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WINTER 2015-16 & 2016-17David Zenner
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 20152
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 20153
AGENDA
1. Context2. Hypotheses, parameters & output3. Conclusion Winter plan 2015-20164. Impact Return D3 & T2
1. CONTEXT
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 20155
Scope and timeline
The strategic reserves volume is being assessed every year in November.
The assessment is sent to the energy minister to assist him/her in taking a decision on the volume to be contracted for the coming year(s).
Hypotheses are frozen
Input from SPF/FOD
15 OCT. 15 NOV. 15 DEC. 15 JAN.
Elia gives the ministry advice on volume (based on a probabilistic approach)
The ministry advises the energy minister on the volume
Decision on the volume by the energy minister
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 20156
Volume assessment criteria are defined by law
The strategic reserves volume is being assessed for Belgium, in order to meet the following criteria (required by law):
Average LOLE* < 3 hours LOLE P95* < 20 hours
LOLE = Loss of Load Expectation; expected total duration in hours of unserved energy over the winter.
Average LOLE = average value over the simulated future states.
LOLE P95 = percentile 0.95 (1 out of 20 probability) for simulated future states.
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 20157
Volume assessment process is iterative
An iterative process is used to find the required additional volume, for the system to be adequate:
Input data Market model
Analysis
Adequacy criteria met?
NOIncrease the volume of reserves
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 20158
Feedback consultation
• Data Quality‒ More detailed data for surrounding countries (bilateral contacts RTE / Tennet / ENTSO-E) ‒ More time series for climate years (from 13 last year to 40) ‒ Improved load data and data on market response
• Methodology‒ Flow Based included in the volume assessment – import capacity is defined by the flow
based domain ‒ Market response taken into account in the model (cf. Pöyry study)
• Transparency‒ More information on input data and hypotheses in the report ‒ Consultation on volumes
2. HYPOTHESES, PARAMETERS & OUTPUT
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 201510
Input hypotheses and variables for the simulations
Available sources
Generation• Nuclear and fossil
production• Renewables, CHP• Pump/turbine/
Hydro
Operational reserves
Interconnections
Variables
Climatological variables• Solar production• Wind production• Hydro• Temperature
(demand)
Outage of units
Needs
Economical activity (demand)
• Working day/holiday
• Day/night
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 201511
Not only Belgium is modelledData come from different sources
• Belgium and neighboring countries are modelled in detail. Exchanges between countries are determined by the market.
• Strong cooperation with other TSOs is required to assess shortage risk in other countries (can have an impact on Belgian adequacy).
• Data integrated from different sources:- ENTSO-E data (SOAF) for ES, IT, GB, NO, SE, CZ, PL- Pentalateral Energy Forum (PLEF) for AT, CH, FR, DE, NL
and LU- Bilateral contacts with RTE, Tennet, 50Hertz to get latest
hypotheses on generation capacity and load forecast- Alignment with DG Energy for BE- External forecasts (demand growth for Belgium)
12
Forecast of installed renewable capacity for winter 2015-2016
Wind capacity
15-16 16-17 17-180
10002000300040005000600070008000
Solar Wind on Wind off
MW
Solar and wind capacity forecast BE
Solar capacity
Run of River hydro
Hydro storage
Pump Storage (Coo, Plate Taille)
Historical production
Reservoir and capacity
Unit with reservoir. Efficiency of pumping/turbining cycle.
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2015 Wind on = wind onshore; Wind off = wind offshore
13
Relation between French scarcity and Belgian scarcity will be taken into accountMaximum import for BE = 4.500 MW. This import depends on other countries’ net balance towards CWE. If FR and BE need capacity, the BE imports will be reduced.
Example of a reference domain for winter (taking into account BE and FR balances)
BE can import 4.500 MW if FR can export
BE can import < 4.500 MW because FR needs imports for its own adequacy
Balance of FR in MW
Balance of BEin MW
q
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2015
14
Wind and solar generation forecastBased on historical load factors and expected installed capacities
15-16 16-17 17-180
10002000300040005000600070008000
Solar Wind on Wind off
MW
Hourly historical data for wind and solar, per
unit
Installed capacities
Time series wind and solar
Wind on = wind onshore; Wind off = wind offshoreELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2015
15
Demand forecastBased on historical temperature and thermosensitivity of demand
Normalized time series for demand
Thermosensitivity Demand time series
Historical temperature data
Normalized demand = average demand on a given day, removing temperature effects. Working days/weekends are included.Increase of demand due to temperature.
Temperature difference between historical and normalised value.
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2015
16
Climate effects have impact on renewable production and demand• Climate uncertainty modelled using 13 historical years. Correlation is kept between wind, solar and
demand.• For neighboring countries that have a lot of hydro, 3 historical years are used: wet, dry and normal
conditions.
13 series
3 series
For the new calculations this year, 40 time series will be used for all climate effects taken into account
X
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2015
17
Thermal and nuclear units are modelled individuallyWith an outage rate based on historical analysis
Normalised time serie for
load
Thermosensitivity
• Each type of unit has an outage rate based on a historical analysis (2006-2014)• The outage rate expresses the probability of the unit to be out a given day• The model generates for each unit an availability curve for each future state
Total availability of the thermal park for a given countryExample of an hourly time series
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2015
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 201518
Putting together the variables allows us to simulate a large amount of future states
A number of future states are taken into account, using different profiles of renewable production, demand and outages of units.
260* future states
Correlated renewable production & demand Unit outages
Convergence of results is checked
* 260 is the amount of future states modeled last year. This number depends on the convergence of the adequacy parameters.
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 201519
Output includes dispatch of all units, as well as market exchanges between countries
We only look at periods of scarcity when generation does not meet the demand.
Energy Not Served
3. CONCLUSION WINTER PLAN 2015-2016
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 201521
Assumptions Winter plan 2015-2016before decision
17/11 D3T2Combination of a number of measures taken by the government authorities, market parties and system operators (even in the case without Doel 3 and Tihange 2):
• Extension of the service life of Doel 1 and Doel 2 (discussions ongoing) – 866 MW
• Return to the market of around 900 MW of centralised generation and cogeneration
• Contracting of the strategic reserve offers for 804 MW (+ 750 MW contracted in 2014) • Strategic Generation Reserves: 446 MW + 750 MW• Strategic Demand Reserves: 358 MW
• Review of expected peak consumption of around 600 MW
• Reinforce the Northern border with a fourth PST in Zandvliet
• Timetable for all maintenance work to prevent downtime during winter as much as possible
As a result of these actions, security of supply for 2015-2016 expected to comply with legal requirements.
4. IMPACT RETURN D3 & T2
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 201523
• Impact return Doel 3 & Tihange 2: ‒ has definitely a positive impact on the adequacy situation for upcoming winters 2015-2016
and 2016-2017‒ has been taken into consideration – as one of the sensitivity analysis – in the report Elia
submitted to the minister of energy related to the volume to be contracted for winter 2016-2017
• Nevertheless even with the return of Doel 3 & Tihange 2:‒ Import remains necessary for system adequacy ‒ Flexible gas plant necessary for system control and integration of renewables‒ mothballing of gas plant may cause new needs for strategic reserves
Impact Return Doel 3 & Tihange 2
ELIA INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTSMark Berger
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 201525
AGENDA
1. Key drivers of the ongoing Energy Transition2. Expected evolution of renewables3. The investment program 2015 – 2019 to support the transition4. Top Projects Elia5. Raising public acceptance as a guideline
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 201526
1. KEY DRIVERS OF THE ONGOING ENERGY TRANSITION
Key drivers of the Ongoing Energy Transition
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2015
Societal-Political Market-
Technologies
More renewables and decentralized production
New actors ‘prosumers’+ ‘off-grid solutions’
New infrastructure needed Fragmentation of the energy landscape
Evolution of the business models
Acceptance of grid projects
No Nuclear Power Plantsafter 2025
New technologies (HVDC) + storage
28
2. EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF RENEWABLES
( MW installed capacity)
Expected evolution of renewables ( MW installed capacity)
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 201530
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2,772 4,255 5,194 5,860 6,232 6,540 6,947 7,471 8,095 9,851 10,550
Forecasts in line with ENTSO-E scenario EU2020
Installed capacity/year (MW):
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
BiomassSolarWind onshoreWind offshoreHydro
3. THE INVESTMENT PROGRAM 2015 – 2019 TO SUPPORT THE TRANSITION
The investment program 2015 – 2019 to support the transition
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 201532
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
114130
150
254
203
Future
* Belgian part of the project
• €2.3 billion total investments
• Timeline & budget per project: BRABO (€180 million / 2015-2022) ALEGRO (€250 million / 2016-2019/2020)* STEVIN (€340 million / 2014-2019) NEMO (€360 million / 2015-2019)*
Investments are stepped up for the execution of the large infrastructure projects
Grid Expansion Projects Belgium
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 201533
19%
3%
29%
Elia€ 254.2
M
7%
42%26%
2% 24%
Elia€ 366.9
M
13%
35%
Investments 2014 Prospects 2015
Replacements Internal consumption InterconnectionsIntegrating renewables Non electrical investments
In Belgium, Elia is investing circa 3.7 billion EUR over the next decade. Investments are maily driven by replacements and the internal consumption.
4. TOP ELIA PROJECTS
Top Elia Projects
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 201535
1North Sea InitiativePlug at sea for offshore wind
2StevinIntegrate offshore wind & benefit from cross-border trading with UK on land
3Nemo LinkSubsea HVDC-interconnection with UK
5ALEGrOIncrease cross-border capacity with Germany with the first HVDC on land6
UK
4BraboReinforce the Port of Antwerp & increase cross-border capacity with NL
6 Boucle de l’EstReinforce the grid to integrate renewable production
All over the country Build connections with industrials to support economic growth.
Nemo Link
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 201536
Nemo link
36
Nemo Link
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 201537
Nemo link
37
➔ HVDC connection between Herdersbrug (BE) and Richborough (UK)
➔ Increasing security of supply, more market efficiency and integration of renewables
➔ 140 km of undersea & underground cables
➔ Electricity transport capacity of approx. 1000 MW
➔ Timing objective: 2019
Stevin
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 20153838
Stevin
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 20153939
➔ Grid reinforcement project 380 kV in Belgium’s coastal region
➔ Essential for further economic development, for integration and transportation of offshore wind energy and exchanging energy with UK
➔ 37 km lines & 10 km cables➔ Timing objective: end 2017
Brabo
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 20154040
Phase 2Rechteroever: Zandvliet - Lillo Liefkenshoek End horizon 2018 - 2019
Phase 3Linkeroever: Liefkenshoek – Mercator End horizon 2023
Phase 1Zandvliet - Doel and Zandvliet 2nd
Phase Shifter End 2016
Brabo
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 20154141
Phase 2Rechteroever: Zandvliet - Lillo Liefkenshoek End horizon 2018 - 2019
Phase 3Linkeroever: Liefkenshoek – Mercator End horizon 2023
Phase 1Zandvliet - Doel and Zandvliet 2nd
Phase Shifter End 2016 ➔ Grid reinforcement project in and
for the Port of Antwerp area
➔ Essential for further economic growth & connection of new production plants
➔ Increases cross border exchange possibilities with the Netherlands
ALEGrO
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 20154242
ALEGrO
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 20154343
➔ First HVDC-interconnection between BE (Elia) and GE (Amprion)
➔ European priority project➔ 100 km underground cable
between Lixhe (BE) and Oberzier (GE)
➔ Transmission capacity of approx. 1000 MW
➔ Timing objective : horizon 2019-2020
5. RAISING PUBLIC ACCEPTANCEAS A GUIDELINE
Raising public acceptance as a guideline
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 201545
Bundling of infrastructures
Undergrounding
Ecological corridor management
Communication and collaboration with stakeholders1
24
5Use of existing powerlines3
The Elia desires to create a better understanding of grid development needs through:
Elia strives to achieve an overall net positive impact on people, nature and landscape
CWE FLOW-BASED MARKET COUPLINGFrank Vandenberghe(Introduction to the panel discussion)
ELIA STAKEHOLDERS' DAY | FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 201547
48
Developing the EU market is about …
Integration ofthe European Electricity Market
Flow based market coupling NWE and CEE regionsCooperation with Power Exchanges
Developing methods, tools and market processes
Capacity allocation and congestion management Developing network codesMarket
Products and Platforms
Developing new market products Auction platforms for ancillary services
05/02/2023
Developing the EU market
49 05/02/2023
2010CWE
2014NWE
2015
MRCMulti-Regional Coupling
Central-West Europe: Belgium, France,
Germany, Netherlands, Luxembourg
North-West Europe:NWE + UK, Scandinavia
SWESouth-West Europe:
Spain, Portugal
CSECentral-South Europe:
Italy
2015: Flow-based
50 05/02/2023
Flow-based: how are exchange capacities currently determined?
Exchange capacities can then be calculated(taking into account the N-1 principle and available remedial actions)
With the recent flow-based methodology, the available capacity for each grid element canbe defined (= no longer per border)
24 common grid models each day
Every TSO builds its best forecasts for Day+2:
• Topology• Consumption • Distribution of generation• Solar and wind generation
Day-Ahead Market Coupling
51 02/05/2023
Daily process to optimise the market results for the next day
By TSOsvia Coreso
CapacitiesBy market parties(via exchanges)
Order books
By exchangesOptimisation by Euphemia at
international level
Algorithm
per hub / per hour
Net Positionsper hub / per hour
Prices
52 05/02/2023
Flow-based market coupling & impact on energy prices
(based on 19164 representative hours between 01/01/2013 and 19/05/2015)
Price decrease of € 3.1 in Belgium
100% optimum ( = purely hypothetical) Price with flow-based Price with previous mechanism