California’s high desert real estate market (hdrein webinar) july 2013 - final (3)

LEVERAGING THE LATEST DISTRESSED MARKET TRENDS

HIGH DESERT REAL ESTATE INVESTOR NETWORK

© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

WELCOME

WHAT WE’LL COVER TODAY

• A brief bit on RealtyTrac• RealtyTrac midyear foreclosure report (released today)!– National Overview– California Overview– High Desert Overview

• RealtyTrac Tour


IS THE FORECLOSURE CRISIS OVER?


http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=UmiyoWX3KTGtDM&tbnid=n4OHfDl62of6AM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2008/10/cartoons_barack_obamas_economi.html&ei=PePdUdu_I4rWigLPsYHgBA&bvm=bv.48705608,d.cGE&psig=AFQjCNFObjPEMVXp8c0kSIR3N42tGGatwQ&ust=1373582324962235

REALTYTRAC DATA PRIMER

Economic

Neighborhood & Local

MLS

Sales & Loan

Valuation& Prop Details

Foreclosure


REALTYTRAC DATA PRIMER

County-Level Public Documents• Pre-foreclosure, foreclosure auction and REO• Sales & Loan• Valuation and property characteristics

MLS• Listing status, price and other info• Property description and more characteristics

Publicly available datasets• Neighborhood features, amenities, red flags• Macro housing and economic metrics


A NATIONAL OVERVIEW


Leveraging RealtyTrac Data

THE BIG PICTURE – FORECLOSURE BY TYPE (2005 -2013)


THE BIG PICTURE – FORECLOSURES & UNEMPLOYMENT (2005 -2013)


Jan-0

5

Mar-

05

May

-05

Jul-0

5

Sep-0

5

Nov-05

Jan-0

6

Mar-

06

May

-06

Jul-0

6

Sep-0

6

Nov-06

Jan-0

7

Mar-

07

May

-07

Jul-0

7

Sep-0

7

Nov-07

Jan-0

8

Mar-

08

May

-08

Jul-0

8

Sep-0

8

Nov-08

Jan-0

9

Mar-

09

May

-09

Jul-0

9

Sep-0

9

Nov-09

Jan-1

0

Mar-

10

May

-10

Jul-1

0

Sep-1

0

Nov-10

Jan-1

1

Mar-

11

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Sep-1

1

Nov-11

Jan-1

2

Mar-

12

May

-12

Jul-1

2

Sep-1

2

Nov-12

Jan-1

3

Mar-

13

May

-13

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12U.S. Foreclosure Activity & Unemployment Rate - (2005 -2013)

U.S. Foreclosure Filings U.S. Unemployment Rate

FORECLOSURES & INTEREST RATE SHOCK! - (2005 -2013)


Jan-0

5

Feb-0

5

Mar-05

Apr-05

May-05

Jun-0

5Ju

l-05

Aug-05

Sep-0

5

Oct-05

Nov-05

Dec-05

Jan-0

6

Feb-0

6

Mar-06

Apr-06

May-06

Jun-0

6Ju

l-06

Aug-06

Sep-0

6

Oct-06

Nov-06

Dec-06

Jan-0

7

Feb-0

7

Mar-07

Apr-07

May-07

Jun-0

7Ju

l-07

Aug-07

Sep-0

7

Oct-07

Nov-07

Dec-07

Jan-0

8

Feb-0

8

Mar-08

Apr-08

May-08

Jun-0

8Ju

l-08

Aug-08

Sep-0

8

Oct-08

Nov-08

Dec-08

Jan-0

9

Feb-0

9

Mar-09

Apr-09

May-09

Jun-0

9Ju

l-09

Aug-09

Sep-0

9

Oct-09

Nov-09

Dec-09

Jan-1

0

Feb-1

0

Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10

Jun-1

0Ju

l-10

Aug-10

Sep-1

0

Oct-10

Nov-10

Dec-10

Jan-1

1

Feb-1

1

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-1

1Ju

l-11

Aug-11

Sep-1

1

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-1

2

Feb-1

2

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-1

2Ju

l-12

Aug-12

Sep-1

2

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-1

3

Feb-1

3

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-1

3

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

Total Foreclosure Filings (RealtyTrac) 30-Year Fixed Rate (Freddie Mac)

U S Foreclosures and Freddie Mac Interest Rate Data - (2005-2013)

THE BIG PICTURE – FORECLOSURE STARTS & COMPLETIONS


Nearly 10.5 million starts and 5.2 million

completions (REO) since January 2006

Jan-07

Mar-0

7

May-07

Jul-0

7

Sep-07

Nov-07Ja

n-08

Mar-0

8

May-08

Jul-0

8

Sep-08

Nov-08Ja

n-09

Mar-0

9

May-09

Jul-0

9

Sep-09

Nov-09Ja

n-10

Mar-1

0

May-10

Jul-1

0

Sep-10

Nov-10Ja

n-11

Mar-1

1

May-11

Jul-1

1

Sep-11

Nov-11Ja

n-12

Mar-1

2

May-12

Jul-1

2

Sep-12

Nov-12Ja

n-13

Mar-1

3

May-13

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Foreclosure Starts (Default or Auction) Foreclosure Completions (REO)

NEW STATE LAWS INCREASE FORECLOSURE TIMELINES


AVERAGE DAYS TO FORECLOSE


WHERE FORECLOSURE STARTS ARE REBOUNDING - UPDATE


POTENTIAL REOS DRAINED BY SINGLE FAMILY BUYING SPREE


POTENTIAL REOS DRAINED BY SINGLE FAMILY BUYING SPREE


RENTAL ROI STILL GOOD IN MANY MARKETS


MARKETS WITH BEST RATES OF RETURN ON SF RENTALS


DISTRESSED SALES MOVING FURTHER UPSTREAM


Default Jun-13597030

45%

Auction Jun-13 227,262

17%

REO Jun-13

511,802 38%

U.S. FORECLOSURE INVENTORY – REO OPPORTUNITIES - JUNE 2013


85% of REOs are NOT Listed for Sale

80% of Defaults and Auctions not yet listed for

sale

UNDERWATER BORROWERS – 26% OF ALL LOANS


UNDERWATER LOANS BY STATE


UNDERWATER UNIVERSE SHRINKING


1.5 million fewer underwater in last year

THE PROBLEM & OPPORTUNITY OF ZOMBIE FORECLOSURES


THE PROBLEM & OPPORTUNITY OF ZOMBIE FORECLOSURES


A CALIFORNIA OVERVIEW



CALIFORNIA FORECLOSURE TREND GRAPH – (2005 – 2013)


CALIFORNIA FORECLOSURE TREND GRAPH – (MAY 2012 – MAY 2013)


INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS RETREAT FROM CALIFORNIA


WHERE THE APPETITE IS THE BIGGEST


HIGH DESERT OVERVIEW - LANCASTER



LANCASTER – FORECLOSURE TRENDS – MARKET SUMMARY


LANCASTER – FORECLOSURE RATE


LANCASTER – FORECLOSURE STATUS DISTRIBUTION


LANCASTER – FORECLOSURE FILINGS


LANCASTER – FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY – (AUG. 2012 – JUNE 2013)


LANCASTER – GEOGRAPHICAL COMPARISON


HIGH DESERT OVERVIEW - PALMDALE



PALMDALE – FORECLOSURE TRENDS


PALMDALE – FORECLOSURE RATE


PALMDALE – FORECLOSURE STATUS DISTRIBUTION


PALMDALE – FORECLOSURE FILINGS


PALMDALE – FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY – (AUG. 2012 – JUNE 2013)


PALMDALE – GEOGRAPHICAL COMPARISON


HIGH DESERT OVERVIEW - VICTORVILLE



VICTORVILLE – FORECLOSURE TRENDS


VICTORVILLE – FORECLOSURE RATE


VICTORVILLE – FORECLOSURE STATUS DISTRIBUTION


VICTORVILLE – FORECLOSURE FILINGS


VICTORVILLE – FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY – (AUG. 2012 – JUNE 2013)


VICTORVILLE – GEOGRAPHICAL COMPARISON


HIGH DESERT OVERVIEW - BARSTOW



BARSTOW – FORECLOSURE TRENDS


BARSTOW – FORECLOSURE RATE


BARSTOW – FORECLOSURE STATUS DISTRIBUTION


BARSTOW – FORECLOSURE FILINGS


INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS RETREAT FROM THE HIGH DESERT


HIGH DESERT MEDIAN HOME PRICES – (2000 – 2013)


H.D.R.I.N. - SPECIAL REALTYTRAC DISCOUNTS


OCTAVIO [email protected]


THANK YOU!

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California’s high desert real estate market (hdrein webinar) july 2013 - final (3)