DISASTER MANAGEMENT

MODELS

WHAT IS MODEL Scientific theories are constructed to explain,

predict, and master phenomena (e.g., inanimate things, events, or behavior of animals).

A scientific theory can be thought of as a model of reality, and its statements as axioms of some axiomatic system

Model seeks to represent empirical objects, phenomena, and physical processes in a logical and objective way.

All models are in simulacra, that is, simplified reflections of reality, but despite their inherent falsity, they are nevertheless extremely useful

WHY MODELS Simplify complex events by helping to

distinguish between critical elements Better understanding of the current

situation An essential element in quantifying

disaster events Establish a common base of

understanding

CLASSIFICATION OF DISASTER MANAGEMENT MODELS

Logical: Traditional Model, Expand – Contract Model

Integrated: Manitoba Model, Weichselgartner Model

Cause – effect Model: Pressure – release Model, Access Model

Others: Probability Model, Sustainable Livelihood Model

LOGICAL MODELS Simple definition of disaster stages and

emphasize the basic events and actions which constitute a disaster

Two phases pre-disaster risk-reduction post-disaster recovery phase.

TRADITIONAL DISASTER MODEL

Disaster

EXPAND – CONTRACT MODEL

Pre v e ntion a nd m itiga tion s tra nd

Pre pa re dne s s s tra nd R e lie f a nd

R e s pons e s tra nd

R e c ov e ry a nd R e ha bilita tion s tra nd

Figure 2 E xpand – C ontra ct M odel

T im e

CRISIS

KELLY’S MODEL

INTEGRATED MODEL An integrated disaster management

model is a means of organizing related activities to ensure their effective implementation

Main components Hazard assessment Risk management Mitigation Preparedness.

MANITOBA MODEL

MANITOBA MODEL

WEICHSELGARTNER MODEL

WEICHSELGARTNER MODEL Natural hazard analysis Exposure analysis Preparedness analysis Prevention analysis Response analysis Vulnerability analysis

CAUSE-EFFECT MODEL Framework for understanding the

causes of a disaster Progression of vulnerability of a

community is revealed and the underlying causes that fail to satisfy the demands of the people are identified

CAUSE-EFFECT MODEL Pressure – release Model Access Model

OTHER MODEL Sustainable Livelihood Model Keller and Al-madhari model for the

probabilistic prediction of disaster magnitude consequences and return period.

Shrivastava model for industrial crisis Ibrahim-Razi et al.’s model for

technological disaster

SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHOODS FRAMEWORK A livelihood comprises the capabilities,

assets (including both materials and social resources) and activities required for a means of life. A livelihood is sustainable when it can cope with and recover from stress and shocks and maintain or enhance its capabilities and assets both now and in the future, while not undermining the natural resource base

SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHOODS FRAMEWORK