3G Services & Infrastructure

3G Services & Infrastructure Indonesian Telecom Market Facts and Numbers: Charts & Tables 2006-2009 [HR.CTD013.V1U1-2009] Dr.-Ing. Eueung Mulyana @ Harewos Research 11/21/2009 http://www.ligarvirtual.com/harewos

2

3G Services & Infrastructure

Harewos.Research http://www.ligarvirtual.com/harewos

Contents

List of Figures & Tables ........................................................................................................ 3

Mobile/Cellular Subscriber Model ........................................................................................ 4

3G Subscriber Base ............................................................................................................... 5

Base Transceiver Station (Node B) ...................................................................................... 7

Growth ................................................................................................................................... 9

Telkomsel ............................................................................................................................. 11

Indosat ................................................................................................................................. 13

XL ......................................................................................................................................... 15

NTS ...................................................................................................................................... 17

HCPT .................................................................................................................................... 18

Abbreviations & Notes ........................................................................................................ 20

3



List of Figures & Tables

Figure 1 Mobile Data Subscriber Model – Current Condition ............................................ 4 Figure 2 Mobile Data Subscriber Model – (Near) Future Trend ........................................ 4 Figure 3 3G Customer/Subscriber Base Development 2006-2009 ...................................... 5 Figure 4 Market Share of 3G Subs. 2009 ............................................................................. 6 Figure 5 Market Shares of 3G Subs. 2006-2009 (Three Major Operators) ........................ 6 Figure 6 3G BTS (Node-B) Development 2006-2009 ........................................................... 7 Figure 7 Percentage of Node-B Deployment for Each Operator 2009 ................................ 8 Figure 8 Percentage of Operators’ Node-B Deployment (3 Major Operators) .................... 8

Table 1 3G Subscriber Base (Operators’ Publication & Estimates) ................................... 5 Table 2 Portions/Market Shares of 3G Subscribers 2006-2009 .......................................... 5 Table 3 Node-B Development 2006-2009 (Operators’ Publication & Estimates) ............... 7 Table 4 Percentage of Node-B for Each Operator 2006-2009 .............................................. 7

Figure Table 1 Growth of 3G Subscribers 2006-2009 .......................................................... 9 Figure Table 2 Growth of 3G Subscribers (AGR & CAGR) ................................................. 9 Figure Table 3 Growth of Node-B Deployment 2006-2009 ............................................... 10 Figure Table 4 Growth of Node-B Deployment (AGR & CAGR) ....................................... 10 Figure Table 5 Growth of TSEL’s 3G Subscribers (2006-2009) ........................................ 11 Figure Table 6 Growth of TSEL’s 3G Subscribers (AGR & CAGR) .................................. 11 Figure Table 7 Growth of TSEL’s Node-B Deployment (2006-2009) ................................ 12 Figure Table 8 Growth of TSEL’s Node-B Deployment (AGR & CAGR) .......................... 12 Figure Table 9 Growth of ISAT’s 3G Subscribers (2006-2009) ......................................... 13 Figure Table 10 Growth of ISAT’s 3G Subscribers (AGR & CAGR) ................................. 13 Figure Table 11 Growth of ISAT’s Node-B Deployment (2006-2009) ............................... 14 Figure Table 12 Growth of ISAT’s Node-B Deployment (AGR & CAGR) ......................... 14 Figure Table 13 Growth of XL’s 3G Subscribers (2006-2009) ........................................... 15 Figure Table 14 Growth of XL’s 3G Subscribers (AGR & CAGR) ..................................... 15 Figure Table 15 Growth of XL’s Node-B Deployment (2006-2009) ................................... 16 Figure Table 16 Growth of XL’s Node-B Deployment (AGR & CAGR) ............................ 16 Figure Table 17 Growth of NTS’s 3G Subscribers (2006-2009) ........................................ 17 Figure Table 18 Growth of NTS’s Node-B Deployment (2006-2009) ................................ 17 Figure Table 19 Growth of HCPT’s 3G Subscribers (2006-2009) ..................................... 18 Figure Table 20 Growth of HCPT’s 3G Subscribers (AGR & CAGR) ............................... 18 Figure Table 21 Growth of HCPT’s Node-B Deployment (2006-2009) ............................. 19 Figure Table 22 Growth of HCPT’s Node-B Deployment (AGR & CAGR) ....................... 19

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able 1 3G

Table 2 P

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3G Custo

2006E 950,000 45,000 50,000

0 0

Subscrib

2006E 90.91 4.31 4.78 0.00 0.00

Portions/

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

m/harewos

mer/Subs

22,5601,0

10

ber Base

2

/Market S

0

0

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0

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scriber B

2007E 500,000 00,000 000,000 0

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(Operato

2007E 60.98 14.63 24.39 0.00 2.44

Shares of

Subscr

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08E .90 .55 .77 03 76

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HCPNTSXLISATTSE

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2006-200

2009N12,000,8,000,08,000,0400,0500,0

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2009N41.527.627.61.381.73

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e 4 Marke

es of 3G S

ISA28%

XL8%

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006E

rket ShTSEL

et Share o

Subs. 200

AT%

TS%

HCPT2%

et Shar

2007E

hares L ISAT

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of 3G Sub

6-2009 (T

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re 2009

2008E

2006-2T XL

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Three Maj

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Table 4

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2006E 942 279 981 0 0

de-B Dev

2006E 42.78 12.67 44.55 0.00 0.00

Percenta

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

10,000

m/harewos

nscei

G BTS (No

2

velopmenE

2

age of No

3

ver S

ode-B) De

2007E 1,940 800 1,375 0

200

nt 2006-20Estimates

2007E 47.14 19.44 33.41 0.00 4.86

ode-B for

3G BTS

3

Stati

evelopme

2003,21,41,77550

009 (Opers)

20042.19.22.9.86.5

Each Op

S

3G Service

on (N

nt 2006-2

08E 18

485 00 50 00

ators’ Pu

08E .05 .40 .21 80 53

perator 20

HCPNTSXLISATTSE

s & Infrast

Node

2009

2009N4,001,801,841,00700

ublication

2009N42.819.219.710.77.49

006-2009

PTS

TEL

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Nov 00 00 40 00 0

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Nov 83 27 70 71 9

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cent

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Percentag

XL20%

0000000000000000000000

200

Perce

m/harewos

of Node-

ge of OpeO

NTS11%

H7

3G

06E

entage

TSEL

-B Deploy

erators’ NOperators

ISAT19%

CPT7%

BTS 2

2007E

e of 3G2009

L ISAT

3

yment for

Node-B Des)

T4

2009

2008E

G BTS

T XL

3G Service

r Each Op

eploymen

TSEL43%

E 200

2006-

s & Infrast

perator 2

nt (3 Majo

09Nov

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or

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Figure

1

1

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2

30

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3

3

Per

cent

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ure Table

e Table 2

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

5,000,000

0,000,000

20Subs. 1,04

AGRCAGR

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

m/harewos

e 1 Growt

Growth o

2006

0065,000 4

#Subs

2007292.3292.3

#Subs

th of 3G S

of 3G Sub

2007

20074,100,000

scriber

202%

22024

scriber

3

Subscribe

bscribers

2008

200812,680,000

rs - 3G

%

200809.348.3

rs - 3G

3G Service

G

ers 2006-2

(AGR &

2009

20090 28,900,

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2009127.9202.4

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2009

CAGR)

9,000

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able 4 Gr

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000,000,000,000,000

2

20de-B 2,

#

AGRCAGR

0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0

100.0

m/harewos

Growth

rowth of N

20062

006202

#BTS -

200786.986.9

#Subs

of Node-B

Node-B D

2007

20074,115

- 3G (N

62%

288

scriber

3

B Deploy

Deployme

2008

20087,653

Node-B

200886.086.4

rs - 3G

3G Service

yment 200

ent (AGR

2009

209,3

B)

200922.061.9

G

s & Infrast

06-2009

& CAGR

009340

10

tructure

)

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igure Tab

8

10

12

#Su

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

Table 5 G

ble 6 Gro

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

0,000,000

2,000,000

20ubs. 950

TSE

AGRCAGR

0.020.040.060.080.0

100.0120.0140.0160.0180.0

TSE

m/harewos

rowth of

owth of TS

2006

006,000 2

EL - #S

2007163.2163.2

EL - #S

f TSEL’s 3

SEL’s 3G

2007

2007,500,000

Subscr

133%

2141

Subscr

3

3G Subscr

Subscrib

2008

20086,200,000

ribers

%

200848.055.5

ribers

3G Service

Tel

ribers (20

bers (AGR

2009

2000 12,000

3G

200993.5132.9

s 3G

s & Infrast

lkom

006-2009)

R & CAGR

090,000

11

tructure

msel

R)

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igure Tab

ure Table

1,

1,

2,

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

#BT

A

1

1

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

ble 7 Grow

e 8 Growt

0

500

,000

500

000

500

000

500

000

20

2006TS 942

AGRCAGR

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

m/harewos

wth of TS

th of TSE

00620

62

TSEL

6

2007105.9105.9

TSEL

SEL’s Nod

EL’s Node

0072

20071,940

L - #BT

62%

268

L - #BT

3

de-B Dep

-B Deploy

2008

20083,218

TS 3G

200865.984.8

TS 3G

3G Service

ployment

yment (A

2009

2004,0

200924.361.9

s & Infrast

(2006-200

AGR & CA

0900

12

tructure

09)

AGR)

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Figure T

igure Tab

1

2

3

4

5,

6,

7,

8,

#Su

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

Table 9 G

ble 10 Gro

01,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

,000,000

,000,000

,000,000

000,000

000,000

20ubs. 45,0

ISA

AGRCAGR

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

000.0

200.0

400.0

ISA

m/harewos

Growth of

owth of I

2006

006000 6

AT - #S

20071233.31233.3

AT - #S

f ISAT’s 3

SAT’s 3G

2007

2007600,000

Subscr

462%

2584

Subscr

3

G Subscr

G Subscrib

2008

20084,000,000

ribers

%

200866.742.8

ribers

3G Service

I

ribers (20

bers (AGR

2009

2000 8,000,

3G

2009100.0462.3

3G

s & Infrast

Indo

006-2009)

R & CAG

09,000

03

13

tructure

osat

GR)

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Figu


gure Tab

ure Table

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

#BT

A

111112

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

ble 11 Gro

12 Grow

0200400

600

800

000

200

400

600

800

20

2006TS 279

AGRCAGR

0.020.040.060.080.0

100.0120.0140.0160.0180.0200.0

m/harewos

owth of IS

wth of ISA

00620

69

ISAT

2007186.7186.7

ISAT

SAT’s No

AT’s Node

0072

2007800

T - #BT

86%

28

1

T - #BT

3

de-B Dep

e-B Deplo

2008

20081,485

TS 3G

200885.630.7

TS 3G

3G Service

ployment

oyment (A

2009

2001,8

200921.286.2

s & Infrast

(2006-200

AGR & CA

09800

14

tructure

09)

AGR)

Harewhttp://

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Figure

Figure Ta

234567

8

#S

A

2468

101214161820

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

Table 13

able 14 Gr

01,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0007,000,000

,000,000

20ubs. 50,

XL

AGRCAGR

0.0200.0400.0600.0800.0000.0200.0400.0600.0800.0000.0

XL

m/harewos

Growth o

rowth of

2006

006,000 1

L - #Su

20071900.01900.0

L - #Su

of XL’s 3G

XL’s 3G S

2007

20071,000,000

ubscri

443%

2105

ubscri

3

G Subscr

Subscrib

2008

20082,000,000

ibers 3

%

200800.032.5

ibers 3

3G Service

ibers (200

ers (AGR

2009

2000 8,000,

3G

2009300.0442.9

3G

s & Infrast

06-2009)

R & CAGR

9000

09

15

tructure

XL

R)

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Fig


Figure Ta

gure Tabl

1,1,21,41,61,82,0

#BT

A

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

able 15 Gr

le 16 Grow

0200400600800000200400600800000

20

2006TS 981

AGRCAGR

0.05.0

10.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.0

m/harewos

rowth of X

wth of XL

00620

6

XL

200740.240.2

XL -

XL’s Nod

L’s Node-B

0072

20071,375

- #BTS

23%

223

- #BTS

3

de-B Depl

B Deploy

2008

20081,700

S 3G

200823.631.6

S 3G

3G Service

oyment (

yment (AG

2009

2001,8

20098.2

23.3

s & Infrast

(2006-2009

GR & CAG

09840

16

tructure

9)

GR)

Harewhttp://

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Figure T

igure Tab

#S

#

rch rvirtual.com

Table 17 G

ble 18 Gro

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000

Subs.

NT

0100200300400500600700800900

1,000

#BTS

m/harewos

Growth o

owth of N

2008

2008130,000

TS - #S

2

2008

2008750

NTS

of NTS’s 3

NTS’s Nod

8

0

Subscr

208%

S - #BT

33

3

3G Subscr

de-B Dep

2009

40

ribers

2009

21,

TS 3G

3%

3G Service

ribers (20

loyment

200900,000

3G

009,000

s & Infrast

N

006-2009)

(2006-200

17

tructure

NTS

09)

Harewhttp://

F

Fig


Figure Ta

gure Tab

445

#S

A

1

1

2

2

3

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

able 19 G

ble 20 Gro

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,000

Subs. 1

HC

AGRCAGR

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

HC

m/harewos

Growth of

owth of H

2007

2007100,000

PT - #

2008250.0250.0

PT - #

f HCPT’s

HCPT’s 3G

2008

200350,

Subsc

124%

800

Subsc

3

3G Subsc

G Subscri

20

08000

cribers

cribers

3G Service

cribers (2

ibers (AG

009

2009500,000

s 3G

200942.9123.6

s 3G

s & Infrast

HC

2006-2009

GR & CAG

18

tructure

CPT

9)

GR)

Harewhttp://

Fig

Figu


gure Tabl

re Table

1

2

30

40

50

60

70

#BT

A

1

1

1

1

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

le 21 Gro

22 Growt

0

00

00

00

00

00

00

0

20

20TS 2

AGRCAGR

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

m/harewos

wth of H

th of HCP

007

007200

HCPT

8

2008150.0150.0

HCPT

CPT’s No

PT’s Node

2008

200500

T - #BT

87%

800

T - #BT

3

ode-B Dep

e-B Deplo

20

080

TS 3G

TS 3G

3G Service

ployment

oyment (A

009

2009700

200940.087.1

s & Infrast

t (2006-20

AGR & CA

19

tructure

009)

AGR)

20



Abbreviations & Notes

AGR Annual Growth Rate

CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate

2008E End of 2008

2009Nov As of November 2009

MD Mobile Data

MI Mobile Internet i.e. Internet access via cellular & FWA networks

MI-I Mobile Internet - Intensive

MBB Mobile Broadband

TSEL PT. Telekomunikasi Selular (Telkomsel) ISAT PT. Indosat XL PT. XL Axiata (formerly Excelcomindo Pratama) NTS PT. Natrindo Telepon Selular HCPT PT. Hutchison CP Telecommunication

Data & Analytics

3G Services & Infrastructure