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With the expected Eskom increases over the next five years, retail service stations are facing reduced profitability and some even closure as profits are continually eroded by rising operating costs. Electricity is one of the costs that can be managed and self generated. This conference aims to examine best practices in energy efficiency and unpack the options and complexities of generating electricity from renewable energy specifically for retail fuel sites.
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The Need for a Risk Management Plan to Ensure Business Continuity
9 May 2013
Bradley Janse van RensburgSolutions Design Manager
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What is Risk Management?
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What is Risk Management… Really?
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Risk Management Matrix
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Risk Management and Business Continuity Management (BCM)
Incident
Situation that might be, or could lead to, a business disruption, loss, emergency or crisis
Example BCM incidents :
Mass riot Bomb (scare) / fire Pandemic Other examples....
Type of incident being BCM incident is based on various factors such as maturity of organization, geographical location
We’re dealing with anomalies – BCM is in place to make sure we can cope with those high impact, low probability incidents or crises
BCMIncidents
Business as Usual Incidents
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Benefits of BCM and Resilience
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Benefits of BCM and Resilience
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Risk Management Example
NB: Cost increases are Eskom increases only, most service stations would purchase electricity from the Municipalities, which may be higher
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Eskom Tariff Increases (2008 – 2018)
Year Increase Cumulative (2008)
R1 equivalent (2008)
Cumulative (2012)
R1 equivalent
(2012)
2008 5.9% 0% R 1.00 - -2009 27.5% 28% R 1.28 - -2010 31.3% 67% R 1.67 - -2011 24.8% 109% R 2.09 - -2012 25.8% 163% R 2.63 0% R 1.002013 8.0% 184% R 2.84 8% R 1.082014 8.0% 207% R 3.07 17% R 1.172015 8.0% 231% R 3.31 26% R 1.262016 8.0% 258% R 3.58 36% R 1.362017 8.0% 286% R 3.86 47% R 1.472018 8.0% 317% R 4.17 59% R 1.59
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South Africa Population Growth
Year PopulationIncreas
e
1996 40,585,568 -
2001 44,819,777 10.40%
2007 48,502,063 8.20%
2011 51,770,560 6.70%
2015 52,015,000 2.50%
2020 52,971,000 1.80%
2025 53,565,000 1.10%
NB: Dependent on continued maintenance of HIV/AIDS and immigration management
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South Africa Economic Growth
Year GDP Growth1993 3.83%1994 4.03%1995 1.60%1996 5.30%1997 1.28%1998 0.30%1999 3.95%2000 3.93%2001 2.20%2002 4.38%2003 2.55%2004 5.88%2005 4.73%2006 5.75%2007 5.15%2008 1.88%2009 -0.95%2010 3.60%2011 2.60%2012 2.28%
Average GDP Growth Rate based on quarterly annualised rates
Year GDP Growth2013 2.7%2014 3.5%2015 3.8%
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South Africa Economic Growth
Source: PWC Publication (2013)Dealing with disruption: Adapting to survive and thrive
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Macro-Economic and Global Trends
Source: KPMG Publication (2012)Expect the Unexpected: Building business value in a changing world
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Macro-Economic and Global Trends
Important Trend 1Energy &
Fuel
Energy & Fuel: fossil fuel markets are likely to become more volatile and unpredictable because of higher global energy demand; changes in the geographical pattern of consumption; supply and production uncertainties; and increasing regulatory interventions related to climate change.
Source: KPMG Publication (2012)Expect the Unexpected: Building business value in a changing world
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Macro-Economic and Global Trends
Important Trend 2Wealth
Wealth: the global middle class (defined by the OECD as individuals with disposable income of between US$10 and US$100 per capita per day)4 is predicted to grow 172 percent between 2010 and 2030.5 The challenge for businesses is to serve this new middle class market at a time when resources are likely to be scarcer and more price-volatile. The advantages many companies experienced in the last two decades from “cheap labor” in developing nations are likely to be eroded by the growth and power of the global middle class.
Source: KPMG Publication (2012)Expect the Unexpected: Building business value in a changing world
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Macro-Economic and Global Trends
Important Trend 3Urbanizatio
n Urbanization: in 2009, for the first time ever, more people lived in cities than in the countryside.6 By 2030 all developing regions including Asia and Africa are expected to have the majority of their inhabitants living in urban areas;7 virtually all Population Growth over the next 30 years will be in cities. These cities will require extensive improvements in infrastructure including construction, water and sanitation, electricity, waste, transport, health, public safety and internet and cell phone connectivity.
Source: KPMG Publication (2012)Expect the Unexpected: Building business value in a changing world
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Bradley Janse van RensburgSolutions Design Manager
+27 11 554 8132+27 83 415 [email protected]
Unit 5, Growthpoint Park Business ParkCnr. Tonnetti & Old Pretoria RoadMidrandwww.continuitysa.com
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