MINDSHARE

The (Never-ending) Quest for Holistic

Attribution – The Holy Grail of Marketing

Today’s media landscape is evolving at an unprecedented rate

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BLACK & WHITE TV

FIRST SATELLITE

BROADCAST

RISE OF CABLE TV

MORE ADVERTISER-SUPPORTED NETWORKS

DIGITAL AND

INTERNET REVOLUTION

SMARTPHONES HDTV TABLETS OVER-THE-TOP DISTRIBUTION

CHANGE IS ACCELERATING.

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000 - 2005 2006 - 2011

2012 AND BEYOND

XBOX LIVE CAMERA IN DEVICES/TV-

LEARNING THE CONSUMER

TARGETED ADS

PERSONALIZED RECOMMEND-

ACTIONS

ENHANCED CONTENT SEARCH

CAPABILITIES

CLOUD-BASED CONTENT DELIVERY

SOCIAL TV DIGITAL RADIO VIA MOBILE AND

TABLET APPS

…

DVR FIRST DOWNLOAD-

ABLE CONTENT

SOLD

MP3 PLAYERS

VIDEO STREAMING

DIGITALTV

CONNECTED WORLD

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technology, mobile, digital and social have changed consumers

inFundamental Ways

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Consumers are adding extra new dimensions

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consumersno longer glued to their seats

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TV is still the first screen a

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it’s now multi-screen

reality!7

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Vatican Crowd –2005St. Peter’s Square

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Vatican Crowd –2013St. Peter’s Square

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M A N Y TO ONEO N E T O M A N Y

WHAT USED TO BE… HAS NOW BECOME…

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T hen Now

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Challenges brands face today are not yester year’s

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But the object remains the same…

Right Audience

Right Format

Right Creative & Message

Right Setting (Time, Place, Context)

Reach

Drive Relevance,

Receptivity & Attention

Influence

Maximize Response

Impact

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…and to

suggest ideas & recommend

actions the ‘now what’

and ‘what nexts’

answer key business

questions ‘the whats’

identify actionable insights

the ‘so-whats’ and ‘whys’

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It’s a highly dynamic marketing environment

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The

always-on, always-present, & always-connected consumer

has more

choices in how, where, and when they consume media

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non-linear, continuous and dynamicThe “customer journey”

Each step of the process is connected

to each other in a non-sequential way

Each touchpoint consumers are

exposed to enable countless different scenarios

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are blurred for consumersLines

+MARKETERS

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Marketers are battling with the

growing complexity

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2. Align with the new on-linear, continuous and dynamic Consumer Decision Journey

the pressure is mounting

for marketers to:

1. Demonstrate the value of their campaigns and show what worked or didn’t

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SiteMobile

Social

Email

Search

PCTablet

iTV

With so many touch points wanting to claim credit…

…how do you divide credit?

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What isAttribution?at•tri•bu•tion (ˌa-trə-ˈbyü-shən) n.

the practice of allocating partial value to different touch points within the customer journey which

have influenced a desired outcomethe concept is simple:

give credit where credit is due

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It lets you look inside marketing performance to see exactly how it works – all the moving parts and their interactionsIt shows the cause and the effect, the precise customer path, and the big picture including influences and dependencies

Data is the byproduct of consumers doing thingsATTRIBUTION starts with data

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Veracity

Data UncertaintyManaging the reliability and predictability of inherently

imprecise data types

Velocity

Data in MotionAnalysis of streaming data to enable decisions within

fractions of a second

Volume

Data at ScaleTerabytes to

petabytes of data

Variety

Data in Many FormsStructured, unstructured,

text, multimedia

ValueJust having data is no use unless it can be turned into value

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1. 2.

4. 3.

Audience(Who)

Creative(What)

Placement(Where)

Time(When)

Right Marketin

g Mix

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“Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything

that can be counted counts.”

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Attribution comes in many forms, with various levels of sophistication

However, there are basically two predominant types of attribution models:

HEURISTIC, RULES (Manual

Weightings)

ALGORITHMIC(Statistical

Weightings)

Digital Attribution

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Applies a set percentage of the

credit based on the position in the customer journey

Position based

Lacks reasoning and extremely subjective

Doesn’t recognize the channel that may have acquired the customer

Time Decay

Arbitrary constants used throughout

Doesn’t account for channel costs or likely engagement in acquiring or converting customers

Linear

Assigns credit on a curve

Requires judgment calls/guesswork

Custom

Multi touch

Ignores everything after first click

Not a true reflection of each channel’s role in converting the sale

First Touch

Everything is ignored except last click

Reflects the channel that converted but doesn’t recognize each channels contribution

Last Touch

Everything is ignored except the last channel to show an advertisement

Last Ad Event

Single touch

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Moving towards multi-touch attribution (MTA)

Provides a more realistic assessment of ROI by capturing a holistic picture of the customer journey across channels

A multi-touch attribution model attributes value to observed touch point along the path to conversion

✖Miscalculates ROI by assuming the consumer doesn’t see or click any other ads along the way

A last-touch attribution model attributes entire value of a

conversion to the last ad clicked or seen

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Advertisers track data that they don’t use

a small % of the data you have collected?Single-touch attribution considers only

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But, custom MTA models can still arbitrarily distribute fixed credit to each touchpoint (event/variable)As a result, even though they are considered superior to the other rules-based models, they should all be considered somewhat limited when trying to build a complete measurement and performance picture

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So, what’s the right

tool?

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Marketing is a bit of a

colorful mess

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Do you want to focus on the Brush Strokes?

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Do you want to focus on the Color Mixture?

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Do you want to focus on the Composition?

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Do you want to see the Full Picture?

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Algorithmic AttributionAlgorithmic Weighting:To remove the guesswork in attribution we can use machine-learning and proven sophisticated algorithms to calculate probability-based weightings

Address the limits of current attribution approaches

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Multi-touch Attribution

Algorithmic Attribution Modeling

Reality

Last Click Attribution

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Going deeper to understand the different roles during the customer decision Journey

B

InfluencersWhich channels provide fre-quency and reinforce and re-

inforce the message?

A

Introducers Which elements seed and

capture interest of con-sumers?

C

ClosersWhich channels and net-works contribute the most

conversions?

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Measuring the value of the “introducer”, “influencer” and “closer” are all important

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Blue Player• Scored 5 goals as the last-touch• Scored 0 goals as first-touch• All 5 goals were assisted from other

players.• White player assisted directly in 3 of

his 5 goals• Red player assisted in only 1 of his

goals• Influencer value: 0

• 0 (first-touch) + 0 (assisted) = 0• Direct value: 5 (last touch goals

scored)• Total value: 5

White Player• Scored 1 goal as the last-touch• Scored 0 goals as first-touch• Assist in influencing 5 goals with the Red

Player & Blue Player• Influencer value: 5

• 0 (first-touch) + 5 (assisted): 0• Direct value: 1• Total value: 6

Red Player• Scored 3 goals as the last-touch• Scored 0 goals as first-touch• Assisted in influencing 5 goals with the

White Player & Blue Player• Influencer value: 2

• 0 (first-touch) + 2 (assisted) = 2• Direct value: 3• Total value: 5

Yellow Player• Scored 0 goals as the last touch• Scored 0 goals as first-touch• Assisted in 2-levels deep in 5 goals• Influencer value: 5

• 0 (first-touch) + 5 (assisted @ 2nd level) = 5

• Direct value: 0• Total value: 5

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Economy

Industry Change

sGeographical Location

Time of Day

Day of Week

Competition

Seasonal

Effects

Sophisticated Approach• Takes a look at all media touch points of all users

(including those who didn’t convert)

• Incorporates non-media factors that play a role in purchase behavior

• Uses a statistical algorithm to distribute credit (value)

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One Team, One Goal

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The holy grail: the integration of all touchpoints

TV Direct mail Newspaper Display Social visitWebsite visit Paid search click

Mass and Offline Digital

New Customer

Integrated Marketing Attribution

Model

$

multiple event streams are integrated to offer a more complete & accurate view

of the “customer decision journey”

Integrated, holistic marketing attribution modeling

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Algorithmic Attribution

Marketing Mix ModelingTop down Approach

Bottom up Approach

OutcomesCombining Approaches To

ImproveMarketing Optimization

Bridge traditional & new marketing models

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Machine learning

(e.g., agent-based

models)

Bottom-up (e.g.,

Algorithmic attribution

models

Econometric top-down

(e.g., marketing

mix models)

Next Generation Marketing Attribution Modeling

To drive media forward, we have to maximize the greatest impact of media exposure

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ReachFrequencyImpressions

Exposure

AwarenessOpinionRelevanceConsiderationIntent

Perception

Viewability ReceptivityAttentionParticipation

Engagement

A Framework For Impact-focused Planning

ApplicationsNAAsSpend

Outcome

SearchSiteSocial

Response

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Using a combination of analytical capabilities

Optimization + Decision + Action

What happened?

Mining past data to report, visualize, and understand what has already happened — after the fact

Descriptive

Why did it happen?

Leverages past data to understand the underlying relationship between data inputs and outputs to understand why something happened

Diagnostic

What can I do more?

Determines what “value add” can be provided before the consumer realizes the need

Pre-emptive

What will happen?

Determines which decision and/or action (“what if”) will produce the most effective result against a specific set of objectives and constraints

Predictive

What should I do?

Investigative data to proactively seek opportunities to target (emergent outcomes)

Prescriptive

Sense & Respond Predict & Act

Hindsight Insight Foresight

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Better predict what consumers want or will do

Prediction

Properly quantify the contribution of each action

Attribution

Make continued improvements to campaigns

Optimization

Effectively plan and forecast campaigns across all marketing channels

Planning + Forecasting

Data Insights Actionstransformed to relevant that drives

Leverage the data and insights available in

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Focused at helping brands bridge Information

Capture, transform and visualize relevant data

into meaningful business metrics

Input to Outcome

InsightsIdentify underlying drivers, patterns, & trends; understand

behavior and predict outcome

ImpactOperationalize data driven decisions to realize sustainable

business value

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Valu

eEvent

Data captured

Information delivered

Action taken

Time

Action time

Improve response time to opportunities

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Enlighten

Creating Insights To

Empower

Leveraging Data To

Enable

Using Partners To

THANK YOU