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Simon Henry, Chief Financial Officer at Royal Dutch Shell, presented an overview of the Shell group strategy at the Premium Conference of Société Générale in Paris on 3 December 2010.
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ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
1 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
PREMIUM REVIEW CONFERENCESOCIÉTE GÉNÉRALE – PARISDECEMBER 3, 2010
SIMON HENRYCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
DEFINITIONS AND CAUTIONARY NOTE
Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves for all 2009 data, and includes both SEC proved oil and gas reserves and SEC proven mining reserves for 2007 and 2008 data. Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves or SEC proven mining reserves. Resources are consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2P and 2C definitions.Organic: Our use of the term Organic includes SEC proved oil and gas reserves and SEC proven mining reserves (for 2007 and 2008) excluding changes resulting from acquisitions, divestments and year-end pricing impact.
To facilitate a better understanding of underlying business performance, the financial results are also presented on an estimated current cost of supplies (CCS) basis as applied for the Oil Products and Chemicals segment earnings. Earnings on an estimated current cost of supplies basis provides useful information concerning the effect of changes in the cost of supplies on Royal Dutch Shell’s results of operations and is a measure to manage the performance of the Oil Products and Chemicals segments but is not a measure of financial performance under IFRS.
The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this presentation refer to companies in which Royal Dutch Shell either directly or indirectly has control, by having either a majority of the voting rights or the right to exercise a controlling influence. The companies in which Shell has significant influence but not control are referred to as “associated companies” or “associates” and companies in which Shell has joint control are referred to as “jointly controlled entities”. In this presentation, associates and jointly controlled entities are also referred to as “equity-accounted investments”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect (for example, through our 24% shareholding in Woodside Petroleum Ltd.) ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest.
2 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for the Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserve estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including potential litigation and regulatory measures as a result of climate changes; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended 31 December, 2009 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, 3 December 2010. Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. There can be no assurance that dividend payments will match or exceed those set out in this presentation in the future, or that they will be made at all.
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation that SEC's guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov. You can also obtain these forms from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330.
PRIORITIESEARNINGS
$ Bln
15
20
25
30
35
PROFITABLE GROWTH
COMPETITIVE PERFORMANCE
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE AND PRIORITIES
3 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
CURRENT COST OF SUPPLY REPORTED EARNINGS
UPSTREAM
DOWNSTREAM
CORPORATE
DIVESTMENTS/OTHER
-5
0
5
10
15
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Q3 YtD '10
SHARPER DELIVERY
HSSE & SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT PRIORITY
STRENGTHENING DELIVERY & ACCOUNTABILITY
Injuries - TRCF per million working hours
FOCUS ON SAFETY: GOAL ZERO
1
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09Employees and contractors per million working hours; Shell operated facilities
Projectprofitability
SafetyEnvironment Technology
4 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
Employees and contractors per million working hours; Shell operated facilities
Operational Spills – thousand tonnes
0
2
4
6
8
10
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
PARTNERSHIPS
Data 100% basis for companies and joint ventures where we are the operator
Social
OPERATIONAL SPILLS
STRATEGY TIMELINE
NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION
MATURING NEXT GENERATION PROJECT OPTIONS
5 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION GROWTH
PERFORMANCE FOCUS
2009 2012 2015+
Gearing %
PRUDENT BALANCE SHEET
GROWTH INVESTMENT
20%
30%� 2009-12 cashflow from operations
+50% at $60 bbl scenario+80% at $80 bbl scenario
� Reduced costs + growth
� Surplus cashflow 2012 > $60 bbl
Gearing range
6 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
0%
10%
Q205 Q206 Q207 Q208 Q209 Q310
� Surplus cashflow 2012 > $60 bbl after dividends
2012 ASSUMES NORMALIZED DOWNSTREAM AND NATURAL GAS ENVIRONMENT
PERFORMANCE FOCUS
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
7 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
20
30
40
CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT
STANDARDIZATION
4
6
8
10
EXAMPLE: OFFSHORING TO LOW COST SHARED SERVICE CENTERS
$7-8 BILLION DIVESTMENTS 2010-11
DIVESTMENT PROCEEDS
$ BLN‘000s STAFF
DOWNSTREAM
UPSTREAM
CORPORATE
CAPITAL EFFICIENCY
8 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
0
10
05 06 07 08 09 10-11E
0
2
4
2008 2009 2010ECUMULATIVE
Simpler structures & standardizationCapital Efficiency
Commercial mind-set
US retail
East Resources Shell Haven
ACQUISITIONS AND DIVESTMENTS
LPG business worldwide
Finland & Sweden
����
����SyriaGreece
���� ����
Eagle Ford
El Salvador����
Statfjord
Heide Refinery����
2010 PROGRESS
����
����
����
GoM leases����
9 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
Divestment
Acquisition
Nigeria Arrow
New Zealand
21 countriesAfrica
����Deal Complete
����
El Salvador����
Cosan ����
����
Chile
����
Woodside����
NORTHA AMERICA TIGHT GASDRILLING RIG
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
DOWNSTREAM PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
ONGOING REFINING PORTFOLIO REDUCTION
Shell refining capacity – Kbbl/d2002-09-18%
2009-12-15%
RETAIL: SIMPLIFICATION & MAINTAINING EARNINGS
Example: Retail
25%
50%
75%
100%
10 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
0
1,000
2002 2006 2009 2012
EUROPE & AFRICA ASIA PACIFICAMERICAS
Reducing refining capacityInvesting in scale and higher refinery complexity
Value driven disposals strategy
DIRECT & INDIRECT MARKETS EXITS
0%
25%
% Markets % Earnings
GROWTH DELIVERY
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
11 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
RESOURCE BASE KEY POST-FID PROJECTS
NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION GROWTH
Kashagan Ph 1
Qatargas 4
Sakhalin II
Pearl GTL
Perdido
Corrib
Gjoa
Schoonebeek
AOSP-1
NA Tight gas
Caesar Tonga
Iraq SAS
����
���� Singapore Chemicals ��������
Port Arthur
����
30
DESIGN
CONCEPT SELECTION
Longer-term upside
����
����
12 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
Gumusut
Pluto(Woodside)
BC-10
GbaranUbie Ph 1
HarweelQarn Alam
Perdido
GorgonT1-3
Tonga
Amal Steam North Rankin B
OIL & GAS
INTEGRATED GAS
2009
2012+2010-11
START-UP DATE
BongaNW
����
����
���� ON STREAM
DOWNSTREAM
Singapore Chemicals ��������
ON STREAM
0
10
20
ON STREAM
• ~11 billion Boe resources
• 12 Upstream start-ups 2010-11
• 5 already on stream
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
START-UP OF OIL SANDS EXPANSION
AOSP PHASE 1 EXPANSION
JACKPINE MINE ON STREAM H2 2010UPGRADER EXPANSION 2011
AOSP net cash flows - $ Bln (Shell) Kbbl/d
-2.5
0
2.5
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
-0.3
0.0
0.3
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Base project start up
Expansion 1start up
PRODUCTION AND PROFITABILITY
200
100
-1
1
2
-2
0
13 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
FORECAST AT $ 70/BBL OIL PRICE
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 20142000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
CAPITAL INVESTMENTCASH FROM OPERATIONSPRODUCTION (RHS)
AOSP-1 mine expansion on streamUpgrader expansion start-up 2011
~250,000 b/d capacity built in ~10 yearsNext focus: Optimization + debottlenecking
QATAR: NEW HEARTLAND FOR SHELL
SHELL POSITIONS IN QATAR
RAS LAFFAN
• Pearl GTL + Qatargas 4 LNG• ~3 bcf/d offshore gas development• Significant onshore infrastructure
• GTL• LNG• NGLs/Ethane
QatarGas 3/4
Pearl GTL
PRODUCTION & PROFITABILITY
PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION
14 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
GTL LNG LIQUEFACTION
PEARL
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
-6
-3
0
3
6
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Shell Qatar cash flow (Pearl + Qatargas 4) - $ Bln Production – Kboe/d
PRODUCTION & PROFITABILITY
CASH FLOW
PRODUCTION (RHS)
$ 70/bbl oil price
PROFITABLE GROWTH
OIL & GAS PRODUCTION GROWTH
Kboe/d
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2009 2010 2012 2014
15 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
OIL & GASENTITLEMENT:
2009 2010 2012 2014
ENTITLEMENT SHOWN AT $70/BBL
ADD A SECOND COLOUR: 2010+ START-UPS, WHI CH IS DEFINED AS THE 2010-11 + 2012-13 + 2014+ BARS FROM SLIDE 24 MARCH
ADDING TO UPSTREAM UNIT CASH FLOWS
$/Boe
$60/BBL
$80/BBL
0
20
40
2009 2012 2009+ start ups: 2012 impact
Courtesy of Qatargas
MATURING NEXT GENERATION PROJECT OPTIONS
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
16 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
30
OIL & GAS RESOURCES DEVELOPMENTS PLANS 2010-11
MATURING NEW PROJECTS
AppomatoxMars-B
VitoStones
BC-10 Ph. 2
GbaranUbie Ph. 2
Bonga
Clair Ph. 2
Tempa Rossa
Majnoon Full Field Development
Amin WaterfloodChampion Waterflood
Sabah Gas KBB Malikai
CMOC
Rabab/ Harweel
Billion Boe
Longer-term upside
� > 8 billion Boe resources
CardamonDeep
North America Tight Gas
CONCEPT SELECTION
17 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
0
10
20
FID TARGET
FEED TARGET
BC-10 Ph. 2
BS-4
BongaNorth
Sabah Gas KBB
Arrow CBM to LNG
Sunrise
Prelude
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
ON STREAM
� > 35 new projectsDESIGN
SELECTION
Resources end 2009
Browse
MARS-B + WEST BOREAS & SOUTH DEIMOS TIE BACK
Boreas exploration well
South Deimos
~2 Km
~5 Km
Mars B
Mars A
SUB-SEA TIE BACKS….. ….. TO MARS-B TLP DEVELOPMENT
18 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
Subsea Production System
� 6 wells 15kpsi subsea tie-back to Mars B host
� Discovery wells both reused for production
� Flexibility to connect future subsea developments
West BoreasDrill Centre
South DeimosExploration well
Olympus TLP
� 24 Slot TLP with West Boreas /South Deimos; ~100 kboe/d; Shell 72%
� Capability to drill to >9,100 meters managed depth
� Future provision for Water Injection/Gas Lift
SHELL GLOBAL LNG CAPACITY GROWTH
AUSTRALIA UNDERPINS NEXT TRANCHE OF SHELL LNG GROWTH
Greater Sunrise
Browse
Prelude
Curtis Island
19 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
North West Shelf
Gorgon
Pluto (Woodside)
NEW HUB EXISTING PRODUCTION HUB
2009 Shell world-wide capacity: 18.5 mtpa2015 capacity ~25 mtpa (40% growth)
SHELL FLOATING LNG
TIGHT GAS: COMPETITIVE POSITION
NORTH AMERICA TIGHT GAS POSITIONS
� ~40 Tcfe of potential resource
� Acreage growth (+ 1.3 million net acres in 2010)
� Resource growth: East Resources Inc. + Eagle Ford acquisition 2010
� High value positions: exploration running room, low break-even prices
Haynesville JV
Pinedale
Groundbirch
South Texas
Eagle Ford
Marcellus
Deep Basin
Foothills
20 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 H1 2015+
Mature Emerging
PRODUCTION GROWTH POTENTIAL
room, low break-even pricesSouth Texas
SOURCE: 2009 PUBLIC REGULATORY PUBLICATIONS
0
1
2
Petrohawk Ultra Shell EnCana EOG XTO Chesapeake Talisman
Other Direct Operating Cost
COMPETITIVE LIFTING COSTS
Lifting costs $/mcfe
Other costs: non-income taxes, transportation and handlings costs and general & administrative expenses
Kboe/d Bcf/d
30
UPSTREAM: INVESTING FOR GROWTH + PROFITABILITY
DESIGN
CONCEPT SELECTION
Longer-term upside
> 8 billion Boe~ 35 new projectsGrowth potential to 2020
Investment decisions driven by�Portfolio fit
�Affordability
�Profitability
21 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
0
10
20
2009
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
ON STREAM
~9 billion Boe3.1 mboe/d18.5 mtpa LNG capacity~25 countries
~11 billion Boe2009-12 production +11%2009-15 LNG capacity +40%
Prelude - Australia
SUMMARY
• Upstream growth potential to ~2020• 8 billion Boe resources; 35 new projects• Financial growth in focus
MATURING NEXT GENERATION OF PROJECT OPTIONS
• 2009-12:NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION
22 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
Competitive performance – Profitable growth – Sharper delivery
• Oil & gas growth +11%; • Cashflow growth: +50-80%
NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION GROWTH
• Continuous improvement + capital efficiency• $7-8 billion asset sales 2010-11• Downstream restructuring
PERFORMANCE FOCUS
Q&A
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
23 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010