The Future of Displays

WHEN WILL NEW TYPES OF DISPLAYS

BECOME ECONOMICALLY FEASIBLE

AND THUS BEGIN TO DIFFUSE?

5TH SESSION OF MT5009

A/Prof Jeffrey Funk

Division of Engineering and Technology

Management

National University of Singapore

For information on other technologies, see http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations

What is the

future of

displays?

How big

will these

displays be?

And how will

we interact

with them?

Will We Use

Our Hands

i.e., Gesture

Interfaces?

Or something

else? (session 8)

How About Our Homes? What will they be Like?

Another View of Future Displays

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Cf7IL_eZ38

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZkHpNnXLB0

Can you write down all the applications that you

see

What’s Driving the Emergence of these New

Applications?

Falling cost of LCD displays

Increasing performance of LCD displays (e.g., 3D

displays)

Rising performance and falling cost of OLED displays

New forms of displays such as e-ink and holograms

Session 8 discusses touch displays as part of human-

computer interfaces

Many improvements are being made here and will impact on

smart phones, tablet computers, and other forms of mobile

devices

Session Technology

1 Objectives and overview of course

2 How/when do new technologies become economically feasible?

3 Two types of improvements: 1) Creating materials that better

exploit physical phenomena; 2) Geometrical scaling

4 Semiconductors, ICs, electronic systems

5 Sensors, MEMS and the Internet of Things

6 Bio-electronics, Wearable Computing, Health Care, DNA

Sequencers

7 Lighting, Lasers, and Displays

8 Roll-to Roll Printing, Human-Computer Interfaces

9 Information Technology and Land Transportation

10 Nano-technology and Superconductivity

This is Seventh Session of MT5009

Some of the applications in the Videos

Photovoltaic glass, Touch screen displays on closets,

in cars, phones, tablets, automobile windows, tables,

walls (classrooms), 3D displays, in middle of air, in

forest, augmented reality

PV glass, mirror, refrigerator, counter table, autos

(GPS), MRT maps, retail clothing, eBook readers

Outline

Liquid Crystal Displays (LCDs)

Cost reductions from increases in scale of LCD substrates (and production equipment)

3D LCD displays

Organic light emitting diode (OLED) displays

Electronic paper

Holographic displays

Composition of LCD Panels

http://www.ercservice.com/learning/what-is-tft-lcd.html

Another Breakdown of LCD TV

CCFL Backlit LCD TV CCFL Backlight

DiffusersTo ensure a uniform brightness across panel

PolarizerTo ensure that the image produced is aligned correctly

LCD PanelAn LCD panel is made up of millions of pixels filled with liquid crystals arranged in grid, which open and shut to let the backlight through and create images

Antiglare CoatingProvides a mirror-like finish, making the backlight appear brighter

Display Screen

CCFL (cold

cathode

fluorescent

light)

(78.6 mm)

backlight has

been replaced

with white-

light LEDs

(29.9 mm)

“LED Television”

Not really an LED television

An LCD television that is backlit by white LEDs

Lower energy costs, higher contrast, variety of advantages

But can’t make television only from LEDs because different color LEDs require different materials and those materials cannot be placed on the same substrate (at least currently)

Other Improvements in LCD Televisions

Source: AUOSource: OLED Summit Preview, San Francisco, September 27-29 Barry Young, Young Market Research, February 18, 2013

Outline


Cost reductions from increases in scale of LCD substrates

3D LCD displays


Electronic Paper


Nishimura’s Law: The size of LCD substrate grows by a factor of 1.8 every 3

years, doubles every 3.6 years (large panels are cut into appropriate sizes for electronic products)

Less than half the time for IC wafers to double in size (7.5 years)

Odawara’s Law: Costs fall by 22-23% for doubling in cumulative production

Kichihara’s Law: every three years Power consumption decreases by 44%

Panel thickness and weight are reduced by one-third

Number of bits needed per screen increases fourfold

Display Panel Trends – towards larger and

cheaper panels

Source: http://metaverseroadmap.org/inputs.html, US Display Consortium (USDC)

http://metaverseroadmap.org/inputs.html

http://www.economist.com/node/21543215 Source: Television Making: Cracking Up, Economist, January 21st, 2012, p. 66

Increases in Scale of LCD Substrates (and also IC

Wafers, Solar Substrates)

Equipment costs per area of output fall as size of equipment is increased, similar to chemical plants

For chemical plants

Cost is function of surface area (or radius squared)

Output is function of volume (radius cubed)

Thus, costs increase by 2/3 for each doubling of equipment capacity

For LCD Substrates, IC Wafers, and Solar Substrates

Processing, transfer, and setup time (inverse of output) fall as area of substrate increases since entire area can be processed, transferred, and setup together

Another Benefit from Large Panels is Smaller Edge Effects

Panel

Equipment

Effect Effects: the equipment must be much

wider than panel to achieve uniformity

Ratio of equipment to panel width falls as the

size of the panel is increased

Increases in LCD Substrate Size

Source: www.lcd-tv-reviews.com/pages/fabricating_tft_lcd.php

Scale of photolithographic aligners (upper

left), sputtering equipment (top right), and

mirrors for aligners (lower left) for LCD

equipment

Source: http://www.canon.com/technology/

canon_tech/explanation/fpd.html

http://www.electroiq.com/articles/sst/print/volume-50/issue-2/features/cover-article/scaling-and-complexity-drive-

lcd-yield-strategies.html

We can also see the falling cost of LCDs in the

falling price of LCD TVs, albeit some of the cost

reductions are coming from the falling costs of ICs

Outline

Cathode Ray Tube



3D LCD displays


Electronic Paper


Time-Sequential 3D with active 3D Glasses

(common in movies)

Sources for these

slides: Adapted

from published

paper in

Technology and

Society by Ng Pei

Sin and myself

Improvements in Frame-Rate are Occurring

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1970s 1995 2008 2010

CRT

LCD

OLED/Plasma

Increased frame-rate of content approaches Critical Flicker Fusion point (where higher frame rate has no perceived benefit) – 60Hz.

Increase frame rate gives smoother, flicker-free motion, especially in high-action videos

Increased Frame-rate of Display

Reaches 120Hz; surpasses critical flicker fusion point

Surplus enables implementation of Time-sequential 3D without compromising improved frame rate of content

Improved LCD frame-rate due to improvement in Liquid Crystal structure, reduced cell-gap, and improved methods to shorten liquid crystal response time

120Hz - Minimum screen frame-rate

for ‘flicker-free’ Time-sequential 3D

Fram

e p

er s

eco

nd

s (H

z)

Display Frame-Rate

Improvements in Frame Rate Increase the

Economic Feasibility of Time Sequential 3D

Improvement in Liquid Crystal

response time enable:

High frame-rate in LCD display and in

active 3D glasses

Economical

Estimated cost of adding 3D to LCD

display range from 10% to 30% the

cost of panel

Falling costs from larger substrate size

can offset these higher costs

But glasses are a big

disadvantage……….

Auto-Stereoscopic Displays Do

Not Require Special 3D Glasses

Panel pixels are divided into two groups

one for left-eye images

another for right-eye images

A filter element is used to focus each pixel into a viewing zone

In order to view television from different places in the room, multiple viewing zones are needed

Improvements in photolithographic equipment enable increases in

pixel density

lags resolution in ICs by many years

Sometimes called Kitahara’s Law, improvements of about 4 times

occur every 3 years

These increases in pixel density

Enable high definition television

But will exceed the resolution of our eyes

Thus, these increases can be used to assign different pixels

to right and left eye and

to different “viewing” zones

Increases in Pixel Density, i.e., Resolution

At least128 million pixels/sq inch are needed

8.3 million pixels needed for high-definition TV

at least eight viewing zones needed to accommodate

head movements

each viewing zone needs two sets of pixels

8.3 x 8 x 2 = 128

Best pixel density at Consumer Electronics Show

in 2011 was 8.3 million pixels/sq inch

If pixel density continues to increase four-times every

three years, technical feasibility in 2017

As for economic feasibility, this depends on incremental

cost of the higher densities. If the incremental cost is

small, they will probably become economically feasible

before 2020.

Auto-Stereoscopic Displays

But not much diffusion

Not enough content?

Not enough interest in 3D?

One question is whether such content can be easily

created

Standardization and digitalization ease handling, storing and presentation of 3D videos

Standardization reduces complexity and cost of having to produce 3D contents for multiple competing formats

Digital 3D formats build from MPEG-4 video compression with Multiview Video Coding (MVC) encoding

“Historical Progression of Media”, From: Three-Dimensional Television: Capture,

transmission, Display. By Haldun M. Ozaktas, Levent Onural

Other Factors Should Enable New Content:

Standardization and Digitization of Video

Other Factors Should Enable Better Content:

Better graphic processors

http://www.behardware.com/articles/659-1/nvidia-cuda-preview.html

“NVIDIA® TESLA® GPU COMPUTING”, Nvidia, 2010, http://www.nvidia.com/docs/IO/43395/tesla-brochure-12-lr.pdf

Improved Graphics processing unit (GPU) enables:

More MPEG4 video compression

Rendering of more realistic computer animation (more

polygon count and motion control points)

Rendering of 3D models for stereoscopic video for 3D

displays

Enable realistic stereoscopic computer animation

good enough for cinema screens presentation,

increasing contents in 3D

Outline



3D LCD displays


Electronic Paper


OLED displays

http://www.wsj.com/articles/lg-display-forges-

ahead-on-oled-tv-technology-1428701581

OLEDs have Some Advantages over LCDs

and their Sales are Growing

Made of organic (Carbon based) materials that emit light when electricity runs through them

Fewer layers make them thinner, potentially cheaper

Flexibility comes from organic materials and thinness

Multiple colors can be roll printed onto a substrate, making them potentially cheaper than that of LCDs

Scaling up roll-to roll printing will also reduce costs

Other Advantages of OLEDs:

Response Time, Viewing Angle, Grey Scale

Units AMOLED CCFL LED Edge LED Full Difference

Luminance cd/m2 None

Brightness cd/m2 Power

Contrast Ratio (CR) 1000:1 5000:1 6M:1 Dark Images

Ambient Contrast Ratio

@ 125 Lux ~1000:1 >2,000:1 >2,000:1 >2,000:1 High Lux

Black Levels cd/m2 <0.001 0.8 0.1 0.05 Dark Images

Viewing Angles CR 100% 3D

Response Time ms 0.001 5 3 3 Fast Moving

Gray Scale Performance

All Gray

ScalesMovies

Frame Rate Hz None

42" Power Consumption W 30 ~120 ~80 ~60 15

Lifetime hrs to 1/2

luminance

50K to

100K~60K ~70K ~70K Initial LCD

Differential Aging Yes Strength

Image Sticking Some Strength

Form Factor mm 2 5 3 5Thinner

>240

Poor Lower Gray Scales

Minor

None

TFT LCD

Same

OLED ~1.5X Brighter

20:1

Source: OLED Summit Preview, San Francisco, September 27-29 Barry Young, Young Market Research, February 18, 2013

Fewer Layers with OLEDs than with LCDs

LCD

Complex structure

Passes through light and thus requires separate light source and color filters

OLED

Simple structure

Makes its own light

Many of them are Flexible

What About a Wrist Display?

Can it conform to your wrist

using right materials?

Much better than a smart

watch

Flexibility Comes from New Materials (e.g.,

organic ones) and Thinner Ones

Moving to polymers requires low permeation rates, higher

transparencies, and low cost.

OLEDs Still Lag LEDs in Efficiency

Subsequent

improvements

have occurred

(see slides on

lighting)

• Average life span of 30,000 hours,

half of LCD TVs 60,000 hours

• a few molecules of oxygen or

moisture can kill display so need

better encapsulation (ink jet printing

of coating?)

• OLED displays are given blue tint

to offset faster degradation of blue

• Adding touch is also problem

because indium tin oxide is brittle

and will crack in touch display; can

carbon nano-tubes solve this

problem?

Source: http://www.differencebetween.info/node/707

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/529991/bendable-

displays-are-finally-headed-to-market/

Another Problem for OLEDs in TVs is Lifespan

Source: http://www.hdtvinfo.eu/news/hdtv-articles/oled-tv-

estimated-lifespan-shorter-then-expected.html (2008 data)

Another Problem is High Price/Cost, but falling

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

AS

P (

US

$)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Pri

ce P

rem

ium

32" 1080p CCFL 32" 1080 LED Edge 32" 1080 LED Back

32" OLED 1920 x 1080 OLED Premium vs. Edge OLED Premium vs. Back


Costs Fall as Substrate Sizes get Bigger

2007 730x9202011


New Techniques Required to Scale Process

Making finely patterned sub-pixels with small moleculematerial requires use of vacuum thermal evaporation using a fine metal mask

Size limits are defined the sagging of the mask

To achieve > 200 ppi, AMOLEDs utilize Pentiletechnology, which reduces pixel size from 3 sub-pixels to 2 sub-pixels/pixel. To scale beyond ½ 4th Gen, VTE must be changed from positioning the substrate horizontally to holding vertically as implemented by Tokki, Ulvac, Sunic and AMAT

New approaches include the use of CNT by Unidym and nanowires by Cambrios


Other Patterning Options Being Tried

Alternative approaches include:

Polymers and small molecule in solution which can be printed

Laser induced thermal imaging (LITI) as developed by 3M and SMD

Eliminating patterning by using white material with a color filter

The most likely for the Gen 5.5 is vertically held substrates

Beyond Gen 5.5 some form of printing will be required

Ink Jet – Panasonic, Epson

Slot – DuPont

Roll to roll process – VTT, Fraunhofer


Many Believe Roll-to Roll Printing will Lead to

Dramatically Lower Costs

Vacuum deposition of

metals, dielectrics, &

semiconductors

5μ

Multiple mask

levels imprinted

as single 3D

structure

Patterning completed

w/ wet & dry

processes

deposition imprint etch

deposit

spin resist

align/expose

develop

strip/clean

etch

deposit etchimprint

etch

mask

Conventional Photo-Lithography SAIL

http://www.hpl.hp.com/techreports/2011/HPL-2011-152.pdf

(Roll printing)

http://www.hpl.hp.com/techreports/2011/HPL-2011-152.pdf

A Roll of Rolled OLEDshttp://deviceguru.com/euro-project-slashes-flexible-display-costs/

Konica is constructing a flexible OLED lighting R2R fab with a

monthly capacity of 1 million panels. Production will start in fall

of 2014 http://www.oled-info.com/tags/technical-

research/frontplane/roll-roll

LG’s OLED TV Business

Claims it made big breakthrough in hi-volume production of large screen OLED TVs

Costs dropped from $25,000 USD in 2013 to $15,000 in July 2015 on 55” TVs

Planning on introducing transparent, foldable, and curved screens

Expects that within 5 years, 40% of world’s smartphones will have flexbile OLED displays

But not clear if profits will cover LG’s $3 Billion dollar investment in OLEDs

Plucky Contender, Economist, July 4, 2015, p. 56

Outline

Cathode Ray Tube



3D LCD displays


Electronic Paper


LCD

+ Full color

- Harder on the eyes

+ Can display video

(movies)

- Takes more power (battery

doesn’t last as long)

+ Backlit, so you can read in

the dark

- Hard to read outdoors or

in bright sunlight

Early e-Ink

- Black & white

+ Easy on the eyes; like

paper

- Can’t display full video

+ Takes very little power

(battery lasts longer)

- Can’t be read in the dark

(like a regular book)

+ Easy to read outdoors, the

more light the better

+ Very crisp and sharp

E-Ink has advantages for reading

That Become Obvious When You Look at this Picture

Improvements in E-ink Electrophoretic DisplaysColor is now available

E Ink

Vizplex 1

E Ink Vizplex

2

E Ink Pearl E Ink Triton E Ink

Spectra

E Ink

Carta

Announce

ment Year2006 2007 2010 2010 2013 2013

Cost $70 (estimated )

Based on Sory

prs 500: $350

$60 (Estimated )

Based on Sony

prs 505: $300

$30.5 (2011)

Sony prs T1:

$150

$26

Based on Sory

pr-t2: $130

Color/

Greyscale

4-level gray

scale

8 level gray

scale

16 levels of

gray

16 shades of

gray, 4096

colors

2-bit

(B/W/R)

Contrast 7:1 10:1 10:1 15:1 15:1

Refresh

Rate

• 1200ms

• 500ms for 1

bit mode

• 740ms for

grayscale

• 260 ms for 1-

bit mode

• 600 ms for

grayscale

• 120 ms for

1 bit mode

• 120ms -

980ms,

• 120 ms

Resolution •170 dpi 600

× 800

•170 dpi

• 600 × 800

•Up to 300

dpi 600x800

•200 dpi

•768x1024

•(212 ppi)

1024 x

758

•> 300 dpi

•768x102

4

And Costs of Color Displays are Falling

7” diagonal display has

0.15 cm2 area

$426 per m2, much less than LCD

Will this make Wall Displays Economically Feasible?

Another option for a

Smart Watch?

The CST-01, the

thinnest watch in the

world, is less than

1mm thick and

weighs less than 5

pennies.

Outline

Cathode Ray Tube



3D LCD displays


Electronic Paper


Holographic Systems

Present a real 3D image

LCD-based 3D systems present an “illusion” of three

dimensions

Time-Sequential 3D with active 3D Glasses

Auto-Stereoscopic Displays

Holographic Systems present a real 3D image and thus

one that can be more aesthetically appealing

Hologram in Star Wars

A Better Hologram in Total Recall

How About a Hologram for a Phone Key Pad?

If it is a Hologram?

A Little Different – But How about Projecting

a Display onto ones Hand?

This can be done with a Pico-Projector in a Samsung Phonehttp://www.engadget.com/2010/02/15/samsung-beam-halo-hands-on/

This was done in Total Recall

Back to Holograms……..

Source: MT5009 group in 2011

Looking at Light Source and Holographic Media in more Detail:

The Film/Media Records both the Reference and Object Beams

http://www.holostar.com/Frame1.html



When might such a system become technically and

economically feasible for some application and

some set of users?

Conclusions and Relevant Questions for Your

Projects (1)

New displays continue to emerge and experience

improvements

New materials that better exploit the relevant physical

phenomena (e.g., materials for OLEDs that have higher

luminosity per Watt or longer lifetime)

Falling costs from increases in the scale of substrates and

production equipment

Improvements in components for holographic displays

Improvements in frame rate and pixel density for 3D

displays

Conclusions and Relevant Questions for Your

Projects (2)

How many further improvements are likely to occur?

When will their costs become low enough or performance high enough to be economical for specific applications?

Can we identify those applications, the order in which they will become economical, and the specific needs of each application?

What about higher-level systems; can we identify ones that might become economically feasible due to improvements in displays and other “components”?

What kinds of analyses can help us answer these questions?