23
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC 1 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010 PREMIUM REVIEW CONFERENCE SOCIÉTE GÉNÉRALE – PARIS DECEMBER 3, 2010 SIMON HENRY CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER

Simon Henry - Société Générale in Paris - 3 December 2010

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

Simon Henry, Chief Financial Officer at Royal Dutch Shell, presented an overview of the Shell group strategy at the Premium Conference of Société Générale in Paris on 3 December 2010.

Citation preview

Page 1: Simon Henry - Société Générale in Paris - 3 December 2010

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC

1 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010

PREMIUM REVIEW CONFERENCESOCIÉTE GÉNÉRALE – PARISDECEMBER 3, 2010

SIMON HENRYCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER

Page 2: Simon Henry - Société Générale in Paris - 3 December 2010

DEFINITIONS AND CAUTIONARY NOTE

Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves for all 2009 data, and includes both SEC proved oil and gas reserves and SEC proven mining reserves for 2007 and 2008 data. Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves or SEC proven mining reserves. Resources are consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2P and 2C definitions.Organic: Our use of the term Organic includes SEC proved oil and gas reserves and SEC proven mining reserves (for 2007 and 2008) excluding changes resulting from acquisitions, divestments and year-end pricing impact.

To facilitate a better understanding of underlying business performance, the financial results are also presented on an estimated current cost of supplies (CCS) basis as applied for the Oil Products and Chemicals segment earnings. Earnings on an estimated current cost of supplies basis provides useful information concerning the effect of changes in the cost of supplies on Royal Dutch Shell’s results of operations and is a measure to manage the performance of the Oil Products and Chemicals segments but is not a measure of financial performance under IFRS.

The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this presentation refer to companies in which Royal Dutch Shell either directly or indirectly has control, by having either a majority of the voting rights or the right to exercise a controlling influence. The companies in which Shell has significant influence but not control are referred to as “associated companies” or “associates” and companies in which Shell has joint control are referred to as “jointly controlled entities”. In this presentation, associates and jointly controlled entities are also referred to as “equity-accounted investments”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect (for example, through our 24% shareholding in Woodside Petroleum Ltd.) ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest.

2 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010

This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for the Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserve estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including potential litigation and regulatory measures as a result of climate changes; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended 31 December, 2009 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, 3 December 2010. Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. There can be no assurance that dividend payments will match or exceed those set out in this presentation in the future, or that they will be made at all.

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation that SEC's guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov. You can also obtain these forms from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330.

Page 3: Simon Henry - Société Générale in Paris - 3 December 2010

PRIORITIESEARNINGS

$ Bln

15

20

25

30

35

PROFITABLE GROWTH

COMPETITIVE PERFORMANCE

FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE AND PRIORITIES

3 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010

CURRENT COST OF SUPPLY REPORTED EARNINGS

UPSTREAM

DOWNSTREAM

CORPORATE

DIVESTMENTS/OTHER

-5

0

5

10

15

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Q3 YtD '10

SHARPER DELIVERY

Page 4: Simon Henry - Société Générale in Paris - 3 December 2010

HSSE & SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT PRIORITY

STRENGTHENING DELIVERY & ACCOUNTABILITY

Injuries - TRCF per million working hours

FOCUS ON SAFETY: GOAL ZERO

1

'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09Employees and contractors per million working hours; Shell operated facilities

Projectprofitability

SafetyEnvironment Technology

4 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010

Employees and contractors per million working hours; Shell operated facilities

Operational Spills – thousand tonnes

0

2

4

6

8

10

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09

PARTNERSHIPS

Data 100% basis for companies and joint ventures where we are the operator

Social

OPERATIONAL SPILLS

Page 5: Simon Henry - Société Générale in Paris - 3 December 2010

STRATEGY TIMELINE

NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION

MATURING NEXT GENERATION PROJECT OPTIONS

5 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010

NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION GROWTH

PERFORMANCE FOCUS

2009 2012 2015+

Page 6: Simon Henry - Société Générale in Paris - 3 December 2010

Gearing %

PRUDENT BALANCE SHEET

GROWTH INVESTMENT

20%

30%� 2009-12 cashflow from operations

+50% at $60 bbl scenario+80% at $80 bbl scenario

� Reduced costs + growth

� Surplus cashflow 2012 > $60 bbl

Gearing range

6 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010

0%

10%

Q205 Q206 Q207 Q208 Q209 Q310

� Surplus cashflow 2012 > $60 bbl after dividends

2012 ASSUMES NORMALIZED DOWNSTREAM AND NATURAL GAS ENVIRONMENT

Page 7: Simon Henry - Société Générale in Paris - 3 December 2010

PERFORMANCE FOCUS

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC

7 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010

Page 8: Simon Henry - Société Générale in Paris - 3 December 2010

20

30

40

CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT

STANDARDIZATION

4

6

8

10

EXAMPLE: OFFSHORING TO LOW COST SHARED SERVICE CENTERS

$7-8 BILLION DIVESTMENTS 2010-11

DIVESTMENT PROCEEDS

$ BLN‘000s STAFF

DOWNSTREAM

UPSTREAM

CORPORATE

CAPITAL EFFICIENCY

8 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010

0

10

05 06 07 08 09 10-11E

0

2

4

2008 2009 2010ECUMULATIVE

Simpler structures & standardizationCapital Efficiency

Commercial mind-set

Page 9: Simon Henry - Société Générale in Paris - 3 December 2010

US retail

East Resources Shell Haven

ACQUISITIONS AND DIVESTMENTS

LPG business worldwide

Finland & Sweden

����

����SyriaGreece

���� ����

Eagle Ford

El Salvador����

Statfjord

Heide Refinery����

2010 PROGRESS

����

����

����

GoM leases����

9 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010

Divestment

Acquisition

Nigeria Arrow

New Zealand

21 countriesAfrica

����Deal Complete

����

El Salvador����

Cosan ����

����

Chile

����

Woodside����

NORTHA AMERICA TIGHT GASDRILLING RIG

Page 10: Simon Henry - Société Générale in Paris - 3 December 2010

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

DOWNSTREAM PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

ONGOING REFINING PORTFOLIO REDUCTION

Shell refining capacity – Kbbl/d2002-09-18%

2009-12-15%

RETAIL: SIMPLIFICATION & MAINTAINING EARNINGS

Example: Retail

25%

50%

75%

100%

10 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010

0

1,000

2002 2006 2009 2012

EUROPE & AFRICA ASIA PACIFICAMERICAS

Reducing refining capacityInvesting in scale and higher refinery complexity

Value driven disposals strategy

DIRECT & INDIRECT MARKETS EXITS

0%

25%

% Markets % Earnings

Page 11: Simon Henry - Société Générale in Paris - 3 December 2010

GROWTH DELIVERY

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC

11 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010

Page 12: Simon Henry - Société Générale in Paris - 3 December 2010

RESOURCE BASE KEY POST-FID PROJECTS

NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION GROWTH

Kashagan Ph 1

Qatargas 4

Sakhalin II

Pearl GTL

Perdido

Corrib

Gjoa

Schoonebeek

AOSP-1

NA Tight gas

Caesar Tonga

Iraq SAS

����

���� Singapore Chemicals ��������

Port Arthur

����

30

DESIGN

CONCEPT SELECTION

Longer-term upside

����

����

12 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010

Gumusut

Pluto(Woodside)

BC-10

GbaranUbie Ph 1

HarweelQarn Alam

Perdido

GorgonT1-3

Tonga

Amal Steam North Rankin B

OIL & GAS

INTEGRATED GAS

2009

2012+2010-11

START-UP DATE

BongaNW

����

����

���� ON STREAM

DOWNSTREAM

Singapore Chemicals ��������

ON STREAM

0

10

20

ON STREAM

• ~11 billion Boe resources

• 12 Upstream start-ups 2010-11

• 5 already on stream

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

Page 13: Simon Henry - Société Générale in Paris - 3 December 2010

START-UP OF OIL SANDS EXPANSION

AOSP PHASE 1 EXPANSION

JACKPINE MINE ON STREAM H2 2010UPGRADER EXPANSION 2011

AOSP net cash flows - $ Bln (Shell) Kbbl/d

-2.5

0

2.5

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

-0.3

0.0

0.3

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Base project start up

Expansion 1start up

PRODUCTION AND PROFITABILITY

200

100

-1

1

2

-2

0

13 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010

FORECAST AT $ 70/BBL OIL PRICE

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 20142000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

CAPITAL INVESTMENTCASH FROM OPERATIONSPRODUCTION (RHS)

AOSP-1 mine expansion on streamUpgrader expansion start-up 2011

~250,000 b/d capacity built in ~10 yearsNext focus: Optimization + debottlenecking

Page 14: Simon Henry - Société Générale in Paris - 3 December 2010

QATAR: NEW HEARTLAND FOR SHELL

SHELL POSITIONS IN QATAR

RAS LAFFAN

• Pearl GTL + Qatargas 4 LNG• ~3 bcf/d offshore gas development• Significant onshore infrastructure

• GTL• LNG• NGLs/Ethane

QatarGas 3/4

Pearl GTL

PRODUCTION & PROFITABILITY

PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION

14 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010

GTL LNG LIQUEFACTION

PEARL

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

-6

-3

0

3

6

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Shell Qatar cash flow (Pearl + Qatargas 4) - $ Bln Production – Kboe/d

PRODUCTION & PROFITABILITY

CASH FLOW

PRODUCTION (RHS)

$ 70/bbl oil price

Page 15: Simon Henry - Société Générale in Paris - 3 December 2010

PROFITABLE GROWTH

OIL & GAS PRODUCTION GROWTH

Kboe/d

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

2009 2010 2012 2014

15 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010

OIL & GASENTITLEMENT:

2009 2010 2012 2014

ENTITLEMENT SHOWN AT $70/BBL

ADD A SECOND COLOUR: 2010+ START-UPS, WHI CH IS DEFINED AS THE 2010-11 + 2012-13 + 2014+ BARS FROM SLIDE 24 MARCH

ADDING TO UPSTREAM UNIT CASH FLOWS

$/Boe

$60/BBL

$80/BBL

0

20

40

2009 2012 2009+ start ups: 2012 impact

Courtesy of Qatargas

Page 16: Simon Henry - Société Générale in Paris - 3 December 2010

MATURING NEXT GENERATION PROJECT OPTIONS

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC

16 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010

Page 17: Simon Henry - Société Générale in Paris - 3 December 2010

30

OIL & GAS RESOURCES DEVELOPMENTS PLANS 2010-11

MATURING NEW PROJECTS

AppomatoxMars-B

VitoStones

BC-10 Ph. 2

GbaranUbie Ph. 2

Bonga

Clair Ph. 2

Tempa Rossa

Majnoon Full Field Development

Amin WaterfloodChampion Waterflood

Sabah Gas KBB Malikai

CMOC

Rabab/ Harweel

Billion Boe

Longer-term upside

� > 8 billion Boe resources

CardamonDeep

North America Tight Gas

CONCEPT SELECTION

17 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010

0

10

20

FID TARGET

FEED TARGET

BC-10 Ph. 2

BS-4

BongaNorth

Sabah Gas KBB

Arrow CBM to LNG

Sunrise

Prelude

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

ON STREAM

� > 35 new projectsDESIGN

SELECTION

Resources end 2009

Browse

Page 18: Simon Henry - Société Générale in Paris - 3 December 2010

MARS-B + WEST BOREAS & SOUTH DEIMOS TIE BACK

Boreas exploration well

South Deimos

~2 Km

~5 Km

Mars B

Mars A

SUB-SEA TIE BACKS….. ….. TO MARS-B TLP DEVELOPMENT

18 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010

Subsea Production System

� 6 wells 15kpsi subsea tie-back to Mars B host

� Discovery wells both reused for production

� Flexibility to connect future subsea developments

West BoreasDrill Centre

South DeimosExploration well

Olympus TLP

� 24 Slot TLP with West Boreas /South Deimos; ~100 kboe/d; Shell 72%

� Capability to drill to >9,100 meters managed depth

� Future provision for Water Injection/Gas Lift

Page 19: Simon Henry - Société Générale in Paris - 3 December 2010

SHELL GLOBAL LNG CAPACITY GROWTH

AUSTRALIA UNDERPINS NEXT TRANCHE OF SHELL LNG GROWTH

Greater Sunrise

Browse

Prelude

Curtis Island

19 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010

North West Shelf

Gorgon

Pluto (Woodside)

NEW HUB EXISTING PRODUCTION HUB

2009 Shell world-wide capacity: 18.5 mtpa2015 capacity ~25 mtpa (40% growth)

SHELL FLOATING LNG

Page 20: Simon Henry - Société Générale in Paris - 3 December 2010

TIGHT GAS: COMPETITIVE POSITION

NORTH AMERICA TIGHT GAS POSITIONS

� ~40 Tcfe of potential resource

� Acreage growth (+ 1.3 million net acres in 2010)

� Resource growth: East Resources Inc. + Eagle Ford acquisition 2010

� High value positions: exploration running room, low break-even prices

Haynesville JV

Pinedale

Groundbirch

South Texas

Eagle Ford

Marcellus

Deep Basin

Foothills

20 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 H1 2015+

Mature Emerging

PRODUCTION GROWTH POTENTIAL

room, low break-even pricesSouth Texas

SOURCE: 2009 PUBLIC REGULATORY PUBLICATIONS

0

1

2

Petrohawk Ultra Shell EnCana EOG XTO Chesapeake Talisman

Other Direct Operating Cost

COMPETITIVE LIFTING COSTS

Lifting costs $/mcfe

Other costs: non-income taxes, transportation and handlings costs and general & administrative expenses

Kboe/d Bcf/d

Page 21: Simon Henry - Société Générale in Paris - 3 December 2010

30

UPSTREAM: INVESTING FOR GROWTH + PROFITABILITY

DESIGN

CONCEPT SELECTION

Longer-term upside

> 8 billion Boe~ 35 new projectsGrowth potential to 2020

Investment decisions driven by�Portfolio fit

�Affordability

�Profitability

21 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010

0

10

20

2009

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

ON STREAM

~9 billion Boe3.1 mboe/d18.5 mtpa LNG capacity~25 countries

~11 billion Boe2009-12 production +11%2009-15 LNG capacity +40%

Prelude - Australia

Page 22: Simon Henry - Société Générale in Paris - 3 December 2010

SUMMARY

• Upstream growth potential to ~2020• 8 billion Boe resources; 35 new projects• Financial growth in focus

MATURING NEXT GENERATION OF PROJECT OPTIONS

• 2009-12:NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION

22 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010

Competitive performance – Profitable growth – Sharper delivery

• Oil & gas growth +11%; • Cashflow growth: +50-80%

NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION GROWTH

• Continuous improvement + capital efficiency• $7-8 billion asset sales 2010-11• Downstream restructuring

PERFORMANCE FOCUS

Page 23: Simon Henry - Société Générale in Paris - 3 December 2010

Q&A

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC

23 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010