Upload
cropprotection
View
1.295
Download
2
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Citation preview
COPA * COGECAThe Outlook for EU agriculture
Brüssel, 29th June 2011
Session II
Market outlook for selected sectors, opportunities and constraints to
productivity and the Contribution of input suppliers
The Dairy sector
Dr. Stefan WeberLMS Landwirtschaftsberatung , Rostock-Germany
1
Currently a positive outlook on market for milk and dairy products
Enormus price volatalities at world markets
Land prices are rising, availability of land develops more restrictive
Heterogeneous structure of agricultural dairy farms
High production requirements results higher production costs
Dissatisfied dairy structure
Full decoupling of direct payments in Germany since 2005
Soft landing 2013to regional flat rate for farmers in 2013
Significant reductions of the provision of direct payments
Analysis of the milk market
2Dr. Stefan Weber
EU 27: Exports of Milk Products
Significantly higher sales of cheese and skimmed milk powder in 2010.
2010
in 1.000 to, January-December
2009
*einschließlich Butter öl
Butter* Käse VMP MMP KDM Molken-pulver
Kasein
Quelle: ZMB nach EurostatSeite 3Dr. Stefan Weber
Increase in purchasing power and demand for milk-products in emerging economies
8,7%
7,7%
4,7%5,3 %
4,3%
4,0%
1,4%
3,0%
4,0%
2,8%
• Crowing purchasing power inemerging economies
• Diffusion of western consumer behaviour
• Increase of demand and supply for milk products outside Europe
• Standard export products are competitive on world market
• Increase in demand by global retailers
Market situation / development Percentage change in GDP (2011)
Quelle: World Bank, DMKSeite 4Dr. Stefan Weber
Development in global Milk-Production towards 2019
• Worldwide growth Ø 2,1 % (Argentine, Brasil, China and India)
• Slow growth in the EU(Forecatss by OECD-FAO, FAPRI, EU)
• Shift in Milk Production towards Northern Europe (NL, DK, PL, D-North)
• Growth in Germany affects typical grasland regions (on the fringe of the Alps, coast-regions)
• End of Quota in 2015
Market- situation / -development
GUS, Ozeanien, Asien, Rest
Nordamerika
EU
Development of Production of Raw Materialsin Mio. kg
2019
+165,3 Mrd kg
2009 -2019
Quelle: OECD, FAO, DMKSeite 5Dr. Stefan Weber
World Population 2004: 6,4 Mrd. World Population 2050: 9,3 Mrd.
Distribution of world population on the continents
The population growth is taking place at 95 % in developing countries.
Asien AsienAfrika
Afrika
EUEU
Quelle: Deutsche Stiftung WeltbevölkerungSeite 7Dr. Stefan Weber
Population development in Germany until 2050
Germany's population will shrink further and grow old in 2050. According to recent calculations by the Federal Statistical Office, there will then be about twice as many 60-year-old as newborns.
85
80
75
70
65
60
Population in Mio.
Quelle: Grundlage: Variante 6 - W1: "relativ alte" Bevölkerung; Geburtenhäufigkeit: leicht fallend, Lebenserwartung: hoch, Wanderungssaldo: 100 000Basis: 31.12.2005; Quelle: Destatis 2006
Seite 9Dr. Stefan Weber
State of Play of the german agricultural sector? Shares of the EU-27 agricultural production 2008-2009 (in%)
Quellen: AMI10Dr. Stefan Weber
Cost of milk production in comparison to the european average, ct/kg ECM
Quelle: EDF
IRE 31,58 FR 0,02 DE-O 1,47 DK 6,31
DE-O 32,01 GB 0,13 FR 2,21 DE-O 6,58
GB 32,49 IRE 1,01 DE-W 2,29 IRE 6,86
DE-W 37,91 DE-O 1,44 IT 2,35 GB 7,62
DK 40,69 IT 2,71 GB 3,01 DE-W 7,82
FR 43,14 DK 2,72 IRE 3,93 NL 7,84
NL 45,31 DE-W 3,42 NL 4,27 IT 10,55
IT 49,83 NL 9,41 DK 5,63 FR 11,47
Vollkosten Quotenkosten Bodenkosten Arbeitserledigung
Dr. Stefan Weber
11
Dr. Stefan Weber
12
Milk production in
kg/ha LF:kg je ha LF *)
< 500501 – 1.000
1.001 – 1.5001.501 – 2.0002.001 – 3.000
> 3.000
*) Für Rheinland-Pfalz, Baden-Württemberg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Sachsen und Thüringen liegen keine Milchleistungsdaten auf Kreisebene vor. Berechnung: Milchkuh (Kreis) * Ø Milchleistung (Bundesland) / ha LF (Kreis)
Quelle: Lassen et al. 2008 vTi.
Dr. Stefan Weber
13
Germany as a location for milk– by Region
Quelle: Situationsbericht BV, BZA DLG Forum Spitzenbetriebe
Kennwert Einheit Süd West Nord Ost
Anz. Betriebe mit Milchproduktion *Tsd. 63,5 16,9 20,7 4,4
in % 36,2 17,9 30,4 15,9
Anzahl Milchkühe *Tsd. 1.592 655 1.042 777
in % 39 15 25 18
Milchleistung kg / Kuh 6.939 7.918 8.408 8.675
Laufstallhaltung % 40 60 80 98
Kühe / Betrieb Anz. Tiere 26 40 52 182
VE / 100 ha LF Anz. VE 126 111 171 35
Ant. Betriebe mit > 100 Kühe % 0,5 5,0 7,9 50,8
Ant. Kühe in Betrieben mit > 100 Kühe % 2,5 16,3 20,1 89,4
Produktionskosten (incl.Faktorkosten) ct/kg ECM 40,57 36,50 33,56 31,90
The changing conditions costs agricultural diversity
Milk production is well established, competitive enterprises with heterogeneous structures
High demands on production require higher costs
Existing of (sometimes high) premiums depending in many areas
Decrease of Direct Payments, but coupled to conditions and environmental standards
Higher competition for land
Skills shortages and generational change will be increasingly difficult
Optimisation of nutrient cycling
Outlock for the milk market I.!
14Dr. Stefan Weber
Germany is and remains as a very interesting and financially strong market
Dairy structure situated unsatisfactory,
=> Targeting higher market share in domestic market and growth in exports
A Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) with equal standards
Greater acceptance of agriculture as a whole and a higher appreciation for food
Outlock for the milk market II. !
15Dr. Stefan Weber
16Dr. Stefan Weber