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This document provides the formula for compound annual growth rates and also a derivation for how to calculate growth rate for a period when you are provided with growth rate for two different periods. After derivation of formula i have illustrated how to use the formula and alternatives for the formula. The formula derived by me also provides relationship between the growth rates for two consecutive periods
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Derivation of Formula for calculating compound annual growth rate for period when two consecutive growth rates are provided with.
Formula for calculating compound annual growth rate is
r1=[{V 1V 0 }1 /n1
−1]∗100........................................(1)
Here r1 is the compound annual growth rate for n1 duration for first period and V1 and V0 are the values for first period and initial time respectively.
Similarly we can write
r2=[{V 2V 0 }1 /n2
−1]∗100......................................(2)
Note that both the growth rates r1 and r2 are calculated from base year value of V0.
By rearrangement of (1) we can write
r1100
+1=[ V 1V 0 ]1/n1
Let
r1100
+1=R1 and therefore
R1=[V 1V 0 ]1/n1
R1n1=[V 1
V 0]
...................(3)
Similarly we can write for (2)
R2n2=[ V 2V 0
]........................(4)
Upon dividing (3) by (4) result is
R1n1
R2n2
=V 1/V 0
V 2/V 0
R1n1
R2n2
=V 1V 2
V 1V 2
=R1n1
R2n2
[V 1V 2 ]
1n2−n1=[ R1n1R2n2 ]
1n2−n1
.....................(5)
Let n2−n1=e and always that n2 > n1 and e>0
Now (5) can be rewritten as following
{[ V 2V 1 ]1e−1}∗100={[ R2n2R1n1 ]
1e
−1}∗100...............(6)
Now left hand side (LHS) of (6) can be written as gw because LHS is the growth rate in values from V1
to V2 during duration ‘e’ and therefore (6) can be rewritten as following
gw={[ R2n2R1n1 ]1e
−1}∗100
gw={[ R2e+n1R1n1 ]
1e
−1}∗100
gw={[ R2e R2n1R1n1 ]
1e
−1}∗100
gw={[R2e( R2R1 )n1]1e−1}∗100
and
Then
gw={R2 (R2R1 )n1e−1}∗100
Now how to use this formula?Suppose you have been provided with data on growth rates as following
For period 2000 to 2004 compound annual growth rate of a firm was 6% per annum and for period 2000 to 2011 the growth rate was 4%. Then how do we know that what was the growth rate during period 2004-2011?
In this problem, r2 =4% and r1=6% therefore R2 = 1.04and R1=1.06 and n1=5, n2 =12 and e=7.
Now we apply the formula
gw={1 .04 ( 1.041 .06 )57−1}∗100
gw= {1.04 (0 .981 )0 .714−1}∗100
gw= {1 .04∗0 .986−1 }∗100 gw= {1 .02594−1 }∗100=2.594%
What is the alternative way?Another way of solving this problem without formula is first calculate the value of 100 after 5 years with growth rate of 6% per annum.
=100*(1.06)^5=133.8226 then calculate the value of 100 after 12 years with growth rate of 4% per annum.
=100*(1.04) ^12=160.103222
Here n2= e+n1
Now again apply compounding formula and this time future value is 160.103222 and present value is 133.8226.Now rate of growth is unknown and duration is 7 years.
160.103222=133.8226(1+r) ^7
(160.103222/133.8226)= (1+r) ^7
(1.19638441) = (1+r) ^7
(1.19638441)^ (1/7) = (1+r)
1.02594574=1+r
r=0.2594Hence growth rate was 2.594%