Learning From The Wind

January 11th, 2012Edinburgh

@fnauta

1. Golden Age wind power

2. Hippy wind power

3. Learning From The Wind

• Germany: >20% share

• Netherlands: <10%

• Denmark: > 25%

2010 Wind power share electricity production

1Golden Agewind power

God created the world, but the Dutch created Holland

2Hippy wind power

70'ies• Triggered by:

- Club of Rome

- Energy Crisis

• Three countries pioneered:

- Netherlands

- Denmark

- California

• Late followers: Germany, Germany, UK, China

• Germany: >20% share

• Netherlands: <10%

• Denmark: > 25%

2010 Wind power share electricity production

Germany

• 1988: First feed-in proposal got Germany into pilot mode: 100 MW wind + 1.000 Roofs PV

• 1991: Einspeizegezetz

• 1995: 1.100 MW Wind Power

• 1999: 100.000 Roofs

• 90's: 2 billion euros in public R&D

• 2005 > 50% installed world capacity

• 23 years of stable policy

Netherlands

• First to the party in 70'ies

• Policy commitment gone by start 80'ies

• Reestablished by mid 90'ies

• Gone around new millenium

• Policy commitment reestablished etc

• Currently: big plans for wind at sea

• 35 years of traffic light policy

Denmark

• Great funding for R&D and implementation

• Smart acquisition of Dutch & Califonian technology 80'ies

• World market share > 20%

• Industry > 3 billion revenue

• Wind power market share 2020 goal 50%

• 35 years of stable policy

Market share 2010

and RePower)

Learning From the Wind

• Right incentives

• Provided it's for the long term (> 20 years)

• Funding is automated: top-up tax

• Regulation low transactional costs

Markets outperform central planning by a mile

1

In Policy Matters, Politics Matter

• As ideology-free as possible

• BHAG: Big Hary Audacious Goal

• Visible results: landmark

• Smartly use policy windows

2

In Policy Matters, Politics Matter

2

In Policy Matters, Politics Matter

• As ideology-free as possible

• BHAG: Big Hary Audacious Goal

• Visible results: landmark

• Smartly use policy windows

2

Entrepreneurs make all the difference

• Startups coming up with great, high risk solutions

• Herman Scheer was a politician-entrepreneur

• The 10.001 owners of Middelgrunden Off Shore Wind Park are entrepreneurs

• Behind the scenes there are many entrepreneurial civil servants

➡ Make sure you find the market & policy context that is stable

3

As for the Dutch• In EU wind power expansion will be mainly at

sea

• EU market for off shore wind power projection: € 4 Billion in 2010 to € 20 Billion in 2020

Thank youfor your attention

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