How BE shapes decision-making

ORHow I bought a new set of Christmas tree

lights

Joanna ChrzanowskaFMRS

Notice that a symbolic, social and cultural context frames my decision

I want to celebrate Christmas because I believe in it, its an important social occasion, and I want to do it in a style of which others will approve

Notice that a symbolic, social and cultural context frames my decision

I DO NOT want over the top bad taste as I feel it is of a lower class than the one I aspire to.

I therefore decide I will buy only warm white lights for my Christmas tree and will avoid icicles and reindeer.

However I will put the tree in the window where it can be seen from the outside.

My problem:

I last bought them 10 years ago and now large sections don’t work. I need some new lights for the Christmas tree.

Where do I start looking and why?• Impressions formed

without conscious awareness prime feelings and create familiarity bias

• Repeated impressions create validity bias

Looks like Homebase is the place to go. I’ll try Amazon too.

• Authority/ social proof“ I got mine from the Garden Centre on the A24” (posh neighbour)Read somewhere that Homebase sold more lights than any other retailer last Christmas

• Confirmation bias – choose info that fits with what you already know

Homebase will probably be cheaper – that garden centre is usually overpriced ( and I hate the A24)

• Ambiguity aversion Look on Amazon and cannot work out why prices vary so much for 200 lights – I am missing some information about quality, so I give up. The reviews are mixed positive and negative.

• In-groupI check the reviews trying to work out if there is anyone who has the same needs and criteria as I have. I would trust those reviews more.

Saw last year

Driving by

Advertising

Get a delivery from Amazon

How am I choosing in the shop? (1)

Availability bias I suddenly decide I must have LED lights because there is a cool kitchen display

FramingI learn from reading a box that LED lights never need replacing so my purchase turns from a distress purchase to an ‘investment’.

Anchoring 240 warm white lights are £60!!!! I was thinking they would be about £20… I am sure I never paid more than that.

Loss aversion I need two sets so if I spend £120 I can’t afford my new party dress

Sunk cost effect But I already bought a new tree last year so I can’t have a tree with no lights

Poor affective forecasts

How will I feel going to the party in an old dress? Will that be worse than having old rubbish lights on my tree? I can’t decide.

How am I choosing in the shop? (2)Choice Bracketing

Why am I looking only at warm white LED lights? I could get old fashioned fairy lights…. It’s what I had before. I have two choices.

Choice Architecture

Wait a minute! A pack of 480 light on the bottom of the shelf is half price – so I can get the equivalent of two packs for only £60!

Choice Paralysis

No they are all half price today- I just saw the sign. I was too focused on getting warm white instead of bright white. So I could get two packs of 240 or even 4 packs of 160 which would give me even more lights for not much more money. Or would it? I can’t work it out. Damn, I’m stuck. Is it better to have separate strings of lights in case one fails or easier to have one big one?

Cognitive depletion My brain hurts and I’m fed up of staring at this fixture.

Common heuristics

I don’t do satisfycing – the first satisfactory alternative. I always worry there might have been a better one. I don’t maxi-min – minimise unfavourable consequences. I am positive so I usually maxi-max, choose the one with most advantages. But today I’m optimising: I will get two packs to give me some flexibility but not 4 x 160s as that might be a hassle with too many plugs.

After my purchase

Cognitive dissonance

Oops – I spent some of my party dress budget! Not clever. But I am sure nobody will remember what I wore last year, and if I have a different top on, it will be alright.

Endowment effect

Considering I have a full and perfect set of lights for my tree that I will never need to replace I reckon they are worth about £100

Self-consistency

I’ve always had classy lights on my tree. My daughter must be mistaken in remembering a set of multi-coloured chasing lights…

Egocentricity Everyone who comes to the house will think my tree is the best and most stylish. I think I am a good shopper.

Attribution error

The neighbour who criticised my tree last year has always been jealous of me. She is a very jealous person and can’t stand to see anyone do better than she has. I don’t think her being drunk at the time had anything to do with it.

Reciprocity She’s invited us over for cocktails so we’ll have to invite them back.

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• Availability bias• Framing• Anchoring• Loss aversion• Sunk cost effect• Poor affective forecasts• Choice architecture and

Bracketing• Possibility of Choice Paralysis• Cognitive depletion• Common heuristics

• Cognitive dissonance• Endowment effect• Self-consistency• Egocentricity• Attribution error• Reciprocity

Summary of the biases and effects

• Impressions formed without conscious awareness prime feelings and create familiarity bias

• Validity bias• Authority/ social proof• Confirmation bias• Ambiguity aversion• In-group bias

Before During After