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“…outcomes for major weapon programs are not improving over the 6 years we have been issuing this report.”
2008 GAO ReportAssessment Of Selected Weapon Programs
“Flagship acqusitions continue to:
cost significantly more…
2008 GAO ReportAssessment Of Selected Weapon Programs
“…take longer to produce…
2008 GAO ReportAssessment Of Selected Weapon Programs
“…and deliver less than was promised.”
2008 GAO ReportAssessment Of Selected Weapon Programs
$7B, 20 years, 0 Aircraft
$3B, 8 years, 0 Aircraft
$11B, 7 years, 0 artillery
20% overrun, 20 years
An unreasonably long acquisition cycle…
is a central problem from which most other
acquisition problems stem.- Packard Commission, 1986
“A hallmark of an executable program with a sound business case is short development cycle times.”
2008 GAO ReportAssessment Of Selected Weapon Programs
“The DoD itself suggests that system development should be limited to about 5 years.”
2008 GAO ReportAssessment Of Selected Weapon Programs
“For 32 programs that started since 2001, only 11 even planned their development cycle times to be less than 5 years.”
2008 GAO ReportAssessment Of Selected Weapon Programs
“On average, the current portfolio of programs has experienced a 21-month delay in delivering IOC to the warfighter.”
2008 GAO ReportAssessment Of Selected Weapon Programs
Average Cycle Times
Air ForceAir Force
NavyNavy
0
10
1219
69
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
Pro
gra
m S
tart
to
IOC
(Y
ears
)
ArmyArmy
Source: DSB Briefing, Dan Czelusniak, 12 June 1998
8
6
4
2
1999
Automobile Industry
Packard CommissionPackard Commission
PEM and SPO Surveys N=208
Superior Performance Low Acquisition Cost
Low Operation Costs Shortened Schedule
FourthThirdSecondFirst
100
80
60
40
20
0
FourthThirdSecondFirst
100
80
60
40
20
0
FourthThirdSecondFirst
100
80
60
40
20
0FourthThirdSecondFirst
100
80
60
40
20
0
Axi
s: N
umbe
r of
Pro
gram
s R
espo
ndin
g
Parkinson’s LawWork e-x-p-a-n-d-s
to fill the time allotted.
Ward’s CorollaryWork is compressible .
“… we have too much money…
this overfunding is limiting our ability to innovate…”
“DoD’s planned investments for new weapon systems now reflect the highest funding levels in two decades.”
2008 GAO ReportAssessment Of Selected Weapon Programs
“During this same time period, acquisition outcomes did not improve…”
2008 GAO ReportAssessment Of Selected Weapon Programs
“Total acquisition costs for FY07… increased 26%.
…whereas the 2000 portfolio increased by 6%.”
2008 GAO ReportAssessment Of Selected Weapon Programs
“Total acquisition cost for the current portfolio of major programs… has grown by nearly $300B over initial estimates.”
2008 GAO ReportAssessment Of Selected Weapon Programs
Goodness
Complexity
Complexity Slope
Complication Slope
Simplification Slope
TIME
Goodness
Complexity
Complexity Slope
Goodness
Complexity
Complication Slope
Goodness
Complexity
Simplification Slope
Goodness
Complexity
Simplistic
Complexity Slope
Complex
Complication Slope
Complicated
Simplification Slope
SimpleTIME
Download the free PDF atLulu.com
Goodness
Complexity
Simplification Slope
T IN Y
Schedule
Process
Team
Budget
“If you look at the history
of innovation, you’ll see
one proven recipe for
breakthroughs…”
Take a small, intensely focused team and impose an unreasonable timeframe on it.
- Alan Naumann, CEO & President Calico Commerce, Inc
failn → succeedm
failn
succeedm
“Courageous trust in the face of possible exploitation is the most ethically responsible and organizationally successful approach over the long term.”
