January 2014 Inflation Rate

& 2013 Economic Growth

February 26, 2014IT-VET, Belize City

Outline

• Presentation of Results–January 2014 Inflation Rate–2013 Economic Growth

• Questions and Comments

INFLATION

January 2014 Inflation Rate

• There was a continuation of the upward trend in prices that started around August 2013.

• Consumer prices increased by an average of 1.8 percent between January 2013 and January 2014.

• Food and transportation prices were the main contributors, recording hikes of 4% and 5%, respectively.

GDP

Introduction

• The Statistical Institute of Belize initiated the estimation of quarterly GDP (QGDP) growth rates in 2004, and began publication in 2006.

• Main purpose was to provide timely information to government, businesses and the general public on the growth performance of the economy.

• Growth estimates are based on production data and economic activity indicators compiled for ten sectors of the economy.

– Examples• Agriculture – sugarcane, banana, citrus• Construction – building cement imports• Manufacturing - sugar, citrus concentrate, beer, flour,• Government – wages and salaries• Wholesale & retail distribution – imports & sales tax

• The quarterly rate of growth is calculated by dividing production for one quarter by production for the same quarter of the previous year.

• Example 120 /100 = 20%

• A weighted average of the growth rates is used to obtain an overall rate of growth

• Considering the QGDP estimates are based on only some of the goods and services included in the generation of the annual GDP estimates, the two procedures yield different results.

• The difference is reconciled through a benchmarking process

WHAT IS THE GROWTH NEWS FOR 2013?

Fishing

• With recovery of approximately 28 percent, Fishing was the single largest contributor to 2013 growth performance.

• Reopening of Belize Aquaculture Limited boosted farm shrimp production, causing exports receipts of that commodity to increase by 81 percent to $52 million.

Construction

• Second consecutive year of double-digit growth

• Significant boost in public infrastructure projects

Services

• Strongest performers were:– Wholesale and Retail distribution– Government– Hotel and Restaurant Services

• Growth of between 4 percent and 6 percent

Manufacturing and Mining

• Manufacturing fell by 12 percent, largely because of falls in sugar and citrus concentrate production; only increase was in soft drinks.

• Crude oil production fell for a fourth consecutive year to 2,200 barrels per day due to depletion of reserves

Agriculture

• Down by 13 percent.

• Modest decrease in banana output due to inclement weather

• Significant falls in sugarcane and citrus harvest– Sugarcane: partly due to delayed start of current

crop season– Citrus: Effects of bumper crop in 2012 and Citrus

Greening Disease

THANK YOU!

QUESTIONS OR

COMMENTS