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This talk was first given at the University of Manchester course on Foresight: Exploring the Future, Shaping the Present. It uses four case studies to explore the processes, communication and outcome of scenario based thinking. In public policy, it looks at radical thinking in the health service, and at challenging assumptions about the Green economy. Looking inside organisations, case studies examine the effect of simple models on changing mindsets, and the use of scenarios to create a vision for a new business in diagnostics.
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Foresight: Exploring the Future, Shaping the Present
8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 1
Using Scenarios Why use scenarios,
and how to make sure they are effective
Gill Ringland CEO & Fellow, SAMI Consulting
July 2013
Robust decisions in uncertain times
SAMI
• Our offer – To enhance the capability to anticipate
– To transform emergent thinking into strategy and implementation
– Consulting, executive education and research to deliver “robust decisions in uncertain times”
• “You can never plan the future by the past” – Edmund Burke, 1729-1797
• Formed in 1989
– Until 1999 based at St Andrews University
– Now virtual, owned by Fellows and Principals
– Celebrated our 20th anniversary at the Royal Society
8/4/2013 2 www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Agenda
• Why use scenarios
– Scenarios & forecasts
– Early indicators
• Using scenarios: examples relating to Health
– Radical thinking in the National Health Service
– Scenarios lead to a rethink
– Scenarios for the future of diagnostics
– Health & Safety impacts of “Green” jobs
8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 3
Robust decisions in uncertain times
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2006 2011 2016 2020 2030
Actual Forecast now
London population
1991
forecast
“A trend is a trend until it bends” 04/08/2013 4 www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Forecasts
Today Trends
Range
Of
Uncertainties
Timing ?
Forecasts are over-precise
04/08/2013 5 www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Scenarios
• Forecasts focus on “the right” answer and a partial “right” is often viewed as wrong
• Scenarios are – “an internally consistent view of what the future might be”,
– “not a forecast but one possible future outcome”
• Scenarios explore different possible futures
Forecasts Scenarios
Source: Professor Michael Porter, “Competitive Advantage:”, (Free Press, 1985)
04/08/2013 6 www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Line manager, Corporate Strategist Scenarios Future
Engineer manager thinker
Early indicators Portfolio Ideas & systems Alternate “843” trends
Decisions, management Planning worlds interconnected
Timelines Options
Decisions
Thinking styles
04/08/2013 7 www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Early indicators
• Early indicators are a powerful way of engaging the
organisation
• Are clear “events” which would be a sign that a scenario
is evolving
• Shell & gas fields
– Gorbachev promotion as early indicator of changes in Russia
– Decided not to buy gas fields as Russian ones would change
pricing
– Shell bought Russian gas after the price had collapsed
• Often ask a group to think up newspaper headlines that
would signal a scenario, as a way of “thinking in” to a
scenario.
8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 8
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Using scenarios
• Public policy
– Radical thinking in the National Health Service
– Challenging assumptions about the Green economy
• Inside organisations
– Scenarios lead to a rethink in planning
– Scenarios for the future of diagnostics create a vision
• Will cover for each case study
– Process
– Presentation and communication
– Outcomes
8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 9
Robust decisions in uncertain times
NHS – Hemingford scenarios
• New Head of Planning at Department of Health, National
Health Service (NHS), Richard Walsh (now a SAMI
Fellow)
• Focal question: what and who is the NHS for?
• 30 people consulted on clinical practice, public values,
context for health care, demography, disease trends
• 12 people in a 2 day workshop at Hemingford
• 4 scenarios developed, with implications for
– Primary care led NHS,
– Health and health care
– Public involvement
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 10 8/4/2013
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Drivers of change
Role of
NHS
Climate
change
Technology Budget
Changing
lifestyles
Increasing
population
Demographics +?
+++ -- - +++
+
++
+
Deficit reduction
National? Centralised?
--
+/-? +/-?
Wellness
or
illness? +++?
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Scenario matrix for NHS
Forecastable
“trends” Uncertain
Less important
Important
Demographics - ageing
Increasing population
Changing lifestyles
Technology advances
Disease orientation or well-
being oriented?
Health national vs
international?
Centralised or decentralised
management?
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Visualising the scenarios
Wellbeing as you like it
Cen
tralised
Decen
tralised
Wellbeing Illness oriented
International
National
Health is wealth
Science makes the big push
Renewed welfare order
Robust decisions in uncertain times
The outcomes
•8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk Page 14
• The scenario team designed and delivered briefing
events for senior management in the NHS to great
acclaim
• They went to a number of NHS sites and held lunch time
events with heated agreement
• They did not engage with the public
• They did not engage with the politicians
• When the next government came in, the new Minister
was not aware of the work & thought that the only task
was to spend more and make NHS more efficient at high
tech treatment of illness (Science makes the big push)
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Wanless Report
SAMI Consulting 2006
• Treasury report chaired by Derek Wanless – “Securing Our Future Health: Taking a Long-Term View” (to
2022)
• Discussed the role of demographics, changing patterns of disease and cures, technology
• 3 simple scenarios – used a numerical model for demands, and for costs – Solid progress: less change in preventative care
– Slow uptake: NHS performance improvements
– Fully engaged : changes in demand
• Showed that – within any possible expenditure on the NHS
– changes in patterns of demand were needed to balance the books between demand and supply
– Neither Solid Progress or Slow Uptake were viable
Robust decisions in uncertain times
The outcomes
•8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk Page 16
• The report upset the “official future”
• Science makes the big push
• Started the understanding that technology is only part of
the answer
• Change in UK health policy focus towards changing
peoples’ behaviours
• Reduction in obesity
• Increase in anti-smoking campaigns
• Promotion of exercise
• GPs offer yearly check ups
• Also a move towards self help via pharmacists, etc
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• SAMI Fellow Michael Owen ran GSK’s first scenarios project • Interviews & desk research
• Workshops to develop scenarios for the global health care industry, explore strategic options
• Led to new focus on global initiatives & new technologies
• Also projects in R&D, marketing, manufacturing & supply, regions
• SAMI asked back to work with manufacturing and supply, using scenarios to plan for flexible (“agile”) manufacturing processes
• Scenarios later used to set vision for diagnostics new business
Robust decisions in uncertain times
The diagnostics background
• Since the science and technology of
genetics was developing fast
– Should GSK develop their capability in
diagnostics and prognostics?
– If so, should this be by acquisition or
inhouse development?
• Decided to set up Predictive Medicine
Group
• Needed to set vision, mission, long
term goals
– Scenarios project coached by Clem Bezold
of Institute for Alternative Futures
8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 18
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Creating the scenarios
• Assumptions: we will be able to predict in the near future
– Who is likely to develop a particular disease
– How treatments will work with different individuals
– Likely outcome of treatments
• Scan for drivers of change, group into clusters which
were scored for probability and impact on Glaxo’s
business
• Create 4 scenarios
– Best guess Health care gains continue
– Hard times Recession slows health care gains
– Paradigm shift Integrated biosciences pay off
– Visionary paradigm shift Globalhealth.com
8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 19
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Using the scenarios
• Team identified the drivers which were important in all
four scenarios
• Drivers which were only found in one scenario were
used to develop early indicators
• The vision needed to be robust across all scenarios
– Improving lifelong healthcare through predictive knowledge
• The mission included integrating novel diagnostics and
prognostics with therapeutic interventions (GSK’s
traditional business)
8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 20
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Presentation
• Recognised difficulty of presenting
plausible futures to operational
managers
• Chose to use a mock television
interview around “The Fifth Colony”
• Four colonists had been in space and
developed a health care system for
their scenario over 10 years
• Why were they different?
• The Fifth Colony represented the ideal
future which captured the learning over
10 years from the colonists (scenarios) »
8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 21
Robust decisions in uncertain times
The outcomes
• Predictive Medicine Group’s recommendations accepted
• Scenarios widely used by Glaxo
– Briefings across the company
– Scenario brochure describing the scenarios distributed across
the company
– Scenarios used by other groups to formulate strategy
• Released to the public at an industry conference
– Then presented in seminars etc as a contribution to public policy
in medicine
• Early indicators used by Business Development to seek
new opportunities
8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 22
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Health risks associated with
‘green’ technologies
• Project for European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-
OSHA) http://www.samiconsulting.co.uk/4EUOSHAreport2013.pdf
– SAMI team led by Fellow John Reynolds worked with UK Health and
Safety Laboratory (HSL) and Technopolis
• Looked at new and emerging risks from new technologies in ‘green
jobs’ to 2020
• Selection of (16) key drivers of change and (8) key technologies
• Developed a set of base scenarios
• Developed timelines for each key technology
• Analysed new and emerging risk for safety and health at work
• Presented across Europe, sponsored by Health & Safety
organisations
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 23
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Main Drivers of Future Change
1. Economic Growth
• Growth In Europe
• Global Growth rates
2. Green Culture and Values
• Public Opinion
• Government Incentives and controls
• Energy Efficiency and Resource Use
• Waste Management and Recycling
3. Rate of Innovation in Green technology
24
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Gre
en
Valu
es
Economic Growth
Deep Green Strongly green
culture and values
Bonus World Strong Growth
Global and European
Win - Win High innovation in Green Technology
Ve
ry S
tro
ng
Low Growth High Growth
We
ak
Three Scenarios
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Win - Win
Defined by
– Strongly Green Values
– High economic growth
– High rate of Innovation in Green
Technologies
• Green growth is sustainable.
• Green activities are seen as a major contribution to
economic growth rather than simply as a cost
• Technology is delivering on its promise to make green
growth achievable
26
Robust decisions in uncertain times
“I guess every smart grid needs a call centre but it’s still
pretty stressful”
“We scored 8 out of 10 in the last
green audit… how can we do
even better next time?”
“every day we continue to re-
design the human-machine
interface...”
“welcome to the L.Z.C. Safety & Health @
Work training module. Today
we look at everyday
hazards...”
Win-Win Human systems
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Win-Win Manufacturing
now that robots or “co-bots” do
most of the work.... What’s there to worry
about ???
Boredom ... insecurity ... Keeping up with innovation ... And,
what if they do not keep out of our way...
+++ THIS HUMAN HAS A
POOR TRAINING
RECORD+++ KEEP HER
UNDER ACTIVE SURVEILLANCE
+++
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Bonus World
Defined by
• High economic growth
• Low Green Values
• Medium rate of Innovation in Green
Technology (directed towards profits)
29
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Deep Green
Defined by
• Strongly Green Values
• Low economic growth
• Medium rate of Innovation in Green
Technologies
30
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Outcomes
• The scenarios provided a a neutral and safe
environment for important discussions between different
groups of stakeholders
– Many current assumptions were challenged (including targets
that are unlikely to be met)
– Some organisations realised that their plans were not robust
• The scenarios could be used for the analysis of a
broader range of technologies and policies
• The scenarios were a robust tool for the anticipation
and analysis of future challenges; and developing
more robust ‘future proofed’ strategies and policies
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 31
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Summary
• Why use scenarios
– Scenarios & forecasts
– Early indicators
• Using scenarios: examples relating to Health
– Radical thinking in the National Health Service
• But failure to communicate to decision makers
– Scenarios lead to a rethink
• Numerical models changed assumptions
– Scenarios for the future of diagnostics
• Communication to operational managers
– Health & Safety impacts of “Green” jobs
• Cartoons to highlight the different values embodied in the scenarios
8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 32
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Thank you!
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 33
If you would like to get our monthly enewsletter
eSAMI ---- please ask – [email protected].
For details of our training courses (with the
Horizon Scanning Centre of the Foresight
Unit) see www.samiconsulting.co.uk.
For details of our Blowing the Cobwebs off our Mind
events, please ask,
The NHS case study is in “Scenario Planning”,
published by John Wiley. The GSK case study is in
“Scenarios in Business”, also published by John Wiley
The Report from the “Green Jobs” study is on the SAMI
web site www.samiconsulting.co.uk. .