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The Fourth
European Lean Educator Conference
November 2017
The Forgotten, The Ignored, The Possible
John Bicheno
Why this talk?
Has ‘Lean’ been hijacked? (or drifted away ?)
I hope not, but....
• First, the pioneers had valuable thoughts that it would
be a waste to re-learn
• Second, what a waste to ignore several valuable
contributions.
• Third, we stand on the brink of a new Lean
opportunities....and threats..
BUT FIRST...
Last years’ ELEC was near Bletchley.
The Codebreakers
•An eclectic mix of
skills
•Hierarchy downplayed
•Clear purpose but little
‘standard work’
•Excellent
communication• Vs. German codebreakers
Alan Turing and first computer
Gorden Welchman and beginnings
of internet
This years’ ELEC is near Arnhem Nijmegen
Failures of the Battle
•Refusal to listen to the
evidence
•Guarding own ‘silos’
and reputations
•Over ambitious
•Not making good use of
available resources A Bridge Too Far
Let us try to avoid these!
The forgotten...
The Fathers of Lean? Ford and Taylor
• ‘Nothing could have been further from Taylorism than Ford’s
assembly line. Whereas Taylor designed ideal shovels, Ford
abolished shoveling by using electric cranes, moving belts, and other
devices as aids to continuous flow manufacturing. Taylor retrained a
worker to to do the same job more efficiently; the assembly line
redefined and simplified jobs. Taylor offered workers incentives to do
piecework more quickly; Ford made piece rates pointless...Instead
workers received a high fixed wage...Taylor maximised efficiency...
Ford transformed the means of production. Taylor saved time; Ford
sped up time..’
Bicheno at ELEC 2017 6
From David Nye, ‘America’s Assembly Line’,
MIT Press, 2013, page 34
But in a complex world, Taylor is increasingly irrelevant….
…so, bring on the women….
Mothers of Lean: Lillian Gilbreth, Mary Follett
Toyota Founding Concepts?
• First published in 1859, still available
• ‘The spirit of self help is the root of all genuine growth in the individual; and, exhibited in the lives of many, it constitutes the true source of national vigor and strength’
• By learning to be more efficient, employees could improve the quality of their own lives and those of co-workers. They could also improve the quality of life for the people who used the products they made, which were consequently of more use and value.
• ‘The greatest results in life are usually attained by the exercise of ordinary qualities… they who are the most persistent, and work with the truest spirit, will usually be the most successful.’
• Self Help - many great mean of humble origins, and self taught – who learned by doing and observation
Bicheno at ELEC 2017 8
The book is on
display at
Sakichi Toyoda’s
birthplace
The guys who (re)started it all
Bicheno at ELEC 20179
Richard Schonberger and ‘Doc’ Hall(both have been to LERC, Cardiff)
1982
(8 years before ‘The Machine’)
Ignored (or misunderstood)
Schonberger and Inventory Turns
...and
Toyota in
Formula 1:
Agility?
Culture?
Location?
Ignored? Open Book Management
Real ‘Respect’ ?
But
“Just as empowerment without
sharing fails, so does sharing
without empowerment.”
Gen. Stanley McChrystal
Ignored: Yerkes-Dodson (1908)
perf
orm
ance
stress
This, with Parkinson (see next), is the
Great office and service challenge!
Parkinson’s Law (1957)
• ‘Work Expands to fill
the time available for
its completion’
• Ronald Reagan, when governor of California, asked Parkinson to explain why the number of painters on San Francisco's Oakland bridge increased from 14 to 72 once a labour-saving paint sprayer had been introduced.
• Parkinson's Law has been applied in many different contexts. There is the IT version, for instance: “Data expands to fill the space available for storage.” Or the road transport version: “Traffic expands to fill the roads available for it.”
• NHS administrators have grown from less than 10% in the 1950’s to more than 40% now.
Misused? ‘The Cult of the Expert’
• Business Schools as
‘Temples of the Cult’
– Parachute in
– Quick gains & rewards
– Quantitative and $
– No Gemba interest or
experience
– ‘Superficial response
through case studies’
(Mintzberg)
Gemba experience: the path to promotion?
Now, landsmen all whoever you may be
If you want to rise to the top of the tree
If you soul isn’t fettered to an office stool
Be careful to be guided by this Golden Rule
Stick close to you desks and never go to sea
And you all may be rulers of the Queen’s Navy(The First Sea Lord’s Song)
(Gilbert and Sullivan 1878)
Ignored? Kingman’s Equation
Bicheno at ELEC 201717
lead
tim
e
30% Utilisation 100%
Zero variation
Small uncertainty
Moderate variation
High uncertainty
L = (C2a + C2
e)/2 x ( / (1- )) x te + te
• Causes of muda
• 100% (!)
• Arrival variation
• = load/capacity
Muri Mura
Resource Efficiency and Flow Efficiency
Bicheno at ELEC 2017 18
30% Utilisation 100%
(Resource efficiency)
The Lean
Sweet
Spot
Lead
tim
e (
Flo
w e
ffic
ien
cy)
Process time
Can’t both be
achieved
simultaneously,
but can
be approachedFocused
application
of Lean
tools
For instance..
(Modig and Åhlström)
Extending Kingman brings them together!
Real Demand + Unnecessary Demand Utilization =
Load =
Capacity = Base Capacity - Waste
Glenday (Sieve) Pareto
(80/20 & RRS)
Seddon
(Failure Demand)
Hopp and Spearman
(Flow and interactions)
Hinckley
(Mistakes)
Ohno
(Waste)
Goldratt
(Bottlenecks)
Shingo
(SMED,
Pokayoke)
…Utilization and Leadtime is NON LINEAR!
Ignored: Operations Research
Three quick stories.....
• Chip placement and the Travelling Salesman problem
• Supply Chain and ‘Transportation’ / Linear
Programming
• Healthcare Hospitals and DEA (Data Envelopment
Analysis)
Why Six Sigma?
Why not O.R.?
‘The Science of Better’ (INFORMS)
The Possible : Opportunity..and Threat
Lean: CI and Disruption
Bicheno at ELEC 2017 22
Tools
Era
Six
Sigma Era
Quality
Era
‘People’
Era
‘System’
Era
Lean Product
Design
‘Design
Thinking’
‘Lean Service’
AI
Lean Startup
& MVP
RPA
3D Print &
Addit Mfg
Agile IT
& SCRUM
?
AR
Blockchain
Disruption
is needed
?? ?
Lean : Reaching out ?
LeanBehavioural
Economics
Creativity
TRIZ and
VE / VA
Value = Benefits / (Costs + Harms)Ideality and Trends
Someone has already solved it..
System1 (Hunch, intuition))
To System 2 (Analysis, Probability)
Rational to Biased
Kirton’s Adaptor-Innovator Theory
Divergent and Convergent Thinking
Moore’s Law has years to run...
• Doubling of transistors every 2 years (18
months ?) since mid 1970’s
• Slowing to every 4 years?
• Some predict it has years to run. Intel CEO
in 2017 said it was ‘alive and well’
• Think about your phone capability
– 2 X by 2020; 4 X by 2023 (!!)
• Implications for Lean
– E.g. In 2016 a CNC operator in
Birmingham UK showed me how he
links with a ‘club’ of other operators
throughout the world….on his phone.
Flexible Adidas sole
emerging from 3D PrinterBut a more powerful tool would be
wasted without a mindset re-think
What is possible is not necessarily efficient
• ‘Efficiency remains important, but the ability
to adapt to complexity and continual
change has become an imperative.’
– Gen Stanley McChrystal, Team of Teams,
Penguin, 2015
• Learning from Nelson and Trafalgar
– Not the battle plan itself, but the preparation of
Captain’s independent thought, fostered for
many years prior to the battle
• Avoiding the Perry Principle
– The more visible something is, or the easier it
is to communicate, the greater the temptation
to control.
Converging Themes?
Waterfall
IT Design Factory SchedulingPeople and
MotivationProjects
Agile
SCRUM
and Sprints
Stage
Gates
Big
Transformation
Plans
Kaizen
Blitz
Kata
Optimization,
OR, LP
MRP, TOC
Batches
Kanban
Heijunka
DDMRP
Change
whole
culture
Top down
KPI’s
Small wins
CPA,
PERT
Last
Planner
Simultaneous
and
Concurrent
Eng.
Set BasedLean
Startup
Bicheno at ELEC 2017 26
Small Wins and Agile
• Lean Startup
– Build, Measure, Learn
– Minimum viable product
• Sprints vs.. Waterfall
• ‘Show me the evidence’
• Lean ‘UX’
Bicheno at ELEC 201727
Some References (outside of Lean)
28
Kata
Deliberate
Practice
‘Small and
varied Wins’
‘Yet’ and
Belief
Bicheno at ELEC 2017
Dan Gilbert:
‘Pathways in the Brain’
‘The more you do something..
Duhigg
‘Habit’
Amabile on
Small Wins Motivation
Kahneman on
Confirmation Bias,
Israeli recruits, +++
Carol Dwek
on Mindset
Colvin on Talent
The 10k hour rule,
With feedback
Some References (Lean)
29
Kata
Deliberate
Practice
‘Small and
varied Wins’
‘Yet’ and
Belief
Bicheno at ELEC 2017
Maurer on
‘Kaizen: One Small Step…’
Spear on Experiments
& Jack Smith
Ohno on
Thinking People
Graupp
On JI
NUMMI and
Workforce
transformation
Rother
Mann on
Leader
Standard
Work
TWI
(JR)
Koenigsaecker
On repeated kaizens
Glenday
‘Economics of Repetition
Lean: Back to the Future?
Lean(Manufacturing
and Service)
Systems Theory
Behavioural
Economics
TRIZ and VE
Operations
Researchand Analytics
Six Sigma
Accounting for Leanand Measures
AgileSoftware
and Projects
Lean Designand Design Thinking
TPM
DDMRP
Factory
Physics
TOC
TWI
AutomationAI, AR, RPA, 3D, Robots
The future of (Lean) is past
(Adapted from Rus Ackoff)
Summary of Trends (and hopes!)
• Growth to sustainability
• Exponential to S curve
• (External) Implementing to (Internal) Leading
• Big kaizen to many small
• Narrow Lean to Encompassing Lean
• Humble Experts
• Projects to Ongoing
• ‘Team of Teams’
• Individual improvement to Team improvement
• Linear to Feedback
• Rational economic man to behavioral man
• Shop floor to design office
• Closed book to open book
• MPS to buffers
• From manager to gardener
• Cradle to grave to cradle to cradle
• Free, Perfect and Now
A threat to conventional mindset ?
So, back to Bletchley and Arnhem
Selective standardisation
Training: more on teams, less on individuals (Kata, TWI)
More flexible, participative organisation
Learn from the military: Away from the Perry Principle
Learn from Agile: Sprints, Scrum: The power of small wins
Reaching out: the power of OR, TRIZ, Behav Economics
Brain pathways + Small Wins + Belief
As the world changes, so must Lean
The Fourth
European Lean Educator Conference
November 2017
The Forgotten, The Ignored, The Possible
John Bicheno