The New World ofBusiness

FuturistStrategy advisorAuthor

@rossdawson

Taking diverging paths

-90%

-70%

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2008

US economy: Return on Assets

Top Quartile Bottom Quartile

Source: The Shift Index, Deloitte Center for the Edge

Not keeping pace

Leadership

Technology

Society

Structure

Work

Organizations

Technology

Information accelerates

Flickr credit: kainet

Connected world

Source: Internet World Stats, as of June 30, 2012

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Oceania

Middle East

Africa

Latin America

North America

Europe

Asia

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Internet usersPenetration

%

million

Wherever you go

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 800% 900% 1000%

ChinaRussia

BrazilGermany

NetherlandsFrance

CanadaUK

USAAustralia

JapanWorld

Source: Morgan Stanley, Informa

Mobile Internet – Penetration and Growth

3G Subscription Growth YoY

3G Penetration

3G Penetration

3G Subscription Growth YoY

Supercomputers in our hands

Machines become smarter

The rise of digital information

Source: IDC/ EMC

Data from inside

Source: IDC/ EMC

At your command

Seeing more

Thought interfaces

The rise of 3D printing

Society

Flickr credit: Calsidyrose

We expect

more

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

$0 ‐ $300 $300 ‐ $3,000 $3,000 ‐ $30,000 $30,000 ‐ $100,000 > $100,000

Million people

Annual income US$

Opportunity

Excellence

Timeliness

Choice

Design and beauty

Participation

Meaning

Flickr credit: monasosh

Power to the individual

Structure

Flickr credit: Visual Artist Frank Bonilla

Transaction costs slide

Flickr credit: Ssppeeeeddyy/

The modular economy

Matching demand and availability

Reinventing fashion

Sharing not owning

Using unused space

Flickr credit: noii’s

Payments anywhere

Work

Getting help to do work

Expertise can be anywhere

The diversity of crowds

“No matter who you are, most of the smartest people

work for someone else.”Bill Joy, Co-Founder, Sun Microsystems

Flickr credit: Andrew Morrell Photography

Open innovation

Complex cognitive tasks

Robots get better

Replacing human workers

Value vs. employment

Source: United Nations, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Knowledge workers supplanted

Polarization of work

Source: The Polarization of Job Opportunities in the U.S. Labor Market, David Autor

Humanization of work

Flickr credit: Dell

Open education

Organizations

How organizations really work

Ad-hoc networks

The two layers of organizations…Standardized

processes

Building unique organizations

The inside is the outside

Procter & Gamble asks for help

Information across boundaries

Distributed value creation

From companies to ecosystems

Layers of data

Open

Trusted

Proprietary

Data-driven organizations

Leadership

Flickr credit: Calsidyrose

The only way

you can control your destiny

is to be more flexible

than your environment

- The Law of Requisite Variety

Experimentation and learning

The lean startup loop

Governance for transformation

Benefits Risks/ Concerns Risks of NOT taking action

Productivity and efficiency

Productivity loss Reduced competitiveness

Staff satisfaction and engagement

Loss of control Harder to attracttalented staff

Access to information and processes

Information reliability

Fragmentation of information

Flexibility in work Systems security Unauthorized use of technology

Leadership

Technology

Society

Structure

Work

Organizations