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Presenter:David J. AndersonCEO Lean Kanban
Inc.
Lean Kanban UKLondon
October 2013Release 1.0
Why Modern?Why now?
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Progressive but not Modern!
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Impressionism – a new beginning
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Newtonian physics was out and the era of Quantum Mechanics arrived
Werner Heisenberg
JamesClerk-Maxwell
Albert Einstein
Niels Bohr
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Drucker’s Challenge in 1999
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Where might a 50x improvement come from?
Delivered
Poolof
Ideas
F
H E
C A
I
Committed
ReadyFor
Delivery
GD
GYPB
DEMN
2 ∞
P1
AB
Lead Time
Ongoing
Development Testing
Done VerificationAcceptance3 3
Waiting Waiting WaitingWorking
* Hakan Forss, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2013** 2% reported by Zsolt Fabok, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2012
Working
∞∞
Flow efficiency measures the percentage of total lead time is spent actually adding value (or
knowledge) versus waitingFlow efficiency% = Work Time x 100%
Lead TimeFlow efficiencies of 1-5% are
commonly reported*, ** Multitasking means time spent in working columns is often waiting
time
Waiting
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We stand on the verge of a revolution in modern management
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Breakthroughs in Understanding humans
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The Quantum Era of Management
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New technologies enable a new form
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Social Capital Reaps Rewards
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The System & Environment Matter
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Presenter:David J. AndersonCEO Lean Kanban
Inc.
Lean Kanban UKLondon
October 2013Release 1.0
Kanbanand evolutionary management
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Bruce Lee’s Journey in Martial Arts
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Bruce Lee rejected traditional teaching and styles of Chinese martial arts
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Snake
Monkey
Mantis
Tiger
Kung Fu Panda simplified the art to only four styles
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There are in fact very many styles…
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“Dry land swimming” provides a false sense of capability
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Lee wanted to start from first principles and core concepts
*Apparently still called the Five Ways, there are actually now six **with the later inclusion of SAA**The fact that The Five Ways has six elements is evidence of evolution in action***Incorporated core ideas such as "center line" and single fluid motion from Wing Chun and parrying from Epee Fencing********Not a Chinese Martial Art and hence evidence of "no limitation as limitation"
Five* Ways of Attack***• Single Direct Attack (SDA)• Attack By Combination (ABC)• Progressive Indirect Attack
(PIA)• (Hand) Immobilization Attack
(HIA)• Attack by Drawing (ABD)• Single Angle Attack (SAA)
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Lee’s approach still needed a name
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Jeet Kune Do
Using no way as way
Having no limitation as limitation
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Jeet Kune Do encourages development of a uniquely personal style
"absorb that which is useful“
discard the remainder
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Training with an opponent provides the core feedback loop to drive adaptation
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Martial Arts viewed through a Cynefin* Lens
Simple
ComplicatedComplex
Chaotic
Best Practice
Good PracticesEmergent Practices
Novel PracticesIndividual
Kata
PatternedStyles
Jeet KuneDo
*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin
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Lee’s genius was recognizing hand-to-hand combat is an unordered problem
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Motivation for the Kanban Method
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Traditional Change is an A to B process
***either an internal process group or external consultants
CurrentProcess Future
Process
Defined
Designed
transition
* Value stream mapping, ** Theory of Constraints Thinking Processes
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Change initiatives fail (even) more often than projects
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Daniel Kahneman has given us a simple model for how we process information
Daniel Kahneman
System 1Sensory PerceptionPattern Matching
System 2Logical Inference
Engine
Learning byExperience
Learning from theory
FASTBut slow to learn
SLOWBut fast to learn
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How we process change…
Daniel Kahneman
Silicon-basedlife form
Carbon-basedlife form
I logically evaluate change using System 2
I adapt quickly
I feel change emotionally using System 1
I adapt slowly
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Adopting new processes challenges people psychologically & sociologically
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The Kanban Method…
*also known as "kanban" in Chinese and in Japanese when written with Chinese characters
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The Kanban Method is a new approach to improvement
Kanban is a
method
without methodology
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Water flows around the rock
“be like water”
the rock represents resistance
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Kanban should be like water*
* http://joecampbell.wordpress.com/2009/05/13/be-like-water/
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Principles behind the Kanban Method
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6 Practices Enable Process Evolution
The Kanban Method
VisualizeLimit Work-in-progressManage FlowMake Policies ExplicitImplement Feedback LoopsImprove Collaboratively, Evolve Experimentally
(using models & the scientific method)
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Start with what you do now
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Fitness criteria are metrics that measure observable external outcomes
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Net Promoter Score is a Fitness Evaluator but is it the only metric we need?
Steve Denning
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Net Promoter Score is a way of evaluating customer satisfaction
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The problem with Net Promoter Score is that it doesn’t tell you what to do!
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Can we be smarter by using better fitness criteria than NPS?
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If we order a pizza we know what we care about…
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If we need a medical procedure…
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Validate Fitness Criteria with real customers
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Which system is fitter?
5 10 15 20 25 30 40 45 55 65 More02468
101214
System A
Frequency
Lead Time (Days)
5 10 15 20 25 30 More0
5
10
15
20
25
30
System B
Frequency
Lead Time in Days
Mean 17 days Mean 12 days
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Measuring delivery against expectation
5 10 15 20 25 30 40 45 55 65 More02468
101214
System A
Frequency
Lead Time (Days)
-25 -20 -5 0 5 10 20 30 35 40 More0
2
4
6
8
10
12
System A
Frequency
Lead Time Expectation Spread (Days)
5 10 15 20 25 30 More0
5
10
15
20
25
30
System B
Frequency
Lead Time in Days
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 More05
1015202530354045
System B
Frequency
Lead Time Expectation Spread (Days)
Mean 17 days Mean 12 days
System B is clearly fitter!
System B delivers 5/7 within expectationsSystem A only delivers 3/7 within expectations
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Business Risks, Fitness Criteria & Classes of Service should all align
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Assessing fitness to pursue ashort Shelf-Life strategy
Short(days, weeks,
months)
Medium(months,quarters,1-2 years)
Long(years,
decades)
Lead T
ime
Short
Long
Deliv
ery
Business Agility
Reple
nis
hm
en
t
Frequent
Seldom
Frequent
Seldom
Pre
dic
tabili
ty
High
Low
Are our business agility &
predictability fit enough for our
strategy?
Kanban system dynamics
If we plan to pursue short shelf-life opportunities, we must measure predictability, lead time, replenishment & delivery frequency as fitness criteria. Expectations are set based on our chosen strategy to pursue short
shelf-life opportunities
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Evolutionary change has no defined end point
EvolvingProcess
Rollforward
Rollback
InitialProcess
Future process is emergent
EvaluateFitness
EvaluateFitness
EvaluateFitness
EvaluateFitness
EvaluateFitness
We don’t know the end-point but we do know our emergent
process is fitter!
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Kanban viewed through a Cynefin* Lens
Simple
ComplicatedComplex
Chaotic
Best Practice
Good PracticesEmergent Practices
Novel PracticesSimpleKanbanSystem
DeepKanbanSystem
KanbanMethod
*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin
Unordereddomains
Kanban systems alone aren’t enough in the unordered domain
Ordereddomains
EnlightenmentReductionistPhilosophy
Deterministic
NewtonianPhysics
PragmaticHolistic
Philosophy
Probabilitic
QuantumMechanics
Multiple work typesMultiple classes of service
disorder
Single work typeSingle class of service
KanbanMethod
NotApplicable
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Enabling Evolutionary Management
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Institutionalize feedback systems to enable evolutionary change
OperationsReview
SystemCapability
Review
StandupMeeting
manager to subordinate(s) (both 1-1 and 1-team)
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Disintermediate!Risks, fitness criteria & classes of service
should be explicit & transparent
OperationsReview
SystemCapability
Review
StandupMeeting
manager to subordinate(s) (both 1-1 and 1-team)
Expose risk, classes of service & fitness criteria
at all 3 levels of feedback
Lead timeQualityPredictability
Lead timeQualityPredictability
Lead timeQualityPredictability
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Is there room for improvement?
Delivered
Poolof
Ideas
F
H E
C A
I
Committed
ReadyFor
Delivery
GD
GYPB
DEMN
2 ∞
P1
AB
Lead Time
Ongoing
Development Testing
Done VerificationAcceptance3 3
Waiting Waiting WaitingWorking
* Hakan Forss, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2013** 2% reported by Zsolt Fabok, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2012
Working
∞∞
Flow efficiency measures the percentage of total lead time is spent actually adding value (or
knowledge) versus waitingFlow efficiency% = Work Time x 100%
Lead TimeFlow efficiencies of 1-5% are
commonly reported*, ** Multitasking means time spent in working columns is often waiting
time
Waiting
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Other metrics should only be used as input to models to drive improvement
http://www.klausleopold.com/2013/09/blocker-clusters-problems-are-not.html
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Know why you are using a metric!
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The future of creative knowledge work should be inspired by Bruce Lee & JKD
Train with live opponentsNo kata
No "dry land swimming“
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David Anderson is a thought leader in managing creative knowledge workers. He is CEO of Lean Kanban Inc. a business franchising training & events globally with a vision of sustainable evolutionary approaches for improved service delivery & management in creative 21st Century industries.
He has 30 years experience in the high technology industry starting with computer games in the early 1980’s. He has led software teams delivering superior productivity and quality using innovative methods at large firms such as Sprint and Motorola.
David is the pioneer of the Kanban Method an evolutionary approach to improved service delivery and better business agility. His latest book is, Lessons in Agile Management – On the Road to Kanban.
He founded Lean Kanban University, the education division of Lean Kanban Inc, a trade association of member firms & franchisees dedicated to assuring high quality Kanban training through a worldwide network of accredited trainers offering classes based on a defined and peer reviewed curriculum.
About
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The idea of Modern Management Methods was inspired by History of Modern Part 2 by Orchestral Maneuvers in the Dark.
Daniel S. Vacanti first suggested that the Kanban Method and related techniques of probabilistic forecasting, statistical methods, and both qualitative and quantitative risk management were creating a change in management methods of the same magnitude and of a similar nature to the shift from Newtonian physics to Quantum Mechanics.
Janice Linden-Reed assisted with photo editing for this presentation
Acknowledgements
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Joe Campbell first blogged about the similarity in philosophy between the Kanban Method and the teachings of Bruce Lee. He coined the phrase “Kanban should be like water”.
The data on slides 60 & 61 was provided by Raymond Keating of CME Group.
My approach to change was framed by an observation from Peter Senge, “People do not resist change, they resist being changed!” He intuited resistance was rooted in identity.
The Cynefin Framework & “Safe-to-fail Experiment” originated with Dave Snowden.
Steve Denning proposed NPS as the only metric that matters in his book, “Radical Management.”
Acknowledgements
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