Global Economic Outlook 2016 – Moving Towards an Era of Stable Growth or Next

Global Recession?

Aroop Zutshi, Global President & Managing Partner

Craig Parker, Senior Economist

Sanghamitra Chatterjee, Industry Analyst

Date: 3rd March 2016

© 2014 Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved. This document contains highly confidential information and is the sole property of Frost & Sullivan. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, copied or otherwise reproduced without the written approval of Frost & Sullivan.

Analyst Briefing Webinar Taster Slides

Analysis of the Top Trends in the Global Growth Trajectory for 2016

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2.7 9.3 (7.0)1.0 (4.6) 3.6

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(1.6)

• While the United States, China, and Japan remained the world’s 3 largest economies in 2015, countries such asRussia and Brazil are losing their position because of continued recession and unrest.

• India emerged as the second-largest BRIC nation in 2015 and is set to enter the $2-trillion club along with Franceand the United Kingdom. According to the latest estimates, India will join the $3-trillion club no later than 2020because of the ongoing structural reforms, lower commodity prices, and strong domestic demand.

GD

P (

$ B

illio

n)

20 Largest Economies, Global, 2015

Note: GDP is measured at $ billion current prices. The growth numbers reflect year-on-year increase in GDP (dollar current prices).

Source: International Monetary Fund, Frost & Sullivan

Increase in nominal GDP(dollar current prices) in 2016 compared to 2015

Decrease in nominal GDP(dollar current prices) in 2016 compared to 2015

World’s 20 Largest Economies in 2015 and 2016

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0.0 5.0 10.0

Colombia

The United…

The United States

South Korea

The United…

Hungary

Algeria

Turkey

Spain

Romania

Saudi Arabia

Poland

The Czech…

Nigeria

Egypt

Indonesia

Malaysia

Vietnam

China

India

2016

2015

GDP Growth: Top 20 Fastest Growing Economies, ’15,’16

Inflation( %)

(2014–15)

Inflation (%)

(2015–16)

GDP Growth (%)Increase/decrease in inflation in 2016 vis-à-vis 2015

• Emerging Asia is poised for robust growth in2016 because of large private consumption growth and economic stability in this region.

• Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to pick up slightly as global growth recovers and the effects of low oil prices begin to fade in 2016.

• Although China remains the fastest growing nation, the pace of growth has decelerated. India’s growth is expected to surpass that of China in 2015-16 on the back of strong domestic demand, favorable investments, and uptick in exports.

• Among the developed nations, most of the Eurozone members and Japan are in recovery. The United States has picked up and the US economy is expected to grow by 2.5%.

• Developed nations are facing a deflationary spiral owing to low oil prices. In most emerging countries, inflation was moderately falling in 2015 and 2016 due to oil price collapse and slowdown in activity.

Note: GDP Growth is measured at national currency constant prices.

Source: International Monetary Fund, Frost & Sullivan

World’s 20 Fastest Growing Economies in 2015 and 2016

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World Economic Snapshot—2014–2016

Note: E: Estimate. F: Forecast. Source: International Monetary Fund, Frost & Sullivan

1.6

1.5

1.6 2.4

2.6

2.8

0.2 -3.0 -1.1

7.3 6.8

6.3

7.3 7.3 7.5

1.5 1.4 1.3

0.6

-3.8 -0.6

-0.1

0.6

1.0

The United States

India

China

Japan

South Africa

Brazil

Russia

Germany

Country GDP Growth legends

2014

2015 E

2016 F

GDP Growth of Selected Countries, Global, 2014–2016

Regional GDP Growth legends

0-2%0-2%

2-4%2-4%

>4%>4%

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Snapshot by Key Regions—Top Trends in 2015 and 2016

Latin America• Falling commodity

prices • Brazil’s growth and

reforms• Infrastructure

investment

Latin America• Falling commodity

prices • Brazil’s growth and

reforms• Infrastructure

investmentThe Middle East and Africa• Conflict in countries such as

Libya, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen• Iran nuclear deal• South African economic halt• OPEC oil production

The Middle East and Africa• Conflict in countries such as

Libya, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen• Iran nuclear deal• South African economic halt• OPEC oil production

North America• Strong rebound in US economy• Tightened monetary policy in the

United States• Strengthening of the dollar

North America• Strong rebound in US economy• Tightened monetary policy in the

United States• Strengthening of the dollar

Europe• Greek Crisis: the third bailout program• ECB quantitative easing (QE) and euro depreciation• Strong economic growth in Germany owing to strong

consumption and high employment• North Sea oil glut because of lowered oil prices

Europe• Greek Crisis: the third bailout program• ECB quantitative easing (QE) and euro depreciation• Strong economic growth in Germany owing to strong

consumption and high employment• North Sea oil glut because of lowered oil prices

Asia-Pacific• Yuan depreciation in

China slowdown • Strong investment and

robust government investment in India

• Japan QE held off in October 2015

• ASEAN growth momentum with the launch of AEC on December 31, 2015

Asia-Pacific• Yuan depreciation in

China slowdown • Strong investment and

robust government investment in India

• Japan QE held off in October 2015

• ASEAN growth momentum with the launch of AEC on December 31, 2015

AEC: ASEAN Economic CommunityECB: European Central Bank

ASEAN: Association of Southeast Asian NationsSource: Frost & Sullivan

Key Trends by Regions, Global, 2015-2016

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