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© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 2
Amsterdam, 26th of May 2015
SHOPPINGTOMORROW HIGHLIGHTS“The best way to predict your future is to create it” – Abraham Lincoln
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 44
Ecommerce Europe represents 25,000+ firms that sell online in EuropeEcommerce Europe is represented by 16 National Assocations
Our Mission:To foster & promote the interest of
e-commerce in Europe
16National
Associations
25.000+NationalMembers
35+European
Business Partners
Advocacy & Communication
Research & Networking
European Trust Certificate
INTRODUCTION
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 66
The “cookie” law is costing Europe € 1.8 billion per yearINTRODUCTION
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 88
Agenda
Why Shopping2020?
Highlighs:• The Market• The Consumer• Technology• Sustainability• Competition
What’s Next?
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 99
Why Shopping2020?
Disintermediation
Google Glasses
3D Printing
Amazonization
Changing consumer
WHY SHOPPING2020?
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 1010
The central research question of Shopping2020
How will the consumer shop in 2020 and what actions should be taken on a national, branch and
company level upon that B2C-operating companies can
successfully respond to this, both nationally and internationally?
WHY SHOPPING2020?
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 1111
A different research approach was chosen than normally. The business, science & political communities were invited to create their own vision
Customer Journey
KeyThemes
FutureTrends
Identifying expert groups, & substantiating trends and
their impact
All trends are combinedwith concrete actions and
recommendations
Determiningresearch questions, expert groups and
desk research
Two research studies among 444 experts and 12,000
consumers
Expert groups define actions based on weighted trends
Desk research(March 1 – June 1)
Expert Trend Analysis(June 13 - Nov. 15)
Wisdom of the Crowds(Oct. 15 – Nov. 25)
Action Plans(Nov. 1 - Dec. 15)
Synthesis(Dec. 15 - March 15, ‘14)
WHY SHOPPING2020?
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 1212
In total, more than 460 experts worked for six months on Shopping2020WHY SHOPPING2020?
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 1313
The 460 experts were divided across 19 themes. Each expert group produced a report of its own. McKinsey supported in writing the synthesis.
ShopperBehavior
Cross-border (e-)Commerce
TechnologicalFuture Touch
PointsEcological Political / Legal
Orientation Selection
Transaction Delivery
BusinessModels
Omni-channelOrganization
Security & FraudThe New Shopping
Street
Smartershopping
Supply Chain
Future Trends
Customer Journey Key Themes
TravelAction Plan
Finance Action Plan
Retail Action Plan
…Action Plan
Action PlanShopping2020
Customer CareCustomer
Data Value Management
Online Business …
Shopping2020Vision
WHY SHOPPING2020?
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 1414
The program organization of Shopping2020
Founding Partners: Scientific Partners:Knowledge Partners:
Program mgt: Jorij AbrahamMar/Com: Inge DemoedResearch: Eveline PoerinkCongress: Marin Wiellersen
Travel Retail Finance
Expert GroupShopperBehavior
Expert Group Cross-Border (e-
)Commerce
Expert Group Technological
Expert Group Future Touch Points
Expert Group Ecological
Expert GroupPolitical /
Legal…… … … …
Expert GroupOnline Business
Expert GroupBusinessmodels
Expert Group Security / Fraud
Expert Group Omni-channel Organization
Expert Group The New Shopping
Street
Expert GroupSupply Chain
………
… …
Expert GroupOrientation
Expert Group Selection
Expert Group Transaction
Expert Group Delivery
Expert Group Customer
Care
Expert GroupCustomer Data
Value ManagementArjen Bonsing …… … … … …
Committee of Recommendation
ProgramBoard
FutureTrends
Key Themes
CustomerJourney
SupportTeam
…Dymfke Kuijpers
…Axel Groothuis
Ed Nijpels (Chairman)Bernard Wientjes (VNO-NCW)Arie van Bellen (Director ECP)Martijn van Dam (MoP PvdA)Jan Kees de Jager (former Minister of Finance)
Cor Molenaar (Erasmus University)Kitty Koelemeijer (Nyenrode University)Walther Ploos van Amstel (Free University)Erik Fledderus (Director TNO)Heleen van Oord (Director DQ&A)
Giovanni Colauto (CEO Bijenkorf)Harry Bruijniks (CEO Euretco)Ronald van Zetten (CEO Hema)Joost Romeijn (CEO Sundio Group)Paul Nijhof (CEO RFS Holding/Wehkamp)Annemarie van Gaal (CEO van Gaal & Co.)
Dick Boer (CEO Ahold)Herna Verhagen (CEO PostNL)Nick Jue (CEO ING NL)Michiel Buitelaar (COO Sanoma Media)Danny van der Eijk (Chairman Achmea)Harry van Dorenmalen (CEO IBM Europe)
Network Partners:
SmarterShopping
Media Partners:
WHY SHOPPING2020?
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 1515
Several results of Shopping2020
360 visitorsfor ShoppingTomorrow
1000+ visitors for ShoppingToday
150+ expert group meetings
25+ external presentations
20,000+ reports downloadedat Shopping2020.nl
20+ company visits
370+ press publications
2,500+ visitors for ShoppingTogether
5,000+ subscriptions tothe Shopping2020 Newsletter
60+ In-CompanyMaster Classes
460 involved experts
150+ participating companies
Supported by 16 branch organizations
1,280 Twitter followers
Research among 12,000 consumers
3,500+ unique visitors p/wat Shopping2020.nl
WHY SHOPPING2020?
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 1616
You can download all reports from Shopping2020.nlWHY SHOPPING2020?
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 23
THE MARKET“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” Henry Ford
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 2424
83%
17%
Relation online/offline purchases
Offline verkoop
Online verkoop
35%
14%13%
9%
7%
6%
4%
4%4%
1%
1%1%
1% 1%
Market share per segment Food/Nearfood/Health
Home & Garden
Fashion: apperal
Consumer electronics
Insurances
Travel packages
Fashion: shoes & personallifestyleFlight tickets &accommodationsTelecom
Media & Entertainment
Toys (excl. Games)
Event tickets
Books
Sport (hardware)
Source: Desk research GfK 2012* The definition of consumer spending is smaller than applied by Statistics Netherlands and can be found in the full report.
Where are we in 2012: € 65.9 billion in Dutch consumer spending of which 17% is purchased online in the Netherlands
THE MARKET
Offline purchases
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 2525
Online grows explosively over the next seven years in the NetherlandsTHE MARKET
Online; 20%
Offline; 80%
2013
Online; 28%
Offline; 72%
2017
Online; 36%
Offline; 64%
2020
Source: GfK Expert Research, September 2013 among 444 Experts
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 2727
Dutch consumer expects to buy 52% online in 2020 THE MARKET
Source: GfK Consumer Research, November 2013 among 12,000 Consumers
52
36
17
2020 –consumer expectation
2020 – expert expectation
2012
Total amountEUR million
10 25-28
On average, 25% of the consumers expect to not use the physical channel at all anymore in 2020
Ø 25
Fashion: clothing 12Sport (hardware) 14Home and Garden 15Daily groceries 17Fashion: shoes & lifestyle 17Books 20Toys 20Consumer electronics 23Media and entertainment 24Telecom 31Travel packages 36Insurances 37Event tickets 40Flight tickets and accom. 41
Online purchases1
Percentage
For which products/services will the consumer (definitely) not go to the physical retail anymore?% respondents (n=11913)
xx
35-40
The consumer expects to make as much as 52% of its purchases online in 2020
1 GfK uses the following definition for online purchases: purchases made through smartphones, tablets, desktops, laptops, in-store devices, other digital devices (watches, glasses, …) and collecting online purchase at pick-up point
Services
Products
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 2828
17%
50% 53% 53% 57%49%
36%
21% 20% 23%
10% 10% 8%13%
1%
+19%
+31% +23% +23% +14%
+14%
+15%
+26%+20% +11%
+17% +17%+14%
+9%
+13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
status 2012 groei t/m 2020
36%
81%76% 76%
71%
63%
51%47%
40%34%
27% 27%22% 22%
14%
THE MARKET
Status 2020Status 2012
The growth of online differs significantly per segment in the Netherlands: Travel is in the lead, Food grows fast
Source: GfK Expert Research, September 2013 among 444 Experts
Online market share per market segment in 2020
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 3030
65.9 64.6
70.173.6
11.012.6
19.4
26.9
54.952.0 50.7
46.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2012 2013 2017 2020
Total consumer spending (corrected for inflation)
Totale markt
Online
Offline
€b
illio
ns
+12%
-15%
+145%
Online replaces Offline but total spending only grows marginallyTHE MARKET
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 3131
112
126
122
113
112
110
110
108
108
107
106
105
104
104
90
80 90 100 110 120 130
Totaal
Telecom
Home & Garden
Food/Nearfood/Health
Media & Entertainment
Losse vliegtickets & accommodaties
Tickets voor e venementen
Fashion: schoenen & personal lifestyle
Consumentenelektronica
Pakketreizen
Sport
Fashion:kleding
Speelgoed
Verzekeringen
Boeken
THE MARKET
The growth per market segment differs significantly. For most of them, growth is limited.
Total
Telecom
Home & Garden
Food/Near food/Health
Media & Entertainment
Flight tickets & accommodations
Event tickets
Fashion: shoes & personal lifestyle
Consumer electronics
Travel packages
Sport (hardware)
Fashion: apparel
Toys (excl. Games)
Insurances
Books
Source: GfK Expert Research, September 2013 among 444 Experts
Growth per market segment (online & offline) in relation to 2012
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 32
THE CONSUMER“There is only one boss. The customer. And he can fire everybody in the company from the chairman on down, simply by spending his money somewhere else...”
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 3333
In 2020, there will be (almost) no digital illiterates anymore…
Source: Gary Swartz, The Impulse Economy Photo’s: iStock
THE CONSUMER
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 3434
The consumer of 2020 will be more powerful than ever…THE CONSUMER
I know
• more about the product….
• the lowest prices…
• where it’s available...
I determine
• what I read, see, hear and do
• where, when and how I make my
purchases
I make
• or break
• your product/service
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 3636
Slimmed-down alternativeBargain hunter
Source: McKinsey
Example: Canceling existing travel plansApplies to:Leisure spending
Example: Going to a three-star alternative instead of a luxurious hotelApplies to: insurances, medical/health, communication
Example: Using the Internet to find the best priceApplies to:Groceries, Electronics, Toys and Games, Clothing
A
B
Decreasing volume C
E D
Lowering prices
THE CONSUMER
Consuming less seems to be a trend that will remain after the crisis
Control spending
Replace if necessary
Do-It-Yourself
Example: Staying at friends o family instead of a hotelApplies to: Home furnishing
Example: Postponing travel plansApplies to: Home Furnishing, Electronics, Cars
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 3737
Consumers look for product information on a wide range of websites, but more than 50% limit their search to one web shop
THE CONSUMER
17
52
14
17
4+2
31
# of web shops visited until choice is made
There are more channels available to find information and consumers use them all
However, 87% of the consumers limit their search to a maximum of three web shops
SOURCE: GfK; Expert Report "Cross-Border (e-)Commerce"
Consultation of channels by consumersPercentage of respondents
# of web shops visited until purchasePercentage of respondents
41
56
63
78
81
81
81
93
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 3838
% of research per channel
The consumer starts (en ends) its search increasingly often at one place
SOURCE: McKinsey iConsumer U.S. 2012
12
15
10
18
17
19
19
15
22
16
14
13
23
18
13
Pet supplies
9Clothing
10
Furniture 10
Office supplies 11
Jewelry 12
Footwear 12
Sporting goods 13
Home décor 14
Computer HW & SW 16
Electronics 21
Video games 22
Music 31
Toys 31
DVD/Video 34
Books 42
Am
azo
n-o
wn
ed
Go
ogl
e-o
wn
ed
NOT EXHAUSTIVE
THE CONSUMER
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 3939
The growth of “Do-It-Yourself”, the sharing economy, is spectacular
SOURCE: online search; Marktplaats.nl; Forrester
969393929491
2007
+1% p.a.
20122011201020092008
Consumer-to-consumer (C2C) turnover grows 28 times as fast as total retail turnover
Total retail turnover the NetherlandsIn billions of euros
Many new C2C platforms have emerged in recent years
C2C platformsYear of establishment
20041995 1999 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
THE CONSUMER
1 There is only data available from 2010 and growth 2012-2013 for 2010-2012 a growth of 20% has been assumed (growth online market was 19% p.a. in these years)
2010 2012 20132011
~97,5 ~11 ~14
Turnover Marktplaats.nl1
In billions of euros
28%
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 4444
One million Germans have shared a car last yearThe market grew with 37,4% in 2014 (51% in 2013)
http://www.carsharing.de/presse/pressemitteilungen/pressemitteilung-vom-16032015
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 4545
The sharing economy can have a huge impact in a very short period of timeLyft caused a reduction of 30% in taxi turnover in the Bay Area in 2013
THE CONSUMER
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lyft www.sanjose.com/2013/10/23/ridesharing_service_lyft_disrupts_silicon_valley/
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 4646
Pley, 75.000 toysets hired and countingAllowing consumers to save 75% on the cost of buying Lego
THE CONSUMER
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 4747
Borrow my doggy, matching dog owners & borrowersDog owners pay € 44,99 p/y, borrowers € 9,95 p/y
THE CONSUMER
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 4848
Rent the Runway, A Netflix Model for Haute CoutureWhy buy a dress when you can rent it (for 16% of the costs)?
THE CONSUMER
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 51
TECHNOLOGYWe're not a retailer competing in Silicon Valley. We're building an Internet technology company inside the world's largest retailer.” - Wallmart
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 5252
The Internet has become something gigantic…
Source: www.internetlivestats.com/
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 5353
Towards 2020, hundreds of new technologies will come our way…TECHNOLOGY
SOURCE: Gartner Hype Cycle 2014
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 5454
The pace of innovation and adoption of technology is increasing exponentially
SOURCE: McKinsey
Nintendo WiiiPadiPhoneNetflixBlackBerryiPod
Number of days until sale of one million items
TECHNOLOGY
2874
~300+
~360+
~13
~180
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 5555
We truly believe in omnichannel, because the customer is
omnichannel. Adriaan Thierry
E-VP Marketing, Formats & E-Commerce
Online and offline technology will increasingly mergeTECHNOLOGY – ONLINE/OFFLINE INTEGRATION
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 5656
The borders between online and offline are disappearingTECHNOLOGY – ONLINE/OFFLINE INTEGRATION
Source: Todd Pollak, Industry Director Retail, Google
44% researches
online & buys
online
51% researches
online & buys
instore
17% visits a store
& buys online
32% researches
online, visits a
store & buys
online
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 5757
Online shopping evokes functional associationsBricks & mortar more social attributes
http://blog.gfk.com/2014/11/what-next-for-the-shopping-mall-the-blended-shopping-experience/
TECHNOLOGY – ONLINE/OFFLINE INTEGRATION
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 5858
Online and offline technology will increasingly mergeTECHNOLOGY – ONLINE/OFFLINE INTEGRATION
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 6060
Mycom uses tablets to sell the ‘long tail’ and offer better serviceIt allowed the retail chain of 23 stores to acquire Dixons with 128 store
TECHNOLOGY – ONLINE/OFFLINE INTEGRATIE
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 6464
Online & offline will increasingly merge to provide informationTECHNOLOGY – ONLINE/OFFLINE INTEGRATION
Source: Estimote iBeacon (http://youtu.be/sUIqfjpInxY)
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 6666
Starbucks is testing iBeacon to recognize customers when they enter a store, to serve them immediately and to enable them to pay automatically
TECHNOLOGY – ONLINE/OFFLINE INTEGRATION
http://www.onemorething.nl/2014/01/vier-elementen-voor-een-betaalsysteem-van-apple-die-nu-al-in-je-iphone-zitten/
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 6767
Rebecca Minkoff uses touch screens to facilitate the in store experienceBy not only showing off new products but also making the dressing room a positive experience
TECHNOLOGY – ONLINE/OFFLINE INTEGRATION
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 7373
Online & offline will increasingly merge…for purchasesTECHNOLOGY – ONLINE/OFFLINE INTEGRATION
Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oUD57MpHAE8
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 7575
Bloomingdale offered a 3D body scanner in 70 stores for the perfect fitThe scanner failed. Women found it to confronting and jeans were offered only in 15 sizes
http://www.me-ality.com/fit-solutions
TECHNOLOGY – ONLINE/OFFLINE INTEGRATION
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 8181
Audi uses digital media to get the showroom in the shopping streetTECHNOLOGY – ONLINE/OFFLINE INTEGRATION
Source: http://www.audi.co.uk/audi-innovation/audi-city.html
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 8383
Mini Concept Store proves you can create an experience without techTECHNOLOGY – ONLINE/OFFLINE INTEGRATION
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 8484
Holograms will increastingly be part of the in store experience TECHNOLOGY – ONLINE/OFFLINE INTEGRATION
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 8686
Holograms even get their own fan base like Hatsune MikuTECHNOLOGY – ONLINE/OFFLINE INTEGRATION
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 8888
32%
31%
22%
10%
3% 15%
10%
33%
21%
9%
5%3%4%
Laptop Desktop Tablet
Smartphone Interactive/Internet television Glasses (e.g. Google Glasses)
Smart watches Other devices
Distribution of online purchase channels in 2020 (%)
Base: all experts who have given their vision on the total marketand have evaluated a specific segment (n= 268)
2013 2020
TECHNOLOGY – MEDIA/BODY INTEGRATION
The tablet and mobile phone displace the laptop/PC The importance of I-TV and Smartware (watches, glasses) is increasing
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 8989
In India mobile is so popular traditional web shops are shut downMyntra draws as much as 80% of its traffic and 70% of sales from its mobile app
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/tech/tech-news/Myntra-to-shut-website-from-May-1/articleshow/46818792.cms
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 9090
However in the US the desktop / mobile ratio is less favorableThe costs of supporting mobile does not yet delivery direct sales
Source: comScore, 2015 US Digital Future in Focus, March 26 2015
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 9696
IKEA helps you try furniture before you buyTECHNOLOGY – ONLINE/OFFLINE INTEGRATION
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 9999
Everywhere where products are available, the consumer will make purchases: from the TV, on the street…
TECHNOLOGY – ONLINE/OFFLINE INTEGRATION
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 100100
Voice control is still a challenge but doubling in usage every yearBut we are learning agents to also hear emotions and lip-read
TECHNOLOGY – ONLINE/OFFLINE INTEGRATION
http://www.nu.nl/gadgets/3783453/spraakbesturing-wereld-verovert.html
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2010 2011 2012 2013
# billion of voice commands
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 101101
We may work with fingernail sized devices…TECHNOLOGY – ONLINE/OFFLINE INTEGRATION
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 104104
Media are coming closer to our bodies; we will be online continuouslyTECHNOLOGY – MEDIA/BODY INTEGRATION
Source: https://vimeo.com/46304267
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 108108
In 2020, not every customer will come to the (web) shop…
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
www.hongkiat.com/blog/30-futuristic-phones-we-wish-were-real/
TECHNOLOGY – MEDIA/BODY INTEGRATION
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 115115
Expectation is that in 2020 we will own 6,5 connected devices
Source: Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group, april 2011
TECHNOLOGY – MEDIA/BODY INTEGRATION
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 116116
The Pyramid of TechnologyTechnology is moving toward becoming natural
http://www.nextnature.net/2014/08/pyramid-of-technology/
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 117117
Source: Hapilabs.com
The product is becoming more and more digitalTECHNOLOGY – PRODUCT DIGITIZATION
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 118118
Shoes coach you how to sport better
Source: Steven van Belleghem
TECHNOLOGY – PRODUCT DIGITIZATION
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 119119
The diaper tells you when it needs to be changed
http://www.nst.com.my/latest/japan-sensor-will-let-diaper-say-baby-needs-changing-1.480875
TECHNOLOGY – PRODUCT DIGITIZATION
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 120120
Create your own chair & work healthyTECHNOLOGY – PRODUCT DIGITIZATION
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 123123
3D scanning & printing is changing the entire production chain
Source: http://www.3ders.org/articles/20120620-tool-less-production-of-moulds-using-3d-printing-technology.htmlhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPvxShlrm58&list=PLUWBnRobGU6gMcaXFRKwYa_F_OKILjA4L
TECHNOLOGY – 3D PRINTING
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 125125
3D Printing can have an impact of $ 550 billion worldwide
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/business_technology/disruptive_technologieshttp://www.mckinsey.com/insights/manufacturing/3-d_printing_takes_shape?cid=other-eml-nsl-mip-mck-oth-1402http://www.explainingthefuture.com/3dprinting.html
Less (local) stock
TECHNOLOGY – 3D PRINTING
Production of lighter& ‘impossible’ products
Quicker design & production process
Mass one-on-oneproduction
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 126126
Even traditional retail chains like Hema have started offering 3D printingWhile sales is still minimal, this was also the case for photo printing. Now Hema market leader.
TECHNOLOGY – 3D PRINTING
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 130130
Appie, from shopping list to primary online ordering toolTECHNOLOGY – BIG DATA
Albert Heijn prefills 80 to 90% of its mobile app shopping list for its customers
Bron: www.emerce.nl/nieuws/ahnl-maakt-zich-reeks-online-vernieuwingen
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 135135
Privacy seems to be an offline issue …
Pragmatists
Willing to provide their personal data to
companies in return fro free services or other
benefits
Fundamentalists
Do not share data with organizations unless
there are mandatory reasons to
do so
The CarelessDo not care who uses their data and
how their data is used
53%
16%
31%
Online customers are willing to provide their data as long as there is a clear benefit
Bron: Expertgroep Analytics & Big Data, Shopping2020
TECHNOLOGY – BIG DATA
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 136136
RadioShack is selling its customer data of 67 million customersRadioShack filled for bankruptcy and is trying to sell its (intellectual) assets of 1740 stores
TECHNOLOGY – BIG DATA
http://www.sltrib.com/home/2453366-155/radioshack-is-looking-to-sell-customer
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 177177
Vacancy in 2020 is 10%, if the current trend continues
SUSTAINABILITY
The shopping street is changing, the high vacancy rate is becoming an increasingly larger problem
In the UK, the vacancy rate has already reached 15%
“Big chains won't return to high street because of rise of online shoppers”Mary Portas Review
09
5,5
10
6,0
11
6,3
12
7,5
2015
10,0
2020
5,0
2008
+5,9% p.a.
5,3
Vacant points of sale1, %
SOURCE: Locatus, Expert Reports “The New Shopping Street"
1 Extrapolated in 2015 and 2020 on the basis over average annual growth 2008-2012; vacancy is defined as a vacant building that is intended for sale. Buildings that used to be shops but are now used differently will not be included.
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 178178
American shopping mall traffic declines with 50% from 2010 to 2013Due to over offering, a return to down town and rise of online shopping (6%)
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 180180
Number of parcelsMillion
Value per deliveryEUR
Online retail turnover in the NetherlandsBillions of euros
Increasing parcel traffic requires new solutions
11,3
6,54,64,13,63,02,51,8
+12% p.a.1
+21% p.a.
77101
118123123140156155 -5% p.a.2
-5% p.a.
202020152012111009082007
575
250180
+18% p.a.
202020152013
1 Based on growth in accordance with the experts in the GfK Expert Report2 Decrease of 2007-2012 extrapolated 3 based on approx. 9-10 million households in 2020
SOURCE: GfK Expert Research; Expert Report "Cross-border (e-)Commerce“; parcelbox4u.com; PostNL
ROUGH ESTIMATE
~1.5 million parcels delivered per day ~60 small parcels per year per household3 in 2020 35% of current parcel traffic is air traffic at the
moment
X
SUSTAINABILITY
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 189
MARKET CONCENTRATION & CROSS BORDER ECOMMERCE“Start with the customer and work backwards.“ Jeff Bezos, CEO Amazon
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 190190
Distribution of online retail turnover of the Dutch top 100 retailersPercentage
While the Dutch e-commerce market grew with 45% in 2010 – 2012the number of retailers owning 90% shrunk with 9%
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
64 82 93 67 85 9499 99
▪ 90% of sales is owned by 58 retailers
SOURCE: Twinkle100 retail 2011; Twinkle100 retail 2013
10 10
42 47
2010100% = 3.1 billion
2012100% = 4.5 billion
Players Players
Cu
mu
lati
ve s
ales
▪ 90% of sales is owned by 53 retailers
Small Large Small Large
MARKET CONCENTRATION & CROSS BORDER E-COMMERCE
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 191191
Big is becoming beautifull (again). One Winner Takes All.
Books
Insurance
Fashion
Hotels
Fast Food
MARKET CONCENTRATION & CROSS BORDER E-COMMERCE
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 196196
The number of European consumers that buy online with foreign players increases quickly
SOURCE: EC (2013) Consumer Attitudes Towards Cross Border Trade and Consumer Protection
15
10
78
7
+21% p.y.
86
444
+19% p.y.
20122011201020092008
Consumers that bought products online outside of their own country in the last 12
Within the EU
Outside of the EU
Percentage
MARKET CONCENTRATION & CROSS BORDER E-COMMERCE
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Consumers are buying increasingly more cross border.Larger countries are leading the way.
SOURCE: Civic Consulting (2011); “Consumer market study on the functioning of eCommerce” in EC (2012) Bringing eCommerce benefits to customers
In which countries did you buy products/services online (%, 2011)?
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
U.K.
Total
13
20
48
40
29
20
29
19
21
41
28
34
…
24
…
2
3
4
1
31
4
4
3
1
2
3
2
8
4
3
2
3
3
5
…
5
3
4
8
3
6
4
Italy
4
38
8
7
3
11
4
5
…
3
2
3
6
6
Nether-lands
2
0
1
1
1
3
2
0
2
0
0
2
3
2
Poland
1
2
2
2
5
4
7
2
4
21
…
3
8
5
Spain
1
1
22
22
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
…
2
2
SwedenUnited KingdomAustria
2
…
1
2
15
4
4
19
15
1
5
2
3
5
Belgium
0
0
…
5
2
4
2
1
2
1
2
15
2
2
Denmark
90
26
32
38
41
…
36
78
43
18
22
32
21
27
GermanyFrance
5
42
5
5
…
9
26
43
11
16
27
9
17
14
Country of origin
Country where products/services were purchased
MARKET CONCENTRATION & CROSS BORDER E-COMMERCE
Percentage > 10%
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COMPETITION“Start with the customer and work backwards.“ Jeff Bezos, CEO Amazon
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The global e-commerce market is exploding, especially in AsiaCOMPETITION
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The top 10 webshops of GermanyTurnover in millions €
Bron: Statista, http://twinklemagazine.nl/nieuws/2014/09/amazon-tekent-voor-30-procent-omzet-duitse-top-100/index.xml
COMPETITION
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Amazon is still leading the way and setting the standardWith selection (the everything store), lowest prices, best convenience & great confidence
COMPETITION
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Ebay offers (near-)instant commerce; ordering & delivering in 60 minutesCOMPETITION
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Google is migrating from “search” to “find” to “buy” platformGoogle is slowly expanding its vertical searches for hotels, flights, goods, insurances
COMPETITION
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Alibaba sold for $ 9.3 billion on Singles Day (11th of November)A rise of 60% compared to 2013
COMPETITION
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Will market places rule the world in 2020?The “everything store strategy” results in conversion ratio’s up to 20%
# of countries active Growth 2013
13 22%
1*(just bought US 11Main)
50%
13 45%
The 3rd party strategy is a cash cow; as sales growth their costs remain the same
Market share
2 – 20%
55 – 60%
20 – 30%
* Although Alibaba offers an international site it is not focused on a specifica market
COMPETITION
1 200%25%
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Supply chain and delivery will become increasingly complex
(R)Etail /
Reseller
Product brandEur. DC / Reg. DC
Retail Distribution center
Retail chain stores
Specialist store
Manufacturer
Wholesale Store replenishment
Between stores
Consignment/VMI
Cross dock
Concession / shop in shop
Private
label
Wholesale
(R)Etail /
Reseller
Product brandEur. DC / Reg. DC
Retail Distribution center
Retail chain stores
Specialist store
Manufacturer
Wholesale Store replenishment
Between stores
Consignment/VMI
Cross dock
Concession / shop in shop
Private
label
Home delivery from online retailer
Home delivery from small retailer
Wholesale
Online store replenishment
(R)Etail /
Reseller
Product brandEur. DC / Reg. DC
Retail Distribution center
Retail chain stores
Specialist store
Manufacturer
Wholesale Store replenishment
Between stores
Consignment/VMI
Cross dock
Concession / shop in shop
Private
label
Home delivery from online retailer
Home delivery from small retailer
Pick up points
Pick up in store
From store to door/pick in store
Pick up at pick up point Home delivery from
small retailer
Wholesale
Online store replenishment
(R)Etail /
Reseller
Product brandEur. DC / Reg. DC
Retail Distribution center
Retail chain stores
Specialist store
Manufacturer
Wholesale Store replenishment
Between stores
Consignment/VMI
Cross dock
Concession / shop in shop
Private
label
Home delivery from online retailer
Home delivery from small retailer
Pick up points
Pick up in store
From store to door/pick in store
Pick up at pick up point Home delivery from
small retailer
Concession Pick up at pick up point Home delivery from market place DC
C2C
Wholesale
Online store replenishment
Market place
E-fullfilmentcenter (r)etailer(s)
C2C
Brand direct
(R)Etail /
Reseller
Market place
Product brandEur. DC / Reg. DC
Retail Distribution center
Retail chain stores
Pick up points
Mono brand stores
Specialist store
Home
E-fullfilmentcenter (r)etailer(s)
E-fullfilmentcenter product brand(s)
Market place DC
Manufacturer
Manufacturer
Wholesale
Consignment/VMI
Cross dock
Concession
Pick up in store
Store replenishment
Online store replenishment
Pick up in store
Pick up at pick up point
Concession / shop in shop
Online store replenishment
Home delivery from online retailer
Direct delivery from product brand
From store to door/pick in store
From store to door/pick in store
Between stores
Store replenishment
Pick up at pick up point
Pick up at pick up point Home delivery from market place DC
Home delivery from small retailer
Wholesale
Private
label
Brand direct
(R)Etail /
Reseller
Market place
3D printing
Product brandEur. DC / Reg. DC
Retail Distribution center
Retail chain stores
Pick up points
Mono brand stores
Specialist store
Home
E-fullfilmentcenter (r)etailer(s)
E-fullfilmentcenter product brand(s)
Market place DC
Manufacturer
Manufacturer
Wholesale
Consignment/VMI
Cross dock
Concession
Pick up in store
Store replenishment
Online store replenishment
Pick up in store
Pick up at pick up point
Concession / shop in shop
Online store replenishment
Home delivery from online retailer
Direct delivery from product brand
From store to door/pick in store
From store to door/pick in store
Between stores
Store replenishment
Pick up at pick up point
Pick up at pick up point
Print shop
3d printing at home3d printing at print shop
Home delivery from market place DC
Home delivery from small retailer
Wholesale
C2C
Private
label
SUPPLY CHAIN & DELIVERY
Source: Shopping2020 Expert Group Purchasing & Supply Chain
© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 254254
The new norm: delivery for free where and when the consumer wantsHow do you charge delivery costs now and what is your expectation for the future?
12%
51%11%
26%
Bezorgkosten worden als apart item doorbelast in de bestelling.
Bezorging wordt geheel gratis aangeboden. De bezorgkosten zijn versleuteld in deverkoopprijs van het product.Een deel van de bezorgkosten wordt in rekening gebracht, een deel versleuteld in deverkoopprijs van het product.Bezorgkosten worden als apart item doorbelast, tenzij een minimum orderbedrag wordtbehaald waarna de bezorgkosten vervallen
21%
22%
11%
46%2014(n= 123)
(n= 113)2020
Source: Dutch GfK Shopping2020 Expert Study Nov. 2014 Vraag: Hoe verrekent uw bedrijf momenteel de bezorgkosten en hoe verwacht u dat dit in 2020 gebeurt? ((excl. Do not know)
SUPPLY CHAIN & DELIVERY
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Amazon and other giants set the standard with next & same day deliverySUPPLY CHAIN & DELIVERY
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Inventory management & transparancy and shorter delivery times towards consumers will have the biggest impact on the supply chain
Basis: alle respondenten uit bedrijven met online en/of
offline winkels (n= 164)
Source: Dutch GfK Shopping2020 Expert Study Nov. 2014. Question: to what extent is your business impacted by the following developments.
17%
37%
41%
33%
14%
13%
26%
26%
31%
20%
26%
24%
23%
22%
27%
44%
13%
10%
15%
40%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Alle voorraad beschikbaar en transparant voor alle kanalen(online en offline)
Off shore productie kosten stijgen
Off shore productie leadtimes belemmeren flexibiliteit
Geen standaardisatie in supply chains waardoor track &trace moeilijk is
Levertijden naar online klanten moet steeds korter
Geen invloed Enigszins invloed Redelijk wat invloed Veel invloed
SUPPLY CHAIN & DELIVERY
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Retailers will prefer to work with logistical intermediairies offering all possible delivery models
Basis: alle respondenten uit bedrijven met online
winkels die fysieke producten verkopen (n= 128)
20%
10%
15%
19%
17%
11%
26%
25%
21%
20%
37%
33%
15%
12%
21%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Fulfilment netwerken van retailplatformen met eigenvervoersoplossingen
Samenwerken met logistieke bemiddelaars die in opdrachtvan consumenten het vervoer regelen met koeriers
Samenwerken met logistieke bemiddelaars die iedereen(consumenten, taxi`s, koeriers) kunnen inschakelen om het
vervoer af te handelen voor de ontvanger
Zeer onwaarschijnlijk Onwaarschijnlijk Neutraal Waarschijnlijk Zeer waarschijnlijk
SUPPLY CHAIN & DELIVERY
Source: Dutch GfK Shopping2020 Expert Study Nov. 2014. Question: What is the (un)likelyhood your company will work with the following delivery models in 2020 (excl. Do not know)
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DHL is investing significantly in pick-up stationsIn Germany already 2.750 pick-up stations have been installed by DHL
SUPPLY CHAIN & DELIVERY
Source: Shopping2020 Expert Group Purchasing & Supply Chain
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Deliver is becoming ubiquitosThuisbezorgd.nl already delivers 1 million orders each month. Volvo offers car delivery.
SUPPLY CHAIN & DELIVERY
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Imagine global orchestrators will dominate the market
Global markets
Markets merely local
Dominant orchestrator / convergence of roles
Fragmented supply chain
Bolhalla
Local heroes
Amazonization
Global network economy
Scenarios 2020: Scenario planning results
SUPPLY CHAIN & DELIVERY
Source: Shopping2020 Expert Group Purchasing & Supply Chain
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1 hour delivery standard
Delivery times long
3D printing explodes
3D Printing remains niche
Printing at producer
Long tail / Make-To-Order at producer
Print in store/at home
Long tail / Assemble in store
Imagine 3D printing and 1 hour delivery become the new standardScenarios 2020: Scenario planning results
SUPPLY CHAIN & DELIVERY
Source: Shopping2020 Expert Group Purchasing & Supply Chain
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Imagine 1 hour delivery in a world with very few storesScenarios 2020: Scenario planning results
1 hour delivery standard
Delivery times long
Number of stores decreases significantly
Number of stores stabilizes
Drop shipments
Showrooms full of experience
City hubs
Pick (up) in store
SUPPLY CHAIN & DELIVERY
Source: Shopping2020 Expert Group Purchasing & Supply Chain
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WHAT’S NEXT?“It’s not the crisis, it’s not the web, it’s the consumer stupid.” Ed Peerenbolte
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In the next 7 years consumers will…
52
36
17
2020 – consumer expectation
2020 – expert opinion
2012
Buy up to 50%+ online
10
25-28
35-40
Market in billion €xx
Will share more products
Buy instantly & less in the (web)shop Buy more from international marketplaces
THE KEY FINDINGS
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Will Europe be following Austria’s footsteps?
85% of the e-commerce turnover in Austria is bought from (r)etailers of which
the head office is in another country.
WHAT'S NEXT
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What can we learn from the Scary Five?
Ultimate User Focus
New Business Models Speed!!!
WHAT'S NEXT
Think Big! Go X-Border
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Shopping2020 transformed from research to permanent programWHAT'S NEXT
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In 2015 Shopping2020 is transforming from program to platformHow can we solve a specific challenge in order to prepare ourselves fro the future?
Common vision(2013)
Conversion attribution
Creating social
awareness
The Last Mile
Shared Roadmap(2014)
2017
2018
2019
WHAT'S NEXT
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Are you a retail, finance or travel organization? Join us in 2015!
Just sent us an email.
RSVP [email protected]
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Questions? Want to participate? Please contact me!
Jorij Abraham
Director Research & Advice
M: +31 6 52 84 00 39