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Chapter 2. Africa global trade patterns
Extracted from
African Agricultural Trade Status Report
2017
7
CHAPTER 2. AFRICA GLOBAL TRADE PATTERNS
Fousseini Traore IFPRI- Markets, Trade and Institutions Division, Regional Office for West and
Central Africa, Dakar, Senegal
Daniel Sakyi, Department of Economics, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and
Technology (KNUST), Kumasi, Ghana
2.1 Introduction The trade performance of African countries has improved in recent years, though it is still below
expectations when compared to other regions of the world. This notwithstanding, and although the
region is currently considered as one of the fastest growing regions in the world, Africa’s trade
performance continues to be dominated by the agricultural sector. Overall, Africa’s
competitiveness has slightly improved and the trends in its exports have undergone major
diversification since 1998. This has become possible due to the region’s (i) participation in
multilateral and bilateral talks (WTO-DDA; EPAs, etc.), (ii) benefits received from preferential
trade agreements (AGOA, EBA, etc.), and (iii) deeper regional integration (FTAs, customs unions,
etc.). In addition, technological transfer from developed countries to the region has contributed
significantly to transformation of the agricultural sector and trade.
Although the agriculture sector still remains key with the potential to be an important player in
global food markets and continues to play a significant role in terms of value-added (NEPAD,
2015)1, the share of agricultural exports in total exports has declined since 1998. This has remained
so because the sector is still characterized by low productivity, which tends to pose a major setback
to Africa’s economic development and structural transformation. This presents critical challenges
for Africa given the continent’s rich natural resource endowments and its potential to transform
and export high valued agricultural products both within the continent and abroad. It is, therefore,
not surprising that the need to develop and transform the agricultural sector in Africa was heavily
discussed in the 2014 Malabo Declaration, as this was crucial to accelerate Africa’s development
campaign. Therefore, the commitment to boosting intra-African trade in agricultural commodities
and services (i.e. to triple, by the year 2025, intra-African trade in agricultural commodities and
services) is seen as key to growth because its expansion will trickle down to other sectors of the
region’s economy.
1 In fact, agriculture accounts for a significant portion of GDP in Africa (about 20% in 2015 (World Bank, 2015)),
and therefore presents considerable potential for supporting broader growth and the eradication of poverty and hunger.
8
In recent years the trends in international trade were largely driven by the sluggish economic
growth and the persisting economic and political turmoil in various parts of the world; from 2011
to 2014 world trade grew at a rate of less than 2 percent per year, due to generally lower economic
growth but also because trade has been much less responsive to output growth. This was
particularly the case for Africa (UNCTAD, 2015). Regarding agricultural products, while world
agricultural exports grew annually at 7% between 2010 and 2014, Africa’s exports grew at 5%,
highlighting more resistance for agricultural trade compared to trade in manufactures which grew
at 4% (WTO, 2015).
African agricultural export shares in global trade have increased steadily between 1998 and 2013,
with a diverging pattern among the main Regional Economic Communities (RECs). The ECCAS
and SADC regions registered a relative decline, while COMESA showed stability and ECOWAS
is characterised by huge short run volatility. However, the region’s imports still remain higher than
its exports in value terms, yielding a growing trade deficit. The main drivers of this surge in imports
are rapid population growth and urbanisation, income changes due to economic growth, and
changes in dietary patterns. Among the RECs, the SADC region is the only one registering a
consistent trade surplus over the last decade.
One noticeable feature is the direction of Africa’s trade to and from the European market that has
constantly showed a downward trend, while trade with regional partners and Asian countries keeps
rising. Africa also registered a decrease in the concentration of its exports over the last decade.
Another interesting feature is the relative decline of the share of agricultural exports in Africa’s
total exports, indicating that the main source of foreign earnings come now from non-agricultural
products. However, overall, despite the region’s attempt to integrate into the global market, there
is still some work to be done in increasing diversification, in furthering integration into global
value chains and in meeting international standards.
This chapter examines Africa’s global trade patterns from 1998 to 2013. Specifically, section II
highlights the trends of Africa’s agricultural trade both in values and in volumes with a focus on
the evolution of some key agricultural commodities. This is followed by a discussion of trends in
net agricultural exports in section III. Changes in market shares are presented under section IV;
this section also analyses in detail the direction of African’s exports and imports. Since the region’s
export and import composition changes over time, the composition of agricultural exports and
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imports is also discussed under section V. We then examine under section VI the changes in unit
values of agricultural exports and imports. Finally, the last section concludes the chapter.
2.2 Trends in volumes and values of global agricultural trade (exports and imports)2
2.2.1 Global patterns
Fig. 2.1. Total agricultural trade, billion USD Fig. 2.2. Export shares in global agricultural
(nominal values) exports (nominal values)
Source: BACI Source: BACI
Globally, agricultural exports and imports have been increasing steadily since 1998 even though
imports have been generally higher than exports (Figure 2.1). After a fall in the nineties, Africa’s
exports have increased continuously over the last decade at 8% annually. Over the entire period
(1998–2013) exports more than doubled.
From 2008 to 2013 (the post crisis period), the annual growth rate of agricultural exports was 6.6%
which is much higher than total export growth (1.3%) due to sluggish economic growth in the
world (UNCTAD, 2015). Although the trend looks promising, exports still lagged behind imports.
The reasons behind this increase in exports include price booms of various commodities over the
last decade, the improvement in infrastructure in the continent (mostly transport and
telecommunication), economic growth, and more regional and global integration efforts.
2 Unless specified, all figures refer to aggregate continental trade, i.e. extra and intra Africa trade lumped together. The main source
of data is the BACI database built by CEPII. Based on UN COMTRADE, BACI has developed a procedure to reconcile exporter
and importer declarations using both mirror data and gravity modeling (Gaulier et al., 2010). This allows a significant increase in
the number of countries with available data. See the appendix for a complete description of the database.
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Exports Imports
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Africa SSA
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While export growth has not been as high as expected, in contrast, the value of agricultural imports
has increased rapidly during the years since 1998. Over the entire period, imports have grown
fivefold. Specifically, there was a general rise in the value of agricultural imports from $19.07
billion in 1998 to approximately $68.28 billion in 2008 with a dip in 2009 ($60.61 billion). Total
trade in agricultural imports increased again between 2009 and 2011, peaking at approximately $
98.89 billion. However, since 2012, world agricultural imports have been slightly on the decline,
with the total value of world agricultural imports dropping to approximately $89.18 billion in 2013.
On the other hand, and as earlier indicated, exports have been rising over the period, with the 2013
value of approximately $63.85 billion being the highest for the period.
The higher imports may be attributed to both demand and supply factors. On the demand side, the
main elements to mention are the increasing income levels due to higher economic growth,
population growth and demographic changes, and changes in consumers’ dietary patterns
(Rakotoarisoa et al., 2011; Diao et al. 2008). The income effect due to economic growth is at play
in some countries like Ghana and Mozambique with consequences for dietary patterns. For
instance, with higher incomes, consumers demand more protein (such as meat, fish, milk, and
peanut). The other cause of increasing imports is population growth and rapid urbanization in
Africa with a concomitant increase of the population in rural areas. Africa is indeed the most
dynamic region in terms of demographics. Africa’s population has more than doubled in the last
30 years while the world’s population has grown by 60% with now two out of every five people
living in cities. The consequence of the rapid urbanization and population growth has been an
increase in the consumption of more diversified and richer animal products and in the consumption
of imported cereals (wheat, rice, and maize) rather than of the local cereals, roots, and tubers
generally consumed in rural areas (FAO, 2015). This trend will continue in the near future as
Africa’s population growth rate is twice the world average. On the supply side, the huge increase
in imports is mainly due to the poor performance in terms of competitiveness of African
agriculture, which has been unable to meet the requirements of the growing population. Low and
stagnating agricultural productivity, water constraints, the low use of fertilizers and low
mechanization are the key factors at play (FAO, 2015).
Export shares of Africa and SSA in global exports are given in Figure 2.2. The shares of Africa
and SSA’s exports in world exports have been fluctuating below 4% with a few exceptions, the
lowest share being 3.77% in 2008. The export shares of SSA countries in global exports have
11
experienced trends similar to those of Africa as a whole, with respect to the years of peaks and
troughs, meaning that North African countries do not account significantly for the region’s
agricultural exports. It is obvious from the trends given in Figure 2.2 that export shares of both
Africa and SSA in world agricultural trade are generally low. The contrasted evolution of Africa’s
share in global exports is reflected by the evolution of its competitiveness in world markets. Indeed
two third of the countries of the continent registered a loss in competitiveness while the remaining
ones managed to expand their exports in world markets faster than their competitors (Odjo and
Badiane, 2017).
The low share of Africa in world agricultural trade is to be contrasted with the facts that agriculture
products continue to contribute highly to GDP in most African countries and that agriculture
employs a large proportion of its workforce (WDI, 2015). The situation may however be explained
by the fact that compared to other countries or regions, agricultural production in Africa is largely
on a “peasant” scale (Bryceson, 2015; Collier and Dercon, 2014), making the overall share of
agricultural exports from Africa and SSA relatively lower. However the share of Africa’s
agricultural exports in world agricultural exports is slightly greater than the share of its
merchandise exports in global merchandise exports (Figure 2.2 versus Figure 2.3), showing the
relative specialization of Africa in agricultural products. Another interesting feature is the relative
decline of the share of agricultural exports in Africa’s total exports (Figure 2.4). Indeed the share
of agricultural products has been reduced by half since 1998, indicating a symmetric increase in
export earnings from other sources (mainly textiles, minerals and fossil oil). Agricultural exports
represent now 10% of Africa’s total exports.
12
Fig. 2.3. Share of Africa in world total trade3 Fig. 2.4. Share of agricultural exports in
(nominal values) total exports (nominal values)
Source: UNCTAD Source: BACI
Globally, the evolution of the market shares of the main RECs follow that of Africa as a whole
(Figure 2.5). The evolution in some groups is however more pronounced than for others. The
ECCAS group, which has the lowest share, is also characterized by a secular decline over the entire
period. This particular pattern of the SADC region is confirmed by its lack of competitiveness over
the last decade compared to its main competitors (Odjo and Badiane, 2017; see chapter 4). The
SADC region is also an example of a relative decline over the period after an increase of its market
share in the late nineties, with a decline in competitiveness. The ECOWAS region’s market share
is the most volatile one, with an improvement in the most recent years, while COMESA’s is
relatively stable over time. The divergent evolution of the market shares of the different RECs is
due to their differences in terms of specialization (commodities exported; see Annex 2) and to their
ability to respond to price booms and to compete with other exporters in global markets.
3 Goods and services
0
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2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
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14.00%
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18.00%
20.00%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
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Figure 2.5. Exports shares of agricultural products by major RECs
Source: BACI
2.2.2. Evolution of some key exported commodities
This subsection focuses on some key commodities, particularly citrus, coffee, cocoa and cotton
(the main commodities exported in 1998) and fish and related products that are not part of the
WTO agreement on agriculture.
As evident in Figure 2.64, although citrus was the second most exported commodity in volume
terms after cocoa between 1998 and 2002, it outstripped the volume of cocoa exported from 2002
to 2013. Notwithstanding, cocoa remains the highest exported commodity in value (see Figure 2.7)
from 1998 to 2013, with the value of citrus, coffee and cotton all performing below that of cocoa
in the same period.
Globally, the price of cocoa and coffee in US$ per kilogram have grown continually since 2000
(see Figure 2.8). However, with the exception of the period 2001 to 2004, the coffee price grew
more rapidly than the cocoa price. Also cotton price (see Figure 2.9) maintained a relatively stable
growth rate between 2000 and 2009. By the year 2011, the price of cotton had more than doubled
from the price in 2000, though the highest price in 2011 did not last for the subsequent years.
4 Figure 2.6 illustrates the evolution of major agricultural exported commodities in millions of tons: citrus, coffee,
cocoa and cotton.
0.00%
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1.80%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
ECOWAS ECCAS COMESA SADC
14
What is interesting is the imperfect and even opposite correlation between the volume of exports
and world prices at the end of the period with the exception of cocoa (Figures 2.6 and 2.8). Indeed
despite the huge drop in the world prices of cotton and coffee, export volumes continue to rise
after 2011. This may be due to an imperfect transmission of international price shocks to local
producers’ prices (due to stabilization mechanisms at play, exchange rate movements between
USD and local currencies, etc.) but also to an income effect which pushes producers to supply
more when prices fall (i.e., negative supply elasticity; see Yotopoulos and Lau, 1974).
Fig. 2.6. Export volume of key commodities Fig. 2.7. Export value of key commodities
(Millions of tons) (Millions of USD)
Source: BACI Source: BACI
Fig. 2.8. Cocoa and coffee prices in US$/KG Fig. 2.9. Cotton (Cotlook A index cents/lb)
Source: World Bank Source: NCC
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Fish and related products
Fish and related products represent a huge share of agricultural (extra-regional) exports for some
countries (such as Senegal) but are not part of the WTO agreement on agriculture. It is therefore
important to include them in the analysis. From 1998 to 2013, fish exports represented on average
15% of total agricultural exports.
Africa and SSA’s exports of fish and related products have doubled between 1998 and 2013,
increasing from $3.12 billion dollars and $2.29 billion dollars respectively to $7.17 billion and
$4.98 billion dollars (see Figure 2.10). For both Africa and SSA, exports of fish and related
products generally increased continuously from 1998-2008, fell between 2008 and 2010, and
increased again between 2010 and 2013.
Trends in the share of Africa and SSA in global fish trade have been similar for 1998-2013 (see
Figure 2.11). It is worth noting that Africa’s share in global fish exports is higher than its average
share in agricultural product exports, indicating a greater role and potential in that particular
market.
Fig. 2.10. Evolution of export value in USD millions Fig. 2.11. Share in global fish trade
Source: BACI Source: BACI
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2.3 Trends in net agricultural exports
Since the early nineteen eighties, Africa’s agricultural exports have continued to lag behind its
imports. The agricultural trade deficit has therefore continued to dominate as the region recorded
a negative value in its net exports between 2001 and 2013 (see Figure 2.12). This pattern is also
confirmed by the normalized trade balance5 (see Figure 2.13). The main contributor to the trade
deficit is the America region (both North America and Latin America) with –US$4 billion in 2001,
–US$7 billion in 2005 and –US$18 billion in 2013. The EU and Asia regions recorded a surplus
of US$3.3 billion and US$0.9 billion respectively in 2001. Net agricultural exports to the global
market have worsened since, as Africa started recording deficits with both Asia and the EU in
addition to the America region. The lowest ever deficit recorded occurred in 2011 (US$39.7 billion
globally). In that same year, Africa recorded a negative value of US$8.3 million to Asia, US$1.6
million to the EU and US$25.3 billion to America. Although the deficit recorded in net agricultural
exports reduced somewhat, evidence for 2013 shows that net agricultural exports by African
countries have not been encouraging. Also, globally the deficit is mainly due to significant
increases in imports rather than a decrease in exports. The main import commodities causing the
deficit are sugar, maize, and wheat from the America region; wheat, milk and cream from the EU;
and rice, palm oil and wheat from Asia.
It appears that most of the RECs recorded a trade deficit over the period with the exception of the
SADC region which recorded a surplus over the entire period (see Annex 2). The trade deficit is
particularly important for North African countries, which are huge cereal importers. According to
recent studies, 23 countries in Africa are highly import dependent, with normalized trade balance
index values between -1 to -0.1 while 37 countries are net importers of food (FAO, 2015).
The growing agricultural trade deficit suggests that it is necessary that African countries take
relevant steps to improve export performance since the continent has the “agrarian” environment
to support agricultural exports. Agriculture on the continent must gradually be transformed from
being peasant-dominated to a more commercial type as doing so in addition to other measures
(such as improvement in technology and skills) will greatly improve agricultural exports.
5 The normalized balance is computed as a country's exports of agricultural products minus its imports of agricultural
products, normalized by dividing it by its agricultural trade (imports plus exports). The index varies between -1 and
1.
17
Figure 2.12. Evolution of net agricultural exports in US$ million (nominal values)
Source: BACI
Figure 2.13. Normalized trade balance
Source: BACI
2.4 Directions of agricultural exports and imports and changes in market shares
This section assesses the direction of Africa’s agricultural exports and imports as well as the
changes in Africa’s market shares in these regions. Africa as a region has been noted for its natural
resource abundance and a significant share of its exports are agricultural products, either semi
processed or in their raw state. Different types of exports are made by Africa to different regions
in the world. However, the most common agricultural export commodities are cash crops. In
particular, commodities such as cotton, cocoa, coffee, cassava, and sorghum are exported to other
parts of the world. The direction of these exports however depends on the demand for such
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2001 2005 2013
World EU Asia America
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products. In Figures 2.14 and 2.15, we present the direction of Africa’s agricultural exports from
1998 to 2013 to four regions: among African countries; Europe; Asia; and America. As shown in
Figure 2.15, thanks to free trade areas and improvement in local infrastructure, the rate at which
African countries export to each other has increased at a constant rate since 1998. This outcome is
however still low when compared to other regions outside Africa. The direction of exports among
African countries have averaged 15.70% between 1998 and 2012 in spite of the low take off rate
of 11% in 1998.
Exports to Europe have shown a downward trend since 1998, yet Europe remains the region’s
highest export destination. Consistently, Africa’s exports to the EU dropped from 62% of total
agricultural exports in 1998 to 37% in 2012. Some African countries started developing tropical
products for export to the EU market, to take advantage of the preferences granted by the EU (EBA
for instance), but EU standards and SPS dampen the level of agricultural exports (Otsuki and
Sewadeh, 2001; Kareem, 2014). It is also worth noting that the EU started negotiations with some
of Africa’s competitors such as Asia and Latin America, the risk being the erosion of preferences
for African countries for some commodities such as cocoa and bananas. Exports to Asia (and
Europe) are mostly agricultural products that are high-value and low-calorie in nature. Notable
among them are cotton, coffee, flowers, fruits, tea, tobacco and fish. As evident in Figure 2.15,
exports of agricultural products to Asia increased at a slower rate between 1998 and 2012 while
exports to America have been fairly low. Until 2012, the share of exports to America was below
9%. The highest export share to America since 1998 was recorded to be 9.69% which occurred in
2012. This reduced to 5.63% in 2013 (see Figure 2.14). Europe, on the other hand, received the
highest share of Africa’s exports (37.52%) in 2013 (see Figure 2.14) followed by Asia and Africa.
On the import side, as shown in Figure 2.16, the region imported 12.51% in 1999 from its own
area. This increased to 16% in 2003 and dropped to 12.37% in 2008. However these low figures
do not account for informal cross-border trade between African countries. This consists of flows
of local products and of import/re-export flows, sometimes in order to circumvent protectionist
policies put in place by some countries against imports from the international market (see the
Nigeria-Benin case, LARES, 2005; Golub, 2012). Since estimates of intra-regional trade volumes
are based on official statistics (customs declarations), the volume of trade is largely
underestimated. For instance, more than 50% of Benin’s trade in red meat, cattle and cereals was
informal in 2010 (ECNE, 2010). However some obstacles still remain for intra-African trade.
19
Among these are mentioned inadequate transport, storage and preservation infrastructure; tariffs,
non-tariff barriers and export bans; technical barriers; customs procedures; lack of harmonisation
of procedures and documents; lack of recognition of national certificates and standards; migratory
procedures; and roadside inspections (Levard and Benkhala, 2013; Rolland and Alpha, 2011).
Finally the share of intra-trade varies among commodities: cereals and live animals are the most
intra-exported while coffee, cocoa, and tea are mostly exported outside the continent.
The majority of Africa’s imports come from Europe. It is evident from Figure 2.16 that in 1998
42% of the region’s imports came from EU. Though the percentage of imports from the EU has
reduced since 1998, the EU still remains Africa’s largest origin of imports. Currently, imports from
America have been rising steadily; between 1998 and 2003, the share of imports from this region
averaged 26.62%. Moreover, the highest imports to Africa in 2011 came from America. Inside
America there is a sharp drop in imports from North America which benefited Latin America. The
share of imports from Asia has also increased from 11.30% in 1998 to 26.42% in 2012. This,
however, dropped in 2013 to 24.78%. The main feature here is the decline of Europe and the rise
of Asia over the period as Africa’s trade partner both for imports and exports.
Figure 2.14. Direction of agricultural exports and imports in 2013
Exports (nominal values) Imports (nominal values)
Source: BACI Source: BACI
20.14%
37.52%
31.71%
5.63% 5.00%
Africa EU Asia America Others
14.42%
27.98%
24.78%
24.29%
8.53%
Africa EU Asia America Others
20
Fig. 2.15. Directions of agricultural exports Fig. 2.16. Directions of agricultural imports
(nominal values) (nominal values)
Source: BACI Source: BACI
2.5 Changes in composition of agricultural exports and imports
The composition of agricultural exports and imports in Africa recorded mixed features over time.
It shows an increasing diversification of exports and a relative stability for imports, with slight
modifications from period to period.
It is widely recognized that African exports are highly concentrated (Kose and Riezman, 2001;
Songwe and Winkler, 2012). However, within the agricultural sector, Africa’s exports seems to
have started a gradual diversification as the composition and the shares of the region’s exports
changed over time. We report in Figures 2.17 and 2.18 the top ten exported products from Africa.
In 1998 the top 10 (HS4) products represented 57% of exports while in 2013 they represented
43%, indicating a decrease in the concentration of exports. However, 6 out of 10 products present
in 1998 were also present in 2013. By the end of the year 1998, cocoa beans were the region’s top
exported agricultural product. This is still the case in 2013 with 14% of total agricultural exports.
Coffee and cotton emerged as the second and third most exported products in that same year
(1998), amounting to US$2 billion and US$1.5 billion, respectively. Among others, sugar, tobacco,
tea, citrus fruits, grapes and apples were also among the top ten exported agricultural products in
1998. The region has since 1998 witnessed a drop in the export of cotton, citrus fruits and tobacco.
Conversely, cigars and cigarettes, oilseeds and frozen fish, which were absent from the list of top
exports in 1998, are now among the top ten products exported in 2013.
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Africa EU Asia
America Others
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1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Africa EU Asia
America Others
21
Exports.
Fig. 2.17. Top ten products in 1998 Fig. 2.18. Top ten products in 2013
(in % of total agricultural export value) (in % of total agricultural export value)
Source: BACI Source: BACI
Unlike exports, Africa’s imports have remained quite stable in terms of composition and shares.
In 1998 the top 10 (HS4) products represented 52% of imports against 49% in 2013. As evident
from Figures 2.19 and 2.20, 8 out of the top 10 commodities imported in 1998 are also present in
2013. In Figure 2.19, the highest share of Africa’s agricultural imports is held by wheat and meslin
flour, which constituted about 16% of agricultural imports in 1998. Sugar was the second most
imported product, representing 8.28% of agricultural products imported by African countries. The
other products that were among the top ten imported products include maize, rice, wheat and
meslin flour, soya-bean oil, palm oil, sunflower-seed, and cigars and cigarettes. In 2013, wheat
and meslin continued to account for the highest share of agricultural imports. Rice is the second
most imported agricultural product followed by sugar, palm oil, and milk and cream. Meat and
edible offal of poultry, soya-bean oil and oil-cake and other solid residues are among the products
imported in 2013. The entry of meat and edible offal in the top 10 imported commodities highlights
the shift towards more protein-related products mentioned earlier.
0.00%
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6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%
10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%
22
Imports.
Fig. 2.19. Top ten imported products in 1998 Fig. 2.20. Top ten imported products in 2013
(in %of total agricultural imports) (in % of total agricultural imports)
Source: BACI Source: BACI
2.6 Changes in unit values of agricultural exports and imports
A plot of trends in the evolution of agricultural imports and exports unit values is given in Figure
2.21. It shows changes in unit values of agricultural imports and exports using 2000 as the base
year. The evolution of unit values is related to the so-called (deterioration of) terms of trade
literature which dates back to the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis (Prebisch, 1950; Singer, 1950) that
argues that the price of primary commodities declines relative to the price of manufactured goods
over the long run, causing the terms of trade to deteriorate for primary products exporting and
manufactured goods importing countries. However recent research regarding this topic has given
mixed results (Arezki et al. 2013).
From Figure 2.21, it can be seen that the unit value of both agricultural imports and exports have
generally increased for the 2000–2013 period with a mixed pattern. From 2000 to 2007, the
evolution of both indicators shows a significant increase, with imports rising faster than exports,
yielding a slight deterioration of the agricultural terms of trade. The period between 2008 and 2013
saw the evolution of the unit value of exports outstripping the unit value of Africa’s imports. This
improvement was mainly due to the huge increase in commodity prices in the late 2000s and is in
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
18.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
23
line with the evolution global terms of trade for Africa (UNCTAD, 2015) though more important
here than that of total trade6.
Figure 2.21. Evolution of exports and imports unit values (Base 100=2000)
Source: BACI
2.7 Conclusion
Africa has experienced a significant increase in both the value of its exports and imports over the
last decade, boosted by the increase in commodity prices in international markets. However, since
1998, Africa’s imports have increased more rapidly both in shares and in value terms than exports,
yielding a continuously deteriorating trade deficit. This growing trade deficit driven by imports is
mainly due to population and economic growth, change in dietary patterns, increasing income
levels and the lack of competiveness of the domestic sector. Among the main RECs of the
continent, the SADC region is the only one recording a surplus over the entire period.
Africa’s share of global trade in agriculture has been stable around 4%, though with some small
fluctuations for the last three years. The evolution of the market shares of the main RECs shows a
regular decline of the shares of the ECCAS and the SADC region, a relative stability of
COMESA’s share and a highly volatile pattern for ECOWAS. One of the main interesting features
is the secular decline of the share of agricultural exports in Africa’s total exports. The share of
agricultural exports in Africa’s total exports has been cut by half since 1998 to the benefit of
mineral and fossil oils.
6 This is due to mineral products that are not taken into account here.
0
50
100
150
200
Exports Imports
24
The composition of agricultural exports and imports in Africa recorded mixed features, showing
an increasing diversification for exports and a relative stability for imports. Indeed, within the
agricultural sector, Africa’s exports seem to have started a gradual diversification. Now the top ten
(HS4) exported products represent 43% of exports compared to 57% in 1998. However, most of
the products present in the top exported commodities in 1998 are still present, with a concentration
of cocoa beans, coffee and cotton. Unlike exports, Africa’s imports have remained quite stable in
terms of composition and shares, with the top ten (HS4) products still representing half the imports.
Imports remain dominated by cereals (wheat, rice, maize) and sugar, with a recent shift towards
more protein (meat and offal and fish).
In terms of directions of trade, Africa’s trade (both imports and exports) with the European market
has witnessed a continuous drop since 2000, though the EU still remains the first partner for the
continent. At the same time, Asia has emerged as a major partner for both imports and exports. If
recent trends were to continue, Asia will soon become Africa’s first trade partner. It is worth noting
that the ability to meet standards and SPS measures is still dampening Africa’s exports, in
particular to the EU and the US markets. There is also a risk of the erosion of preferences for some
African countries as the EU for instance has ongoing negotiations with some of Africa’s
competitors such as Asia and Latin America, the main sectors at risk being those of cocoa beans
and bananas.
African countries have also expanded their intra-trade over the last 10 years and become less
dependent on international markets. In particular, the share of agricultural imports and exports
among African countries more than doubled between 2000 and 2013. Recent improvement in intra-
trade is attributed to the effort of Africans to integrate into the regional and international market
(Bouet et al., 2013). Despite this improvement, intra-African trade is still low, hence should be
strengthened. Market fragmentation (lack of infrastructure; monetary, tax and trade fragmentation;
and red tape for traders) limits the development of the region’s trade potential. These barriers
should be tackled and given priority as they increase price instability within the region and
negatively affect food security (Badiane et al., 2014; NEPAD, 2005).
25
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27
Annex 2.1 The BACI global trade database
BACI stands for “Base pour le commerce international” and is the world trade database developed
by the CEPII7. The database is defined at a high level of product disaggregation and is the main
source used throughout this chapter. BACI is based on data from the UN COMTRADE database,
which is the world's largest database of trade statistics, maintained by the United Nations Statistics
Division (UNSD). COMTRADE is the main global source of trade statistics in goods, covering
more than 95% of world trade. BACI tries to improve UN COMTRADE by addressing the main
issues related to it: missing information for some African countries, reporting in different
nomenclatures, no distinction between zero trade flows and missing values in raw data, etc. To
address the issues, BACI has developed a procedure that reconciles exporter and importer
declarations using both mirror data and gravity modeling (see Gaulier et al., 2010). This procedure
allows for a significant increase in the number of countries with available data.
In its standard version, BACI provides export values and quantities at the HS 6-digit level. Data
are provided for over 200 countries since 1995. The database is updated every year. The
retreatment of data is particularly important for countries that do not report frequently to
COMTRADE (especially in Africa). Table A1 illustrates the data issue and the absence of
reporting for ECOWAS countries to UN COMTRADE from 1988 to 2010. In BACI all countries
are observed for imports and exports.
7 Centre d’Etudes Prospectives et d’Informations Internationals is a research center based in Paris and part of the
Prime Minister’s Office through the Centre d’Analyse Strategique, now “France Strategie.”
28
Table A.1: ECOWAS countries’ declaration to UN COMTRADE
1988 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total
Benin Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 13
Burkina Faso
Y Y Y Y Y
Y Y Y Y 9
Cote d'Ivoire
Y
Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 9
Cape Verde Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 13
Ghana
Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 8
Guinea Y Y Y Y Y
Y Y Y Y Y
10
Gambia Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 13
Guinea-Bissau
Y Y Y
3
Liberia
0
Mali Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
Y 12
Niger Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 13
Nigeria
Y
Y Y Y
Y Y Y Y Y 9
Senegal Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 13
Sierra Leone
Togo Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
Y Y Y Y 12
NB of Countries declaring Imports 8 9 8 11 10 12 12 12 10 12 12 10 11
Note: Y stands for yes if the country declares that particular year.
29
Annex 2.2 Main descriptive statistics
Table A2.1: Africa’s top 15 exported products by destination in 20138
(nominal value in 1,000 USD and volume in tons).
World Africa America
HS4 Value Volume HS4 Value Volume HS4 Value Volume
1801 8949056 2588938 2402 1659452 34813.75 1801 933360 355881.7 5201 2590810 1517283 0303 919411.9 1424777 0901 224440.7 63762.26 0805 2535454 3700486 1701 669666.3 2604785 0805 187423.8 162056.8 2401 2417195 527845.9 0709 582662.9 131412.5 1803 182423.8 49903.43 1701 2257720 6833846 0902 513835.6 241690.7 1509 140348.4 37054.27 0901 2151131 1137948 2401 351878.4 123330.4 2204 119619.3 45068.34 1604 1948820 486239.3 1511 344980.4 2543051 0303 118032 57591.94 0303 1853421 1834613 1005 295261.2 1589105 2401 102585.4 25137.2 2402 1801219 46722.25 1101 285483 2860764 0802 100752.7 30831.81 1207 1472631 12451721 0901 278569.7 402602.5 1005 100256.6 293195.7 0801 1452097 1611323 2106 266778.5 128092.1 0801 90033.46 39679.83 0902 1347222 526269.2 1902 225433.6 1218597 1604 85488.46 14904.21 1803 1346488 391861.1 0102 215255.4 144427.8 0603 78142.34 30699.34 0603 1274794 266750.3 2202 207381.9 307924.4 1802 77175.89 23988.44 0307 1097386 246285.3 1604 196898.9 82363.39 1211 56772.54 27141.34
Source: BACI
Table A2.1 ctd.
Asia European Union
HS4 Value Volume HS4 Value Volume
1801 3999891 326122.8 1801 3576260 1738438 5201 2136118 1261332 1604 1582322 367771.1 0801 1264986 1440414 1701 1112135 3388362 0805 1214586 1984923 0901 1056904 468869.4 1207 1020944 650511.8 0805 954438.1 1170226 2401 1004399 151146 0603 908689.2 187579.4 0902 516089.2 173524 1803 882639.2 259285.2 0307 453306.5 100128.9 2401 767497.2 189279.5 0901 403178.8 132506.4 0806 710809.7 315833.6 0406 385945.1 100727.4 1804 635869.3 125528.2 1005 370671.5 1250419 0307 627574.8 128131.7 0104 369376.8 114676.2 0803 611995.4 630686.3 0713 336437.6 1635826 2204 599264.4 347734.6 0303 318154.1 137725.6 0304 571980.9 111401.3 5101 266543.5 46343.24 0702 540095.2 467447.5
8 See the list of products corresponding to the HS nomenclature in Table A2.4.
30
Source: BACI
Table A2.2: Africa’s top 15 imported products by origin in 2013
(nominal value in 1,000 USD and volume in tons).
World Africa America
HS4 Value Volume HS4 Value Volume HS4 Value Volume
1001 11315164 37956637 2402 1659452 34813.75 1701 4011909 9411226 1006 6192685 15621186 0303 919411.9 1424777 1001 3148162 10857641 1701 5789882 15825559 1701 669666.3 2604785 1005 2303404 8999137 1511 4536369 10423995 0709 582662.9 131412.5 2304 1835747 4138790 1005 3606254 14965351 0902 513835.6 241690.7 0207 1423035 1123708 0402 3365801 1062497 2401 351878.4 123330.4 1507 1006265 1293838 0303 3164988 2972965 1511 344980.4 2543051 1201 984894.7 1782988 0207 2295812 1755920 1005 295261.2 1589105 0202 738227.8 251871 2402 2256805 89823.44 1101 285483 2860764 0402 649771.9 170187.6 1507 2044662 2457679 0901 278569.7 402602.5 0713 387738.9 522599 2304 1926556 4629271 2106 266778.5 128092.1 1006 369890.1 1135149 1901 1749542 795508.4 1902 225433.6 1218597 0303 314510.4 242943.1 0202 1505473 570665.6 0102 215255.4 144427.8 0206 254577.8 198430.5 2106 1461689 577673.1 2202 207381.9 307924.4 2207 224787.8 228138.2 0902 1161753 438684.9 1604 196898.9 82363.39 2303 211352.9 484886.2
Source: BACI
Table A2.2. Ctd
Asia European Union
HS4 Value Volume HS4 Value Volume
1006 5568320 13508022 1001 4772036 14966210 1511 4142895 7450407 0402 1560448 453891.9 1001 1562951 5523065 1901 1272133 347804.6 1701 816755.5 3337692 0303 1161104 712226.3 1604 789623.4 284669.2 2106 829718.2 245938.9 0202 664980.4 215213.5 2208 818824.5 132224.1 0902 629274 192373.3 2403 805653.5 41764.71 0303 618133.8 496250.9 1507 784504.3 724614.6 2002 442291 434381.8 0207 764927 543898.6 0402 331543.1 183218.5 2204 528823.8 280842 0901 309772.6 138142.9 2202 469341.3 506755.1 1516 272551.5 305105.8 1107 462966.1 1037474 1512 241708.3 273454.3 2203 415659.4 421534 1905 238722 312852.2 0102 406498.5 104375 2009 232720.1 336060.3 2309 405577.4 687164
Source: BACI
31
Table A2.3: Exports, imports and trade balance for main RECS in nominal value (1,000 USD)
ECOWAS ECCAS COMESA
Exports Imports Trade balance Exports Imports Trade balance Exports Imports Trade balance
1998 6116465 3837574 2278891 985119 1316618 -331499 5919690 6675268 -755579 1999 5705731 4070148 1635583 914239.2 1138998 -224759 5953728 6225979 -272251 2000 4849950 3941394 908555.8 864932.7 1435258 -570325 6233086 6499117 -266031 2001 4959724 5063406 -103681 870867.2 1669209 -798342 6419539 7047405 -627867 2002 5691559 5443531 248028.1 769333.3 1892355 -1123022 6575509 7367812 -792304 2003 8174045 7172308 1001737 1034457 2352183 -1317726 7708798 8389307 -680509 2004 8390249 6861849 1528401 1103567 2679544 -1575977 8639757 9309681 -669924 2005 8182928 8082486 100442.2 1259674 3046911 -1787236 9907420 10646105 -738685 2006 8111680 9648551 -1536872 1250582 3733047 -2482466 10584645 12464647 -1880001 2007 10009034 13088053 -3079019 1427620 4784696 -3357075 12404233 15811640 -3407407 2008 12135190 14878796 -2743606 1590252 6346862 -4756611 14845553 24695229 -9849676 2009 13785804 14440253 -654449 1769146 5992694 -4223548 15491756 22310479 -6818723 2010 15283877 15294911 -11034.2 1800128 6405823 -4605695 16988548 28408191 -1.1E+07 2011 18861303 28161899 -9300596 1900651 8795311 -6894660 19639714 33633079 -1.4E+07 2012 19185691 20650589 -1464898 1860603 9031307 -7170704 18108289 32659977 -1.5E+07 2013 20289380 21339574 -1050194 1767716 9572699 -7804983 19923744 29564524 -9640780
Source: BACI
32
Table A2.3: ctd
SADC AMU
Exports Imports Trade balance Exports Imports Trade balance
1998 7316775 3996326 3320449 2253018 5898554 -3645536 1999 7414659 3550548 3864111 2603562 5080264 -2476702 2000 7674486 3686711 3987775 2664439 5519295 -2854856 2001 8231349 3772930 4458419 2695109 5702532 -3007422 2002 8705809 4728753 3977056 3084234 6698156 -3613922 2003 9624956 5483425 4141531 3564657 6679442 -3114786 2004 10467023 6865226 3601797 4242618 8502594 -4259976 2005 10838574 7175830 3662744 4837408 8735021 -3897613 2006 11324527 8807677 2516850 5359433 9470486 -4111052 2007 12726162 10976492 1749670 6482675 13694306 -7211631 2008 14353135 13310628 1042507 7558859 18944213 -1.1E+07 2009 14667621 12187492 2480129 6764896 14714422 -7949526 2010 15569389 13877386 1692003 6821328 17067732 -1E+07 2011 18192694 18090398 102296.3 7905469 22378653 -1.4E+07 2012 17702902 18748276 -1045374 7579879 22748748 -1.5E+07 2013 19622634 19302801 319833.3 8232886 24009848 -1.6E+07
Source: BACI
33
Table A2.4: list of products corresponding to the HS 4 nomenclature
HS4 Product Description
0102 Live bovine animals.
0104 Live sheep and goats.
0202 Meat of bovine animals, frozen.
0206 Edible offal of bovine animals, swine, sheep, goats, horses, asses, mules or hinnies, fresh, chilled or frozen.
0207 Meat and edible offal, of the poultry of heading No. 01.05, fresh, chilled or frozen.
0303 Fish, frozen, excluding fish fillets and other fish meat of heading No. 03.04.
0304 Fish fillets and other fish meat (whether or not minced), fresh, chilled or frozen.
0307 Molluscs, whether in shell or not, live, fresh, chilled, frozen, dried, salted or in brine; aquatic invertebrates other than crustaceans and molluscs, live, fresh, chilled, frozen, dried, salted or in brine; flours, meals and pellets of
0402 Milk and cream, concentrated or containing added sugar or other sweetening matter.
0406 Cheese and curd.
0603 Cut flowers and flower buds of a kind suitable for bouquets or for ornamental purposes, fresh, dried, dyed, bleached, impregnated or otherwise prepared.
0702 Tomatoes, fresh or chilled.
0709 Other vegetables, fresh or chilled.
0713 Dried leguminous vegetables, shelled, whether or not skinned or split.
0801 Coconuts, Brazil nuts and cashew nuts, fresh or dried, whether or not shelled or peeled.
0802 Other nuts, fresh or dried, whether or not shelled or peeled.
0803 Bananas, including plantains, fresh or dried.
0805 Citrus fruit, fresh or dried.
0806 Grapes, fresh or dried.
0901 Coffee, whether or not roasted or decaffeinated; coffee husks and skins; coffee substitutes containing coffee in any proportion.
0902 Tea, whether or not flavoured.
1001 Wheat and meslin.
1005 Maize (corn).
1006 Rice.
1101 Wheat or meslin flour.
1107 Malt, whether or not roasted.
1201 Soya beans, whether or not broken.
34
1207 Other oil seeds and oleaginous fruits, whether or not broken.
1211 Plants and parts of plants (including seeds and fruits), of a kind used primarily in perfumery, in pharmacy or for insecticidal, fungicidal or similar purposes, fresh or dried, whether or not cut, crushed or powdered.
1507 Soya-bean oil and its fractions, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified.
1509 Olive oil and its fractions, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified.
1511 Palm oil and its fractions, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified.
1512 Sunflower-seed, safflower or cotton-seed oil and fractions thereof, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified.
1516 Animal or vegetable fats and oils and their fractions, partly or wholly hydrogenated, inter-esterified, re-esterified or elaidinised, whether or not refined, but not further prepared.
1604 Prepared or preserved fish; caviar and caviar substitutes prepared from fish eggs.
1701 Cane or beet sugar and chemically pure sucrose, in solid form.
1801 Cocoa beans, whole or broken, raw or roasted.
1802 Cocoa shells, husks, skins and other cocoa waste.
1803 Cocoa paste, whether or not defatted.
1804 Cocoa butter, fat and oil.
1901 Malt extract; food preparations of flour, meal, starch or malt extract, not containing cocoa or containing less than 40% by weight of cocoa calculated on a totally defatted basis, not elsewhere specified or including; food preparations
1902 Pasta, whether or not cooked or stuffed (with meat or other substances) or otherwise prepared, such as spaghetti, macaroni, noodles, lasagne, gnocchi, ravioli, cannelloni; couscous, whether or not prepared.
1905 Bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and other bakers' wares, whether or not containing cocoa; communion wafers, empty cachets of a kind suitable for pharmaceutical use, sealing wafers, rice paper and similar products.
2002 Tomatoes prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic acid.
2009 Fruit juices (including grape must) and vegetable juices, unfermented and not containing added spirit, whether or not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter.
2106 Food preparations not elsewhere specified or included.
2202 Waters, including mineral waters and aerated waters, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter or flavoured, and other non-alcoholic beverages, not including fruit or vegetable juices of heading No. 20.09.
35
2203 Beer made from malt.
2204 Wine of fresh grapes, including fortified wines; grape must other than that of heading No. 20.09.
2207 Undenatured ethyl alcohol of an alcoholic strength by volume of 80 % vol or higher; ethyl alcohol and other spirits, denatured, of any strength.
2208 Undenatured ethyl alcohol of an alcoholic strength by volume of less than 80 % vol; spirits, liqueurs and other spirituous beverages.
2303 Residues of starch manufacture and similar residues, beetpulp, bagasse and other waste of sugar manufacture, brewing or distilling dregs and waste, whether or not in the form of pellets.
2304 Oilcake and other solid residues, whether or not ground or in the form of pellets, resulting from the extraction of soyabean oil.
2309 Preparations of a kind used in animal feeding.
2401 Unmanufactured tobacco; tobacco refuse.
2402 Cigars, cheroots, cigarillos and cigarettes, of tobacco or of tobacco substitutes.
2403 Other manufactured tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes; homogenised or reconstituted tobacco; tobacco extracts and essences.
5101 Wool, not carded or combed.
5201 Cotton, not carded or combed.
