Exploration Plays Resource Assessment and Portfolio Management

through use of Play Type assessment

Stig-Arne Kristoffersen

Outline of talk

Definitions

Why play type assessment?

Global use of play type in resource assessment

Goal and measures

About presenterStig-Arne Kristoffersen, www.lulu.com/stig

Bachelors Marketing Economywww.bh.linkedin.com/in/stigarne

PhD, Geophysics – Reservoir Characterization

25+ years international experience within the oil and gas industry

Corporate exec with substantial corporate experience.

Focus on knowledge based information within oil and gas industry

and energy contract drafting and asset negotiations.

Broad experience in all aspects of geosciences, telecom

and marketing/ sales management. Direct experience with energy business,

technical consulting and venture capital.

For a Starter - Definitionsa prospect is a singular trap feature or structure. a play type is a regional area of similar geological conditions that embraces a number of prospects. an unsuccessful prospect does not end the play type potential, but if any of the play type factors are zero then all prospects within this play type will be dry.geologic risking must be applied at two levels; the prospect level and the play type level. the assessment is based on geologic elements of a Total Petroleum System (TPS), including characterization of hydrocarbon source rocks (source-rock maturation, hydrocarbon generation and migration), reservoir rocks (sequence stratigraphy and petrophysical properties), geographic defined area, and hydrocarbon traps (trap formation, timing, and seals). Using these criteria, a stratigraphic confined Composite TPS for oil and gas resources is made, called play type or Assessment Unit (AU).Assessment unit (AU) is used by the USGS instead of Play types, but they are essentially identicalCommon risk segment (CRS) maps are established for each play in each basin. The CRS maps assist establishing the play risk. This is then followed by an assessment of the yet-to-find (YTF) potential in these plays.YTF can be determined by the area yield method is based on richness or yield estimation. The richness is the ultimate recoverable resources per area unit. A geological analogue reference area is used to provide an estimate of the richness. The reference area has to be representative of the play i.e. same reservoir, source rock and trapping mechanism and is a relatively well explored area. The richness is then applied to the assessment area, i.e. where the play is believed to work.YTF can also be determined by the field size distribution method is based on a more extensive knowledge of a play and requires an estimate of number of potential prospects, their size ranges and associated chance of success. The size ranges are established based on estimates of different parameters such as area of closure/trap and reservoir and fluid properties as well as known sizes of discoveries in the play. Estimates of trap densities are used to define the number of potential prospects.

Understanding Play Types – focus your exploration efforts

Why Play Type Assessment?

Focus exploration efforts – through active Portfolio Management

Assess exploration potential versus risk and play

Determine enter – exit strategies for various play types

Enable a better economic assessment based on play type complexities and areas (exploration cost of play type)

Historic and future play type volumetric profiles (creaming curve)

Amount of prospects per play type and region and their mean prospect sizes

Optimal Resource Management

Knowledge driven Analytical database ensure a focused Exploration

Global Use of Play type Assessment

Canada

U.S

Norway

West Africa

UK

Russia

Brazil

I will focus on the first 5 countries in this presentation

(Refer to separate presentation for the other countries)

Both mature and immature regions around the world benefits from play type analysis

Canada

Since the mid-90’s Canadian Authorities have implemented the use of Play types to perform resource assessment and to focus their exploration efforts, both onshore and offshore.

We present an example from Yukon Territory in Canada. Other areas in Canada are not covered in this presentation.

Play type analysis revitalized parts of Canadian exploration efforts

Yukon Oil and Gas Resource Assessment

Eagle Plain

Beaufort-Mackenzie Basin

Visualize the potential of all basins onshore and offshore Yukon territory

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2

9

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Yukon Oil and Gas Resource Assessment

http://www.emr.gov.yk.ca/oilandgas/oilgas_resource_assessments.html#Beaufort-Mackenzie_Basin_Oil_and_Gas_Resource_Assessment

An overall picture of the exploration potential in one go

U.S

Since the mid-90’s several efforts have been made to create an national database to assist the geoscientists and the decision makers to arrive at an efficient exploration strategy for the national oil and gas resources, both onshore and offshore.

These efforts enabled U.S authorities to establish;

• What play type has highest/ lowest potential versus risk profile within each region• What the total potential versus risk profile within each region

• What play types to enter and exit within each region and overall

• Overall potential for oil, gas and NGL within U.S territories, both onshore and offshore• Economic potential for each play type and region

Visualize the potential through the whole stratigraphy in all states

USGS 1995 Oil and Gas Assessmenthttp://energy.cr.usgs.gov/oilgas/noga/

1995.html

46 conventional and 3 unconventional play types within this province.

Both Text and GIS format data

USGS 1995 Oil and Gas AssessmentFocus Exploration Efforts fitting Your Exploration Strategy and risk

willingness Western Gulf Province (047)

http://energy.cr.usgs.gov/oilgas/noga/index.html

USGS 2007 Oil and Gas Assessment

USGS 2007 Oil and Gas AssessmentFocus Exploration Efforts fitting Your Exploration Strategy and risk

willingness

GULF COAST ASSESSMENT AREA

USGS 2007 Oil and Gas AssessmentFocus Exploration Efforts fitting Your Exploration Strategy and risk

willingness

Resource Assessment AlaskaExtract from Shell study done in 2006 – Conclusions and Summary

www-static.shell.com/static/usa/.../econanalysisofoffshoreogdevpt.pdf)

Norway

National Petroleum Directorate initiated a joint venture project with the oil and gas industry in late 1990. This effort has culminated in a web based portal for key exploration and production data. The key element in Norwegian authorities resource assessment has been the definition of play types along its offshore continental shelf areas.

Norwegian Authorities use the play type distribution analysis for strategic decisions on areas to explore to fulfill their targets of production set out in the objectives for Norwegian oil and gas production part within OPEC.

Resource Management through proper Portfolio Management

Norwayhttp://npd.no/en/Topics/Geology/Temaartikler/Geological-plays/

NorwayPlay type distribution enable Optimized Resource Management

NorwayPlay type distribution enable Optimized Resource Management

NorwayResource Management through thorough Play Type understanding

NorwayResource Management require understanding of resource classes

Norway• 33 of which have been confirmed by proving hydrocarbons• In the North Sea, where exploration has been taking place longer than elsewhere,

as many as 75% of the plays have been confirmed.• 9 of 20 have been confirmed in the Norwegian Sea• Only 6 of 23 plays in the Barents Sea have been confirmed. • 73 % of the estimate of the undiscovered resources is in confirmed plays

Plays can be defined in various ways. In every case, an assessment has to be made of how large an area and how much of the rock succession is to be included. The oil companies or others can present a different number of plays based on other methods or assessments of the geology. The plays may be of different sizes and have different estimates of resources.

There are defined 68 plays on the Norwegian continental shelf

NorwayPlay type distribution assist understanding risks and potential distribution

Norway

displays can be used to;• determine remaining potential for specific play types• make strategic decision when to enter and exit specific play types• identify where we are in evolution of play type based on creaming curve• high grade remaining opportunities and focus exploration program

When to enter and exit a Play type – based on history and future potentialMiddle Jurassic Play type – UK, Norway and

Denmark

Norway

UNCONVENTIONAL RESOURCES

Other deposits of oil and gas exist than those recovered in conventional oil and gas fields. These are often called unconventional petroleum resources, which denote petroleum that occurs naturally, independently of a traditional trap. Such resources can occur over large areas and, unlike conventional oil and gas fields, be independent of a geological structure. Examples are oil and gas shale, gas from hydrate, and oil and gas from coal, . Oil shale has been exploited for oil production for several centuries. Unconventional, as a concept, does not necessarily mean that it is something new or requires new technology; it just differs from conventional oil and gas fields. Unconventional petroleum resources may also cover petroleum that is manufactured industrially, for instance from coal.

Play type distribution assist understanding Unconventional resource potential

West Africa

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, there is estimated mean volumes of 71.7 billion barrels (BBO) of oil, 187.2 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of natural gas, and 10.9 billion barrels (BBOE) of natural gas liquids.

Goal was to assess the potential for undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and natural gas resources.

An assessment of four geologic provinces located along the northwest and west-central African coast and extending offshore to a water depth of 4,000 meters. From north to south, the provinces are: (1)the Senegal, containing the passive-marginal Senegal Basin of Middle Jurassic to

Holocene age

(2) the Gulf of Guinea, characterized by transform tectonics

(3) the Niger Delta, containing more than 9,100 meters of sediments

(4) the West-Central Coastal, containing the Aptian salt basin and dominated by both rift and sag tectonics including the Congo Basin.

Assessment of Undiscovered Hydrocarbon Resources of 4 West Africa Geologic Provinces

West AfricaAssessment of Undiscovered Hydrocarbon Resources of 4 West Africa Geologic Provinces

UKRegional Play Fairway evaluation of the UK Central North Sea

UK authorities have not followed the same open line as their Norwegian counterparts in the North Sea when it comes to Play overview and reporting. Therefore most information about the UK sector of North Sea and other areas of exploration in the UK is found in consultants reports.

One study I refer to is a study performed in the Central North Sea hydrocarbon province which offers a wide variety of plays, many of which are still under-explored.

Further exploration potential also remains in open and licensed acreage that has been only partially explored or not reviewed for a number of years. Continuing success has involved smaller discoveries and exploration for deeper and more subtle structural and stratigraphic traps.

Seventeen plays with proven hydrocarbon resources have been identified in the Palaeozoic to Tertiary section.

Play fairway maps were also produced to display the regional risk associated with each play.

UKRegional Play Fairway evaluation of the UK Central North Sea

17 plays with proven hydrocarbon resources have been identified in the Paleozoic to Tertiary section.

UKRegional Play Fairway evaluation of the UK Northern North Sea

The area contains the Viking Graben, East Shetland Basin, Beryl Embayment and East Shetland Platform. The Northern North Sea hydrocarbon province has been extensively explored and developed. However, exploration potential remains in open and licensed acreage that has been only partially explored or not reviewed for a number of years.

12 plays with proven hydrocarbon resources have been identified in the Triassic to Eocene section. Maps of reservoir, top seal and hydrocarbon charge distribution have been combined to produce play fairway maps which display the regional risk associated with each play.

UKRegional Play Fairway evaluation of the UK Northern North Sea

12 plays with proven hydrocarbon resources have been identified in the Triassic to Eocene section.

Integrated Play and Prospect Assessment

Integrated play and prospect assessment (Hood and Stabell, 2006) is designed to leverage the respective strengths of play-level assessment of Yet-To-Find (YTF) potential and more detailed prospect-level assessment of risks and resources. A successful marriage of the two approaches can maximize the application of both regional context and local detail. The combined approach provides a basis for more realistic and fit for purpose assessment of the value of concessions, blocks and areas of interest. When integrated in a common methodology and assessment framework, play assessment can provide a direct reality check of prospect assessment while anchoring regional assessments with data from calibration areas with mapped and assessed leads or prospects. Finally, the integrated approach provides a sound basis for learning from experience and rapid assimilation of new data as plays and prospects are matured and played out(Hood and Stabell, 2006). The foundation for integrated play-prospect assessment is a feature-based approach to play assessment where we consider both mapped and assessed features (prospects) as well as postulated features. Assessment of the YTF potential in postulated features requires consistent counting, sizing and risking of the features. The approach requires a common map-based (GIS) analysis framework where assessed and postulated features are positioned in their regional context. Integration of plays and prospects is based on using a common database with both play and prospect analyses. The analytical foundation is a flexible and comprehensive stochastic assessment engine. This engine is used to assess individual play and prospect units. It is also used to aggregate the assessments over play fairways, blocks, concessions or areas of interest -- while honoring all risk and volume dependencies. In this paper we present an application of the integrated play-prospect assessment methodology to a set of frontier plays in the North Falkland Basin. Current license holders have identified and assessed a number of relatively large potential accumulations in some of the plays in the basin. However, significant areas have very limited data. One of the main challenges for an integrated assessment of play and prospect potential is generating estimates of potential smaller fields that have not been counted systematically due to uneven and coarse data resolution. Another challenge is to capture the potential of stacked plays. The application presents how we can use effectively both analog data and data from small calibration areas in the basin.

Klaus Dittmers, GeoKnowledge (Norway)Per Audun Hole, GeoKnowledge (Norway)Charles Stabell, GeoKnowledge (Norway)

CRS and YTF – terms used to focus exploration efforts

The project was carried out to quantify the undiscovered resource potential. Areas with high prospectivity were documented and illustrated to increase our understanding of the exploration potential and help to focus our efforts.Common risk segment (CRS) maps were established for each play in each basin followed by an assessment of the yet-to-find (YTF) potential in these plays. This work provides a good technical foundation for future exploration.

In a first part, the workflow to create CRS maps will be illustrated. Six elements were assessed: the presence and quality of the reservoir, the presence of a source rock and the possible migration from the mature areas as well as the seal presence and integrity. An ArcGIS toolbox was developed to combine these different maps and build the total CRS map. The available data density and quality vary from basin to basin. The notion of confidence was integrated to show the resulting uncertainties.

The CRS maps are the basis for defining the YTF assessment areas. Depending on the available data and the geological knowledge, two alternative assessment methods were used for estimating the YTF potential.

The area yield method is based on richness or yield estimation. The richness is the ultimate recoverable resources per area unit. A geological analogue reference area is used to provide an estimate of the richness. The reference area has to be representative of the play i.e. same reservoir, source rock and trapping mechanism and is a relatively well explored area. The richness is then applied to the assessment area, i.e. where the play is believed to work. A basin will illustrate this method.

The field size distribution method is based on a more extensive knowledge of a play and requires an estimate of number of potential prospects, their size ranges and associated chance of success. The size ranges were established based on estimates of different parameters such as area of closure and reservoir and fluid properties as well as known sizes of discoveries in the play. Estimates of trap densities were used to define the number of potential prospects. Another basin will demonstrate this method.

Alexandra Cournot, StatoilHydro (Norway)Mustapha Zater, StatoilHydro (Norway)

Measures and Goals

active Portfolio Management

assess exploration potential versus risk and play

determine enter – exit strategies for various play types

enable a better economic assessment based on play type complexities and areas (exploration cost of play type)

historic and future play type volumetric profiles (creaming curve)

amount of prospects per play type and region and their mean prospect sizes

optimal Resource Management

Ensure a Focused Exploration