San Mateo County Real Estate Price Report

MarketWATCHA summary of market activity forsingle family home sales in San Mateo County

©Copyright 2009 Raymond Stoklosa • The RayChel Realty Group • (650) 655-2500

San Mateo County Real Estate Price Report —October 2009

The RayChel Realty Group ♦ San Mateo, CA ♦ (650) 655-2500 ♦ LivingWellinSanMateo.com ♦ DRE 00657178

Table of Contents

Introduction ....................................................................................... 2

About this Report ...................................................................... 2

San Mateo County .............................................................................. 3

How’s the Market? .................................................................... 3

Data ........................................................................................... 5

San Mateo .......................................................................................... 8

How’s the Market? .................................................................... 8

Data ......................................................................................... 10

Belmont ........................................................................................... 13

How’s the Market? .................................................................. 13

Data ......................................................................................... 14

Foster City ........................................................................................ 17

How’s the Market? .................................................................. 17

Data ......................................................................................... 19

San Carlos ........................................................................................ 22

How’s the Market? .................................................................. 22

Data ......................................................................................... 24

Redwood City ................................................................................... 27

How’s the Market? .................................................................. 27

Data ......................................................................................... 29



Introduction

The RayChel Realty Group is proud to present the October 2009 edition of our San Mateo

County Real Estate Price Report, based on data from MLS Listings, Inc. published on a monthly

basis.

About The San Mateo County Real Estate Price Report:

The San Mateo County Real Estate Price Report analyzes median price, number of homes sold,

average days homes were on the market before accepting an offer, months supply of

inventory, new listings vs. pending sales, and total sales volume. This report looks at San

Mateo County as a whole and drills down to five San Mateo County cities: San Mateo,

Belmont, Foster City, San Carlos and Redwood City.

The San Mateo County Real Estate Price Report takes the extra step to calculate meaningful

statistics to help San Mateo County home buyers and sellers understand what is really going

on in the San Mateo County real estate market. For example, we calculate the percentage of

list price seller’s received compared to Original List Price, not the list price at the time the

seller accepted an offer. This allows us to measure how realistic San Mateo County sellers are

when pricing their homes in today’s market.

The San Mateo County Real Estate Price report also breaks down the number of homes sold

by bedroom count and whether they sold for at, under or above their original list price in more

than or less than 30 days. This differentiation helps us recognize the relative strenght or

weakness in various market segments and price levels.



San Mateo County

The San Mateo County single family home resale

market continues to be the bright and shiny spot

of the national housing market. The median

price of a single family home nudged up a bit in

October 2009 to $702,000 indicating the county’s

continued resurgence off its low in

January. Newly initiated sales (also known as

pending sales) outpace new listings in October by

209 units.

Total sales volume of $371.8+ million on 396

single family homes sold as compared to 376 (20

fewer) single family homes sold in June, 2008, for

a total volume of $434.2 million. That means 20

more units sold for $62.4 million dollar less volume

in October, 2009, compared to June, 2009. This

reflects the high level of activity in San Mateo

County’s entry level market matching reports of

multiple offers and overbidding particularly in the

bank owned (REO) segment of the San Mateo

County single family home inventory. Meaning,

the low end homes are selling in a greater

proportion than the higher priced homes.

Days on Market are probably the best indicator of

San Mateo County's real estate activity level. As DOM lengthens, activity stalls and as DOM

shorten, activity increases. Considering the closed sales, it took sellers 81 days to secure a

buyer under contract as compared to 60

days for the pending sales that have not yet

closed escrow. This represents a dramatic

25.9% reduction in marketing time for

newly initiated sales (pending

sales). Clearly, the San Mateo County real

estate market was on the move, at least in

October 2009.



San Mateo County

The most interesting insights for October can be

found in the Days on Market versus amount

received by seller as compared to Original List

Price story. This report measures the number of

homes that sold for less than, the same or more

than the Original List Price because it is the most

telling reflection of how realistic sellers are in

setting their asking prices.

Of the 180 homes (45.5%) that sold in more than

31 days:

• 140 (77.8%) of the 180 sold for less

than the Original List Price

• 2 (1.11%) of the 180 on the market sold for the Original List Price

• 38 (21.1%) of the 180 sold for more than the Original List Price

Of the 216 homes (54.5%) that sold in less than 30 days:

• 77 (35.6%) sold for less than the Original List Price

• 25 (11.6%) sold for the Original List Price

• 114 (52.6%) sold for more than the Original List Price

It’s notable that 38.45% of San Mateo County homes were sold for more than their Original List

Price. And, 52.6% of the homes that sold for more than the Original List Price were on the market

for less than 30 days, while only 21.1% of the homes on the market for more than 31 days received

more than the Original List Price.

What Do the Numbers Mean to Home Sellers?

October’s sales figures are fairly representative of

Octobers in the past. We typically see an autumnal

bump after Labor Day followed by a cooling off

period. A home priced right at the outset of the listing

period will have the greatest chance of selling for top

dollar. A home on the market for more than 31 days

is most likely overpriced. Sellers should expect

market activity to subside as we move into the

predictable seasonal lull.

Drilling down into the details of specifically selected

cities, we begin to see a more interesting tale. Let’s look at several.



San Mateo County

Sold Summary

# Sold After Highest Lowest Median

# Sold Price Reduction Sold Price Sold Price Sold Price

4 + BR 126 40 $5,285,000 $185,000 $1,075,000

3 BR 204 44 $3,950,000 $181,000 $647,500

2 BR 66 12 $1,150,000 $150,000 $525,000

Number of Single Family Homes Sold in San Mateo County

Days on Market Comparison Summary

Note: OLP = Original List Price

# Sold in 30 Days or Less # Sold in 31 Days or More

# Sold <OLP @OLP >OLP <OLP @OLP >OLP

4 + BR 5 4 1

3 BR 2 1 1

2 BR 1 1

Number of San Mateo County homes sold that sold for less than, at or above original list price.



San Mateo County



San Mateo County



San Mateo

In October, 2009, we saw 58 single family homes sold in

the City of San Mateo. 24.1% of San Mateo home sellers

(14) had to reduce their asking prices to affect a

sale. The median price of all San Mateo homes sold rose

to $720,000 after three straight months of decline. The

City of San Mateo has the broadest spread of home’s sold

prices - $2,495,000 to $400,000 – of any city in San

Mateo County.

The Real Story of the San Mateo Real Estate Market

Again, the real story lies in the Days on Market analy-

sis. Days on Market is probably the best indicator of San Mateo real estate activity level. As

Days on Market lengthens, activity stalls and as Days on Market shorten, activity in-

creases. The most interesting insights for October can be found in the Days on Market versus

amount received by seller as compared to Original List Price story. This report measures the

number of homes that sold for less than, equal to or more than the Original List Price because

it is the most telling reflection of how realistic sellers are in setting their asking prices.

San Mateo Homes that Sold for At, Below and Above List Price

Here is a comparison of the number of homes selling for less than, at, or more than the Origi-

nal List Price. 58 single family homes sold in October 2009 with almost 2/3 of the homes

needed more than 31 days to affect a sale, and about 1/3 sold for more than the Original List

Price.

Of the 23 homes (60.3%) that sold in more than 31

days:

• 21 (36.2%) of the 58 sold for less than

the Original List Price

• 0 of the 58 on the market sold for the

Original List Price

• 2 (3.45%) of the 58 sold for more than

the Original List Price

Of the 35 homes (39.7%) that sold in less than 30 days:

• 11 (19.0%) of the 58 sold for less than the Original List Price

• 6 (10.3%) of the 58 sold for the Original List Price

• 18 (31.0%) of the 58 sold for more than the Original List Price



San Mateo

So, we see 55.2% of San Mateo home owners

received less than their Original List Price and

44.8% received the list price or more. That

means that prices are negotiated down in

more than 55% of the San Mateo real estate

transactions.

Pending Home Sales in San Mateo

Sales place under contract – pending sales –

continue to exceed the number of new listings

83/66, and the current inventory (154) level

continues its downward trend from its June

2008 high (193). The October sales volume of $47.7 Million on 58 closed sales is interesting

especially when compared to the $63.5 million on 66 sales in July 2008. That’s $15.8 million

dollars in volume less on 8 fewer sales at a time when the median sales price was $852,500.

What Do the Numbers Mean to San Mateo Buyers and Sellers?

Simply that the less expensive San Mateo homes are selling in greater quantity than more

expensive San Mateo homes. The most affordable homes are drawing the greatest

interest. It’s really the tale of two markets: well-priced, affordable San Mateo homes for

people to live in or investors to rent that sell within 30 days, and aggressively priced homes –

more than 60% of those sold – that were on the market for more than 31 days.



Number of Single Family Homes Sold in San Mateo

Number of San Mateo homes sold that sold for less than, at or above original list price.

San Mateo

Sold Summary



4 + BR 17 6 $2,495,000 $509,500 $1,029,000

3 BR 26 5 $1,400,000 $427,500 $675,000

2 BR 15 3 $955,000 $400,000 $589,500





4 + BR 17 2 1 2 12 0 0

3 BR 26 7 2 8 7 0 2

2 BR 15 2 3 8 2 0 0



San Mateo



San Mateo



Belmont

Belmont, California, home prices con-

tinue to remain stable as indicated by

the median sales price of $865,000 for

October, 2009. Only 3 of the 14 home

owners needed to reduce their asking

prices to affect a sale.

6 homes sold for the asking price or

more than the Original List Price and 9 of

14 sold in less than 30 days. Days on

market on average dropped to 38 which,

by any measure, indicates a fairly strong

buyer demand.

October's most costly Belmont home sold for $1,120,000 and the lowest priced Belmont home

sold for $650,000, both were 3 bedroom homes. The largest home sold – 4 bedrooms – sold

for $870,000.

Pending sales outpaced new listings 27/20 which generally means a market sliding toward the

seller’s favor. 2/3 of the homes sold in less than 30 days in October, 2009. Certainly, not a

seller’s market in terms of the manic we experienced in 2007, but none the less indicative of a

market in which sellers are not giving their homes away. Belmont tends to be a community

where home owners tend to stay longer and establish ties.

What Do the Numbers Mean to Buyers and Sellers?

Clearly, Belmont’s home prices are among the Peninsula’s most stable and least vola-

tile. Belmont homes may present, at this time, some of the best values in San Mateo

County. Excellent schools and unique hillside topography with mature foliage offer Belmont

home buyers a particular character not available on the barren flat lands.



Number of Single Family Homes Sold in Belmont

Number of Belmont homes sold that sold for less than, at or above original list price.

Belmont

Sold Summary



4 + BR 1 0 $870,000

3 BR 13 3 $1,120,000 $650,000 $860,000

2 BR 0





4 + BR 1 1

3 BR 13 5 1 3 3 0 1

2 BR 0



Belmont



Belmont



Foster City

Foster City Had the Fewest Homes Sold in

October 2009

Among the cities surveyed in the report, Foster City has

the distinction of having the fewest homes sold (8) in

October, 2009. Only 1 of 8 Foster City home owners felt

the need to reduce their asking price to sell their home.

Foster City Market Demand Remains Relatively Flat

Days on Market are probably the best indicator of Foster City real estate activity level. As Days

on Market lengthens, activity stalls and as Days on Market shorten, activity

increases. Considering the closed sales, it took Foster City home sellers 55 days to secure a

buyer under contract as compared to 48 days for the pending sales that have not yet closed

escrow. This indicates that the market demand holds fairly steady as Foster City homes sold

take about as much time to market as the newest pending sales.

This report measures the number of homes that sold for less than, equal to, or more than the

Original List Price because it is the most telling reflection of how realistic sellers are in setting

their asking prices.

7 of 8 Foster City Homes Sold in Less than 30 Days

7 of 8 homes sold in less than 30 days with 4 receiving less than the Original List Price, and the

single home that sold in more than 30 days sold for less than Original List Price as well.



Foster City Has the Most Homogenous

Housing Mix

Currently on the Mid-Peninsula, Foster City has

the narrowest spread between most and least

expensive homes sold - $1,208,000 to

$855,000. This is attributed to the relative

newness of the area as compared to the more

mature cities west of Highway 101 and Foster City

has a much more homogenous housing

composition.

Foster City Has Less than 3 Months

Inventory

The peak inventory (45) level in Foster City occurred in April, 2009. With a current inventory

of 20 Foster City homes for sale, at the present rate of sale, Foster City has just more than 2.5

months supply of homes on the market.

Foster City Sales Prices Continue to Climb

The Foster City median sales price ($1,025,000) continues to climb since April, 2009 after

reaching its all time peak ($1,250,000) in two separate months in 2008. With current

inventories falling rapidly and approaching more normal levels, we expect more balance in the

Foster City real estate market.

Foster City



Foster City

Number of single family homes sold in Foster City.





4 + BR 5 4 1

3 BR 2 1 1

2 BR 1 1

Number of Foster City homes sold that sold for less than, at or above original list price.

Sold Summary



4 + BR 5 0 $1,208,000 $850,000 $1,025,000

3 BR 2 0 $950,000 $855,000 $902,500

2 BR 1 1 $1,150,000



Foster City



Foster City



San Carlos

October, 2009, was an interesting month for San

Carlos home sales. Of the 25 single family homes

that sold in San Carlos, 5 home owners (20%) had

to reduce their asking price to affect a sale.

Closed sales for the month climbed to 25, well

above the number of closed sales (14) in October,

2008. Current inventory levels remain relatively

high when compared to 2007-2008 levels.

28% of Home Sellers Received More than their

Original List Price in Less than 30 Days

The most interesting part of the aspect of the

price data lies in the fact that 7 of 25 San Carlos

home owners received more than their Original

List Price within 30 days of the listing date. 16

(64%) of the 25 homes sold in less than 30 days,

and no home on the market for 31 days or more

received more than their Original List Price or even their Original List Price.

San Carlos Market Demand Holding Fairly Steady

Days on Market are probably the best indicator of San Carlos real estate activity level. As Days

on Market lengthens, activity stalls and as Days on Market shorten, activity increases. Consid-

ering the closed sales, it took sellers 45 days to secure a buyer under contract as compared to

43 days for the pending sales that have not yet closed escrow. This indicates that the market

demand holds fairly steady as San

Carlos homes sold take about as

much time to market as the new-

est pending sales.

This report measures how many

homes sold for less, equal to, or

more than the Original Listed

Price. This relationship to the

Original List Price is the most tell-

ing reflection of how realistic sell-

ers are in setting their asking

prices.



San Carlos

Median Price Displays Signs of Volatility

The most costly home in San Carlos sold

for $1,900,000 - substantially more than

the highest price home in its neighboring

city Belmont. San Carlos' upper tier mar-

ket is overall higher than Belmont. San

Carlos’ median list price ($907,000) - the

highest since May, 2009 – continues to

displays signs of volatility primarily be-

cause of the wide gap between the most

expensive ($1,900,000) and least expen-

sive ($380,000) home sold.

All Indicators Point a Market Trending

Toward Balance

While the data is interesting, it’s important to note that there are significant differences be-

tween individual homes in the more expensive and most desirable neighborhoods of San Car-

los. Every property is unique from another. Trends are enlightening but should not be the de-

termining factor on a specific property’s value. The convergence of the number of closed sales

and the number of new listings almost

always indicates a market trending to-

ward balance.

San Carlos Real Estate Expected to Re-

main Strong

The San Carlos home resale market re-

mains highly desirable and resil-

ient. There are no indications that San

Carlos is about to experience any pre-

cipitous price declines. We expect, bar-

ring any untoward national or regional

economic catastrophes, the San Carlos

real estate market to remain strong.



San Carlos

Number of Single Family Homes Sold in San Carlos

Number of San Carlos homes sold that sold for less than, at or above original list price.

Sold Summary



4 + BR 6 2 $1,900,000 $920,000 $1,269,278

3 BR 16 3 $1,059,000 $730,000 $853,000

2 BR 3 0 $710,000 $380,000 $675,000





4 + BR 6 1 1 4

3 BR 16 4 2 6 4

2 BR 3 2 1



San Carlos



San Carlos



Redwood City Has 2nd

Highest Number of

Home Sales

Of the cities surveyed in this report, Redwood City had

a 2nd

highest number of home sales (54) in October,

2009. The most dramatic factoid is the huge spread

between the highest price home sold - $2,725,000 -

and the lowest price home sold - $150,000. The

owners of 17 of the 54 homes had to reduce their list

asking price to affect a sale.

Redwood City Real Estate Market Slowing?

Days on Market is probably the best indicator of Redwood City's real estate activity level. As

Days on Market lengthens, activity stalls and as Days on Market shorten, activity

increases. Considering the closed sales, it took Redwood City home sellers 53 days to secure a

buyer under contract as compared to 96 days for the pending sales that have not yet closed

escrow. This indicates a significant increase in the marketing time for pending home sales –

those in contract, but not yet closed. This is something that should be watched as it may be a

harbinger of a slowing in the Redwood City real estate market.

How Well Did Redwood City Home Owners Price their Homes?

This report measures the number of homes that

sold for less than, equal to or more than the

Original List Price because it is the most telling

reflection of how realistic Redwood City home

sellers are in setting their asking prices.

8 (51.9%) sold in less than 30 days. 21 (38.9%)

of 54 Redwood City home owners received their

Original List Price or more. 26 homes took more

than 31 days to sell of which 22 sold for less than their Original List Price. Only 4 homes on the

market for more than 31 days sold for more than its Original List Price. That is not a surprising

figure as the longer a home is on the market the greater the chance that it will sell for less

than asking. We calculate sales differential from Original List Price because it is a truer

measure the negotiating balance between sellers and buyers.

Redwood City



Redwood City

Highest Number of Sales Since June 2007

More Redwood City homes closed escrow (54) than

in any month since June 2007. Newly initiated

Redwood City home sale contracts (91) exceeded

new listings (78) for the 6th

straight month. Given

the increase in marketing time, and the fact that 33

of 54 (61.1%) homes sold for less than their Original

List Price, the Redwood City real estate market may

be losing steam. Since December, 2008, the

Redwood City housing market has enjoyed a surge

in the number of new listings to the 96 currently in

contract. It’s taken these homes longer to sell, so it

will be interesting to see how many home owners

sold for less than their Original List Price in the weeks to come.

All Real Estate is Local – Especially in Redwood City

Redwood City is a text book example of the phrase “all real estate is local” – very

local. Notable differences exist between neighborhoods within the same zip code and even

within the same Realtor Map Code. It’s because of the uniqueness of each property and the

inability to move it that makes location the single most influential factor on the value of a

home.



Number of Single Family Homes Sold in Redwood City

Number of Redwood City homes sold that sold for less than, at or above original list price.

Redwood City

Sold Summary



4 + BR 13 6 $2,725,000 $440,000 $950,000

3 BR 22 6 $1,375,000 $243,000 $686,500

2 BR 19 5 $700,000 $150,000 $468,000





4 + BR 13 3 1 1 8

3 BR 22 4 3 3 10 2

2 BR 19 4 0 9 4 0 2



Redwood City



Redwood City

Business

San Mateo County Real Estate Price Report