Web2.0 and the Future Internet: The Change in Business Models and Infrastructure

CWI

Nov 2010, Josef Noll

DSL-Partner Customer Seminar - Nov 2010

Web2.0 and the Future Internet: The change in business models

and infrastructure

about:Josef Noll, Professor

University of Oslo/UNIKChief Technologist, Movation AS

[email protected]

on behalf of the

Center for Wireless Innovation Norway

CWI Norway (http://cwin.no)

Josef Noll, Mohammad M. R. Chowdhury, Muhammad Bilal Ahmad, Ayaz Khan Afridi

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Nov 2010, Josef NollCollaborative Business in Future Internet

Collaborative Business in the Future Internet! Towards the Future Internet

– Web 2.0 experiences in customer/business relations! Infrastructures and Services

– A mobile network?– Capacity needs for wireless operations

! Collaborative business models– between Corporates and– between customers and corporates

! Analysis and expectations– either you collaborate or you vanish– Examples: IBM, Altibox, Apple

2


Web 2.0:Customer/business relations! Web 2.0 in business

– Networking, Collaboration, Public Communities

– Apple: The business environment & the APs

– Mobile Monday, First Tuesday....

! Prosumers: Producers = Consumers

– Youtube.com, BBC, ...– SUN, IBM

3

Innovation Stock Exchange - Sep 2010 - Josef Noll

3rd wave of convergence

• 1. wave: All-IP– flat world, global business

• 2. wave: Telecom - IT - Broadcast– from fixed to mobile and

quadruple play – Telecom = mobile

• 3. wave: Future Mobile Internet– Collaborative business– The business merger

4Collaboration and cooperation drives developments

core business

all-IP

Telco-IT

Future Internet

Community

Innovation Stock Exchange - Sep 2010 - Josef Noll

Share revenue

Share knowledge

Built Partner Networks

Customer Involvement

Interoperability

Open APIs

Prepare for collaboration

5Collaboration and cooperation drives developments

core business

Future Internet

Community


Example

Mobile & Fiber = Net!Works

(EU’s new technology platform)

6


Future Internet and Internet of ThingsReal world statements

7

"The privacy you are so fond of is mostly an illusion” – Scott Mc Nealy, Sun Microsystems

"By 2012, iPods ... be capable of holding all music you will ever hear in your life (or one year of video)By 2018 it can hold all videos ever produced” – Nikesh Arora, EMEA manager, Google

Your mobile phone is the representative in the

digital worldand the gateway to the

world of sensors

source: Gerhard Fettweis, TU Dresden

! The speed of development

stor

age

on s

ingl

e ch

ip

"Last year (2007) the world produced

more transistors than rice corns”

– Hans Christian Haugli, CEO, Telenor R&I 2008

"Now we have roughly 5.2 Mio mobile subscribers.

In some year we will have 30...50 Mio devices on

the mobile network” – Hans Christian Haugli, CEO, Telenor Objects

2010

"From Kilo (103 ) bytes to Tera (1012 ) and Zeta (1021 ) bytes

"Global ubiquitous Internet-based solution with hyper Connectivity

"Hundred-fold increase in network flow brought by mass terminals and mass digital content, and the thousand-fold, increase in traffic flow on mobile networks

"Users are spending more time on the phone & internet"Average household spending on communication falls" Consumer pay less while getting better value -> they pay

~30% less than 5 years ago

"Significant growth in traffic while slow in revenue" User experience at risk

"What%do%we%do%with%a%surging%traffic%#Limit/control%it?#Turn%it%to%revenue?#Bring%the%cost%of%it%down?%

Diverged Traffic & Revenue Growth

8

Cost reduction is a very critical aspect of the future networks. Telecom seems to be the only sector delivering price decrease

Traffic

Revenue

Gap

Complexity

Time

[source: Sharam G Niri, 2010] (adapted)

RelayFemtoSmallMicro/PicoMacro

Walled Garden

Open Access

Coverage%Map

Capacity%Map

Quality%Map


LTE:Expectation and Real network usage

970% indoor users means 30% reduction of cell capacity, and only 45% of satisfied users

• Expectation [Motorola 2009]

– 38% of users > 20 Mbit/s– 32% of users 7...20 Mbit/s

– 30% of users 1.2...7 Mbit/s

70-80% indoor usage

70-80% indoor usage


LTE:Expectation and Real network usage

970% indoor users means 30% reduction of cell capacity, and only 45% of satisfied users

• Expectation [Motorola 2009]

– 38% of users > 20 Mbit/s– 32% of users 7...20 Mbit/s

– 30% of users 1.2...7 Mbit/s

70-80% indoor usage

70-80% indoor usage

16%

17%

32%

35%

Reality

- no femto- indoor usage


The LTE simulation environment

10x_pos [m]

y_po

s [m

]

Simulation of 7 base stations, each with 120 deg sector antennas

Target sector with 3 indoor femtocells(including macroscopic fading)

Signal to Noise ration in download(SISO, macroscopic fading)


First simulation results

11

x_pos [m]

y_po

s [m

]

Signal to Noise ration in download(SISO, macroscopic and shadow fading)

! Networked dimensioned for ~80 Mbit/s

! Worst case:– indoor users at the edge of the

cells– 20 dB attenuation (into

buildings)! 20-30% indoor users reduces

aggregated throughput to 40 Mbit/s

! 50% indoor users let the network collapse (aggr. throughput <15 Mbit/s)

Realistic: >90% indoor users in LTE

CWI


Business perspective of Femtocells

12Total network cost reduction more than 70% with user-owned base stations

40% market share

Ann

ual N

etw

ork

Cos

ts [$

]

percentage of customers with home-BS

total costs

[source: H. Claussen, 2007]

OpEx and CapEx calculations based on “free provisioning” of home base stations

CWI


Business perspective of Femtocells

12Total network cost reduction more than 70% with user-owned base stations

40% market share

Ann

ual N

etw

ork

Cos

ts [$

]

percentage of customers with home-BS

total costs

[source: H. Claussen, 2007]

OpEx and CapEx calculations based on “free provisioning” of home base stations


Collaborative Business Models

Near Field Communication

(the mobile payment)

13


NFC technology and use case! Based on RFID technology at

13.56 MHz! Typical operating distance 10 cm ! Compatible with RFID ! Data rate today up to 424 kbit/s ! Philips, Sony and Nokia

14

! ECMA-340, ISO/IEC 18092 & ECMA-352, …standards

! Powered and non-self powered devices

28.2.2008, Josef NollNFC market and applications, 2009 and beyond

NFCIP-2 Interface and protocol (ISO/IEC 21481)

15

ECMA-340

Interface Standards

ISO/IEC 14443

PCD mode

(MIFARE, FeliCa)

ISO/IEC 15693

VCD mode

(facility access)

NFC deviceProximity Card

ReaderVicinity Card

Reader

28.2.2008, Josef NollNFC market and applications, 2009 and beyond

NFCIP-2 Interface and protocol (ISO/IEC 21481)

15

ECMA-340

Interface Standards

ISO/IEC 14443

PCD mode

(MIFARE, FeliCa)

ISO/IEC 15693

VCD mode

(facility access)

NFC deviceProximity Card

ReaderVicinity Card

Reader

NO15693 okay

Josef Noll, “Who owns the SIM?”, 20 November 2007

Third party business model• Media, • Banks, Service providers• Telecom, Corporate, Home

Identity and personalisation

provider

Customer care

Serviceaggregator

Authentication and Access

provider

Paymentprovider

Content provider

• Service aggregator• Convenient interfaces• Ease of use

• Identity and personalisation provider• Convenience• Trust

16

CWI

Nov 2010, Josef Noll 17

Ecosystem: The collaborative business model

Source : Mobey Forum Ltd. + Bent Bentsen, 2008

– Telenor and DnB NOR establishes TSM Nordic AS in April 2008

for NFC


Challenges and Benefits

0

50

100

150

200

2006 2008 2010

Telecom favourite Third party favourite 18

Ope

rato

r’s m

arke

t sha

re

year


Challenges and Benefits

How insecure is the Internet?

Will the phone be the only secure element?

Dynamic service environment? On-the-fly creation of services?

Are Google, facebook and flickr more trusted than telecom

operators?

Visa and Mastercard enable convenient small amount

purchases

0

50

100

150

200

2006 2008 2010

Telecom favourite Third party favourite

Convenience of usage

18

Ope

rato

r’s m

arke

t sha

re

yearold news: May 2007


“Wer zu spät kommt, den ...”

I was wrong!

19


“Wer zu spät kommt, den ...”

I was wrong!

19


Analysis and Expectations

Collaborate or vanish

Examples:

•IBM

•Altibox

•Apple

20




Examples:

•IBM

•Altibox

•Apple

20




Examples:

•IBM

•Altibox

•Apple

20




Examples:

•IBM

•Altibox

•Apple

20

Nov 2010, Josef NollCollaborative Business in Future Internet 21

Conclusions

! Future Internet means collaborative business

! Example: Indoor coverage with high data rates

-35%

expectation reality

>20 Mbit/s 38 % 16 %

7-20 Mbit/s 32 % 17 %1.2-7 Mbit/s 30 % 32 %

• Experiences– Collaborate - or you will loose– Incorporating the customers

Collaborative Radio & Operation, the driver for cost-effective future wireless broadband networks

• The Future Internet as the business merger

CWI


Thanks toMy colleagues at UNIK• Mohammad Mushfiqur Rahman

Chowdhury for 5G discussions and calculations– see tutorial ICWMC 2010 for whole picture

• Arlindo Bengui André, Muhammad Bilal Ahmad, Ayaz Khan Afridi for LTE work

My colleagues at CWI• Frank Reichert for comments on 5GOur cooperation partners at CTIF (Aalborg University)• Ramjee Prasad for initiating the “discussion”Our industrial partners• Bjørn Amundsen from Telenor for

discussions on coverage and capacity• Tom Guldberg from Network Norway for

femtocell

• Vegard Kjenner from Netcom for LTE usage• Per Hjalmar Lehne from Telenor for

generations• Jørgen Grinnes from Telenor for 3G

examples• Bent Bentsen from DnB NOR for the

information on Payment and TSM Nordic• Truls Berg from Movation for mobile usage

data • Linda Firveld from MobileMonday for

femtocell industrialisation• Shahram G Niri from NEC for collaborative

discussionsMy Telecom colleagues from various Eurescom projects• and many, many more....

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more info: "Collaborative Radio for 5G Mobile and Wireless Communications, ICWMC 2010 tutorial, Valencia, Sep 2010