How to Spot and Cope with Emerging Transitions in Complex Systems for Organizational Stability

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How to Spot and Cope with Emerging Transitions in

Complex Systems for Organizational Stability

A Complimentary Webinar from Aurora WDC

12:00 Noon Eastern /// Wednesday 20 March 2013

~ featuring ~

Eric Garland Dr. Craig Fleisher



α Use the Questions pane on your GoToWebinar control panel and all questions will be answered in the second half of the hour.

α You are welcome to tweet any comments on Twitter where we are monitoring the hashtag #IntelCollab or eavesdrop via http://tweetchat.com/room/IntelCollab

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Questions, Commentary & Content

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Eric Garland

Author, analyst, curmudgeon

Eric Garland works with leaders about how to manage big changes to the global economy. He also plays bass.

Connect with Eric via:Twitter: @ericgarlandWeb: http://www.ericgarland.coWeb: http://www.transitionistas.comFacebook: http://www.facebook.com/EricGarlandFutureEmail: [email protected]

The Intelligence Collaborative is the online learning and networking community powered by Aurora WDC, our clients, partners and other friends and dedicated to exploring how to apply intelligence methods to solve real-world business problems.

Apply for a free 30-day trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com or learn more about Aurora at http://AuroraWDC.com – see you next time!

http://www.ericgarland.co/

http://www.ericgarland.co/



http://aurorawdc.com/

http://aurorawdc.com/



AGENDA

n Defining “The Transition” and why it is changing intelligence so radically

n Suggested tools for advanced organizational understanding

n Q&A



MANAGING THE POST-GROWTH ERAn One of the biggest problems in our managerial

environment is a secular end to the growth of consumption in our economies



MANAGING THE POST-GROWTH ERA



MANAGING THE POST-GROWTH ERA



Intelligence: Then and now

n We understand the narrative, we misunderstand the details

Narrative: Economic growth, globalization Details (unknown): Individual competitors

n We understand (some) details, we misunderstand the narrative

Details: competitor behavior that looks similar Narrative: ??? Post-growth? Knowledge economy?

Singularity? Yard sales? What?



INTELLECTUAL ENVIRONMENT

n The shock from this economic change has a significant intellectual impact – a Crisis of Authority

To whom should we listen, and why? Who can predict accurately – and should we

base major decisions on their speculation?n Old problem: paucity of informationn New problem: paucity of analysis



AUTHORITIES AT WORK



AUTHORITIES AT WORK



AUTHORITIES AT WORK



AUTHORITARIAN INTELLIGENCE

n The age of authoritarian intelligence was predicated on STABILITYAssumed non-stop growth (except for business cycle

recessions)Assumed “best practices” that could be applied across

industries and companies of all types

n Last Gen intelligence was based on institutional authorityOne intelligence source with “executive buy-in”Reporting structure made to look like media authorities



LAST GEN INTELLIGENCE FAILS

n They say “nobody could see it coming” because of failure of structure, not of analysis in general

n Last Gen analysis fails at several levelsModels are built around 1980s competition and 1990s

risk (“competitors” and “disruption”)Reporting structures have insufficient authority to drive

decision making through “brute force”Bureacracies designed to insulate people from failure,

not sensitize them to failure



NEXT GENERATION ANALYSIS

n The next generation of intelligence must drive companies to manage the emergence of opportunities and threats in a complex, dynamic system

n Next Gen Analysis will requirePost-authoritarian viewPeer to peer structureOne-size-fits-oneIterative metrics – constant analysis of “is this

driving value?”Accountability, not blame



BROAD THINKING STILL RULES

n Threats and opportunities continue to come from disruptions not typically included in Porterian competitive models

n GOOD OL’ STEEP:Social: changing consumer values, generational differencesTechnological: product substitutions (This is still Porter!)Economics: Wealth inequality, wage suppression, systemic

breakdown (Europe, Japan, U.S.)Ecological: unpredictable climate scenarios (New York underwater,

etc.)Politics: Unrest (Arab Spring), policy shifts (Estonia, Haiti),

geopolitical tension (Iran, Pakistan, Central Asia)



FORGET AUTHORITY, CHERISH THE ANALYST



TRACK DISRUPTIONS BEYOND THE “NEWS CYCLE”



DEBATES TRUMP REPORTS

WRONG WRONG, BUT MIGHT GET LESS WRONG

OVER TIME



VALUE DRIVEN INTELLIGENCE STRUCTURE

CEO

INTEL

CIOMarketing

Design

Consultants

CEO

All the timeWhen you need to add value

to a specific project



α Use the Questions pane on your GoToWebinar control panel and all questions will be answered in the second half of the hour.

α You are welcome to tweet any comments on Twitter where we are monitoring the hashtag #IntelCollab or eavesdrop via http://tweetchat.com/room/IntelCollab

α Slides will be available after the webinar for embedding and sharing viahttp://slideshare.net/IntelCollab

α To view the recording and download the PPT file, please register for a trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com.

Questions, Commentary & Content









Business

How to Spot and Cope with Emerging Transitions in Complex Systems for Organizational Stability