael

SerbiaSpainPeru

PolandFrance

South KoreaBelgium

IndiaMexico

GermanyGreat Britain

United StatesAustralia

ItalySwedenCanadaTurkey

BrazilSouth Africa

Japan

65%79%79%79%

76%74%

72%71%

70%68%

66%66%

64%64%64%

60%59%59%

58%57%

53%51%

49%47%


Q10 Politicians should be able to say what’s on their minds regardless of what anyone else thinks about their views

51 ©Ipsos.

Similarly most people feel misunderstood by experts, especially Spain, France and MexicoGLOBAL @DVISOR: POWER TO THE PEOPLE?


TotalSpain

FranceMexico

HungaryPeru

ArgentinaItaly

PolandUnited States

TurkeySouth Africa

AustraliaIndia

Great BritainCanada

BelgiumSouth Korea

BrazilIsrael

SerbiaGermany

JapanSweden

60%74%

73%72%

70%69%

67%65%

64%64%

62%60%60%60%

59%58%

57%55%55%

53%52%

46%45%

38%


Q10 Experts in this country don’t understand the lives of people like me

52 ©Ipsos.

Big variation in desire for a strong leader willing to break the rules - especially high in France



TotalFrance

IsraelItaly

South KoreaTurkey

IndiaPoland

BelgiumPeru

AustraliaGreat Britain

BrazilSerbia

South AfricaHungary

MexicoCanada

United StatesJapan

ArgentinaSpain

SwedenGermany

49%80%

69%68%

66%66%

65%60%

54%51%

50%50%

48%44%

42%42%

41%41%

40%39%

36%35%

23%21%


Q10 To fix [country], we need a strong leader willing to break the rules

Click icon to add picture

EXCLUSIONISM

©Ipsos. 53

54 ©Ipsos.

On balance, people are still more likely to feel that opening up their country to foreign business and trade is an opportunity rather than a threat, but across the world people are split on whether their country should protect itself or open up more to the world.



26%

42%

31%

37%

OPENING UP [COUNTRY’S] ECONOMY TO FOREIGN BUSINESSES AND FOREIGN TRADE IS A THREAT TO [YOUR COUNTRY]

OPENING UP [COUNTRY’S] ECONOMY TO FOREIGN BUSINESSES AND FOREIGN TRADE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR [YOUR COUNTRY]

[COUNTRY] NEEDS TO TAKE MORE STEPS TO PROTECT ITSELF FROM TODAY’S WORLD

[COUNTRY] NEEDS TO TAKE MORE STEPS TO OPEN ITSELF UP TO TODAY’S WORLD

BOTH/DON’T KNOW

BOTH/DON’T KNOW

32%

32%

55 ©Ipsos.

People tend to view globalisation as an opportunity, rather than a threat – but not in Italy and France


To t al

P e r u

So u t h A fr i c a

G r e at Br i t ai n

Swe d e n

P o l an d

H u n gar y

I sr ae l

Sp ai n

Se r b i a

M e x i c o

A r ge n tin a

Br azi l

I n d i a

Un i t e d S t at e s

Tu r ke y

C an ad a

Be l g i u m

So u t h K o r e a

G e r m an y

A u st r al i a

I t al y

J ap an

F r an c e

26%21%

20%20%

18%19%

21%25%

20%24%

29%34%

21%28%29%

32%26%

29%22%

28%31%

38%22%

33%

42%55%

54%54%

51%50%

50%50%49%49%

46%45%44%44%

39%39%

37%37%

35%34%33%

28%27%

26

Opening up [country's] economy to foreign businesses and foreign trade is a threat to [your country]Opening up [country's economy to foreign businesses and foreign trade is an opportunity for [your country]


56 ©Ipsos.

Peru, Mexico and Argentina want to open up more to the world – but North Americans more likely to say they should protect themselves from the world


To t al

Un i t e d S t at e s

C an ad a

I sr ae l

A u st r al i a

Br azi l

F r an c e

I t al y

G e r m an y

Be l g i u m

So u t h K o r e a

A r ge n tin a

H u n gar y

J ap an

Tu r ke y

I n d i a

Se r b i a

Swe d e n

M e x i c o

G r e at Br i t ai n

So u t h A fr i c a

Sp ai n

P o l an d

P e r u

31%47%

39%39%

37%36%36%36%

34%33%33%

32%32%32%

31%29%

28%27%

26%25%

24%22%

21%19%

37%25%25%

34%25%

22%24%

27%25%

32%28%

47%38%

24%38%38%

4540%

56%43%

45%51%

48%62

Agree most that [country] needs to take more steps to protect itself from today’s world Agree most that [country] needs to take more steps to open itself up to today’s world


57 ©Ipsos.

MethodologyGLOBAL @DVISOR: POWER TO THE PEOPLE?

• These are the findings of a Global @dvisor survey into the political mood around the world. In total 16,597 interviews were conducted between October 21 – November 4 among adults aged 18-64 in the US and Canada, and adults aged 16-64 in all other countries.

• The survey was conducted in 23 countries around the world via the Ipsos Online Panel system. The countries reporting herein are Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Peru, Poland, South Africa, South Korea, Serbia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the United States of America.

• Between 500 and 1000+ individuals participated on a country by country basis via the Ipsos Online Panel. The sample was 1000+ in Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Japan, Spain and the United Stated of America. In all other countries the sample was 500+. The precision of Ipsos online polls is calculated using a credibility interval with a poll of 1,000 accurate to +/- 3.5 percentage points and of 500 accurate to +/- 5.0 percentage points. For more information on Ipsos’ use of credibility intervals, please visit the Ipsos website.

• In countries where internet penetration is approximately 60% or higher the data output generally reflects the overall population. Of the 23 countries surveyed online, 17 yield results that are balanced to reflect the general population: Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Serbia, Spain, Sweden, Great Britain and the United States. The 6 remaining countries surveyed – Brazil, India, Mexico, Peru, South Africa and Turkey - have lower levels of internet connectivity and reflect online populations that tend to be more urban and have higher education/income than the general population.

• Where results do not sum to 100, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses or the exclusion of don't knows or not stated responses.

• Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.

58 ©Ipsos.

ABOUT IPSOS

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Data & Analytics

Ipsos international populism research Global@dvisor