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My poster at the 2010 International System Dynamics Conference, Seoul.
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Rats, Black Swans, and Personal Careers an Investigation of “Go with the flow” and
“Deviate from common behaviour” Strategies
Andreas Andreas
80 % 20 %
Probability matching;
success rate: 68 %
A “didactic” system dynamics model
Rats left Rats right
Probability food
Food left Food right
Total foodtaken right
increase
food right
Total foodtaken left increase food left
PolicyGoingLeft
A “didactic” system dynamics model
Rats
going left going right
new rats
Individual rationality does not
100
75
50
units 5
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2
2
2
2
1
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Individual rationality does not
lead to high overall performance
50
25
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Time (Hour)
units
Total foot taken : RationalChoice100Rats 1 1 1 1 1
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Being different can be Total foot taken : RationalChoice100Rats 1 1 1 1 1
Total foot taken : ProbabilityMatching100Rats 2 2 2 2
Total foot taken : HalfHalf100Rats 3 3 3 3 3 3
Total foot taken : Extraordinary100Rats 4 4 4 4 4
Total foot taken : Adapting100Rats 5 5 5 5 5 5
0.02
-0.135
5 5 5
4
44
3 3 32
2 21 1 1 1
rats
Being different can be
quite successful (but is risky)
-0.29
-0.445
-0.6
0 10 20 30
units/rats
* Radboud University Nijmegen, The Netherlands, [email protected]
The trouble with
the rat race is that
even if you win,
you‘re still a rat
DifferenceAverages : RationalChoice100Rats
DifferenceAverages : ProbabilityMatching100Rats
DifferenceAverages : HalfHalf100Rats
DifferenceAverages : Extraordinary100Rats
DifferenceAverages : Adapting100Rats
* Radboud University Nijmegen, The Netherlands, [email protected] you‘re still a rat
-- Lily Tomlin
Rats, Black Swans, and Personal Careers –an Investigation of “Go with the flow” and
“Deviate from common behaviour” Strategies
Andreas Größler*Andreas Größler*
Inspiration:
Gigerenzer, 2007Gigerenzer, 2007
Brunswick, 1939
80 % 20 %80 % 20 %
Success rate:
still 68 % per rat
But: food is divided by
number of rats.still 68 % per rat number of rats.
If one rat goes to the right,
chances are low, but if food
is there, rat has it on its own.
Policies tested:
• Rational choice• Rational choice
• Probability matching
• Half-Half
• Extraordinary• Extraordinary
• Adaptation
Being different can be
Analogy to
• General strategy
• Investment policy
• Personal career
5 5 5 5 5
4
4 44 4
3 3 3 3 32 2 2 2 2 21 1 1 1 1 1
Being different can be
quite successful (but is risky)• Personal career
planning
• Focused factory vs.
“world class
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Time (Hour)
“world class
manufacturing”
University Nijmegen, The Netherlands, [email protected]
Time (Hour)
1 1 1 1
: ProbabilityMatching100Rats 2 2 2 2
3 3 3 3 3
4 4 4 4 4
5 5 5 5 5 5
University Nijmegen, The Netherlands, [email protected]
