PrimCity: Policy Development Kit

Andrey A. KrasovskiiIIASA, Laxenburg

Dmitry A. PisarenkoMoscow, Russia

Purpose of the Project

To create a piece of software for creating strategies of economic

development of a city in the Russian Far East

Key benefits

✔ Based on real data

✔ Microsimulation approach (aka SimCity for a real city)

✔ Developed policies can be communicated easily to stakeholders

without formal training in math and/or economics

Competitive Analysis

• Several microsimulation models have been developed by other researchers

• Most advanced: UrbanSim

• Drawback: Can not be easily adapted to Russian data

Structure of the Project

Part 1. Control Model for Population Dynamics in Russia

Design of Fertility/Mortality Control

➔ The controls stand for investments into fertility growth and

mortality retention and have different regimes.

➔ To interpret controls, we associate them with investments into

factors, which indirectly (through statistically correlated economic,

social, cultural, etc. processes) affect these demographic

indicators.

Modeling Control in Population Dynamics

Modeling Results

The period is devided in 4 phases:

1. Stable fertility growth and moderate mortality growth from 1970 to 1986.

2. Dramatic decline in investments, and, consequently, decrease in fertility and

rise in mortality from 1986 to 1991.

3. Catching up: From 1991 to 1998 – recovery of fertility and attempts at mortality

retention.

4. Period of "stagnation": from 1998 to 2001 – constant investments in fertility and

mortality retention.

Interpretation of Control Policies

Source of data: S.Yu. Glazev et al. White Book. Economic Policy in Russia in 1991-2001. Eksmo, Moscow, 2003. (in Russian)

Factors highly correlated with mortality:✔ The rate of setting up new hospitals;✔ The rate of setting up of new kindergartens;✔ The rate of setting up of new polyclinics;✔ Number of theater visits.

Factors highly correlated with mortality:✔ Degree of income stratification;✔ Level of industrial production;✔ Number of theatre visits;✔ Number of books printed;✔ Number of letters sent;✔ Production of kvass.

Total factors in the analysis: 23.

Part 2. Population Generator

Generating Synthetic Population and Households of Artyom

Artyom is a real city in the Far East region

of Russia with population of 103,000

inhabitants. We generate synthetic

population with atributes:

Input data for the generator:

current aggregated statistics for the Far East region and Russian

Federation.

Results from Generator

Age distribution of women

Distribution of households by number of people

Distribution of households by number of children

Fertility Model for Synthetic Population Growth

The decion for a woman to have a child is defined by the probability which is

calculated as the weighted sum of conditional probabilities depending on woman's

attributes:

➔ Age

➔ Number of children

➔ Socio-economic factors (i.e. distance from the household to the hospital)

Simulator screensot linking database to GIS