IPSOS presentation to IABC Calgary March 19 2009

IABC/Calgary Luncheon - Turbulent Times and the Canadian Mindset

Tim MoroSenior Vice PresidentIpsos North America

March 19, 2009

2

The Small Print…

• Ipsos Reid has done no partisan polling for a political party since 1986…

• We do $170 million of market research in Canada of which 2% is for Governments (federal and provincial, all of which are on the public record)…

• We do $350 million of market research in North America and are part of the Ipsos group of market research companies spanning 45 countries with annual revenues in excess of $1.6 billion…

• We are the media agency of record of CanWest News and Global TV in Canada, The McClatchy News Company in the United States, and Reuters International…

• Our Calgary office – which is quickly approaching its 20th anniversary – provides full service research services through a local staff of 25 and the full resources of Ipsos North America.

Recession Through the Media Lens …

4

Its All About … Arrows

5

And About … Images

6

And, of course … Headlines

But What About Canadians?- Some important context for business

communicators

The Old & New Worlds of Communication*

*Acknowledgement to Neville Hobson. Presentation given to FEIEA 50 Conference, Brussels, Belgium October 2005

9

Influencers

Employees

Competitors

PartnersPress/Analysts

Prospects

Customers

Investors Potential employees

The Old World

MESSAGES

10

Influencers

Employees

Competitors

Press/Analysts

Prospects

Customers

Investors Potential employees

Partners

The New World

MESSAGES

11

Communication Approaches

New World Old WorldEngage & Participate Transmit

Advocate Preach

Influence & Persuade Command & Control

Informal & Conversational Formal & Instructive

Build Community Tell Your Audience

vs

Views on Corporations & Government

13

55%

49%

39%

Overall

Canada

US

“Major corporations are having a good influence on the way things are going in my country”

% Agree% Agree

74%

80%

82%

“Large companies have too much influence on the decisions of government”

High Singapore 87%Low France 28%

High Argentina & France 85%

Low Japan & Poland 57%

Overall

Canada

US

Continued …

North American & Global Views on Corporations

Survey respondents are the most involved population in each country defined by internet access, voting behavior, instigating political, economic and social discussions, signing petitions and purchasing based on

company’s ethical, social or environmental reputation. (n=1,000 adults in each country). Margin of error: ±3.1 percentage points per country. October 2007

14

58%

65%

55%

Overall

Canada

US

Survey respondents are the most involved population in each country defined by internet access, voting behavior, instigating political, economic and social discussions, signing petitions and purchasing based on company’s ethical,

social or environmental reputation. (n=1,000 adults in each country). Margin of error: ±3.1 percentage points per country. October 2007

“Government should have complete access to the private information of corporations doing business in their country”

72%

77%

67%

“Our government should be more aggressive in regulating the activities of national and multinational corporations”

High Turkey 80%Low Poland 30%

High Mexico 86%Low Japan 42%

Overall

Canada

US

North American & Global Views on Corporations continued

% Agree% Agree

A Global Perspective on the Economy

1616

Methodology

• Global @dvisor Semi annual study fielded in April & November.• N = 1,000 completes per country.• 95% confidence level, +/- 3.1% margin of error.• 75% of world’s GDP covered:

– US, Canada, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, South Korea, China, Japan, Australia, Russia, India, Czech Republic, Poland, Turkey,Sweden, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and Great Britain.

• Internet Representation balanced by age, gender, city population, and education levels, with minor added weights applied.

• Sample audience is global elites known as the “Intelligaged™”– Upper 1/3 income with a college level degree

22,000 online surveys. 22 countries.

•Intelligaged™ is a trademark used by Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs, Inc. ("Ipsos Public Affairs") and shall not be reproduced or used in any manner without the prior written consent of Ipsos Public Affairs.

1717

Economic MeltdownAverage of all countries

A3. Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [INSERT COUNTRY]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?

(Very Good + Somewhat Good)

43%

31%

54%

55%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Nov-08

1818

Economic Meltdown All drop except LATAM; Canadians really come back to earth

A3. Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [INSERT COUNTRY]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?

(Describe Economy as Very Good + Somewhat Good)

35%40%

19%

11%

62%

48%

32%

53%

39%

48%

32%

22%

70%

56%

45%34%38%

47%

61%

30%

50%51%

71% 72%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Nov-08LATAM USA APAC European Union G-8 Countries Bric

48%

80%

87%

68%

BRIC = key emerging markets of Brazil, Russia, India, China

1919

Household Spending - % Cutting Back

72%87%

84%

84%83%

81%80%

80%77%

76%76%

75%75%

73%73%

70%70%

68%68%

59%59%

TotalSouth Korea

ArgentinaTurkey

MexicoFranceChina

The United States

Great BritainBrazilIndia

AustraliaItaly

RussiaJapan

CanadaBelgium

PolandSpain

The Czech RepublicGermany

J3. Given the current state of the global economy, have you and your family had to cut back on your household spending recently?

2020

Specific Cut BacksAverage of all countries vs Canada

76%

73%

72%

59%

53%

47%

41%

33%

23%

11%

81%

79%

78%

61%

61%

60%

48%

27%

25%

6%

Entertainment

Vacations

Luxury items

Clothing

Energy consumption

Gasoline/driving

Groceries

Cell Phone

Cable TV

Education

All CountriesCanada

J4. What are the specific things that you and your family are cutting back on these days? Base: respondents who have cut back in J3

US Issues

22

American Public Policy Issues: 2005 - 2009

Tracking the US National Issue Agenda

% February2009

April 2008

January2008

April2007

January2007

Apr2006

January2006

Apr2005

Economy 76

7

11

1

-

3

1

-

-

4

39 20 6 13 14 18 19

War/Foreign affairs 25 40 47 48 47 36 32

Domestic issues (NET) 25 28 31 28 29 37 40

Political leaders 5 5 6 9 8 12 5

Energy crisis 4 3 5 0 6 4 5

Morality 7 5 7 5 6 7 8

Education 2 3 1 2 1 1 3

Crime/Drugs - 2 3 4 2 3 2

Environment - 1 3 3 1 1 1

Other domestic issues 8 8 6 4 6 9 16

23

Trendlines In the US National Issue Agenda

76%

44%39%

20%15%

9%6%

13%9%

14%14%18%

24%28%

19%

7%

15%

25%

40%42%

49%47%48%44%42%

47%

36%35%40%

32%

11%

34%

25%28%

33%29%31%

28%31%29%29%

37%33%

26%

40%

Feb'09

Jul'08

Apr'08

Jan'08

Oct'07

Jul'07

Apr'07

Jan'07

Oct'06

Jul'06

Apr'06

Jan'06

Oct'05

Jul'05

Apr'05

Economy (Net) Foreign Affairs (Net) Domestic Issues (Net)

“American Public Policy Issues: 2005 - 2009

Budget 2009 - Fielded January 27-29, 2009

25

Overall Views on the Budget

Based on what you have seen, read or heard, would you say that the budget, overall, is:

Base: N=1.027 MOE +/- 3.1 percentage points Fielded Jan 27 – 29, 2009

24%

18%

58%

27%

17%

56%

22%

12%

65%

25%

13%

63%

32%

18%

50%

11%

23%

66%

16%

19%

65%

Total (n=1027)BC (n=146)AB (n=95)SK/MB (n=74)ONT (n=363)QC (n=265)ATL (n=84)

Good and you'd symbolically give it two thumbs up

Bad and you'd symbolically give it two thumbs down

Neither good nor bad and you'd symbolically just

shrug your shoulders

26

Perceived Personal Impact of the Budget

Based on what you have seen, read or heard about the budget, do you think this budget…


23%

7%

51%

19%

22%

8%

51%

19%

26%

6%

38%

30%

24%

5%

47%

24%

26%

7%

46%

21%

15%

5%

67%

13%

27%

9%

49%

15%


Will personally help you

Will personally hurt you

Neither

Don't know/Refused

27

Tax Cuts – How Would You Spend the Money?

One of the things in the budget announced Tuesday is a tax cut. Say that the tax cut worked out to be $1,000 for you and your family, which of the following would you spend it on:


49%

26%

13%

7%

6%

12%

Pay down debt and credit cards

Putting money into savings

Putting money into tax-sheltered vehicles like RRSP's, RESP's,

new savings accounts

Spend on a big ticket item like a car or appliance

Put it towards or buy a house

None of the above

28

Do you agree that …

Agree Summary table (strongly/somewhat agree)


61%

32%

53%

39%

51%

1) The Harper Government is committed to doing what it takes to get Canada's

economy back on track

2) This budget gives me the confidence to start spending again

3) The size of the deficit announced Tuesday shows that the Harper government doesn’t

know what it's doing when it comes to managing spending

4) The opposition coalition would have presented a better budget for these tough

economic times than theHarper government has

5) Helps the people most vulnerable to the current economic situation

2009 Housing Market Outlook Study - Fielded January 6-9, 2009

30

Tracking Views On Housing as an Investment

82%85%

90%90%87%85%86%84%79%77%

72%76%

17%15%10%10%12%13%12%14%

17%17%

25%19%

200920082007200620052004200320022001200019991998

Very good/Good investment Not a very good/Not a good investment at all

“Do you feel that buying a house or condominium is currently a very good investment, a good investment, not a very good investment, or not a good investment at all?”

2009: 2026 respondents; 2008: 3023 respondents; 2007: 2404 respondents; 2006: 2158 Respondents; 2005: 2,001 Respondents; 2004: 2,000 Respondents; 2002 & 2003: 1,500 Respondents; Previous years: 1,200 Respondents

31

48%52%52%

48%

58%

42%

Buy now Wait until next year

2009 2008 2007

Do you think it makes more sense to buy a house now, or wait until next year?

The Best Time to Buy A Home

2009: 2026 Respondents; 2008: 3023 Respondents; 2007: 2404 Respondents

Views On the Local Economy, Jobs & Personal Finances

February 2009

33

Weaker Same Stronger

Somewhat weaker Much weaker

11%

5%

22%

22%

33%

27% 9%

6%

6%

7%

15%

1

Much stronger Somewhat stronger

Views On the Local Economy - Today

“Compared to six months ago, do you feel that your local economy is stronger or weaker today?”

Feb ‘0954%

Jan ‘0959%

Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009

% Weak

BC AB SK/MB

ON QUE ATL

Feb ‘09 31% 29% 18% 54% 29% 42%

34


6%

23%

25%

26%

31%

3 19%

14%

21%

16%2

2


“Six months from now, do you feel the economy in your local area will be stronger or weaker?”

Views On the Local Economy – In Six Months

Weaker

Feb ‘0954%

Jan ‘0951%

Same


Stronger

% Strong

BC AB SK/MB ON QUE ATL

Feb ‘09 21% 27% 15% 24% 12% 24%

Jan ‘09 14% 17% 18% 18% 11% 27%

NET +7 +10 -3 +5 +1 -3

35

46%

54%

8%

29%

“Compared to six months ago, are you more confident about your job security for you, your family, or for others?”

Perceived Job Security

Less Confident

Feb ‘09

Jan ‘09


More Confident

% More Confident


Feb ‘09 8% 13% 9% 9% 6% 7%Jan ‘09 21% 34% 41% 23% 36% 29%

NET -13 -21 -32 -14 -30 -22

36

Job Loss Anxiety

26

3532

25

2119

21 2219 18 17 17 16 15 16 16

14

17 17 16 15

18

14

1820 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990

1993

1995

1997

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Feb 05May

05Sep

05Feb 06Nov 0

6Apr 0

7Aug 07Ja

n 08Feb 08Apr 0

8May

08Aug 08

Sept/O

ct 08

Nov '08

Jan '0

9Feb '0

9(P

erce

ntag

e of r

espo

nden

ts)

All Canadians


All Canadians

“Are you, or is anyone in your household worried about losing their job or being laid off?”

37

Job Loss Anxiety – By Region

18% (+4)

21% (+8)

7%

(-9) 27%

(-4)

10% (-2)

22% (+7)


“Are you, or is anyone in your household worried about losing their job or being laid off?”

38

Your Current Personal Financial Situation


17%

26% 50%

34%

22%

50%

Stronger Stable Weaker

Feb ’09

Jan ‘09

% Stronger


Feb ‘09 14% 22% 12% 16% 18% 12%

Jan ‘09 25% 32% 20% 22% 29% 28%

NET -11 -10 -8 -6 -11 -16

“Compared to six months ago, is your personal financial situation …?”

39


Same Stronger

Your Personal Financial Situation – In Six Months


8%

8%

9%

10% 2

1

5%

30%

19%

35%

24%

9%


“Do you feel that six months from now, your financial situation will be stronger or weaker?”

Weaker

Feb ‘0955%

Jan ‘0966%

% Stronger


Feb ‘09 38% 46% 39% 40% 24% 22%

Jan ‘09 23% 26% 17% 30% 18% 19%

NET +15 +20 +22 +10 +6 +2

40

Comfort In Making Major Household Purchases


“Compared to six months ago, are you comfortable in making major household purchases such as a home or a car?”

10%

21% 18%

48%

60%

41%

More Comfortable No Change Less Comfortable

Feb ’09

Jan ‘09

% More Comfortable


Feb ‘09 9% 15% 7% 10% 10% 12%

Jan ‘09 17% 25% 25% 20% 24% 17%

NET -8 -10 -18 -10 -14 -5

41

Confidence In Investing


“Compared to six months ago, are you confident to invest for the future, save money for retirement/children's education, etc?”

10%

28% 13%

51%

55%

39%

More Confident No Change Less Confident

Feb ’09

Jan ‘09

% More Confident


Feb ‘09 13% 13% 10% 10% 6% 11%

Jan ‘09 33% 32% 29% 25% 31% 23%

NET -20 -19 -19 -15 -25 -12

42

Time to Invest in the Stock Market?


65%

64%

31%

35%

No

Feb ‘09

Jan ‘09

Yes

% Yes


Feb ‘09 40% 47% 30% 36% 26% 32%

Climate Change & The Economy - Fielded February 17 – 23, 2009

44

Desired Timing of Action on Climate Change

To what extent do you agree with the following statement:“Serious action on climate change should wait until the recession is behind us.”

Base N=1,003 Margin of Error +1 – 3.1 percentage points Fielded Fed 17 to 23, 2009

13%

32%

34%

21%

12%

27%

43%

18%

20%

37%

32%

11%

8%

36%

34%

21%

14%

33%

32%

20%

10%

32%

32%

25%

12%

21%

39%

28%


Strongly agree

Somewhat agree

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

% Disagree:•Total: 55%•BC: 61%•AB: 43%•SK/MB: 56%•ONT: 52%•QC: 57%•ATL: 67%

45

Climate Change Vs. Higher Deficits

To what extent do you agree with the following statement:“Canada should take serious action on climate change right now, even it if means higher deficits.”


19%

37%

31%

12%

16%

36%

29%

18%

11%

31%

38%

20%

25%

27%

34%

15%

18%

37%

33%

12%

21%

44%

29%

6%

30%

38%

24%

8%


Strongly agree

Somewhat agree

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

% Agree:•Total: 57%•BC: 53%•AB: 42%•SK/MB: 52%•ONT: 55%•QC: 65%•ATL: 68%

46

Climate Change Vs. Jobs

To what extent do you agree with the following statement:“It is more important for the Canadian government to focus on jobs than climate change at the moment.”


30%

42%

21%

8%

34%

41%

16%

9%

33%

48%

13%

7%

27%

39%

24%

10%

32%

42%

19%

6%

26%

40%

25%

9%

16%

42%

33%

9%


Strongly agree

Somewhat agree

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree


47

Economic Stimulus & the Environment

To what extent do you agree with the following statement:“The Canadian government should only adopt economic stimulus measures that are environmentally sustainable.”


23%

49%

22%

6%

21%

44%

27%

8%

18%

44%

29%

9%

26%

41%

32%

1%

19%

53%

22%

6%

30%

51%

14%

5%

32%

51%

10%

7%


Strongly agree

Somewhat agree

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree


Canadian Federal Politics - Fielded Feb 24 – March 5, 2009

49

Federal Voting Intention

Thinking of how you feel right now, if a FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties’ candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support

Base: Decided voters – Leaners included – N=1,735 MOE +/- 2.4 percentage points

37%

33%

12%

10%

8%

70%

15%

10%

6%

National (N=2,002)Alberta (N=182)

The Conservative Party

The Liberals

The New Democratic Party

The Bloc Quebecois

The Green party

n/a

50

Tracking Federal Voting Intentions

Federal Party Support

Conservative Liberal

October 14, 2008– Election Results

37.65%= 143 seats

26.26% = 77 seats

December 2 – 3, 2008 46% 23%

January 6 – 8, 2009 39% 28%

February 3 – 5, 2009 37% 31%

February 24 – March 5 37% 33%

From the Perspective of Employees

52

Concern & Absent Communications

• The Ipsos Better Workplace Syndicated Study was fielded in January 2009. A sample of 1,100 employees across Canada told us about their workplace, job security, career goals and overall wellness at work.

• Key findings of the study include: – 24% said their employer has or had plans to lay off staff– 50% had received no communications from their employer about the

issue of job security / layoffs etc– 45% who did receive some communication said that it was not

effective

• Effective communication is a cornerstone of employee loyalty andengagement. For many organizations, these findings do not bode well for their efforts to attract and retain the best, brightest and most effective staff.

Some Thoughts & Observations

54


Canadians are sending very mixed messages … but there are some keys forbusiness communicators to remember:• Participation, engagement & building community are requirements for

success in the new media ecosystem. These requirements have notchanged and will only grow in importance.

• Canadians believe that corporations have too much influence and that greater transparency and regulation should be imposed on their activities. It is likely that these views have or will grow stronger and become greater challenges to corporate communications.

• As the ‘hewers of wood’ and suppliers of energy to the world, global and US public opinion suggests that our economic circumstances will continue to deteriorate. But Canada has what the world wants and needs. Our recovery be among the most rapid.

55


• Many Canadians expect improvement in their local economy and personal financial situations, but nonetheless have told us that they intend to keep their wallets closed.

• There are causes for optimism - relatively low job anxiety, positive views on homes being good investments, a majority (55% in January) believing that Canada is on the right track - however the ‘paradox of thrift’ remains strongly in place.

• Emotion and psychology are critical determinants. Positive leadership and effective messages can make a significant difference to the economic behavior of Canadian businesses and citizens. There is clearly room for improvement in this regard.

• The months ahead are certain to be difficult. Nonetheless a steadfast commitment to effective communication (inform, educate, advocate) and relationship building is required to build / reinforce the foundation for the turnaround when it comes.

Closing With Some Irreverent Data for Communicators

57

Most Trusted Professions

87%85%

79%73%

52%42%

40%40%40%

36%

27%21%

10%9%

89%77%

57%49%

45%25%

16%24%

18%17%

12%11%

7%7%

94%Firefighters

Nurses

Doctors

Teachers

The Police

Accountants

Plumbers

Pollsters

Chiropractors

Financial Advisors

TV and Radio Personalities

Lawyers

The Press

CEOs

Car Salespeople

National Politicians

Extremely Trustworthy (6, 7) Trustworthy (5, 6, 7)

29

58

From Canadian Teens - Level of Coolness

58%

35%

6%

1%

36%

40%

9%

15%

MomDad

Cool

In between

Uncool

Don’t know

“How cool is your [mom/dad] on a scale of one to ten?”

Ipsos Reid Canadian Teens Panel May / June 2004

59

From Canadian Teens - Performance on Sex Ed

Ipsos Reid Canadian Teens Panel May / June 2004

22%

32%

20%

7%

2%

16%

7%

16%

15%

8%

6%

34%

MomDad

Excellent

Pretty good

Satisfactory

Could have done better

Hopeless

Has not explained sex to me at all

“How did you find your [mom’s/dad’s] attempts to explain sex to you?”

60

The Question “Why?”

“How do you answer your child aged 2 to 5 when he/she asks “Why?” about something you don’t know the answer to?”

14%

12%

64%

4%

3%

I tell him/her I don't know

I tell him/her I don't know and will try to find the answer on my own

I tell him/her I don't know and we try to find the answer together

I make up an answer

I know the answer to everything

Base: Canadian adults N=1,09 Margin of error: ±3.0 percentage points March 2007

www.ipsos.caTim Moro

Senior Vice [email protected]

403-294-7379

Jamie DuncanAssociate Vice President

[email protected]

Business

IPSOS presentation to IABC Calgary March 19 2009