How We Used Data to Win the Presidential Election

Dan Siroker

dan@siroker.com

Barack Obama

David Plouffe

Communications Finance

Operations

New Media Paid Media

PolicyFieldCorrespondence...

AnalyticsEmail Blog VideoDesign OrganizingMarketing

Results

Other (1%)1,865,617

McCain (46%)59,934,814

Obama (53%)69,456,897

Popular Vote

Source: Federal Election Commission

McCain173

Obama365

Electoral Vote

Source: Facebook, YouTube, and Google Trends

0

20

40

60

80

100

YouTube Video Views

McCain Obama

0

0.6

1.2

1.8

2.4

3

Facebook Friends0

30

60

90

120

150

Unique Website Visitors

Mill

ions

Source: Google Trends

Unique Website Visitors

Source: Stephen Geer

Money Raised

CLINTON

OBAMA

McCAINJANUARY

‘07JANUARY

‘08JANUARY

‘09ELECTION DAY

ANNOUNCEMENT

PRIMARY GENERAL

Source: Federal Election Commission

McCain$201 million

Obama$656 million

Money Raised

Note: Does not include federal funds

Source: Washington Post and Federal Election Commission

McCain$201 million

Obama (Online)$500 million

Obama (Offline)$156 million

Money Raised

Note: Does not include federal funds

Lessons Learned

Lesson #1:

Define success.

Chuck Kennedy-Pool/Getty Images

Lesson #1:

Define success.

Lesson #1:

Define success .

Lesson #1:

Define quantifiable success metrics.

Email signupWebsite Raise money

Email signupWebsite Raise money

cost per click

sign up rate

$ per recipient

Email signupWebsite Raise money

cost per click

sign up rate

$ per recipient

Lesson #1:

Define quantifiable success metrics.

Lesson #2:

Question assumptions.

Media

Button

Button:

1. Sign Up

2. Learn More

3. Join Us Now

4. Sign Up Now

Media:

1. Get Involved Image

2. Family Image

3. Change Image

4. Barack’s Video

5. Springfield Video

6. Sam’s Video

Splash page experiment

Variations:

Button: “Sign Up”

Button: “Learn More”

Button: “Join Us Now”

Button: “Sign Up Now”

Button:

1. Sign Up

2. Learn More

3. Join Us Now

4. Sign Up Now

Media:

1. Get Involved Image

2. Family Image

3. Change Image

4. Barack’s Video

5. Springfield Video

6. Sam’s Video

Splash page experiment

Variations:

Media: “Get Involved”

Media: “Family”

Media: “Change”

Media: “Barack’s Video”

Media: “Springfield Video”

Media: “Sam’s Video”

Button:

1. Sign Up

2. Learn More

3. Join Us Now

4. Sign Up Now

Media:

1. Get Involved Image

2. Family Image

3. Change Image

4. Barack’s Video

5. Springfield Video

6. Sam’s Video

Splash page experiment

Variations:

Splash page experiment results

Splash page experiment results

Lesson #2:

Question assumptions.

Lesson #3:

Divide and conquer.

Donation button experiment results

VariationsNever

Signed UpSigned Up,

Never DonatedPreviously Donated

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

+2.3% +27.8% +16.3%

-27.8% N/A N/A

+15.2% -24.6% +11.9%

+8.5% +2.9% +18.4%

Lesson #3:

Divide and conquer.

Lesson #4:

Don’t re-invent the wheel.

DbVisualizer

TextMate

OpenReports

Lesson #4:

Don’t re-invent the wheel.

Lesson #5:

Take advantage of circumstances.

Courtesy: Bradley Portnoy Taken: August 27th, 2008 9:42PM

Lesson #5:

Take advantage of circumstances.

1. Define quantifiable success metrics.

2. Question assumptions.

3. Divide and conquer.

4. Don’t re-invent the wheel.

5. Take advantage of circumstances.

Lessons Learned

Case Study

Lesson #1:

Define quantifiable success metrics.

Case Study

Playing userWebsite Paying user

Playing userWebsite Paying user

Playing userWebsite Paying user

cost per click

cost per playing user

revenue per playing user

Playing userWebsite Paying user

cost per click

cost per playing user

revenue per playing user

$1.15 $0.119/16:

9/22:

9/28:

$0.41 $0.10

$0.43 $0.19

$19 pay-to-play

$4 pay-to-play

freemium subscription

$0.33

$0.17

$0.17

Lesson #1:

Define quantifiable success metrics.

Case Study

Lesson #2:

Question assumptions.

Case Study

Lesson #2:

Question assumptions.

Case Study

Lesson #3:

Divide and conquer.

Case Study

Lesson #3:

Divide and conquer.

Case Study

Lesson #4:

Don’t re-invent the wheel.

Case Study

Lesson #4:

Don’t re-invent the wheel.

Case Study

Lesson #5:

Take advantage of circumstances.

Case Study

Lesson #5:

Take advantage of circumstances.

Case Study

1. Define quantifiable success metrics.

2. Question assumptions.

3. Divide and conquer.

4. Don’t re-invent the wheel.

5. Take advantage of circumstances.

Lessons Learned

Dan Siroker

dan@siroker.com

1. Huge data challenges.

2. More effective user segmentation.

3. Democratization of tools & strategies.

The Future