Mobile Tsunami

The Upcoming Mobile Tsunami

Jason Grigsby, Co-Founder

http://cloudfour.com • http://userfirstweb.com • http://twitter.com/grigs/

Seven years later.

What’s Next?

3 Things that couldn’t be ignored:




3.3Billion

A mobile

phone for half

the planet.

3.3 Billion in Perspective

Source: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/01/putting_27_bill.html

http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2008/01/when-there-is-a.html

Mobile Phone Adoption Still Growing

• China Mobile has 317 million subscribers—more than U.S. population.

• China total market is half a billion users. They are adding 6 million subscribers per month.

• 28% of mobile phone owners have two or more subscriptions.

• Average for industrialized countries is over 100% subscriber rate, led by 140% subscriber rate for Hong Kong, Taiwan, Italy and Israel. (U.S. is at a paltry 80%)

• Percentage of younger phone users increasing. Normal for children under 10 years old to have a phone in Europe and Asia.

• Population grows by 3 people a second. 38 mobile devices a second.

Usage is Changing: No Longer Simply a Phone

0%

17.5%

35.0%

52.5%

70.0%

13-to-24 25-to-41 All

36%

47%

62%

24%29%

46%

Mar 2007 Oct 2007

20% say they view video content daily or almost daily

Source: http://www.wireless-watch.com/2008/01/02/americans-more-connected-online-says-deloitte-touche-study/

The 7th Mass Mediahttp://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/02/mobile_the_7th_.html

Flickr photos: http://www.flickr.com/photos/nitsrejk/126982680/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/roadsidepictures/

317559195/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/snurb/172039084/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/kt/249301268/ •

http://www.flickr.com/photos/simon_aughton/2178768452/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/lecates/454787692/ •

http://www.flickr.com/photos/gaetanlee/118885175/































It's the recreation of the

Internet, it's the recreation of

the PC story and it is before us

— and it is very likely it will

happen in the next year.

Eric Schmidt, Google CEO speaking at Davos, January 2008

Parallels to Early Internet Days

• Email is the most sought after feature. Businesses pushing smart phone adoption for employees.

• Fractured platform. Few standards. Fewer reliable.

• Proprietary development environments.

• Poor documentation.

• Return to browser wars.

• Radically changes many things including business plans, advertising, metrics, and development practices.

• No one knows the patterns for success (design, dev, or business)

Adoption of Internet

• In 1994, best estimates were 20 to 30 million people on the Internet. That is less that 1% of the world’s population at the time.

• Today, 12% of carrier revenue is data services and only 16% of users access the web on those devices once a month.

• 1994, 5% of people surveyed said that they were willing to pay fees for web access. 97% of people were using Mosiac and a text browser, Lynx was #2

• Late 1994, 18% using Netscape and 71% said they might pay depending on cost and quality.

The Hope for Mobile

What is the

likelihood of

exponential

growth for the

Internet on Mobile

Devices?

“The Mother of

all Markets.”

Dr. Eli Harai, San Disk

CEO, 2008

John Sculley, Apple

CEO, 1992

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E0CE5D9143AF93AA25754C0A964958260

Gopher, Mosaic, WAP, iPhone

Flickr photo by: http://www.flickr.com/photos/vixon/352427852/







8%4%

23%

65%

iPhone + iPod WinCE Symbian Hiptop

January 2008 Mobile Browser Stats

Source: www.netapplications.com

“It’s about usage. Not units”

• Number of queries on Google search from iPhones surpassed those from Symbian-based phones in the days after Christmas. Nokia’s Symbian-based phones are 40% of the market worldwide.

• German iPhone users consume 30 times more data.

• 95% of iPhone customers regularly surf the Internet. Data services revenue increased from $2.7 billion in 2005 to $6.9 billion in 2007.

• Google sees 50 times the number of searches using the iPhone than any other mobile device. They were so surprised, they asked their engineers to check the logs to make sure it was correct.

• This is why major companies, Google, Quicken, etc. are all launching iPhone-optimized services despite the iPhone’s 1% market share.

It’s Not All About the iPhone

The Pace of Innovation is Picking Up

• Google Android open mobile OS joins Limo. OHA formed

• AOL Open Mobile Platform

• Nokia buys Trolltech, Launches advertising network

• Microsoft buys Danger

• Yahoo Mobile Widgets, oneConnect Social Network

• iPhone SDK in this month

Carrier Landscape Changing

• Push for open networks. Commitment from Verizon for open network by end of 2008.

• New wireless spectrum bidding included openness requirements.

• Flat rate data plan options growing.

• iPhone opened doors for phone providers to push carriers to do things that they were unwilling to do in the past.

• Tremendous pressure on carriers because of 40% churn in subscribers.

Changing Business Models Already Beginning

• Free mobile network for 16 to 24 year olds in Europe

• Most di cult demographic to reach

• Exchange information and willingness to receive ads for free phone and text message usage

• Interactive advertising using SMS

• Resulting in 12 to 24% response rates versus direct mail and web advertising rates of < 1%.

For Developers and Designers

• Start reading and learning now

• Embrace the constraints

• Small screen, slower processors, slower network

• Lack of standards

• Fragmented development platforms

• Key decisions:

• On the deck vs. O the deck.

• What device classes will you support?

Embrace what is unique about mobile

•Personal

•In your pocket

•Always on and connected

•Identifiable

•Locatable

•Users on the go

Pick the right target audience.

Be willing to experiment.

MobilePortland.com