Upload
machine-learning-valencia
View
500
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Artificial Intelligence:Progress and ChallengesTom Dietterich
Tool AI
AI Progress
High-Stakes Autonomy
Near-TermRisks
AI Progress
?
TechnologicalUnemployment
What is AI?Smart Software
vision, speech, touch choosing actions to achieve
goals learning understanding and predicting
behavior
Credit: Andrej Karpathy, Li Fei-Fei
Exciting Progress: Perception
2013 2014 2015
23% Word Error
8%
Google Speech Recognition
Credit: Fernando Pereira & Matthew Firestone, Google
Google Translate from Images
Credit: www.bbc.com
“a black and white cat is sitting on a chair."
Credit: Jeff Donahue, Trevor Darrell
Exciting Progress: PerceptionDeep
Exciting Progress: Reasoning (SAT)
Credit: Vijay Ganesh
Exciting Progress: Reasoning (Poker)
Moore’s Law
Heads-Up Limit Texas Hold’em
Rhode Island
Hold’em
Credit: Michael Bowling
Exciting Progress: Chess & Go
Monte Carlo Tree Search
Credit: Martin Mueller
Exciting Progress: Collaborative Systems
Red: Best AI solutionYellow: “Foldit Void Crushers
Group” solutionBlue: X-Ray Crystal Structure
solution
Sept 20, 2011
What’s Next?Tool AI• Google, Bing• IBM’s Watson• Siri, Cortana, Google Now• Google Translate• Skype Real-Time Translation
Autonomous AI• AI Hedge Funds• High Speed Trading• Self-Driving Cars• Automated Surgical Assistants• Smart Power Grid• Autonomous Weapons
Tool AI
AI Progress
Tool AI: What’s Next?Deeper understanding of video:• What type of play?• Who carried the ball?• Was the pass complete?• Which players made mistakes?• Which players achieved their
goals?
Credit: Alan Fern
Tool AI: What’s Next?Deeper understanding of text:• Is Yoadimnadji dead? Yes• Is he in Paris? Yes• Is he married? Yes• Where is his wife? In Paris• Where will she be in the future? In
Chad
“Pascal Yoadimnadji has been evacuated to France on Wednesday after falling ill and slipping into a coma in Chad. His wife, who accompanied him to Paris, will repatriate his body to Chad.”
Tool AI: What’s Next?Linking Big Data to Medicine:• Web search logs can detect
adverse drug interaction events better than FDA’s existing Adverse Drug Interaction Reporting Service
White, Harpaz, Shah, DuMouchel, Horvitz, 2014
Tool AI: What’s Next?Improved Personal Assistants that combine• Knowledge of recipes (lasagna
ingredients)• Wine pairing recommendations
(cabernet or pinot noir)• Brother’s home address• Routes to brother’s home address• Stores along that route that have
cheap cabernet or pinot in stockto produce a plan
Source: Wired August 12, 2014
AI Progress
High-Stakes Autonomy
Near-TermRisks
Autonomous AI Systems: What’s Next?• AI Hedge Funds• High Speed Trading• Self-Driving Cars• Automated Surgical Assistants• Smart Power Grid• Autonomous Weapons
The Motivations The Dangers
High-Stakes Autonomy
Advances in AI enable exciting applications
There is a great potential to save lives
There is a need to act at lightning speed
Bugs Cyber Attacks Mixed Autonomy Misunderstanding User
Commands
Software Quality Many AI methods give only probabilistic
guarantees
Research Question: How can we ensure safe performance of AI-based autonomous systems?
"a young boy is holding a baseball bat." Credit: Andrej Karpathy, Li Fei-Fei
Cyber Attacks High-stakes systems large and enticing “attack surface”
Cyber Attacks on AI SystemsTraining Set Poisoning:
Make yourself invisible to a computer vision system
Make yourself look “normal” to an anomaly detection system
Bias the behavior of the system Bid slightly higher on certain stocks Prefer to show certain advertisements
Credit: Katherine Hannah
Mixed Autonomy Auto-pilot unexpected hand-off to
pilots Pilots lack situational awareness
and make poor decisions
Question: How can we make imperfect autonomous systems safe?
AF447 Pilots Final ConversationPilot 1: “What the...how is it we are going down like this?”Pilot 2: “See what you can do with the commands up there, the primaries and so on...Climb climb, climb, climb
Credit: www.aviationlawmonitor.com
Incomplete/incorrect Commands “Fetch me some water”
Question: How can the computer reliably infer what the user intended?
Credit: www.disney.com
Trustable AI for AutonomyMany research teams are at work
Verification and Self-Monitoring
Knowledge of Desirable and Acceptable Behavior
Improved User Interaction
AI Progress
TechnologicalUnemployment
1980 1990 2000 201040
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
US Industrial Production
US Manufacturing EmploymentInde
x: 0
1.19
72 =
100
Similar trends are seen worldwide
Source: Andrew McAfee / US Federal Reserve
US is Producing More with Fewer Employees
As AI advances, many existing jobs have the potential to be automated
Source: Frey & Osborne, 2014: “The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?”
Three Reasons to be Optimistic AI often complements human intelligence rather than
replacing it
Increases in productivity increases in wealth increases in consumption demand for new goods and experiences new kinds of jobs
A focus on current jobs, underestimates the creativity of people to develop new products and services, new industries, etc.
What will be the new jobs? Jobs involving hard-to-automate skills
high levels of social skills deep understanding of human experience and
emotion high levels of creativity
Jobs where human + machine is better than either alone Augmented Cognition combining strategic thinking with detailed
tactics: “Centaur Chess” combining physical dexterity with information
access: augmented reality vehicle maintenance
Source: Tartajubow.blogspot.com
Source: metaio / designboom.com
Historical and cultural artifacts become more valuable
AI cannot produce another Roman Empire, Greek Civilization, or Al Andaluz
AI + Augmented Reality may make tourism even more compelling and meaningful
Credit: http://www.hellovisitspain.com
Life-Long Personal AI Assistant? Human-machine pairs work best when they
know each other very well strengths and weaknesses easy communication preferred ways of sharing tasks
A vision: Student enrolls in technical college Student is given an AI personal assistant The student and the assistant train together
Learn how to solve problems jointly and efficiently Employer hires the pair together
source: starwars.wikia.com
Tool AI
AI Progress
High-Stakes Autonomy
Near-TermRisks
AI Progress
?
TechnologicalUnemployment
Some people are very afraidDecember 2, 2014
October 27, 2014
AI MisconceptionsIntelligence is Not a Threshold Phenomenon
Progress in AI is the accumulation of thousands of incremental improvements
Robots will not “wake up” one day and be “truly intelligent” or “superintelligent” or “conscious” or “sentient”
“Tool AI” systems are already smarter than people along many dimensions
AI MisconceptionsAutonomy Will Not Happen Spontaneously
There is no threshold above which AI systems suddenly have free will Systems need to be designed and built to be autonomous They must be given access to resources (money, power, materials,
generalized task markets, communications with people)
The danger of “Autonomous AI” is not “AI”
but “Autonomy”
An autonomous system can be dangerous for many reasons: It could consume vast resources It could injure or kill people It could apply AI to help it do these things
How Can We Maintain Control of Autonomous Systems?Case 1: Decisions are made at human time scalesExamples:
Aircraft autopilot Most factory robots Surgical robots
Humans can monitor and respond to problems Similar to supervision in a human organization
Case 2: Very High Speed Decision Making
Examples: stock market power grid self-driving cars
18,520 market crashes and spikes have been detected 2006-2011 below the 950ms level
Flash Crash (10.5.2010)
Automated Monitoring Signals might predict or
detect flash crashes Example: Inventory of High-
Speed Traders
Normal market Flash crash
Source: Vuorenmaa, Tommi; Wang, Liang, 2013
When Monitoring Detects A Problem: Then What?Stock market:
Halt trading Unwind transactions
Self-driving car: Slow down and pull over in a safe spot
Smart Electric Grid: ??
We Should Never Create aFully Independent Autonomous System
By definition, a fully independent autonomous system is a system over
which we have no control
Summary AI has been making steady progress Exciting applications of Tool AI are coming soon Potential applications of Autonomous AI are being proposed
Many of these involve high-stakes decision making There are many risks that must be addressed before it will be safe to field such
systems Information technology—including AI—may be contributing to
unemployment but the picture is far from clear Tool AI will not spontaneously become autonomous We must find ways to control autonomous AI systems