Global Market Forecast 2015-2034

Global Market Forecast

Flying byNumbers2015 2034

Global M

arket Forecast 2015 2034

Introduction

For this year’s Global Market

Forecast we have chosen the

theme of equations and numbers.

It seemed appropriate as the

economists and data analysts

working on Airbus’ forecasts

spend much of their day either

searching for and evaluating new,

complementary and relevant

sources of data; then trying to find

ways to use these numbers more

effectively to improve the reliability

and validity of our analyses and

forecasts. They rely daily on

equations and ever more capable

software tools to achieve this.

But more than this, a key part of

their work is to check and challenge

the methodologies used and the

analyses produced against real

world behaviours of passengers

and airlines alike. Their aim is to

identify a market-based vision of

air transport over the next 20 years

backed up by rigorous data, clear

graphics and industry insight.

The numbers resulting from our

equations will in time become real

passengers and aircraft, and their

worldwide flows will drive aviation

infrastructure and investment.

It may sound a little geeky to quote

the philosopher and mathematician

Plato, but he got it right when he

said “A good decision is based on

knowledge and not on numbers”

Our aim is to apply knowledge to

numbers and through the GMF to

share this with you.

We hope that you find the 2015

Global Market Forecast informative

and useful. We seek to improve

our analyses continually, and

your questions, challenges and

suggestions help us advance

towards that goal. Don’t forget you

can download our App in several

formats from tablet to smartphone.

It complements the forecast

and includes our thoughts in an

interactive format.

As usual this is best read on

an aeroplane, perhaps taking

advantage of the quiet, smooth

comfort of your next A380 flight.

Enjoy!

“WE ARE FOCUSED ON OUR LONG-TERM FUTURE MORE THAN EVER BEFORE.”Fabrice Brégier CEO Airbus

002Flying by Numbers

Network and traffic forecast

018

Freighterforecast080

Demand for air travel012

Demand by region050

P.052 Asia-PacificP.056 EuropeP.060 North AmericaP.064 Middle EastP.068 Latin America & CarribbeanP.072 CISP.076 Africa

Summary &methodology

088

Executive summary

004

Demand for passenger aircraft

042

Executive summary

Passenger traffic growth next 20 years

4.6% AAGR

Freight traffic growth

4.4% AAGR

Passenger deliveries (> 100 seats) 2015-2034

31,781

New freighters2015-2034

804

Passenger & New freighter deliveries 2015-2034

32,585

Freighter fleet2014

1,6332034

2,687

+1,054

Passenger fleet2014

17,3542034

35,749

+18,395

Traffic > double

Pax fleet > double

Demand for 32,585 New pax & Freight aircraft

Value of Demand $4.9 trillion

007Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers006

World annual traf�c (trillion RPK)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

2034202920242019201420092004199919941989198419791974

x 2

Air traf�c has doubledevery 15 years

Air traf�c will doublein the next 15 years

ICAO total traf�c Airbus GMF 2015

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2034Beginning 2015

19,000

38,500

Growth

Replacement

Stayin service

19,500

13,100

5,900

Fleet in service evolution: 2015-2034

32,600New

aircraft

AIR TRAFFIC WILL DOUBLE IN THE NEXT 15 YEARSSources: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2015RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometers

DEMAND FOR SOME 32,600 NEW PASSENGER AND FREIGHTER AIRCRAFTSource: AirbusNotes: Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats Freighter aircraft ≥10 tonnes

2014-2034

4.6%

New Deliveries

32,600GMF 2015-2034

20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft

% units

% value

25%

43%

5%

12%

70%

45%

0

5,000

1,0000

1,5000

2,0000

2,5000

Very Large AircraftTwin-aisleSingle-aisle

22,900

8,100

1,600

SINGLE-AISLE: 70% OF UNITS; WIDE-BODIES: 55% OF VALUEPassenger aircraft (≥100 seats) and jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)Source: Airbus GMF May 2015

PASSENGER AND FREIGHTER DELIVERIES


• Passenger traffic to grow at 4.6% per year to 2034

• Traffic to double in the next 15 years as in the past

• Giving 15.2 trillion RPKs by 2034

• “Domestic China” to become the largest single passenger traffic flow

• International long–haul traffic expected to grow faster than

domestic and international short-haul, taking a 45% share by 2034

• Most deliveries to go to Asia-Pacific, 12,596 passenger and freighter

aircraft

• North America and Europe 37%, or 11,909 aircraft

• 1,552 passenger aircraft forecast to be converted to freighters

• Nearly 14,000 aircraft will be retired to be replaced by more

eco-efficient types

2015-

2024

2025-

2034

2015-

2034

SHARE OF 2015-2034

NEW DELIVERIES

AFRICA 460 657 1,117 3%

ASIA-

PACIFIC 4,986 7,610 12,596 39%

CIS577 711 1,288 4%

EUROPE 3,375 2,990 6,365 20%

LATIN

AMERICA1,111 1,399 2,510 8%

MIDDLE

EAST1,174 1,187 2,361 7%

NORTH

AMERICA2,972 2,572 5,544 17%

FREIGHTERS 463 341 804 2%

WORLD 15,118 17,467 32,585 100%

Asia-Pacific alone to take 39% deliveries

North America/Europe 37% deliveries

Single-aisle 70% of deliveries Wide-body 55% by value

11,834 Pax aircraft Replaced by more Eco-efficient types

NEW AIRCRAFT DEMAND PASSENGER AND FREIGHTERS DEMAND FOR MORE THAN 32,500 NEW AIRCRAFTPassenger aircraft (≥100 seats) and jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)

Converted

Remarketed & stay in service

31,781

32,585

1,552

3,968

804

11,834

13,135

1,301

PassengerFleet

NewDeliveries

Retired

FreighterFleet


Flying by Numbers012 013Flying by Numbers

Demand forair travel

KEY DRIVERS FOR AIR TRAFFIC GROWTH

• Economic growth

• Increasing urbanisation

• Expanding middle class

• Rise in international students, migration and tourism

• Trade

• Growing mega-cities, centres for people, wealth, and aviation

• Liberalisation and bi-lateral air service agreements

AIR TRANSPORT GROWTH IS HIGHEST IN EXPANDING REGIONS

Yearly RPK growth 2015-2034

+5.8%

China

India

Middle East

Asia

Africa

CIS

Latin America

Eastern Europe

6.3billion

people2014

EMERGING/ DEVELOPING

Yearly RPK growth2015-2034

+3.8%Western Europe

North America

Japan

1billion

people2014

ADVANCED

LIBERALISATION AND GLOBALISATION HAVE DRIVEN WORLD TRAFFIC GROWTHSources: ICAO WASA database, Airbus

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

20102005200019951990198519801975197019651960195519501945

Number of bilateral air services agreements in the World

More than

2,550BILATERAL AIR SERVICE AGREEMENTS BETWEEN MORE THAN

170 COUNTRIES,

ALMOST 15,000 POSSIBLE COUNTRY-PAIRS


MIDDLE CLASS TO GROW, DOUBLING IN EMERGING COUNTRIESSources: Oxford Economics, Airbus GMF 2015* Households with yearly income between $20,000 and $150,000 at PPP in constant 2014 prices

• Economic and population growth in emerging markets will help to

drive traffic growth beyond more mature markets

• The middle classes set to double in emerging markets, also global

share of private consumption in emerging markets set to grow from

31% today to 43% in 3034, both factors to drive aviation growth

• Liberalisation and visa process simplification stimulating air

traffic growth

• By 2034, on a per capita basis, the people of China will be flying

as much as European’s today

• More than 2,500 air service agreements between +170 countries

enables almost 15,000 possible city pairs

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2034202420142004

28% 46% 55%37%

1,792

2,703

3,671

4,721

1,1202,001

2,936

3,977

247 259 263 264

425 444 471 480

Middle Class*, millions of people

6,400 8,000 8,6007,200

World population

% of World population

History Forecast

Propensity to travel

74%OF THE POPULATION OF THE EMERGING COUNTRIES WILL TAKE A TRIP A YEAR IN

2034

2014 real GDP per capita(2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)

2034 trips per capita

100,00

10,00

1,00

0,10

0,01

0,00

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

India0.30 trips per capita

PRC1.09 trips per capita

Europe2.24 trips per capita

North America2.16 trips per capita

BY 2034, PRC WILL REACH CURRENT EUROPEAN LEVELSSources: Sabre, IHS Economics, Airbus GMF 2015

Emergingcountries

North America

Europe


Networkand trafficforecast

• The network is constantly evolving

• More routes, bigger existing routes, more connectivity

• By 2034, 70% of network growth and 84% of total RPKs will be

centred on todays routes/network

• Aviation Mega-Cities (AMCs) big today, bigger tomorrow

• More than 90% of international long-haul flying centred on just

47 cities

• 22% of global GDP focused on the AMCs, helping drive the share

of higher yield passenger up from these cities

• As traffic grows and O&D between the “big points” concentrates,

congestion is an issue at many key airports

• The trend to larger aircraft helping, more larger aircraft to come

• The A380 for example, already proven it helps increase pax, reduce

airline costs, and free up slots at congested airports

More services

SINCE 2004

+31%

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

201420122010200820062004

Base 100 in 2014

DESPITE A MAJOR CRISIS IN 2008, AIRLINES HAVE OFFERED MORE SERVICES* TO THEIR CUSTOMERSNotes: as of September*Service is defined as a new airport pair or a new airline operating an existing airport pairSources: OAG, Airbus

ASKs: +57% Services: +31% City pairs: +26%


47 AVIATION MEGA-CITIES IN 2014Sources: McKinsey, UNPD, Airbus GMF 2015

2014 Aviation Mega-Cities

10,000 230,000

+90%OF LONG-HAUL TRAFFIC ON ROUTES TO/FROM/VIA 47 CITIES

22%OF WORLDGDP IN

2014

0.9MDAILY PASSENGERS: LONG-HAUL TRAFFIC TO/ FROM/VIA MEGA-CITIES

AVIATION MEGA-CITIES

47


2014-2034 NEW SERVICESSource: Airbus

70% OF TRAFFIC GROWTH UNTIL 2034 WILL COME FROM THE EXISTING NETWORKSource: Airbus GMF 2015

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

20342014

Monthly Trillion RPK

Growth from new routes

Growth from existing network Base year Traffic


2014 Aviation Mega-Cities

THESE AIRPORTS ARE ALREADY LARGELY CONGESTEDSources: IATA WSG database, Airbus GMF

39OUT OF THE

47AVIATION MEGA CITIES ARE SCHEDULE- CONSTRAINED TODAY IATA WSG level 3: airports

where conditions make it impossible to meet demand

IATA WSG level 2: airports with potential for congestion

IATA WSG level 1: airport infrastructure is adequate

*Aviation Mega-Cities International Airports


MORE SEATS , MORE SEATS FILLED, MORE MOVEMENTS & MORE CONNECTIVITY , BUT…

In the last 30 years:

• Airport movements up nearly 2.5 times

• Airport connectivity almost doubled

• Offered seats per aircraft have nearly doubled

• Worldwide average load factor ~80%, up 17 percentage points

since 1980

However since 2000:

• Average kilogrammes of fuel per passenger trip is down a third

• Therefore CO per passenger trip is also down a third

MORE MOVEMENTS, MORE CONNECTIVITYSources: OAG, Airbus GMF 2015

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

20142010200520001995199019851980

Avg. number of movements per airport

x 2.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

20142010200520001995199019851980

Avg. number of destinations per airport

x 1.9

Airport movements

Airport connectivity


MORE PRODUCTIVE SEATSSources: OAG, Ascend, ICAO, Airbus GMF 2015

LESS FUEL BURN, THEREFORE LESS EMISSIONSSources: ICAO, IATA, Airbus GMF 2015

0

50

100

150

200

250

20142010200520001995199019851980

Avg. number of yearly offered seats per aircraft (000)

+46%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

20142012201020082006200420022000

Kliograms per passenger trip (avg.)

-33%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

20142010200520001995199019851980

World passenger load factors (%)

+17percentage

points

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

20142012201020082006200420022000

-33%

Kliograms per passenger trip (avg.)

Yearly offered seats per aircraft Fuel consumption

Load factors Co2 emissions

LESS FUEL AND LESS CO !


PASSENGER TRAFFIC FORECAST – 4.6% PER ANNUM (2014-2034)

• Aviation remains resilient to crises, growing 85% since 2001

• Domestic China will be the largest flow by 2034, forecast to grow

nearly four times

• Half of the top 20 traffic flows will include Asia-Pacific

• Airlines in the Asia-Pacific will fly 36% of total traffic, North American

and European airlines forecast to fly 38% of RPKs combined

• Middle Eastern carriers will grow from an 9% share to 13% of

traffic in the next 20 years

• Despite perturbations Airbus’ historical traffic forecasts continue to

track the long term trend

AIR TRAVEL HAS PROVED TO BE RESILIENT TO EXTERNAL SHOCKSSources: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2015RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometer


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2014201120072003

2001

199919951991198719831979197519711967

85%

World traffic

85%GROWTH SINCE 9/11

Asia-Pacific leading growth

50%OF THE TOP TWENTY TRAFFIC FLOWS WILL INVOLVE ASIA-PACIFIC

Annual O&D traf�c per �ow (billion RPK)

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800

Asia Advanced - Asia Emerging Sub Sahara Africa - Western Europe

Middle East - USA Australia & New Zealand - Western Europe

Central Europe - Western Europe Indian Subcontinent - USA

Western Europe - PRC Domestic Brazil

South America - USA Asia Emerging - Western Europe Western Europe - South America

PRC - USA Indian Subcontinent - Middle East

Domestic India Western Europe - Middle East

Domestic Asia Emerging Western Europe - USA

Intra Western Europe Domestic USA Domestic PRC x3.8

x1.4

x1.7x1.7

x3.7

x2.4x5.8

x3.4x4.1

x2.2x2.4x2.8

x2.9

x3.0

x3.8x2.5

x2.4x4.1

x2.5x3.1

DOMESTIC PRC WILL BE THE LARGEST O&D TRAFFIC FLOW IN 2034Source: Airbus GMF 2015

2014

2034


0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

Africa

CIS

Latin America

Middle East

North America

Europe

Asia-Paci�c

RPK traf�c by airline domicile (billions)

ASIA-PACIFIC TO LEAD IN WORLD TRAFFIC BY 2034Source: Airbus GMF 2015

2014 traffic 2015-2034 traffic

% of 2014world RPK

20-year growth % of 2034world RPK

29% 5.7% 36%

25% 3.6% 21%

25% 2.5% 17%

9% 6.7% 13%

5% 5.2% 6%

4% 4.9% 4%

3% 5.3% 3%

20-YEAR WORLD ANNUAL TRAFFIC GROWTH

4.6%


DESPITE “UPS AND DOWNS” GMF TRAFFIC FORECASTS TRACK THE LONG TERM TRENDSources: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2015

GMF long term validity

GMF 2000LONG TERM FORECAST IS STILL IN LINE WITH OUR LATEST FORECAST

World annual traf�c (RPKs - trillions)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

20262022201820142010200620021998

GMF 2000

GMF 2015

GMF 2008

Historical


PASSENGER TRAFFIC FORECAST

• Traffic between emerging markets forecast to grow the fastest at

6.6% AAGR. They will also have the largest share of RPKs with 36%

• Advanced to Emerging traffic flows will also grow strongly at

5.0% AAGR between 2014 and 2034

• Traffic to and from the emerging regions will account for 70% of

World RPKs by 2034

• International long haul traffic will continue to represent about 45% of

the World RPKs in the next 20 years, and will grow most strongly

at 4.7% AAGR to 2034

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

20342014

Share of the World traf�c by type of �ow (RPKs)2014-2034AAGR

+5.0%

+2.6%

+6.6%

34%32%

30%43%

36%25%

Advanced - Emerging

Emerging- Emerging

Advanced - Advanced

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

203420142002


23%

45%

44%

32%

24%

ICAOtotal traf�c

AirbusGMF 2015

2014-2034AAGR

InternationalShort-Haul+4.5%

Domestic+4.5%

InternationalLong-Haul+4.7%

32%

Long-Haul demand leads the market

INTERNATIONAL LONG-HAUL TRAFFIC WILL CONTINUE TO REPRESENT ABOUT

45%OF WORLD RPKsIN THE NEXT 20 YEARS

EMERGING REGIONS WILL DRIVE WORLD TRAFFIC GROWTH

TRAFFIC FROM / TO / WITHIN EMERGING REGIONS WILL ACCOUNT FOR

70%OF WORLD RPKs

2034

EMERGING REGIONS WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE LARGEST SHARE OF ORIGIN AND DESTINATION TRAFFIC WORLDWIDESource: Airbus GMF 2015

INTERNATIONAL LONG-HAUL TRAFFIC WILL STILL REPRESENT THE LARGEST SHARE OF TRAFFIC WORLDWIDESources: ICAO, Sabre GDD, Airbus GMF 2015Long-haul: O&D distance >2000 NM


FREIGHT TRAFFIC FORECAST

• Freight traffic (main deck and belly hold) will grow on average 4.4%

per annum over the next 20 years

• As for passenger traffic, growth involving the emerging markets

will be strong, with 6.1% AAGR between emerging countries, and

between advanced and emerging

• 80% of all freight traffic is linked to these emerging markets

0

100

200

300

400

500

20342032203020282026202420222020201820162014201220102008200620042002200019981996

Billion Freight tonne kilometres

History Forecast AdvancedAdvanced

2.6%

EmergingEmerging

6.1%

AdvancedEmerging

4.9%

EmergingAdvanced

4.9%

80%

Growth Rate2014-2034

Annual growth rate 2014-2034

4.4%INCLUDES BELLY AND MAIN DECK


Demand for passengeraircraft

• Average aircraft size is increasing

• Average aircraft size per flight has grown from 139 seats to over 170

seats since the early 1970’s

• A second period of average aircraft size growth is beginning with

today’s backlog

• Single-aisle aircraft range from 100 to 240 seats, with the A321

offering this highest seating configuration, with the possibility on

the range side of flying 4000nm

• For wide-body types there is operational overlap with the single-aisle,

with lower seating limits around 200 seats increasing to 600 or even

higher with the A380

• This overlap has developed as the capability of both segments of

today’s aircraft have grown, leaving an already seamless coverage

between the single-aisle and widebody markets

• With international long-haul traffic growing the fastest, the “big

points” like Aviation Mega-Cities will grow in importance. This

will have an effect on the size and type of aircraft selected by airlines in

the coming years

130

135

140

145

150

155

160

165

170

175

2014201220072002199719921987198219771972

Average capacity per �ight, aircraft above 100seats

WIDE-BODIES OFFER 10% OF SEATS OPERATED BELOW 2,000NM Note: September 2014Sources: OAG, Airbus

AVERAGE AIRCRAFT CAPACITY PER FLIGHT HAS INCREASED OVER TIMESources: Airbus, OAGSeptember month for each year

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

60005600520048004400400036003200280024002000160012008004000

Single-Aisle

Single-Aisleoperates 15%

of seatsover 2,000nm

Wide-Bodies operates 10%of seats below 2,000nm

Wide-Body

Share of global seats offered

Sector Length (nm)


AMC to AMC

TO REPRESENT

77%OF ALL LONG HAUL TRAFFIC

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

203420242014

Monthly international long-haul passengers (Millions)

Long-haul, �ight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traf�c

Sources: Sabre (September 2014 data), Airbus


Aviation Mega-City to Aviation Mega-City

Aviation Mega-City to Secondary City

Secondary City to Secondary City

1% 85%14%

7% 59%34%

1% 88%11%

2% 76%22%

GLOBAL NETWORK NORTH AMERICA

LCCs

OTHERS*

14,116 (44%) 5,544 (17%)

1% 79%20%

LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN

2,510 (8%)

3% 75%22%

AFRICA

1,117 (4%)

16% 38%

46%

MIDDLE EAST

1,117 (7%)

2% 85%13%

CIS

1,288 (4%)

5% 66%29%

ASIA-PACIFIC

3% 79%18%

EUROPE

6,365 (20%)

9,321 (29%)

8,345 (26%)

*Charters, Regional, Smalland Major network airlines

12,596 (40%)

10%

47%43%

US$ 4.7 trillion

1,275

22,927

7,579

31,781 aircraft

New deliveries

Market value Fleet evolution

17,354

18,395

13,386

3,968

Beginning 2015

2034

Growth

Replaced

Stay in service& remarketed

US$ 2.2 trillion

US$ 2.0 trillion

US$ 0.5 trillion

New deliveries by neutral category

1,296

3,478

7,459 6,872

3,822

2,574 2,610

1,463932 1,275

100 125 150 175 210 250 300 350 400 VLA

35,749

VLA TA SA


Demand by region

NEW DELIVERIES

37%REPLACEMENT

63%FOR GROWTH

33%WILL BE TWIN-AISLE WITH MANY OF THESE TO BE USED ON MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONS, AS WELL AS LONG-HAUL

• Asia-Pacific will continue to lead world economic growth, both in

terms of real GDP with an average growth of 4.5% per year and in trade

with an average of 5.3% growth per year

• “Asia developed” countries delivered 39% of the total traffic to/

from/within Asia-Pacific in 2004, today it accounts for 28% of the

total traffic

• Conversely, PRC has increased its share of the region’s traffic from

23% in 2004 to 31% in 2014

• Airlines domiciled in the PRC increased their market share from 26%

of Asia-Pacific’s total Available Seat Kilometres (ASK) in 2004 to 33%

in 2014

• Ten of the top 20 traffic flows forecast include Asia/Pacific

• Asia-Pacific have experienced growth in low cost operations in

recent years

• The Indian subcontinent and “Asia emerging” countries LCCs have

captured ~60% of the total domestic traffic

• In more mature markets in the region the LCC share is significantly

smaller ~25% shareAsia- Pacific

12,596


Number of new aircraftNew deliveries by segment

6241,089

SmallTwin-Aisle

IntermediateTwin-Aisle

VeryLarge

Single-Aisle

2,554

8,329

Asia-Paci�c

6.0%

NorthAmerica

4.9%

LatinAmerica

5.9%

MiddleEast

6.3%

CIS

5.9%Europe

4.4%

Domesticand

Intra-Regional

Stay in service &Remarketed 626

5,275

New deliveries

12,596

13,222

Growth7,947

Fleet in service evolutionFleet size*

* Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats ** 2014-2034 CAGR

Real Trade

5.3%

Intra-regional& domestic6.0%Inter-regional5.1%

20155,275

203413,222

Totaltraf�c5.6%

Real GDP4.5%

Fleet in service20 year

newdeliveries

12,596

Total RPKtraf�c growth

Asia-Paci�c

World

2014-2024 2024-2034 2014-2034

5.0%4.1% 4.6%

6.4%

4.8%5.6%

2034Beginning2015

Africa

7.3%

Replacement4,649

ResultsFlying by Numbers054 055Flying by Numbers

• Whilst the Eurozone economy has had difficulty gaining momentum,

consumer spending is accelerating

• Air transport is a core industry in Europe. In 2014, it accounted

for 4.1% of the region’s GDP, supporting more than 12 million jobs

according to a recent ACI report

• Tourism is a major driver for European international traffic. The

UNWTO reported that Europe attracted 588 million visitors in 2014, a

4% increase versus 2013

• Over the next 20 years, we forecast that the passenger traffic from /

to / after the to i.e. to / within the region will grow at a yearly average rate

of 4.6% in Central Europe, and 3.3% in Western Europe

• Europe leads the long haul market. 60% of the World’s long haul

flights (those over 6000km) depart or arrive in Europe

• Europe’s average propensity to travel in 2014 was 1.2 trips per

capita (The US stands at 1.6 trips per capita)

Europe 6,365NEW DELIVERIES

51%REPLACEMENT

49%FOR GROWTH

79%WILL BE SINGLE-AISLES DUE TO THE EUROPEAN POPULATION LANDSCAPE



SmallTwin-Aisle


VeryLarge

Single-Aisle

787

5,052

370 156

Europe

2.9%

Asia-Paci�c

4.4%

NorthAmerica

2.8%

LatinAmerica

3.5%

MiddleEast

4.6%

Africa

4.7%

Domesticand

Intra-Regional


2034

4,093

Beginning2015

New deliveries

6,365

7,208

Growth3,115



Real Trade

3.4%


20154,093

20347,208

Totaltraf�c3.6%

Real GDP1.7%


newdeliveries

6,365


World

Europe

2014-2024 2024-2034 2014-2034

5.0%4.1%

4.6%

CIS

4.6%

3.9%3.4% 3.6%Replacement

3,250


• Consumer spending sustained by strong employment growth,

improved household finances, low gasoline prices, the housing market

and capital expenditure recovery have helped drive US economic

activity

• US real GDP growth is forecast to average 2.5% per year in the

2014-2034 period, with greater business fixed investment and R&D

spending offsetting the slowdown in labour force growth

• By 2034, North America is forecast to still account for 21% of the

World economy (in real terms)

• For a third consecutive year, airlines in the region achieved collective

profitability in 2014, this mainly due to effects of consolidation and

lower fuel costs

• With the return of profitability in 2010, the number of single-aisle

aircraft has increased and with a stabilisation in the number of

twin-aisle aircraft meeting market needs

• The domestic US air transport market, the largest single market

today, will remain enormous, and is forecast to be the second biggest

flow in the world with 90 billion RPKs by 2034

• Traffic between the US and China is forecast to be the most

dynamic of the North American regions flows with an average yearly

growth of 7.3%

NorthAmerica

5,544NEW DELIVERIES

65%REPLACEMENT

35%FOR GROWTH

85%WILL BE SINGLE-AISLES DUE TO THE IMPORTANCE OF THE US DOMESTIC MARKET



SmallTwin-Aisle


VeryLarge

Single-Aisle

582

4,733

19435

NorthAmerica

1.8% Asia-Paci�c

4.9%

Africa

4.8%

Domesticand

Intra-Regional


4,182

Beginning2015

New deliveries

5,544

6,095

Growth1,913



Real Trade

4.6%


20154,182

20346,095

Totaltraf�c3.4%

Real GDP2.5%


newdeliveries

5,544

CIS

4.4%Europe

2.8%


NorthAmerica

World

2014-2024 2024-2034 2014-2034

5.0%

4.1%

4.6%

3.1%3.4%

3.7%

LatinAmerica

4.5%

MiddleEast

7.1%

Replacement3,631


• The region’s medium-term economic outlook remains supported by its

substantial petroleum resources, close proximity to energy-hungry

Asian economies, growing tourism potential and strategically

important geopolitical location

• Air transport has been both a major driver and indicator of the growing

importance of the Middle East in the global economy

• Over the past ten years, Middle Eastern airlines have spearheaded

growth in the region. They have extended their presence to five

continents, enabling air traffic to grow twice as fast as the economy

• Since 2003 the capacity in terms of available seats has quadrupled to

over 90 billion ASK

• The Middle East is the only region in the world where the twin-aisle fleet

is bigger than the single aisle in numbers of aircraft

• This aircraft capacity has been a key enabler of airline growth in

the region in recent years

• Long haul traffic has been growing at 11 percent over the past 20

years, outperforming short haul

• A third of all passengers travelling on Middle East carriers are on a

connecting flights, but no necessarily connecting in the Middle East

• However, the share of connecting traffic passing through the Middle

East, i.e. not starting or finishing the journeys there, is just 19% of the

regions total origin and destination traffic

MiddleEast

2,361NEW DELIVERIES

25%REPLACEMENT

75%FOR GROWTH

62%WILL BE WIDE- BODIES DUE TO THE POSITION THE REGION IS CREATING FOR ITSELF AS A MAJOR GLOBAL HUB, AND THE SUCCESS OF ITS AIRLINES



SmallTwin-Aisle


VeryLarge

Single-Aisle

547

886

551

377

MiddleEast

5.8%

Asia-Paci�c

6.3%

NorthAmerica

7.1%

Africa

6.6%

Domesticand

Intra-Regional


2034

1,018

Beginning2015

New deliveries

2,361

7,792

Growth1,774



Real Trade

4.2%


20151,018

20342,792

Totaltraf�c6.0%

Real GDP3.8%


newdeliveries

2,361

CIS

5.3%Europe

4.6%


MiddleEast

World

2014-2024 2024-2034 2014-2034

5.0%

4.1%

4.6%4.8%6.0%

7.1%

LatinAmerica

7.7%

Replacement587


• The region’s real GDP growth is expected to average 3.6% per year

over the 2014-2034 period, above that forecast globally

• Together with the regions large and growing urban populations

propensity to travel in the region is expected to develop further,

with countries like Chile, Brazil and Colombia, reaching the levels

achieved by more mature economies by 2034

• Traffic growth to/from/within Latin America and the Caribbean is

expected to expand at an annual 4.7% rate, above the 4.6% world

annual rate

• Three out of the top twenty largest traffic flows continue to be

linked to the region

• Traffic within the region (domestic and intra-regional) will help to drive

passenger growth, representing more than 35% of the total by 2034,

above the current share which is ~30%

• The LCC’s steady expansion was mainly concentrated on the Brazilian

and Mexican domestic markets. It is expected however, that airlines

offering low-cost services will find new markets, flying longer, thus

also stimulating intra-regional traffic

• Between 1994-2014, airlines in the region have expanded their

average aircraft size per single-aisle flight at an annual rate of 0.8%,

close to the 0.9% registered worldwide over the same period

LatinAmerica&Caribbean

2,510NEW DELIVERIES

39%REPLACEMENT

61%FOR GROWTH

79%WILL BE SINGLE-AISLES DRIVEN BY STRONG GROWTH IN AIR TRAVEL DOMESTICALLY AND AROUND THE REGION



SmallTwin-Aisle


VeryLarge

Single-Aisle

382

1,992

108 28

LatinAmerica

5.3%

Asia-Paci�c

5.9%

NorthAmerica

4.5%MiddleEast

7.7%

Africa

5.0%

Domesticand

Intra-Regional


2034

1,266

Beginning2015

New deliveries

2,510

2,801

Growth1,535



Real Trade

4.2%


20151,266

20342,801

Totaltraf�c4.7%

Real GDP3.6%


newdeliveries

2,510

CIS

5.3%Europe

3.5%


LatinAmerica

World

2014-2024 2024-2034 2014-2034

5.0%

4.1%

4.6%4.4%4.7%4.9%

Replacement975


1,288NEW DELIVERIESTHE MAJORITY WILL BE FOR GROWTH

85%WILL BE SINGLE-AISLES

THE CIS PASSENGER FLEET IS FORECAST TO MORE THAN DOUBLE TO

2,016AIRCRAFT

• In 2014, a number of the countries in the region maintained solid

economic performance. Uzbekistan and Moldovan real GDP grew

by 6.9 percent and 4.3 percent respectively. In 2015, CIS countries

excluding Russia will continue to grow at 2.4 percent according to

the IMF

• In the longer term, air travel consistently outperforms the

economy. Over the past fifteen years, real GDP grew on average at

4.3 percent, while traffic increased by 8.5 percent

• Travel and tourism have the potential to become a much stronger

driver for the region’s economies

• The share of Russian tourism in the world is less than one percent,

while its economy represents 2.4 percent of global GDP

• Over the past ten years, the number of passengers flying to and from

emerging economies has reached 34 million in 2013, compared to less

than ten million in 2004

• Travel to the Asia-Pacific from the region has increased by a

multiple of four

• On average, the yearly growth in travel with developing markets was

15.8 percent, 4.3 percent above the rate with developed countries

• With further strengthening of trade with fast-growing economies the

trend is likely to continue

• Preliminary figures for 2014 suggest that China is taking the lead

in terms of tourist visits to Russia (10-15 percent growth).

Inbound tourism from Korea has increased by 70 percent after a visa

simplification process introduced in 2013

CIS



SmallTwin-Aisle


VeryLarge

Single-Aisle

138

1,101

25 24

CIS

4.3%

Asia-Paci�c

5.9%

NorthAmerica

4.4%

LatinAmerica

5.3%

MiddleEast

6.6%

Africa

5.0%

Europe

4.6%

Domesticand

Intra-Regional


Replacement194

2034

922

Beginning2015

New deliveries

1,288

2,016

Growth1,094



Real Trade

2.0%


2015922

20342,016

Totaltraf�c4.8%

Real GDP2.1%


newdeliveries

1,288


World

CIS

2014-2024 2024-2034 2014-2034

5.0%4.1% 4.6%

5.5%

4.2% 4.8%


11,117NEW DELIVERIES

9%REPLACEMENT

91%FOR GROWTH

75%WILL BE SINGLE-AISLES AS INTER-REGIONAL FLYING GROWS

FLEET SET TO GROW

170%BY 2034

• Covering about 30 million km2, Africa is comprised of 54 countries,

more than any other continent, even surpassing Europe with 47, and

Asia with 44

• Africa’s population doubled between 1982-2009 according to the

UN, and is today estimated at 1.1 billion representing approximately

15% of the World’s population

• Growing faster even than China and India. It is estimated that one in

five people will live in Africa by the end of our forecast period in 2034

• There are 54 African cities with more than 1 million people and this

number is forecasted to grow to 93 by 2030

• According to the United Nations, the share of Africans living in urban

areas will reach 50% by 2034

• Inter-continental traffic with Africa is largely focused on Europe

which accounts for almost 60% of the total

• In recent years, Asia-Pacific and the Middle-East have gained

importance representing more than 33% of traffic in 2013 compared

to 25% ten years ago

• Domestic traffic within African countries remains the primary market

for African air travellers

• However, Intra-regional traffic between African countries

has grown faster than domestic traffic over the last 10 years,

supported by the growing African urban population and African intra-

regional trade

Africa


Number of new aircraftNew deliveries by segmentFleet in service evolution

3158

SmallTwin-Aisle


VeryLarge

Single-Aisle

194

834

Africa

6.4%

Asia-Paci�c

7.3%

NorthAmerica

4.8%

LatinAmerica

5.0%

MiddleEast

6.6%

Europe

4.7%

Domesticand

Intra-Regional


598

New deliveries

1,117

1,615

Growth1,017

Fleet size*


Real Trade

5.0%


2015598

20341,615

Totaltraf�c5.6%

Real GDP4.6%


newdeliveries

1,117


World

Africa

2014-2024 2024-2034 2014-2034

5.0%4.1% 4.6%

6.2%

5.1% 5.6%

2034Beginning2015

CIS

5.0%

Replacement100


Freighterforecast

FREIGHTERDELIVERIES

EXPRESS ANDREGIONAL TRAFFIC WILL BOOST THE SMALL AND MID SIZE MARKET

BELLYCAPACITY WILL DRAMATICALLY IMPACT LARGE FREIGHTERPROSPECTS

FREIGHT FORECAST 2014

• After having stagnated for almost three years, the air freight industry

resumed its progress in 2014 by posting 4.6% growth compared to

2013

• In the summer of 2014, total air freight traffic surpassed the peak it

reached in 2011

• Air freight is forecast to grow at 4.4% over the next 20 years. This will be

largely driven by emerging markets where both general and express

cargo are expected to continue to expand

• Just over 50% of the cargo traffic in 2014 was transported in the “belly”

hold of passenger aircraft, that is in the space below the main deck

where passenger luggage is also stowed

• Due to the addition of more cargo capable passenger aircraft, the

market share for belly capacity is expected to continue to grow in the

future, especially on inter-continental traffic

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Large freightersMid-size freightersSmall freighters

Conversion and new build

609

1,129

617

FREIGHTER DELIVERIES OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARSSource: Airbus GMF 2015


North America

Latin America

Middle EastAsia-Paci�c

Europe & CIS

991

795

462337

804

309

17265

Africa

89 50169

77

THE FUTURE FREIGHTER FLEET DISTRIBUTION WILL REFLECT THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF EMERGING MARKETSSources: Airbus GMF 2014, ASCEND

The North American fleet is mainly a replacement market

The Asia-Pacific fleet is set to triple as a growth market

World fleet

20151,633

20342,687


THREE KEY FUTURE TRENDS FOR THE CARGO INDUSTRY:

• Express will continue to develop more rapidly than

general cargo, this driven by both international traf-

fic and domestic and regional traffic in emerging

regions such as China and South East Asia

• Medium haul regional traffic will surge with the

development of cargo networks in regions such as

intra-Asia, within Africa and Latin America. This will

drive the need for mid-sized freighter aircraft

• Belly capacity will continue to grow especially on

long haul routes where new cargo friendly pas-

senger wide-bodies are expected to progressively

replace large freighters thanks to very competitive

economics

2,355 Conversions & New build

74% Small& Mid-size deliveries

Fleet to > Double


Summary & methodology

Africa Asia-Pacific

CIS Europe Lat. &Caribb.

Middle East

North America

20 year new

deliveries

Single-Aisle 834 8,329 1,101 5,052 1,992 886 4,733 22,927

Small Twin-Aisle

194 2,554 138 787 382 547 582 5,184

Intermediate Twin-Aisle

58 1,089 25 370 108 551 194 2,395

Very Large Aircraft

31 624 24 156 28 377 35 1,275

TOTAL 1,117 12,596 1,288 6,365 2,510 2,361 5,544 31,781

Africa Asia-Pacific


Middle East

North America

20 year new

deliveries

Single-Aisle 834 8,329 1,101 5,052 1,992 886 4,733 22,927

Small Twin-Aisle

198 2,579 140 796 389 552 718 5,372

Intermediate Twin-Aisle

62 1,179 39 413 132 596 314 2,734

Very Large Aircraft

36 726 32 192 29 423 113 1,550

TOTAL 1,130 12,813 1,312 6,453 2,542 2,457 5,878 32,585

Africa Asia-Pacific


Middle East

North America

20 year new deliveries

Small - - - - - - - -

Mid-size 6 72 13 37 31 30 223 412

Large 7 145 11 51 1 66 111 392

TOTAL 13 217 24 88 32 96 334 804

NEW PASSENGER AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES BY REGION

SUMMARY RESULTS

NEW PASSENGER & FREIGHT AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES BY REGIONNEW FREIGHT AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES BY REGION

Africa Asia-Pacific


Middle East

North America

20 year new deliveries

Small 38 319 8 81 84 5 74 609

Mid-size 24 113 22 122 37 25 375 718

Large 10 77 14 28 - 19 77 225

TOTAL 72 509 44 231 121 49 526 1,552

CONVERTED FREIGHT AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES BY REGION

Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats and freight aircraft ≥10 tons


SAFE HARBOUR STATEMENT

DisclaimerThis presentation includes forward-looking statements. Words such as anticipates, believes, estimates, expects, intends, plans, projects, may, forecast and similar expressions are used to identify these forward-looking statements. Examples of forward-looking statements include statements made about strategy, ramp-up and delivery schedules, introduction of new products and services and market expectations, as well as statements regarding future performance and outlook. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to future events and circumstances and there are many factors that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements.

These factors include but are not limited to:

• Changes in general economic, political or market conditions, including the cy-clical nature of some of Airbus Group businesses;

• Significant disruptions in air travel (inclu-ding as a result of terrorist attacks);

• Currency exchange rate fluctuations, in particular between the Euro and the U.S. dollar;

• The successful execution of internal per-formance plans, including cost reduction and productivity efforts;

• Product performance risks, as well as pro-gramme development and management risks;

• Customer, supplier and subcontractor performance or contract negotiations, including financing issues;

• Competition and consolidation in the ae-rospace and defence industry;

• Significant collective bargaining labour disputes;

• The outcome of political and legal pro-cesses, including the availability of govern-ment financing for certain programmes and the size of defence and space procu-rement budgets;

• Research and development costs in connection with new products;

• Legal, financial and governmental risks related to international transactions;

• Legal and investigatory proceedings and other economic, political and technologi-cal risks and uncertainties.

Any forward-looking statement contained in this presentation/publication speaks as of the date of this presentation/publication release. Airbus Group undertakes no obligation to publicly revise or update any forward-looking statements in light of new information, future events or otherwise.


AIRBUS S.A.S. 31707 Blagnac Cedex, France © AIRBUS S.A.S. 2015 - All rights reserved, Airbus, its logo and the product names are registered trademarks.

Concept design by Airbus Multi Media Support 20150603. Photos by K. Ginn, P. Powietrzynski, M. Buschbell Steeger, BFG Images, Nikada, L. Patrizi, O. Korshakov, S. Ramadier, A. Doumenjou, C. Koshorst.

Reference D14029465 issue 2. August, 2015. Printed in France by Art & Caractère.

Confidential and proprietary document. This document and all information contained herein is the sole property of AIRBUS S.A.S. No intellectual property rights are granted by the delivery of this document or the disclosure of its content. This document shall not be reproduced or disclosed to a third party without the express written consent of AIRBUS S.A.S. This document and its content shall not be usedfor any purpose other than that for which it is supplied. The statements made herein do not constitute an offer.They are based on the mentioned assumptionsand are expressed in good faith. Where the supporting grounds for these statements are not shown, AIRBUS S.A.S. will be pleased to explain the basis thereof.

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Global Market Forecast 2015-2034