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Expansion of electric vehicle infrastructure is imperative to the success of EV adoption. While demand remains unknown, many experts have forecasted over a million EVs will enter the US market in the next decade (Levin, 2010). If hybrid adoption rates are an indicator of EV adoption, then the City of Berkeley (CoB) can expect to have one of the highest EV adoption rates in the country. While CoB is interested in investing in EV infrastructure, this does create financial risk. In order to maximize citizen benefit while minimizing the city’s financial risk, Team dEVA recommends the following three high level strategies (see presentation)
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Developing ElectricValue Added
December 17, 2010
Justin Bean
Katie Dunn
Rudi Halbright
Obrie Hostetter
Tim McLaughlin
Developing Electric Value Added
Developing Electric Value Added
Developing Electric Value Added
Developing Electric Value Added
Developing Electric Value AddedDeveloping Electric Value Added
Outline
Developing Electric Value Added
Berkeley’s Climate Action Plan
Developing Electric Value Added
• 80% Reduction by 2050 and 33% Reduction by 2020
• Potential to Save to 140,000 Metric Tons of CO2
Developing Electric Value Added
Who is Berkeley?
• Population 107,000• 67% have bachelors degree+• Berkeley FIRST• PACE
Developing Electric Value Added
Technology Overview
EV Vs PHEV
ChargingLevel 1 120 Volts 8 to 20 hours
Level 2 220 to 240 Volts 4 to 6 hours
Faster Charger (DC) 480 Volts 10 to 30 Minutes
Developing Electric Value Added
Market Overview
• 841,000 EV & PHEV’s by 2015• Favorable Federal and State Policies
• 14.4B – ARRA • Consumer Tax Credits
$7,500 fed tax credit $5,000 CA tax credit $2,000 fed tax credit for charging
Developing Electric Value Added
Market Overview- Hybrids are a predictor of EV sales
Developing Electric Value Added
Market Overview- EV Demand in Berkeley
• 2.8% of vehicle registrations are Hybrids• Toyota - 500 PHEV’s on waiting list• Nissan – Sold out!
Developing Electric Value Added
Focus of other cities
Portland
Key Focus
All car commuters
Key Strategies
Easy access to charging
stations and permitting
Leverage municipal EV fleet
to set precedent for
adoption
New York
Key Focus
Early adopters only
Key Strategies
Commercial parking
garages
Not offering incentives, only
supporting demand
San Francisco
Key Focus
Long-term integrated
transportation plan
Key Strategies
Public parking in dense
areas
Alliances with car share
programs
Utilize existing assets
Developing Electric Value Added
Strategy Canvas
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SWOT Highlights
Strengths•Progressive Berkeley residents•CAP goals•Measure R•Small city: minimal EV infrastructure big impact
Weaknesses•Barriers to residential charging•Late for grants•Funding
Threats•Other alternative fuel vehicles might prevail•CoB disconnected from Bay Area corridor•Charging technology not completely standardized
Opportunities•2nd mover to learn from other cities•Can be leading city for range of options•Funding available•Bay area network
Developing Electric Value Added
Future Scenarios
Developing Electric Value Added
Recommendations
Facilitate EV usage for early adopters• Charging strategies for EV-driver profiles• Fast-track permitting• Carshare and commercial parking lot charging• Secure grant monies and incentives ASAP
Within 3 months
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• Monitor Station usage for future siting
• Install opportunity charging stations in shopping districts and high-traffic areas
• Develop transportation integration strategies
• Encourage use of the entire transportation system
Within 3 to 6 monthsRecommendations
Developing Electric Value Added
Evaluate & Educate
Within 18 months and on-going
Move 2nd• Move 2nd: reduce risks and
costly mistakes
• Monitor other cities’ solutions
• Disseminate information online and through community
• Showcase innovative pilot projects, including educational components
for the community
Recommendations
Developing Electric Value Added
Not recommended at this time
Challenges: •Uncertain commitment to charging technology •Permitting issues•No clear solutions in other cities•Large, complicated investment•Lack of data
Residential Curbside Charging
Developing Electric Value Added
Short-term recommendations•Push EV parking & charging policies
•Provide information about other charging options
•Encourage communities to install charging stations on private property
•Encourage permittable owner-initiated solutions
•Facilitate relationships between private owners of charging stations and EV owners
Residential Curbside Charging
Developing Electric Value AddedDeveloping Electric Value Added
Our TaskBuild low-risk model that is financially and environmentally sustainable.
Four ModelA. Grid PoweredB. ClimateSmartC. PV PurchaseD. PV Lease
Constraints• Lack of data• Limited budget
Financial Analysis: Charging Station Network
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Finding WACC
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WACC = [ D/V * (1-T) * Rd ] + [ E/V * Re ]
Developing Electric Value AddedDeveloping Electric Value Added
Municipal Bonds•10 yr•AA•Callable•Revenue
Finding WACC
Developing Electric Value AddedDeveloping Electric Value Added
3 Steps:1. Input assumptions2. Compare scenarios
NPV IRR Payback Capital Outlay
3. Make conclusion
The Tool
Developing Electric Value AddedDeveloping Electric Value Added
3 4 Steps:1. Input assumptions2. Compare scenarios
NPV IRR Payback Capital Outlay
3. Make conclusion4. Monitor,
reassess assumptions
X
The Tool
Developing Electric Value AddedDeveloping Electric Value Added
NPV (thousands)
IRRCapital
Investment(thousands)
Payback Period
(years)
A: Grid Energy $490 103% $49 1.2
B: ClimateSmart
$486 102% $49 1.1
C: PV Purchase $190 5% $1,120 10.0
D: PV Lease $593 79% $80 1.4
Our Calculations
Developing Electric Value AddedDeveloping Electric Value Added
A Visual Comparison
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A Visual Comparison: Flipped
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Variables • daily demand• charging price
Sensitivity Analysis: IRR
Developing Electric Value AddedDeveloping Electric Value Added
Our TaskBuild low risk model that isfinancially andenvironmentally sustainable.
Recommended ScenarioA. BaselineB. ClimateSmartC. PV PurchaseD. PV Lease*
*Invest in charging stations, monitor real demand, then move forward.
Financial Analysis Summary
Developing Electric Value Added
In Sum
Start now•Grant money for stations•Appease early adopters
Emergent Strategy•Monitor other cities•Monitor local demand
Systems ApproachEVs are not THE answer but a part of it