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Presentación elaborada por el Dr. Hernán Galperín para la conferencia TPRC, realizada el 27 de septiembre de 2013 en Washington DC.
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> BROADBAND AND DEVELOPMENT: EVIDENCE AND NEW RESEARCH DIRECTIONS FROM LATIN AMERICA
HERNAN GALPERIN, PH.D.
Associate Professor, Universidad de San AndrésDiálogo Regional sobre la Sociedad de la Información (DIRSI)
September 26, 2013
Telecommunications Policy Research Conference, September 27, 2013
> PUBLIC INVESTMENT ON BROADBAND INITIATIVES IS ON THE RISE IN LATAM, SOME ARE VERY SIGNIFICANT (UP TO 0.78% OF GDP)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0
5
10
15
20
25Countries with National Broadband
Plan (2012) ARGENTINA BRAZIL COLOMBIA
NAME OF INITIATIVE
Argentina Conectada
Plano Nacional de Banda Larga (PNBL)
Vive Digital
GEOGRAPHICAL TARGET
100% municipalities
76% municipalities
62% municipalities
PRICE/QUALITY TARGET
10Mbps1Mbps at US$ 20 per month
1Mbps
TOTAL INVESTMENT
$1.8 billion USD$3.25 billion USD
$2.25 billion USD
TOTAL PER CAPITA
$44.2 USD $16.6 USD $48.6 USD
TOTAL AS % GDP
0.4% 0.13% 0.78%
DURATION 2011-2015 2010-2014 2010-2014
> Source: ITU/CISCO (2013)
> INVESTMENTS IN ICT FOR EDUCATION PROGRAMS ARE EQUALLY SIGNIFICANT (UP TO 10% OF TOTAL EDUCATION EXPENDITURE)
> Source: UNESCO
ARGENTINA BRAZIL URUGUAY
NAME OF INITIATIVE
Conectar Igualdad
Programa Banda Larga nas Escolas
Plan Ceibal
TARGET SecondaryPrimary and secondary
Primary and secondary
CONNECTIVITY No Yes Yes
EQUIPMENT Yes (laptop) No Yes (OLPC)
TOTAL ANNUAL
INVESTMENT~700M USD n/a ~50M USD
TOTAL AS % EDUCATION
EXPENDITURE10% n/a 5%
YEAR STARTED 2010 2010 2008
Primary Secondary
05
101520253035404550
Countries with ICT in Education programs
Does the evidence about positive impacts support these public investments?
How are benefits being appropriated? How large are impact externalities? What is the distributional impact?
How cost-effective are these programs? How to improve program design and implementation?
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> PROJECT MOTIVATION: RECENT PUBLIC INVESTMENTS IN BROADBAND RAISE QUESTIONS ABOUT DEVELOPMENT IMPACT
> THE OPTIMISTIC PERSPECTIVE: BROADBAND AVAILABILITY AND ADOPTION BOOST EMPLOYMENT AND ACCELERATE GDP GROWTH
AUTHOR(S) DATA METHODOLOGY RESULTS
QIANG AND ROSSOTTO (2009)
120 countries, 1980-2006.
OLS10 p.p. increase in broadband yields an additional
1.38 p.p. of GDP growth.
KOUTROUMPIS (2009)22 OECD countries, 2002–
2007.
Simultaneous equations model and
instrumental variables.
A 10% increase in broadband increases GDP growth by an average of 0.25%
CZERNICH ET AL. (2011).
25 OECD countries, 1996-2007.
Instrumental variables.
A 10 p.p. increase in broadband raises annual per-capita growth by 0.9-1.5 p.p.
LEHR ET AL. (2006). ZIP codes and states (US),
1998–2002.OLS
Broadband availability increases employment by 1.5% and businesses by 0.5%. No effect on wages.
CRANDALL, R. ET AL. (2007).
States (USA), 2003-2005. OLS
A 10% increase in the penetration rate increases employment by 2%. No effect on GDP growth.
> SOME CAVEATS ABOUT THE (OVERLY) OPTIMISTIC PERSPECTIVE
Causal attribution is problematic reverse causality needs to be addressed in study design.
Aggregated data at country or state level small samples, difficult to find appropriate controls.
Little conceptualization about underlying mechanisms through which broadband affects development opening the black box.
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Some recent studies are less optimistic (e.g., Mayo and Wallsten, 2011; Forman et al., 2012).>
> PROJECT OVERVIEW
Six quasi-experimental studies based on existing microdata.
> Counterfactuals in order to address reverse causality problem.> Very large samples: ability to test for heterogeneous impacts, external validity (unlike RCT).
Qualitative study in low-income communities in Mexico to validate results and get in-depth perspective on impact mechanisms.
Extensive lit review about microfoundations of the link between broadband and development
> Focus on poverty alleviation
>1>2>3
> THREE CASE STUDIES LOOKING AT BROADBAND IMPACT ON GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT
CASE STUDYCOUNTR
YDATA SOURCES METHODOLOGY
INTERNET AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN COLOMBIA : AN ANALYSIS AT THE LEVEL OF
MUNICIPALITIES AND 23 MAJOR CITIES.
Colombia
Panel of municipalities (2005-2011).
Number of observations:
5,000 municipalities.
Annual household survey from DANE and
deployment information from by Ministry of ICT.
Panel data with random effects and instrumental
variable.
IMPACT OF BROADBAND DEPLOYMENT IN ECUADOR.
Ecuador
Panel of individuals in urban areas 2009-2011.
Number of observations:
24,000 individuals.
National Household Survey and deployment
data from Ministry.Difference-in-difference.
THE WELFARE IMPACT OF BROADBAND IN MEXICO.
MexicoNumber of observations:
7,000.National household survey from INEGI.
Structural equation models.
> THREE CASE STUDIES LOOKING AT BROADBAND IMPACT ON SCHOOL PERFORMANCE
CASE STUDYCOUNTR
YDATA SOURCES METHODOLOGY
CONNECTED TO LEARN?THE EFFECT OF BROADBAND
INTERNET ON SCHOOL QUALITY IN BRAZIL.
Brazil
Panel data of students and teachers 2007-2011.
Number of observations:
between 83,000 and 124,000.
School census and test scores (Prova Brasil)
fromMinistry of Education.
Administrative data for PBLE from ANATEL.
Regression models that exploit the phase-in of the
program.
CAN INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION
TECHNOLOGIES (ICTS) HAVE A POSITIVE IMPACT ON STUDENT
PERFORMANCE? EVIDENCE FROM CHILE.
Chile
Two cohorts of primary-level students in public schools (2005-2011).
Number of observations:
between 110,000 and 133,000.
Test scores (SIMCE) and information about
ENLACES program from Ministry of Education.
Difference-in-difference with matching.
INTERNET ACCESS, TYPE OF ACCESS AND EDUCATIONAL
OUTCOMES: EVIDENCE FOR THE PERUVIAN CASE.
Peru
Panel data of students at school level (2007-2011).
Number of observations:
10,000.
School Census and test scores data from
Ministry of Education.
Difference-in-difference with matching.
More information:www.dirsi.net