The Second Half of the Chessboard

Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reservedCopyright © ian fenwick. All rights reserved

MBA for Life Seminar:

The Second Half of the Chessboard

Dr Ian Fenwick

May 11, 2015Professor of Marketing, Sasin Graduate Institute, Bangkok

Professor Emeritus, Schulich School of Business, TorontoVisiting Professor of Marketing, Griffith University

Founding Partner, AnyPrep LLC

…why the future’s bound to be weird

Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved

I’m really not a fortune-

teller. This presentation

is about what we can

already see around us


https://www.flickr.com/photos/qubodup/3201597868 by Iwan Gabovitch http://time.com/29910/facebook-can-identify-faces-as-well-as-you/

Story told about the inventor of

chess…his ruler liked the

game so much he offered the

inventor anything he wantedHe asked for 1 grain of rice on

square 1, 2 on square 2, 4 in

square 3, doubling each time

All went well until square 32,

which need just over 4 billion

grains…that’s a large field.

But then square 33 needed 2

large fields….

That’s when they did the math,

and figured the last square

would need more rice than ever

grown in the world to date

…the second half of the

chessboard needs 4 billion times

as much rice as the first half

Exponential progressions can really get out of hand….

https://www.flickr.com/photos/qubodup/3201597868


Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Chessboard

Data, agents, bots, algorithms

Nearables, wearables, steerables & other smart things


Moore’s Law:1 square about 18 months

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Sputnik_asm.jpg a replica of Sputnik, PUBLIC DOMAIN, NASA

you are here

start at Sputnik (1957): now 40th square

Computing power sort of doubles

every 18 months or so…say we

started with Sputnik


https://www.flickr.com/photos/qubodup/3201597868 by Iwan Gabovitch http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Blue_versus_Garry_Kasparov/

http://www.wired.com/2014/10/future-of-artificial-intelligence/

Big Blue1996: wetware 4, hardware 2

1997: wetware 2½, hardware 3½



https://www.flickr.com/photos/qubodup/3201597868 by Iwan Gabovitch http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watson_(computer)

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/tech/2014/11/artificial-intelligence-singularity-theory

Watson2011: Watson (hardware) wins $1m, beats Jeopardy champion wetwares


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watson_(computer)


https://www.flickr.com/photos/qubodup/3201597868 by Iwan Gabovitch http://www.forbes.com/sites/amitchowdhry/2014/03/18/facebooks-deepface-software-can-

match-faces-with-97-25-accuracy/ http://sterlingcrispin.com/data-masks.html

2013: DeepFace is watching youDeepFace 97.25%, wetware 97.53%

Sterling Crispin’s “Data Masks”


http://www.forbes.com/sites/amitchowdhry/2014/03/18/facebooks-deepface-software-can-match-faces-with-97-25-accuracy/

http://sterlingcrispin.com/data-masks.html


https://www.flickr.com/photos/qubodup/3201597868 by Iwan Gabovitch http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/21emotions.htm

2014: computers recognize sentiment;can identify 21 expressions

including complex or contradictoryemotions “happily disgusted”

“sadly angry” etc

happy disgustedhappily

disgusted



https://www.flickr.com/photos/qubodup/3201597868 by Iwan Gabovitch http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/21emotions.htm

happy disgustedhappily

disgusted

…distinguishes authentic expressions from false expressions

with an accuracy rate of 85%...[vs. wetware’s] 55%



http://www.wired.com/2015/02/google-ai-plays-atari-like-pros/all/1

Google has built a “a general-learning algorithm that should be applicable

to many other tasks,” says Koray Kavukcuoglu, a Google researcher.

from Deep Mind, bought by Google 2014 for estimated $400M

Uses “deep learning and… deep reinforcement learning”


Part 1

Part 3

Part 2

Chessboard



https://www.flickr.com/photos/eugeneflores/3518082842/in/photolist-4Ju9bQ-4JpUpp-4JpVkx-4JpUxF-4Ju93W-4Ju9KA-4Ju9m3-7dsumf-4Ju9uf-7doBue-mPxWAV-

5q8apy-Uicdq-4JeAbX-7mJyrF-7mNqqQ-9oBiv5-6sWqrp-6A9jsu-6mT6sJ Eugene Flores

https://www.flickr.com/photos/eugeneflores/3518082842/in/photolist-4Ju9bQ-4JpUpp-4JpVkx-4JpUxF-4Ju93W-4Ju9KA-4Ju9m3-7dsumf-4Ju9uf-7doBue-mPxWAV-5q8apy-Uicdq-4JeAbX-7mJyrF-7mNqqQ-9oBiv5-6sWqrp-6A9jsu-6mT6sJ


http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/if-you-think-big-datas-challenges-are-tough-now/ http://www.csc.com/insights/flxwd/78931-big_data_universe_beginning_to_explode

Just when you figured out what a gigabyte was…

2020: 44 ZB

2013: 4.4 ZB2007: all information < 1/3 of a zettabyte

learn zettabyte= 1 billion gigabytes

http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/if-you-think-big-datas-challenges-are-tough-now/


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Internet,_nobody_knows_you%27re_a_dog#mediaviewer/File:Internet_dog.jpg

"Internet dog" by Source. Licensed under Fair use via Wikipedia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Internet_dog.jpg#mediaviewer/File:Internet_dog.jpg

Peter Steiner 1993…the most reproduced cartoon from The New Yorker

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Internet,_nobody_knows_you're_a_dog#mediaviewer/File:Internet_dog.jpg


These are the droids you’re looking for…

http://gizmodo.com/more-than-half-of-

internet-traffic-is-just-bots-1491356746

2013

half the trades on Wall Street by “autonomous machines”


http://pronouncemath.blogspot.com/2013/04/muhammad-ibn-musa-al-khwarizmi.html

All that data’s crunched by algorithms…which word

comes from the mangled pronunciation of the name of

a mathematician of 1200+ years ago…who also gave

us the name ‘algebra’

Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reservedhttp://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/apr/02/google-could-be-fined-4bn-ec-signals-legal-challenge-margrethe-vestager

Want to find something?Algorithms rule search

Some say algorithms

fix search…certainly v

few go beyond first

few results


Want to find something?

Same search on

DuckDuckGo shows

fewer YouTube and

greater prominence to

group’s own site


http://www.mondaynote.com/2015/02/01/from-trust-in-news-to-news-profiling/

In bots and algorithms, we trust


http://www.mondaynote.com/2015/02/01/from-trust-in-news-to-news-profiling/

In bots and algorithms, we trust


Want to influence elections?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2014/05/12/research-in-india-suggests-google-search-results-can-influence-an-election/

Undecided voters in IndiaManipulated search results to increase prominence of different candidatesOn average shifted votes by 12.5% Among the group shown pro-Gandhi rankings, his support increased by 26.5%.


Want make people happy, or sad?

Social Contagion

reduced exposure to friends' "positive

emotional content",results in fewer

positive posts And vice versa


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streisand_effect "Streisand Estate" by Copyright (C) 2002 Kenneth & Gabrielle Adelman, California Coastal Records Project,

www.californiacoastline.org. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons -

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Streisand_Estate.jpg#mediaviewer/File:Streisand_Estate.jpg

Want to hide something?

Before lawsuit: "Image 3850" 6 downloads In the month after? more than 420,000

The Streisland Effect

Don’t so what Striesland

did…litigation doesn’t hide stuff on

the web…it makes it infamous

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streisand_effect


http://gizmodo.com/why-people-keep-trying-to-erase-the-hollywood-sign-from-1658084644 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollywood_Sign "Aerial Hollywood Sign" by Jelson25 -

Own work. Licensed under Public Domain via Wikimedia Commons -

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Aerial_Hollywood_Sign.jpg#mediaviewer/File:Aerial_Hollywood_Sign.jpg

http://la.curbed.com/archives/2011/06/big_tourists_go_away_message_shows_up_below_hollywood_sign.php?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter#touristsgoaway

-4

Want to really hide something?

Like the residents near the

Hollywood sign did…tired of

endless tourist in their canyons…

http://gizmodo.com/why-people-keep-trying-to-erase-the-hollywood-sign-from-1658084644

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollywood_Sign



http://gizmodo.com/why-people-keep-trying-to-erase-the-hollywood-sign-from-1658084644 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollywood_Sign "Aerial Hollywood Sign" by Jelson25 -

Own work. Licensed under Public Domain via Wikimedia Commons -

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Aerial_Hollywood_Sign.jpg#mediaviewer/File:Aerial_Hollywood_Sign.jpg http://www.dailynews.com/20120315/gps-directions-to-

hollywood-sign-will-change

http://la.curbed.com/archives/2011/06/big_tourists_go_away_message_shows_up_below_hollywood_sign.php?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter#touristsgoaway

-4

you are here

sign ishere

can't physically block access, so virtually, algorithmically, block access...

Google suggests

walk this

way…

Change the algorithm…online

navigation now sends you to a

viewing center, not the sign…

http://gizmodo.com/why-people-keep-trying-to-erase-the-hollywood-sign-from-1658084644

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollywood_Sign



Want to understand someone?Other’s correlation with person’s self-assessment

algorithm using 10 FB likes

algorithm using70 FB likes

algorithm using300 FB likes

Work Colleague

FriendCo-habitant

Spouse

FamilyHuman Average

Computer Average

©2015 by National Academy of Sciences

Wu Youyou et al. PNAS 2015;112:1036-1040 http://www.pnas.org/content/112/4/1036.full


Catch someone ‘in the mood’?

…launching playlists as a proxy for the activity or mood you're in…[they have roughly 400,000 playlists related to barbecues…and 1.5 billion playlists in total]

“http://adage.com/article/digital/spotify-playlists-gauge-moods-ad-

targeting/298066/?utm_source=digital_email&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=adage&ttl=1429805375


http://streamditto.com/

http://ditto.us.com/

…algorithms get visual


http://motherboard.vice.com/read/all-of-your-tumblr-photos-will-now-be-scanned-for-branded-content

• Ditto's algorithm uses images from Twitter, Instagram & Tumblr

• trained to recognize brands• …& indicators of users' feelings

towards them • builds maps of brand affiliations…

…algorithms get visual


Want to guess someone’s age?

http://www.how-old.net/ http://www.independent.co.uk/life-

style/gadgets-and-tech/news/uploading-pictures-to-find-out-how-

old-you-are-gives-microsoft-the-right-to-post-them-wherever-

they-want-10219428.html

http://www.theverge.com/2015/4/30/8522649/microsoft-how-old-

do-i-look

Not only does Microsoft’s

algorithm think I’m 84…it also

allegedly can use my pic…

http://www.how-old.net/

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/uploading-pictures-to-find-out-how-old-you-are-gives-microsoft-the-right-to-post-them-wherever-they-want-10219428.html


Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Chessboard


Nearables, wearables, steerables & other smart things


Beacons

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pQW0PrI6x_M



everything that we formerly electrified, we

will now cognitize“


[a] layer of connected intelligence that

augments the actions of individuals,

automates processes, & incorporates digitallyempowered machines into our lives,

increasing our insight into & control over thetangible world

…fish don’t see the water

http://chiefmartec.com/2013/06/martecs-law-technology-changes-exponentially-organizations-change-logarithmically/

http://share.cisco.com/internet-of-things.html

Accenture Technology Vision 2014 http://www.accenture.com/microsite/it-technology-trends-

2014/Documents/TechVision/Downloads/Accenture_Technology_Vision_2014.pdf

digital–physical blur: extending intelligence to the edge…“



[a] layer of connected intelligence that augments the actions of individuals, automates processes, & incorporates digitally empowered machines into our lives, increasing our insight into & control over the tangible world

…fish don’t see the water


http://share.cisco.com/internet-of-things.html

Accenture Technology Vision 2014 http://www.accenture.com/microsite/it-technology-trends-

2014/Documents/TechVision/Downloads/Accenture_Technology_Vision_2014.pdf

digital–physical blur: extending intelligence to the edge…“

“



Ownership?

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/miss-a-payment-good-luck-moving-that-car/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0&pagewanted=all

http://www.wired.com/2015/04/dmca-ownership-john-deere/

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/miss-a-payment-good-luck-moving-that-car/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0&pagewanted=all


…machine-to-machine, or M2M, is a

natural consequence of…computerization of devices around us…“

David Clark, a senior research scientist at MIT

Devices…have their

own patterns of communication, their own‘social networks,’ which they use to share& aggregate information, & undertakeautomatic control & activation.

…humans will be in a world in which

decisions are being made by an active setof cooperating devices.

Pew Research Center, March 2014, “Digital Life in 2025” http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/03/11/digital-life-in-2025/

http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/03/11/digital-life-in-2025/


Pew Research Center, March 2014, “Digital Life in 2025” http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/03/11/digital-life-in-2025/

…machine-to-machine, or M2M, is a natural consequence of the increasing computerization of all the devices around us…Devices will…have their own patterns of communication, their own ‘social networks,’which they use to share & aggregate information, & undertake automatic control & activation. …humans will be in a world in which decisions are being made by an active set of cooperating devices.

“

David Clark, a senior research scientist at MIT

http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/03/11/digital-life-in-2025/

Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved©Copyright Ian Fenwick 2010

segmentation


http://www.contagious.com/blogs/news-and-views/17888484-the-future-of-advertising-is-software

xtreme segmentation


Vigo knows you’re drowsy before you do “http://techcrunch.com/2014/01/17/vigo/ http://lechal.com/ http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/jul/25/vibrating-smartshoes-google-maps-lechal

http://techcrunch.com/2014/01/17/vigo/



The more people who use an AI, the smarter it gets.

…our AI future is likely to be ruled by anoligarchy of two or three large, general

purpose cloud-based commercialintelligences

The smarter it gets, the more people use it.The more people that use it, the smarter it gets


https://www.flickr.com/photos/tambako/494144260 Tiger eating in the snow by Tambako The Jaguar

Digital is disruptive …it’s a tiger

There was a young lady of Riga,Who smiled as she rode on the tiger;They returned from their rideWith the lady inside,and the smile on the face of the tiger

https://www.flickr.com/photos/tambako/494144260