presented to

Windsor Chamber of Commerce

Retail Market Analysis and Strategic Positioning Strategy

presented by

Christa Johnson, Assistant Town Manager

David Kelley, Project Manager

November 16, 2010

2

Town Economic Development Update

• Old Redwood Highway Streetscape Design

• Town-Wide Wayfinding Signage Program

• Planning & Building Director Position

• 2011 Leadership Grant Program

• Chamber Agreement

– Sonoma County Visitor Guide Ad

3

Key Development Projects & Opportunities

Key Development Projects

• G&C Auto Body

• Marcussin Winery

• Multi-Contact

• St. Joseph Urgent Care

• UPTick Tasting Room

• Chase Bank

• Burbank Housing 65-unit Windsor Redwoods

Future Opportunities

• Bell Village

• Old Fire Station Site

• Proposed Shiloh Marketplace Shopping Center

4

Background

• The Windsor Economic Development Strategic Plan (EDSP) recommended development of a retail positioning strategy.

• Action 5.3.1 of the EDSP’s Retail Expansion Initiative recommends that Town staff work to

“develop a clear market position and strategy for Windsor’s most concentrated commercial

areas to ensure retail development is complementary, well-planned and fills a needed gap.”

5

Purpose

• The positioning strategy is intended to:

– Maximize retail sales capture.

– Improve the overall retail mix in specific commercial districts.

– Provide Strategies that support successful redevelopment Downtown and in other locations in the Town.

– Evaluate the potential impacts of the retail component of the Bell Village Project.

6

ABAG Population, Households, and Jobs Estimates and Forecasts

Area/Item 2000 2010 2035 # %Avg

Annual # %Avg

Annual

Town of WindsorPopulation 22,744 27,600 30,900 4,856 21.4% 2.0% 3,300 12.0% 0.5%Households 7,589 9,290 10,370 1,701 22.4% 2.0% 1,080 11.6% 0.4%Jobs 5,960 5,850 11,110 -110 -1.8% -0.2% 5,260 89.9% 2.6%

Sonoma CountyPopulation 458,614 497,900 561,500 39,286 8.6% 0.8% 63,600 12.8% 0.5%Households 172,403 188,340 211,290 15,937 9.2% 0.9% 22,950 12.2% 0.5%Jobs 221,490 218,360 325,110 -3,130 -1.4% -0.1% 106,750 48.9% 1.6%

Sources: Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG); Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.

2000-2010 2010-2035

7

Local Retail Context

8

Household Retail Demand

Retail Sales and Estimated DemandSources: Town of Windsor: BLS Expenditure Survey; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

Apparel Stores GeneralMerchandise

HomeFurnishings

andAppliances

Bldg. Matrl.And Farm

Implements

Auto Dealersand AutoSupplies

Other RetailStores

Food Stores Eating andDrinkingPlaces

ServiceStations

2008 Aggregate HH Retail Expenditures ($1,000s) 2007/2008 Retail Sales in Windsor ($1,000s) [1]

Leakage

Leakage

Leakage

Leakage

9

Estimated Townwide Future Retail Demand (square feet)

(2008-2035) (2008-2035)Aggregate Net 2035 Demand

Retail Exps. Increase Avg. Sales for RetailItem % Change ($1,000s) per Sq. Ft. Square Footage

ABAG Projections, 2035 56% $150,760 $390 386,565 No Growth in Income 25% $67,265 $390 172,476

High Growth Estimate 119% $318,838 $390 817,534

EPS Growth Estimate 81% $214,884 $390 550,986

10

Summary of Findings

1) Desirable quality of life factors have contributed to a rapid expansion of the Town’s population during the past decade.

2) Households in the Town are younger, more diverse, and wealthier than households in the County.

3) The ABAG projections for Windsor indicate the Town’s households are expected to increase by 1,080 new units between 2010 and 2035, or 0.4 percent per year, which would mark a dramatic slowdown from the previous decade.

4) For this exercise, EPS recommends assuming that new units will increase by 3,000 Townwide between 2010 and 2035 (average of 120 units/year).

11

Summary of Findings (continued)

5) Consistent with national economic trends, retail sales in the Town of Windsor peaked in 2006 before falling in 2007, 2008, and 2009.

6) A retail capture/leakage analysis comparing local household spending to actual local sales indicates that the Town is capturing more outside spending than it is losing to other jurisdictions.

7) While retail in Windsor is generally strong, several retail categories—such as apparel stores and eating and drinking places—are “leaking” sales to other jurisdictions.

12

Summary of Findings (continued)

8) Based on population and employment projections in 2035, Townwide retail demand in 2035 is estimated to increase by 81 percent.

9) A new specialty grocery store—one that is focused on high quality, local and organic produce and specializing in prepared foods—could be successful in the Town of Windsor, particularly in the Downtown area.

10)The amount of retail proposed at the Bell Village site represents nearly 12 percent of the total retail square footage required to meet Townwide demand during the next 25 years.

13

Summary of Findings (continued)

11)The mix of retail uses proposed for the Bell Village site is not likely to compete directly with Downtown retailers, and, therefore, is unlikely to have a physical impact on the Downtown retail environment in terms of increased vacancies.

12)Windsor also attracts visitors from beyond its Market Area who are drawn by the Town’s events and visitor-serving retail, but there is potential for the Town to capture an even greater share of the County’s visitor activity.

14

Recommended Strategies and Actions

1) To make use of underutilized sites, capture an increased share of the visitor market, and strengthen Downtown retail, prepare a Master Plan for the Civic Center, Library, Huerta Gym, 100 Market sites.

2) Work to attract a niche-market, specialty grocery store that specializes in high-quality foods, fresh produce, and prepared foods to Downtown Windsor.

3) Ensure that the design of the Old Redwood Highway street and pedestrian improvements serves to integrate the existing Downtown street pattern and the future retail uses at Bell Village.

15

Recommended Strategies and Actions (continued)

4) Monitor and evaluate demand for a hotel/conferencing facility to enhance the Town’s image in the visitor market and provide meeting and activity space for the community.

5) Windsor needs to explore branding options that resonate with the Town’s family values and location in the heart of Sonoma’s wine country, that are not limited to summer activities on the Town Green.

6) Recognize that there are opportunities for Old Downtown to serve two distinct populations: day-to-day Downtown residents and employees, and visitors, and that the Town should work to cater to each group.

16

Recommended Strategies and Actions (continued)

7) To the extent possible, encourage the types of businesses that generate business-to-business sales by supporting retention and expansion efforts.

8) Preserve land designated as Gateway Commercial in the southern portion of Town for regional-serving big box stores.

9) Unless there is a particular business able to invest in the northern portion of Town (i.e., Sanderson Ford relocating from Healdsburg), retail zoned land may be better suited to residential or mixed-use in the long term.

17

Next Steps

• Staff will continue to implement the EDSP and key components of the Retail Strategy.

– Current budget and Capital Improvement Program

– FY 2011-2013 budget cycles

• Projects underway or planned include:– Old Redwood Highway Streetscape

– Civic Center Loop Project

– Hotel/Conference Center Feasibility Study

– Targeted Business Recruitment Campaign

• Funding– Combination of General Fund revenues,

Redevelopment funding and grant funding.

18

Questions?

• Questions or comments?